thependulumswings

Just seven shopping days are left till Christmas.  Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, and Cyber Monday have come and gone.  Like the retail industry, the NFL has labels for its events too.  There is Thursday Night Football, Monday Night Football, Super Bowl Sunday, The Scouting Combines, and Pro Workout Day to name but some.

But there is one day that the NFL doesn’t want labeled nor do they promote it.  There are just 13 days left till beleaguered teams officially start shopping for new head coaches.  Unofficially it’s called Black Monday.  It’s always the Monday after the regular season ends the day prior.  This year it falls on New Year’s Eve.  But, you can’t shop for a new coach till you fire the old coach.

Those owners (Cleveland and Green Bay) that have fired their head coach in season are joined by those that will on 12/31 in the search for who they hope will turn into the next great head coach.  For now they can make a shopping list and their GM’s can check it twice.  On 12/31 we will find out which teams decided to put a lump of coal in their coaches’ socks.  Rest assured some fates are sealed already and the proverbial string is being played out.   Some are hanging by a thread pending season ending meetings.  You can always count on one or two that you didn’t see coming.

Conversely some are quite stable.  Others are safe as they have just begun their stint with their current team.  Rome and the Buffalo Bills weren’t built in a day don’t you know?.  Finally, some are safe due to the frugality of their owners who prefer counting money to winning Super Bowls.

So, who’s in? Who’s out?  We’ll give you our take on all 32 teams and their head coaches over the next four days.  Here, in alphabetical order, are the first eight.

Arizona Cardinals, Steve Wilks – It’s year one for him.  This team is bad.  It really needs to get worse to get better.  Sell the assets and compile the draft picks.  He’s underwhelming.  If we were grading would give him an “I” for incomplete (like many Josh Rosen passes).  But, he’s safe.

Atlanta Falcons, Dan Quinn– This is Quinn’s first HC job.  It started off quite well and has been fading ever since they blew a 28-3 Super Bowl lead to New England after their stellar 2016 season.  Something isn’t right with this team.  That said you could see patient Arthur Blank giving him another year.  Arthur believes in his people to a fault as you may remember.   That said we see him ringing in 2019 jobless.

Baltimore Ravens, John Harbaugh– The whispers started several weeks back. “It’s time.”  Etc.  But this team is in line for a seventh playoff berth under his tenure.  He’s also 101 games and a Super Bowl here.  This would be a surprise.  He should be back if he wishes and we think he wishes.

Buffalo Bills, Sean McDermott– It’s hard to believe that this disorganized organization made a rare playoff appearance last year.  He’s 14-15 with year two almost in the books.  Personnel wise they are in the lower quartile of the league and their front office is in the bottom 10 percent.  No decision(Josh Allen anyone?) would shock anyone coming out of this hot garbage.   Sean stays for one more year.

Carolina Panthers, Ron Rivera–  He’s been to a Super Bowl, been AP Coach of the Year twice, been to four playoff births, and won 57% of the games he has led this team onto the field.  Meanwhile they seem to be limping to the close of 2018.  He’s done well, but we think he’s done in Charlotte.  He could easily be on other team’s short list to fill their vacancy if Carolina goes shopping.  One final note-new ownership in the last 6 months might want a new start as well.

Cleveland Browns, Gregg Williams (interim)–  Five games in as a midseason replacement for terminated Hue Jackson, feisty Gregg Williams is a quite respectable 4-2 in his audition. Cleveland leadership has promised Williams that he will get a fair shot in their replacement search.  The previous sentence used “Cleveland” and “leadership” in the same sentence.  We regret that nonsensical error.   Cleveland leads the NFL in bad hires, bad drafts, and bad ownership.  They have exactly zero playoff appearances since their NFL rebirth in 1999.  Count on a comical search for a new coach with comical results.

Chicago Bears, Matt Nagy– Year one has gone quite well for this first time head coach.  It’s gone so well that he might be Coach of the Year and the Bears might run deep in the playoffs.  The front office has built through the draft in an impressive fashion.  Nagy is obviously quite safe.

Cincinnati Bengals, Marvin Lewis–  Lewis has been at the helm in the Queen City since 2003.  Only Queen Elizabeth and Bill Belicheck, hired in 2000, have more years with their current team.  The comparison between the two should stop there however.  Lewis has been written off by many in years gone by.  With no playoff in sight this year it’s time for him to go bye-bye.  Sometimes it’s just time.  Sometimes its past time.  However, the Bengals are frugal and that’s being kind.  His contract is valid thru the close of 2019.  However, the guess here is that he’s gone.

So far that’s four gone and four not.  In the four-part series we’ll discuss another eight teams tomorrow.

We’ll also check in when the dust settles to review our predictions.  Let us know how you see it as well.