Year one for Abby’s weekly column is now in the dog house till fall. However, she will certainly show her head for a bowl game or two along the way when something gets her attention.
College football picking isn’t easy. The smart money in Vegas (called the Sharps) focuses on a narrow window of analytics and doesn’t stray (Abby doesn’t like strays either). If the betting line doesn’t meet their tight standards window they punt.
Abby takes a broader view when making her choices. This can be more difficult. That’s why it’s important for her to risk various amounts (bones) to weight average the risk.
For her inaugural journey she won 22 bets, lost 23, and tied one against the Vegas lines. Importantly, she won 59 of 108 bones wagered. That is a win percentage of 55%. Each bone is $11 to win $10. Thus, she finished plus $51 dollars on the year. It’s won’t shut down The Strip, but it will afford a better grade of dog food than Kibbles & Bits.
Perhaps her hunch bets should have been part of the bones wagered. The hunch bet finished year one with nine great wins versus only one loss. I have a hunch that she won’t be able to repeat that best of show performance next year.
She is wishing some of her favorite mascots a happy holiday and a win in their bowl games. Abby hopes that you enjoy the early bowl games too.
College football’s conference championship week is upon us. Rivalry week has come and gone. It was a good one. And it was a long one. It was acutely long if you tuned into the 4 hour and 53 minute and 7 overtime Texas A&M victory over LSU. That marathon was won by the slimmest of margins. It also turned a promising start by Abby into the slimmest margin of defeat. A very slim 1/2 point stood between her pawing out a win vs. taking a loss in that game and the week.
She heads into this weekend with a 20-21-1 won/loss record. She remains on the high side having buried 54 of an even 100 bones. The hunch bet stands at eight strong wins v. only one loss! Championship week has several big dog v. big chalk games. Abby normally likes big dogs but some look like runts of the litter to her. Careful.
Washington -5 v. Utah – Washington won this matchup in week four 21-7. After a mid-season slide it seems like the Huskies might be peeking and playing up to their preseason expectations. Utah has nine wins this year but none against ranked teams. Plus Abby likes Huskies. Two bones.
Oklahoma -8 v. Texas- Texas won this matchup in a week six thriller 48-45. Oklahoma has a playoff berth on the line. Abby thinks Oklahoma wins and somehow gets a stop or two with their porous D and covers by just a few. Three bones.
Alabama -13.5 v Georgia- Bama has beaten everyone senseless by 20 or more this year. Why would this game be any different? Well, Georgia is basically at home. But, Bama will travel big. Georgia has the athletes to stay in it. Regardless, Bama wins and covers by a few in their toughest test this year. One bone.
Under 61.5 Michigan Ohio St v Northwestern.- Ohio St. put their foot on the gas and mud stomped Michigan. Abby likes THE to win this one easily as well. But Northwestern plays decent D. If Oklahoma wins convincingly over Texas maybe OSU loses a bit of interest. Two bones.
On a hunch Abby likes under 77.5 in the Big 12 Oklahoma v Texas showdown. The first game totaled 93. The line seems like it’s begging you to take the over. Abby, as you know, thinks begging is unbecoming of pure breds.
Thanksgiving has come and is nearly gone. That means Rivalry Week is upon us. It starts Turkey Day night with the Egg Bowl. Abby has no egg on her jowls however. A difficult week to wager nicked her just a bit. Her won/loss record is dead even at 18-18-1. We give thanks that her bones wagered is gravy at 55%, with 50 of 91 buried. The hunch bet is no leftover cranberry either. That record is a strong 7 up and only 1 down.
Rivalry Week can be tricky. Who is motivated? Who has mailed it in? Whose coach is mashed potatoes? Abby is ready for her just desserts. The picks follow.
Under 61.5 Miss St. at Ole Miss- The Egg Bowl might put you to sleep even if the trytophan doesn’t. Miss State’s D is legit. Abby thinks the front four is only behind Bama, Michigan, and Clemson. Ole Miss has a legit O. But D beats O like rock beats scissors. Abby think this one ends under 50 total points. Two bones.
