Life

How?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

How long has this been going on?  VP Mike Pence said last evening that we were crossing on to day eight of 15 of our national stay at home recommendation. Stay tuned.  It feels like a month already.  And it might be just that if the proverbial curve doesn’t start to flatten soon.

How many people are/were sick?  Globally we went from 200k to over 300k documented cases in an eyelash.  The world’s population is estimated at 7.7 billion.  So, 300,000 divided by 7,700,000,000 is .000039.  Stated another way it’s 4 in every 100,000 or 4 hundredths of one percent.  Got that?  It sounds like a very small number.  But it doesn’t speak to the recent past very well due to misdiagnoses, misinformation, no testing, etc.  It also projects very poorly in the near future it seems.  The short answer is we didn’t know then, and we don’t really know now.  And, that’s the worst nonanswer answer possible.

How many industries are getting crushed by the day?  Many.  The worst are the airlines, cruise ships, bars, casinos, and restaurants.

How many businesses are actually doing fairly well? Maybe not many, but a few certainly are.  Chlorox is one.  Amazon has to be another.  Their business model was built for tomorrow, and as it turns out, we need it for today.  Walmart is awfully glad that they invested billions into building out a virtual store as well.  Proctor and Gamble markets Crest, Dawn, Charmin, Bounty, Tide, Vicks, and Pampers.  Amazon, Walmart, and overrun grocery chains must be selling a lot of all of those.  Netflix and Verizon also come to mind.

How much longer do we need to wait for the children in Washington to provide a very much needed stimulus bill?  Apparently a bit longer.  After negotiating all weekend the Democrats voted against their own proposal.  Nancy Pelosi flew in from Cali, a state of emergency, to persuade colleagues to vote against what they constructed.  That’s not very constructive.

How many times can President Trump stand in front of his assembled crisis team, grab the mic, and tell us how great of a job they are doing by citing polls?  The answer is every day for the past seven and likely every day for the next seven or more as well.  Many in his base are willing to look past what he says and how he says it in favor of relishing in the results achieved three years to date.  But in a world of what have you done for us lately, he seems out of his league on this one.  His best move would be to move to the side and let his team tell the tale.  He never moves to the side, however.  And PS, didn’t he tell us three years ago that polls were inaccurate?

How can Joe Biden be the best alternative for the never Trumpers or non-Trump crowd?  He’s been seen a total of eight minutes in the last six days due to supposed telecommunication issues.  That probably helps him actually.    It does lower his gaffes per day average.  He does have a captive audience though.  We’re all sitting home, not working, and complaining about everything.  And, now we’re all waiting on a stimulus check.  That sounds like a crowd tailor-made for him.

How did we get here?  This is China bat $#@% crazy.

Stay tuned.  Stay home.  Stay strong.  Stay safe.

 

MAHA

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

We doubt that you missed it.  But, if you did, here it is.   The Governor of California issued a statewide  “stay at home” order last afternoon.

“We need to bend the curve in the state of California,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in an announcement. “There’s a social contract here.  People, I think recognize the need to do more. They will adjust and adapt as they have.”

Newsom also sent a letter to President Trump with the presumption that over half of California’s 35 million residents will contract the virus in the next 8 weeks.  Probably not.  Maybe.  Who knows?  He also requested that Trump dispatch the USNS Mercy hospital ship to the Port of Los Angeles through September 1, 2020, to assist with expected cases.  The visual of that would be, dare we say it, 9/11 tower-like.  But, are we past trying to look good?

With the a) the number of cases in the U.S. rising sharply by the day, and b) the number of deaths geometrically increasing in Italy, it is understandable to take this action.

Won’t the other 49 states get there at some point?   Aren’t we almost there, save for a few morons who decided to party on South Beach this week, anyway?  And, the sooner the better so sooner we can get better, please.

The local golf course did the following.  Four weeks ago it was business as usual.  Three weeks ago all of the carts and tables were getting wiped down after each use.  Two weeks ago there were no more condiments on tables and no more scorecards and pencils on the carts.  This week the restaurant and halfway stand are closed, and the sand trap rakes and divot fill sand containers gone.  Next week there will be no more holes cut in the greens, rather a small pot with a small flag will sit somewhere on the green as a target.

We kid you not on the above.  And, yet, if the increasingly safer measures taken by the week aren’t enough, what is?  What’s next, a sign saying keep off of the greens and tee boxes?  What’s left?  And, that’s the point.

