Author: thependulumswings staff

Stocks Resilient in the face of Headlines and Retail Sales

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

JIM CARLTON
Managing Director
Chief Investment Officer

Friends

The stock market is showing some impressive resilience. The bears delivered a haymaker this morning in the form of a miserable retails sales number, which initially did send stocks lower (more than 250 Dow points), but those losses were erased by midday. As the afternoon wore on and headlines hit that the President was going to sign the spending bill and declare a state emergency, market participants stepped back and stocks drifted lower into the close.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 103 points to finish the day at 25,439. The S&P 500 was down 7 points to close at 2,745. Gold was up $1 to trade at $1,315 per ounce, while oil was up $.63 to trade at $54.53 per barrel WTI.

Yes, we continue to straddle formidable resistance levels, but the bulls have to be encouraged that a lukewarm corporate earnings season and mixed economic data hasn’t put more pressure on stocks. Headlines move markets, but mostly are forgotten rather quickly. Economic data and corporate earnings are the true weighing apparatus of the markets. Let’s see how the week finishes out tomorrow.

Have a nice evening everyone.

 

Jim

10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX  77380 
(281) 298-2700 Phone
(877) 824-4299 Toll Free
(281) 298-2760 Fax

[email protected]        www.chjwealthmanagement.com

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

*Numbers and figures sourced from the following: Bloomberg.com, CNBC.com and Finance.Yahoo.com.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

CHJ Wealth Management,
10200 Grogan’s Mill Road,
Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380

Lefty and Shorty- Hopeless Romantics

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

If Lefty and Shorty were still with us early this morning might have unfolded like this.

Lefty and Shorty sat quietly in the quite cool but early spring air.  It was only 5:30 AM, and cars were nowhere to be found.  Lefty- Why do we open up so early?  Shorty- So that we can discuss what the meaning of Valentine’s Day is of course.

Lefty sat to the left of Shorty.  Imagine that.  Shorty sat on the shorter of the two “halves” of the 55 gallon drum. Imagine that.  Each were cut down to size and retrofitted with a soft cushion top.  Lefty looked confused-very.

Lefty- Why do you even bring that up today?  Shorty-Because today is Valentine’s Day.  Lefty looked at Shorty like a mechanic does to a blown engine.  Lefty-It is?  Shorty- Yes, it is. Lefty- No wonder I got the cold shoulder this AM. Shorty- You forgot to say Happy Valentine’s Day to Mrs. Lefty? Lefty- Um, yea.

Shorty- You better stop on your way home tonight and get her some chocolates and flowers.  Lefty- Flowers are worthless.  Shorty- Not to women, they have different sized vases for most any arrangement, and they know right where they are.  Lefty- And, she doesn’t need any chocolates. Shorty- Need has nothing to do with Valentine’s Day.  Lefty- It should.  Shorty- Trust me.

Lefty- Does your wife ever ask if the dress she is considering wearing makes her look fat?  Shorty- It’s the ultimate no win answer and its times 5 dangerous today.  Lefty- How do you answer?  Shorty- I pretend not to hear the question these days.  Lefty- Why?  Shorty- Once I told her ‘no, it’s all of the chocolates that you eat that does.’  Lefty- How did that go over?  Shorty- Not too good.  I wound up having to buy her flowers and chocolates to smooth it over.  Shorty- I guess I better do the same later today.  Lefty- Don’t forget the heartfelt card too or she’ll save that nugget and you’ll hear about it between now and roughly Memorial Day.

Shorty- At least MLB pitchers and catchers report to spring training today.

 

What’s Important Now?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Al Davis, the unconventional owner and GM of the Oakland Raiders from its first days in the Sixties, until his last days in the New Millenium, coined the phrase “Just Win, Baby!”  And his Raiders won and won.  Two Super Bowl wins and two more appearances with several coaches and ever-changing personnel in an ever-changing league bears that out.

Of course his baby son, Mark Davis, now principal owner and GM of his dad’s beloved Raiders might be the biggest winner in Raider Nation.  His dad turned a 50k investment in a fledgling upstart American Football League into an icon valued at well over 1.5 billion dollars.   That’s billion with a “b” if your 2.0x readers are around here somewhere.

Nick Saban, the six-time NCAA championship winner, and arguably(is it even really arguable?) the greatest coach in college football history, coined the phrase “focus on the process and the results will take care of themselves.”  His focus is such that his overall w/l record is 233-63-1.  His Bama record is 141-21 with six of the losses coming in year one as he quickly rebuilt the Crimson Tide.  His coaching tree is now a coaching forest and sprouting new saplings yearly.

