Author: thependulumswings staff

Border Fireworks Make For Good TV

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Happy Fourth of July!  Happy Independence Day!

Independence?  What exactly is that?  Merriam Webster defines it as “the state of independent.”  Independent is defined as “not requiring or relying on others (as for care or livelihood).” It’s also defined as “showing a desire for freedom.”

Two hundred and forty three years ago tomorrow America declared it’s desire for freedom.  And two hundred and forty three years later we have a crisis at several entry points into our fifty United States on our southern border.  It seems that the desire for freedom from those in other countries has outstripped the supply of well meaning people (border control, government workers,and volunteers) to manage the situation.  Managing it is very tricky of course.  There is the attempt to stop illegal entry, and the attempt to process those caught, and the process of housing them while they are being processed.

Apparently this crisis wasn’t a crisis though when President Trump called it just that as 2018 turned to 2019.  Back then the press and Democrats in positions of congressional leadership said that there is no such thing.  Well, well, well.  A funny thing happened from then until now.  It’s a democratic process unto itself, and a way every four years that we take advantage of our rights that the very freedom provides.  It’s the election process.

And, with that process comes the opportunity to express opinions and outrage over problems and opportunities the nation over.  So, the non crisis is now a crisis.  Ask any Democrat running for office.  Each in the last week or so has expressed disbelief and outrage over the governments failure to adequately house the immigrants and care for the children caught in the fray.   One even shrieked that the compound had run out of toothpaste.  Oh yea, and it’s better to call them “undocumented” than illegal, too.

We’ll start investigations into it as soon as next week.   Congress is very good at that.  They investigate, castigate, and threaten to jail wrong doers.   They remind those drug in to testify that they are under oath.  The truth must be told!

The problem is that the truth was told and it has been told over and over.   Those crossing are doing so illegally.  They have swamped the border and have been for many months now.  But, now, elections are near.  TV time is expensive.

But, but, but.  What if a candidate can get a hungry and gullible press member or 50 of them to follow their every step?  They can walk right up to the fences (cages as the outraged has called them) and lament about how bad a job America is doing. Those “cages” were built several years ago under the Obama administration for all of the right reasons.  It was one part of an attempt to control an out of control border situation.  Then President Obama spoke into TV cameras and said, “don’t come here and don’t send your children here alone.”  He continued,” If you do, you’ll be sent back.”   It made sense then.  It makes sense now.

Record numbers are attempting to get into the country that the party out of the White House tells you how many wrongs exist in it.

You might spend time in a “cage” and you might have forgotten your toothpaste.  But, it must not be such a bad place after all.  People are climbing over walls in record numbers to get here.   Just don’t turn on your TV till after November 2020.  It seems that a few folks have a different opinion.  It’s another freedom.  Freedom of speech.

Enjoy the baseball and the fireworks.  And, please pass the hot dogs and apple pie this way.

 

 

I’ll Scratch Your Back

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Did you get paid yesterday?  It’s very likely that you did.  It was the end of the month.   You always and only get paid for what you have earned.  Paychecks are remuneration for the past.  Joe Biden likely got paid as well, and twice if he takes Social Security.   His checks come from the US Government.  They are a federal government pension plan check and Social Security check.  He earned them over his many years of civil service to our country based on how the system is set up.

But, he is learning rapidly, recently, that there isn’t too much civil about our country today.  And, he is learning rapidly that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.  You have to earn it.   And, he is learning that how the system works today has little to do with how it was set up “back in the day.”

Back in the day Ronald Reagan invited Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill, an old curmudgeon, old school Democrat from Bahhhstan, down the hill for an occasional tip o’ the cup of the whiskey of his choice.  Together they would iron out their differences (compromise) as the ice was melting and get to a position where both felt good bringing back a deal to their respective parties.  And, both thought that America had won.

Even as recently as 2011, President Obama was caught on a hot mic as leaned over and told Russian Dmitry Medvedev to give him time to get reelected and he could work out a deal with them.  Medvedev promised to relay the info to Putin.  You can see it here.

So, maybe it surprised Sleepy Joe when Kamala Harris took him to the woodshed last week on the nationally televised debate over his “working relationship” with known segregationists in Congress a couple of decades back.  It shouldn’t have.  He already told us that he got that past behaviors don’t translate to today’s world or political climate.  “I get it, I get it,” he said.  You can see him explain that over and over here.

We even had the left leaning media over the weekend tell us how bad, or reckless, or unprepared President Trump was in reaching out to Kim Jung Un unexpectedly while he was in Japan for an impromptu stroll on the communist land of North Korea.

You remember “hold your friends close and your enemies closer,” don’t you?  Apparently, embraces of any sort with friend or foe are now old school.

The new school seems to be that there is only one way.  And, when a party with power decides on a path it expects all to toe the line, no exceptions, no negotiations.  So, we wonder, is Joe Biden someone who can operate in the new world order?

And, most of all, does he want to earn his way?  His demeanor daily and debate disaster last week scream otherwise.

In fact, wasn’t his time to strike when he was VP to the two term, popular President Barrack Obama?  History shows that VP’s run immediately after whom they serve under can run no longer.  Biden deferred to Hillary Clinton for some reason.  Maybe he was tired even back then.  As many commercials remind us, the aging process waits for no one.  Four years later, Joe is four years older.

Obama came from left field to win, then win again.  Trump came from right field to win, and might win again.  Biden looks and sounds more like McCain, Romney, Hillary, and Jeb Bush than his fellow Democratic nominee hopefuls.   It’s way too early to predict, but the country is in a very different place.

And, there is no back to scratch nor whiskey to pour anymore.

Get some rest Joe.

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-Sports

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Summer’s in.  Three major U.S. sports (football. basketball, and hockey) are out.  But the pickings are never slim with our nuggets.  Whether you dine in or take out, enjoy the ten below.