On 2/26 San Francisco’s mayor declared a local emergency to make it easier for the populous city and international travel hub to combat novel coronavirus if it comes — even while stressing that it isn’t there yet.  It sounded Draconian just 23 days ago,  Not one case, not one case we repeat, had hit the city at that point.

What would Italy do if it had a do-over?

A national “stay at home” order would be a bold stroke.  It’s time to combat this invisible monster with a bold stroke.  Newsom is attempting to do just that.

Trump, if nothing else, is bold and combative.

MAHA- Make America Healthy Again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sure Thing

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The year was 1999.  As a Patriot did you do your part and party like it was 1999?

Patriot fans should have.  And they should have, not because the world was about to dive headlong into a new century, but because an afterthought 6th round draft choice named Tom Brady was selected by New England.

“They” say that nothing is a sure thing except death and taxes.  Tom Brady was anything but a sure thing.  You might have been smarter to withdraw money from your local ATM to stuff under your mattress than to bet on Tom making the club, much less staring in the Patriot’s patriotic red, white, and blue uniforms for 20 years.  He won a few Super Bowls, too.

Remember the world was going to end back then when the clock struck 12:01 AM on day one of the year two thousand.  Computers were going to be rife with viruses and forever disrupt our lives.  The experts told us as much.   It might feel the same way now if you insert the word “humans” for the word “computers.”

Back then Kurt Warner, coached by Dick Vermeil, led the St. Louis Rams to a thrilling Super Bowl XXXIV win.  Who did they beat?  The Tenessee Titans. It was year one of them being known as such.  The prior two years they were the Tenessee Oilers and before that the Houston Oilers.  The Houston Texans didn’t yet exist.  Feel old?

The next sure thing, say the NFL experts, is Joe Burrow.  Comparisons abound.  The one that is bandied around most often is that Burrow reminds the “experts” of Tom Brady.  Funny thing is, the “experts” all overlooked Tom Brady, who turned out to be the surest thing.  Have you heard that nothing is a sure thing?

Tom Brady is going to be a Tampa Bay Buccaneer.  Sure thing.  Joe Burrow is going to be a Cincinnati Bengal.  Sure thing.

The rest of this is history yet to be written.

A lot can happen in 20 years.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 1999 at 11,497, then an all-time high.  In mid-February, the DJIA closed at 29,472, then an all-time high.  Some “experts” think we might be going back to 11,497.  Others think we’ll get back to 29k.  Who knows?  Maybe we should ask Bill Belichick.

With panic at all-time high levels itself, good health is foremost on our minds. The alternative is not an option.   Taxes are still due, but Trump’s going to delay the inevitable for some time.

Perhaps there is no such thing as a “sure” thing?

Maybe we should be partying like it’s 1999.

 

 

 

 

 

Laughter, the Best Medicine.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

A quick Google search for Reader’s Digest showed that a) yes the now 10x a year magazine is still published, and b) the circulation is over 3 million.

Long ago one of their monthly features was a compilation of musings of American life titled Laughter, It’s the Best Medicine.  It was (and maybe it still is) so well appreciated that they compiled the best and made them into paperbacks unto themselves.

We looked it up since we find the laughter part in understandably short supply these last several days.  Maybe it is the best medicine right now since the health and economy of the world is a bad joke being repeated in many languages.  Hopefully below makes light of a bit of it all.

At the local overrun grocery store Saturday at 8 AM we turned down one aisle to see a shopper with a buggy that looked like it could hold no more in it nor below.  The stack-up was monumentally well done.  “Crazy times,” she said.  “Crazy times,” I said.  One more glance at the pile and you could see four very large bottles of ketchup.  Four.  FOUR.   I had to.  “Hey, I’m just curious.  Why so much ketchup?”  “My husband loves it.  The last thing he told me before I left was to make sure he didn’t run out.”  Mission accomplished we presume.

Two aisles later were paper products.  An employee was stationed at the toilet paper run as a shopper put the third package of Charmin in her cart.  “Ma’am, as you can see from the limit sign, just two please.”  No response.  “MA’AM, its a limit of two, please.” As she pushed on, over her departing shoulder she said, “Oh, this one is for a friend of mine.” So thoughtful.

Over in dairy yet another employee was staged to help manage the mayhem.  By now, absolutely amazed at waiting in line 45 minutes to shop and witness it all, it was time to lighten things up a bit.  “Excuse me.  Do you know when the hurricane is supposed to make landfall?”  He looked unamused.  “Too soon?”  He nodded affirmatively.   The strong silent type he is apparently.

