thependulumswings

Question.  Is the political pendulum swinging again?  Answer.  The political pendulum is always swinging.  It’s just a matter of its direction.

Overlooked to some degree in the furor surrounding the defeat of Trump and the Senate runoffs was the ground that the Republicans gained as the 117th Congress (January 2021) took their seats in the House of Representatives.

For the two years prior, the Democrats controlled the House with a 233 to 196 margin after a midterm storm.  As it stands today the majority Democrats outnumber the Republicans by a considerably slimmer 218 to 212 count.

It should be noted that the totals seemingly always are in a slight state of flux due to resignations, seats being vacated, and even deaths.  

“They” say all politics is local.  “They” might be right.  Or, at least they might be leaning right as the race for the House will heat up again and sooner than you might imagine.  Four months of 24 have already passed.

The Census results released last Monday show that seven states will lose seats while six will gain. Texas will add two seats and Florida one. The fast-growing states of Montana and Oregon will each add one seat, as will Colorado and North Carolina.

Montana’s second seat comes after 30 years of having just a single at-large district.  Why suddenly are so many people moving there?  You know why.

At the same time, the big states of the Midwest and Northeast that historically have backed Democrats will lose congressional seats and the electoral votes that come with them. Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia will each lose one district. California’s loss of one seat reflects the slowing population growth of the nation’s largest state.

But, staying with the local theme, it may go deeper than the above states plusses or minuses.  It may go all the way down to the much-debated southern border.

South Texas Hispanic females are leading the charge to turn the Democrat stronghold of the Rio Grande Valley red.  How crazy does that sound considering the overheated rhetoric surrounding immigration both legal and otherwise in that region?

In 2016 Hillary Clinton lost elsewhere but captured the region by a whopping 39% points.  In 2020 Joseph Biden won elsewhere but his victory margin in the same district was but 15%.  The local pendulum might be moving against the Democrats in areas they have incessantly appealed (some might say pandered) to.

Chair of the Hidalgo County Republican Party and daughter of a Democratic state legislator Adrienne Pena-Garza is one example. She told the NY Times the Democrat Party has gone too far left on gun control and abortion.

Said Pena-Garza. “If someone’s going to tell you: ‘Oh, you’re brown, you have to be Democrat,’ or ‘Oh, you’re female, you have to be a Democrat’ — well, who are you to tell me who I should vote for and who I shouldn’t?”

Pena-Garza explained to the Times she was a victim of identity politics. “You can’t shame me or bully me into voting for a party just because that’s the way it’s always been,” she said.

The Times also spoke with Jessica Villarreal, a military service member who voted periodically before now pondering a campaign for elected office.

“There are more of us who realize our beliefs are Republican, no matter what we’ve been told in the past,” Villarreal told the Times. “I am a believer in God and the American dream, and I believe the Republican Party represents that.”

The Democratic Party poured big, big bucks into the state in last year’s elections.  The result?  Texas went ten for ten in reelecting sitting Republican Congressmen.  Ouch.  Now add two more seats.

That much bandied about, so-called Texas blue wave might just be a red tide after all.  And, it sounds like the brown community might have its crayons out to help color it that way.

The pendulum never comes to rest.