Author: thependulumswings staff

I’ll be Home(less) for Christmas

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

I’ll be home for Christmas
You can count on me
Please have snow and mistletoe
And presents on the tree.

Sounds nice, doesn’t it?  The lyrics don’t work so well if you don’t have a home though.

And, apparently in California the lyrics don’t work so well.  New statistics released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development showed that California’s 16.4% increase in homeless was “entirely” responsible for the nation’s overall increase of 2.7% by early 2019.

So if the nation’s homeless population increased by 2.7% and Cali increased by 16.4%, and that was “entirely” responsible for the increase, that means either less people were homeless in all of the other states, or they all moved to California.

Which one was it?  If 49 states found a way to reduce the national embarrassment, how did they do it?  Perhaps it was more drug addition, alcohol addiction, or mental health treatment?  With the national unemployment near zero, did some find permanent work, and by extension housing?  Or, did the nation’s homeless catch a ride to the left side of the continent?  If so, why?  Is it because California is more tolerant and accommodative?

These aren’t easy questions to ask, and the answers might be much more complex than meets the eye.  But, isn’t it time, actually past time, that we asked the tough questions? As a nation are we willing to accept the tough answers and get after fixing the problem rather than passing it by under a tent under an overpass?

California Governor Gavin Newsom thinks so.    He said earlier this week, “It is an embarrassment, it is unacceptable. And we’ve got to own it, we’ve got to own up and solve it.”  How?  Newsom and other Democrats in California insist the solution is more federal money for housing.  Donald J. Trump disagrees. He tweeted, “Governor Gavin N has done a really bad job on taking care of the homeless population in California. If he can’t fix the problem, the Federal Govt. will get involved!”

We wonder if giving(throwing money at) housing to those without a house helps anything long term.  You’ve heard of “give a man a fish and he eats for a day, but teach him how to fish and he can feed himself for a lifetime,” haven’t you?  Is the problem not having a home? Or, is the problem not doing enough good in society to be paid in kind for it and then renting or buying a place to live?

For a person homelessness should be a short term problem.  Society should look for a long term solution.  Gavin Newsom needs to lead the charge for change in how this is addressed, not lead the cry for national cash to address it.

You don’t get to tell the federal government to stay out of your sanctuary cities, but come build your homeless a city.  Trump won’t carry California in 2020.  There is not a chance.  But he might have to step in to solve it’s problem for it’s downtrodden to have a chance.

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NFL

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s the beginning of a long holiday week.  People are dashing around from shopping malls to shopping malls.  Amazon Prime trucks are dashing from address to address.  The BBR staff is having it’s annual holiday golf tournament today.  So we’ll keep it short with a quick, NFL Ten Piece Nugget served five from the NFC and five from the AFC style.  It will be good to get something in your stomach before the eggnog and bourbon take control.

