Author: thependulumswings staff

One Minute and Fifty Eight Seconds Left. Do You Make the Call to the Bullpen?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

In baseball, managers face the decision late in a game of when to pull pitchers and replace them with relievers.  One of three outcomes are possible.  If the starter and reliever get by unscathed the manager has succeeded.  If he waits too long and the starter falters he gets seconded guessed.  Fans sound off with “he should have gone with the reliever.”   If he pulls the starter before any real damage is done, but the reliever gets lit up he gets second guessed.  Fans sound off with “he should have stayed with the starter.”  None of the three outcomes are predictable to any certainty.

Similarly, in football, a head coach decides how to attack late in the game as well.  If you can score to go ahead, the “how” and “when” to do so can determine the final score.  In yesterday’s NFC Championship Game, Sean Payton faced this very dilemma.

If you live under a rock and/or don’t recall the moment, let’s reset the big stage under the bright lights.  The N.O. Saints had a first and 10 on the LA Rams 13 yard line.  The play that got them there was whistled dead with 1:58 to go in the fourth quarter.   That’s a TV timeout for the two-minute warning.  The score stood even at 20-20.  A very coveted berth in Super Bowl LIII was there for the taking.  The Rams had two timeouts remaining.

So, what is the surest outcome to gain that berth?  The surest would be to score on the game’s final play thereby eliminating any chance of comeback by the Rams by preventing them from touching the ball again.

But, with two timeouts and 1:58 left the only way to hold the ball and score on the aforementioned final play would require a first down.  Why?  It’s because the Rams would burn their timeouts immediately after first and second down assuming the Saints didn’t stop the clock themselves. Then, on third down, the clock would run till either a play on fourth down was run or the Saints called a timeout themselves.

Assume timeout number one at 1:53 and timeout number two at 1:48.  Third down would consume another five seconds to 1:43.  The 40 second clock could run down to one second, then the Saints would call a timeout.  That would leave 1:04 remaining.  A field goal could take four seconds and that would have left exactly one minute and no timeouts for the Rams.  This would give the Saints the lead by three, but not assure victory.  If they scored a touchdown on third down about 1:43 would remain.  This would give the Saints the lead by six(pending the point after) but more time for the Rams who would now need a touchdown to tie.

All of the above screams loudly again that the only sure way to win is to score on the final play and to do so would require a first down.

So, why did the Saints pass on first down in this scenario?  Payton gave Drew Brees the option to check into the quick slant to Michael Thomas and out of the run play called if the Rams showed blitz.  The Rams went to cover zero (no safeties, man on man, and all other defenders roaring to the ball carrier) run blitz.  Brees to Thomas this year had an 80% plus completion to target rate.  That’s almost as sure as a handoff to run clock.  But against cover zero it had a much better chance to gain yards than a run.  Remember, a first down almost assuredly wins the game.

Brees, shockingly, threw poorly and the ball landed at Thomas’ feet.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  There is no right answer to the play call because no outcome on first down unto itself determines the game.  It only tilts the odds from a bit to considerable.  If Thomas catches it and scores it’s considerably in the Saints favor.  An incomplete saves a timeout for the Rams, but little else.

Second down brought a predictable run and a timeout.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  If you wanted a run on first down you must have wanted a run on second down for the same reason as well.  Timeout Rams.

Third down and ten is now staring you in the face.  The run blitz on first down and the blow up of the second down run would have landed them in the same down and distance.  The difference was one saved timeout to this point for the Rams.  If you fail to get a first down now, a field goal hangs in the balance.  Would you have called a run here?  If so the Rams burn timeout number two and you kick.  That would have left them nearly 1:40 on the clock and no timeouts.  In the NFL with a kicker who was drilling warmup kicks from 65 yards(trust us on that one) 100 seconds is a long, long time.

Payton called a pass play.  Bad call you say?  Remember the baseball manager?  With the ball in the air a few outcomes were possible. A first down would have been the best.  A touchdown would have been super.  An incomplete pass would save a Ram’s timeout.  An interception was remote given the route, coverage, and ball placement.  Last but certainly not least, a pass interference penalty would have also given you a first down.  That’s the best outcome available and a sure chip shot field goal win would follow.

