thependulumswings

Are you ready for some Thursday Night Football?  The 0-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Charlotte to face the 0-1 Carolina Panthers this evening.  ” Ho hum,” you say?  Understood.

The teams battle a quick four days after season opening losses.  And both teams lost at home to teams who traveled to time zones from the west to beat them.  The LA Rams beat Carolina 30-27, while the SF 49ers left the Tampa Bay area with a 31-17 victory.

If you’re underwhelmed imagine if you are a fan of one of the two staring 0-2 in the face five days after the season opened.  And, this game is a division game which carries added importance.   “One and one” sounds ok.  “Oh and two” sounds early season dreadful.

And, eight times out of nine, season long dreadful it is.  Since 2007, 91 teams have started 0-2.  Only 10 of them (10.9 percent) have turned the sluggish start around and made the playoffs.   One of those (the 2008 Chargers) made it with an 8-8 record. The Saints last season, the Dolphins in 2016, the Texans and Seahawks in 2015, the Colts from 2014, the 2013 Panthers, the Dolphins, Chargers and Vikings in 2008, and the 2007 Giants are the only others.  And, of course, that Giants team won the Super Bowl that season.

Carolina missed the playoffs in 2018 with a 7-9 record.  Tampa Bay has not been to the playoffs since 2007.  TB has finished last in the NFC South in seven of the last eight woeful years.

In the NFL you don’t need to look too much further than quarterback play to figure out who is ascending in the league and who has hit bottom.  For Carolina good, but inconsistent quarterbacking by Cam Newton tells most of the story.  Tonight he starts his 125th game as a pro.  He’s won 68, lost 54, and tied 1.  His career qb rating is 86.3.  Seventeen active QB’s with more than 50 starts rank higher.  In his defense his surrounding offensive cast hasn’t always been the best.  However, the Carolina defense has usually been between good and very good.  Cam is a sneaky 30, but in the QB friendly league that the NFL has become, he’s still got time to write better chapters in his story.  It’s time to start.

The Jameis Winston story, however, is another story.  Winston starts game 56 of his career tonight.  His record is a dreadful 21-24.  Winston’s QB rating is a shade higher than Newton’s at 87.0.   Fifteen active QB’s with more than 50 starts rank higher.   He played one year under Lovie Smith and three under recently fired Dirk Koetter.  Supposed QB whisperer Bruce Ariens now takes the helm.   Stability in the TB coaching has been wanting.  Also, in his defense his team’s defensive cast hasn’t been good.  However, the weapons around Winston have been solid, and sometimes border very good.  Four seasons in plus game one of five,and only 25 years old, he has plenty of time to write better chapters in his story.  Like Cam, it’s time to start.  Past time really.  Winston’s not looked at around the league as a leader, and his maturity has been questioned.  And “been questioned” is being nice.

Remember, “oh and two” means you sit home in January eight times of nine.  It might be week two, but this underwhelming match up could be a pivot point for both franchises.

On May 16, 2018, David Tepper, formerly a minority owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers, finalized an agreement to purchase the Panthers. The sale price was nearly $2.3 billion, a record.  Ron Rivera has been head coach for them since 2010.  You don’t shell out 2.3 billion for average.  If you miss the playoff this year does Ron go?  Cam’s deal is through 2020.  A new coach would have a year to work with him.

For Tampa, Ariens either fixes Winston this year, or not.  If not, Winston is likely out.  His contract expires after this season.

For a “ho hum” game, played just five days into the season, more is on the line than might normally meet the eye.

Which QB will pass the ball and the eyeball test best?

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