Author: thependulumswings staff

(Not) Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Your nuggets are here.  There are only eight this morning. Why?  One, the treadmill awaits.  It’s easier to run on eight than ten.  Two, there were a lot of teams off last weekend, so the news is sparse.  Three, we want to do our part to help Elizabeth Warren fund universal health care, but we digress while you digest.

  1.  The AP Top 25 is out.  Tomorrow the first College Football Playoff committee top 15 will be out.  Then the fun starts.  Meanwhile the AP top 5 remained the AP top 5 in the same order as last week.  It’s LSU, Alabama, THE, Clemson, and Penn St. in that order.
  2. Four took the week off.  Clemson did too as they pummeled Wofford 59-14.  Who?  Wofford College (the Terriers) is in South Carolina. The team competes in the NCAA Division I Football Championship Subdivision and are members of the Southern Conference.  Wofford’s first football team was fielded in 1889.  Who knew?
  3. The Georgia Bulldogs jumped from #8 to #6 with their 24-17 victory over Florida.  The score was closer than the game.  The Bulldogs are now in the SEC East driver’s seat with at least a one game lead on everyone else and the tiebreaker over Florida.  Work remains with Missouri and A&M at home, and Auburn on the road however.  When Florida lost to LSU Dan Mullen complained about injuries on his DL.  When Florida lost to Georgia he complained about the officiating.  Thankfully hurricane season has come and gone, so no complaints there.
  4. Oregon stayed at #7, but certainly solidified that ranking.  They dismantled USC 56-24 Saturday evening.  Faint cries from the far northwest are being heard about the Ducks in the playoff conversation.  It’ll be quite interesting to see how carefully the playoff committee is listening.  When your one loss to date is early in the season it helps.  When your one loss early in the season is to Auburn who is behind four SEC teams in the Top 25 it hurts.
  5.  Florida and alligator tears producer Dan Mullen’s loss was Utah and Oklahoma’s gain.   They moved up to #8 and #9 respectively.  Utah had a nice win over Washington.  Perhaps they are on a collision course with Oregon in the PAC 12?  If they both can get there with one loss the winner will have an argument for the final four.  Oklahoma was idle.
  6. Minnesota stayed at lucky #13.  Their gaudy 8-0 record will be put to the test Saturday.  They host 8-0 Penn St.  Minnie head coach P.J. Fleck overtly encouraged ESPN to come to the winter hinterlands for College Game Day.  After all it is two 8-0 teams.  ESPN chose Tuscaloosa for a “Game of the Century, Part II” showdown in the SEC.  LSU v. Alabama it is.  Alabama has won the last eight contests.  Joe Burrow has only played in the last one.
  7. Memphis hopped from #24 up to #19 as they bounced previously undefeated SMU from #15 down to #23.  Defense was optional as the teams combined for a smooth 102 total points.  Memphis scored 54 of them.  The competitive American Athletic Conference has four ranked teams.  Cincinnati is #17, Memphis #19, and SMU is #23.  All hail Navy at #25.
  8. The Florida St. alumni have seen enough.  The Willie Taggart experiment is over 9 games into year two.  Losing to the Miami Hurricanes was the last storm they would ride out.  Three wins and six losses into 2019, Taggart is out.  Florida St. is paying the $18 million buyout price.  But see below.  It’s more expensive than that.

    When the Seminoles hired Taggart away from Oregon, they agreed to pay out his $3 million buyout to end his contract with the Ducks. Florida State also agreed to pay out an additional $1.3 million that Oregon still owed South Florida when they hired him away from that school in 2016.

    So, in the end, Florida State will have paid over $22 million, across three buyouts, so that Taggart could go 9-12 with them in 21 games.

    Maybe these one percenters could help Elizabeth pay for her costly healthcare plan as well?  Surely the first game dehydration problems that Florida St. experienced would be covered.  Pass the hat before the players pass out.

  9. Football in the state of Florida is down this year.  UCF parades not.  Mullen cries a lot.  Taggart was tapped out.  Miami is meh at 5-4, and they have zero wins over top 25 teams.  Let the coaching rumor mill begin.  The Seminoles will aim high.  Urban Meyer?  Nah, he needs the healthcare plan.  Jeff Brohm anyone?  His contract with Purdue includes a buyout, but clearly that won’t stop the Seminoles.
  10. Some early lines are out.  In the two battles of unbeatens visiting LSU is a 6 point dog to Alabama while visiting Penn St is a 6 point favorite over Minnesota.

