thependulumswings

Today either marks the end of the wildest and whackiest four years in Washington D.C. or it begins the second and final four years of likely the same.  We have a few observations and a few points to ponder.

1.  No one outworks The Donald.  His campaign stops (rallies) in the last 10 days have been far, wide, and far too numerous to count.  At the age of 73, he ended his last one last evening in Grand Rapids, MI at about 11:45 pm.  After an Air Force One ride back to D.C. he tucked himself into bed at 4:00 AM.  He’s already yapping this AM on Fox and Friends.
2. The Biden campaign, or more accurately the strategy to minimize it, is the oddest in this writer’s 60-year memory.  And, second place isn’t close.  Trump in 2016 was unconventional.  Biden in 2020 was unseen.  Having a few cars show up while you pontificate into a microphone on a stage is, well, weird.  When he asks them to blow their horns if they agree is, well, very weird.  Could the contrast between the Trump rallies and the Biden hornblowers be more overt?
3. Crystal clearly the DNC’s strategy has been to minimize Biden’s gaffes/weaknesses all the while consistently pounding on Trump.  It was the plan since the day he took office.  It will be written about for years to come.  And, it may very well succeed.  Trump’s words, more than his actions, around the COVID pandemic played right into the DNC playbook.
4. Do people really understand that if Biden is elected, Harris could be President in the very near future?  All jokes Biden jokes aside, it’s a very real possibility, isn’t it?  Maybe that’s ok with the “get Trump out at all costs,” or “anyone is better than what we have” crowd.
5. Polls can tell you almost any story you want to hear if you dig deep enough into the numbers behind the numbers.  No matter the side you favor, the results will be fascinating.  How many of the “silent majority” chose only to be heard today?  How many first time voters were there?
6. It would be a major surprise if Trump won the popular vote.  He lost it by 3 million four years ago.  But, elections are determined by electoral college votes.  And that sets up major announcements tonight as state by state results roll in.
7. It seems that Pennsylvania is the lynchpin.  Both camps have spent a lot of time there recently.  The path or paths to victory are for either side tighten dramatically with a loss there.  It’s not for his health that Biden is stopping in Scranton and Philly today on Election Day.
8. Put California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Oregon, and Washington in the Biden win column.  They are done deals and won’t be close.  That means Trump needs the obvious three of Texas, Florida, and Ohio.  If any of those three go blue Trump goes home to Mar-a-Lago, not Pennsylvania Ave.
9.  Trump could win without Penn, but it’s very uphill.  He’d need the entire rust belt to fall his way.  And, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina are toss ups to boot.
10.  Businesses in many major cities are boarding up then closing up early today for fear of civil unrest (read that as peaceful protests) in the streets this evening.  The White House is getting a scale proof fence surrounding it finished up early this AM.  Is anyone concerned what the populous might do if Biden wins?  Of course not.  It’s all about the hate for Donald J. Trump.  It has been since day one.

Get your popcorn ready.

And, buckle up.  It’s going to be a wild ride.

2020.