UCF -14 at USF- South Florida is reeling, losers of four in a row. This Interstate rivalry is separated by only about 80 miles of I-4. But, the teams are much further apart than that on the field.. Abby expects UCF to put their foot on the gas and not let off. Two bones.
Florida St +6.5 v Florida – An outright win makes Florida State bowl eligible for the 30th year in a row. A loss ushers in their promising basketball team’s season. Willie Taggert and Dan Mullen’s first year as head coaches at the two programs have had some ups and downs. Both are looking up at UCF in the state for now. The Gators win and the Seminoles cover. One bone.
Under 56.5 Michigan at THE OSU- The legend that Urban is might, Might, MIGHT be winding down at THE. Ohio St. has a leaky defense. Michigan has a shut down defense. Because the game is at THE Horseshoe we think OSU gets a few stops and the game only gets into the low twenties. A playoff spot for the bespeckled Jim Harbaugh essentially hangs in the 60 minute balance. Three bones.
Texas A&M -2.5 v LSU- Abby knows that A&M is 0-7 in the SEC v LSU. Abby knows that A&M can play run D and has a qb that can run. That’s two big legs up when facing LSU. A field goal separates the winner this time. A&M is healthier and has circled this game on it’s schedule since, well, last Thanksgiving weekend. One bone.
On a hunch take Washington and Washington St. under 48.5 total points. Like last week’s Iowa St. v Texas low o/u line, we think Vegas is begging you to take the over. Abby thinks begging is an unbecoming trait for pure breds.
There you have it. Three unders, two favorites, and one dog are the picks.
Warm pecan pie and a scoop of Blue Bell Vanilla Bean ice cream sounds mighty fine just about right now.
Boom! Abby lit up Vegas last week like fireworks on the 4th of July. One bet (Indiana -2) pushed while the four others that had bones wagered went off like roman candles. Her hunch bet popped yet again as well. Last Saturday night the sky was quite bright.
For the season Abby’s bark is piercing. Her won/loss bets are 17-15-1. Her perfect week of 10 of 10 bones buried puts the important count at 47 of 83, or 57%. The hunch bet stands at six fine wins v. only one loss.
Week 12 is here. It’s a week that has several top teams playing out of conference creme puffs. It’s a week that she has sniffed longingly and turned her nose up at most matchups. The pickings are slim. Madame Roux’s choices follow.
Syracuse +10 v. Notre Dame -Abby has been long on the Orangemen all year. It’s paid. She hopes that this is not one time too many going to the same well. The game is in Yankee Stadium and the snow will be piled high by Saturday. ND wins a thriller. The Orangemen play well for 58 minutes. One bone.
Wisconsin +4.5 at Purdue – Abby has been long all year on the Badgers. It hasn’t paid. She hopes that going to the well too often finally pays off. Purdue is a good Big 10 team that somehow just got worked by Minnesota 41-10. Maybe they have the ugly, week ago, Kentucky like letdown? Three bones.
Stanford -2 at California – Yearly this is called The Big Game. How original is that? There isn’t anything too big about it this year. Cardinal pride gets it done, though Cali is tough at home. Two bones.
Michigan St. -1 at Nebraska -The Cornhuskers are scoring a lot and playing better of late. The Spartans aren’t scoring a lot and aren’t playing better of late. Did Abby ever tell you that she likes to zig when others zag? Two bones.
Wake Forest+13 1/2 over Pittsburgh and Oklahoma St. plus 11 1/2 over West Virginia – Abby is buying 7 points for each home dog for a two team parlay that pays even bones. Pittsburgh has the ACC championship game well within its sights and might be looking a tad ahead. West Virginia has the Big 12 championship game well within its sights and might be looking a tad ahead. Two bones.
On a hunch take under 46.5 points when Iowa St. squares off in Austin v. Texas. The line seems way low. It seems so low that we think Vegas is trying to get some of Abby’s bones back. They’ll need to dig deeper.
No. 16 Iowa St. v no. 15 Texas aside, the marquee matchups this weekend are few and far between. Take for example USC v UCLA, please. USC and UCLA have 13 losses this season between them. It is the most combined losses ever in this 88 years old rivalry.
Often overlooked UCF hosts College Gameday’s broadcast this week. Looking at the available alternatives one can see why.