Ok, ok.  You were over served.  We know the feeling.  More is always better than less, isn’t it?  Hit the treadmill.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Ten

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As Halloween gives way to All Saints Day it’s spooky, despite some up and down weeks, how close to flat line Abby’s season to date results have been.  It’s tricky, but there’s been one treat.  Her hunch bet rang the door bell again and the candy flows.

For the season that bet is carving up Vegas like a pumpkin.  It’s 8 up and only 2 down.  The other bets are 21 up and 24 down, while the bones wagered are exactly even with 42 up and 42 down.

Lots of teams took this weekend off, but Abby never sleeps.  But, she is tired of the kids knocking on the front door.  The bobbing for apples begins below.

Kansas St v. Kansas +6 —  The Wildcats come off of a huge upset over Oklahoma while the Jayhawks upset the Red Raiders.  Abby thinks Red Raiders sounds insensitive these days, but we digress.  Les Miles has his team playing well.   Abby likes the six at home.  Two bones.

TCU v. Oklahoma St -3 — TCU comes off of a nice home win v. Texas.  Oklahoma St. comes home after a nice road win v. Iowa St.  Abby’s favorite movie is A Dog’s Way Home.  How bout dem Cowboy’s?  One bone.

Miami v. Florida St. -3 —  The Seminoles haven’t beaten a good team all year.  Miami isn’t a good team.  Abby thinks Seminoles sounds insensitive these days, but we digress.  Willie Taggart needs this one in the worst way.  The Noles cover late.  One bone.

Oregon v. USC + 4 1/2  and under 62—  Oregon needs to win out to make playoff noise.  This one won’t be easy, but we think they find a way to win but not cover in a game that actually has some West Coast defense.  One bone to win three bones.

Georgia -6 v. Florida —  Abby’s admittedly been back and forth on this game all week.  She is partial to Bulldogs and doesn’t like Gators.  But she bets with her head not her heart.  The six points seem like the side to be on in what seems like a coin flip game. But, she’s going to zig when others zag. Two bones.

The over/under points total in the Largest Outdoor (formerly known as Cocktail) Party is 45.  It seems low.  Abby thinks the word cocktail wasn’t insensitive but we digress.  She also thinks that when the line is yelling over she’ll take the under on a hunch.

Don’t you hate those cheap candy corns?

 

We the People

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The original, unedited, wonderfully written Constitution begins  “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

Now, nearly 250 years in, it has stood the test of time.  It’s what the nation’s forefathers hoped it would do.

It’s strongest part might be it’s first three words, “We the People.”  It’s very beginning suggests that a group met and collectively decided on a course.  That course took a brand new nation, now independent, from it’s birth to opportunities, freedom, safety, wealth, and health the likes of which have never been seen before on this earth.

Today, “We the People” are a very divided group.  Are we the most divided in our nation’s history?  Probably not.  And, despite the histrionics advanced, it’s probably not even close.  “We the People” were more divided before, during, and after the 1861-1865 Civil War.  And, the civil rights movement of the 1960’s was worse to significantly much worse than today.

Today’s “we” are three “we’s” and counting.  We love the disruption that Trump has brought to the status quo in Washington and when, where, and how the U.S. acts on the world stage.  Or, we are disrupters known as “never Trumpers” and we hate (yes hate) Trump.  A third, but growing we, embraces socialism, or even communism. Talk about disruption personified.

Don’t believe the socialism or communism part?  A published poll last evening on one of the major networks showed 27% of American millennials favored communism over capitalism.  These kids borrowed for college.  They owe a lot of money.  They believe that an entry level job isn’t a just reward for doing so.  They want a refund.  And they want it now.  The 1% crowd might be their ATM so they think.

We cannot even rejoice in the elimination of the top leader of ISIS, Abū Bakr al-Baghdadi.  Minutes went by and either the Democrats were offended for not being told prior, or Trump was acting like a bully about it on the bully pulpit, or the Washington Post was eulogizing the savage who ordered the killing of thousands as a austere religious scholar.

