Author: thependulumswings staff

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 3

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby urged caution last week, and a tricky week 2 in college football betting it was for all.  No bets are free unlike all of the promises of free she heard last night in Houston emanating from the ten Democratic Presidential Debate podiums where begging was very much in style.

Through two weeks Abby is a below average 4 games of 10 picked correctly.  More importantly she’s gathered 11 of 21 bones, just enough to balance the checkbook an have a gnaw too. Her hunch bet (Maryland -1.5) covered and then some.  To the picks we go.

Kansas St. @ Miss St. -7.5 —  Who is the loneliest person in Starkville?  The tooth fairy of course.  Let the cowbells ring.  This one won’t be close.  Three bones.

NC St. @ West Virginia +7 —  Is NC St. that good to be made a 7 point road favorite?  Is WVa that bad to be made a 7 point home dog?  One bone.

Maryland @ Temple +7 —  Maryland has scored 142 points in two games, good for the fourth highest point total in NCAA history.  The nation took notice.  We think they spent this week admiring the shine on their Terrapin shell.  One bone.

USC @ BYU +4 —  We aren’t sure that the correct team is favored here.  We thought about the money line.  Abby will settle for making money at plus 4.  One bone.

Florida -8 @ Kentucky —  Dan Mullen might be one of the most underrated Power 5 college coaches in America.  Florida’s D is quick to the ball and wraps up like a Gator death roll.  Kentucky’s QB is out and you don’t replace Josh Allen and Bennie Snell easily in Lexington.  Close, but the Gators cover late.  Two bones.

On a hunch Abby likes Arizona St. plus 15 and 1/2 to cover v. Michigan St.  The over/ under in the game is only 41 and 1/2.  It’s so low.  It’s so, so low.  On hunch #2 we’ll take under on a zig bet when others zag.

And, lastly we have an important announcement.  Abby is considering a run for President.  Her platform does not include free universal veterinarian care for pooches nor free meals for strays.  She has, however,  promised to fulfill her obligation to BBR throughout this football season.   Whew!

Woof!

It’s Just Week Two, But…..

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Are you ready for some Thursday Night Football?  The 0-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Charlotte to face the 0-1 Carolina Panthers this evening.  ” Ho hum,” you say?  Understood.

The teams battle a quick four days after season opening losses.  And both teams lost at home to teams who traveled to time zones from the west to beat them.  The LA Rams beat Carolina 30-27, while the SF 49ers left the Tampa Bay area with a 31-17 victory.

If you’re underwhelmed imagine if you are a fan of one of the two staring 0-2 in the face five days after the season opened.  And, this game is a division game which carries added importance.   “One and one” sounds ok.  “Oh and two” sounds early season dreadful.

And, eight times out of nine, season long dreadful it is.  Since 2007, 91 teams have started 0-2.  Only 10 of them (10.9 percent) have turned the sluggish start around and made the playoffs.   One of those (the 2008 Chargers) made it with an 8-8 record. The Saints last season, the Dolphins in 2016, the Texans and Seahawks in 2015, the Colts from 2014, the 2013 Panthers, the Dolphins, Chargers and Vikings in 2008, and the 2007 Giants are the only others.  And, of course, that Giants team won the Super Bowl that season.

Carolina missed the playoffs in 2018 with a 7-9 record.  Tampa Bay has not been to the playoffs since 2007.  TB has finished last in the NFC South in seven of the last eight woeful years.

In the NFL you don’t need to look too much further than quarterback play to figure out who is ascending in the league and who has hit bottom.  For Carolina good, but inconsistent quarterbacking by Cam Newton tells most of the story.  Tonight he starts his 125th game as a pro.  He’s won 68, lost 54, and tied 1.  His career qb rating is 86.3.  Seventeen active QB’s with more than 50 starts rank higher.  In his defense his surrounding offensive cast hasn’t always been the best.  However, the Carolina defense has usually been between good and very good.  Cam is a sneaky 30, but in the QB friendly league that the NFL has become, he’s still got time to write better chapters in his story.  It’s time to start.

