thependulumswings

As we wrote yesterday, the NCAA college football season is here.   How about a big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s continue today with our favorite year long bet.  It’s season long win totals.  Today we continue a three part series that examines our selections on over or under the win totals.   A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, both sides of the bet and it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most.  Let’s continue with the march to our favorite pick as we ascend the ladder today with picks numbered 3 and 2.

3.  Kentucky (6 and 1/2 wins, over is -130, under is +100)

• There is stability at the HC position with Mark Stoops entering year seven leading the Wildcats.  It hasn’t been that way in the Bluegrass State in a long time. But.
• The stability lost that came with Benny Snell running and All American LB Josh Allen running down ball carriers isn’t easily replaceable.  This is especially true in Lexington.
• Also, the Wildcats must replace 12 starters as they return an SEC fewest 10 starters in 2019.  All four starters in the secondary left or graduated.
• While the out of conference schedule looks tame (Toledo, Eastern Michigan, UT Martin, and Louisville) by name, don’t sleep on the MAC West Toledo squad.  Further, while it’s fun to kick your instate rivals Louisville while they are down, this winner of this late season match up often surprises.  We see 3-1 here.
• While the Wildcats draw lowly Arkansas (home) and Mississippi St. (away) from the SEC West, they still must go 4-4 in the SEC overall if they win but 3 of 4 nonconference games to cover 6.5 wins.
• If you split (likely)the two SEC West opponents, and lose to Georgia, Florida, and Missouri (all likely), can you beat South Carolina there, and Vanderbilt there, and Tennessee at home?

2. Mississippi St. (8 wins, over is +125, under is -155)

• BBR cashed last year on the under bet on Miss St.  It’s rare that we go back to the same well.  But.
• The most important position battle that will take place will be at the quarterback position. Southeastern Conference rushing record holder Nick Fitzgerald has completed his five years of service in Starkville.
• Heading into his junior campaign, Keytaon Thompson is 2-0 as a starter and looks to be the favorite to replace Fitzgerald.  “Looks to be” is different than “is hands down.”  The SEC has several qb’s entering year two and beyond starting for their respective teams.  Year one through this gauntlet will have it’s moments.
• The Bulldogs have talent on D, but lost some elite talent on D as well, particularly up front where it is a must have.  Three of the starting 11 on defense were picked in the 1st round of the 2019 NFL Draft (safety Johnathan Abram, linemen Montez Sweat, and Jeffery Simmons), and there are 7 starters to replace in total, including the entire front 4.  Only Bama reloads a roster that talented on a yearly basis.
• We’ll spot them four wins OOC as that is likely.  Cupcakes abound.  But, to cover the over they need five SEC wins in eight opportunities for a nine win total.
• Home games are Kentucky, LSU, Alabama, and Ole Miss.  That has 2-2 written all over it which means they need to go 3-1 on the SEC road.
• From 9/28 through 11/ 2 they are at Auburn, off, at Tennessee, home for LSU, at Texas A and M, and at Arkansas.  At best those four roadies have 2-2 written all over them as well.  A push is possible then, but a misstep is likely, making under the choice.
• We don’t love the price at minus 155, but we love under 8 as the outcome.

Tomorrow we’ll feature our chosen one (not the Prez) and give you a few random picks as well.