Author: thependulumswings staff

Abby Roux Takes Down Vegas Part VIII

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Boom!  Abby lit up Vegas last week like fireworks on the 4th of July.  One bet (Indiana -2) pushed while the four others that had bones wagered went off like roman candles.  Her hunch bet popped yet again as well.  Last Saturday night the sky was quite bright.

For the season Abby’s bark is piercing.   Her won/loss bets are 17-15-1.  Her perfect week of 10 of 10 bones buried puts the important count at 47 of 83, or 57%.  The hunch bet stands at six fine wins v. only one loss.

Week 12 is here.  It’s a week that has several top teams playing out of conference creme puffs.  It’s a week that she has sniffed longingly and turned her nose up at most matchups.  The pickings are slim.  Madame Roux’s choices follow.

Syracuse +10 v. Notre Dame -Abby has been long on the Orangemen all year.  It’s paid.  She hopes that this is not one time too many going to the same well.  The game is in Yankee Stadium and the snow will be piled high by Saturday.  ND wins a thriller.  The Orangemen play well for 58 minutes.  One bone.

Wisconsin +4.5 at Purdue – Abby has been long all year on the Badgers.  It hasn’t paid.  She hopes that going to the well too often finally pays off.  Purdue is a good Big 10 team that somehow just got worked by Minnesota 41-10.  Maybe they have the ugly, week ago, Kentucky like letdown?  Three bones.

Stanford -2 at California – Yearly this is called The Big Game.  How original is that?  There isn’t anything too big about it this year.  Cardinal pride gets it done, though Cali is tough at home.  Two bones.

Michigan St. -1 at Nebraska -The Cornhuskers are scoring a lot and playing better of late.  The Spartans aren’t scoring a lot and aren’t playing better of late.   Did Abby ever tell you that she likes to zig when others zag?  Two bones.

Wake Forest+13 1/2 over Pittsburgh and Oklahoma St. plus 11 1/2 over West Virginia – Abby is buying 7 points for each home dog for a two team parlay that pays even bones.  Pittsburgh has the ACC championship game well within its sights and might be looking a tad ahead.  West Virginia has the Big 12 championship game well within its sights and might be looking a tad ahead.  Two bones.

On a hunch take under 46.5 points when Iowa St. squares off in Austin v. Texas.  The line seems way low.  It seems so low that we think Vegas is trying to get some of Abby’s bones back.  They’ll need to dig deeper.

No. 16 Iowa St. v no. 15 Texas aside, the marquee matchups this weekend are few and far between.  Take for example USC v UCLA, please.  USC and UCLA have 13 losses this season between them.  It is the most combined losses ever in this 88 years old rivalry.

Often overlooked UCF hosts College Gameday’s broadcast this week.  Looking at the available alternatives one can see why.

Woof!

 

 

 

Chad, Ima, and the Florida Swamp.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Do you remember Chad?  They say that everyone is famous for 15 minutes.  Chad was that and then some.  Hanging around for days, Chad was no dummy either.  He chose warm south Florida in mid November just eleven months after we celebrated the year 2000 and the 21st century replacing 1999 and the 20th century.  So just who was he?  Or better yet, what was he?

A “chad” is the fragment or fragments of paper left over when you punch a hole in a card.

In the 2000 United States presidential election, many Florida voters used Votomatic-style punched card ballots where incompletely punched holes resulted in partially punched chads: either a “hanging chad”, where one or more corners were still attached, or a “fat chad” or “pregnant chad”, where all corners were still attached, but an indentation appears to have been made. These votes were not counted by the tabulating machines. The aftermath of the controversy caused the rapid discontinuance of punch card ballots in the United States.

And what an aftermath it was.

On election night, no clear winner emerged. Print and broadcast media cited often contradictory exit-polling numbers, and the races in Oregon and New Mexico would remain too close to call for several days. Ultimately, the contest focused on the great state of Florida. Networks initially projected Gore the winner in Florida, but later they declared in favor of Bush. Gore called Bush to concede the election, but in the early hours of the following morning it became apparent that the Florida race was much closer than Gore’s staff thought.  Fewer than 600 votes separated the candidates, and that margin appeared to be narrowing.  About 3:00 AM Gore called a stunned Bush to retract his concession.

The aforementioned Bush would be one George W. Bush, then governor of Texas, and son of former President George Herbert Walker Bush.  Papa Bush was prez no. 41. The aforementioned Gore would be one Al Gore, then VP to impeached, but not removed, two term President William Jefferson Clinton. Clinton was prez no. 42. The winner of this undecided race would be prez no. 43.