Payton, if asked, most assuredly would tell you that he played to win, not to not lose.  The word “conservative” is not in his dictionary.

Payton made the call.   The referee did not.

The field goal was good.  However, from that moment till overtime ended in the sudden death of the Saints, the Rams were better.

Remember the baseball manager?

 

 

 

Two to Avoid. Blackballed and Blacklisted.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Have you ever felt faint?  Did it cause you to pass out?  Or, in other words have you ever blacked out?  Scary.  Causes are many.  Physical maladies are usually the culprit.  But emotional stress can provide the impetus as well.  For example what if you were trying to gain entry into a club of your choice and right before your eyes you were denied by the very people who supposedly supported your attempt?  If so, you were blackballed before you blacked out.  What is “blackballing” and where did it come from?

Meaning:  a rejection via secret ballot, where a white ball constitutes a vote in support and a black ball signifies opposition.   A large supply of black and white balls is provided for voters.  Each voter casts a single ball into the ballot box under cover of a cloth and/or the box itself, so that observers can see who votes but not how they are voting.  When the voting is complete, the box is opened and the balls are displayed.  All present can immediately see the result without any means of knowing which members objected.

Origin:  Since the seventeenth century, these rules have commonly applied to elections to membership of many gentlemen’s clubs, country clubs, and fraternities.  This system is typically used where a club’s rules provide that one or two objections, rather than an at-least-50% share of votes, are sufficient to defeat a proposition.

It would be bad enough to be blackballed denying entry into a specific organization you covet. At least here are other clubs that you could join.  However, it would be far worse if you were rejected by an entire industry or profession.  In that case you would be “blacklisted.”

Meaning: to put someone’s name on a list of people who are considered not acceptable, which keeps the person from getting jobs, going certain places, or doing particular things.

Origin:  possibly as early as the 1610’s indicative of disgrace, censure, punishment (attested to in a black book) . It was specifically used as an employers’ list of workers considered troublesome (usually for union activity) and is from 1884 or sooner.

People have been getting rejected or ostracised for centuries.  One supposes that if you had to choose it would be better to be blackballed than blacklisted.  But, it would be best to avoid both obviously.  Neither are for the faint of heart.

 

 

 

Three Greats went Ohhhh for Eight.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Way back on October 3rd we told the story of how Patrick Mahomes very nearly became a New Orleans Saint.  Because of an astute and aggressive draft day trade he became a Kansas City Chief instead.  The link provided tells that interesting story in case you had not yet become a boomboomsroom.com reader.

Fast forward to today, January 18th.  My, how the story has advanced.  It’s likely when the MVP voting is done that Mahomes will win the award and edge out Drew Brees in doing so.  It’ll be a one/two finish for sure.  But, the even bigger story is that each of them will quarterback their teams this weekend in the AFC and NFC Championship Games.   The winners head to the Super Bowl in lovely Atlanta.  KC and NO are each three point favorites to do just that.

Should one or two slight upsets occur, Jared Goff and Tom Brady would lead either or both of the Rams and Patriots to the very lovely(ahem) and picturesque, beautiful Atlanta.  Therefore, regardless of the outcome of the games, a “franchise” quarterback will eventually lead his team to the podium to cherish the coveted Lombardi Trophy.  Brady and Brees are the old guard great qbs.  Goff and Mahomes are the up and coming ones.

Roger Goodell will (we hope and think) get booed loudly prior to the presentation.  But, we digress.

Super Bowl winners come in different shapes and sizes, but they usually have two things in common.  One, they have a real good or great coach.  And two, they have a real good or great quarterback.  There are outliers of course.  So, who might be those outliers?

We will begin to examine those very questions in our run up to the Super Bowl features starting today.  We will continue with them by the middle of next week. Today we examine the question “who is the best quarterback to participate in, but not ever win, a Super Bowl?”  Our take in reverse order is below.

3. Jim Kelly– The only qb to ever lose four Super Bowls, and four straight in 1990-1993 at that, was a first year eligible NFL Hall of             Fame inductee.  His K-Gun offense in Buffalo was electric.  He threw for over 35,000 yards and 287 touchdowns in his NFL                     career after spending two years in the USFL amassing formidable stats there as well.