  1.  The ugly Americans scored 50 combined runs in the first two London MLB games ever.  The Yankees out scored the defending Word Series champion Boston Red Sox 17-13 on Saturday and 12-8 on Sunday.  If the Brits like scoring, they got scoring.  The teams combined for 65 hits, 16 doubles and 10 homers.  Only one starting pitcher made it out of the first inning.
  2. BoSox manager Alex Cora was impressed with the 60k screaming fans, but not his team.  “It was eye opening, the last two days, from top to bottom,’’ Red Sox manager Alex Cora. “They’re a lot better than us right now.’’ The Yanks are rolling, even in Europe.
  3. MLB took a bow.  They retrofitted a soccer stadium that was more than serviceable.  They saw 60k fans stand and cheer each of the two days.  All in all it was good to great publicity for a game that often struggles to market itself.  “All of the feedback was that it was fantastic,’’ MLB senior vice president Jim Small said. “So, from a U.S. standpoint, the pitching wasn’t very good, the game was too long, but it was such a great fresh start for baseball here.’’
  4. The Yankees scorching 9-1 record in their last ten has pushed their lead over the Devil Rays to 7 games in the AL East.   Five of the six division leaders enjoy leads of 5.5, 6.5,7, 8 and 12 games.  Only the NL central is close where the Cubs and the Brewers are tied for first.   Half of the season is over.  Are five of the six division races over?   Probably not, but maybe so.  Say it ain’t so.  At least a bunch of teams are still very alive for a wild card spot.
  5.  LPGA’s Michelle Wie announced late last week that she was shutting down her 2019 season due to a chronic wrist injury.  There was no word on whether the wrist was injured when she tweeted to express her dismay via Twitter of Hank Haney’s LPGA U.S. Open remarks.  Haney tweeted out Saturday “Know what last name rhymes with Wie?  Lee!”  No, he didn’t.
  6.  How about a golf clap for first time PGA winner Nate Lashley?  On Sunday, the 36-year-old journeyman, ranked 353rd in the world and the last player to get into the Rocket Mortgage Classic, was a winner for the first time with an impressive six-stroke margin at Detroit Golf Club. He now has a job on the game’s biggest stage for the next two years. A spot in next month’s Open Championship awaits, as does an invitation to next year’s Masters among other perks. That is pretty sweet for a guy with just one previous top-10 on the PGA Tour in 32 starts.  Fifteen long and hard years ago his mother, father, and girlfriend crashed and perished in a small plane accident in Wyoming while attempting to return to Nebraska after watching the then 21 year old Nate play in a tournament for Arizona U. in Oregon.  The golf gods said, “enough already.”  Great story.
  7. The NBA free agency period is off and some teams are playing above the rim.   In a whirlwind of conversations, salary dumps, more conversations, max salary offers, and strokes of genius, several franchises saw significant transformations.   No transformation is bigger than where the Brooklyn Nets are headed however.  After years of also ran status the Nets will land Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and DeAndre Jordan.  If (when really) GM Sean Marks completes these FA signings the Nets will have exactly one player left from the 2015-2016 roster Marks had when he started that won only 21 games.
  8. Durant, baring a major medical miracle, will miss all of the 2019-2020 season with his torn achilles.  That didn’t stop the Nets from throwing max or near max money at him.  It did stop the Knicks who worried publicly about his total recovery.  One borough’s loss was another borough’s gain.  Durant at 90% is still an unselfish player who melds well with other stars and would still be an all star level player himself.
  9. The Miami Heat are believed to be very close to completing a deal that would land Jimmy Butler from the Philadelphia 76ers.  Butler was rumored a week ago to be heading to the Houston Rockets to join Chis Paul and The Beard.  Butler was rumored eight months ago to be headed to those same Rockets.  Houston you may or not have a problem with team chemistry.  But, with exactly zero draft picks this past draft and a HUGE Paul four year deal only entering year two now, you clearly have some hurdles to clear to try to hurdle the Golden State Warriors in the West.  GM Daryl Morey can feel the heat coming from one of restaurant magnet and owner Tillman Fertitta’s kitchens.
  10. However, Tillman Fertitta and 31 owners of NBA franchises may not be “owners” for much longer.   In the league office and in some team’s front offices a push is on to remove that term due to it’s “racial insensitivity” in a league whose players are 75% African American.   In Los Angeles, Steve Ballmer ,who was billed as the owner for the first couple of years after he took over the Clippers is now listed as Chairman on the team’s website.  That change occurred in early 2018.   The term “governor” is being used inside of the league office “for years now” per Commissioner Adam Silver.  “Governor,” really?  Hopefully everyone feels better.

We at least know that you’ll feel better having consumed the above.  It’s Monday, and this work week is at most four days long.  Enjoy.

Ten Piece Nuggets-Debating the Debate

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Round two of two of the first Democratic Presidential Debates went round and around last evening.  Below are ten nuggets for you consumption that cover thoughts on both days with an emphasis on last evening.  Some nuggets are heavy.  Some are light.  All are spiced just right.

  1.  For better or worse, the Democratic Party’s center is now further left than ever.  When the ten hopefuls were asked last evening to raise their hands if their healthcare plans included free medical care for “undocumented” immigrants, ten of ten hands were raised.  Joe Biden looked to his left and right and then figured it was a good idea to follow the crowd.
  2. Sleepy Joe took shots across the bow from Sanders, Stalwell, and Harris.  Three times he was given thirty seconds by one of the five MSNBC moderators to retort.  In none of the three did old Joe seem prepared.  Twice he stopped in mid sentence and said, ” I see that my time is up.”  One wonders, after last evening, if indeed Joe’s time is up.
  3. Right after the debates when the candidates and their “spin handlers” look for microphones to continue driving home what they stand for, Biden spent time talking to a few supporters from the crowd.  When he finally did answer two questions from an unidentified reporter he was somewhat awkwardly pulled away by his wife.  He said something half audible as he left the mic that sounded like, “that’s my wife and I need to go.”  Agreed.
  4. This morning’s New York Post front page has a picture of the ten hands being raised by the candidates answering the medical question above.  The bolded font headline rephrased the question as “Who Wants to Lose the Election?”  Did we mention that the party’s center has shifted left?
  5. Kamala Harris’ shot at Biden stemmed from his resistance decades ago to support school busing to eliminate segregation.  She dramatically used her upbringing in the moment explaining that as a second grader she was in the first generation of that very heated time in America, and what it meant to her.  Clearly she had prepped very well for the moment and delivered her consternation at him flawlessly.  She was kind enough to say that she didn’t believe he was a racist all the while pummeling his legislative past.  Biden looked like he needed smelling salts and a standing eight count from the moderators.
  6.  Winning in debates can mean a lot of things to a lot of candidates.  For example, former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, an evening prior, went from “who?” to “that one impressed me, let me hear more.”  On to round two he goes.  Ditto for Tulsi Gabbard.  On to round two she goes.  For entrepreneur Andrew Yang, it meant advancing his thought of offering $1,000 to each family each month for a cool cost of $3.2 trillion dollars.  He did this while wearing no tie to the proceedings, and speaking for a grand total of three minutes of the 120 minute debate.  A man of few words, afterwards he had no comment on where Yin was.  In to the round file he goes.
  7. But, the clear winner in BBR’s eyes and ears over the last two nights was Senator Kamala Harris.  She commanded the stage with two men to her right (Bernie and Joe) that had way more experience on a stage as big as this.  Her command of the spoken word is darn good, with pauses and inflection interspersed at the right time and in proper doses.  In short, she looks capable of being in it for the long run.
  8.  Mayor Pete Buttigieg certainly held his own.  When he speaks he brings logic and sincerity along for the taking. His answer to the police shooting mess (regardless of how you see the matter) his South Bend town is in was well crafted given the low ceiling.   It’s a really crowded field.  And, at 37, he is short on experience in public service and private employment.   But, given where Obama and Trump came from and where they landed, the White House, the mayor’s campaign will be interesting to watch.  Maybe he’s a 2024 or 2028 guy.
  9. BBR looks forward to the next round when hopefully the money has dried up on half of the field so that real debating can begin.  MSNBC tossed plenty of softballs at plenty of beer league players.  It’s time to go to the next level.  After all, someone needs to ask the field how these candidates intend to pay for all of these promises.  Free healthcare, free college, free community college, college debt forgiveness, unlimited immigration, and a free chicken in every pot sounds quite expensive.  Bernie might already be shaking a tin cup as commuters arrive on Wall St. this AM.
  10. It’s awfully early to predict.  However, an avid reader of BBR put $100 on Donald Trump to win the GOP nomination three years ago at 17-1 when The Donald was still nicknaming Jeb Bush as Low Energy and Marco Rubio as Lil’.  It’s great money if you have that kind of vision.  We don’t know what Kamala Harris’ odds on gaining the nomination are at this moment.  But, we suspect Vegas lowered them a good bit after last night.   They should.  Polls aside, she looks like the one galloping to the front to us.