That Gore won the popular vote wasn’t contested.  The final electoral college vote count, however, was left hanging by hanging chads.  The race in Florida was so tight that a miniscule difference of 537 votes sent the nation into a tizzy.  And, it sent Florida into a mandatory recount per state voting law.  As it stood prior to any recount, the red Republican Bush states amassed 271 electoral college votes to 266 for the blue Democrat Gore states.

Democrats embraced the recount.  But the Florida Secretary of State declared Bush the winner in mid recount.  Lawsuits, rulings, appeals, and reversals kept the finality of the outcome at bay for five weeks.  A few counties that still voted by using punch cards began their recount at the outset of the legal back and forth.  Was it a vote or was it the dreaded pregnant chad?

In the end the process(mess) reached the US Supreme Court.  By a five to four margin the highest court of all ruled that no timely resolution could be reached other than the original one.  This effectively made George Bush no. 43.  Chad’s fifteen minutes were up.

Indeed Chad’s fifteen minutes were up.  But meet Chad’s cousin, Ima Contest.  She surfaced last week for her fifteen minutes of fame.  She showed up in, of all places, warm south Florida in mid November.  Give that family three things-they know just where, when, and how to make an entrance onto the political main stage.

Incumbent Democrat Senator Bill Nelson and former Governor Republican Rick Scott engaged in an expensive and hotly contested mid-term race to represent Florida in the Senate.  The results are inside of 0.50% points difference.  It’s deja vu mandatory recount time.

Oh, and meanwhile in the governor’s race, unofficial results show Republican former Rep. Ron DeSantis leading Democratic Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum by 0.41 percentage points.  Gillum, identically to Gore(the inventor of the internet) called DeSantis and conceded.  But as Lee Corso (Floridian himself)has said a few times, “not so fast my friend.”  Then Gillum, identically to Gore (the world’s most respected authority on climate change) retracted his concession.  He wants to monitor the mandatory recount too.

Ima contests the two elections because, of all things, not all of the votes supposedly have been counted when they were supposed to be by law.  These include 266 absentee ballots that arrived Sunday at the Miami-Dade election office.  Sunday was a full five days after the law mandates all votes be counted by 7 pm on the night of the election.  But, laws be damned apparently as the incumbent Senator Nelson contends that not counting these votes will disenfranchise(remember when you had thankfully never heard of that word before?)  voters and has filed a suit accordingly.

Some recently displaced hurricane evacuees voted by email.  The county commish in that area admits that this isn’t within approved voter guidelines. Will those votes be allowed?  Palm Beach and Miami have now failed to get the recount done in a timely manner as well.  Lawsuits, allegations, claims of voter fraud, and more lawsuits from both sides have further muddied the murky waters.

How about a request for removal from office?  Even former Governor Jeb Bush had a few words for that swamp near The Everglades.  “There is no question that Broward County Supervisor of Elections Brenda Snipes failed to comply with Florida law on multiple counts, undermining Floridians’ confidence in our electoral process,” former Governor Jeb Bush said. “Supervisor Snipes should be removed from her office following the recounts.”

Of the 4,687 US statewide general elections held between 2000 to 2015, 27 were followed by a recount, and only three resulted in a change of outcome from the original count.  So, the odds are slim to none that anything becomes of any of this other than lawyers making bank.

Yet, recount deadlines have been missed and missed again.   Apparently the educational system in a few counties in the great state of Florida isn’t too good.  Some folks can’t count, while others can’t tell time.

Eighteen years ago, after five weeks of back and forth, it all wound up in the US Supreme Court.  This time we stand at a week plus and counting.  This mess of a messed up process might end up in the highest court as well.  If it comes to that, shouldn’t newly appointed Judge Kavanaugh cast the deciding vote?   That would read like a movie script, and Oscars for all.

Chad and Ima and Florida are unfortunately forever linked and riding on this Groundhog Day, post-election merry-go-round.  And around it goes.

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-CFB

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Week 11 has come and gone in college football.   Most teams have played ten games.  Most teams spent Saturday reaffirming their positions in walk overs as another regular season end draws nearer.  The latest AP Top 25 poll is out and it looks a lot like a week ago.

