Engage. Enrage. Enjoy.

Last Call

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Several years ago responsible breweries changed their messaging.  “I’ll have another” was replaced by “please drink responsibly.”  Suddenly you needed to “know when to say when.”  Party poopers.

A couple of months ago a virus, with ironically a beer brand given name, shut down the bars altogether.  It shut down a globe actually.

Governments here, near, and far quickly became experts on the enemy that we cannot see.  They continue to tell and told us when and why we could or could not do what, and for how long we could not what.  Did you get the idea that for the most part they meant well but were clueless?  Do you get the idea that, for the most part, they mean well but are still clueless?

Medial experts have attempted to help our leaders understand what happens if we behave in certain ways.  Medical experts have historical, learned, trialed, and anecdotal ideas and possible remedies.  Apparently, none are definitive.  Meanwhile, we needed to flatten the curve through social distancing they said.  Most say we still need to do so.

But now our president has turned the keys over to the governors of our united 50 and encouraged them to turn the economic engines back on as they seem fit.  He really didn’t have the keys to begin with, but was attempting to be a good designated driver for a while.  After all, the states either shut the engine down or kept driving all along.

Today, in very round numbers, a third of the states are past their expected peak in cases, a third are at their peak, and a third will reach theirs next week.

So the very same people who shut down our party are now the same ones charged with making a decision about throwing the next one.  That should make us all confident, or not at all confident.

The need to get back to work and get back to a “new normal” has begun to pull at our purse strings.  You can’t afford beer and pretzels if you can’t work.  The government is doing it’s best Bernie Sanders impersonation.   It’s giving out free money like the last call drinker gives out advice.  And, like Bernie, we need a hair cut too.  But, as Margaret Thatcher once said, “socialism is great until you run out of other people’s money.”  The government printer has to be running low on ink soon.

So, isn’t it time?  One governor who’s state makes a lot of cars even reprised the role of Mother Hen.  She knows best and the answer is “hell no.”  One governor opened up the beaches and a party broke out.  He knows best and the answer is “hell yes.”   Offices, parks, retailers, eventually restaurants, and finally bars will reopen coast to coast.  Like any good office party, it might not be a good idea to be the first one there, nor the last one to leave.

When will we see you again?  Do you know when to say when?  Does anyone?

Neither Snow nor Rain nor Bailout

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Every time the sky is falling our trusty government steps in to help.   It means well we assume.   But, we should expect so much more.  Shouldn’t we?

After 9/11 we got an entirely new department.  The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) was born.  And nearly 20 years later we have tables that look like they were purchased at Walmart that have tubs that look like they were purchased at Walmart lined up to take an image of our belongings.  We have see-through machines that can see through our clothing as well.  And we have TSA employees that would struggle to be hired at Walmart telling us what to do.

Every time they run a security test on their own various screening methods they fail miserably.  Do you feel safer?  Isn’t there a better way?

After the financial crisis, driven largely by dicey mortgage loans packaged as investments, we got the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.  Dodd-Frank reorganized the financial regulatory system, eliminating the Office of Thrift Supervision, assigning new responsibilities to existing agencies like the FDIC, and creating new agencies like the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The CFPB was charged with protecting consumers against abuses related to credit cards, mortgages, and other financial products. The act also created the Financial Stability Oversight Council and the Office of Financial Research to identify threats to the financial stability of the U.S., and gave the Federal Reserve new powers to regulate systemically important institutions.  Did you get all of that?

The interest rates on credit cards remain 18% plus ten years later.  How is that for protecting consumers against abuses?  Apply for a mortgage and you’ll see at least three times the paperwork to get to the same spot.  You sign and you owe.  You owe and the bank collects.  You default and they take your house.

Now here comes the enemy that we cannot see.  And here comes the United States Postal Service(USPS) with their left hand on the mail and their right hand out.  USPS has lost $69 billion over the past 11 fiscal years. USPS’s total unfunded liabilities and debt ($143 billion at the end of the fiscal year 2018) have grown to double its annual revenue.