  1.  The NFC side of the playoff picture is as clear as a bell and as foggy as England.  Huh?  Five of the six spots are spoken for, with the sixth a Philadelphia  and Dallas mess.  Dallas controlled it till yesterday’s loss to Philly.  Now if Philly wins against the New York football Giants they are in.  If they lose, Dallas is in with a win over Washington.  Winner is division champ.  Loser goes home.
  2. If the loser is Dallas, Jason Garrett is going home too.  Jerry Jones said he was very disappointed in his team’s performance yesterday. Duh. They failed to score a touchdown against a banged up, but hungrier, Philly team.  With Cooper, Prescott, and Elliot as your big three on O a lot of money isn’t getting a lot of production.  Prescott was asked post game, “what’s the problem?”  His answer was profound.  “I don’t know.”
  3. The other five spots are sealed while the order and bye’s are anything but.  San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle, and Minnesota are in.  Only N.O. is for sure the division champ and therefore a host of a wild card at a minimum.  But home field is at stake as are the top two seed spots.  There are too many “if’s” to detail them.
  4. One thing is for sure though.  There are too many “if’s” by team to consider anyone of them a prohibitive NFC Super Bowl favorite.  New Orleans inexplicably lost to Atlanta a while back.  San Fran did the same yesterday to lowly Arizona.  Green Bay is much better at home than the road.  Minnesota and Seattle might both need to win three in a row on the road.  But, they are both very live wild card teams, if they wind up as wild card teams, built for post season play.
  5. New Orleans lacks weapons outside of one who is nearly unstoppable this year.  Marvin Harrison’s NFL record of 143 catches in a season stood for 17 years, and no one came within even six catches of it.  Sunday New Orleans Saints receiver Michael Thomas broke Harrison’s mark with one game to go.  Thomas already has 145 catches on the year after he caught 12 passes for 136 yards and a touchdown in Sunday’s 38-28 come-from-behind victory over the Tennessee Titans.  Can a wide receiver win the MVP award?  Well, Thomas is 66-1 while Lamar Jackson is 1-30.
  6. Speaking of Thomas as we swing into the AFC, the QB and his Baltimore Ravens now have to be considered a strong favorite to take home the Lombardi Trophy in Miami regardless of who the NFC rep is.  Baltimore is winning big weekly and dominating in all aspects of the game.  After a 2-2 start, they are winners of 11 straight.  Eleven straight wins in the NFL is called domination.  In an AFC Conference loaded with really good quarterbacking, this just in, Lamar Jackson is good.
  7. But, as usual, don’t count out New England just yet.  Their yearly trip to the biggest game of all got a shorter route thanks to Saturday’s gut check win against a gutsy Buffalo Bills team.  A win this week against Miami in New England will give them a first round bye.  This just in, Tom Brady is good.
  8. Perched at # 3 is KC.  If you fell asleep Sunday night you missed a 26-3 Chiefs snoozer over the somnambulistic Chicago Bears 26-3.  They need a win and a week 17 loss by NE to have a bye.   This just in, Patrick Mahomes is good.  The Bears are not.
  9. Don’t sleep on the Houston Texans.  They clinched the AFC South for the fourth time in five years Saturday.  They can score and they can play decent defense.  If KC loses and Houston wins they could move up to the all important #2 seed and gain the all important bye week as well.  This just in, Deshaun Watson is good.
  10. Buffalo has won ten games and counting this year and are in as the fifth seed.  They are a dangerous wild card team.  They’ll scrap you for a ball anytime, anywhere.  This just in, Josh Allen isn’t good yet, but he’s moving in the right direction.  The Tennessee Titans could still get in.  They drafted Marcus Mariotta in round one a few years back.   Miami did the same with Ryan Tannehill.  Tennessee looks to have given up on MM like Miami did on Tannehill.  Miami’s loss is Tennessee’s gain for now.  Pittsburgh needs lots of help to get in.  Oakland needs lots and lots of help to get in.

Enjoy a few lousy NCAA Bowl games that no one really cares about and a few NBA early season games that no one really cares about till the weekend.  Then it’s the NCAA playoffs and the final regular season week in the NFL.

A little sprinkle of cinnamon on top of the eggnog is just the right finishing touch.

 

Meathead Slays a Whopper

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

President Trump traveled back from Battle Creek, MI last evening after another one of his pep rallies and newly impeached.  The two Articles of Impeachment were voted on and were slated to travel over to the other side of our distinguished House of Representatives.  Madame House Speaker Nancy Pelosi contemplated holding them back for a few days to “insure a fair trial” over in the Senate.  And, the entire BBR staff is traveling this AM.  With all of this holiday travel going on, we’ll keep it very brief today.   

Nancy Pelosi and friends went from prayerful and solemn during the process to asking members of the House to not celebrate or gloat afterwards.  Apparently with both coasts very much in favor of Impeachment, the wise owl Majority Leader’s words of wisdom from the east didn’t resonate all the way over to the west, and times two in Hollywood.

Take a look and read the attached to see for yourself.  Noted academicians, scholars, constitutionalists, and deep thinkers ranging from Michael Moore to Alyssa Milano weighed in. Even “Meathead” himself Rob Reiner got even with the old, prejudiced Archie Bunker.  They all did a Twitter dance or two filled with glee.  One even called the President a MF.