Abby has spent the last five days licking her wounds from last Saturday. She also has barked incessantly about two half point bad beats that could have flipped the juice in her favor and sent her to the pay window. But, bottom line, as Jim Mora once infamously ranted, “we couldn’t do diddly poo!”
Abby’s 3-5 win/loss week took her down to 13-15 against the spread this season. In the more important bones wagered she has still buried more than she has given, 37 of 73. And, she recommends that you start paying close attention to her hunch bets. Vegas is. Her hunch bet is now a gaudy 5 up and 1 down.
Out of the dog house and into the moola she goes. This week’s wagers are just below.
Indiana -2 v Maryland -The dumpster fire that is Terrapin football and the entire AD office takes flight to the heartland for an early kickoff. Anywhere is better for them than College Park, MD. Indiana at home is better than Indiana on the road. Two bones.
UCLA +13.5 at Arizona St. -Have the Sun Devils played well enough to be favored by two touchdowns against any PAC 12 team? The convincing win over Utah was quite nice, but……. Meanwhile, UCLA has lost two in a row while Ariz St. has won two in a row. Abby loves the spot. Two weeks ago, in the conference turned upside down, all dogs won straight up on Saturday. Abby expects more left coast madness. The Sun Devils should certainly win, but………. Three bones.
Tennessee +5.5 v Kentucky -Abby loves home dogs. Abby really loves home dogs playing a team that got pummeled by a Ga Bulldog a week ago.
Does Kentucky get up off of the floor and play for 60 minutes? Or, did last week take the fight out of the Wildcats? Abby likes the team with the blue tick hound in this one. Three bones.
Ohio State -3.5 @ Michigan St -THE Ohio State U. is looking for a place to lie down it seems. However, THE has only one loss and is much maligned for their season to date performance. Expect this to be back and forth for 50 minutes but THE covers late. They are going to lose to a team from Michigan soon, but Abby thinks it’s not this week. Two bones.
Two SEC teams are big 13.5 point underdogs this week. The Auburn Tigers(+13.5) travel to Georgia while Arkansas(+13.5) host the bruised Tigers of LSU. Abby is buying seven points for Georgia to get the line down to -6.5. She is putting them in a two team tease with Arkansas bought up to +20.5 It’s essentially a parlay of sorts that pays even money. Combine Georgia -6.5 with Arkansas +20.5. Two bones.
Ole Miss and their high-powered pass offense whistle stops in College Station. On a hunch Abby is barking about under 66 and 1/2. She likes to zig when others zag you know. There must be something about A&M’s Reveille and whistles that makes this game an itch that Abby must scratch.
The college football regular season is growing short. Enjoy the games.
Last weekend’s games didn’t pan out too well for Abby. It wasn’t a complete washout like the top 25 teams that played did. More teams (11) ranked in the top 25 lost last week than any other since 1989, and four of them were idle. Abby wagered a meager 10 bones wary of the pre Halloween money goblins. She was able to bury only three of them. Her hunch bet paid again though.
Her season to date performance is 10 up and 10 down in the won/loss column, 31 of 57 bones in the more important money column, and a gaudy 4-1 on hunches. Week ten is here and as the calendar turns to November the CFB stakes are high. Abby’s research has her barking confidently about a few games below.
South Carolina even at Mississippi -Ole Miss isn’t playing for anything as their past recruiting indiscretions leaves them bowl ineligible. South Carolina is trying to get to six wins eventually to become bowl eligible. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is trying to decide on a mascot. Tony the Landshark supplanted Rebel the Black Bear this year which had supplanted Colonel Reb who retired in 2003. Abby expects the Gamecocks to make just enough defensive stops. Two bones.
Iowa +3 at Purdue -The Boilermakers have had a great run. They crowning achievement was the beat down of THE. However, drinking too many Boilermakers post game left them hung over for Michigan St. and it showed. Abby expects a 60 minute dogfight. But in the end she thinks Iowa is the slightly better team. Two bones.
Arizona -3 v Colorado – Three weeks ago Colorado was undefeated. After Saturday night Abby thinks they’ll head back to the mountains panting at 5-4. Arizona isn’t that good of a team, and Abby wonders if Kevin Sumlin is much of a head coach. But we suspect the offense is ready to roll. One bone.