  1.  Alabama rightfully remains the unanimous no. 1.  The Tide rolled over Mississippi St 24-0.  That’s two straight shutouts of SEC West opponents.   The Bama D began the year with eight new starters on defense.  “Scary good” is a phrase that comes to mind.  The Citadel is up next.  Their enrollment, per their website, is 2,349 for 2018.  Ironically that is nearly the same amount assistant coaches, strength coaches, staff, tutors, and analysts that Nick Saban has on staff prepping Bama for ballgames.  We wish the best of luck to this fine military academy come Saturday.  Yawn.
  2. Spots 2,3, and 4 remain in the hands of Clemson, Notre Dame, and Michigan.  They overwhelmed Boston College, Florida St, and Rutgers respectively.  Clemson knocked out the Eagles QB and are playing complementary football.  ND heads to the Big Apple for a tussle with a motivated Syracuse team in Yankee Stadium.  Michigan hosts Indiana in the Big House.  Yawn.
  3. One loss teams Georgia, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Washington State, and THE Ohio St. are slotted 5-9 ready to stake their claim to a top four playoff spot should one get cracked open.
  4. Georgia is a more complete team than the other four.  Oklahoma survived a two point conversion attempt by Oklahoma St. with one minute to go to hold onto a 48-47 win.  The Sooners don’t play much defense.  They have surrendered 45 or more points in three of their last five contests.
  5. THE’s punter Drue Chrisman’s punts, in a tight defensive struggle, forced Michigan State to start its first five drives after halftime from its own 5, 6, 3, 1 and 2-yard line.  It wasn’t a work of art, but they emerged victoriously from that Big 10 snooze fest.   Yawn.
  6. Washington St. continues to roll.  Ranked 8th now, they have earned their way into the national discussion.  Their conference’s weakness, real or perceived, is doing them no favors however.
  7.  Just outside the top ten is a litany of interesting stories led by UCF at 11.  Speaking of no favors, they did none in surrendering 24 to Navy and winning by 11.  Syracuse is at 12 with two losses.  A win over ND in the Bronx would be a crowning achievement for a team that usually looks to Jim Boeheim by this time of the year for sports entertainment.  Texas survived Lubbock and is at 13 with three losses.  At 14 is a 9-1 Utah State team that no one knows a thing about.  They lead the Mountain West Conference and call themselves the Aggies.  Who knew that there two Aggie teams in these United States?
  8.  Kentucky woke up late in Knoxville, gave up an almost uncontested Hail Mary pass at halftime, trailed 17-0 at intermission, and lost to the Tennessee Volunteers 24-7.  The last minute win at Missouri, then the hangover from the Georgia loss has the Wildcats running on fumes.  That lethargy was on display for 60 full minutes Saturday.  Meanwhile, after a wobbly start, Jeremy Pruitt has the Vols playing hard.  Kentucky plummeted to 20th with loss number 3.
  9.  In the AP top 25 there is no such thing as being ranked no 26.  But, in the usually dreaded “others receiving votes” section Army gets the most votes and is this week’s best of the “others.”   What a job Jeff Monken has done in five years there.  They won ten last year and have a shot at that again in 2018.  The last time that Army won 10 games was 1996.
  10.  Some early lines are out for this week and if you like big dogs or big favorites this is your week.  We’ll spare you those for now and focus on Syracuse +9.5 v. ND, and Mich St. is -1.5 at Nebraska,  while WVA travels to Okla St as a 5 point pick, and Oregon -4 hosts Arizona St.  Can the Orangemen box with the Fighting Irish?  How is Nebraska only a small dog sporting a 3-7 record?  Can WVA win another Big 12 road game in a tough environment?  After a 3 point win over downtrodden UCLA, Herm Edwards announced that the six win Sun Devils are now bowl eligible.  Hmm.  Can they make it seven in Eugene?

The Targeting Punishment Misses the Target!

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Targeting, as you know, is a rules infraction in college football that has gained a lot of attention this season.  It actually became its own rule 10 years ago.  However, the ejection of the offending player was added in 2013.  It’s intent is worthy.  It’s intent simply is to reduce head injuries.  Who could be opposed to that?  No one.

However, for a few weeks now we’ve been vigorously debating what exactly defines targeting and the subsequent punishment.  Our disdain for its gross inconsistency reached 212 degrees when Devin White got the heave-ho with five minutes remaining before he and his LSU Tiger brethren could celebrate a 19-3 homecoming victory over Mississippi State a few weeks back.

We definitely advise that if you haven’t, you read the excellent SBNation article that explains the crime quite well.  In fact, it does it so well that we will only further their thoughts by diving a bit deeper with our comments on the inconsistencies of the punishment.  We believe that the only thing worse in how the rule is written and called is how the penalty is assessed.

Targeting is a 15 yard penalty in college football and an automatic first down.  It’s identical to a personal foul penalty in its punishment in that sense.  However,  it also is subject to immediate review.  If the infraction called on the field is upheld, the player guilty of the targeting is ejected for the remainder of the game if the play took place in the first half of the game.  If the act occurs in the second half of the game, the player also is forced to miss the first half of the next game his team plays.  Below are some very plausible examples of how grossly inconsistent that doled out sentence can be.