2. Fran Tarkington– A three-time SB loser, Tarkington played for 18 NFL seasons in what was a different era.  Quarterbacks                       weren’t nearly as protected as today.  The HOF inductee lead almost all career statistical QB measurements when he retired. He             threw for over 47,000 yards and 342 touchdowns playing for the Vikings at the outset and conclusion of his career.  A five year                 NY Giants stint was sandwiched in between.

  1. Dan Marino– Marino soared with his Dolphins all the way to the big show in just his second year and first as a full-time starter.  It was a one way ticket as he never returned. His ticket to Canton was well-earned though.  In 17 distinguished NFL seasons he went to the playoffs ten times. He threw for over 61,000 yards, and tossed 420 touchdowns.   All of that and a bevy of game, season, and career records make him the clear choice for the “best ever to appear but never win.”   Not bad for being the fifth QB drafted in a QB heavy, famous 1983 class.

Kelly, Tarkington, and Marino are three of the best.  Collectively they played in 46 NFL seasons.  They won 379 games.  They played in eight Super Bowls. They won none.

 

 

 

As They May Say Across the Pond, “Bloody Sheep!”

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We ugly Americans are gluttonous.  More is better.   We collect.  Some even hoard.  More insurance.  More regulations.   “More, more, more” sang Andrea True in 1976.  But when you “have more than you can shake a stick at” you likely have too much.  What pray tell does that mean and where did that phrase come from?

Meaning: Having more of something than you need
History: Farmers controlled their sheep by shaking their staffs to indicate where the animals should go. When farmers had more sheep than they could control, it was said they had “more than you can shake a stick at.”

But, just because one owns more than they can handle or might need it doesn’t give you the right to steal from them.  Maybe you could beg.  Maybe you could borrow.  But you shalt not steal.  If you do grab a sheep or two, be sure to wash away the evidence right away.  After all you don’t want to be “caught with blood on your hands.”

Meaning: To be caught doing something wrong
History: This saying originated because of a law. If someone butchered an animal that didn’t belong to him, he had to be caught with the animal’s blood on his hands to be convicted. Being caught with freshly cut meat did not make the person guilty.

Seems like it was tough even way back then to convict someone of a crime.  That must be why it seems like we have more criminals than we can shake a stick at.

I Have Yet Another Story and a Moral Thereof.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As a business professional newbie the excitement for my first ever sales meeting trip grew by the day.  Our company had met its overall goal.  Las Vegas here we come.   And, as a bonus, individuals who met their goals were invited out a day earlier to enjoy some sun, fun, and a round of golf if you so pleased.

In 1983 the old Desert Inn, one of Vegas’ first and finest, had just completed a huge remodel.  As our taxi wheeled us onto the property everything seemed larger than life.  A coworker and I grabbed our over the shoulder bags (few are made anymore), our briefcases (even fewer are made anymore), and our golf clubs (few that hit it straight were ever made).  The long check in lines at the wide front reception area awaited.

Checking in can take forever in Vegas.  This time-lapse can be compounded if you chose the wrong line.  Why they didn’t(and some still don’t) have one line a la a bank queue is one of life’s great mysteries.  The lines were quite long.  We chose one roughly in the middle of about a dozen that each stretched a good 40 or so feet.  This made passing through the lobby a crazy cross weave through humans and their collective baggage.

Our approaching tee time left us anxious to get this done.  As each guest registered and carried their belongings away the remaining unregistered of us (sheep) picked our belongings up, moved forward one spot, and set them all down a bit closer to the coveted check in.

In the same line my buddy was right behind me.  Our banter, bragging, and betting on the coming round helped pass the time and mostly allowed us to ignore the chaos of it all.

As it was time to move up one more spot yet again I slung all of what I brought over my shoulders and picked up the case to advance.  His wisecrack made me turn back to him to get in another word.  I over did it and my golf clubs suddenly had circular momentum.  One unfortunate human was knifing through perpendicular to our line and my spot just then.  My clubs, fueled by my momentum, cut his legs right out from underneath him.  “Down goes Frazier,” Howard Cosell would have reported.