Penn St +10.5 at Michigan -The Wolverines are a very good team with a borderline great D. It’s in The Big House too. Abby wonders if Vegas is over playing this resurgence a bit. The line seems a bit high. Abby likes treats. One Bone.
Texas -2 v West Virginia -The Longhorns found out that being ranked sixth and actually performing like the sixth best team in the country have nothing in common. Okie St. dropped 60 minutes of reality on them. We think that they might be smarting from spending the week reading about how go they are (were). WVa is much better at home than on the road. Two bones.
Northwestern +9.5 v Notre Dame -Northwestern has won 12 of their last 13 BIG 10 contests. Impressive. Yet in week three they lost to Akron. Jeez. They won’t win this one, but Abby likes the points to cover. Two bones.
Florida -6 v Missouri – Missouri forgot to play the fourth quarter v Kentucky last week, losing 15-14 after leading 14-3 in Columbia entering the fourth quarter. They travel to Gainesville to face a Florida team that Georgia smacked around. Abby thinks that an angry Gator that bares his teeth is nothing to sniff at. It might get ugly. Chomp. Chomp. Three bones.
Georgia -8.5 at Kentucky – This line started at minus 12 and has been bet down three and a half points in four days. Abby likes to zig when others zag. Kentucky has played well all year and rallied hard at the wire to beat Mizzou as detailed above. The Wildcat’s D is legit having surrendered only 10.5 points on average in six SEC slugfests. This game likely determines the East in the SEC. Georgia just has too much firepower and covers in the fourth quarter. Three bones.
On a hunch take under 54 in Baton Rouge. LSU v Bama has been a defensive fist fight for the last several years. Since 2001 they have combined to go over 54 just twice. Tua Heisman might change that, but if LSU is going to stay close they won’t do it by outscoring Bama.
There you are. Abby puts a season high 16 bones on the table spread over eight games. Being the unbiased, impartial, doggone good journalist that she is, she won’t end this post by howling GEAUX TIGERS!
Abby Roux returned to the cashier’s booth last week. Her lethargy of two week’s ago is gone like last night’s t-bone treat. For the CFB season she stands strong tall on four paws with a 9-7 won/loss , a 28 of 47 bones, and a 3-1 hunch record all vying for best in show. Those results are 57%, 60%, and 75% respectively to the good side.
Speaking of the good and side, there are a few good teams sitting on the sidelines this week. Teams that have played from early September till now without a break are panting like a dog and need a bit of kennel time. In the AP top ten alone nos. 1,4,5,and 10 rest. On to the picks where some games look better to her bird dog eye than others.
Stanford -3 v Washington State – The Cougars travel after a huge home party in Pullman last week. This is a perfect spot for a letdown after they exhausted themselves leading and then outlasting Oregon. The Cardinal hasn’t really put 60 minutes together yet. Maybe they will Saturday. Three bones.
Missouri -7 v Kentucky – Abby has been chewing on this line all week. She cannot digest it. It makes no sense to her. It’s almost as if the wrong team might be favored. It’s as if Vegas is begging you to take the Wildcats. We’ll zig and take the Tigers at home for that reason and that reason alone. Two bones.
Virginia Tech -3 v Georgia Tech – Abby knows better than to bet Rambling Wreck games. It’s her version of chasing parked cars. Sometimes lessons are learned the hard way. If the Hokies want to play (they have been uneven this year) this is a 12 point Va Tech cover. If not, it’s another bumper right in the jowls. One bone.
Michigan St -1/2 v. Purdue – This game is like feels like a walk in the park on a clear 55 degree day with no leash to Ms. Roux. Purdue travels after a huge home win over THE. Michigan St. tries to rebound from a Wolverines defensive masterpiece. The lone flea on it is that Purdue is actually a lot better than Purdue normally is October’s end. Abby hedges just a bit because of that. Three bones.
Florida St +16 v Clemson, Kansas St. +24.5 at Oklahoma, and Navy + 23.5 at Notre Dame – The only thing Abby likes better than a big dog is, well, three big dogs. This is her first exotic bet of the year. It’s a long shot for obvious reasons. It’s three big dogs all wrapped up in a three team parlay. She likes the Seminoles better than the Midshipmen, and she likes the Midshipmen better than the Wildcats. Fearlessly she bundles the three. One bone to win seven bones.
