thependulumswings

The question is a simple one.  The answer is not.

Can the 45th President, Donald J. Trump, become the 47th President of the United States?

In 2016 it helped that he wore down a tired, old opponent who represented the swamp.  In 2020 an old, tired opponent who represents the swamp beat him. Now The Donald needs to unseat the man who unseated him.

And, Trump doesn’t like to lose.  In his mind, he never has.

The polls had it wrong in 2016.  The silent majority favored the outsider.  In 2024, the polls that constantly enter your medium of choice seem to favor Trump again.

And, the ones that examine the sitting President Biden conclude that he is an unpopular President that a majority feel is too old or unfit, or both to serve again.  And, boy does he sit a lot, especially when he visits the Delaware beaches each frequent three day weekend.  But, we digress.

Fox News, which used to be fair and balanced, trots out poll after poll showing Biden’s age a factor, the border is the biggest issue, inflation is a close second, his approval rating is lower than Jimmy Carter’s, the world is on fire, etc., and ad nauseam.

It’s over.  It’s a Trump landslide.  Except it isn’t.  It isn’t over, and it won’t be a landslide.

As an example of the hyperbole, more Michigan folks voted for Trump last evening in the Republican primary than all of the Democratic choices (Biden, some tool, and undecided) combined.

In Dearborn, where Biden hasn’t exactly endeared himself to the large Arab American and Muslim communities with his support of Israel, “undecided” beat Biden by 56 to 40 percent.  But, that doesn’t mean that they will show up in 8 months and vote for Trump, does it?

Remember, every vote counts.

A deeper dive will tell you that every vote doesn’t count.   Forty-something states are already decided barring something big changing the voting landscape.

And, when it gets down to the two, the DNC and Biden will launch a multifaceted negative campaign bigger than the daily one they preach now.  In November you have to count the folks that will never vote for Trump.  Are they the 2024 silent majority?

No current poll can accurately predict how many will hold their nose and vote for Biden because they can’t hold their nose and vote for Trump.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona, and maybe Colorado will decide the race.  And it will be a small subset of the voters therein.

Forty-something percent of the voters in those states will vote for Trump.  Forty-something percent of the voters in those states will vote for Biden.  That will leave about 12 percent of the citizens who vote in a handful of states to decide the final electoral college tally.

Trump didn’t want to turn in his bike at the end of the rental term.  Biden falls off of his regularly.

Trump took his classified documents and went home.  Biden already had his.

Trump is headed to the border tomorrow.  Biden is headed to the border tomorrow.

This could get interesting if it wasn’t already.