thependulumswings

When if becomes when the dynamics of a sequence of events can change dramatically as they unfold.   Unexpected final results can happen.  Nothing more unexpected in political history ever happened than when The Donald went from polling at single digits as a Republican hopeful, after first announcing, to being elected President of the United States in November of 2016.

Last night a sure if became a when at 8pm EST when Donald J. Trump officially announced that he was running for his second term as President of the United States.

In 2016 Trump recognized America’s strong desire for change from the status quo.  But a series of events helped his magic carpet ride.

If Bernie Sanders doesn’t gain real traction on the left side of the left, then Hillary Rodham Clinton doesn’t have to steer her train wreck of a campaign into that far lane.  When she did, did she lose some of the moderate Democrats?

If Crazy Bernie doesn’t stay in the race as long as he did, does Hillary have to campaign as hard as she did?  When he did, Hillary was extended to more cities, more speeches, more TV appearances, more bad food, and more planes, trains, and automobiles.  If you couldn’t see fatigue negatively affecting a presidential campaign, when will you?

Enter Joe Biden for President in 2020.  He’ll be 77 this November, and 78 by the time voters head to the polls in November of 2020.  It’s awfully early to pronounce him as the nominee, but he is the front runner by about a lap and a half.

So, what if?  If all of the left that stand to the left of Bernie fall by the wayside, does Bernie get the lion’s share of their votes?  If he does, how far does Bernie go?  Does Bernie know when to say when for the good of his party?  If he goes the distance v. Biden like he did v. Hillary, does fatigue set in for Biden to the extent it did on Hillary?

His few public appearances so far have been less than impressive.  His “I’m running for prez intro speech” was filled with mispronunciations and other verbal stumbles..  His voice trails off often.  His gestures and gait seem tentative.

Trump has already seized on this, relabeling the former “creepy Uncle Joe” as “sleepy Joe.”  Trump’s running against thin air in his own party.  If Biden emerges as the tired nominee, a fresh Trump will go full frontal assault on him.  It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Trump ask for more debates, not less.  It’s usually the other way around as the contender tries to slay the defender and asks for more.  But, there is nothing usual in the world of politics today.

Not if, but when it all unfolds the unexpected probably should be expected.    Meantime, get some sleep Joe.  You are going to need it.