The Jameis Winston story, however, is another story.  Winston starts game 56 of his career tonight.  His record is a dreadful 21-24.  Winston’s QB rating is a shade higher than Newton’s at 87.0.   Fifteen active QB’s with more than 50 starts rank higher.   He played one year under Lovie Smith and three under recently fired Dirk Koetter.  Supposed QB whisperer Bruce Ariens now takes the helm.   Stability in the TB coaching has been wanting.  Also, in his defense his team’s defensive cast hasn’t been good.  However, the weapons around Winston have been solid, and sometimes border very good.  Four seasons in plus game one of five,and only 25 years old, he has plenty of time to write better chapters in his story.  Like Cam, it’s time to start.  Past time really.  Winston’s not looked at around the league as a leader, and his maturity has been questioned.  And “been questioned” is being nice.

Remember, “oh and two” means you sit home in January eight times of nine.  It might be week two, but this underwhelming match up could be a pivot point for both franchises.

On May 16, 2018, David Tepper, formerly a minority owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers, finalized an agreement to purchase the Panthers. The sale price was nearly $2.3 billion, a record.  Ron Rivera has been head coach for them since 2010.  You don’t shell out 2.3 billion for average.  If you miss the playoff this year does Ron go?  Cam’s deal is through 2020.  A new coach would have a year to work with him.

For Tampa, Ariens either fixes Winston this year, or not.  If not, Winston is likely out.  His contract expires after this season.

For a “ho hum” game, played just five days into the season, more is on the line than might normally meet the eye.

Which QB will pass the ball and the eyeball test best?

 

 

 

,

Too Many Cooks Spoil the Broth.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Yesterday the US Census Department released it’s annual report Income and Poverty in the United States:2018.  It’s 77 pages of some heavy statistical comparisons of who we are, how much we make, and how we are doing v. previous years.   In general there is pretty good news in it.

More Americans than ever are working.  Wages rose an average of 3.3% for men and women alike.  The percent of families and singles living in poverty reached record lows.  These wins occurred regardless of skin color as well.   Economists find much to like during a deep dive into deep details.

Trump’s unprecedented combination of  “Hire American” and economic growth policies is helping create those wage gains nationwide.  The growth policies pressure companies to hire more workers.

What follows is excerpted from a Breibart article printed yesterday.

The “Hire American” policy suppresses the inflow of legal and illegal migrants and also blocks demands from businesses for special infusions of cheap foreign labor, such as extra refugees, asylum-seekers, visa workers, and legal immigrants. 

Trump’s low-immigration policies have prompted many progressives and Democrats to claim he is racist. But his growth and “Hire American” combination is pressuring companies to compete for Americans workers — including blacks and Latinos — by offering higher wages and better benefits.

One expected impact of the shortage is a growing number of non-white Americans who are being hired and are getting wage increases.

Each year about 4 million Americans enter the workforce after high school or college graduation.  This includes about 800k of more highly skilled professionals in  the business, engineering , medical, etc. world.

But the federal government then imports about 1.1 million legal immigrants and refreshes a resident population of about 1.5 million white-collar visa workers.

The net effect of the two keeps the labor wage market in check even in good economic times.  In tougher times it drives the supply of good workers up and wages are held in check or even decrease.   This makes American workers from all corners unhappy.  This makes the corner of Wall Street happy.  Good supply and low prices of in demand assets is always welcome by shareholders.

Which brings us to claims that Trump is a racist for his immigration and buy/hire America(s).  Maybe he is a racist.  It isn’t today’s post purpose to discuss.

It’s purpose is to ask if you scream about the amount of college debt, are concerned about individuals ability to repay, and want it forgiven by the government should you reexamine the effect of immigration on a society who’s population growth relative to yesteryear has slowed.  If more work qualified immigrants (legal or not) enter the work force percentage wise v. US qualified workers you exacerbate the problem.

Wall St. benefits.  Americans scream that the rich get richer.   Students struggle with loans.  Americans scream that we should help them. Millennials struggle to find work.  Americans scream about the labor market.  Wages rise too slowly.  Americans scream about the income gap.

A good recipe has just the right amount of ingredients working together for a better meal.   Balancing the outcome is a very delicate process.  Put too much of one ingredient in and you spoil the soup.  There is a big pot on the stove right now.  Shouldn’t we step back and let the head chef decide how much of one is too much of one?  After all can’t we agree that home cooked meals taste best?