Meanwhile, Sunday night two nearly octagenarians battled it out appropriately six feet apart in a near-empty CNN studio.  The Democratic Nomination is still there for the taking Bernie believes.  Does he really?  Crazy Bernie screamed “Medicare for All” repeatedly for 90 minutes.  Crazy times.

Joe Biden confused Ebola with the Swine Flu with the Coronavirus with H1N1 with N1H15 with R2D2 and with CP30 at one point.  Of course, this was after he began the debate with a strong cough right into his fist when he was asked what he would do to combat the rapidly spreading virus.  You cannot make this stuff up.

Fox News resident rabble-rouser, Greg Gutfeld, tweeted during the debate “two cranky old farts arguing over who didn’t do what or did do that.  It’s like a Florida condo meeting over who keeps parking too close to the boat dock.”

Maybe the joke is on us.  Trump’s press conferences in the last week needed a standing eight count at times.  One of these two (very very likely Biden) will have a chance to knock him out of the office.   That chance (like it or not) improves by the day as our chance to escape a major disruption to our medical and economic well being is gone.

Maybe, just maybe, laughter is the best medicine.  And, you don’t need to wait for a test that we don’t have to get a prescription for it.  Laughter for All!

Pass the ketchup, please.

 

 

 

 

This Time It’s….

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

This time it’s different.  Actually, every time it’s different.

On the medical side there has been SARS, H1NI, Ebola, the Hong Kong flu and many more outbreaks, quickly spreading viruses, epidemics, and even an occasional pandemic.

On the economic side there has been The Great Depression, many recessions, runaway late seventies inflation, the Arab Oil Embargo, the dot com bubble, 9/11, the 2008-09 financial crisis,  and many more significant to severe downturns.

And now it’s COVID-19.  It’s the Coronavirus.  It’s the Wuhan Virus.

BBR leadership and its staff make no claims to being a medical expert nor an economic guru.  We do, however, have significant experience in watching human behavior through most of these tough times.

Experience teaches us that this too will pass.  But it sure doesn’t feel like it, does it?

We want improvement.  We want answers.  We want results.  We want to get away mentally.  We want to get away physically.  We want.  We want.

This time it’s the same.  It’s just that every time we get into a very rough patch like this one it feels different.

The problem is we can’t see it.  The problem is that we really didn’t see it coming.  “It won’t affect me!”  And, we won’t know that it’s gone until someone with a white long coat and a tie tells us it’s gone.

Actually this time it’s the same.   Actually every time it’s the same.

We just want to wash our hands and want to be done with this.  And, we should want to-wash our hands that is.

It’s always darkest before the dawn.  The sun will eventually come up.  It always does.

Perception May Not Be Reality

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Yesterday we labeled “Tough Monday.”  One week ago most everyone agreed was “Super Tuesday.”   Joe Biden was at first the lone dissenter to that mantra, but after the results came in from about 15 states he quickly changed his mind about the public perception of him.  What will today bring us?

There is perception and there is reality.  When the perception becomes so strong that it changes behavior, a new day has dawned.

Once upon a time it was considered in style, even sexy, to smoke cigarettes.  The surgeon general told us enough times that smoking will kill you.  Our perception of smoking changed to the point where we frown upon anyone who smokes.

Stated plainly, if everyone thinks the COVID-19, aka the Coronavirus, will do them great harm or even kill them, then human behavior is dramatically changed.  If you don’t believe BBR, then head to your local food or drug store.  Try buying hand soap, cough or cold medicines, or egads, toilet paper.  When is the last time you shook hands with anyone?  Check your 401k lately?

Human behavior has dramatically changed until our perception changes.  We cast no judgment.  It’s better to be safe than sorry we heard.

However, we cannot help but wonder if this has reached the point of being a bit overblown at least in the U.S.  We highly recommend that you take three minutes and read this link.  We’ve found it to be the most unemotional, fact-based, and intuitive piece on the virus that we have read.

In the meantime, we cannot help but wonder as well that people would actually (on TV and Twitter yesterday) find the time to debate the “insensitivity” of calling COVID-19 the Wuhan Virus.  Chris Hayes, MSNBC’s resident word policeman, called it a social injustice.

Good Lord people, get over yourself.  What about Peking Duck?  If you don’t want the blame for the virus, you don’t get credit for the duck anymore either.

Was your perception of that insensitive?  We hope it wasn’t.  But, if it was, so be it.  It’s our perception.

Please wash your hands to help keep the virus away.  And, please wash them again of this overblown politically correct BS.

 

It’s a Tough Monday

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

We wonder.  The Coronavirus has the world gripped in fear and firmly in its nasty little paws.