  1. If you are ejected for targeting in the first half of a game, you might be out a total of 59 minutes if you illegally contact your opponent in the first minute of the game.  If you hit him with a minute to go in the half, you miss a total of 31 minutes.
  2. If you are ejected for targeting in the second half of a game, you might be out 29 minutes of the remainder of that game and the first 30 of the next for a total of 59 minutes.  If you hit him with a minute to go in the game you miss only 31 total minutes inclusive of the first half of the next game.
  3.  If you apply opposition team strength to point one above you could miss 59 minutes down to 31 minutes against a weaker or stronger opponent than you might face the next week.
  4.  But if the next game’s opponent was much stronger than the game you were tossed from you don’t miss any of it if you are guilty in the first half against a weaker opponent.  Yet, you miss 30 minutes of it if you are guilty in the second half.

The above four scenarios might be a bit confusing.  But suffice it to say when you get thrown out, who you are facing when you get thrown out, and who you will face next week all factor into how severe the loss of playing time is to you and your teammates.  One might say that referees are blind to who is playing now and who is playing next week.  That likely is correct which makes the inequity all the more real.

The targeting rule and it’s penalties(yards, auto first down, and ejection)are the most severe on the college rule books today.  Yet, if you pass interfere on defense 50 yards down the field, unlike the spot foul in the NFL, you only are penalized 10 yards and an auto first down.  This seems like the exact opposite of the harshness of the targeting infraction, though we recognize they differ from a safety point of view.  But, where is the middle ground?

What about a 20 yard penalty(that would be a first) for targeting and an automatic first down.  Any other personal foul by the same player of any sort results in a suspension of the next 60 consecutive minutes of football from that moment.  It’s but one suggestion.

The NCAA rules committee needs to take a long look this offseason.

We may not have the answers, but we do have the questions.

 

 

Abby Roux Takes Down Vegas Part VII

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby has spent the last five days licking her wounds from last Saturday.  She also has barked incessantly about two half point bad beats that could have flipped the juice in her favor and sent her to the pay window.  But, bottom line, as Jim Mora once infamously ranted, “we couldn’t do diddly poo!”

Abby’s 3-5 win/loss week took her down to 13-15 against the spread this season.  In the more important bones wagered she has still buried more than she has given, 37 of 73.  And, she recommends that you start paying close attention to her hunch bets.  Vegas is.  Her hunch bet is now a gaudy 5 up and 1 down.

Out of the dog house and into the moola she goes.  This week’s wagers are just below.

Indiana -2 v Maryland -The dumpster fire that is Terrapin football and the entire AD office takes flight to the heartland for an early kickoff.  Anywhere is better for them than College Park, MD.  Indiana at home is better than Indiana on the road.  Two bones.

UCLA +13.5 at Arizona St. -Have the Sun Devils played well enough to be favored by two touchdowns against any PAC 12 team?  The convincing win over Utah was quite nice, but……. Meanwhile, UCLA has lost two in a row while Ariz St. has won two in a row.  Abby loves the spot.  Two weeks ago, in the conference turned upside down, all dogs won straight up on Saturday.  Abby expects more left coast madness.   The Sun Devils should certainly win, but……….  Three bones.

Tennessee +5.5 v Kentucky -Abby loves home dogs.   Abby really loves home dogs playing a team that got pummeled by a Ga Bulldog a week ago.

Smokey loves the checkerboard endzone.

Does Kentucky get up off of the floor and play for 60 minutes?  Or, did last week take the fight out of the Wildcats?  Abby likes the team with the blue tick hound in this one.   Three bones.

Ohio State -3.5 @ Michigan St -THE Ohio State U. is looking for a place to lie down it seems.  However, THE has only one loss and is much maligned for their season to date performance.  Expect this to be back and forth for 50 minutes but THE covers late.  They are going to lose to a team from Michigan soon, but Abby thinks it’s not this week.  Two bones.

Two SEC teams are big 13.5 point underdogs this week.  The Auburn Tigers(+13.5) travel to Georgia while Arkansas(+13.5) host the bruised Tigers of LSU.  Abby is buying seven points for Georgia to get the line down to -6.5.  She is putting them in a two team tease with Arkansas bought up to +20.5   It’s essentially a parlay of sorts that pays even money.  Combine Georgia -6.5 with Arkansas +20.5.   Two bones.

Ole Miss and their high-powered pass offense whistle stops in College Station.  On a hunch Abby is barking about under 66 and 1/2.  She likes to zig when others zag you know.   There must be something about A&M’s Reveille and whistles that makes this game an itch that Abby must scratch.

The college football regular season is growing short.  Enjoy the games.

Woof!

 

 

 

 

 

Why Did We Stop Now?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff
  • And, for some reason, all is now quiet on the “must take down offensive monuments front.”  So, now that many “offensive” Civil War memorials have been taken down in several of our “united” states ,we ponder, ‘is society any better because of it?’  Did the ones we took down make our country a better place?  Do all of the ones that remain up make our country a worse place?  Why did we put them up in the first place?  Why did we take some of them down?  Where is the outcry to take the rest down?