Get some rest Joe.

 

 

Lefty and Shorty Debate the Debate.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

If Lefty and Shorty were still with us their early morning banter might have gone like this.

Lefty and Shorty sat quietly in the still, humid, summer night air.  It was after 2 AM on their graveyard shift and cars were nowhere to be found.  Lefty- Why did we stay open 24 hours Shorty?  Shorty- So that we can discuss how the first of two Democratic Party debates went last evening.  It was a graveyard for many nominee hopefuls.

Lefty sat to the left of Shorty.  Imagine that.  Shorty sat on the shorter of the two “halves” of the 55 gallon drum. Imagine that.  Each were cut down to size and retrofitted with a soft cushion top.

Lefty- So you watched the two hour debate?  Shorty- Most of it.  I was flipping back and forth with the Commodores.

Lefty- What do you mean?  You were watching an old school concert, too?  Shorty- No.  The Vanderbilt Commodores won the NCAA Baseball National Championship.   Lefty– Oh.  OK.  I guess two straight hours with ten wanna be’s is indeed taxing.  Shorty– Don’t bring up taxing.  I heard it enough last night.  And, “straight” is an insensitive word.

Lefty- What did you think of the MSNBC and NBC broadcast?  Shorty- It was fine except when they had technical difficulties and had to cut away.  That was weird.  Lefty- The hot mics went cold and the cold mics ran hot.  Shorty-Climate change?  Lefty- Oh please.  Shorty- Was it the Russian interference they have all been talking about for two years?  Lefty-Oh please.  Shorty-Maybe Nadler can add it to his list of questions for the July 17 Mueller testimony.

Lefty- Ahem.  So what did you think of the polling leader in this first group, Elizabeth Warren?  Shorty- Well, at least when she spoke she did so in her native (American) tongue.  Lefty- Huh?  Shorty- Well Beto and Booker decided to spend half of their ten minutes of fame practicing their Rosetta Stone Spanish.  Lefty-It was televised on Telemundo as well.  Shorty– Don’t they have closed captioned translating English to Spanish?

Lefty- Good grief.  Moving on, how about Ohio Rep Tim Ryan?  Shorty- If Tim Ryan fell in a forest and no one heard it, would it be sound?  Lefty- This is going well. Shorty-Saving Rep Ryan isn’t coming to a theater near you soon.  Lefty- Did you like any performance?  Shorty- I thought NY Mayor Bill DeBlasio stood tall.  Lefty- Interesting.  Shorty- He must be at least six foot four, and he proved that he is no paper straw man.

Lefty- Former Maryland Rep John Delaney seemed reasonable.  Shorty- He did.  He just looks too much like Tim Conway.  Dorf on debate.  Lefty- You’re irascible Shorty.  Shorty- At least I don’t look and sound angry about everything like Booker.

Lefty- Did anyone do well through your jaundiced eyes?  Shorty- Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro did.  Lefty– Finally some progress.  Shorty- Progressive.

Lefty- How did Washington Governor Jay Inslee do?  Shorty- Who?  Lefty- I guess not so well. Shorty– Was he the one near the far right end of the stage that kept raising his hand?  Lefty- That’s him!  Shorty-  He must have wanted to be excused to go to the genderless bathrooms provided.

Lefty-  This is your last chance.  Did you find it odd that in two hours not one shot was taken at front runner Joe Biden?  Shorty- He likely would not have heard it anyway.  He was probably sleepy eyed by then.

Shorty– One debate in, and America is so done with seven or so of these hopefuls.  Lefty- And, for now, I am so done with you.

Bernie Isn’t (that) Crazy.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Alice Cooper called it.  “School’s out, for summer.”  But, soon, Rodney Dangerfield and others will return.  “Hey, I am going back to school!”  And, when they do they need to bring their checkbook, and then some.

No one disputes the following.  One, the cost of a four year public college/university education in these 50 United States has spiraled out of control.  And, two, the debt that undergraduates and post graduates have incurred is huge at 1.6 trillion dollars and mounting by the moment.

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and a few others have led or joined the battle cry to make college tuition free and/or forgive the outstanding student debt.  Each plan to do so essentially redistributes wealth from taxpayers to students and is fraught with inconsistencies.  More later.

But now, we ask, have you ever heard of Sallie Mae?  SLM Corporation (commonly known as Sallie Mae; originally the Student Loan Marketing Association) is a publicly traded U.S. company that provides consumer banking loans.   Its structure has changed dramatically since it was set up in 1973.   At first, it was a government entity that serviced federal education loans. It then became private in 2004 and started offering private student loans.

The company’s primary business is originating, servicing, and collecting private education loans.  Sallie Mae previously originated federally guaranteed student loans originated under the Federal Family Education Loan Program and worked as a servicer and collector of federal student loans on behalf of the Department of Education. 