Ten Piece Nuggets- Sports

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

NCAA, NFL, and MLB dominate the menu today.   There is much to chew on.  The Ten Piece Nuggets are served.

  1. The new AP Top 25 poll is out following Week 2 action.   LSU has moved into the top five after beating Texas 45-38 in a thrilling affair in Austin on Saturday night. With LSU jumping Oklahoma to take the No. 4 spot, the SEC now has three of the top four teams in the country, as the Tigers join No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Georgia.
  2. It’s very early in the season and these things sort themselves out when conference play starts in earnest.   The Big 10 might have plenty to say about it as well.  They check in at spots 6,10,13,14,18,19, and 21.  So, that’s seven spots for the Big 10 conference that actually has 14 teams.  Got it?
  3. Big 10 Maryland’s got it.  They are #21 in the poll after a 63-20 pounding of Syracuse Saturday.  This follows up a 79-0 blasting of Howard.  The combined 142 points are the fourth most in NCAA history in the first two games of any season.  It was but a few years ago that the Terrapins were lower than a turtle’s belly.  Kudos to former New Mexico HC and Bama OC Mike Locksley.  This is year one for him in the Maryland HC role after a 1-5 interim record when he took over for fired Randy Edsall from the Maryland staff in 2015.
  4. The Big 10 is scoring big time too.  Penn State has scored 124 points, Wisconsin 110, Ohio St 87, and even Indiana has 86, all in two games.  Maybe the rust belt has rolled out some shiny new offense models off of the assembly lines.   It’s on to conference play for them mostly as well.  Though Maryland goes to Temple, and curiously is only a 7 point favorite.
  5.  It wasn’t the best weekend for the great state of Texas in football.  The Longhorns played well, especially on offense,  but lost to LSU as mentioned.  Texas A&M played pretty good defense, but Clemson played better defense and won 24-10.  BBR thinks both teams are on the rise and wonder when the regular season is done if Texas might be 10-2 or even better and A&M around 9-3.  Texas dropped three spots to 12th, while A&M slid only four to 16th.
  6. Washington lost at home to a California team that actually plays decent defense, 20-19.  That leaves Utah at 11th, Oregon at 15th, and Washington St. at 20th.  The PAC 12 continues to disappoint on the national stage.  Other disappointments have to be Florida St., winners over Louisiana Monroe 45-44 thanks to a missed extra point in extra time.  At least they seem hydrated this week.  Syracuse forgot to play defense against Maryland and surrendered 63.  Two AP writers actually voted for Syracuse to still be in the top 25.  Lots of sportswriters and sportscasters go to Syracuse’s fine journalism school.  This might have been two of them.  Tennessee is now 0-2 with a second non conference loss at home.  This time BYU beat them which was an upgrade from a Georgia Southern debacle a week ago.  Note to the Volunteers, the SEC schedule is way tougher than that.  Pruitt needs to prove it, and soon.
  7.  Swinging over to baseball, we ask, ‘where are the pennant races?’  The closest division has the Cubs trailing the Cardinals by 4 games.  That one isn’t over, but with only about 18 games to go, it isn’t terribly close either.  The race for the best record in baseball is on though.  With it comes playoff home field advantage throughout.  The Yankess and the Astros are tied at a sizzling 95-50, while the Dodgers are two back at 93-52.
  8. Even the wild card races aren’t dealing aces.  While the Indians and A’s are only a half game apart for the last spot in the AL, the Rays look like they are in.  In the NL, Washington is two ahead of Chicago who is two ahead of Arizona for those two wild card spots.  Yawn.
  9. The NFL kicked off season 100.  We refuse to read too much into week one.  Or do we?  New England looked like New England.  Miami is roster purging and lost 59-10 to Baltimore.  If you live in Miami you can always enjoy the beaches, especially South Beach.  Speaking of south, The NFC South is 1-3 and the AFC South is 1-3 after one week.   Do the Falcons make it through the year without a coaching change?  Dan Quinn looked like a rising star four years ago.  Now, it looks like Arthur Blank has a DIY project to fix them.  Luckily he’s a Home Depot kind of guy.
  10. Is Antonio Brown fixable?  Master craftsman Bill Belicheck starts the remodel this week.  It’s a project.   BBR wishes the entire mess would get far less air time.  Brown makes yesteryear guys like Keyshawn Johnson ( “just throw me the damn ball”) look like choir boys.  Less talented players who disrupt like this would be out of the league by now.  This is the last whistle stop for Antonio.  We hope.