How many remain?  Ah, take a look.  The research done for that recent AL.com article shows 30 of the 50 United States still have one or more tributes, monuments, or statues depicting a Confederate memorial of some sort.  The list is led by Virginia where 242 still stand upright.  242!  In all there are approximately 1728 spread across the aforementioned 30 states.  1728!

The vast majority stand south of the famous Mason-Dixon line.  But not all of them do.  One or more adorn public land in Iowa, Maryland, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, and shocker of shockers, Washington D.C.   But, but, how can that be?  Seems like we agree to disagree?

Apparently, we couldn’t even agree in the mid 1700’s where Pennsylvania and Maryland began and ended.  It’s how we first came to know Mr. Mason and Mr. Dixon.  A World Atlas excerpt follows.

The Mason-Dixon Line became widely known as the symbolic divider between the Northern and Southern states during America’s Civil War; in short, it divided slave states from non-slave states.

However, the original Mason–Dixon Line was actually a demarcation (or border) line between Pennsylvania and Maryland, in an effort to settle an 80-year land dispute between the two colonies. It also included the western border of present-day Delaware, as it was then a part of the Pennsylvania colony.

The ongoing dispute between the Penn family of Pennsylvania, and the Calvert family of Maryland over the border between the two colonies finally erupted into war in 1730, one known as Cresap’s War. After years of conflict, England’s King George II negotiated a cease-fire in 1738.

Shortly thereafter, the Penns and Calverts commissioned two Englishman, Charles Mason and Jeremiah Dixon, to mark the official border, and solve their property dispute.

Mason (an astronomer) and Dixon (a surveyor) used celestial measurements to form an accurate 233-mile-long line (or boundary) between Pennsylvania and Maryland, and the 83 mile-long between Maryland and Delaware.  The project took nearly 5 years.

After we solved where Maryland ended and Pennsylvania began, the Mason-Dixon line was extended, as mentioned above, to mark the south (slave states) from the north(non slave states).  So, after the war and over time, well over 2000 memorials were erected to honor the bravery, leadership, or passion of those who fought (and/or died) for the Confederacy. Even more were erected nationwide to honor the Union side of the very deadly combat.  The Confederate ones were placed in at least 30 states. There were only 36 states ratified into our United States by the end of the war in 1865.

Can’t you imagine the dedication ceremonies back then?  They likely looked and sounded just like the ones we have now.  The Star Spangled Banner was played by the local high school band.  Politicians stood up and thanked all for coming.  They droned on about how important this moment was to memorialize those who came and died before us.  A prayer was said for those who perished for what they thought was a good cause.  People dutifully bowed their heads.  The statue was unveiled.  People clapped.  Then, everyone ate a ham sandwich and drank a cup of punch.  Work beckoned.

One hundred and fifty years later we decided that these monuments were actually a terrible reflection on our society even though 30 of 36 states erected them and celebrated them for what they were-symbols of what tore us apart and eventually made us stronger, one union, one United States of America.

And, what about those Union memorials.   There are many thousands and they adorn every corner of this country.  Should they be taken down?  They honor Americans who displayed the same passion, leadership and bravery.  They stood for what they believed to be the right thing.   They fought and killed many thousands of US citizens who opposed the abolition of slavery.  Slavery, mind you, was but one of a few other disagreements that never are mentioned nor discussed.  The Union memorials were erected and celebrated for what they are-symbols of what tore us apart and eventually made us stronger, one union, one United States of America.  Sound familiar?

U.S. women were granted the right to vote in 1919.  The right was ratified as the 19th Amendment to the Constitution in 1920.  Just four years prior, in 1915, the US House of Representatives voted against the right to vote.  Should any memorial for any US citizen or US government leader who opposed this cause be torn down?  Or, maybe this discrimination doesn’t rise to the tear down level?  There were even women back then who opposed having the right to vote!

In recent years incivility and unrest over jury verdicts or police actions has led to serious street violence and crime.  A few have reached a level of violence where citizens have thrown rocks, or worse shot at and killed law officers they feel break the law, not uphold it.  Should we have statues erected for the citizens cause?  Should we have statues erected for the police cause?  Both?  Probably neither.   But if we did, my guess is that in 150 years or less one side of the cause will have had their statues removed.  Times change.  Opinions change.

Heck, Mason and Dixon probably disagreed with one another.  Can’t we all just get along?  Obviously not.  Or, better yet, can’t we all realize that what tears us apart can make us stronger if we are willing to recognize it, debate it, and learn from it?

History cannot be changed.  History cannot be erased.  History can teach.  It’s time to learn.