“The Postal Service is in need of urgent help as a direct result of the coronavirus crisis. Based on a number of briefings and warnings this week about a critical fall-off in the mail across the country, it has become clear that the Postal Service will not survive the summer without immediate help from Congress and the White House,” House Oversight and Reform Committee Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) said.

So, what happened?  Trump threatened to veto the CARES Act if it included USPS bailout money.  Instead, the government granted them a $10 billion loan.  Nevermind that the USPS has failed on numerous occasions in the last several years to repay a nickel of it’s current $13 billion U.S. government loan.

So should we expect so much more from the government?  Or in this instance should we expect so much less?  The virus is only yet another symptom of the illness that plagues the post office.  Al Gore’s internet created multiple avenues to reach consumers that used to get the solicitations in the mail.  Magazines, catalogs, and newspapers are more virtual than printed.  Bills?  Try online banking, please.  What’s left that Amazon Prime, FedEx, UPS, or countless other delivery services can’t handle?

At a minimum can the USPS deliver three times a week vs. the current six?  If your “revenues” are cut in half why not cut your expenses in half? If your mail comes to a box versus to your house, how often do you go get it anyway?

Why not?  If the government continues to bail out a very tired business model is “why not.”

Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds.”  Nor a lack of government funding.

Just this one time, when the sky is falling, could we do better by doing less?

 

        

 

Clueless

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

How about Colonel Mustard with the revolver in the Conservatory?  If you’re bored these days and have resorted to board games perhaps you dusted off the old one called Clue.

Clue has six characters and six weapons to consider when deciphering who did it and with what.  It’s played out in nine rooms of a mansion as well.  So who, what, and where give us 6x6x9 or 324 combinations of correct possibilities when trying to solve the mystery.

The mystery of who knew what and when about the where and how of the nasty enemy that we cannot see might have as many combinations.

Just last week President Trump accused the World Health Organization(WHO) of being the “who.”  He basically said that WHO gave cover for China as they misrepresented the cause and severity of this.  And, they still do.  He also said that the monetary price for WHO made the games that they were playing on the world stage far too expensive.  WHO countered as it’s president told Trump that playing political games would only increase the body bag count.

For months now rumors have abounded that this virus was world espionage at its highest and most corrupt level.  Did a Chinese lab accidentally or purposely cause the spread?  Repeatedly we were told emphatically, “NO!”   While looking for the “what” we’re told that their open-air wet markets offer bats for human consumption and that was the culprit.

China released an email last evening that warned the WHO on December 31, 2019 about seven atypical cases of pneumonia in the Wuhan Province.  But, now it’s learned that only 13 of the original 21 cases can be traced back to the market.  Further, the US has been contributing to the research of the lab for highly infectious diseases located a few miles from the market to the tune of $3.7 million per year.  Who knew?  WHO knew?  You’ve heard of the grassy knoll?

Trump wants and asks repeatedly for credit for shutting down the air service to and from China early on.  He feels strongly that this saved many lives.  Yesterday, no less of an expert than Barbara Steisand said that Trump alone was responsible for 20,000 deaths.  She feels strongly otherwise.

Meanwhile, no less of an expert than Dr. Anthony Fauci went on CNN (not Trump’s favorite) and said that Trump could have been more aggressive locking down the country earlier and saving lives. That sounds a lot like Professor Plum with the rope in the studio to us.  Of course, as late as leap year day, February 29, 2020, Fauci was telling the public that there was nothing to worry about as it posed no threat to the US public at large.

So, in the blame game we are approaching 324 combinations as well.   Yet, we don’t even know who has had it or who has it, yet finger-pointing has reached hot spot levels.  And, the curve is either flattening or not.

In the game Clue if you take a guess at the who, what, and where, and you get it wrong you’re eliminated.  The fictitious victim of foul play is Dr. Black.

In the real world, our guess is the next nonficticious victim will be Dr. Fauci.   And our guess is President Trump in the White House Oval Office with verbal blunt force.  “You’re Fired!”  Our clue comes from Trump the master tweeter who added a #FireFauci to his last evening’s barrage.

Meanwhile, we are being asked to stay in our room.  At least the game has nine rooms to move around in.

Perhaps the game should be renamed Clueless.  Of course, this is no game.