Tyrone Willingham, the one time head coach of Stanford, then Notre Dame, and finally Washington, coined the acronym “WIN”.  He has gone on to explain that it stands for  “What’s Important Now?”  Of the three men, Davis, Saban, and Willingham, Tyrone has by far the most modest accomplishments.  He lost more games at the helm 88, than he won, 76.  Though, we point out that coaching at three fine universities is in and of itself success.

Why might we refer to Willingham, who stands in the shadow of these two unrelated but both hugely successful men, in the same post as them?  It’s because we feel like WIN-What’s Important Now is a clean, clear, and simple to use “words to live by.”  And live by them we try daily.

This writer was fortunate to hear the impressive Willingham speak well over a decade ago.  Meticulous in his dress, he meticulously outlined what WIN meant to him.  In short after he establishes a goal or goals for himself he asks what it takes to accomplish them.  From there he writes them down. Then he organizes them from which are the most important down to the least.  And, he revisits the list daily, resorting after either accomplishing some or evaluating others, in the ever-changing world that we live in.

Note, this list isn’t what is urgent in others minds.  Failure to plan on your part does not create an emergency (urgency) on mine.  Separating what is perceived as urgent from wha tis important seems critical.  Heck it sounds one heck of a lot like “focus on the process.”

Does this sound rather simple? In theory we think it is.  In application it requires dedication and passion.  Oh, and most of all it requires the “how.”  Once the “when” to do and “what” to do, are organized the “how” separates us.  The “how,” is Saban’s process.

Getting things done through others can be tough.  But if you don’t know what’s important now then they won’t either.  If they don’t, the agenda has no direction and the urgent replaces the process.

Willingham may not have been the most successful, but for us one evening, and to this day, he was the most inspirational.

Who doesn’t want to win?

WIN-What’s Important Now?

 

The Market Likes Deals

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

  Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.
 

 
JIM CARLTON

Managing Director
Chief Investment Officer

 

Friends

As old Monty Hall used to say “let’s make a deal”. A nice rally in stocks today was attributed to reports that a deal on the budget seems to have been reached (but not yet blessed by the President), and that there appears to be progress on a deal with China(of course, those tea leaves are next to impossible to trust). Nevertheless, the markets like deals, and more importantly, the more uncertainty that can be taken out of the situation, the better. Stocks got off to a good start this morning and were able to add to those gains as the trading session wore on.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 372 points to finish the day at 25,425. The S&P 500 was up 34 points to close at 2,744. Gold was up $2 to trade at $1,314 per ounce, while oil was up $.70 to trade at $53.11 per barrel WTI.

Again, stocks are bumping up against resistance, and both the bulls and the bears seem to be a bit on edge. If the bulls can push through, the bears will be left to play defense, which could actually push stocks even higher. On the other hand, if the bulls fail, the bears can claim the resistance held again and that a retest of December’s lows is still in the cards. Amazingly, stocks lost nearly 20% in less than 90 days last quarter, and have recaptured about two thirds of that in less than 45 days so far this year. Even the most ardent bulls have to be surprised by the power of this rally given the circumstances. Let’s see if the government deal gets done this week and if we can get that uncertainly behind us.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim
10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX  77380 

(281) 298-2700 Phone

(877) 824-4299 Toll Free

(281) 298-2760 Fax

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

 

 *Numbers and figures sourced from the following: Bloomberg.com, CNBC.com and Finance.Yahoo.com.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
CHJ Wealth Management, 10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340, The Woodlands, TX 77380

I Have Yet Another Story and Two Morals Thereof

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Riding high off of the 2003 BCS National Championship, LSU football ended 2004 on a down note.  Nick Saban announced that he was taking his talents to the NFL.  He left behind an energized fan base, a stable of future NFL players, and a small (due to the 85 man total limit) but promising 2005 recruiting class.

Holliday enjoyed a 6 year, 6 team NFL career. He holds many Denver Broncos special teams records.

