thependulumswings

Did the new NFL playoff expanded format for 2020 and beyond slip right by you?

The NFL changed its highly approved of, very fair, and long-standing playoff tradition.  It’s the first playoff format change since 1990.

John Madden used to say that December football was different than the months prior.  He said it’s because good teams turn up the effort and solidify their playoff spots or division championships, while average to bad teams play out the string.

Seven teams out of 16 in each conference now make the postseason tourney.  With five or six games left, the possibilities are numerous.

As Thanksgiving approaches, we decided to take a few days this week and next to take a team by team look at each division to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

That series begins today with a look at the AFC East.

The Past

-No it’s not true that the division was renamed this year the AFC East as it was formerly known as the New England Patriots Playground.

-New England won the division 17 of nineteen years since 2001.  Bill Belichick and Tom Brady broke numerous records as a paired coach and QB.

The Outlook

– With Brady long gone the division appeared wide open (except for the dreadful Jets) for the taking in 2020.

-The Bills have been slowly but steadily improving, earning a wild card spot in 2017 and 2019 by building a nice team with a developing Josh Allen at QB.

-Miami traded everything not nailed down two years ago for future assets as well as last year to build from the ground up.  It beats being directionless and some parts were thought to be in place.

The Present

– The division is indeed wide open (except for the very dreadful Jets) with New England struggling.  Cam Newton is no Tom Brady.  The recent past two drafts for NE have been short on picks and shorter on developed talent.

–  The Bills enter the bye week with a slim 1/2 game lead, but feel like they are playing catch up.  They had the Sunday game in hand until the Cardinal’s Kyler Murray threw a prayer with seconds remaining and DeAndre Hopkins answered it.  Their D isn’t what it was even just last year, but is showing some tenacity on third downs and creating turnovers.

–  Here come the Dolphins! Five weeks into the season their number one draft pick Tua Tagovailoa hadn’t been under center for one snap.  A week later he entered for mop-up duty against the (have we called them dreadful enough) Jets.  He took the reins during the bye week.  Fast forward three weeks and Tua is three and ohhh so energetic as a starter.  A 1-3 Dolphins September is suddenly a 6-3 season to date after running off five straight wins.  One win was against a good Cardinals team that just delivered on the Hail Mary v Buffalo.

– Never count a Bill Belichick team out.  Repeat.  Never.  For years observers close to the league wondered, Brady aside, how much talent did the Patriots really have? This year they found out.  Not too much.  But.  “Coach said it best — we are a good enough team to be better than what our record kind of displays. We’re just finding that out,” Newton relayed in his weekly interview on sports radio WEEI on Monday morning.  Julian Edelman is nearing full health.  His return should give Cam a very valuable target to add to the up and down offense.  NE can square their record at 5-5 v the woeful Houston Texans this week.  What was the Super Bowl Champion Patriots record after 10 games in 2001, Brady’s first year as a full-time starter?   it was 5-5.

– The Jets are, well, dreadful.  Their record this season speaks for itself.  When you are getting outscored by a 268-121 margin thus far you’re in line for the very first pick of the 2021 draft.  The Jets always pick early, always.  They have question marks from top to bottom in their organization.   You can’t answer the questions at the bottom until you answer the questions at the very top.

The Prediction(s)

– The Buffalo Bills have an easier schedule than the Dolphins and will hold on to win the East at 11-5.  The week off comes at just the right time.  Some physical healing is needed and some mental short term memory loss is as well.  If it’s still up for debate, they host Miami on 12/3, the last regular-season game.  Advantage Bills.

-The surging Dolphins will complete their franchise turnaround a year (at least) earlier than thought and secure a wild card birth at 10-6.  They have three easy (if there is such a thing) games coming up then finish tough (v Chiefs, v Patriots, at Raiders, at Bills.)  Ask the team management now if they would be pleased with 10-6 and a wild card slot.  You bet.

–  The Patriots will continue to win some that you wonder how they did (Belichick game plans like no other) and lose a couple that they wish they hadn’t (is Cam Newton reliable at a high NFL level anymore?) to finish 8-8.

– The Jets’ best chance to win one game this year likely comes this weekend.  They travel three times zones to play the 2-7 Los Angeles Chargers.  The Jets are road dogs by 9.  Vegas has them as a double-digit dog in every other game they have left.  It says here that they will finish a, wait for it, dreadful 0-16.  J-E-T-S.  Jets.  Jets.  Jets!

Next, we tackle the AFC North.