thependulumswings

It seems pretty clear now, doesn’t it?

After 8-0 became 9-0 on the contested 100 yards of Tuscaloosa grass, Joe Burrow stood tall.  Burrow just finished his work day with 31-39 passing for 391 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions.  LSU finally slayed the Bama dragon/elephant.  Joe’s awfully handy with a sword.  The largest daytime viewership of CBS football in many years, 16 million in all, saw the Game of the Century, Part II.

After the exhausting, four hour bout Saturday LSU’s football team stood shoulder to shoulder in the corner of the end zone facing the band and the LSU fans, and belted out the fight song and the alma mater.  And, after the singing was done nose tackle Tyler Shelvin, a svelte 350 lbs, lifted one Joe Burrow, a svelte 215 lbs onto his left shoulder all by himself.  He carried him off of the field.

There still is work to be done.  And, after three more regular season games that LSU is hoping will be wins, there is the not so small matter of the SEC Championship Game. And after that, Joe Burrow will fly to New York.  First Tyler carried Joe.  Soon Joe is going to carry the Heisman.  Start spreading the news, the Heisman Trophy is Joe Burrow’s, aka Jeaux Burreaux’s, to lose.

But did you see this coming?  No, you didn’t.  But one astute observer of football and very astute observer of LSU football did.  “I saw a path,” Matt Porter said.  That was back in early June of this year a full three months before the first football was kicked or picked off.  You may have already heard of his story, but post the Alabama game it was time to check in again.

“I was putzing around on an LSU website, maybe 24/7, and saw a thread about Heisman possibilities.  I decided to look at my online site.  I scrolled down to Joe.  It showed Burrow at 200-1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy.  I thought it was a typo.  Why would a returning quarterback on a big team have such odds?  I thought that maybe it should be 20-1.  I instantly said, ‘I’ll put $50 on that right now, tremendous value.’ ” It was a chance to turn $50 in to $10,000.

Matt Porter is one of us.  He’s a successful Florida based Commercial Finance Broker by day.  By weekend he’s a real fan with hopes and passion for NCAA football. The enthusiasm pours out as his words tell the story.  “It’s my only bet on who will win the Heisman ever!”

As word spread in August like the Baton Rouge humidity that LSU indeed was running some spread offense, the site had dropped it’s odds to around 35-1.  Shorty thereafter his site offered him $1096 to take the prescient now, but not yet as much then, bet off of his hands.  That’s a 21x return on your investment before the first first down of the first game.  That’s good work if you can get it. “I didn’t even know that there was a place on my site for offers to cash out bets.  I do now.”

Game one came and went.  After LSU bounced Texas in Austin 45-38 the offer crept up to $1375.  Game three was a blowout and Burrow’s statistics were as well.   “They raised the offer up to almost $1800.”  In game four Burrow’s stats were downright uncivil to host Vanderbilt.  But, a bye week followed.  “I got no offer during the bye week.  Hmm.”

After Utah St. got worked in BR by a one sided 42-6 score and Burrow “out dueled Jordan Love” they went back down to $1100. “How can they go backwards?” he wondered.  ” I thought maybe it was some gamesmanship and it was just before Florida which might be a pretty staunch test.”  It was supposed to be but Burrow went 21-24 for 293 yards with 3 td’s and no picks.  Staunch met grit.  Grit won.  “The offer went to a then high of $1900.”

“At this point I was really playing it out in my head and I imagined just before Bama would be my best offer.  And, after seeing what he was doing I wanted to hold at least until then,” Matt added.  Mississippi St. was road kill.  Then, another big test loomed.  Auburn and it’s NFL quality DL were headed to Death Valley.  “The offer reached a season high before that game of like $3865 or $3876, or something like that.”  Another test passed and a tough one.

Then?  “Then nothing.”  I haven’t received any other offer since before that game to date.”  What happened?  “I think they think ‘why give me an out now?’  It’s their chance to get into a position of strength.”  That’s poker parlance from the prescient one.   “Maybe I’ll see one last offer before the last game with A&M.”

Why has he been so, so, so confident all along?  “I surmised all along that Hurts had no chance.  It would be 3x in a row for Oklahoma and a transfer QB.  They wouldn’t give Jordan 3x MVP’s in a row.  The press was fatigued and looking for another story.  I figured It would come down to Burrow v. Tua.  I got an assist when Chase Young became a story in the Midwest that would water down the Justin Fields story, too.”

Matt went on.  “It’s a popularity contest.  Burrow is cool in front of the camera.  He’s confident and likable.  He’s comfortable in his own skin.”  Can they entice you still?  “No offer is good enough now.  I’ll now ride it out.”

Matt has no plans to head to NY assuming all goes well and Burrow is able to get to the finish line.  “No, no plans to geaux.”  What about if SI or ESPN picks up your story again and gets you there and a seat in the Downtown Athletic Club for the presentation?  “Oh yea.  I’ll be there!”

With such foresight one wondered if he has any other clear long term visions.  “I did put a small amount on Kamala Harris to win the Democratic nomination.”  It’s at 80-1.  “But I’m starting to think I should have put my bet on Pete Buttigieg.  Who would have thought that he would get this far, and there is still a long time to go.”

Laugh if you wish.  Once there was a long way to go for a backup redshirt junior Ohio St University quarterback.  He transferred to LSU.   The book isn’t finished yet.  But, what has been written is inspiring.  You had to have vision to see this potential ending.  Matt Porter did.  Soon he might be $10,000 better off because of it.