Enter Leslie Miles.  He quickly made the appropriate rounds and said the appropriate things to the recruits who were soon to sign and to their families as well.  Only one scholarship remained to be awarded.  After some deep thinking (just pretend) by Miles he offered an 11th hour scholarship to a spark plug named Trindon Holliday.  He stood all of 5 foot 5 inches tall and weighed about 155 lbs.  Oh, and Trindon could run.   In his 2005 senior high school year Holliday posted the nation’s fastest indoor time in the 55 and 60-meter dashes. He led his team to the state title by winning the 100 meters and 200 meters and was second in the long jump. Holliday was a four-time state champion in the 200 meters and a three-time 100 meters champion.   In fact, Trindon made the 2007 World Championships and had realistic hopes to make the 2008 USA Olympic team.

In other words Trindon and my best friend in the world Joseph Roy Miller, Jr. have absolutely nothing in common.  Nothing.   Big Joe stood 6 foot 4 inches and tipped the scales a biscuit shy of roughly 260 lbs. in early 2005.

Joey and I decided that a trip to Baton Rouge to join about 7500 other fervent LSU football fans for the early February, day long recruiting bash was just what we needed for some food, football, fun, and a wee bit of Makers Mark.

Not long after our arrival we hit it off with the then president and editor of my favorite recruiting website.  As the afternoon rolled on our insatiable thirst for Makers was quenched again and again.

The stage was set (literally) for the 5pm appearance by the Fighting Tigers Marching Band, the AD, and finally the new head coach who would give the football hungry crowd the low down on the newest sensations signed that morning.  Three foot wide placards with the signed recruits name, high school, height, and weight hung to one side of the otherwise empty stage.

I sensed that the crowd had grown restless and should be entertained.   I wondered aloud with the webite prez if he could get the three of us brief access to the stage.  He liked the dumb idea almost as much as I did.  He asked and we somehow were granted a brief opening.  Once we walked onto the stage the crowd (also enjoying a few adult beverages) noise diminished an octave or two.   Quickly, I grabbed Trindon’s placard for the photo opp.  I placed it in Joey’s hands and asked him to hold it out right in front of him.   “Ladies (a few) and gents(term used loosely) meet Trindon Holliday,” I said.  And then I said it again, only louder.  There was no way that this was happening.  Surely they knew that Joey was no Trindon.  One clap from the crowd turned to many which turned into darn near a standing ovation for the (not so) young lad.

Unfortunately the photos from that day are lost much like the recruiting geeks were for clapping.

What’s the moral of the story?  There are two.  One, people who tell you that they know all about their favorite team’s recruits, don’t.  And two, have lots of fun.  Life is short, like Trindon, not like Big Joe.

Money Matters Always Matter-Welcome Jim Carlton

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Albert Einstein once said “the only source of knowledge is experience.”  At BBR we think that learning through reading and succeeding at higher levels of education help too.  The opportunity, when you combine education and experience in a chosen field, is great.  And ultimately success then can be measured in how effectively you help others.

BBR feels quite confident that we have found someone in the world of personal finance that can do just that.  His macro view of the marketplace is derived from 34 years of dedication to his craft.  He takes the complex and makes it simple.  Great money management removes the emotion from the moment and grounds it in time-tested logic. He does that as well.

So, it’s with pleasure that we announce to you that Jim Carlton, Managing Director of Carlton, Hofferkamp, and Jenks, has agreed to share his market commentary with us.

With over 34 years investment experience, Jim began his career as a Financial Consultant with Merrill Lynch and Stifel Nicolaus in St. Louis. Later he became Chief Investment Officer for Clayton Asset Management and Clayton Equity Partners hedge fund. He joined Sterling Bank in 2001 and became a Senior Vice President and Manager of Sterling Bank’s Private Client Services. Today, of course, he serves as Managing Director and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Carlton, Hofferkamp and Jenks Wealth Management.

Jim has been nationally recognized for outstanding customer service and productivity and has been named a Five Star Wealth Manager ranking him in the top 2% of investment advisors in overall client satisfaction.

Benjamin Graham said  “Investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.”  Jim feels that this quote sums up his own philosophy quite nicely.  

When we post his after market recap of the day it will be on this site by 4pm CST that same day at the latest.  So if you want to be in the know now in the world of money, go directly to the site in the late afternoon.

Subscribers will continue to only receive one email notification daily of all posts at 9am.  Therefore, you won’t get a given day’s market commentary link until that next morning.  Twitter and Facebook followers get notified at the actual time of any posts.  If we have managed to confuse you, please comment below and we can clarify it further for you.

We know that this new, regular boomboomsroom.com feature will further your understanding of the investment world.  Look for this feature to begin late this week.

Welcome aboard Jim.