On a hunch take Mississippi St. -2 over A&M. A&M hasn’t lost to anyone that they should not have. Jimbo is seeing to that. We think that Miss State’s trenches are their equal. This is a late field goal game winner at home for the wounded Bulldogs. Tread very lightly.
Five bets with four favorites and a three dog tease have us barking with anticipation for Saturday. It’s 10 bones wagered to win 16.
Abby accepted one too many dog treats and pats on the head after her two-week domination v. Vegas. A quick trip to the vet late Saturday evening seems to have her focused again for her fourth week. It’s college football’s week nine, and it’s getting interesting.
After a 4 bone win with 11 bones wagered and a 3-3 win/loss week, Abby Roux stands on all four paws at 21 bones buried with 36 wagered and 9 wins v. 7 losses season to date. Vegas got a bit back but Abby still has plenty gnaw on. Her hunch bet (Miss.) lost, but her prediction of a very high( she said 51-37 Miss. over Ark.) scoring affair prevailed. The over covered. Regardless her hunches are now 2-1.
Week Eight has some doggone good match ups that make for fun viewing. Let’s roll some bones.
Auburn -3 at Ole Miss -Abby nearly covered(minus 7 won by only 4) on Miss. last week on a hunch. Everyone wants to know what is wrong with Auburn after a loss to a Tennessee team that hadn’t won a conference game in over a year. Ole Miss is about to find out. The answer Saturday is…… nothing is wrong. Four bones.
Stanford -2.5 at Arizona St. -This isn’t Stanford’s best team. This isn’t Arizona State’s best team either. This isn’t the PAC 10’s best year.
If this game was at the tree huggers we would five bone it. It isn’t. Two bones.
North Carolina St. +17.5 at Clemson – NC St. is undefeated. I guess Vegas doesn’t think much of their competition thus far. Or, maybe they think Clemson will roll at home. This line almost is out of line and makes Abby want to paw the pay dirt with Clemson. But, she’ll take the heavy points in a light way. One bone.
Miss St. +7 at LSU -It’s Homecoming in BR. It’s also “we beat Georgia hangover” in BR. The Bulldogs feature a stout D line and a solid running game. Both are important to play LSU tight. Moo St. was off last week. We mentioned the LSU win last week v GA. Next week LSU is off. The week after they play Alabama. This is a classic trap game. Three bones.
Purdue +14 v. THE Ohio St U -Purdue has played pretty well against pretty good competition thus far. THE has played down to the level of some of their competition. This one is in Indiana. It’s not much more than a hunch bet. One bone.
On a hunch take Nebraska at home to cover 3 1/2 over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. If Nebraska falls to 0-7 Abby recommends that they bury their head in shame in the nearest gopher hole.
There they are, four road teams and one home. Three dogs and two chalks. Eleven bones are there for the taking plus one Cornhusker hunch.
Ever so quickly Abby Roux has a pack of watchdogs now watching her like a dog. Those canines have been hired by all of the big sports betting books in Vegas. They’re trying to get on to her like fleas. “Smart” money books, as they call themselves, are now adjusting lines when Abby offers her bone-i-fied opinion on the week’s college games.
And, why shouldn’t they? She’s hotter than some of the sponsors that she has picked up. Abby is a documented 6 up and 4 down in the win column. She is an even better bones bettor, burying 17 of the 25 bones that she was willing to risk. That’s 68%! Take that Mandalay Bay. Her hunch bets are a smooth 2-0. That’s some nice scratch overall.
This week Abby spent some long hours howling about trends she always likes. But those trends don’t show up too well in this week’s contests. She’s again urging caution, offering fewer bones to pick than last week. The bets follow.
Washington -3 at Oregon -Abby feels that there is only one team that has a shot at coming out of the PAC 10. It’s the Huskies of course. This is a must win for them. Plus Abby hunts Ducks when she isn’t picking games. Three bones.