The First Amendment guarantees them their right to do so.  Apparently from some of the tweets, though, that right doesn’t extend to “angry, old, white men” who “were the only ones” expressing the opposite side.

Like ordering a Whooper, it’s a great country we live in.  Especially if You Can Have It Your Way!

Hold the pickle, hold the lettuce, special impeachments don’t upset us.

Ridiculous

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Yesterday in the hallowed halls of the U.S. Congress Madame Speaker Nancy Pelosi was asked to comment on the six page letter sent to her by the 45th President of the United States Donald J. Trump.

“No comment,” she said while walking hurriedly to her next meeting.  “It’s ridiculous,” she continued.  Trump’s letter was a head strong opinion of all that he felt is wrong with the Impeachment process. “I haven’t read it, ” she continued, “we’ve been very busy today.”

We wonder.  She said that she had no comment.  But, she did call it ridiculous.  That sounds like a comment.   She said that she hadn’t read it.  But, she did call it ridiculous.  How would she know that it was if she hadn’t read it?  Ridiculous, that is.

Last night the House Rules Committee was working well into the evening(earning the people’s business) to determine the exact proceedings for today’s full House hearing prior to two separate votes.  At 10PM or so EST they decided that there would be six hours of hearings on the most important vote any of them will make in their lifetimes.  Six hours for 435 representatives equates to 50 seconds per member.  It sounds like many, many will only actually have time to say “yea” or “nay.”

A few years and biscuits ago.

At least they concluded their meeting with finality in their decisions.  Late last week Jerry Nadler, Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, decided to suspend that committee’s meeting as the evening had grown too late.  It was nearly the same 10PM.  He reconvened in the AM for the world to see the adoption of the two Articles of Impeachment.  Grandstanding.  Or, perhaps Jerry needed a late night snack.  Ridiculous.

Meanwhile, yesterday the FISA Court in a rare public expression, came out in a strongly worded opinion against the FBI’s now exposed abuse and likely criminal behavior in obtaining warrants to surveil the Trump Campaign to begin with.   Ridiculous.

The Johnny on the Spot FBI wanted everyone to know that they were going to quickly make changes.   “As [FBI Director Christopher Wray] has stated, the inspector general’s report describes conduct by certain FBI employees that is unacceptable and unrepresentative of the FBI as an institution,” the bureau responded in a statement Tuesday night. “The director has ordered more than 40 corrective steps to address the report’s recommendations, including some improvements beyond those recommended by the IG.”

A quick THREE years later it’s time to change.  And, more than 40 corrective steps were ordered!  So, illegally obtained warrants designed to surveil for possible illegal activity provided all the cover needed to continue the FBI’s illegal surveillance.  Got it.  Ridiculous.

Wall St seems totally unfazed.  Since the Impeachment Inquiry was formalized just seven weeks ago in the House the Dow is up 6%, the S&P 8%, and the NASDAQ 10%.  They know that this is going absolutely nowhere.  Perhaps we should impeach more Presidents.

All of which brings us to today.  The full House will convene, and after six hours of burning the retreads off of tires that long ago should have been retired, they will vote almost 100% down party lines.  The Democrats will say “yea” more times than the Republicans can say “nay.”  Then the “yea’s” will have it, and presto, Trump will be impeached.   Is it even possible for two power hungry sides to see things, or at least pretend to see things, so clearly differently?  Ridiculous.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is preparing for the possibility of a January month long Senate Impeachment Trial(circus).  Though just yesterday he hinted at an immediate dismissal vote after the Impeachment Articles are formally entered onto the Senate floor.

Hopefully he won’t be too busy to read the articles while walking in front of all of his staff members down the hallowed halls like the Madame Speaker was yesterday.  If so, he’ll likely have “no comment,” just like Pelosi did, or did not.   Ridiculous.

Keep hope alive!