The never Trumpers, regardless of party affiliation, have embarked on a three year old campaign to unseat the man who ran the most unconventional campaign the country has ever seen to win the highest seat in all of the land.  That campaign won’t stop all the while Trump’s campaign for reelection is full steam ahead.   Hide in a basement, interview a self created whistleblower, scream “quid quo pro” enough times, and eventually impeach.  That’ll get some of the “We the People” on your team.

Meanwhile, surely it’s time to gas up Air Force One and rile up the base in a red state near you soon.  Stand in line, wear a red MAGA hat, and yell at the other side for 90 minutes.  That’ll make you feel better.  And, that’ll get some of the “We the People” on your team.

Meanwhile, Bernie and Elizabeth are promising those millennials the farm.  The farm might not have much left if Trump doesn’t solve the China trade wars, but we digress.  The farm might not have much left if Trump doesn’t fix that ole existential crisis of climate change, but we further digress.  The farm includes free healthcare, free tuition, tuition debt forgiveness, free flow of immigration, free healthcare for immigrants legal or otherwise.  Free, free, free.  That’ll get some of the “We the People” on your team.

The only problem is that makes for three teams.  It takes four teams for a good playoff.  How about Team Biden?  He’s the head coach of what’s left of the old Democratic Party.  He’s the head coach of what’s now right of the new Democratic Party.  He’s promising to, well, we’re not sure.  Ah yes, he’s promising to beat Trump, platform TBD.  Surely that’ll get some of the “We the People” on your team.

“In order to form a more perfect union” follows right after “We the People” in the Constitutions’ first sentence.  The problem is we don’t know who to follow right now in order to form a more perfect union.

Oh, and one more thing.  Nothing is free, not even freedom.  Nothing.

 

 

 

 

Walk the Walk and Talk the Talk, Part 2

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It seems like a week ago, but it wasn’t.  Some nine weeks ago we wrote the following.

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  

We’ll list the win total, it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  

And, in short order we took Kansas over, Oregon over, Kentucky under, Mississippi St. under, and Texas A&M over.  Yesterday we updated the first 3 of our 5 picks.  Today, with a mere five weeks left to the regular season we decided (actually a favorite reader of ours suggested yesterday) to review the final 2.   After all if you are going to talk the talk, you better be prepared to walk the walk.

2.  Mississippi St. under 8 wins, bet $155 to win $100, current record 3-5

– After a 3-1 start against two cupcakes and Kentucky, the Bulldogs hit the proverbial wall.  They have lost four in a row as the schedule stiffened.

– Head Coach Joe Moorhead has to be scratching his head.  And, Bulldog alumni must be scratching theirs as well.  And, the mascot must be scratching his………  Dan Mullen took this program to high points not seen around StarkVegas in many moons.  Moorhead is in a tough spot following that act.  The SEC West is tough.  Recruiting to Starkville is tougher.

– Worst outcome.  There is no worst case for the bet unless a tornado hits Starkville (which could cause improvements actually)and cancels a game or a portion thereof nullifying the bet.

– Best outcome.  State finishes all four contests with a win or a loss.  The bet is already a win as the win total maxes out at seven even if State runs the tables.

– Outlook.  With a road trip to Arkansas, a layup (Abilene Christian University-seriously?), a loss to Bama, and an Egg Bowl battle with Ole Miss looming, we smell rotten eggs at 2-2.  A 5-7 record is a win for BBR and a big step back for Moorhead and staff.

– Prediction.  Moorhead gets one more year to right the ship, and the bet has already won $100.

1.Texas A&M over 7 1/2 wins, bet $120 to win $100, current record 5-3

– With arguably the toughest schedule in the nation A&M has won the games they were favored in and lost those that they were underdogs.

– In year two of his iron clad, ten year contract HC Jimbo Fisher, aka the QB whisperer, hasn’t whispered the right sweet nothings into the ear of second year starting QB Kellon Mond.  Hence, the hoped for leap forward has been sideways.

Worst Outcome.  A&M continues to win the winnable ones and lose the expected ones and the bet loses by 1/2 game as they finish 7-5.

Best Outcome.  The Aggies upset either Georgia or LSU on the road and win the easier remaining home games and they finish 8-4.

Outlook.  This one is tough.  We thought that they would beat Auburn which would have gotten the likely record to 8-4, but they didn’t.  SC beat Georgia in Athens two weeks ago.  Can it happen again?  Sure.  If Florida beats Georgia this weekend, thereby knocking Georgia out of the playoff picture, we’ll then predict an Aggie late season win.  If Georgia has to beat the Aggies to get to ATL for the SEC Championship game we think they will hold serve between the hedges.