 

DISCLAIMER- Jim Carlton’s commentary is his view only.    It is not necessarily the view of any BBR staff member or its ownership.  Markets can change rapidly.   Any personal finance decisions you make are your own.  Also, his posts are not a solicitation for business.

More (No) Respect Coming Later this Spring

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Before cable, satellite, and the internet, comics had few nationwide outlets for fans to enjoy their humor.  At least musicians had recording studios and could have an album pressed, publicized, and sold for them in addition to their concert tours.  Comics could “stand up” in a comedy house, pack their bags, drive to the next town, and “stand up” all over again.  The pay was poor and the travel was brutal.  Few attempted to do so on a coast to coast basis.  Fewer lasted trying to do so.

One who toiled in relative obscurity, beat the long odds, and gained a national following is our favorite. He was good enough to get a shot on one of the very few network programs that provided a platform.  On Sunday, March 5, 1967, The Ed Sullivan Show needed a last-minute replacement for another act, and he became the surprise hit of the show.  He was already 46 years old then.

However, no platform was bigger than stage left of Johnny Carson’s desk.  Already in his fifties, he made Johnny Carson laugh out loud (LOL for you kids) each time he appeared on The Tonight Show.  Carson had great content control as a producer for his own show.  He liked Jack Roy (born Jacob Rodney Cohen, November 22, 1921 – October 5, 2004), popularly known by the stage name Rodney Dangerfield, so much that he appeared 35 times.  He may have gotten “no respect, no respect at all,” but we have great respect for his persistence, brand cultivation, and sense of humor.

In fact we have so much respect that we are hopeful that our site update later this spring will include a Dangerfield joke of the day.  In show biz that is called a tease.  So, let’s tease you with a smidgen of his “No Respect” shtick.

“Right from birth I got no respect.  The doctor took one look at me.  He spanked my mother.”

“The doctor said to my mom ‘we did everything that we could.’  But he lived!”

“My mother didn’t breast feed me.   She told me she liked me as a friend.”

More (no) respect for Jacob Rodney Cohen soon.

 

 

Boom Boom’s Life Lessons #13

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As the summer of 1978 waned a big change in life was staring me in the face on a muggy mid August morning.  It was moving day.  I was headed 80 miles northwest of NOLA to start my freshman year at Louisiana State University.  Packing took all of ten minutes.  Three pair of shoes, clothes, toiletries, bed linens, and a backpack were all that were needed (not wanted) to share a small dorm room.

After mom and Boom Boom helped me get settled we were off to lunch, a bank, and a few words of encouragement prior to their return trip home.   At the bank branch Boom Boom took out 5 crisp $100 bills and handed them to the bank manager.  “Open up my a checking account for my son please.”  Soon I had a few temporary checks and a blank reconciliation ledger in my hands.

“I’ll walk back to the dorm so that you all can head out.”  “Call me if need more money this year son,” Boom Boom announced.  “How will I know?”  “Balance your checkbook” was the quick retort.  “I don’t know how to do that dad.”  “I would suggest that if you think you are ready to attend college and live away from home that you learn quickly. You should always know where you stand.”  “Ok, but how?”  “Subtract your checks and add your deposits.”

With a hug from both the Oldsmobile started and backed out of the parking place.   They stopped next to me as I began my walk back.  The window rolled down and mom said good luck once more.  Boom Boom said “balance your checkbook” once more.

It sounded like it was time to grow up.

Oh Baby, Utopia is No Where Near.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

We are wondering if we have been too hard on the month of February lately.  After all February makes us appreciate almost all of the other months more.  And, at least its only 28 days long(short).  So, there is that going for it.  Every day cannot be utopia.  Utopia?  Now there is an often spoken word that makes us wonder as well.  What does utopia mean, and what is the origin of its meaning?

Meaning: it’s a great place that doesn’t exist

History:  In 1516 Sir Thomas More wrote the first ‘Utopia‘. He coined the word ‘utopia‘ from the Greek ou-topos meaning ‘no place’ or ‘nowhere’. But this was a pun – the almost identical Greek word eu-topos means a good place. So at the very heart of the word is a vital question: can a perfect world ever be realized?

Can a perfect world ever be realized?  Probably not would be our guess, but we can hope.  But if indeed we fall short it’s no reason to throw the baby out with the bath water is it?