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-Kitchen Sink

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s cold outside this morning regardless almost of where you are.  Time to make a pot of soup, or a Ten Piece Nuggets.  What do you want in it?  Everything but the kitchen sink sounds good.  So, we’re going deep in the panty to give you ten random thoughts, in no particular order, and covering no particular subject matter, though sports and the political madness are the roux.  If we cook them slow enough maybe they’ll all come together.  If they don’t we’ll go get an Impossible Burger later.

  1.  How long is the list before you get to Drew Brees as the greatest all time QB in NFL history?  It’s hard to measure this objectively.  Different periods of football, rules changes, differences in the order of importance of the metrics?  How important are Super Bowl wins?  For the sake of argument let’s afford him one more before he goes.  Where would you put him then?  We’d go with third best ever.  Tom Brady has to get the nod given the Super Bowl performances and wins.  Joe Montana would be second for much of the same plus his accuracy.  Peyton Manning and John Elway aren’t far behind.
  2. What fundamentally changes after Donald Trump is impeached, tried, and acquitted? The Republicans did a nice job of digging in and combating the Trump named “witch hunt.”  Democrats insisted on a ready, fire, aim approach.  They sure have a lot of bullets, but we aren’t sure that any hit a bullseye unless you don’t like him to begin with.  Dislike doesn’t rise to the level of high crimes and misdemeanors, hence America’s collective yawn.  If you were for it or against it before this started, you still are from whence you came.
  3. The college bowl season gets underway this weekend.  Forty one bowls are on tap in all.  Eighty teams in all as two will play two games including the last one for the biggest prize.  If you win as many regular season games as you lost or win one more, you’re in.  If you are already feeling college football withdrawals, you might tune into something named the Bahamas Bowl brought to you by Meineke Mufflers featuring Idaho St. v.  William and Mary.  Or, you might not.
  4. Coincidence or not?  Elizabeth Warren’s polling numbers peaked in late October.  They’ve slid since.  The collective pharmaceutical stock prices slid until her numbers peaked.  The stocks have been sharply higher since late October.
  5.  For the first time since 2010 Alabama did not have a first team All American named.  Injuries, graduation and youth played a role.  But at Alabama injuries, graduation, and youth hasn’t ever got in the way before.  Is this the beginning of the end of the greatest 10 year run in college football history?  Or is it a one year aberration?  If you don’t think Nick Saban is working well into the evening to insure it’s the latter, they you don’t know much about his work ethic and burning desire to achieve.
  6. Joe Biden is apparently the clear front runner again in the race to face the man with the orange face.  It’s been nearly a week since Sleepy Joe has mixed up the decade that we are in or the state that he is in.  He’s been in Iowa for two weeks straight.  So, that part might be a bit easier for him.  Trump needs no one to tell him how to run a race for President.  But, he’d be wise to challenge Biden to more than the usual number of debates if Biden gets the nomination.  Anyone remember how tired Hillary Clinton was at the end of it all?  How tired was she?  Glad you asked.  She was so tired that she forgot to make a concession speech the evening of the election.
  7. The NBA season is nearing a third complete.  League viewership ratings are down significantly.  Questions abound and answers need to be found.  Have the early season matchups coincided with marquee players injuries making the matchups less interesting? Sure.  Have the number of people who have cut the cord (no more cable or satellite tv) made it harder to find the games?  Sure.  Will the end of the football season have the ratings go up for the NBA?  Sure, but it always does.  Is the NBA concerned?  Damn sure.  Did the NBA turn off the fan who supports the freedom protests in Hong Kong?  Sure, but to what degree and for how long?  Did the NBA fan appreciate the LeBron lecture on China and all that is right with it?  Not sure.
  8. It seems like the persona that James Comey wanted you to know and feel with his testimony, tweets, Trump attacks, book, and book tour might have taken a hit in the last week.  Even Comey himself was forced to admit on Chris Wallace’s Fox News Sunday Show that the FISA process (the keys to the engine that drove the “Russian interference” investigation in the 2016 election) was rife with problems as the proper process was not followed.  That’s being kind to the process actually.   Criminal proceedings, maybe not against Comey, will result after AG Barr has his final say.  The investigation, like the deep state that caused it, goes deeper now.
  9.  MLB calls this time of the year “The Hot Stove League.”  It’s been hotter than Hades for one team.  The Houston Astros lost game seven of the World Series in late October.  Since then they have lost Gerrit Cole, three major league scouts, the team President Reid Ryan (son of Nolan), advisor Nolan Ryan (dad of the President),  and significant credibility.  The investigation into the allegation that they were stealing signs electronically after being warned repeatedly to not do so continues.  When it’s complete astute league followers expect suspensions of manager AJ Hinch, GM Jeff Luhnow, and perhaps others.  Fines in the millions and lost draft picks are almost a certainty as well.  It was a model franchise in the eyes of many not long ago.  No more.  The mess must be dealt with, and dealt with strongly.  It’ll be late February or early March of 2020 before the investigation is complete we are told.
  10.  Their is an age old saying in politics.  People vote their wallets.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 28,332.74 on Monday, meaning it has rallied 10,000 points, or more than 54 percent, since Trump’s election victory on November 8, 2016.   There are 11 long months to go till we find out.