Sports has it all in fall.

You may be excused.

Splendid Splinters, Yankee Clippers, and Yordans.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

College football heated up last weekend and some interesting story lines are developing.  We’ll explore them tomorrow in our Ten Piece Nuggets.  But today we want to explore a story in MLB that heated up just as summer heated up.

It was June 9th actually when Yordan Rubin Alvarez got a call from Houston and the Astros promoted him to the big show.  He made his major league debut that afternoon, at the tender age of 21, versus the Baltimore Orioles.  He went 1-3 with a two-run home run in his debut.  And, he hasn’t looked back.

Alvarez, despite missing the first eight days of the month, was named AL Rookie of the Month for June.  He garnered the award again in July.  And, why not, he was given the honor again in August.  He’ll be named AL Rookie of the Year when all is said and done, but it seems like he still has much to say and do in 2019.

Statistical comparisons with such a small sample size (he’s been active for only 70 major league games) are fun.  But often they don’t exactly play out in the future as the recent past would lead you to believe.  Undeterred, we’ll do it anyway.

Alvarez went 4-6 last evening in an Astros 21-1 romp of the hapless Seattle Mariners.  He drove in six runs.  That gives him 70 rbi’s in 70 games!  Ted Williams was only 20 years old in 1939 in his rookie year.  He drove in 145 runs in 149 games.  That’s the MLB rookie record standing tall for 80 years and counting.  Only four other rookies have ever had over 100 rbi’s in their rookie season, Joe DiMaggio among them at 125.

The Astros only have 18 games left, so Alvarez very likely won’t get to the century mark.  But, how many will he get in a total of 88 games?

His OBP is .409.  His slugging percentage is .655.  And, his OPS is 1.064.  Williams  put up .436, .609, and 1.045 respectively in his rookie year.  DiMaggio’s BEST year was  .448, .671, and 1.119.  Baseball is a numbers game.  These numbers put Alvarez, again after only 70 games, in some thin air.

Allow us for a moment to add Alvarez’s stats from Triple A in 56 games to the 70 major league games that he has played.  So in 136 professional games this year he has hit 45 home runs, driven in 141 runs, and hit for a melded .323 average.  His OPS would rise to 1.123.

We aren’t suggesting that Alvarez is the next Splendid Splinter nor the next Yankee Clipper.  His start suggests that he could be the next Yordan Alvarez.  And, that might be very good unto itself.

He defected from Cuba, then established residence in Haiti in 2016.  He signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers as an international free agent in June 2016.  In August 2016, Álvarez was traded from the Dodgers to the Astros for middle reliever Josh Fields.  Cuba and the Dodgers loss is America and the Astros gain.

If you haven’t seen his strong, smooth, balanced, left side swing, you should.  And, you will.  Alvarez will be right in the middle of a stacked Astros lineup when October playoff baseball takes center stage.  The ball just sounds different jumping off of his bat.

May the comparisons never end.

 

 

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 2

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby’s offseason wasn’t spent howling at the moon.  Her rigorous research began to pay off in week one.  While only two of five against the spread picks cashed her bones won were six while her bones lost were only four.  We’ll take 60% money all season long if we can get it.  Her hunch parlay bet split(lost), as the under covered and the over fell just shy.

College football picking isn’t easy.   The smart money in Vegas (called the Sharps) focuses on a narrow window of analytics and doesn’t stray (Abby doesn’t like strays either).

That’s why it’s important for her to risk various amounts (bones) to weight average the risk.  Remember one bone equals $11 risked to win $10.

She urges great caution every year in week two.  Over reactions to good or bad play in week one can feel like chasing parked cars come late Saturday night.

Wake Forest at Rice +20 — Rice isn’t a very good football team.   But, they are beginning to play a bit if D in downtown H town.  And, it’s hot in downtown H Town.  Very.  100 degrees hot is predicted at game time.  That’s why smart Owls only come out at night.  One bone.

