Ten Piece Nuggets-Multiple Sports

Update-February still makes us shiver.

As the shortest month of the year rolls along we dug deep to find a savory serving of ten nuggets for our insatiable readers.  We need to grab a bit from here and some from there to do so.  The oven is on.

  1.  In men’s NCAA basketball the new AP Top 25 is out.  Duke regained the no. 1 spot for the third time this year.  Somehow, Tennessee dropped for 1 to 5.  Sure, Kentucky worked them over in Lexington Saturday.  But, a drop of four spots with only two year long losses in what is supposed to be one of the top two conferences seems a bit strong.  It doesn’t matter too much just yet.
  2. Kentucky, somehow rose one from 5 to 4.  The same voters that punished Tennessee rewarded Kentucky for losing at home earlier in the week to LSU and then beating Tenn.  It must pay to have the Kentucky blue unis come voting time.  It doesn’t matter too much just yet.
  3. This just in.  The PGA is now allowing shorts for the pros in practice rounds.  After an offseason of rule changes for the stodgy sport that includes leaving the flag in on putts, can beer kegs next to the Powerade coolers on the tee boxes be far off?  One can hope.  This just in.  John Daly liked boomboomsroom.com.
  4. How many mock drafts do you think you could review between now and the NFL draft in April.  How many ways can the “draft experts” recast a list in hopes to get one to read one?  Like the stock market pundits someone should write a column or three after the draft to mock the absurdity and inaccuracy of these mocks.
  5. Speaking of mocks, mocking, and bad franchises; have the Cleveland Browns turned a corner?  Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, and a talented defense won seven games last year after the team won one game in the last two years prior combined.  And they have a lot of decent, promising, young talent acquired in  2018 draft.
  6. And, here is the kicker.  The once and forever woeful Browns have their own pick in all seven rounds in 2019.  Plus, they have an additional 3rd, 5th, and 7th thanks to some savvy moves on draft day 2018 made by their “suddenly to be taken seriously” front office.  Can the heretofore bad ownership stay out of the way?
  7. This writer sat fifteen rows from the ice in Nashville at a Predators v. St. Louis Blues game Sunday a week ago.  The Blues prevailed sixteen seconds into overtime 5-4.  Why is this now news?  It’s not.  It’s just the setup to say that hockey is SOOOO much better in person than on the TV.  Two dimensions, even in HD, cannot do justice to what large grown men do at full speed on a relatively small piece of ice with wooden sticks and a small frozen rubber puck.  If you haven’t recently, get to an NHL game soon.  If they don’t look faster than ever to you it will be a surprise.
  8. Pitchers and catchers reported to MLB camps over a week ago.  With Tampa Bay now pitching backwards in some games (starting the closer and finishing with longer innings guys) and other teams increasingly going to “Johnny Whole Staff” for pitching games by committee, innovative thinking is accelerating in baseball.  Can it be very long before a team decides to not have pitchers and catchers throw and squat in early February in hopes that they will still be able to throw and squat in early October?
  9. In yesteryear four man starting rotations were the norm.  Now nearly every team has a five man starting rotation, giving an extra day of rest to all.  The analytics side to the game has really changed the thinking on many fronts for what we think is the good of yet another sport viewed by too many as too stodgy.
  10. Which reminds us of the whispers emanating from MLB’s front office.  “Should we limit the severity of the defensive shifts that teams are making against hitters?”  Here is a simple answer-NO.  Should teams, and hitting instructors from early ages, rethink their approach as to how hitters work their plate appearance?  Here is a simple answer-YES.  Can you imagine the NFL dictating that defenses must not overload one side of the field?  Well, with this commissioner, maybe you could.  The ever-changing strategy is the actual beauty of these games.

March is but ten days away.  Who’s counting?

Fashionable Managers are Good (for) Sports.

The NBA fashion show and All Star weekend has come and gone.  Team LeBron squeaked by Team Giannis in a defensive thriller 178-164.  In defense (none played) of the NBA the weekend is really more about style than substance anyway.  The atmosphere surrounding one of these weekends is dress up, party, three-point contest, dress up, party, pretend to play a basketball game, dress up, party.  The dearly departed Yogi Berra would call it 90% style and 50% substance we think.  Which got us to thinking.

When Yogi hung up his cleats from catching for his Yankees he eventually wore those cleats and an entire game ready Yankees’ uniform while managing them from the dugout.  This is, of course, just like every other MLB (or MiLB) manager before and after him.  Which got us to thinking.  Why do MLB managers wear the team uniforms?  Respect?  Tradition?  Superstition?  Are they more effective or authoritative if they dress so?  At a minimum we suppose that when they disagree with an umpire’s call its better to kick dirt on home plate with cleats and an easily washable uniform.  Which got us to thinking.