So, the U.S. government started Sallie Mae.  It then decided the task too tall for itself and allowed it to privatize.  And it’s now government workers who are crying loudest about the soaring student debt.   And, they should.

We took a peak at Sallie Mae’s (now Navient Corporation, the largest servicer of federal student loans and collector on behalf of the U.S. Dept of Education) “generous” loan offers and terms there of last evening.  What’s our conclusion?  You might as well charge your education on your Visa or MasterCard.

Navient loans offered today start at a 7.5% interest rate.  They are tied to a marker of interest rates known as LIBOR, plus 5%.  They are variable, can even change monthly up or down, and are allowed to float as high as 25% if the market so chooses.  That’s 25% as a high side risk!  Seven point five percent isn’t cheap to begin with.  Ford will give you zero percent financing for that new F150.  Sallie Mae and Uncle Sam want more, much more.

But it gets worse.  Let’s take a 40k dollar loan as an example.  You have three options to repay.  All start with paying either $25 bucks a month while still in school, or the interest accumulated each month of $233, or foregoing paying anything at all until you have completed your education.  Tick tock goes the interest clock from day one of course.  The choices are bad, poor, and terrible.

The structured repayment schedule over the course of the next dozen or so years costs about $500 a month at the 7.5% rate, and much more if rates rise.  The total interest is 29k on top of the 40k.   But, here is the kicker of all kickers.  There is no interest saved for paying down the principal in any accelerated manner.  There is no incentive/gain for attempting to get out of the debt.  Sign up and Sallie starts counting her coins.

There is no bankruptcy filing that exempts anyone from repaying either.  Federal laws are written to absolve you of debt incurred when you can no longer keep your head above water, except if that debt is owed to your government.  It’s the golden rule.  He who has the gold makes the rules.  Sallie collects the gold for he who makes the rules.

Making college free (and it wouldn’t be free, just paid by others) and forgiving debt (and that would just be adding to the federal debt that we all are accountable for as well) isn’t the answer.  No answer is that simple.  And no answer should only be for the selected ones who are in debt today or in school tomorrow.   It needs to be equitable.   For example, shouldn’t trade schools be “free” too?  You can’t discriminate for just colleges can you Elizabeth?

Their approach is a big band aid and is designed to garner votes from the young and naive.  The bandage needs to be ripped off of the whole mess and the root cause needs a vaccination.   Otherwise, many will continue to fall down, scrape their knees, and eventually the wound will get infected.   A great start to this would be to examine the ridiculous terms of Sallie Mae and others in this federal loan business for students.  If you didn’t save for college at least there should be an incentive to get out of debt sooner.

Maybe Crazy Bernie isn’t so crazy after all in attempting to address this.  It’s just how, not handouts, that need to be looked at and changed.  Start with Sallie Mae and others just like her.   And, like the $22 trillion dollar debt, and ballooning government, the sooner the better.

Donald, You’re No Ronald!

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

When Senator Lloyd Benson was squared off against Senator Dan Quayle in the Vice Presidential Debate in 1988, Quayle, desperate to establish himself as a qualified VP running mate, dropped a JFK reference.   Benson dropped a haymaker on Quayle, deadpanning “you’re no Jack Kennedy.“

We have resisted comparing Donald Trump to Ronald Reagan for fear of a haymaker ourselves, as Donald is no Ronald.  While each had roles on the TV screen or the big screen previous to ascending to the biggest role in all of the land, they differ in approach far more than they are similar.

Start with the hair styles please.  Ronald had a thick, dark, wavy mane seemingly woven to his head since birth to die for.  Donald has a thin, white/gray whisp that needs to be woven to his head for fear of it flying away.  Ronald was a statesman.  Donald states what he thinks and feels in non too subtle way.  Ronald had his first lady Nancy incessantly shaping his public perception.  Donald has had quite a few ladies and his first lady appears to step back and watch the bullfight from afar.

But, they have one big thing in common.  They know leverage when they see it.  And, when they see it they use it.  And, when they use it, they use it effectively.

Ronald watched as Iran held American hostages for 444 days till the very end of the Jimmy Carter’s mediocre presidency.  Mysteriously, on Reagan’s inauguration day, Iran freed the hostages.  Ronald played the good cop role on a horse in a TV western a few times.  He always got the bad guy and rode off into the sunset with the pretty woman.  Iran wanted nothing to do with this cowboy in real life.  Did Reagan’s team advance anything to Iran about the consequences of a continued standoff?  Probably.  Enough said.

Trump called North Korean dictator Kim Jung-Un “Rocket Man” in front of a United Nations gathering.  It was not very subtle.  It was the equivalent of Nikita Khrushchev’s shoe-banging incident during the 902nd Plenary Meeting of the UN General Assembly held in New York in 1960. During the session Nikita Khrushchev, First Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, pounded his shoe on his delegate-desk in protest of a speech by Philippine delegate Lorenzo Sumulong.  It was not so subtle.

Both Ronald and Trump were effective, style points aside.

“Rocket Man” is but one of many verbal jabs, hooks, or TKO’s that the Donald has thrown.  It is for that very reason that we continue to be amazed by how wrong the media continues to miss on understanding his approach, and therefore his effectiveness.  Every time he jabs, tweets, nicknames, and/or insults a foreign leader or an entire country the media screams in unison that “the sky is falling, the sky is falling.”  Except, it isn’t.

In fact it’s the opposite.  Trump threatened tariffs on Mexico a couple of weeks back and gave them a short deadline to help on their southern border controlling Central American illegal inflow, and on our southern border helping protect our illegal inflow.  Foes of The Donald said many things. “He can’t do that.”  “You can’t use tariffs to control immigration.”  “It’s unprecedented.”  “He’s offended our neighbor again.”  The stock market said, “Hold on cowboy.”  “This will wreck certain imported products.”  “Prices on imports will go through the roof.”  One Einstein even lamented, “the price of avocados will go up three fold.”

Our guess is that Donald doesn’t like avocados.  And, he doesn’t like illegal immigration even more.  So, with zero help from his Democrat friends, Donald got help on his own from his southern friends.  Mexico, after all of these years, offered immediate help.  Fifteen thousand of their finest are now being deployed on our joint border to stem the flow northward.  Another two thousand went south to do the same.  It’s amazing what the right carrot on the right stick can do.  And, Wall St. rallied once more.

And, it’s equally amazing how many people, tv commentators, and countries totally fail to understand President Trump’s motives and results derived from them. Ronald won with style and grace.  Donald wins with a hammer and a chainsaw.