I’ll have the Impossible Burger, no mayo please.

Disappointment From Coast to Coast, Part Five

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA Football regular season ink is dry, and the dye is cast.

So who are they?  Who are those teams that fell significantly short of meeting the expectations of their followers?  Disappointment can and does come from a few angles.  The program’s history builds in annual minimum standards.  A new, and maybe highly paid, coach can further that.  A good recruiting year or three can further that.  Some teams are bad but somewhat expected.  Some are disappointing and somewhat unexpected.

So far the disappointments by conference have been Washington in the PAC 12, Florida St. (ACC) Texas (BIG 12), and Texas A&M (SEC).  While selecting the last three of these teams we wrote the following.  Usually in year two of a new coaching staff’s run the ascent begins.  After all, you have two years of your own recruits.  You may have run off a few that you don’t want.  The transfer portal can accelerate your personnel transformation.  You have instilled the weight and nutritional training that you want to shape your team.  Your culture is, or better be, in place.  Your staff has had two springs and two falls to “coach em up.”  If it’s a big time program money/budgets are generous to accomplish all of the above.  

This series concludes today a bit later than intended, but a lot quicker than the nonsense in Washington DC. So, last but not least, to the BIG 10 we go.  And, once again, we find a team with a rather highly touted second year coach at the helm.

Most Disappointing

As a player, Scott Frost, now the Nebraska head coach, was coached by Stanford’s Bill Walsh, Nebraska’s Tom Osborne, the New York Jets’ Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick, and the Buccaneers’ Mike Tomlin and Jon Gruden.  That is one impressive list of teachers.

As a coach, Frost worked under Chip Kelly as first the WR coach, then took over the reins as  OC at Oregon.  He helped Marcus Mariotta guide the prolific offense and win the Heisman in 2014.  After the 2015 season he took over an 0-12 UCF program.  They immediately started to turn around.  In 2016 they finished 6-6 and in 2017 they won 13 and lost none, won the American Conference Championship and took down then ranked #7 Auburn in the Sugar Bowl.  That is one impressive turn around.

So optimism was high when the former Cornhusker player took the reins as it’s head coach in early 2018.   Nebraska finished 4-8 in 2018.  It just finished a 5-7 campaign this year that included a 2-4 record v Big 10 West Division foes, and 3-6 against the Big 10 in all.  Their wins came against South Alabama, Northern Illinois, Illinois, Northwestern and Maryland.    The better teams on their schedule scored early and often v the leaky D.  The best teams like Ohio St., Minnesota, and Wisconsin beat them by 41,27, and 16 respectively proving that the road to success is still in the distance.

Against similar competition ,PJ Fleck guided the Golden Gophers to a 9-0 record in year three of his turnaround before fading (1-2) some in November.  Fleck’s first two teams went 5-7, then 7-6.   Perhaps the third time will be the charm for Frost and the Cornhuskers as well.  His resume points to that possibility, and his paycheck demands it.