UAB -8.5 at Akron —  A little bird is chirping in Abby’s ear about UAB being a smart money play all year.  Abby normally chases birds away, but she’s embracing this one.  Two bones.

Texas A&M +18 at Clemson — Betting against Clemson is indeed like a dog chasing the proverbial parked car.  Abby has a soft spot for Reveille, the A&M mascot, but won’t let puppy love interfere with money.  A&M is a legit dog.  Three bones.

BYU at Tennessee -3.5 —  One of Abby’s credos to live by is to “never kick a blue tick hound when he is down.”  This one falls squarely in the over reaction of week one category.  Tennessee looked like road kill in week one.  Three bones.

Miami -5 at North Carolina —  Dorian the Hurricane is pounding the North Carolina Outer Banks as Abby digs through these lines.  The Miami Hurricanes, if they can fix their woeful OL blocking, will do the same to the Tar Heels.  The sunshine was on Mack Brown for a week.  It’s raining now.  Two bones.

The line of Maryland -1.5 hosting Syracuse makes no doggone sense to us.   When it seems so odd Abby likes to play a hunch bet.  Take Maryland over a 21st ranked Orangeman team that might be looking ahead to hosting Clemson next week.

Enjoy the games and say a prayer for The Bahamas and for New Mexico St.  They go to Tuscaloosa, AL as a 56 point dog!  Woff!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

One Love That Is Shared by Two

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

In a interview with the Washington Post earlier this week noted progressive Barbara Streisand described the United States electoral college system as “antiquated” and advocated replacing it with a system that allows the winner of the popular vote to win the election.

She went on to say, “If I could, I would end the antiquated electoral college. Twice in the last 20 years the popular vote winner was denied the presidency. This is an assault on our democratic principles, where the dictum should hold true: one person, one vote.”

And she isn’t the only voice from the left touting a change away from the now 243 year old way of electing presidents.  South Bend, Indiana mayor and announced Democratic Presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg suggested making the reform as well calling it undemocratic.  Streisand would change it now if she could as she said, while Mayor Pete would do so down the road a bit.

We wonder if of the above is exactly why our founding fathers put the process in place at the outset.   We submit the following counterpoints.
  • That is, they had the foresight to realize that a ground swell could occur.  And when it did a simple popular vote taken on the matter could eliminate the electoral college vote and replace it with, well, a simple popular vote.  Stated differently, over the course of time, this would open up the opportunity to repeatedly manipulate how the president was elected.
  • What Barbara should know, and likely does, is if one person could do anything unilaterally in our union it would not be a democracy.
  • Citing twice in the last 20 years as a reason fails to speak to the fact that a) its happened only five times in 243 years, and b) it happened in a span of 12 years when in 1876 Rutherford B. Hayes won the electoral college and lost the popular vote and again in 1888 when Benjamin Harrison did the same.  The logic sounds much like two bad hurricanes in 20 years proves climate change, so we must change and now.
  • And, we’re supposed to be United States, not necessarily always united people.  States, as an entity all to themselves, have rights in our union and therefore each have two senators with equal say to senators from other states.
  • Buttigieg says that we won’t know in the 2030’s which party would benefit.  One, yes we do Pete.  Two, if we don’t know which would benefit why change from the current, unless you don’t believe in states’ rights.
  • Buttigieg hails from Indiana.   It’s a state that could be the poster child for why the electoral college is in place.  It has a) below average population making the two electoral senate seats important to them, b) is driven by farming creating a need for perspective that is anything but urban (ask them right now if they want a voice in who is the next president considering the effect on the state that tariffs are having).

The 77 year old Oscar winning Streisand might be an expert on “antiquated.”  It looks more and more like her party’s current front runner sure does.   But she is no expert on democratic principles.  She should  know that what she and other left voices are advocating to eliminate this “assault on our democratic principles” is actually an assault on our democratic principles.

Aren’t the real experts our founding fathers?

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Week one has come and gone.  We think it’s always a risk to extrapolate from one game how a team will perform over the year.  But, we are in the risk business.  So, way we go.