Prediction.  We’ve stuck our neck out this far, why not once more?  Aggies beat UTSA and SC at home and Georgia there.  LSU beats A&M to close the season.  Aggies go 8-4 and the bet wins $100.

If our latest predictions hold true a 4-1 record and a nice payoff await.  Worst case we are probably looking at 3-2 and a positive payoff.

One prediction we can safely make is that we will be back next year with more season long predictions v. the win total.  The bet never fails to entertain, and it lasts all season long.  Well it does unless you’re Joe Moorhead, thankfully.

 

 

 

Walk the Walk and Talk the Talk

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It seems like a week ago, but it wasn’t.  Some nine weeks ago we wrote the following.

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most. 

And, in short order we took Kansas over, Oregon over, Kentucky under, Mississippi St. under, and Texas A&M over.  Today, with a mere five weeks left to the regular season we decided (actually a favorite reader of ours suggested) to review the first 3 of our 5 picks.   After all if you are going to talk the talk, you better be prepared to walk the walk. Tomorrow we conclude with the final two.

5.  Kansas over 3 wins, bet $100 to win $130, current record 3-5

–  The Jayhawks lost in week 2 to Coastal Carolina.  Jeez.  The bet would be a winner in just eight weeks if they would have taken care of a non FBS opponent at home.  We repeat, “at home.”

–  Head Coach Les Miles fired his OC on 10/6.  He announced that Brent Dearmon had been promoted to the role in place of Les Koenning, who was dismissed from the program. Koenning was part of Miles’ initial Kansas staff this offseason.  The results were immediately positive.  They put 48 on Texas and 37 on Texas Tech in the last two weeks.

– Worst outcome.  Worst case the bet pushes (no money is lost nor won) as they have three wins already.

– Best outcome.  We win the bet with one more victory with four games left.

– Outlook.  With Kansas St., Iowa St., Oklahoma St., and Baylor left the road is uphill.  They’ll likely be underdogs by double digits in all four contests.

– Prediction.  Ole Les Miles, aka The Mad Hatter, pulls one more Jayhawk win out of his hat.  The bet wins $130.

4.  Oregon over 9 wins, bet $100 to win $105, current record 7-1

– The Ducks led until the last seven seconds in the season opener v. Auburn.  It is their lone loss to date.

– The Ducks are in the meat of their schedule but can rely on an above average defense for once in addition to their always productive O.  The road win at Washington two weeks ago was helpful.  They have their sites set on winning out to get into the playoff conversation. That’s good for the wager.

– Worst outcome.  If the Ducks take on water and paddle to a 1-3 or 0-4 finish the bet could still tank.

– Best outcome.  A 3-1 or 4-0 finish makes the ticket a winner.

– Outlook.  Oregon finishes with at USC, home Arizona, at Arizona St, and home Oregon St.  They are favored by 4 1/2 v USC this week.  It’s the toughest game left for them, though an Arizona St. night road battle could be troublesome.  The two home games are wins if they come to play.  Mario Cristobal has had them ready for every game so far.

– Prediction.  A loss to USC and three wins to close out the season makes their record 10-2.   The bet wins $105.

3.  Kentucky under 6 1/2 wins, bet $100 to win $100, current record 4-4

– The Wildcats up and down season was expected as a program like this would struggle to replace what Bennie Snell and Josh Allen brought to the team last year.

– A bad effort and loss to Miss St. was offset by a put down of Missouri this past weekend 29-7.

– Worst outcome.  With three games remaining at home and all four games winnable, the bet crashes and burns.

– Best outcome.  An improving Tennessee team follows up last week’s win with another this week in Kentucky and Vandy at home knocks them off the week thereafter.  That puts them at 6-6 at best.

– Outlook.  After the two games above they host TN-Martin and Louisville.  TN Martin is a win and if they need a win over in state rival Louisville at home to get bowl eligible they might just show their teeth.

– Prediction. – TN Martin gives them 5 wins.  Can they win two of three from Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Louisville?  The Wildcats O struggles to score against good defenses, but we only see one decent D on this four game dance card.  It says here that they win three of the last four to finish 7-5, but we are still quite hopeful that they could finish 6-6.  The bet loses $100.