Meaning: Hang on to valuable things when getting rid of unnecessary things

History: During Medieval times most people bathed only once a year. Even when they did bathe, the entire family used the same tub full of water. The man of the house bathed first, followed by other males, then females, and finally the babies. You can imagine how thick and cloudy the water became by that time, so the infants’ mothers had to take care not to throw them out with the bath water when they emptied the tub.

Or so the story goes.

Perhaps we should strive for utopia after all.  Because in a perfect world, or even an imperfect one, we should probably bath more than once a year.  We’ve come a long way.  but, we’ve got a long ways to go.

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-Super Bowl (A)Live

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Last week our column February Made Me Shiver stated how boring the big four sports leagues are collectively in February.  One bright spot, we thought, was that at least we had the Super Bowl prior to the NFL fading into the long winter nights.  Wrong.  The NFL would have better served us if it faded to black in late January.   Today we serve you ten random leftover nuggets from the extravaganza that was not so extravagant.

  1.  The flyover was super and on time as Glady’s Knight hit the right notes and finished on cue for the flyover pilots to time their 400 mph cruise just right.
  2.  Unfortunately, then, the game started.  The Rams offense did not start however.  They became the first team ever to punt on their first seven possessions in Super Bowl history.  No wonder teams are feverishly looking for the next offensive genius like Sean McVay.
  3. In November and early December many “pundits” or “experts” spoke almost as loudly as Steven A. Smith about the new NFL.  It was a high scoring, defense be dammed, pass first league.  I wonder how many this AM will fill the airwaves talking about how defense wins championships in football?  In case you ever wondered, and we hope that you haven’t, the “A” in Steven A. is “Anthony.”
  4. The Rams could not rush the ball.  Their game total was 62 net yards or less than half of the 139 they averaged during the regular season.  For all of the talk about the Rams interior defensive line, it was New England’s DL that controlled the line of scrimmage.  Amazing really.  Patriots fans can name their defensive lineman we are sure.  Can you?
  5. Halftime was 3-0 NE.  Only SB IX played in bitter cold, some ice, and rain saw fewer points in SB history.  In that one Pittsburgh held a 2-0 lead over the Minnesota Vikings.
  6. Halftime would have been better if one of our favorite rappers Cardi B would have performed. Cardi passed up the opportunity to perform to show solidarity with Colin Kaepernick. Cardi, whose real name is Belcalis Almanzar, told the AP on Friday that she felt obligated to “stand behind” Kaepernick.  “I got to sacrifice a lot of money to perform,” she said. “But there’s a man who sacrificed his job for us, so we got to stand behind him.”  Cardi did, however, accept an offer to appear in a Super Bowl commercial with Steve Carell and Lil Jon proving “stand behind” and capitalism can coexist.
  7. Rams punter Johnny Hekker tallied a 65 yard punt in the third quarter.  It was the longest punt in SB history.  If you weren’t sleeping by then that had to provide you with at least the impetus to yawn repeatedly.
  8. The Rams didn’t see the end zone the entire game.  Belichick can coach some D, can’t he? Once the run was neutered they set their sights on Goff.  He was sacked, hit, and harassed plenty.  His accuracy or lack thereof reflected that.  Only the 1971 Dolphins failed to score a touchdown in a SB game prior to last night’s somnambulist’s dream. Sure, here you go-somnambulist.
  9. Brady and Belichick’s combined age of 107 years old is the oldest qb/coach combined age for a winning team in SB history.  It feels like they have won 107 SB’s actually.  If you are a New England fan or from Bahhstun, we get that you love them.  You should.  They are the winningest combo in SB history and second place is no longer close.  If NE is not your favorite team you have to respect their unparalleled excellence.  But they aren’t likeable.  They just aren’t.  The NFL needs a new story.  They need it desperately.  They need it starting in 2019.  Paging Patrick Mahomes.
  10. Julian Edelman won a much deserved MVP trophy for his 10 catch, 141 yard performance.   No one can cover the guy.  No one. On a team that has been excellent for nearing two decades their Hall of Fame candidates are few.  Edelman might be one before he is done.  One wonders if he could run even faster if he trimmed that wooly beard of his.
  11. (Extra Point) Post game on CBS Phil Simms turn at the mic at the bloated five man desk came.   He said the game was very enjoyable, very exciting.  Phil really needs to get out more often.

Minutes after the game Vegas established Kansas City as the favorite to make Super Bowl LIV next year.  We can hope.  LIV means 54, not “live.”  Apparently SB LIII meant “not live” as well.