Can you imagine if they dressed like Pat Riley, aka Mr. GQ, the NBA multi time world champ head coach extraordinaire?  Or, could you imagine the cool Riley bouncing out of a dugout in his woven Cole Hahn’s and Perry Ellis tailored suit to turn his cap backwards and spit tobacco juice hither and yon? Heaven forbid that one gelled strand of coiffed hair stray out of place.   Which got us to thinking.  Why do NBA coaches roam court side in thousands of dollars of fine silk threads and pressed shirts?  ‘Why not?’ is our guess.  Aside from sitting, standing, and very occasionally drawing up a play with a Sharpie on a white board there isn’t much physical exertion inside of a climate controlled arena to sweat about.  Which got us to thinking.

Why do NFL football coaches wear coaching shorts and shirts and cleat looking shoes without cleats during practice?  And why do they wear NFL sideline team gear on game days?  Ah, we think we know this one.   NFL practices can be messy, with grass, mud, and sweat and all.  And, the NFL is the ultimate marketing machine.  “Ooh, did you see the new LA Rams shirt that (poster boy) Sean McVay wore on the sidelines?”  “I gotta get me one.”  Which got us to thinking.

Why don’t NHL coaches wear team sweaters and skates while standing behind 20 or so sweaty guys that sit on a cold bench holding a wooden stick waiting for their shift to be called out by men who wear suits and ties?  It’s always an adventure for the coaches try to walk on the ice with dress shoes on.  And, can the NHL afford a tanning bed for them? Milk white skin washes out against milk white ice.  The winters are long in those parts.  Which got us to thinking.

Why do soccer coaches (or managers or trainers or whatever they are called) in Euro leagues wear skinny ties and skinny pants with fitted shirts with their skinny sport coats next to those benches that look like bus stops?  Exact change is needed to board please.  Which got us to thinking.

We think that we might have over thought this.

 

Stocks Surprise Again

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Friends

Stocks continue to push higher despite a lukewarm earnings season, mixed economic data and the political theater that we see on a daily basis. Stress on those who sold in the 4th quarter of 2018 is starting to build. Have they come back in, and if not will they potentially provide fuel for a further advance as the fear of missing out continues to build?

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 443 points to close at 25,883. The S&P 500 was up 29 points to finish the day at 2,775. Gold was up $10 to trade at $1,324 per ounce, while oil was up $1.34 to trade at $55.75 per barrel WTI.

Interestingly, today’s move did not include the likes of Amazon, Google, Netflix and Apple. Today’s advance was led by industrials and financials, which might indicate that this advance is beginning to broaden out. This has been an amazing first 6 weeks of the year, as stocks try to erase the memory of a disastrous 4th quarter. Let’s see if the bulls can keep the pressure on the beleaguered bears next week.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jim

Well Beyond “Just Do It.”

Opinions on the quality of individual original content programming on ESPN vary.  It ranges from excellent to steaming hot, mid summer Manhattan, New York, New York garbage.  Yep, that’s quite the range.  Two that we feel are on the excellent side are Outside the Lines and 30 for 30.

So, the other night when James Harden’s scoring streak crossed over 30 thirty games with 30 points or more per, we began to wonder.  What “inside the lines” performance, regardless of the sport, is the most excellent of all time?  Harden’s run is indeed impressive.  But, it’s not even the best historically in basketball.  Wilt Chamberlain holds the all-time record at an amazing 65 straight games, set during his astounding 1961-62 campaign, when he averaged an NBA-record 50.4 points and set the single-game scoring mark with 100 points against the New York Knicks on March 2, 1962.

The record of playing in 2,632 consecutive games over more than 16 MLB years is held by Cal Ripken, Jr. of the Baltimore Orioles. Ripken surpassed Lou Gehrig of the New York Yankees, whose record of 2,130 consecutive games had stood for 56 years.  Impressive.  But, that speaks, at the least, to good for a long time.  Tiger Woods once made 142 consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour over several years.  Very Impressive.  That speaks, at the least, to very good over a long period of time.

But that’s not what we’re after.  We are after a run of unmatched, high level, measurable success while we scan multiple sports.  Yet its very hard to measure across sports.

Wilt Chamberlain’s run is the type of run we’re looking for.  How about Oscar Robertson’s season of averaging a triple double? In the 1961–62 season, Robertson became the first player in NBA history to average a triple-double for an entire season, with 30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 11.4 assists.   Robertson also set a then-NBA record for the most triple-doubles during the regular season with 41 triple-doubles; the record would stand for over half a century when, in 2016–17, Russell Westbrook recorded 42 and joined Robertson as the only other player to average a triple-double for an entire season.  Very, very impressive.  Now we’re getting somewhere.

