thependulumswings

It seems like a week ago, but it wasn’t.  Some nine weeks ago we wrote the following.

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most. 

And, in short order we took Kansas over, Oregon over, Kentucky under, Mississippi St. under, and Texas A&M over.  Today, with a mere five weeks left to the regular season we decided (actually a favorite reader of ours suggested) to review the first 3 of our 5 picks.   After all if you are going to talk the talk, you better be prepared to walk the walk. Tomorrow we conclude with the final two.

5.  Kansas over 3 wins, bet $100 to win $130, current record 3-5

–  The Jayhawks lost in week 2 to Coastal Carolina.  Jeez.  The bet would be a winner in just eight weeks if they would have taken care of a non FBS opponent at home.  We repeat, “at home.”

–  Head Coach Les Miles fired his OC on 10/6.  He announced that Brent Dearmon had been promoted to the role in place of Les Koenning, who was dismissed from the program. Koenning was part of Miles’ initial Kansas staff this offseason.  The results were immediately positive.  They put 48 on Texas and 37 on Texas Tech in the last two weeks.

– Worst outcome.  Worst case the bet pushes (no money is lost nor won) as they have three wins already.

– Best outcome.  We win the bet with one more victory with four games left.

– Outlook.  With Kansas St., Iowa St., Oklahoma St., and Baylor left the road is uphill.  They’ll likely be underdogs by double digits in all four contests.

– Prediction.  Ole Les Miles, aka The Mad Hatter, pulls one more Jayhawk win out of his hat.  The bet wins $130.

4.  Oregon over 9 wins, bet $100 to win $105, current record 7-1

– The Ducks led until the last seven seconds in the season opener v. Auburn.  It is their lone loss to date.

– The Ducks are in the meat of their schedule but can rely on an above average defense for once in addition to their always productive O.  The road win at Washington two weeks ago was helpful.  They have their sites set on winning out to get into the playoff conversation. That’s good for the wager.

– Worst outcome.  If the Ducks take on water and paddle to a 1-3 or 0-4 finish the bet could still tank.

– Best outcome.  A 3-1 or 4-0 finish makes the ticket a winner.

– Outlook.  Oregon finishes with at USC, home Arizona, at Arizona St, and home Oregon St.  They are favored by 4 1/2 v USC this week.  It’s the toughest game left for them, though an Arizona St. night road battle could be troublesome.  The two home games are wins if they come to play.  Mario Cristobal has had them ready for every game so far.

– Prediction.  A loss to USC and three wins to close out the season makes their record 10-2.   The bet wins $105.

3.  Kentucky under 6 1/2 wins, bet $100 to win $100, current record 4-4

– The Wildcats up and down season was expected as a program like this would struggle to replace what Bennie Snell and Josh Allen brought to the team last year.

– A bad effort and loss to Miss St. was offset by a put down of Missouri this past weekend 29-7.

– Worst outcome.  With three games remaining at home and all four games winnable, the bet crashes and burns.

– Best outcome.  An improving Tennessee team follows up last week’s win with another this week in Kentucky and Vandy at home knocks them off the week thereafter.  That puts them at 6-6 at best.

– Outlook.  After the two games above they host TN-Martin and Louisville.  TN Martin is a win and if they need a win over in state rival Louisville at home to get bowl eligible they might just show their teeth.

– Prediction. – TN Martin gives them 5 wins.  Can they win two of three from Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Louisville?  The Wildcats O struggles to score against good defenses, but we only see one decent D on this four game dance card.  It says here that they win three of the last four to finish 7-5, but we are still quite hopeful that they could finish 6-6.  The bet loses $100.

Tomorrow we’ll review the final two, Mississippi St. under and Texas A&M over.