 

 

 

 

It’s Better to Take and Not Give!

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Analytics are woven into the makeup and strategy of major team sports today much more than ever before.  It roots are in baseball way back when and it was designed to give the fledgling hobby of fantasy baseball a more cerebral look at who you were drafting and why.  It was called sabermetrics originally.  The term is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research, founded in 1971. The term sabermetrics was coined by Bill James, who is one of its pioneers and is often considered its most prominent advocate and public face.

From that seed of a start has grown a forest of stats, now called “analytics,”  covering baseball, football, basketball, hockey, as well as several other sports.   Ivy League savants are employed in many sports franchise front offices coast to coast and even across the pond where they play futbol, not football.

The bbr staff was working well into the evening last week and discussing these new metrics and their merits as well as their shortcomings.   In the background on our fat Samsung was a meaningless Tuesday night NCAA football game.  Buffalo and Miami, OH were trading touchdowns at a rapid pace.  The Bulls outlasted the Redhawks 52-41.  Bonus points to you if you know which team goes with which nickname.

One of the many team stats shown along the way was turnovers.  When shown the announcer referred to them as takeaways.  This prompted some research and debate among us.  Our research turned to the NFL.  Fansided.com. published an article that shows results from 2010-2014 that, while a bit dated, shows irrefutable evidence as to how critical winning the turnover battle really is.  An excerpted paragraph follows.

During that five-year span teams that finished in the top ten in turnover differential finished 521-278-1. That’s a winning percentage of 65.2 percent and equates to about 10.4 wins per season. On the other end of the spectrum, the teams that finished in the bottom ten in turnover differential finished 287-512-1. That’s a winning percentage of about 35.9 percent and equates to about 5.7 wins per season.

And just below from Boydsbets.com you can see what happens per game when you win the turnover battle by 1 through 4 or more turnovers covering all games since 2005.   It shows both straight up(SU) winning and how the stat affects betting against the spread (ATS).

TO Differential SU SU % ATS ATS %
+1 823-376-4 68.6% 801-366-36 68.6%
+2 655-142 82.2% 632-149-16 80.9%
+3 344-33-1 91.2% 330-41-7 88.9%
+4 or more 272-8 97.1% 266-13-1 95.3%
TOTAL (+1 or better) 2094-559-5 78.9% 2029-569-60 78.1%

Suffice it to say that if you hold onto the ball a bit better than your opponent you win.  If you hold on to it significantly better you almost always win.

But, we wonder.  We wonder in this day of advanced analytics if there is a deeper dive still to be taken.  Remember the announcer called a turnover a takeaway as if they were one.  We wonder if there really are two measurements that better depict how you got the ball from your opponent.

Aren’t there turnovers and takeaways?  A turnover could be defined as the offense inflicting damage upon itself.  If for example the QB overthrew, without pressure, a receiver by 5 yards into the waiting arms of the deep safety isn’t that more giving than taking?  If a running back is running free and clear and coughs it up on his own isn’t that more giving than taking?  What if you were DeSean Jackson?  He made a habit of giving not taking.

Conversely, aggressive and smart defenses create turnovers, or as we prefer, takeaways.  If you blind side the QB and he loses control prior to throwing it, it’s a takeaway.  If a cornerback  jumps an out route its taken, not given.

We readily admit that there is grey area in between the clear examples above.  However, there are grey areas in many judgement calls in sports.  An umpire uses his eyes about 250 times a game to decide in his judgement if a thrown baseball is a ball or a strike.   Surely we can split hairs on whether the D taketh or the O giveth.

How you lose possession speaks to how you protect the ball and how the D wants the ball.  We think bad teams give it away and good teams take it away.  We think that great teams don’t give it away on O, but take it away on D.  From the results shown above the most important stat battle that you must win to win a game is turnover differential.

Should there be two stats?  We think so.  Turnovers and takeaways aren’t the same.

In the NFL it’s a don’t give and do take world.

 

Boom Boom’s Life Lessons #6

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

One of the many gifts that Boom Boom gave us was the torrent of quips about how one leads one’s life.   He could say so much by saying so little.   A statement at just the right moment resonated in my young, eager eardrums.  How I interpreted or applied it was up to me.  No more words were spoken because no more words were needed.

My intent is to simply drop them here from time to time for reflection in your life.  Perhaps you can benefit as I have.  Whether all of the quotes were originally his(the vast majority are), or if he was himself inspired by a few along the way isn’t relevant.  The message is.

As my senior year in high school began I quickly realized that, regular classwork included, I had taken on a good bit of extracurricular work.  I edited the school paper.  Every six weeks we went to press.  I was fortunate to be prez of our senior class as well.  I had other interests too.  Sometimes all of the responsibilities seemed to wash ashore at the same time.

