Author: thependulumswings staff

Super Bowl Blind Squirrels.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Yesterday part two of our Super Bowl worst, best, first, and last series rolled on.  We offered our opinion on who the worst quarterbacks were to win a Super Bowl.  Doug Williams took home first place.  Unfortunately first meant worst for the former Grambling St. hero.

Super Bowl winners come in different shapes and sizes, but they usually have two things in common.  One, they have a real good or great coach.  And two, they have a real good or great quarterback.  There are outliers of course.  So, who might be those outliers?

We continue to examine those very questions in part three of our series.  Today we examine the question “who is the worst quarterback to start and lose a Super Bowl?”  Our take from bad to worse is below.

The competition for this (dis)honor is surprisingly strong.  Honorable mentions and yellow spirit ribbons go to……..

…Billy Kilmer for being the most out of shape and for throwing more ducks than fly in south Louisiana in the fall.

…Chris Chandler for lasting 17 years in the league, but having seven different teams let him walk to the next one.

…Tony Eason who threw for a measly 11k yards in 9 years in the league and getting Super Bowl shuffled and pulverized by the 1986 Chicago Bears.

The envelopes for third to worst please.

3.  Vince Ferragamo- Ferragamo gave it his all v. Terry Bradshaw and the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1979 before losing 31-19.  The third round pick of the Rams, Ferragamo was 27-26 as a starter throwing for 11k yards in an otherwise undistinguished career.  He threw more interceptions, 91, than touchdowns, 76.  His career passer rating of 70.1 places him 151st all-time, just a hair ahead of the one and only Joey Harrington.  Whew.

2.  Rex Grossman- Grossman and the out manned Chicago Bears lost to Indianapolis in the 2006 Super Bowl.  Peyton Manning won his first of two SB’s in an otherwise forgettable contest.  For his career he was only 25-22 as a starter that somehow lasted 10 years in the league.  He too tossed more in his time to the other team, 60, than he threw for touchdowns to his own team, 56.  His career completion percentage was 55.2%.  Given that he played until 2012 when many helpful rules and protections are afforded QB’s makes that inaccuracy hard to believe.  Whew.  He must have carried a mean clipboard.

1. David Woodley-  Woodley was an 8th round pick by the Miami Dolphins in 1980 when the league still had 12 rounds.  He played for a brief 6 years in the NFL, only two as a starter, and compiled stats befitting of an 8th rounder.   A 53 percent completion percentage, 8k total passing yards, 48 tds, and 63 picks add up to a QB rating of 65.7.  Billy Joe Tolliver is two points better.  Woodley and his Dolphins lost to Joe Theisman’s Redskins in SB XVII 27-17.  Woodley, true to his NFL form,  was 4-17 for 80 yards and an interception in that contest. Whew.  Seventy six of those yards came on one pass play.  A short three years later Woodley retired from the NFL before the NFL could retire him.

As we stated yesterday, no NFL level quarterback is actually bad.  But, how these three found their way to a Super Bowl reminds us of the proverbial blind squirrel finding a runners up Super Bowl ring.   Or, something like that.

 

 

 

The Worst Finished First.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Last week we wrote the following.

Should one or two slight upsets occur, Jared Goff and Tom Brady would lead either or both of the Rams and Patriots to the very lovely(ahem) and picturesque, beautiful Atlanta.  Therefore, regardless of the outcome of the games, a “franchise” quarterback will eventually lead his team to the podium to cherish the coveted Lombardi Trophy.  Brady and Brees are the old guard great qbs.  Goff and Mahomes are the up and coming ones.

Roger Goodell will (we hope and think) get booed loudly prior to the presentation.  But, we digress.

Super Bowl winners come in different shapes and sizes, but they usually have two things in common.  One, they have a real good or great coach.  And two, they have a real good or great quarterback.  There are outliers of course.  So, who might be those outliers?

We continue to examine those very questions in our run up to the Super Bowl features continuing today.  Today we examine the question “who is the worst quarterback to have won a Super Bowl?”  Our take from bad to worse is in reverse order below.

3.  (tie) Mark Rypien– Rypien led the Washington Redskins to a 37-24 SB win over the Buffalo Bills in 1991.  The sixth round pick by the Skins in 1986 started for only 5 years, won just 47 games, and completed a modest 56% of his career pass attempts.  His team bettered the Bills led by Jim Kelly who we selected as the third best QB to have played in but never won a Super Bowl.  His career passing rating is 78.9.  That’s 80th all-time for qb’s who have met the minimums to qualify.  He’s tied with Byron Leftwich.  Ouch.