Donald paints outside of the lines.  Donald is no Ronald.  But, he is Michelangelo in the art of the deal.

 

 

Who Went Where?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Did you watch the NBA draft last evening?  We did all the while channel surfing.  We suspect many others did while texting, or cooking, or talking, or surfing that internet that Al Gore invented.  With America’s attention span far shorter than the wing span of many of these new draft pics we wonder how many of us have any clue who went to whom?

The confusion we create, to follow who went were, is on us.  The confusion the NBA creates, on who went where, is on them.

What confusion you ask?  It’s how NBA draft day trades work for teams involved, and how they don’t work for the casual viewer.  Eight of the thirty first round picks were traded last evening, or just over 25 percent.  Except the picks weren’t really traded.  Got it?  Confused?

It seems complicated actually.  And, we researched it and can confirm, it’s complicated.

In short NBA teams trade the draft rights to a player that that NBA team has just selected.  In other words when team A agrees to trade draft rights of pick X to team B for draft rights to picks Y and Z, team B does so only when team A agrees to select player Q for team B.  A multiple choice quiz follows.  Just kidding.

Why does the NBA do it this way rather than allowing team B to make it’s own selection with the pick?  It’s all due to the collective bargaining agreement(CBA), the exclusive rights it gives the team for a year, the salary cap, the timing of the NBA year, it’s salary cap implications, and the two dates of July 6 and July 30.  A multiple choice quiz follows.  No, really, we are just kidding.

What does this do to the average fan?  It confuses them.  Eight times last evening a player walked onto the stage wearing a certain team’s hat having just been drafted by them.  Eight times in eight in thirty days from now that player won’t be with that team.  He’ll be with the team who has his rights.

So, ESPN interviews the player and cannot ask what it feels like to be headed eventually to the team that he will play for.  Sometimes the kid drafted doesn’t even know that he is moving.   So, ESPN interviews the player and doesn’t ask what it’s like to be drafted by the team whose hat sits right on top of his head.  So, TV shows us one thing, and tries to explain that it didn’t happen how you see it.  And, they attempt this all in five minutes.  If you just jumped, hypothetically, from Fox News (which, as you know, is fair and balanced) and see “Joe Blow” in a Lakers hat, don’t believe what your eyes just saw.  Thanks Kirk Gibson.   No, no.  Thank the NBA.

MLB draft presentations look and feel like dedications to libraries and the trusty Dewey Decimal System.  NFL draft presentations look and feel like three day rock concerts.  NBA draft presentations look and feel like something that is hard to look at, we feel.

Adam Silver is the most progressive commissioner when it comes to embracing gambling on games.  He should roll the dice on a new CBA agreement (or timing thereof) that allows us to see who goes where when we tune in.

Otherwise, it’s too easy to tune out.

 

 

Yes, here is your Great NBA Predraft Post

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s NBA Draft Day.  One staff member did great work compiling super in depth player profiles for your reading pleasure for today.  Unfortunately one other staff member had no idea how to get the file to download into a format that is compatible with the highly sophisticated security wall that BBR has.  Thankfully all has been resolved.  The complete rundown is below.

 

#1 Zion Williamson, Forward, Duke

A transcendent athlete with elite speed, quickness, power and agility, Zion can immediately help an NBA team on both ends of the floor. Aside from his athletic ability, he has great basketball instincts with a nose for the ball, particularly on the offensive glass. Zion is also a great passer in the open court and keeps his head up while handling the ball on the break. In a half court setting, expect Zion to have great impact off the ball with cutting and leaping plus ability. With the variety of types of players at the power forward position in the NBA, Zion will be able to blow by at least 20 NBA teams starting 4’s.  Although he will be playing with a ton of space because of defenders backing off of him in the half court, he will still be able to penetrate NBA defenses and get downhill because of his size and strength. Don’t expect him to be handling the ball much early in his career, but when he does he will be hard to stop no matter who is fronting him. His unique ability to have uncanny finishes at the rim compliments his game of attacking downhill and shooting floaters and layups.  Zion is a once in a generation athlete and player who is destined for superstardom.

 

#2 Ja Morant, Point Guard, Murray State 

A commanding point guard with great vision and decision making, Ja Morant is a future all-star in the NBA.  Ja has a natural feel for the position he plays and isn’t afraid to lead his team with the additional load of play making.  Ja Morant compares to the likes of De’Aaron Fox and even Russell Westbrook. Similar to Zion, he combines his speed, quickness and power with an ability to finish at the rim with either or both hands. Ja can shoot with range and break down defenses with dribble penetration and hesitation moves. He can also shoot in the midrange and make runners and floaters in the lane. Ja shows off his swagger and shifts the momentum of a game when he rises up and jams the ball through the hoop over a taller defender. He also has great defensive potential with length and wiry strength. Ja’s ability to make play after play and decision after decision at the point guard position will bode well for the modern NBA.

 

#3 RJ Barrett, Shooting Guard, Duke

As a left-handed assassin that takes long strides in the open court, RJ Barrett is a unique combo guard that is a sure-handed top three pick in this year’s draft.  RJ’s is a willing driver and finisher and rarely settles for jumpers. RJ is great in the pick and roll and can whip passes to cutters and open shooters with either hand. He is a streaky shooter at times, but with his pure form and consistent timing, he should develop into a go to shot maker. RJ shows a wide variety of ball handling moves and can slowly break down a defense by sifting through the lane and using his length to extend over smaller guards. He is lethal in the open court and can beat most of his competitors with quickness and athletic ability. RJ is also a willing defender and shows a competitive streak. If RJ gains muscle weight and improves his all-around shooting, he can be a perennial all-star.

 

#4 Cam Reddish, Small Forward, Duke

A versatile defender and great shooter, Cam Reddish fits into a premier position in the NBA. The “3 and D” player will never go out of style as the type of player that can shoot off-ball threes with efficiency and also defend multiple positions on the other end. Cam Reddish is more than that though, as he displays an ability to make sound fundamental entry passes into the post and can finish at the rim. Cam is a great athlete who has the quickest lateral movement in the draft. With all of this said, shooting may be his best attribute. He should seamlessly transition to NBA shooting with range as he has a tight and consistent shot form with an effortless release. He is so long and tall (6’9 with a 7 foot wing span) that he will figuratively be able to reach into the basket even from three point range like a hand reaching into a cookie jar. Cam has a high ceiling and fits into any NBA offense with his ability to fill into a premium position in the modern NBA.

