thependulumswings

It seems like a week ago, but it wasn’t.  Some nine weeks ago we wrote the following.

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  

We’ll list the win total, it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  

And, in short order we took Kansas over, Oregon over, Kentucky under, Mississippi St. under, and Texas A&M over.  Yesterday we updated the first 3 of our 5 picks.  Today, with a mere five weeks left to the regular season we decided (actually a favorite reader of ours suggested yesterday) to review the final 2.   After all if you are going to talk the talk, you better be prepared to walk the walk.

2.  Mississippi St. under 8 wins, bet $155 to win $100, current record 3-5

– After a 3-1 start against two cupcakes and Kentucky, the Bulldogs hit the proverbial wall.  They have lost four in a row as the schedule stiffened.

– Head Coach Joe Moorhead has to be scratching his head.  And, Bulldog alumni must be scratching theirs as well.  And, the mascot must be scratching his………  Dan Mullen took this program to high points not seen around StarkVegas in many moons.  Moorhead is in a tough spot following that act.  The SEC West is tough.  Recruiting to Starkville is tougher.

– Worst outcome.  There is no worst case for the bet unless a tornado hits Starkville (which could cause improvements actually)and cancels a game or a portion thereof nullifying the bet.

– Best outcome.  State finishes all four contests with a win or a loss.  The bet is already a win as the win total maxes out at seven even if State runs the tables.

– Outlook.  With a road trip to Arkansas, a layup (Abilene Christian University-seriously?), a loss to Bama, and an Egg Bowl battle with Ole Miss looming, we smell rotten eggs at 2-2.  A 5-7 record is a win for BBR and a big step back for Moorhead and staff.

– Prediction.  Moorhead gets one more year to right the ship, and the bet has already won $100.

1.Texas A&M over 7 1/2 wins, bet $120 to win $100, current record 5-3

– With arguably the toughest schedule in the nation A&M has won the games they were favored in and lost those that they were underdogs.

– In year two of his iron clad, ten year contract HC Jimbo Fisher, aka the QB whisperer, hasn’t whispered the right sweet nothings into the ear of second year starting QB Kellon Mond.  Hence, the hoped for leap forward has been sideways.

Worst Outcome.  A&M continues to win the winnable ones and lose the expected ones and the bet loses by 1/2 game as they finish 7-5.

Best Outcome.  The Aggies upset either Georgia or LSU on the road and win the easier remaining home games and they finish 8-4.

Outlook.  This one is tough.  We thought that they would beat Auburn which would have gotten the likely record to 8-4, but they didn’t.  SC beat Georgia in Athens two weeks ago.  Can it happen again?  Sure.  If Florida beats Georgia this weekend, thereby knocking Georgia out of the playoff picture, we’ll then predict an Aggie late season win.  If Georgia has to beat the Aggies to get to ATL for the SEC Championship game we think they will hold serve between the hedges.

Prediction.  We’ve stuck our neck out this far, why not once more?  Aggies beat UTSA and SC at home and Georgia there.  LSU beats A&M to close the season.  Aggies go 8-4 and the bet wins $100.

If our latest predictions hold true a 4-1 record and a nice payoff await.  Worst case we are probably looking at 3-2 and a positive payoff.

One prediction we can safely make is that we will be back next year with more season long predictions v. the win total.  The bet never fails to entertain, and it lasts all season long.  Well it does unless you’re Joe Moorhead, thankfully.