Nebraska is the most disappointing team in the BIG 10.

Also Considered

Northwestern finished in the cellar of the East Division with a 1-5 record against that side, 1-8 in conference, and 3-9 overall.  In 2018, Northwestern captured the Big Ten West division title for the first time in school history, finishing with an 8–1 mark in conference play.  They went on to beat Utah in the Holiday Bowl as well.  It was a stunning and hard drop from last season to this one for the Wildcats.

It was indeed disappointing, but at Nebraska it’s been too long since they tore down the goal posts.  More is expected.

 

 

 

 

Disappointment From Coast to Coast, Part Four

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA Football regular season ink is dry, and the dye is cast.

So who are they?  Who are those teams that fell significantly short of meeting the expectations of their followers?  Disappointment can and does come from a few angles.  The program’s history builds in annual minimum standards.  A new, and maybe highly paid, coach can further that.  A good recruiting year or three can further that.  Some teams are bad but somewhat expected.  Some are disappointing and somewhat unexpected.

In part two we selected Florida St. from the ACC and in part three we selected Texas from The BIG 12.  As an intro as to why we wrote the following on each. Usually in year two of a new coaching staff’s run the ascent begins.  After all, you have two years of your own recruits.  You may have run off a few that you don’t want.  The transfer portal can accelerate your personnel transformation.  You have instilled the weight and nutritional training that you want to shape your team.  Your culture is, or better be, in place.  Your staff has had two springs and two falls to “coach em up.”  If it’s a big time program money/budgets are generous to accomplish all of the above.  

That trend stretches to three straight teams as we head south.  This series’ timeliness also went south as impeachments and other Washington nonsense continued to get in the way. To the SEC we go.

Most Disappointing

When Texas A&M invested a fully guaranteed $75 million for the services of head coach Jimbo Fisher starting in 2018, did they think that they would finish 7-5 this year?  Likely not.  Did they think that they would only win games that they were favored in and lose all others?  Likely not.  Did they hope for the “quarterback whisperer” Jimbo to sprinkle magic dust on second year starter Kellon Mond?  Likely so.  They beat  SEC West foes Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Mississippi St. by 4,7, and 19 points respectively.  Their favorite cheer is WHOOOOP!   Those wins are WHOOOP tee doo.

Sure their schedule was brutal.  Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Clemson, and Alabama is a tough go.  But, in the SEC, except for the non conference Clemson game, that’s as common as fried chicken and bourbon on a fall Saturday.  A brutal schedule means that you aren’t as good as a lot of teams.  And, the Aggies proved that in 2019 despite an improving D.

The Texas A&M Aggies were the most disappointing team in the SEC.

Also Considered

BBR considered South Carolina and Mississippi St. but disappointment after a season is relative to realistic expectations going into it.  SC had a great road upset over Georgia in a game of defense, but lost five of their last six thereafter including a loss to Appalachian St.  Cross state rival Clemson is miles away and ahead of the SC program and hammered them 38-3 to close out a 4-8 campaign.

Mississippi St. lost three starters from their 2018 squad that were drafted in the top 27 picks of round one.  It’s hard to recruit to Starkville on a consistent basis and it’s nearly impossible to replace that type of talent.  The Bulldogs are bowl bound at 6-6, but their over/under win total in Vegas was 8-4.  That’s a two game disappointment.  Joe Moorhead replaced Dan Mullen.  At Mississippi St. that’s not an enviable position.

It’s a Marathon, or Two.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Have you ever run a marathon?  It’s quite a feat to cross off of your bucket list we assume.  Accomplished runners will tell you that the only thing worse than the physical grind is the mental grind.  Surely you’ve heard of hitting the wall around mile 20 or so and having to really dig deep to will yourself to the finish line.

Did you feel like the impeachment marathon had at least reached the proverbial wall earlier this week when Nancy Pelosi (CA) stepped up to the podium to provide the encouragement needed for Adam Schiff (CA) and Jerry Nadler (NY) to get the articles drafted?  It worked.  Amazingly, just a day or so later, flanked by more two more New Yorkers and two more Californians, Schiff and Nadler announced that President Donald J. Trump’s high crimes and misdemeanors would be headed to a congressional vote.