  1.  The new AP Top 25 Poll is out.  Clemson and Alabama both dismantled their big underdog opponents.  Clemson received 54 of 62 first place votes.  Alabama scooped up the other eight.  Until further notice they are a clear one and two.
  2.  The rest of the top ten remained very much the same as well.  Underdogs mostly were so for a reason facing the big boys.
  3. Oregon could have beat Auburn but did not.  It was a chance for a PAC 12 team to send an early signal to the US that the conference belongs in the conversation later in the year.   There is plenty of football left but chances like this don’t come along to often once conference play starts.
  4.  The PAC 12 wasn’t done underwhelming though.  Friday night Cincinnati bounced UCLA.  UCLA looked uninspired and soft as Charmin on defense.   Chip Kelly hasn’t done much to regain his lofty status when he departed Oregon for the NFL.
  5. Arizona lost to Hawaii.  Anytime a Power 5 team loses to a non Power 5 eyebrows are raised.  There are plenty of raised eyebrows in Tuscon.   When Swag Kevin Sumlin arrived last year more was expected.   Sumlin’s teams don’t play defense.  Arizona surrendered 45 points, 593 yards in total, with 434 coming via the air.
  6.  PAC 12 Utah looked good handling BYU.  They are one left coast team that plays some D.  Washington might be another.  They worked over Eastern Washington 45-14.  Utah and Washington check in at 12 and 13 in the poll, so there is still time and hope for one or two conference members to emerge as legit national contenders.  It’s the rest of their conference that isn’t helping.
  7.  The race to the bottom of the SEC West is on.  Ole Miss bowed to non Power 5 but good Memphis.  Arkansas struggled at home to beat Portland State 20-13.  They square up Saturday.  The loser has a leg up (or is it down) on the race to the bottom.
  8.  But they weren’t the biggest SEC disappointments.  Nope, and it’s not even close.  The honeymoon is over for Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt after Saturday’s 38-30 loss to Georgia State.  Pruitt burned up all the good will he built in 2018 with upset victories over Auburn and Kentucky.  Some Saban proteges like Jimbo Fisher and Kirby Smart have thrived.  Some like Derek Dooley and Jim McElwain have not.  Pruitt sits in between for now as he just gets year two started.  But in the highly paid SEC coaching business it’s win or else.
  9.  Florida St. and Miami didn’t help the ACC argument.  At least they took on good to real good opponents in week one, so we”ll watch them from here.  Florida St. gave up 38 at home to Boise St.  Miami surrendered 10 sacks to an aggressive Florida defense in a sloppily played game that Florida held on to win.  There is Clemson in the ACC, and there are all others.  If you wanted to bet over the season win total for Clemson, the line was 11 and 1/2 games.  So you had to think they would run the regular season table.  In the next two weeks they host Texas A&M and travel to #21 Syracuse.  If they are 3-0 after that, you can  pay windmake plans to head to the pay window early cause the schedule won’t have on team on it (home or away) that isn’t the underdog by 15 or more.
  10. A&M is getting 17 and 1/2 in that game.  Bama is favored by 55 over New Mexico St.  55.  It’s rare that you see a line that high.  Usually Vegas will just take the game off of the board.  The crew from ESPN head to Austin for College Gameday.  LSU heads there as a 5.5 favorite for now.  The line has moved 3 points in ten days.   It’s early but give us A&M and LSU.  We’ll skip the Bama game like Vegas should have.

We wait forever for the season.  It’s here.  Enjoy.

All Aboard in College Station

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one more big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  So far we have shared four of our selections on over or under the win totals.   A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, both sides of the bet and it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most.  Our favorite pick follows after the drum roll provided by the historic Fightin’ Texas A&M Aggie Band.