3.  (tie) Jeff Hostetler– A real gamer Hostetler filled in for half of a season and the playoffs for Phil Simms.  He rode a dominate Bill Parcells defense to a 20-19 triumph over the Jim Kelly led Bills a year before Rypien did the same.  He won only 51 games as a starter(4 years) in his career and completed 58% of his passes.  He did get one trip to Hawaii for a Pro Bowl.  His 16k career yards ranks 136th just 100 yards ahead of one Rodney Peete. Ouch.

Ray Said Get Out of the Way!

2.  Trent Dilfer– Dilfer was a first round pick of the TB Buccaneers in 1994.  After moving to the Baltimore Ravens he won a ring with them punishing the New York Football Giants 34-7.  In the 4-0 playoff run that year he threw for only three touchdowns.  He basically stayed out-of-the-way of one of the most dominant defenses in NFL history led by Ray Lewis.  For his career Dilfer threw 129 interceptions v 113 touchdowns and completed only 56% of his attempts.  His 70.2 passer rating is 149th all time and ranks below Rex Grossman.  Ouch.

1.  Doug Williams- Williams also was a first round pick of the TB Buccaneers.  As a starter in his nine-year career he lost 42 and won only 38 games.  After TB he went to Washington and played lights out in SB XXI whipping John Elway and the Denver Broncos 42-10.  He threw 100 NFL TD’s against 93 picks.  His passer rating was a quite low 69.4.  His 49 percent career completion percentage held true to form in the 1987 playoff run to the SB as he completed 49% of those attempted as well.  It was a bit of a different era back then, but 49% is 49%.  Ouch.

No NFL level quarterback is bad.  But relatively speaking these four “bad ones” won the biggest game of them all.

Some how. Some way.

One Minute and Fifty Eight Seconds Left. Do You Make the Call to the Bullpen?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

In baseball, managers face the decision late in a game of when to pull pitchers and replace them with relievers.  One of three outcomes are possible.  If the starter and reliever get by unscathed the manager has succeeded.  If he waits too long and the starter falters he gets seconded guessed.  Fans sound off with “he should have gone with the reliever.”   If he pulls the starter before any real damage is done, but the reliever gets lit up he gets second guessed.  Fans sound off with “he should have stayed with the starter.”  None of the three outcomes are predictable to any certainty.

Similarly, in football, a head coach decides how to attack late in the game as well.  If you can score to go ahead, the “how” and “when” to do so can determine the final score.  In yesterday’s NFC Championship Game, Sean Payton faced this very dilemma.

If you live under a rock and/or don’t recall the moment, let’s reset the big stage under the bright lights.  The N.O. Saints had a first and 10 on the LA Rams 13 yard line.  The play that got them there was whistled dead with 1:58 to go in the fourth quarter.   That’s a TV timeout for the two-minute warning.  The score stood even at 20-20.  A very coveted berth in Super Bowl LIII was there for the taking.  The Rams had two timeouts remaining.

So, what is the surest outcome to gain that berth?  The surest would be to score on the game’s final play thereby eliminating any chance of comeback by the Rams by preventing them from touching the ball again.

But, with two timeouts and 1:58 left the only way to hold the ball and score on the aforementioned final play would require a first down.  Why?  It’s because the Rams would burn their timeouts immediately after first and second down assuming the Saints didn’t stop the clock themselves. Then, on third down, the clock would run till either a play on fourth down was run or the Saints called a timeout themselves.

Assume timeout number one at 1:53 and timeout number two at 1:48.  Third down would consume another five seconds to 1:43.  The 40 second clock could run down to one second, then the Saints would call a timeout.  That would leave 1:04 remaining.  A field goal could take four seconds and that would have left exactly one minute and no timeouts for the Rams.  This would give the Saints the lead by three, but not assure victory.  If they scored a touchdown on third down about 1:43 would remain.  This would give the Saints the lead by six(pending the point after) but more time for the Rams who would now need a touchdown to tie.

All of the above screams loudly again that the only sure way to win is to score on the final play and to do so would require a first down.