As I dropped what I owned to help my victim up from his sprawled on the marble fall I instantly saw who it was.  Good news.  It wasn’t Smokin’ Joe.  Bad news.  It was a smoking hot, Las Vegas headline entertainer named Sammy Davis Jr.  One very important member  of the famous Rat Pack lie before me clutching his leg.  Ouch.

I asked if he was alright as I helped him to his feet.  He muttered something like, “it’s all cool man.”  I wanted to ask if he was going to mention this to Frank Sinatra, another famous Rat Pack member.  And, more importantly to me at that moment, he purportedly had mafia ties.  I figured it would lighten the moment.  I reconsidered.  Instead I said, “I’m quite sorry for this.”  He nodded and plodded along, his limp barely noticeable.

Oh, what’s the moral of the story?  In show business timing is everything.  Get it right and you can knock them off of their feet.

 

 

 

The NFL’s Seeds are Sown.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NFL rules committee reviews in painstaking detail all proposed changes to its game and its league once each year.  The definition of what a catch is, a fumble is, and what roughing the quarterback is has changed far too often for well-intentioned but misguided reasons.  Booth reviews became a necessity when the complexity of the rules rose exponentially.

However, one competitive rule that has not changed in many years is how playoff teams are seeded and how the resultant path to the Super Bowl paved.  We think that it’s the best format of any major sport and second place isn’t close.   Why?  We briefly touch on that in a few thoughts below.

  1. In each conference if you make it as a wild card you travel in week one of the playoffs to the two lower seeded (of the four) division champions.  You’re in, but your road is three games long and all three are away from home.  Advantage division champions.
  2. The survivors of wild card weekend travel to the one and two seeded team’s stadiums.  The lowest seed travels to the one seed, the other to the two seed.  Advantage one seed and two seed division champions.
  3. The one and two seeds have the wild card weekend off.  After five months of physical grind this is a very welcome respite. Big advantage one seed and two seed division champions.
  4. The highest remaining seed after the second weekend hosts the lower seed.  If the seeds hold this is the last advantage earned by the number one seeded division champ.

So what happened this past weekend?  Points three and four above is what happened.  The AFC and NFC top two seeds hosted and held serve in all four games.  Their success in the regular season earned them this leg up and they made good use of it.

On average three of the four home teams in the just completed division championship weekend win.  However, this year it was all four.  Many “experts” talked about how competitive the four visiting teams (Indianapolis, Dallas, Los Angeles (Chargers), and Philadelphia) would make those games.  Indy was done by halftime.  Dallas tried, but never climbed back in from a 13 point halftime deficit.  The Chargers were manhandled.  Only Philly was within a touchdown late in the fourth.

Visitors have tired legs.   Home teams have a week off to rejuvenate tired legs.  Speed kills on the football playing field.

Therefore, in the NFL every regular season game matters.  Maybe the committee will figure out what constitutes a catch one day.  Hopefully it will keep them so busy trying to figure that out that they will leave the seeding system and rewards of it exactly as is.

This coming weekend the best four teams in the NFL will decide who the best two teams in the NFL are.

 

 

In the NFL Fashion is King(sbury).

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Psst!  Want to know a little secret about the fashion industry?  When it accomplishes its goal it makes you want to go out and buy something new.  You see the new on tv, magazines, websites, runways, etc.   Suddenly what was new in your closet is old.  You want the new.  You need the new.  You have to have it and have it now.  Suddenly all stores, all designers, all price points are chasing the latest.  Copycats they are.

Psst! Want to know a little secret about the NFL?  When one team has success doing something a certain way or hiring a certain type of coach others follow quickly.  The owners have to have it and have it now.  Copycats they are.

What’s the latest?  The latest is the Sean McVay model.  Sean McVay (born January 24, 1986) is the head coach of the Los Angeles Rams. Upon his hiring in 2017 at the age of 30, he became the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. But most of all he is thought of as a “quarterback whisperer.”  Young Jared Goff exploded onto the “franchise qb” scene last year under McVay’s tutelage.  Combine that with McVay’s youth,daring play calling, and “can do” personna and, suddenly, orange is the new black.