 

#5 Darius Garland, Point Guard, Vanderbilt

Darius’ game compares to Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young.  He is the most refined shooter in this draft. His ball handling and pure shooting at all three levels of the half court make him an intriguing prospect for any team. He doesn’t mind pulling up for mid range shots around the top of the key which is a shot that presents itself quite often in the NBA, especially for point guards. Darius is slight of frame but uses his quickness and ability to get under defenders to his advantage. He sometimes struggles with decision making and often resorts to single-minded scoring when its time to make a play, but with time he will get better at orchestrating an offense. If Darius can physically mature into his frame and become a more consistent playmaker for his teammates, he can be a great NBA player.

 

#6 De’Andre Hunter, Forward, Virginia 

With a nice shooting touch and physical style of play, De’Andre Hunter’s game translates well to the next level.  Inclusive of his defensive capability, De’Andre can help a team in a variety of ways. From fade-aways, floaters and stand up threes, Hunter may be the most versatile player in the draft.  Hunter won the NCAA Championship, has great intangibles, and is willing to do the little things that win games. Whether it’s getting a tough rebound over a bigger defender or setting a solid screen, this is a team player that is locked in and focused all game long. If De’Andre improves his speed and ball handling in the open court, he can be a great rotation player in the NBA.

 

#7Jarrett Culver, Shooting Guard ,Texas Tech

A natural scorer who can shoot from anywhere on the floor, Culver makes for an intriguing prospect at the shooting guard position. When you consider that he has one of the best shooting forms in the draft coupled with the fact that his shot is almost impossible to block, you likely get a lottery pick. At 6’6, Jarrett already has NBA range from the 3 point line and can also finish with power at the rim. He should be able to guard three positions at the next level and is long enough to average a steal or two per game. His shot is so hard to contest because of his quick release as well as how he elevates on his pull-up mid range jumpers. If Jarrett commits to getting his upper body stronger, like Cam Reddish, he can be a versatile defender and potent scorer.

 

#8 Coby White, Combo Guard, North Carolina

One of the fastest players in the draft, White can blow by anyone in transition. Coby was lethal at the college level even after made baskets as he would sprint down the court with the ball and set the pace for the Tar Heels. White is also a great shooter and made 3.3 threes per 40 minutes last year. He has a certain burst and explosiveness that you don’t see much, and he uses it to his advantage in either the half court or open court setting. He compliments his athletic ability with being able to have unorthodox finishes at the rim with either hand. This is a very quick guard moving side to side so he definitely has the potential to be a great defender at his position. If Coby improves his passing and decision making, he can be an All Star guard at the NBA level.

 

#9  Rui Hachimura ,Forward, Gonzaga 

Rui might very well be the steal of this years’ draft. At 6’9 230 pounds, the Gonzaga forward plays a physical style of ball and loves to get to the rim. He has a great post up game and also a great face up game in the mid range, effectively using jab steps and pump fakes. This is a fundamentally sound big with a silky shooting stroke who has no chance to bust. He was Gonzaga’s emotional leader all year. What is really great about Hachimura is that he can play in virtually any system. He can take the ball into the post 20 times a game or he can stretch the court and then drive the lane. His post and mid range game goes well with his interior passing skills and he has a great feel for rebounding. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Rui get selected earlier than projected, as he has all of the tools a modern NBA scout is looking for in a combo forward.

 

#10 Jaxson Hayes, Center, Texas 

This guy is huge. At 7’0 feet tall with a 7’3 wingspan, Jaxson uses all of his length to dunk on other centers time and again. He usually follows up his dunks with a loud yell, imposing his will on the opposition. Hayes also has the biggest hand size in the draft, and is very coordinated with the ball in his hands. He had the best true shooting percentage in the college ranks at a strong 75%. Jaxson has a high ceiling and seems to have the want to get better.  According to ESPN stats, he was the second best rim protector in college basketball last year. If Hayes is committed, he can become one of the most dominant big men in the game, at least on the defensive end of the floor and maybe on the offensive end as well.

 

#11 Nassir Little, Forward, North Carolina 

Can you say “defensive versatility?”  This is the first thing that comes to mind when examining forward Nassir Little out of North Carolina. At 6’6 with a wing span of 7 feet, Nassir should be able to guard at least three positions and, depending on the matchup, four positions because of his mature physical frame. He can slide his feet as well as anyone in the draft and hard hedge off of a pick and roll while using his length for an effective double team. Nassir loves to get into the teeth of a defense and pick up some rebounds as well. He does have a nice shot form and can put the ball on the floor in the open court, but the next phase of development for him should be using a triple threat jab step on the wing while being able to create his own shot. He must focus on improving his ball handling in tight spaces. He is already a great finisher at the rim and uses his strength to get to the free throw line as well.  A good player to compare Nassir to would be Draymond Green.  But as a fluid finisher at the basket with a smooth shot form, he has a higher ceiling than Golden State’s forward.

 

#12 Romeo Langford, Guard, Indiana 

Langford compares well to Nets guard D’Angelo Russell. As a big guard that can create his own shot and get into the lane, Langford also has a soft touch around the rim. He changes speed especially with the ball in his hands, as he bends and breaks down defenses. A terrific ball handler combined with good athleticism goes a long way into becoming an NBA point guard. His upside suggests he could be a top 5 pick, but his play on the court this year will show you otherwise. Langford is often lackadaisical on defense and gets beat by his man on back door cuts. Although he was Indiana’s best player, he never truly showed leadership skills or carried his team verbally.  If his motor can change and he shows more hunger in the NBA, he has the talent to be an all star.

 

#13  Sekou Doumbouya, Forward, Limoges CSP

The Frenchman stands tall at 6’10 and impresses immediately when scouts lay eyes on him. With a huge wing span and big hands, Sekou is an intriguing prospect that has a high ceiling being the athlete that he is. He loves to run the lane in transition which compliments his game of finishing with dunks in space. He also likes to attack the paint in the half court, although his ball handling could use some work. Sekou runs at his own pace on his own time, and playing in the NBA will be a big adjustment coming from playing in the LNB Pro A in France. He did average over 1 block a game and 1.7 steals per game in his time over seas, but his footwork will have to improve to keep up with smaller NBA forwards. Sekou needs to gain muscle and improve his lateral quickness, if he can do that he can be a worthy rotation player.