Tomorrow we’ll review the final two, Mississippi St. under and Texas A&M over.

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Time for your nuggets.   Time for a diet too.   There were too many boudain balls consumed this weekend by the staff covering the LSU-Auburn game live.  Grilled below are the tasty, but healthy treats with a side of some AP Top 25 NCAA football teams and their performance or lack thereof.

  1.  There is a new #1.  LSU beat it’s third top 10 opponent this season on Saturday.  Auburn fought hard, but came up short on a soaked field Saturday in BR.  For the first time this year the D carried LSU’s O.  The next “Game of the Century,” a term used far too often obviously, takes place in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 9.  LSU travels to Bama for a #1 v. #2. throwdown.  And throw they will.  It’s also a Tua v. Burrow throwdown.   It has a Heisman making moment opportunity written all over it.
  2. THE and Clemson remain entrenched at #3 and #4.  One or both will benefit from the Game of the Century loser’s drop.  Though, the first playoff poll comes out a week from today.  Maybe the committee will see the on field performances differently that the AP writers?  THE still has Penn St. and Michigan on their dance card.  Clemson has a bunch wallflowers.
  3. Poof!  There went Oklahoma.  Undefeated and #5 last week is old news now as Kansas St. put 48 on the Okie D winning 48-41 in a game that wasn’t actually 7 points close.  Penn St. rose one to #5.  You aren’t elite if you cannot play D.
  4. Florida is #6 and can take control of the SEC East this week as it’s one loss team travels to Jacksonville to meet one loss # 8 Georgia.  The World’s Largest Outdoor Party, formerly known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,  will eliminate one team from playoff possibilities and elevate the other.  Speaking of eliminate, did eliminating the word “cocktail” from the moniker reduce the alcohol consumption?  We think not.  But it is PC.
  5.  Here comes the PAC 12.  A week ago Oregon and Utah were #11 and #12.  A week later they have risen to #7 and #9.  Both one loss teams keep stacking up solid victories.  And this coming weekend they’ll have a chance to continue that.  Oregon beat Washington St, always a pesky opponent for them.  Utah shut the door on the California Bears 35-0.  Their objective is to keep winning and meet in the PAC 12 Championship, take a look at the carnage around them, and argue that they deserve a Power Five Conference Champion shot at the final 4.  It’s possible with the collisions that will take place between teams currently ranked higher.
  6.  Oklahoma dropped 5 spots to #10, and Auburn dropped but two to #11 with the above mentioned losses.  Notre Dame dropped from #8 to #16 after Khaki Boy and the Wolverines pounded them in Ann Arbor.  The next time that we need to listen to ND inclusion in the playoff conversation will be 2020 at best.
  7. Two weeks ago undefeated Wisconsin was sitting pretty at #5.  Two weeks and two ugly losses later, the most recent a 38-7 trouncing by THE, Whisky checks in at #18.
  8.  Their losses have opened the door for someone to walk through from the west side of the BIG 10 to be a double digit dog to either THE or Penn St. in that conference championship tussle.  Golden Gophers any one?  Yep.  The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 8-0 and stand at unlucky #13.  Minnie has played exactly zero ranked opponents to date.  But, they’ve beaten everyone that they have played.  With Penn St., Iowa, and Wisconsin dead ahead for Minnie, beating everyone that they have yet to play will be a tall task.
  9.  Baylor and SMU have also beaten everyone that they have played.  They are both 8-0 and sit at #12 and #18 respectively.  Baylor has a path as Texas and Oklahoma loom.  Beat them both and shout your name loudly.  Maybe the playoff committee will hear you.  SMU really doesn’t.  Speaking of Texas, they fell all of the way out of the top 25 with a 37-27 loss to TCU.  Like Oklahoma, Texas is soft on D.
  10. Some early lines are out.  Oregon travels to USC and is a 4 1/2 point pick.  Utah travels to Washington and is a 2 point fav.  The PAC 12 gets picture gets much clearer come midnight Saturday EST.  Also, after a few cocktails in Jacksonville, Georgia will be a four point favorite over Florida.

It looks like a salad week to me.

..

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Nine

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Vegas giveth.  Vegas taketh.