Heck just a few weeks ago, before the weather worsened, teams were engaging in games that were lighting up scoreboards.  Forty something to forty something final scores were in style.  Experts looked at these new designs on all of the fashion shows preening down the runways and pronounced it as the new NFL.

Enter the Arizona Cardinals.  After they parted ways with Bruce Arians (Arizona’s most successful coach since they moved to the desert) in 2017 after five seasons, in came a former DC and DB coach Steve Wilks.  But, after one bad season and no real development of their first round QB draft pick Josh Rosen, out goes the defensive mindset.

Enter Kliff Kingsbury as the new head coach of the Cardinals.  Young ole’ Kliff was terminated by the Texas Tech powers that be after his head coaching ascension there stalled in December at the end of season six.  He accepted the OC job at USC a week or so ago.  Then poof!  Hopefully his lease was minute to minute.

But like Jimmy cracked corn, the Cardinals don’t care about his head coaching past nor his lack of loyalty to USC.  After all he was the OC under Kevin Sumlin at A&M when Johnny “Football” Manziel hit the big screen.  Oh, and then he coached Pat Mahomes at Texas Tech.  Surely he is the next QB guru just like skinny jeans are the new bell bottoms.

Meanwhile, last weekend, both Sunday playoff games entered halftime with none of the four participants scoring a single touchdown.  That was a first.  Ever.  That came on the unfashionable heels of a December 9th Bears defensive shutdown of the high flying Rams 15-6.

The post season credo has been “you have to be able to stop the run and run the ball” to win in the post season.  But, copycat franchises have to have that new fashion fix.  Good luck.

Maybe black is actually the new orange?

 

 

I Have Yet Another Story and a Moral Thereof

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

In August of 1971 the third round draft pick of the New Orleans Saints, Bivian Lee, began practicing with the team that had high hopes for a breakout year.  Also in August of 1971 the high hopes of civic leaders were realized as construction finally began on the largest indoor stadium in the world, the New Orleans Superdome.

Sports visionary David Dixon (who decades later founded the United States Football League) conceptualized the Superdome while attempting to convince the NFL to award a franchise to New Orleans. After hosting exhibition games at Tulane Stadium during typical New Orleans summer thunderstorms, Dixon was told by NFL Commissioner Pete Rozelle that NOLA would have no chance for an NFL expansion team without a domed stadium.

It was hoped the stadium would be ready in time for the 1972 NFL season, at the final cost of $46 million. Instead, construction did not start until August 1971, and was not finished until August 1975.   Factoring in inflation, construction delays, and the increase in transportation costs caused by the 1973 oil crisis, the final price tag of the stadium was nearly four times the estimated.  It was a bloated $165 million.

Meanwhile Bivian and the Saints stumbled along in years 1971,2,3 and 4.  The cumulative record of the team for those four seasons was 16-37-3.  Bivian was good, not great.  The Saints were bad, not good.  High hopes were not yet realized.

Yet hope springs eternal.  It was now August of 1975.  A new NFL season was four preseason games away.  And for the Saints it meant a new home, the Superdome, and a fresh start.

Preseason games are for practice and ironing out the kinks for the most part.  For the operation of the Superdome it was much the same warmup for its soon to be regular season grand opening.

On a steamy NOLA summer Saturday night 70,000 plus fans packed the dome to savor all if its grandeur for an otherwise meaningless preseason game.  Bivian Lee was entering his fifth year and was once again starting at cornerback for the franchise.  That the Saints lost was forgettable.  How they lost was forgettable too.  The stadium was the story.

Well, the why and how of the loss was forgettable until a reporter asked Bivian about getting beat for two touchdowns early in the contest.  He assured all that he would be better in the regular season.  The reporter asked if maybe Bivian had any trouble adjusting to all of the ceiling lights since it was the first game played under them.  He said yes, but again said not to worry.  When the reporter asked why the confidence, Bivian replied with confidence.  “Because this game was played at night.  And, the regular season games will be played in the day.”

The 1975 season ended as a major disappointment at 2 wins and 12 losses.   The 1975 season was also the end of Bivian Lee’s professional career.

Oh, are you wondering what the moral of the story is?  Apparently you don’t have to be too bright of a light to play under the bright lights of the world renown Superdome.