So, why did the Saints pass on first down in this scenario?  Payton gave Drew Brees the option to check into the quick slant to Michael Thomas and out of the run play called if the Rams showed blitz.  The Rams went to cover zero (no safeties, man on man, and all other defenders roaring to the ball carrier) run blitz.  Brees to Thomas this year had an 80% plus completion to target rate.  That’s almost as sure as a handoff to run clock.  But against cover zero it had a much better chance to gain yards than a run.  Remember, a first down almost assuredly wins the game.

Brees, shockingly, threw poorly and the ball landed at Thomas’ feet.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  There is no right answer to the play call because no outcome on first down unto itself determines the game.  It only tilts the odds from a bit to considerable.  If Thomas catches it and scores it’s considerably in the Saints favor.  An incomplete saves a timeout for the Rams, but little else.

Second down brought a predictable run and a timeout.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  If you wanted a run on first down you must have wanted a run on second down for the same reason as well.  Timeout Rams.

Third down and ten is now staring you in the face.  The run blitz on first down and the blow up of the second down run would have landed them in the same down and distance.  The difference was one saved timeout to this point for the Rams.  If you fail to get a first down now, a field goal hangs in the balance.  Would you have called a run here?  If so the Rams burn timeout number two and you kick.  That would have left them nearly 1:40 on the clock and no timeouts.  In the NFL with a kicker who was drilling warmup kicks from 65 yards(trust us on that one) 100 seconds is a long, long time.

Payton called a pass play.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  With the ball in the air a few outcomes were possible. A first down would have been the best.  A touchdown would have been super.  An incomplete pass would save a Ram’s timeout.  An interception was remote given the route, coverage, and ball placement.  Last but certainly not least, a pass interference penalty would have also given you a first down.  That’s the best outcome available and a sure chip shot field goal win would follow.

Payton, if asked, most assuredly would tell you that he played to win, not to not lose.  The word “conservative” is not in his dictionary.

Payton made the call.   The referee did not.

The field goal was good.  However, from that moment till overtime ended in the sudden death of the Saints, the Rams were better.

Remember the baseball manager?

 

 

 

Two to Avoid. Blackballed and Blacklisted.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Have you ever felt faint?  Did it cause you to pass out?  Or, in other words have you ever blacked out?  Scary.  Causes are many.  Physical maladies are usually the culprit.  But emotional stress can provide the impetus as well.  For example what if you were trying to gain entry into a club of your choice and right before your eyes you were denied by the very people who supposedly supported your attempt?  If so, you were blackballed before you blacked out.  What is “blackballing” and where did it come from?

Meaning:  a rejection via secret ballot, where a white ball constitutes a vote in support and a black ball signifies opposition.   A large supply of black and white balls is provided for voters.  Each voter casts a single ball into the ballot box under cover of a cloth and/or the box itself, so that observers can see who votes but not how they are voting.  When the voting is complete, the box is opened and the balls are displayed.  All present can immediately see the result without any means of knowing which members objected.

Origin:  Since the seventeenth century, these rules have commonly applied to elections to membership of many gentlemen’s clubs, country clubs, and fraternities.  This system is typically used where a club’s rules provide that one or two objections, rather than an at-least-50% share of votes, are sufficient to defeat a proposition.

It would be bad enough to be blackballed denying entry into a specific organization you covet. At least here are other clubs that you could join.  However, it would be far worse if you were rejected by an entire industry or profession.  In that case you would be “blacklisted.”

Meaning: to put someone’s name on a list of people who are considered not acceptable, which keeps the person from getting jobs, going certain places, or doing particular things.

Origin:  possibly as early as the 1610’s indicative of disgrace, censure, punishment (attested to in a black book) . It was specifically used as an employers’ list of workers considered troublesome (usually for union activity) and is from 1884 or sooner.

People have been getting rejected or ostracised for centuries.  One supposes that if you had to choose it would be better to be blackballed than blacklisted.  But, it would be best to avoid both obviously.  Neither are for the faint of heart.

 

 

 

Three Greats went Ohhhh for Eight.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Way back on October 3rd we told the story of how Patrick Mahomes very nearly became a New Orleans Saint.  Because of an astute and aggressive draft day trade he became a Kansas City Chief instead.  The link provided tells that interesting story in case you had not yet become a boomboomsroom.com reader.

