thependulumswings

The NCAA college football season is here.   How about a big Hooray?  HOORAY!  Of course if you watched last weekend’s very abbreviated scheduled head liner, you might have thought it was a head scratcher at best.  Florida outlasted Miami in a mistake filled, sloppy tackling, turnover prone, penalty laden affair.  It was a forgettable game.  So forget it.

Let’s get to our favorite head scratching year long bet.  It’s season long win totals.  Today we begin a three part series that examines our selections on over or under the win totals.   A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, both sides of the bet and it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most.  Let’s kick off with picks we like plenty enough to bet, and ascend in the next 72 hours towards our most favorite ones.

5.  Kansas ( 3 wins, over +130, under -160)

• Pooka (best first name in the FBS) Williams, an All American Freshman last year, was suspended in the off season for domestic abuse.  Shame on him.  Kansas reinstated him after a six month time out just in time for the fall practices and now games.  Shame on them.  But, if you like the over this is why you bet it.  Pooka single handedly kept Kansas in games last year.
• At LSU Les Miles often took more talent onto the field than his opposition.  And, he lost more often with that talent than he should have.  But, he beat Oklahoma two out of his four years at Oklahoma St.  Back then he often took less talent and won over more talent in the Big 12.  Having less talent isn’t a problem for Les this year as he will likely enter 10 of 12 games as a slight to huge underdog.
• Bad news.  The defense has as many as eight new starters.  Good news.  The defense has as many as eight new starters.
• The two games that they will be favored in are the first two of the season as they host Indiana St. and Coastal Carolina.
• Win those two and you need to find two more to win the bet, or one more to at least push. Along the way they host West Virginia (new head coach), Kansas St.(new head coach and rival), and Baylor (not too too good).   We like them to win two of the three in some form or fashion.
• The payout of 10 to win 13 is appealing.

4.  Oregon (9 wins, over +105, under -130)

• Head Coach Mario Cristobal enters year two of his head coaching stint with the Ducks.  We like the upside v. the betting line in year two of coaches that we think are capable of making a leap forward.
• Cristobal was Saban’s offensive line coach and recruiting coordinator for three years at Bama.  The pedigree from his coaching tree is mostly fruitful.  Saban has had way more Jimbo Fisher’s go on to coach other teams than he has had Jim McElwain’s.  If he’s good enough for Ole Nick, he’s good enough for us in a wide open Pac 12.
• The mighty Ducks don’t play a mighty schedule.  Preseason rankings mean little but that won’t stop us from using them to make a point.  Oregon opens v #16 Auburn at a neutral sight this weekend.  The rest of the schedule has three ranked teams, at #13 Washington,  hosting #23 Washington St. and at #25 Stanford.
• At currently unranked Arizona St. in week 10 could be a make or break game for the over bet.  But, beat Auburn, and we are talking about a quantum leap forward, not a leap forward.
• Ten returning starters on offense, led by a potential top draft pick in Justin Herbert makes us lean to the over.   Another seven starters are back on defense.
• The Ducks made a great hire in bringing Avalos over from Boise State.  Cristobal watched Saban salty defense close up in practice every day.  In the PAC 10 a salty defense can go a long way.

Tomorrow we’ll head south for our pick #’s 3 and 2.  We think the two choices above will put your checking account balance heading north.