 

The Headlines Are Bold

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The headlines are bold.  Opening lines and quotes from articles around the US tell us all we need to know this morning.  Here they are.  We follow with a question or comment about them as we go.

During an interview on Wednesday Vice President Mike Pence stated that if people continue to follow guidelines, “we could be in a very different place by the end of April.”  Hopefully that means a better place because the current “different” place isn’t too good.  And, can anyone explain how way lower numbers then mean that we just don’t start climbing the bad hill all over again?  Hydroxychloroquine anyone?

The president commented on Bernie Sanders’ exit from the Democrat presidential primary during the White House press briefing.  “That’s a weird deal that’s going on,” he said.  What’s weirdest of all is that the man that we don’t see anymore (Joe Biden) basically wins the nomination while a virus that we don’t see derailed what was left of the race.  The best thing for Biden is less exposure.  Plus, he coughs into his hand.  He’s got great cover right now.

The Pope weighed in yesterday as well.  Pope Francis said he believes the Chinese coronavirus pandemic is “certainly nature’s response” to humanity’s failure to address the “partial catastrophes” wrought by human-induced climate change.  “Fires, earthquakes … nature is throwing a tantrum so that we will take care of her,” he said.  We have to wonder if human-induced climate change is also the reason that the Roman Catholic church has now spent billions of parishioner’s donations on covering up thousands of priest’s child sexual abuses.  Think of the financial contribution that the church could have made to the Green New Deal with that kind of dough.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday continued his criticism of the World Health Organization’s handling of Chinese coronavirus pandemic.  He pointed to a statement from the WHO as late as January 14 insisting there was no human to human transfer of the virus, echoing propaganda from China.  “Well, there was,” Trump said shortly.  The USA has paid for it in more ways than one.  “Last year, it was $452 million, and China paid $42 million,” Trump said regarding the funding of the WHO.  World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus responded, “Please quarantine politicizing COVID.  We will have many body bags in front of us if we don’t behave.”  Sure Tedros.  Thanks for the visual too.  The next thing you know the WHO will be telling us that climate change led to this mess.

James Carville said, “The Wisconsin Primary proved that Republicans will kill people to stay in power.”  Sure James.  Well, either social distancing works or not.  BBR wonders, ” Are liquor stores open in Wisconsin as necessary businesses?”  Sure, booze is optional. You can choose to stand in line or not for your Miller Lite.  But if the government knows best shouldn’t it either keep both liquor stores and voting booths open, or both closed?  If you closed liquor stores in Milwaukee you’d have real civil unrest.  This one is a tough call.

Linda Tripp, the Pentagon staffer who blew the whistle on President Bill Clinton’s illicit relationship with intern Monica Lewinsky in 1998, leading to the first presidential impeachment in more than a century, died on Wednesday at age 70.  We didn’t know it then, but apparently it was the birth of “fake news.”  In her words, “Most whistleblowers stand alone.  For all practical purposes, life as they know it ceases to exist. I was not protected. I was eviscerated. Not only by President Clinton and his wife but also by the mainstream media. A concerted effort began to decimate my credibility. The effort gave birth to what we now call fake news.”  They don’t make whistleblowers like Tripp anymore.  Isn’t that right Adam?

Mayday.  Mayday.  May is only 21 days away.

Emotion Recollected in Tranquility

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The start of April 2020 has been tough.   But, April is National Poetry Month, and it’s worth celebrating.  Isn’t it?  We don’t have too many choices otherwise.

Could there ever be a better name for a poet than William Wordsworth?  Wordsworth, the old wordsmith, wrote: “Poetry is the spontaneous overflow of powerful feelings: it takes its origin from emotion recollected in tranquility.”

We have lots of powerful feelings these days.  And, if you can keep your mind in a great place there is ample time for tranquility too.

With that as the backdrop, we present a poem so skillfully penned you would think it was carved from the edge of a surgeon’s scalpel.  It comes courtesy of an avid reader.

 

My Corona

 

We all had great jobs and unemployment was so low.

The market was way up, as we watched our retirement grow.

 

The U.S. was great again, and impeachment was a dud.