We should have known better.  Abby’s nose was warm to the touch last week.  She felt like a dog.   But she insisted that she had a hunch about the games and the lines.  It turns out that she was right on her hunch bet again and wrong on most all else.

For the season she has won 19 games and lost 21.  More importantly she has collected 38 bones and lost 37.  If you haven’t been on her hunch bet after a 9-2 season last year, you should be on it this year.  It’s now 7 wins against only 2 losses.  Bow wow!

Abby’s nose is cool bordering on cold and so is the fall football weather.   Abby’s chasing winners this week, no more parked cars.

Mississippi St v. Texas A&M -10 1/2 —  In a marron and white v. maroon and white game Abby likes the home unis.  A&M has more to play for.  Moo St. looks like it might be closing down shop for a long winter.  Two bones.

Indiana v. Nebraska -2 1/2 —  In a red and white v. red and white game Abby likes the home unis.  As the morning frost melts Scott Frost’s tenure at Lincoln needs to heat up.  Indiana is a surprising 5-2, but Big Red rolls by 14.  Two bones.

Texas -1 1/2 v. TCU  —  Tom Herman’s tenure at Texas needs to warm up, too.  And, Texas needs a defense.  It took 50 points and a last second field goal for them to dispatch Kansas.  Jeez.  Abby thinks Herman gets them going this week, and the Burnt Orange rolls by 14.  Two bones.

Texas Tech v. Kansas +3 1/2 —  Les Miles fired his previous OC three games in after they scored all of seven on Costal Carolina.  The result a few weeks later?  They put 48 on Texas last week.  If only he did the same at LSU a few years back.  Jeez.  Jayhawks win this one straight up.  Two bones.

California +21 1/2 v. Utah —  Abby continues to contend that no one in the PAC 12 should be favored over anyone else by 14 much less 21 and change.  This seems like a lot of points in what should be a low scoring game.  One bone.

On a hunch take Washington St. plus 14 1/2 at Oregon.  Abby continues to contend that no one in the PAC 12 should be favored over anyone else by 14.   Washington St. usually plays the Ducks pretty closely.   Maybe the Cougars can lose a close shootout after Oregon’s big road win over Washington a week ago.

Woof.

Raising the Bar

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Setting goals is a tricky business.  Set them too high and you’ll disappoint yourself and those that bought into the false hope.  Set them too low and achieving them isn’t really a success nor a motivator.   Setting goals for sport teams is equally tricky for the exact same reasons.  Fan support and donor support hang in the balance.

Let’s use a Gamecock as a Guinea pig for an example.  What is a realistic yearly goal for Head Coach Will Muschamp and his South Carolina football team?

SC competes in the SEC East.  They play Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt each year in the east.  They have Texas A&M from the west as their designated rivalry yearly game and rotate among Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St,, Ole Miss, and Arkansas as their other west opponent.  You have four SEC games at home, and four on the road each year.   They select/control who their four out of conference opponents are and where they play those games.   One choice that they always make is Clemson.  The instate rivalry “Palmetto Bowl” is 115 games old and counting.

It should be noted that this year’s schedule rotated in the west to a tussle with Alabama.  All of the above makes one wince.  Survive that gauntlet and the reward is the SEC Championship Game against the best from the west and a to be determined bowl game.  SC joined the SEC in 1970.  A championship still escapes them.

Ready to set the goal to keep everyone moving in the same direction to achieve it?  Good luck.  Good luck unless some realism, if not publicly stated, is at least privately understood.

After being impatient in latter part of the 20th Century,  SC has been patient in the 21st.  Lou Holtz in 2000 gave way to Steve Spurrier in 2005, who retired in 2015.  Enter volatile Will Muschamp.  Four years later SC competes hard on the field.  Their upset of Georgia in Athens two weeks ago proves that.  The report card for Holtz was a 45% winning percentage turning around a downtrodden program in four years, 63% under the ole ball coach, and 55% for Muschamp’s tenure.

Is Oklahoma St. or Texas Tech the SC of the BIG 12?  Is Michigan St. or Minnesota the SC of the BIG 10.  Is Washington St. or California the SC of the PAC 12?  It seems so.  So do you accept the bar and try to shimmy over it more than not?  Or do you raise the bar and attempt to do what you haven’t done in a long, long time or even forever?

How do you move up to that higher bar?  Money, cheat, culture, system?