 

#14 Bol Bol, Center, Oregon

Bol Bol has a certain fluidity to his game that you rarely see in players his size. As the tallest player in the draft, Bol is not afraid to shoot a three or penetrate the lane after a hard close out. He also has great hands and finishes above the rim with soft touch.  Bol’s defensive is impressive as well. In college, Bol averaged 2.7 blocks a game, and he will get better at protecting the rim once he makes it to the NBA.  He used his length at the collegiate level and didn’t have to move his feet much to interrupt players charging through the lane. He never had to move that fast in the condensed half court, so in the pros he will have to adjust to the speed. I expect Bol to adjust well as he has shown he can move his feet laterally with the best big men in the country. Similar to Sekou, if Bol can grow into his frame he can become one of the best rim protectors in the game.

 

#15 PJ Washington,Forward, Kentucky

As an undersized power forward at the collegiate level, PJ has the toughness necessary to maintain that position in the pros. It also helps that he’s got the best jump hook in the draft and made 55 percent of his mid range shots. He’s got everything scouts are looking for intangibly, as he lead Kentucky emotionally in his sophomore season as he was always getting his guys into a huddle. The scouts look at his tangible tools, and it’s virtually as good as the leadership skills. He can defend four positions as he moves his feet like a true wildcat, and he can drive the ball from the wing. There aren’t many, if any, holes in PJ’s game.  He shot 42 percent from three point range?  PJ’s natural talent promises an NBA career of possible All Star status.

 

#16  Bruno Fernando, Power Forward/Center, Maryland

Fernando averaged almost 11 rebounds a game and manned the center position for Maryland in his sophomore season with the Terrapins. He will play more power forward in the NBA, but the transition should be no problem for Bruno. He shows off a fluid offensive game as he is a knock down mid range shooter and one of the best post players in the draft. He’s also one of the best athletes in the draft and often soars for ally-oop jams as he sprints from the top of the key. Bruno has the physical tools to be a great defender but lacks the awareness and feel on that end of the floor. He’s is a less polished version on Gonzaga forward Rui Hachimura but has more upside being a taller player with superior athletic ability. If Bruno can improve his awareness on the defensive end of the court, he will be a valuable two way player in the NBA.

 

#17 Goga Bitadze, Center, Georgia

Goga has a great feel for the game and drives hard to the rim coming off of pick and rolls. One of the best parts of his game is that he enjoys screening for his guards and embraces the physicality that comes with it.  He uses a wide stance in the post and then turns with a firm pivot into a face up with the threat of his deadly mid-range jumper. Offensively, this is a prototypical stretch power forward that can contribute immediately in the league. It’s not like his production falls off on the other end of the floor either. In fact, Goga averaged 3.7 blocks per 40 minutes.  Goga can be a great role player on an NBA team.

 

#18  Cameron Johnson, Forward, North Carolina

The next best “3 and D” player in the draft behind Cam Reddish, Cam Johnson can contribute for an NBA team right away. At 6’9, Johnson uses all of his length to get deflections and steals while corralling opponents until they lose handle of the ball. Johnson is also one of the best shooters in the draft as he shot 46% from three in his senior season. He can make cuts while playing off of the ball in a half court set, and adds in a nice post up game with a turnaround jumper over either shoulder.  As a great team player he is engaged all game long on the defensive end and shows a high motor. Johnson could get stronger and improve his driving and finishing, but once he does this he will help any NBA team that drafts him.

 

#19 Brandon Clarke,Forward, Gonzaga

Brandon is a brash competitor and enjoys playing physical down low. He is committed on the defensive end and not only blocks shots but also gets steals. Clarke had a 36 point game against Pac 12 competition. If he wants to be more than a rotation player in the pros, he will have to get better as a threat on the wing and improve his ball handing. Without much of a post game, it’s hard to have consistent impact in the NBA standing at 6’8 weighing 215. Brandon does have the athleticism.  He will have to evolve as a player, and mask a few shortcomings at the next level.

 

#20 Keldon Johnson, Guard, Kentucky

Keldon was Kentucky’s best shooter last year averaging over 13 points a game. With a great shooting stroke, Keldon will be able to stretch defenses out to the wing and then finish inside with his impressive touch at the basket. In fact, he was 2nd on is team in baskets made with an additional free throw.  This shows his ability to finish through contact and display concentration in the lane. Keldon is also a great ball handler and a good enough passer to play both guard positions. With his length he will be able to guard three positions, and given his competitive streak should do just fine on that end of the floor. If Keldon can improve his court vision and decision making to capitalize on his size at the guard position, he can be a dangerous two-way player with the threat of making a bunch of threes in a short period of time.

 

#21 Nickeil Alexander-Walker

An ambidextrous guard that shoots with his right hand and is terrific finishing in the lane with his left, Nickeil has the mind set to make himself a productive NBA wing. Being able to use both hands as a shooter and a passer makes Nickeil’s game so fun to watch as he carves up defenses utilizing whichever hand a defender is surrendering. Nickeil is also a fierce competitor with great intangibles who isn’t afraid to lead by example. He has the physical tools to guard multiple positions and get his hands in passing lanes as one of the longest players at his position. He averaged 2.2 steals per game and shot 38 percent from three, so he can become a very good “3 and D” player at the next level. Nickeil will help any team that drafts him as he will fill a valuable position in the modern game.

 

#22 Tyler Herro, Shooting Guard, Kentucky

This is one of the best shooters in the draft who isn’t afraid to let it fly from three even with a hand in his face. Tyler can also put the ball on the floor and distribute for his team especially in the open court. He is used best running off of screens and also taking handoffs into the mid range where he can rise up over the out-stretched arm of a switching defender. Tyler has the will to go guard deep out onto the perimeter and pick up the opposing teams ball handler from full court. This is a sure-fire shooter with a competitive fire who should have a long NBA career.

 

#23 Mfiondu Kabengele, Power Forward, Florida State

Mfiondu is a terror on the defensive end swarming for rebounds and blocking shots into the stands. He is one of the best defensive players in the draft, and was taught well under defense minded coach Leonard Hamilton. He not only covers ground with his feet, but also plays physical fronting in the post and getting his hand on the ball. He compares nicely to former Florida State player Jonathan Isaac as a player that can switch onto smaller guards in the pick and roll and defend multiple positions. Whats most impressive considering all of the tools Mfiondu has on the defensive side of the court is that he shot 37% from three and 76% from the free throw line!  If he keeps up these numbers in the pro game, he can play up to 35 minutes a night on an NBA court.

 

#24 Admiral Schofield, Forward, Tennessee

Schofield is a big, strong athlete that has a soft touch on his shot from all three levels of the half court. In college he often played out of the post against larger forwards, but in the NBA he will transition to posting up guards.  He improved his range as a shooter in four years at Tennessee and turned himself into one of the best three point shooters in college last year. He was nicknamed “the Admiral” because he truly played like a general on the court and was one of Tennessee’s emotional leaders. Admiral can guard up to four positions as he slides his feet on the perimeter well and has enough mass in his upper body to defend taller power forwards in the post. If Schofield can improve his ball handling and decision making he can become a traditional “3 and D,” but also possess power and strength not many at his position have.

