thependulumswings

The words “franchise” and “quarterback” go together in the NFL like “hammer” and “nail” do in the construction business.

Every team has a quarterback or three.  But, not every team has what anyone will tell you is the most important piece to success- a franchise quarterback.  A deep playoff run, much less a Super Bowl win, is highly improbable without one.

In this century (if you consider the year 2000 as part of this century) 25 times a team has traded up to be able to say “we got our guy.”  When you use the draft book that all teams use to value every slot in the entire draft, you figure that, on average, a team trading up to get the next Patrick Mahomes gives up an additional 1st round pick to do so.

A first-round pick is gold.  NFL teams’ highest hit rate on success is in round one and with the salary cap that successful pick is under contract for arguably less than half of his worth in free agency.  That’s called value and that’s how you win in the NFL-you have more talent under the same salary cap.

So, to give one up is to give up a lot.  So, how have the 25 trade-ups fared?  You’d think quite well considering all that goes into player personnel research.

The answer is good, ok, and downright ugly.

Good

In 2017 The Kansas City Chiefs sent their first, 2018 first, and a third-rounder to move to number 10 overall to take the aforementioned Patrick Mahomes.  One SB win, another appearance, three Pro Bowls, and one MVP later make this move not only good, but bordering on genius.

In that same draft, the Houston Texans traded two firsts for 15 spots up to nab DeShaun Watson.  Twenty lawsuits off of the field aside (and that’s one big aside when he’s the face of the franchise) his on-field development has been worthy.

Honorable mention for this level goes to the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen as well as the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson.

Ok

Joe Flacco only cost the Ravens a swap of ones, a third, and a sixth to move up eight spots to get him 18th overall.  While not elite he was special in their 2012 postseason and SB win with 11 touchdowns and no picks.  Flacco played 11 years with the Ravens and won 96 while losing 67.

The Rams traded multiple picks and got three in return for the first pick of 2016 for Jared Goff.  The price was steep.  The results were ok.  Goff led the Rams to the SB once, made the playoffs in three of the five years he was there, and posted a 42-27 overall mark.  But, Sean McVay fell out of love with Goff and shipped him to the NFL’s version of hell (Detroit) this offseason.

Others considered at this level are Jay Cutler (35k passing yards) and Michael Vick (rushed for over 900 yards in two seasons and went 38-28 as a starter before he got into trouble with the law).

Ugly

Amazingly the list is long at this level and picking the biggest winner (or loser) is tough.  “Lipstick” and “pig” come to mind, not “franchise” and quarterback.”

Johnny “Heisman” Manzel takes first (last) place here.  He appeared in 14 games in two seasons for the Browns.  And, with many off of the field problems he never played another down in the NFL.  Bust is thy name.

Tim Tebow cost Denver a second, third, and fourth-rounder to get into the bottom of round one. in 2010.  Tebow was out of the NFL by 2013.  He started 14 games, though one was a miracle first-round win over Pittsburgh in the 2011 playoffs.

The Browns make the board again with the selection of Brady Quinn in 2007.  He stated and played poorly in 12 games in the NFL.  The price to swap one’s was a high second-rounder.

Others in consideration were Josh Rosen (Cardinals) who could easily be in the above top three, Paxton Lynch (Broncos) with four starts and a league exit in two years, and J.P. Losman (Bills) who defined mediocrity in five mediocre Bills’ seasons from 2004-2008.

Five quarterbacks will likely go in the first round on Thursday night.  Teams reach every year to find Mr. Right.

In case you are wondering, Ryan Leaf was drafted in 1998 and therefore wasn’t considered for the above.

Had he been two years younger we would have needed a category below “UGLY.”

One or more of the five Thursday could join him.

Who will that be?  That would require a crystal ball.