Fast forward to today, January 18th.  My, how the story has advanced.  It’s likely when the MVP voting is done that Mahomes will win the award and edge out Drew Brees in doing so.  It’ll be a one/two finish for sure.  But, the even bigger story is that each of them will quarterback their teams this weekend in the AFC and NFC Championship Games.   The winners head to the Super Bowl in lovely Atlanta.  KC and NO are each three point favorites to do just that.

Should one or two slight upsets occur, Jared Goff and Tom Brady would lead either or both of the Rams and Patriots to the very lovely(ahem) and picturesque, beautiful Atlanta.  Therefore, regardless of the outcome of the games, a “franchise” quarterback will eventually lead his team to the podium to cherish the coveted Lombardi Trophy.  Brady and Brees are the old guard great qbs.  Goff and Mahomes are the up and coming ones.

Roger Goodell will (we hope and think) get booed loudly prior to the presentation.  But, we digress.

Super Bowl winners come in different shapes and sizes, but they usually have two things in common.  One, they have a real good or great coach.  And two, they have a real good or great quarterback.  There are outliers of course.  So, who might be those outliers?

We will begin to examine those very questions in our run up to the Super Bowl features starting today.  We will continue with them by the middle of next week. Today we examine the question “who is the best quarterback to participate in, but not ever win, a Super Bowl?”  Our take in reverse order is below.

3. Jim Kelly– The only qb to ever lose four Super Bowls, and four straight in 1990-1993 at that, was a first year eligible NFL Hall of             Fame inductee.  His K-Gun offense in Buffalo was electric.  He threw for over 35,000 yards and 287 touchdowns in his NFL                     career after spending two years in the USFL amassing formidable stats there as well.

2. Fran Tarkington– A three-time SB loser, Tarkington played for 18 NFL seasons in what was a different era.  Quarterbacks                       weren’t nearly as protected as today.  The HOF inductee lead almost all career statistical QB measurements when he retired. He             threw for over 47,000 yards and 342 touchdowns playing for the Vikings at the outset and conclusion of his career.  A five year                 NY Giants stint was sandwiched in between.

  1. Dan Marino– Marino soared with his Dolphins all the way to the big show in just his second year and first as a full-time starter.  It was a one way ticket as he never returned. His ticket to Canton was well-earned though.  In 17 distinguished NFL seasons he went to the playoffs ten times. He threw for over 61,000 yards, and tossed 420 touchdowns.   All of that and a bevy of game, season, and career records make him the clear choice for the “best ever to appear but never win.”   Not bad for being the fifth QB drafted in a QB heavy, famous 1983 class.

Kelly, Tarkington, and Marino are three of the best.  Collectively they played in 46 NFL seasons.  They won 379 games.  They played in eight Super Bowls. They won none.

 

 

 

As They May Say Across the Pond, “Bloody Sheep!”

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We ugly Americans are gluttonous.  More is better.   We collect.  Some even hoard.  More insurance.  More regulations.   “More, more, more” sang Andrea True in 1976.  But when you “have more than you can shake a stick at” you likely have too much.  What pray tell does that mean and where did that phrase come from?

Meaning: Having more of something than you need
History: Farmers controlled their sheep by shaking their staffs to indicate where the animals should go. When farmers had more sheep than they could control, it was said they had “more than you can shake a stick at.”

But, just because one owns more than they can handle or might need it doesn’t give you the right to steal from them.  Maybe you could beg.  Maybe you could borrow.  But you shalt not steal.  If you do grab a sheep or two, be sure to wash away the evidence right away.  After all you don’t want to be “caught with blood on your hands.”

Meaning: To be caught doing something wrong
History: This saying originated because of a law. If someone butchered an animal that didn’t belong to him, he had to be caught with the animal’s blood on his hands to be convicted. Being caught with freshly cut meat did not make the person guilty.

Seems like it was tough even way back then to convict someone of a crime.  That must be why it seems like we have more criminals than we can shake a stick at.

I Have Yet Another Story and a Moral Thereof.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As a business professional newbie the excitement for my first ever sales meeting trip grew by the day.  Our company had met its overall goal.  Las Vegas here we come.   And, as a bonus, individuals who met their goals were invited out a day earlier to enjoy some sun, fun, and a round of golf if you so pleased.

In 1983 the old Desert Inn, one of Vegas’ first and finest, had just completed a huge remodel.  As our taxi wheeled us onto the property everything seemed larger than life.  A coworker and I grabbed our over the shoulder bags (few are made anymore), our briefcases (even fewer are made anymore), and our golf clubs (few that hit it straight were ever made).  The long check in lines at the wide front reception area awaited.