If the Democratic Party controlled House vote has a majority in the “yea” column, the marathon concludes in the Senate in a full trial.  It seems like it’s taken forever to run this race.  It’s started on The Hill and has slowly wound it’s way to just six point two miles now from the very bottom.  The race is unique as each mile either shares a name with another or has a unique one all to itself.

Let’s refresh your three year, first 20 mile by mile memory.  1.  Tax returns.  2. The Steele Dossier.  3.  Session’s Recusal.  4.  Russian Collusion,  5.  Putin’s Turn,  6.  Obstruction (the toughest mile).  7.  More Russian Collusion.  8.  Obstruction of Justice.  9.   Schiff’s Got Proof.  10.  Comey, My Comey.  11.  Peter Strzok.  12.  Lisa(Lover’s Lane) Page.  13.  The Mueller Report (the slowest mile).  14.  The Whistleblower(you can not see the fans cheering you on, but you can hear them).  15. Ukraine.  16.  Quid Pro Quo.  17.  Bribery.  18.  Solemn and Prayerful (candles line each side of the road).  19. Abuse of Presidential Power.  And, whew, 20.  Obstruction of Congress.

With just six point two miles left the Senate joins the race.  Has America hit it’s own wall yet?

But just yesterday we learned that we might need to start training for yet a second marathon.  A second one wasn’t anywhere on the bucket list.

Rep Karen Bass (CA) said if Trump is reelected in 2020 there might be a second impeachment.  Here’s what she said.  “Because even though we’re impeaching him now, there’s still a number of court cases, there’s a ton of information that can come forward. For example, we can get his bank records and find out he’s owned 100 percent by the Russians.  The only thing I’d say slightly different is that it might not be the same articles of impeachment because the odds are we’ll have a ton more information.”

Californians and New Yorkers want to do away with Donald Trump and the Electoral College.  The middle of America wants to reelect Donald Trump and do away with Californians and New Yorkers.

At least all fifty states don’t want another impeachment marathon, do they?  It’s crossed off of their bucket list, isn’t it?

 

Putting the Eye Test to the Test.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

LSU. Ohio State.  Clemson.  Oklahoma.

Did the College Football Playoff Committee get it right?  The consensus by far is that the 13 member panel did.  More often than not, they do.

More often than not, the top four teams separate themselves once the regular season and the conference championships are played.  It seems so this year as well.

So, this year the committee chose the obvious because the obvious presented itself given the outcomes on the field of play.  But, in the weeks leading up to, and the one before the final weekend, the committee seeded the top 15 teams based on results, their own eye test, injuries, and an assumption here or there.

Would an old school BCS computer model have done the same?  Would Vegas choose the same?  We don’t know, but we wonder if both would have had nos. 4 through, say 12 ranked differently.

Two weeks ago THE was the “more complete team.”  Two weeks later “LSU has been playing better and getting healthier on D,” committee leader Rob Mullen said.  Seems like an eye test to us.

We wonder how Utah entered this weekend ranked #5 without a win over a single ranked team and one loss.  Baylor was in the same boat and ranked below them.  The difference?  Baylor lead Oklahoma 28-3 a month ago before surrendering 34-31.  Utah lost to USC 30-27.  USC was unranked.  Oklahoma is in the final four.  Eye test anyone?  Oregon’s win showed us that Utah was no where near the top 5.  If Baylor beat Oklahoma and Utah won would Baylor have jumped Utah?  If Oklahoma beat Baylor and Utah beat Oregon would Oklahoma have jumped Utah? Maybe.  Oregon finished ahead of Baylor, so we doubt the Bears would have.