Texas A&M (7 and 1/2 wins, over -120, under -110)

  • On the surface this choice might surprise.   After all, A&M probably has the hardest schedule in the nation.  They have road games at Clemson, Georgia, and LSU.  And, Alabama rolls in to College Station like a freight train as well.  Their entire schedule is here.
  • One tier down is Auburn, Mississippi St., and South Carolina.  The lower half SEC West foes Arkansas and Ole Miss complete the conference scheduling.
  • Texas St., Lamar, and UTSA out of conference are three very needed breathers interspersed on the fall death march.
  • Jimbo Fisher enters year two of his needed cultural remake of the Aggies.  Kellen Mond improved over the last half of last season.  Jimbo, the QB whisperer, continues to mold the Mo(u)nd of clay.
  • The offense will miss Jace Sternberger at tight end and Erik McCoy at center.  Both will play well on Sunday, not Saturday, this fall.  But the receiving corp is deep and talented.  The running backs are more than serviceable.  The offensive line will be just fine.
  • The defense loses five solid defenders from a tough to run on group.  But, still they return five starters.
  • Fisher’s first recruiting class ranked third nationally.  Expect significant contributions from there as the season unfolds.

After last year’s, last game, seven overtime win over LSU Fisher addressed the group.  He said, “this is the last time we’ll celebrate finishing second in the SEC West.”  The buy in on the sell in is nearly complete.

We expect A&M to upset one of Clemson, Georgia, Alabama,  or LSU.  They are good enough and coached top to bottom quite well.  We expect them to beat Auburn at home and run the table on the rest of the tough Western Division. South Carolina(east opponent #2) isn’t that good and the game is in Aggieland.

A&M will score early and often this year.  Their defense will surrender some early but gain steam late.

We see the Aggies as a 9-3 team best case, and 8-4 worst case.

Give us the over on the Jimbo train that pulled into CS a year ago.

Over and out!

P.S.  LSU’s win total is 8 and 1/2.  We cannot see them as worse than 9-3.  On a hunch (Abby would be so proud) bet take the Tigers at -125 on the over.

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 1

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Year one for Abby’s weekly column was quite a success.  Back by popular demand Abby barks out her thoughts on week one of year two.

College football picking isn’t easy.   The smart money in Vegas (called the Sharps) focuses on a narrow window of analytics and doesn’t stray (Abby doesn’t like strays either).  If the betting line doesn’t meet their tight standards window they punt.

Abby takes a broader view when making her choices.  This can be more difficult.  That’s why it’s important for her to risk various amounts (bones) to weight average the risk.

For her inaugural journey she won 22 bets, lost 23, and tied one against the Vegas lines.  Importantly, she won 59 of 108 bones wagered.  That is a win percentage of 55%.  Each bone is $11 to win $10.  Thus, she finished plus $51 dollars on the year.  It’s didn’t take down the Vegas Strip, but it did afford a better grade of dog food than Kibbles & Bits.

Perhaps her hunch bets should have been part of the bones wagered.  The hunch bet finished year one with nine great wins versus only one loss.  That record will be difficult to match.

Some of her favorite mascots are back to bark words of encouragement to her.  So, as we near the end of the dog days of summer we begin year two with week one, always a dangerous one to sink your canines into.

Heads up.  Two of these winners go tonight.

Utah -5.5 v. BYU  — Abby smells a wide open PAC 12 race once again.  She’s pawing around with the idea of making the Utes the favorites to win it.  Too many good players vs. not enough makes this an easy week one cover.  Three bones.

FIU v. Tulane -2.0— Way down yonder in New Orleans Abby sees a well coached Green Wave team winning a lot of games this year.  Bonus points if you can name the FIU coach.  Butch Davis!  Double bonus points if you can name the Tulane Head coach.  Willie Fritz! Three bones.

Massachusetts +16.5 v. Rutgers  — Abby has been waiting for any chance to spot a flea.  Rutgers it is.   Should Rutgers be favored over anyone by 16?  Abby thinks Dog Obedience School should only be single digit underdogs to them.  Two Bones.

Colorado St. +13.5 v. Colorado –Rocky Mountain High has taken on a whole new meaning in recent years.  Abby wonders if the oddsmakers are smoking a bit of the state’s #1 crop these days with this line.  The Rams might even make this one interesting late in the evening when everyone has the munchies and are ordering pizza.  One bone.

Oregon +3.5 v. Auburn — This is the best game on an opening day season hunt that makes you want to leave your retrievers at home.   Somehow this comes down to a field goal to make the Ducks the hunted and the Plainsman the hunters.  One bone.

Abby is back at it.  Three dogs and two favs.

Oh, and on a hunch, parlay Kent St and Arizona St over 62 with Utah and BYU under 48.5.

Woof!