Checking in can take forever in Vegas.  This time-lapse can be compounded if you chose the wrong line.  Why they didn’t(and some still don’t) have one line a la a bank queue is one of life’s great mysteries.  The lines were quite long.  We chose one roughly in the middle of about a dozen that each stretched a good 40 or so feet.  This made passing through the lobby a crazy cross weave through humans and their collective baggage.

Our approaching tee time left us anxious to get this done.  As each guest registered and carried their belongings away the remaining unregistered of us (sheep) picked our belongings up, moved forward one spot, and set them all down a bit closer to the coveted check in.

In the same line my buddy was right behind me.  Our banter, bragging, and betting on the coming round helped pass the time and mostly allowed us to ignore the chaos of it all.

As it was time to move up one more spot yet again I slung all of what I brought over my shoulders and picked up the case to advance.  His wisecrack made me turn back to him to get in another word.  I over did it and my golf clubs suddenly had circular momentum.  One unfortunate human was knifing through perpendicular to our line and my spot just then.  My clubs, fueled by my momentum, cut his legs right out from underneath him.  “Down goes Frazier,” Howard Cosell would have reported.

As I dropped what I owned to help my victim up from his sprawled on the marble fall I instantly saw who it was.  Good news.  It wasn’t Smokin’ Joe.  Bad news.  It was a smoking hot, Las Vegas headline entertainer named Sammy Davis Jr.  One very important member  of the famous Rat Pack lie before me clutching his leg.  Ouch.

I asked if he was alright as I helped him to his feet.  He muttered something like, “it’s all cool man.”  I wanted to ask if he was going to mention this to Frank Sinatra, another famous Rat Pack member.  And, more importantly to me at that moment, he purportedly had mafia ties.  I figured it would lighten the moment.  I reconsidered.  Instead I said, “I’m quite sorry for this.”  He nodded and plodded along, his limp barely noticeable.

Oh, what’s the moral of the story?  In show business timing is everything.  Get it right and you can knock them off of their feet.

 

 

 

The NFL’s Seeds are Sown.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NFL rules committee reviews in painstaking detail all proposed changes to its game and its league once each year.  The definition of what a catch is, a fumble is, and what roughing the quarterback is has changed far too often for well-intentioned but misguided reasons.  Booth reviews became a necessity when the complexity of the rules rose exponentially.

However, one competitive rule that has not changed in many years is how playoff teams are seeded and how the resultant path to the Super Bowl paved.  We think that it’s the best format of any major sport and second place isn’t close.   Why?  We briefly touch on that in a few thoughts below.

  1. In each conference if you make it as a wild card you travel in week one of the playoffs to the two lower seeded (of the four) division champions.  You’re in, but your road is three games long and all three are away from home.  Advantage division champions.
  2. The survivors of wild card weekend travel to the one and two seeded team’s stadiums.  The lowest seed travels to the one seed, the other to the two seed.  Advantage one seed and two seed division champions.
  3. The one and two seeds have the wild card weekend off.  After five months of physical grind this is a very welcome respite. Big advantage one seed and two seed division champions.
  4. The highest remaining seed after the second weekend hosts the lower seed.  If the seeds hold this is the last advantage earned by the number one seeded division champ.

So what happened this past weekend?  Points three and four above is what happened.  The AFC and NFC top two seeds hosted and held serve in all four games.  Their success in the regular season earned them this leg up and they made good use of it.

On average three of the four home teams in the just completed division championship weekend win.  However, this year it was all four.  Many “experts” talked about how competitive the four visiting teams (Indianapolis, Dallas, Los Angeles (Chargers), and Philadelphia) would make those games.  Indy was done by halftime.  Dallas tried, but never climbed back in from a 13 point halftime deficit.  The Chargers were manhandled.  Only Philly was within a touchdown late in the fourth.

Visitors have tired legs.   Home teams have a week off to rejuvenate tired legs.  Speed kills on the football playing field.

Therefore, in the NFL every regular season game matters.  Maybe the committee will figure out what constitutes a catch one day.  Hopefully it will keep them so busy trying to figure that out that they will leave the seeding system and rewards of it exactly as is.

This coming weekend the best four teams in the NFL will decide who the best two teams in the NFL are.