 

#25 Naz Reid, Power Forward, LSU

Naz is a true power forward at both the collegiate and pro level and has a brute strength that he is willing to impose in game situations. He does not mind going to the free throw line and can shoot it well once he gets there. His ability to create contact and finish with arms wrapped on him will carry over to the pro level. He shot 73 percent from the line last year, and has a nice looking stroke. He embraces being in the post but has limited developed moves down low. He stretched his shot out to the three point line.  He only shot 33 percent out there without any hands in his face, however.  Naz is slow of foot on defense.  But considering his ability to get out and run on the break, it’s a matter of will and hard work for Naz to get it together on the defensive end.  If Reid commits to playing hard defense and refines his offensive game, he can be a serviceable post up player in the league.

 

#26 Kevin Porter, Shooting Guard, USC

Porter has supreme athletic ability and uses it to dunk on opponents often. The lefty has a silky release & is comfortable shooting from NBA range. As a big combo guard, Porter elevates in the lane for nifty finishes and can lay it up with either hand. Porter has a scoring mindset and will need to build play making habits. He’s a demon in transition and changes speed with the best guards in the country. Porter can also pull up with a clean shot form at any area of the half court. If Porter becomes a willing defender and learns how to make plays more often, he can be a multi year NBA guard.

 

#27 Darius Bazley, Various Positions

Darius, who chose to work with trainers in preparation for the draft instead of college last year demonstrated marketability earning $1 million with New Balance!  His path creates an interesting conversation for the future of basketball.  Darius is a long athlete with high defensive potential who can guard three positions. He moves his feet very well and is accomplished at running out near the sidelines in transition. Darius has a nice offensive package as he can pull up well in the mid range and shoot from deep off of the catch. Darius is slight of frame but uses his quickness effectively. If he can build onto his frame, Darius can turn into another needed “3 and D” player.

 

#28 Grant Williams, Forward, Tennessee

Grant looks like an SEC linebacker, and plays like one too. Williams go-to place on the floor is the post, and it’s for good reason if you watch his highlights. Williams won’t be able to be as effective from the post in the NBA game, but he has dimension in his game to make up for it. This is a great defender and terrific passer, and he has some abilities bullying opponents in the lane as well. Grant has a stoic personality and leads his team with composure. He was known for making critical baskets for his team last season. Grant loves to use the spin move and will be able to develop it in the pros with his massive frame. If Grant can get lighter on his feet and create a more complete perimeter game, he can be a valued rotation player at the next level.

 

#29 Tremont Waters ,Point Guard, LSU

The 5’10 guard makes up for his lack of height in every area of his game. He gets under defenders, has a quick release on his shot, and uses every part of the back board on his devastating floaters and layups. Tremont is, no doubt, an NBA point guard and only and point guard. He may very well be the best in the draft at manipulating defenses in the pick and roll.  With his change of pace by way of hesitation and stutter-stepping, Tremont is graceful while he moves downhill into the lane. He is an unbelievable finisher and makes layups from hard to fathom angles. He also shoots with range and has great court vision in either the half court or fast break setting. Tremont  led the Tigers in steals as a pesky and visionary defender.  Tremont  excels at most levels of his game.  But, give his stature, his defense is likely a liability.

 

#30 Carsen Edwards, Point Guard, Purdue

This is a thick, bruising point guard with deep range as he shot NBA level threes at Purdue. Carsen is an underrated athlete that possesses a signature left-handed jam that you don’t see in players his size. He shows off his anticipation skills on the defensive end of the floor as he racked up 1.3 steals a game. He averaged 24 points a game for the Boilermakers and shot 36% from three. He has skills as a passer but didn’t display them much as he only averaged 2.9 assists per game last year. Carsen has an array of dribble moves and spins through the lane effectively for reverse layups. If Carsen commits to distributing the ball more, he can be a rotation player at the next level.

 

Enjoy the draft and its many many twists, turns, and trades.

Hopefully Zion’s cheap Nike shoe will hold up better than our process did this AM when he takes center stage tonight shortly after the opening bell rings.

.

 

If and When, Together Again.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

When if becomes when the dynamics of a sequence of events can change dramatically as they unfold.   Unexpected final results can happen.  Nothing more unexpected in political history ever happened than when The Donald went from polling at single digits as a Republican hopeful, after first announcing, to being elected President of the United States in November of 2016.

Last night a sure if became a when at 8pm EST when Donald J. Trump officially announced that he was running for his second term as President of the United States.

In 2016 Trump recognized America’s strong desire for change from the status quo.  But a series of events helped his magic carpet ride.

If Bernie Sanders doesn’t gain real traction on the left side of the left, then Hillary Rodham Clinton doesn’t have to steer her train wreck of a campaign into that far lane.  When she did, did she lose some of the moderate Democrats?

If Crazy Bernie doesn’t stay in the race as long as he did, does Hillary have to campaign as hard as she did?  When he did, Hillary was extended to more cities, more speeches, more TV appearances, more bad food, and more planes, trains, and automobiles.  If you couldn’t see fatigue negatively affecting a presidential campaign, when will you?

Enter Joe Biden for President in 2020.  He’ll be 77 this November, and 78 by the time voters head to the polls in November of 2020.  It’s awfully early to pronounce him as the nominee, but he is the front runner by about a lap and a half.

So, what if?  If all of the left that stand to the left of Bernie fall by the wayside, does Bernie get the lion’s share of their votes?  If he does, how far does Bernie go?  Does Bernie know when to say when for the good of his party?  If he goes the distance v. Biden like he did v. Hillary, does fatigue set in for Biden to the extent it did on Hillary?

His few public appearances so far have been less than impressive.  His “I’m running for prez intro speech” was filled with mispronunciations and other verbal stumbles..  His voice trails off often.  His gestures and gait seem tentative.

Trump has already seized on this, relabeling the former “creepy Uncle Joe” as “sleepy Joe.”  Trump’s running against thin air in his own party.  If Biden emerges as the tired nominee, a fresh Trump will go full frontal assault on him.  It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Trump ask for more debates, not less.  It’s usually the other way around as the contender tries to slay the defender and asks for more.  But, there is nothing usual in the world of politics today.

Not if, but when it all unfolds the unexpected probably should be expected.    Meantime, get some sleep Joe.  You are going to need it.