K.C. had won the Super Bowl, and Patrick Mahomes was a stud.

 

March Madness was starting.  Who would be king of the hoop?

Instantly, life changed when a Chinaman undercooked his bat soup.

 

But The Masters was starting soon.  We can’t miss Sunday’s back nine.

And baseball too?  But that’s America’s favorite pastime!

 

Social distancing is the CDC’s rule to observe.

All the models say we’ll flatten the curve.

 

What about Biden and Bernie and the democratic race?

6 feet apart, wear a mask and shelter in place

 

Corona is novel and like nothing we’ve ever seen.

Get in your house and serve a 14 day quarantine.

 

“Hydroxychloroquine and ZPak might help”, says the president.

Dr. Fauci says “No”, because there is no precedent.

 

Can’t we just try?  It might save our neck!

“No!”, says the Government.  We’ll send you a check.

 

Well done.  Bravo.  Amen.

Play Ball

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Is the stock market trying to tell us something?  The Dow was up over 1000 points yesterday.  In premarket trading it’s up another 750 points this AM.

We hesitate to even speculate.  We will, however.   But, we suggest that you keep hoarding toilet paper, if you can find it, in the meanwhile.

Does Wall St. see light at the end of the tunnel in the fight against the enemy that we cannot see?

President Trump said last evening that he can see it.   Is President Trump trying to tell us something?  He always does.  In a way it’s part of his job.  He sees it that way for sure.   Jimmy Carter told us in ’79 to use less energy and examine our lives when energy was in short supply.  Barack Obama told us that the manufacturing jobs were gone forever.  Trump is a tad bit more of an abrasively aggressive solutions-oriented president.

He said this on the same evening that he brokered a few deals.  He talked to two companies that must have some very advanced medicines or medical procedures in an effort to help Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Great Britain.   Johnson is now an ICU patient.  He also talked to India.  They are major producers of a drug that is rapidly gaining traction in the fight.

Have you ever heard of hydroxychloroquine?  It’s the same drug that Trump mentioned two weeks ago as hopeful and was taken apart by the media for a) giving medical advice when he wasn’t a doctor, or b) giving false hope.  Soon “hydroxychloroquine” might roll off of your tongue as easily as “social distancing” does today.

There are now more than a few doctors in a few countries that are treating coronavirus patients with the drug and in many instances in combination with one or two others.  We suggest that you read it for yourself.  We make no medical claims here.

IS MLB trying to tell us something?  Major League Baseball and its players are increasingly focused on a plan that could allow them to start the season as early as May and have the support of high-ranking federal public health officials who believe the league can safely operate amid the coronavirus pandemic, sources told ESPN.  Can you almost hear the crack of the ball off of the wooden bat off in the distance?

One thing is for sure.  We can’t live like we are for too much longer.  The world is built around commerce.  No commerce for too long means 1930’s bread lines that stretch too long.

The road to recovery on Wall St. has many potholes and left turns in front of it.  The medical road to recovery mandates that we drive six feet apart and is somewhere on some hill that might be flattening.

Trump is in the on-deck circle.  When the medical umpires think it’s safe enough he wants them to bellow “PLAY BALL.”   Don’t we all?

 

Trying Times. No Respect. Stay Safe.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As we near the end of week three of sheltering in place we look for the positives.  We are positive that we have had the opportunity to get reacquainted with our family in a way “normal” life doesn’t even allow.  With that comes benefits and drawbacks like most anything else in life as we know it.

So, it got us to wondering, WWRDSAT.  What would Rodney Dangerfield say about this?