One evening I whined a bit about what I perceived as too much going on.  Boom Boom heard that complaint of mine one too many times.  “If I want something done at work I give it to a busy person, son.”  I walked across the hall.  “That’s correct,” he said as he worked the adding machine like the proverbial plow horse.  I looked perplexed I am sure.  This didn’t sound logical.  But, as I later learned, it is.

How often have you heard someone talk about how busy they are?  My observation in the workplace is that productive people rarely complained about how much was on their plate.  Busy people get things done.  People who always tell you how busy they are aren’t really that productive.   A big key to productivity is focusing on what is important now and prioritizing tasks each day.

Are you busy?  Everyone is.  Your work, your family, your friends, your sleep, your eating, and your exercising aren’t any different from any other’s need to achieve life/work balance.  There are only 24 hours in everyone’s day every day.  Make the most of them.  Might I suggest more work and less talk about it?   You will quickly feel a rewarding sense of accomplishment.

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-CFB

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Week 10, which ESPN called “Separation Saturday,” is complete.  We looked at it as the last chance to withdraw from a course however.  Some did while others passed with flying colors.  Below is a complete report card of the tests administered to date.  We grade them one nugget at a time.

  1.  Surely in Baton Rouge, under the lights, against a stingy Dave Aranda led LSU defense would provide Alabama their toughest test thus far this season.  Well, Alabama separated themselves from what some billed as their toughest competition to date with ease.  Tua Heisman passed and Bama ran with flying colors.  We think Alabama actually had the LSU run game playbook advanced to them for study.  The Tide gets an A+ by surgically removing LSU from the game possession by possession.  Bama is bigger, stronger, faster, and better coached than all.  Bama is a unanimous no. 1 in the AP Top 25 released yesterday.
  2.  Clemson felt like it was getting ignored in this teacher’s pet conversation over these last few weeks.  No more.  They put a very salty 77 points on now lowly Louisville.  That’s 63,41,59, and now 77 against ACC foes in the last four weeks.  Trevor Lawrence makes one remember Deshaun Watson’s work in the orange uni’s. Give the Tigers an A and a clear no 2 ranking.
  3. Notre Dame and Michigan are nos. 3 and 4 respectively.  Their week one encounter, won by ND, is all that separates these two.  ND beat Northwestern by 10 and gets an A for their 9-0 results thus far, but a B for style points.  Michigan meanwhile is charging ahead.  Their D (not grade) is the best in college football except for the one from Tuscaloosa.  Taking apart a talented Penn St. team 42-7 in the Big House earns the Wolverines an A in the class so far.  They have THE has a final regular season exam looming in Columbus on 11/24.
  4. Georgia went to Kentucky and excelled for four quarters.  The 34-17 win in the Bluegrass State was impressive as the Kentucky defense was unyielding all season till Saturday.  The Bulldogs ran and ran and ran.  Georgia will win the East and earns a B to date and a no. 5 AP rank.
  5. Joining Georgia in the top 10 with one loss is Oklahoma, West Virginia, THE, and Washington St. (LSU is no 9 with two losses).  Each of these students excel in one area but lack discipline in another.  Oklahoma gets an A for O and a D for D.  West Virginia wants to earn an invite to the honors section, but gets a C for D.  THE almost looks like they want to withdraw from school.  All isn’t right in Columbus.  We suspect Professor Urban Meyer is struggling getting through to his students.  The aforementioned Michigan final exam will be tough.  Washington St. wants a pat on the head for work well done to date, but we think their course load(schedule) has a few too many blow off classes(teams).  They haven’t played a ranked team.  And, their 19-13 win over the Nuts from Berkeley puts a few red correction marks on their term paper.
  6. Syracuse rose nine places in the rankings to 13th.  The Orangemen slept in just a bit for their Wake Forest test.   But, once they settled into the exam they scored early, often, and well.  With two losses they have no path to any final four contests, but we wonder if this student is blossoming right before our eyes.  Next year perhaps?  Give them a B for now.
  7.  The Texas Longhorns have three losses and are somehow ranked 15th.  Their head coach, one Tom Herman, is proving to be the clASS clown.  Tom should spend more time coaching a defense that doesn’t slow down good teams and less time whining about things he cannot control.  Several teams ranked below them would be and should be favored over them in Vegas.  Give the team a C+ so far and Tommy Boy a D- in conduct.
  8.  Washington has three losses and a #20 rank.  They are disappointed in themselves.  Wisconsin is another national brand that has underachieved and is relegated to the “others receiving votes” section of the class.  Florida St., at 4-5, has no wins over anyone worth mentioning and is in year two of a cliff dive from prominence.
  9. But the dunce’s cap goes to the man who needed a neck brace a few years ago.  The cap fits squarely on the head of the man in charge of the once high-flying Louisville.   We wonder if Bobby Petrino will get to answer the roll call next year?  Louisville is 2-7 overall, and 0-6 in the ACC.  If you are a Louisville fan the stench emanating from Pitino and Petrino over the last 12 months must make your nostrils burn.  Give Motorcycle Bob an F- if there is such a grade.
  10. Some early lines are out.  Bama is minus a whopping 25.5 hosting Mississippi St.  Vegas cannot get the lines high enough on Bama.  Clemson travels to Boston College as a big 17 point favorite.  Tennessee is a live home dog +3.5 entertaining Kentucky.  Washington St travels to the four losses in a row Colorado Buffaloes as a 4.5 point fav.  And Wisconsin is an 8 point road dog in Happy Valley v Penn St.  One of those two teams will fall further in the loss column than expected before the year began.