Is there anything harder to do, though, than hit a baseball consistently for a long stretch?  Yankee Joe DiMaggio holds the Major League Baseball record with a streak of 56 consecutive games in which he got at least one hit.  In 1941, it began on May 15 and ended July 17. DiMaggio hit .408 during his streak (91-for-223), with 15 home runs and 55 runs batted in.  Baseball’s best get out seven out of every ten time they bat over the course of most careers.

Surely one off night, or one dominant pitcher, would prevent any mortal from going 56 straight games.  Ask Pete Rose. “Pressure? Well it ain’t hitting in forty-four straight games, because I done that and it was fun. The playoffs are pressure.” – Pete Rose .  He forgot (or as they say today misremembered) that he was chasing Joltin’ Joe D. and fell quite short.  Forty-four is over 20% less than 56.  You may have heard that Peter Rose, aka Charlie Hustle, sometimes has trouble telling the truth.

Wayne Gretzky was also unstoppable for a run on ice that left all others stone cold. The Great One scored the most points in one season including the playoffs with 255 in 1984-1985Nestled inside of that run was four goals in one period and most assists in one game with seven.  There are many other candidates we are sure.

Rocky Marciano never lost a boxing match.  Never.  49-0.  Byron Nelson won 11 straight golf tournaments.  11.

We could go on.  Choosing one across sports is impossible.  But, someone once said “Impossible is Nothing.”  Not for nothing, we choose The Big O, Oscar Robertson’s season of triple doubles by the slimmest of margins over Marilyn Monroe’s ex husband’s hit streak.  What’s your choice?

 

 

 

 

 

Stocks Resilient in the face of Headlines and Retail Sales

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

The stock market is showing some impressive resilience. The bears delivered a haymaker this morning in the form of a miserable retails sales number, which initially did send stocks lower (more than 250 Dow points), but those losses were erased by midday. As the afternoon wore on and headlines hit that the President was going to sign the spending bill and declare a state emergency, market participants stepped back and stocks drifted lower into the close.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 103 points to finish the day at 25,439. The S&P 500 was down 7 points to close at 2,745. Gold was up $1 to trade at $1,315 per ounce, while oil was up $.63 to trade at $54.53 per barrel WTI.

Yes, we continue to straddle formidable resistance levels, but the bulls have to be encouraged that a lukewarm corporate earnings season and mixed economic data hasn’t put more pressure on stocks. Headlines move markets, but mostly are forgotten rather quickly. Economic data and corporate earnings are the true weighing apparatus of the markets. Let’s see how the week finishes out tomorrow.

Have a nice evening everyone.

 

Jim

Lefty and Shorty- Hopeless Romantics

If Lefty and Shorty were still with us early this morning might have unfolded like this.

Lefty and Shorty sat quietly in the quite cool but early spring air.  It was only 5:30 AM, and cars were nowhere to be found.  Lefty- Why do we open up so early?  Shorty- So that we can discuss what the meaning of Valentine’s Day is of course.

Lefty sat to the left of Shorty.  Imagine that.  Shorty sat on the shorter of the two “halves” of the 55 gallon drum. Imagine that.  Each were cut down to size and retrofitted with a soft cushion top.  Lefty looked confused-very.

Lefty- Why do you even bring that up today?  Shorty-Because today is Valentine’s Day.  Lefty looked at Shorty like a mechanic does to a blown engine.  Lefty-It is?  Shorty- Yes, it is. Lefty- No wonder I got the cold shoulder this AM. Shorty- You forgot to say Happy Valentine’s Day to Mrs. Lefty? Lefty- Um, yea.

Shorty- You better stop on your way home tonight and get her some chocolates and flowers.  Lefty- Flowers are worthless.  Shorty- Not to women, they have different sized vases for most any arrangement, and they know right where they are.  Lefty- And, she doesn’t need any chocolates. Shorty- Need has nothing to do with Valentine’s Day.  Lefty- It should.  Shorty- Trust me.

Lefty- Does your wife ever ask if the dress she is considering wearing makes her look fat?  Shorty- It’s the ultimate no win answer and its times 5 dangerous today.  Lefty- How do you answer?  Shorty- I pretend not to hear the question these days.  Lefty- Why?  Shorty- Once I told her ‘no, it’s all of the chocolates that you eat that does.’  Lefty- How did that go over?  Shorty- Not too good.  I wound up having to buy her flowers and chocolates to smooth it over.  Shorty- I guess I better do the same later today.  Lefty- Don’t forget the heartfelt card too or she’ll save that nugget and you’ll hear about it between now and roughly Memorial Day.