  1.  It’s been great, you know?  With the restaurants closed we’ve been able to eat a lot more home-cooked meals.  But my wife, she’s a bad cook, you know?  Very bad.   At my house, we pray after we eat.
  2.  The other day we were running low on food.  She went to the store, you know?  I got a call.  Halfway there she ran into a tree.  I asked her, ‘did you swerve to avoid it?’  She said, ‘No, but I did blow the horn.’
  3.  The way she drives, are you kidding me?  Vehicles are very cheap right now.  I went out and bought the perfect second car for us.  A tow truck.
  4.  My sex life has suffered too.   That I can tell you.  The other day I went out on my bicycle to get some exercise.  As I turned back down my street for home I see a grown man running down my street.  I said “hey what are you doing running down my street naked?’  He said, ’cause you came home early.’
  5. My wife, I thought the next day she wanted to make it up to me.  I got home from my walk.  She greeted me at the front door in some very sexy lingerie.  The problem was she was headed out.
  6.  It’s getting worse you know.  She told me that she was cutting me down to twice a month.  I figured that wasn’t so bad really.  I know some guys that she cut out completely.  No respect.
  7. I’m getting desperate in these times.  I figured I’d quit the online gambling.  I called gamblers anonymous.  They gave me two to one odds that I wouldn’t make it.
  8. I went down the local AA meeting too.  They charged me ten bucks to get in and said there was a two-drink minimum.   No respect.
  9.  The way my kids live their lives isn’t helping either.  My daughter, she’s been picked up so many times she’s starting to grow handles.  They ended her senior school year early.  Nonetheless, she was voted “most likely to conceive.”
  10.  I only wish my son’s room was as clean as his weed.
  11. I tried to break up the monotony yesterday.  I told my kids, let’s play hide and seek.   They never came to find me.
  12.  I figured some alone time might be best for us all.  I decided to go outside and skate on the pond in our neighborhood.  My wife suggested that I wait until it gets warmer.
  13.  I tried to close my eyes and think back to better times.  My childhood.  Ah, yes.  I remember my mom telling me that she had morning sickness after I was born.
  14.  She said the doctor told her that he did everything that he could, but I lived.
  15.  Even growing up was tough.  I had to stop playing in the sandbox.  The cats. They kept trying to cover me up.

Trying times.

No respect.

Stay safe.

 

 

 

It’s ICYMI Friday

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s in case you missed it Friday.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson tested positive for COVID-19.  Why do we act so surprised when a celebrity, dignitary, athlete, or any other big who hah contracts the virus?  The virus doesn’t know who’s who.  It practices the diversity that we preach.

New Orleans Saints head football coach Sean Payton tested positive two weeks ago.  He announced that doctors “cleared” him yesterday.  If you had it and are now clear does that mean that you can do as you please without fear of reoccurrence? We guess so. You can only get the measles once.  Is there a doctor in the BBR house that can set us straight?

Harlem Globetrotter legend Curly Neal passed away yesterday at a too early 77.  The baddest, baldest dribbler on the globe was a great showman.  He played (performed) in roughly 6000 games and won every one of them.  He also won over millions of fans on five continents.  Check out the one-minute highlight video here.   Do it.  You’ll still have 23:59 of stay at home time to fill afterward today.

Isn’t Sweet Georgia Brown the greatest theme song for a show ever?  Close your eyes and whistle it.  It’ll take you back to your childhood in a Harlem, NY minute.

From the Monday close to the Thursday close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 20%.  It’s the largest three day gain percentage-wise for the average since 1930.  Based on this morning’s opening a four-day winning streak looks dicey.  Let’s not get greedy.

Boris Johnson’s news aside, the path chosen today was to lighten it up a bit.  It’s been another long week. So for today, that’ll do it.

We’ll keep it short and sweet.  Sweet like Georgia Brown.

 

How?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

How long has this been going on?  VP Mike Pence said last evening that we were crossing on to day eight of 15 of our national stay at home recommendation. Stay tuned.  It feels like a month already.  And it might be just that if the proverbial curve doesn’t start to flatten soon.

How many people are/were sick?  Globally we went from 200k to over 300k documented cases in an eyelash.  The world’s population is estimated at 7.7 billion.  So, 300,000 divided by 7,700,000,000 is .000039.  Stated another way it’s 4 in every 100,000 or 4 hundredths of one percent.  Got that?  It sounds like a very small number.  But it doesn’t speak to the recent past very well due to misdiagnoses, misinformation, no testing, etc.  It also projects very poorly in the near future it seems.  The short answer is we didn’t know then, and we don’t really know now.  And, that’s the worst nonanswer answer possible.