We wonder how a three loss Wisconsin team (losers to Illinois and THE in the regular season, and THE in the conf championship) was and is ranked 8th while several two loss teams, most notably Alabama (ranked 13th after falling one spot without playing last weekend) are ranked well below.  Alabama lost by five to LSU and three on a boinked off of the upright field goal to Auburn.  Ah, the committee all but said “the loss of the QB (Tua T) hurt Bama a bit.”  Bama scored 41 v #1 LSU and 45 v #12 Auburn.  The O wasn’t Bama’s problem before nor after the injury.  The D was.  Eye test anyone?

We could go on, and on.  But the point is, why do we have humans deciding this?  Haven’t advanced metrics, models, AI, and computers passed up the human eye in determining who is who?  The BCS computer model was devised to do just that.  But humans decided that the computer model didn’t pass their eye test.  The very thing that model was designed to do- take away the eye test, got taken away by the eye test.

If you support a chip in the nose of the football to determine down and distance and fumble or not, why not a tech help for the committee?  If you yell at the screen watching umps miss balls for strikes and strikes for balls v. the superimposed zone on the screen why not a tech help to the committee?  We could go on and on.

The committee got the final four right because the teams separated perfectly on the final weekend.  If it came down differently and went to an eye test, would the outcome have been different?  And, would it have been correct?

Vegas would favor several lower ranked teams in the final 15, and in some cases by double digits, over several higher ranked teams.  The NFL would take Alabama’s starting 22 over any other roster in the NCAA, yet the committee sees them as the 13th best.

For now everyone is happy, except fans of THE.  Their eye test sees scarlet and gray as a clear no. 1 over purple and the yellow that LSU calls gold.

And, that makes the point.  The computer doesn’t see color.

 

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week 15

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

And here come the NCAA Conference Championship games.  Whew.  That was quick.  Anyone having withdrawals before it’s even over?

After a week in NOLA Abby is having a few withdrawals of her own of a different kind.  But, the elixir proved to be mixed just like a fine hand crafted cocktail. It got the job done.

Her back to back weeks of picks from the road make you want one more round in the worst way.  Week 13’s won/loss record was 5-1, while week 14 was 4-1.  That brings her season long record to a fine 39-34. Woof. The way more important bones wagered took home ten of eleven then seven of eight.  Therefore, Abby has taken 78 of them from Vegas while only paying 55.  That is a degenerate gambler good win percentage of 58.6%  Woof!  Woof!  Meanwhile the hunch bet split the last two weeks and stands on all four legs at 10-5.  Woof!  Woof!  Woof!

Enough with the barking already.  It’s time to earn some more pats on the head.

Oregon + 7 v Utah –  The Utes are the best team no one has seen this year.  Oregon is the first ranked team, when the game is played, the Utes will play this year.  Utes win, Ducks cover.  One bone.

Baylor v Oklahoma -9 – The Bears are the second best team no one has seen play this year.  They led Oklahoma by 25 at one point in their first meeting.  Not this time. The Sooners make a statement by hanging half a hundo on Baylor to give the Playoff Committee something to think about.  Two Bones.

UAB +7 1/2 v FAU – Is Lane Kiffin’s honeymoon in south Florida over?  Rumors swirl about new girlfriends (head coaching jobs at Arkansas) every year about this time.  UAB dances with the one they brought and wins straight up.  One bone.

Georgia v LSU over 54 1/2 – Most of the talk pregame is about how good Georgia’s D is.  The rest of the talk is about how Georgia is either hurt or suspended at the skill positions.  It’s a zig when others zag.  Expect Georgia to put up 20 plus and LSU to put up 30 plus, just enough to cover on a fast track in the Mercedes Benz Georgia Dome.  Two bones.

Cincinnati v Memphis under 57 1/2 –  These two met last week and scored 58 total points.  Meeting in back to back weeks we like the under as Abby assumes (you know what happens when you assume?) the two D’s will learn from the film more than the two O’s will change what they do.  One bone.

We make no hunch bet this week.  But we do have a hunch.  On a hunch expect Oklahoma (if Georgia loses) to jump Utah and gain the #4 seed.

Woof, again!

P.S.  Abby howls at the moon in amazement at how the playoff committee ranks Alabama as low as they do.