Shorty- At least MLB pitchers and catchers report to spring training today.

 

What’s Important Now?

Al Davis, the unconventional owner and GM of the Oakland Raiders from its first days in the Sixties, until his last days in the New Millenium, coined the phrase “Just Win, Baby!”  And his Raiders won and won.  Two Super Bowl wins and two more appearances with several coaches and ever-changing personnel in an ever-changing league bears that out.

Of course his baby son, Mark Davis, now principal owner and GM of his dad’s beloved Raiders might be the biggest winner in Raider Nation.  His dad turned a 50k investment in a fledgling upstart American Football League into an icon valued at well over 1.5 billion dollars.   That’s billion with a “b” if your 2.0x readers are around here somewhere.

Nick Saban, the six-time NCAA championship winner, and arguably(is it even really arguable?) the greatest coach in college football history, coined the phrase “focus on the process and the results will take care of themselves.”  His focus is such that his overall w/l record is 233-63-1.  His Bama record is 141-21 with six of the losses coming in year one as he quickly rebuilt the Crimson Tide.  His coaching tree is now a coaching forest and sprouting new saplings yearly.

Tyrone Willingham, the one time head coach of Stanford, then Notre Dame, and finally Washington, coined the acronym “WIN”.  He has gone on to explain that it stands for  “What’s Important Now?”  Of the three men, Davis, Saban, and Willingham, Tyrone has by far the most modest accomplishments.  He lost more games at the helm 88, than he won, 76.  Though, we point out that coaching at three fine universities is in and of itself success.

Why might we refer to Willingham, who stands in the shadow of these two unrelated but both hugely successful men, in the same post as them?  It’s because we feel like WIN-What’s Important Now is a clean, clear, and simple to use “words to live by.”  And live by them we try daily.

This writer was fortunate to hear the impressive Willingham speak well over a decade ago.  Meticulous in his dress, he meticulously outlined what WIN meant to him.  In short after he establishes a goal or goals for himself he asks what it takes to accomplish them.  From there he writes them down. Then he organizes them from which are the most important down to the least.  And, he revisits the list daily, resorting after either accomplishing some or evaluating others, in the ever-changing world that we live in.

Note, this list isn’t what is urgent in others minds.  Failure to plan on your part does not create an emergency (urgency) on mine.  Separating what is perceived as urgent from wha tis important seems critical.  Heck it sounds one heck of a lot like “focus on the process.”

Does this sound rather simple? In theory we think it is.  In application it requires dedication and passion.  Oh, and most of all it requires the “how.”  Once the “when” to do and “what” to do, are organized the “how” separates us.  The “how,” is Saban’s process.

Getting things done through others can be tough.  But if you don’t know what’s important now then they won’t either.  If they don’t, the agenda has no direction and the urgent replaces the process.

Willingham may not have been the most successful, but for us one evening, and to this day, he was the most inspirational.

Who doesn’t want to win?

WIN-What’s Important Now?

 

The Market Likes Deals

  Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

 

 
JIM CARLTON

Managing Director
Chief Investment Officer

 

Friends

As old Monty Hall used to say “let’s make a deal”. A nice rally in stocks today was attributed to reports that a deal on the budget seems to have been reached (but not yet blessed by the President), and that there appears to be progress on a deal with China(of course, those tea leaves are next to impossible to trust). Nevertheless, the markets like deals, and more importantly, the more uncertainty that can be taken out of the situation, the better. Stocks got off to a good start this morning and were able to add to those gains as the trading session wore on.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 372 points to finish the day at 25,425. The S&P 500 was up 34 points to close at 2,744. Gold was up $2 to trade at $1,314 per ounce, while oil was up $.70 to trade at $53.11 per barrel WTI.

Again, stocks are bumping up against resistance, and both the bulls and the bears seem to be a bit on edge. If the bulls can push through, the bears will be left to play defense, which could actually push stocks even higher. On the other hand, if the bulls fail, the bears can claim the resistance held again and that a retest of December’s lows is still in the cards. Amazingly, stocks lost nearly 20% in less than 90 days last quarter, and have recaptured about two thirds of that in less than 45 days so far this year. Even the most ardent bulls have to be surprised by the power of this rally given the circumstances. Let’s see if the government deal gets done this week and if we can get that uncertainly behind us.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

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 *Numbers and figures sourced from the following: Bloomberg.com, CNBC.com and Finance.Yahoo.com.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
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