How many industries are getting crushed by the day?  Many.  The worst are the airlines, cruise ships, bars, casinos, and restaurants.

How many businesses are actually doing fairly well? Maybe not many, but a few certainly are.  Chlorox is one.  Amazon has to be another.  Their business model was built for tomorrow, and as it turns out, we need it for today.  Walmart is awfully glad that they invested billions into building out a virtual store as well.  Proctor and Gamble markets Crest, Dawn, Charmin, Bounty, Tide, Vicks, and Pampers.  Amazon, Walmart, and overrun grocery chains must be selling a lot of all of those.  Netflix and Verizon also come to mind.

How much longer do we need to wait for the children in Washington to provide a very much needed stimulus bill?  Apparently a bit longer.  After negotiating all weekend the Democrats voted against their own proposal.  Nancy Pelosi flew in from Cali, a state of emergency, to persuade colleagues to vote against what they constructed.  That’s not very constructive.

How many times can President Trump stand in front of his assembled crisis team, grab the mic, and tell us how great of a job they are doing by citing polls?  The answer is every day for the past seven and likely every day for the next seven or more as well.  Many in his base are willing to look past what he says and how he says it in favor of relishing in the results achieved three years to date.  But in a world of what have you done for us lately, he seems out of his league on this one.  His best move would be to move to the side and let his team tell the tale.  He never moves to the side, however.  And PS, didn’t he tell us three years ago that polls were inaccurate?

How can Joe Biden be the best alternative for the never Trumpers or non-Trump crowd?  He’s been seen a total of eight minutes in the last six days due to supposed telecommunication issues.  That probably helps him actually.    It does lower his gaffes per day average.  He does have a captive audience though.  We’re all sitting home, not working, and complaining about everything.  And, now we’re all waiting on a stimulus check.  That sounds like a crowd tailor-made for him.

How did we get here?  This is China bat $#@% crazy.

Stay tuned.  Stay home.  Stay strong.  Stay safe.

 

MAHA

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

We doubt that you missed it.  But, if you did, here it is.   The Governor of California issued a statewide  “stay at home” order last afternoon.

“We need to bend the curve in the state of California,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in an announcement. “There’s a social contract here.  People, I think recognize the need to do more. They will adjust and adapt as they have.”

Newsom also sent a letter to President Trump with the presumption that over half of California’s 35 million residents will contract the virus in the next 8 weeks.  Probably not.  Maybe.  Who knows?  He also requested that Trump dispatch the USNS Mercy hospital ship to the Port of Los Angeles through September 1, 2020, to assist with expected cases.  The visual of that would be, dare we say it, 9/11 tower-like.  But, are we past trying to look good?

With the a) the number of cases in the U.S. rising sharply by the day, and b) the number of deaths geometrically increasing in Italy, it is understandable to take this action.

Won’t the other 49 states get there at some point?   Aren’t we almost there, save for a few morons who decided to party on South Beach this week, anyway?  And, the sooner the better so sooner we can get better, please.

The local golf course did the following.  Four weeks ago it was business as usual.  Three weeks ago all of the carts and tables were getting wiped down after each use.  Two weeks ago there were no more condiments on tables and no more scorecards and pencils on the carts.  This week the restaurant and halfway stand are closed, and the sand trap rakes and divot fill sand containers gone.  Next week there will be no more holes cut in the greens, rather a small pot with a small flag will sit somewhere on the green as a target.

We kid you not on the above.  And, yet, if the increasingly safer measures taken by the week aren’t enough, what is?  What’s next, a sign saying keep off of the greens and tee boxes?  What’s left?  And, that’s the point.

On 2/26 San Francisco’s mayor declared a local emergency to make it easier for the populous city and international travel hub to combat novel coronavirus if it comes — even while stressing that it isn’t there yet.  It sounded Draconian just 23 days ago,  Not one case, not one case we repeat, had hit the city at that point.

What would Italy do if it had a do-over?

A national “stay at home” order would be a bold stroke.  It’s time to combat this invisible monster with a bold stroke.  Newsom is attempting to do just that.

Trump, if nothing else, is bold and combative.

MAHA- Make America Healthy Again.