Okie St. chose the money route thanks to T. Boone Pickens.  Mike Gundy’s team has had a few moments, but no breakthrough yet.  Tillman Fertitta is pouring money into Houston to try the same from a lower bar.

Ole Miss chose the dishonest route.  Hugh Freeze’s college coaching career is on ice because of it, and Ole Miss is fighting to stay out of the cellar in the SEC West.

Mike Leach brought his fun and gun system and mentality to Wash St.  It’s been fun, but it too hasn’t broken through.

Dabo Swinney changed the culture and expectations at Clemson though they had a more storied past to recapture the magic v. establish it.

We think that a game Muschamp is going the culture route hoping recruiting and money will follow.  His 3-4 record season to date matches his recruiting rankings relative to his competition thus far.  A season ending date with Clemson still looms.  Jeez.

There’s much satisfaction and financial reward for whomever can sustainably break through to challenge the big boys.

It’s an admirable goal.  Is it realistic?

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s Monday and it’s time to take a look at the NCAA football  and it’s AP Top 25.  Week eight is in the books, and we cook up ten nuggets to review it.

  1.  Alabama remains entrenched at #1.  They won the home game against Tennessee 35-13, and lost a QB in the process.  Tua Tagovailoa underwent surgery for a high ankle sprain yesterday and is expected to be back for the early November showdown with LSU, who remains at #2 after a 36-13 win at Mississippi St.
  2.  Clemson’s won 45-10 over Louisville on the field.  But, off of the field they lost one place in the polls.  They are now #4 after Dabo Swinney told reporters that his sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence had four really bad plays in the game.  Their loss was THE Ohio St University’s gain as THE climbed to three.  THE beat Northwestern all sixty minutes long in a 52-3 Friday night blowout.
  3. Oklahoma #5 and Penn St #6 round out the top six teams all with 7-0 records.  Oklahoma stayed at #5 while Penn St jumped into the spot formerly occupied by fellow Big 10 school Wisconsin.  Whisky looked hungover all Saturday afternoon losing to lowly Illinois 24-23.  James McCourt kicked a 39-yard field as time expired and Illinois pulled off the biggest upset of the college football season bar none.  The Badgers dropped a steep seven spots to #13.  Their playoff dreams are now a headache and need two aspirin.  Penn St jumped to a 21-0 lead at home over Michigan then held on to win 28-21.  Jim Harbaugh’s team suffered another loss to a big time team in a Big Ten game in a big time moment.  He decided to question the officiating. “It’ll be interesting to compare some of the different scenarios in the game, in terms of calls,” Harbaugh said.  Perhaps a look in the mirror would be interesting as well.
  4. Florida and Notre Dame begin the parade of 6-1 clubs at #7 and # 8 respectively.  Florida hoped over ND moving from 9 to 7 a week after their first loss as they fought off a game South Carolina Gamecocks team in the rain in SC.  Will Muschamp had a few choice words for a few refs after a few bad calls and non calls post game.  He said he had nothing more to say about it.  Then, almost under his breath he uttered “gutless” describing the refs decision to flag him for unsportsmanlike conduct.    His wallet might be a few “dollars less” after the NCAA takes a look.  ND was idle before they travel to Michigan this week.
  5. Auburn jumped two spots back into the top ten at #9 after running over Arkansas 51-10.  Arkansas is a bad football team.  Their fake punt, which you can see here, could be the worst designed special teams play, well, ever.  The Auburn Tigers travel to Baton Rouge for a top ten showdown/throwdown with the LSU Tigers Saturday.
  6.  Georgia wore down Kentucky 21-0 in the mud and rain in Athens a week after they were upset by SC.  Georgia threw for a measly 35 yards all game on just 12 attempts.  Kentucky one upped that, or one downed that, throwing for a measly 17 yards on 18 attempts.  If you missed the game you don’t have to brag about it.
  7. Oregon and Utah rep the PAC 12 and are ranked #11 and #12.  Oregon’s season opening, last seven seconds loss to Auburn is deep in the rear view mirror now.  The Ducks went to Washington and escaped with a fine 35-31 win.  They’ll need help to climb back into any playoff discussion.  But with only two road games left of the five remaining, at USC and at #24 Arizona St., they do have an outside shot as others ahead of them square off.
  8.  Baylor says hello, remaining undefeated after an impressive road win at Oklahoma St. 45-21.  The Bears are 7-0 and have Texas and Oklahoma visiting Waco in mid November.  Baylor moved up four spots from 18 to 14.
  9. SMU 7-0, Minnesota 7-0, and Appalachian St. 6-0 round out the undefeated teams at #16, #17, and #21 respectively.  Much like Rodney Dangerfield it seems they get no respect.  Boise St. was undefeated but got bounced at BYU by the Cougars.  Boise St fell from 14 all the way down to 22.
  10. A few early lines are out.  THE Ohio St. U is a home 14 point favorite over Wisconsin.  LSU is a home 12 1/2 point favorite over Auburn.  Michigan is a surprising home 2 1/2 point favorite over the Fighting Irish.