Wisconsin +9 at Michigan – Wisconsin has underwhelmed thus far. Michigan’s only blemish is to an ND team that looks better by the week. Abby can’t think of many reasons to have faith in this near double-digit dog. Sometimes that’s plenty reason enough. Remember Abby likes to zig when others zag. Winner looks towards an eventual match up with THE OSU. The loser is done in any final four discussion. Two bones.
LSU +7.5 v Georgia -Three weeks ago LSU was outplayed in the trenches by Southeastern. Yep SELA. There was no way they would go into Auburn and win. But, they did. Barely. There is no way they can beat Georgia after Florida worked them in the trenches. But. Abby sez Georgia, with a late touchdown, wins 27-22. UGA goes wild. One bone.
Iowa St +6.5 v West Virginia -“Want to be” champions that want to be on a short list of real playoff contenders have to win games like this in conference and on the road. WVa did that against Texas Tech a couple of weeks back. They likely will do it again Saturday. But, Abby likes home dogs as you might have heard. So, a back door cover might get us there. Two bones.
Baylor +14.5 at Texas -This is a bet against the Longhorns not a bet for the Bears. Tom Herman got his first signature win last week beating Oklahoma when a freshman snapped the ball to a freshman who held the ball for a freshman who nailed a 40 yarder with only nine ticks (not those kind Abby says) on the clock left. Baylor has no D. Abby hopes that a road dog can catch a big steer napping. One bone.
Virgina Tech -5 at North Carolina – If the good Virginia Tech team shows up UNC fans will start marking the days till Tar Heel basketball. If the team that lost to Old Dominion shows up, never mind. Abby thinks the Hokies bounce back from a home thrashing at the hands of a good ND team. She also would like to know what the heck a Hokie is. Two bones.
On a hunch take Mississippi -7 to out score Arkansas roughly 51-37.
That’s 6 games and 4 dogs for a measly 11 bones. Don’t empty out what’s left in your 401k. Vegas might show its teeth this weekend.
Abby is a big hit this week in the college football mascot community. Both SEC Football Bulldogs (Miss St. and Georgia) gave her high five paws for her run on Vegas last week. Mississippi State’s bulldog refused to be photographed for this post. Tennessee’s blue tick hound, Smokey IX,
howled his approval as well. Why? Well, Abby had her college football betting debut last week and darn near won best in show.
Her record against the spread was three wins v. two losses while collecting nine of the 13 bones that she wagered. Her hunch bet (no bones) cashed as well. Let’s hope that this success does not go to her head and she can keep her four paws on the ground for more paydays.
Speaking of paydays, Abby has barked all week about how much tougher she feels this week’s betting lines and games shape up. She’s been busy trying to sniff out the winners, but suggests that you do not bet all of the dog food money this week.
Arkansas +35 over Alabama -We mentioned last week that Abby likes big dogs. Arkansas is a big dog yet again. They played decent D against the Aggies. Abby thinks Alabama might go through the motions and win easily, but not cover. Two bones.
Oklahoma -6.5 over Texas- The Red River Shootout actually has some bullets in the gun this year. Tom Herman is steering(see what Abby did there?) the Longhorns back. Abby feels like they will play a game game. But, they will fall short of an Oklahoma team that can score in bunches. The line started at -8. The amateurs are on the Longhorns. Abby likes that. Two bones.
Syracuse -3.5 over Pittsburgh -The Orangemen are pretty good. Either they’ll be hung over from the valiant effort v. Clemson or they won’t. If they are not, they should cover easily as they are much better than the Panthers. If they are flat, they’ll lose straight up. Abby says Cuse covers. Two bones.
Texas A&M -5 over Kentucky – Flip a coin. Heads, Kentucky is legit. Tails, Kentucky frequently starts out 4 or 5 and 0 then reality hits. Benny Snell is legit. Abby likes to bet on dogs (Kentucky), but Reveille (A&M’s mascot) gave her some inside scoop on this one. Aggies cover late. Two bones.
Florida St +13.5 v. Miami -Pick of the litter. Simply stated Miami isn’t that much better than any team with 85 talented dudes on scholarships much less an in state rival. War chant. Four bones.
Abby has two hunches. Take Iowa -7 over Minnie. Take the USA when you bet Navy v Air Force.