Till Saturday.

Abby Roux Takes Down Vegas Part VI.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Last weekend’s games didn’t pan out too well for Abby.  It wasn’t a complete washout like the top 25 teams that played did.  More teams (11) ranked in the top 25 lost last week than any other since 1989, and four of them were idle.  Abby wagered a meager 10 bones wary of the pre Halloween money goblins.  She was able to bury only three of them.  Her hunch bet paid again though.

Her season to date performance is 10 up and 10 down in the won/loss column, 31 of 57 bones in the more important money column, and a gaudy 4-1 on hunches.  Week ten is here and as the calendar turns to November the CFB stakes are high.  Abby’s research has her barking confidently about a few games below.

 Tony the Landshark.  Go figure.

South Carolina even at Mississippi -Ole Miss isn’t playing for anything as their past recruiting indiscretions leaves them bowl ineligible.  South Carolina is trying to get to six wins eventually to become bowl eligible.  Meanwhile, Ole Miss is trying to decide on a mascot.  Tony the Landshark supplanted Rebel the Black Bear this year which had supplanted Colonel Reb who retired in 2003.  Abby expects the Gamecocks to make just enough defensive stops.  Two bones.

Iowa +3 at Purdue -The Boilermakers have had a great run.  They crowning achievement was the beat down of THE.  However, drinking too many Boilermakers post game left them hung over for Michigan St. and it showed.  Abby expects a 60 minute dogfight. But in the end she thinks Iowa is the slightly better team.  Two bones.

Arizona -3 v Colorado – Three weeks ago Colorado was undefeated.   After Saturday night Abby thinks they’ll head back to the mountains panting at 5-4.   Arizona isn’t that good of a team, and Abby wonders if Kevin Sumlin is much of a head coach.  But we suspect the offense is ready to roll.  One bone.

Penn St +10.5 at Michigan -The Wolverines are a very good team with a borderline great D.   It’s in The Big House too.  Abby wonders if Vegas is over playing this resurgence a bit.  The line seems a bit high.  Abby likes treats. One Bone.

Texas -2 v West Virginia -The Longhorns found out that being ranked sixth and actually performing like the sixth best team in the country have nothing in common.  Okie St. dropped 60 minutes of reality on them.  We think that they might be smarting from spending the week reading about how go they are (were).  WVa is much better at home than on the road.  Two bones.

Northwestern +9.5 v Notre Dame -Northwestern has won 12 of their last 13 BIG 10 contests.  Impressive.  Yet in week three they lost to Akron.  Jeez.   They won’t win this one, but Abby likes the points to cover.  Two bones.

Florida -6 v Missouri – Missouri forgot to play the fourth quarter v Kentucky last week, losing 15-14 after leading 14-3 in Columbia entering the fourth quarter.  They travel to Gainesville to face a Florida team that Georgia smacked around. Abby thinks that an angry Gator that bares his teeth is nothing to sniff at.   It might get ugly.  Chomp. Chomp.  Three bones.

Georgia -8.5 at Kentucky – This line started at minus 12 and has been bet down three and a half points in four days.   Abby likes to zig when others zag.  Kentucky has played well all year and rallied hard at the wire to beat Mizzou as detailed above.  The Wildcat’s D is legit having surrendered only 10.5 points on average in six SEC slugfests.  This game likely determines the East in the SEC.  Georgia just has too much firepower and covers in the fourth quarter. Three bones.

On a hunch take under 54 in Baton Rouge.  LSU v Bama has been a defensive fist fight for the last several years.  Since 2001 they have combined to go over 54 just twice.   Tua Heisman might change that, but if LSU is going to stay close they won’t do it by outscoring Bama.

There you are.  Abby puts a season high 16 bones on the table spread over eight games.  Being the unbiased, impartial, doggone good journalist that she is, she won’t end this post by howling GEAUX TIGERS!

Woof!