Don’t leave your plate in the sink.  Put it in the dish washer please.

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 8

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby began the second half of the NCAA football season more like a lion roaring than a dog barking last week.  Vegas called and offered her a comped dog suite this week complete with a mani and pedi bar, lap pool, and a dog run in hopes of getting her back to the sports book.  For the week she won four of five against the spread, collected a very impressive eight of nine bones, and punched the hunch bet ticket yet again.  Vegas needs to try to get even.

For the season Abby’s four paws stand at 19 wins and 16 losses, winning 38 and losing 29 bones wagered, and improved her hunch bet to a gaudy six wins and only two losses.

As a reminder each bone is the hypothetical equivalent of betting $11 to win $10 as Vegas takes the $1 juice when they win.  So in winning 38 bones she has collected $380 (38 x $10).  In losing 29 bones she has lost $319 (29 x $11).  The net take season to date is $61 on a win percentage of 57% (38/67).   If you bet $11 on each hunch bet you would have won $60 while giving back only $22.  Enough with the calculus, and on to this week’s opportunities.

It’s big spreads and big home dogs week.  Abby loves home dogs, but is wary of big home dogs and big favorites.  In the top 6 Alabama, LSU, THE, Clemson and Wisconsin are all on the road and are favored by an average of 27 points while Oklahoma is a 33 1/2 home favorite.  Woof!  Be careful.

Purdue v. Iowa -17 —  Iowa’s offensive scores are few and far in between.  Iowa’s defensive scores allowed are even fewer and farther in between.  Purdue has underwhelmed Abby to this point.  It’s a Big 10 grind and an Iowa win 33-10 with a late cover.  One bone.

Florida -5 v. South Carolina and Under 46 1/2 —  Will Muschamp, fresh off of a huge road upset over Georgia, hopes that his team can keep the mojo going at home.  Dan Mullen, fresh off of a 42-28 LSU road loss, hopes his Gators can recapture the mojo that lead to the 6-0 start.  Abby will pair the Gator win with the under.  Both teams scored a lot last week, while this one sets up to be a slobber knocker.  One bone to win Three Bones.

Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +4—  Has Abby ever mentioned that she loves home dogs?

The Orangemen’s season is basically on the line here.  They are one of the bigger disappointments season to date in the Power Five Conferences.  Abby is sniffing an outright win, but will wag her tail if she gets a cover.  Two bones.

Florida St. +2 v. Wake Forest —  Willie Taggert said last week that his team is close to being “right there” again in the ACC.  Then they went out and got worked by the Clemson Tigers.  If there is any fight left in the Seminoles (seems like an offensive name to Abby) they’ll win straight up.  Two bones.

Baylor v. Oklahoma St -4 —  On paper this almost seems like the wrong team is favored.  Abby has been long on the resurgent Bears all year.  But, the line and the spot seem right for a Cowboy victory by about a touchdown.  We’ll call it 38-31 Okie St.  One bone.

Oregon v. Washington +3 —  Abby chases ducks whenever possible.  Her Husky friend does the same.  Oregon seems to be the best in the west by a fair margin.  But, we see two loses on their tail feathers and this is the second and final one.  One Bone.

On a hunch Abby is taking LSU v. Mississippi St. under 62 total points.  LSU has nearly averaged that on their own this year.  But.  This game is sandwiched in between Florida and Auburn.  LSU runs the ball a lot this week, rests several regulars, serves a few more suspensions, and plays some D to hold Moo St. to less than 17.

Start spreading the news.  Abby also likes the ball in Verlander’s hand tonight.

Woof!