How bad would it be if you were stuck on a cruise ship that has over 50 cases and counting and no cities or states want you?  Oakland stepped up and now you step off of the confinement of the ship into a different confinement with your fellow passengers to see if you will become the latest confirmed case.  It’s a two-week mind game that you hope to not have to play.

How bad would it be if your business was sailing cruise ships?  The US State Department issued a statement this weekend advising all citizens to avoid cruise ships for their own protection from the virus.  Our wild guess is that future bookings might be down 80% or more.

How bad will this entire surreal medical emergency get?  On one hand, it seems (assuming that the Chinese government is telling the truth) that the spread of cases in China has slowed a good bit.  On the other hand, the cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran seem to be accelerating.

How bad is it in Italy?  Sixteen million citizens are now being self quarantined in Northern Italy.  The plan to do so got leaked.  And with it many citizens rushed to get out of the quarantined zone.  So much for quarantining it.  The plan got leaked and so did the virus.  Italian stocks on the blue-chip FTSE MIB initially failed to open Monday along with other European markets. When the index did open, stocks were trading down 2,290 points, or about 11% lower.   Italy has over 7500 confirmed cases and 366 deaths and counting.

The NBA told its teams to prepare for playing games in empty areas to try to help slow the transmission.  All Italian sporting events will do just that till April at a minimum.  Japan is the host country for the 2020 Summer Games in late July.  There are a lot of yen bet that the torch never gets lit.

How bad is the perception?  In a word, it is terrible.  How bad is the reality?  That’s the unknown and hence the fear which is now bordering on panic.

We suppose as the weather warms, our immune systems do what they do, or if a vaccine were to be developed that this too shall somehow pass.

Why does it feel different this time?

We wonder.

We hope.

Stay strong.

Guns and No Roses.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Happy Valentine’s Day.

Ninety-one years ago today, St. Valentine’s Day as it was known then, wasn’t so happy in Chicago.  A mass murder, labeled the Valentine’s Day Massacre, was executed after significant planning.

The year was 1929 and prohibition laws ruled the land.  And, Al Capone ruled Chicago.  But George “Bugs” Moran and his northside Irish gang wanted more than what Capone thought was his fair share of the lucrative bootleg booze biz.

Capone escaped the winters of Chicago by living in Miami for the season.  While down there his right-hand man, Jack ” Machine Gun” McGurn, visited and together they crafted a plan to squash Bugs and his gang. Capone ordered the Detroit “Purple Gang” to handle this so that no one in Chicago could identify them.

The plan included a stolen police car and two stolen police uniforms, and two lookouts.  A planted bootlegger was expected to enter the premises at 10:30 AM to sell some stolen liquor to the eager Moran.  The lookouts thought they saw Bugs enter into the North Clark St. gang headquarters then and signaled so.

Two Detroit gang members entered posing as cops.  Two others entered in plain clothes.  Bugs’ gang believed that this was just another police shakedown and cooperated by lining up against a wall and surrendering their guns.  The four proceeded to riddle the seven inside with multiple gunshot wounds.  All of them died.

But, none of them were Bugs Moran.  He arrived a few minutes later and stayed a safe distance away also believing it to be just another police money shakedown.

After the massacre, the two posing as cops walked out, guns pointed at the two others who participated and now were posing as arrested gang members with their hands held high.  And, off they drove.

The massacre drew national headlines and is thought to be the catalyst to get the reluctant FBI involved in gang warfare.

Witnesses were interviewed.  Many mistakenly identified local policemen who were nowhere near at the time.  Suspects were interrogated.  No one was ever arrested.

Bugs Moran survived by being late for a meeting.  But the statement made was understood loud and clear.

Capone had the perfect alibi.  He was living large in sunny Miami.  And, from afar his legend grew even larger.

And the Winner Is?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The 92nd Academy Awards presentation, more commonly known as The Oscars, was broadcasted live from Hollywood last evening.  The glamour and production looked alive and went quite well.  But, apparently, all is not well with the world according to a few woke people who had a chance to wake the rest of us up.

The very first award went to Brad Pitt for Best Supporting Actor for his role in Once Upon a Time…..In Hollywood.  Once upon a time in Hollywood actors thanked their friends, family, and all who had a role in making the movie.  Brad did that and more.  He told the crowd that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences told him that he only had 45 seconds to address the assembled.  He commented that “45 seconds is 45 seconds more than the Senate allowed John Bolton to testify last week.”

BBR contacted Pitt’s agent last evening asking for comment on a persistent rumor.  Will Pitt and Mitch McConnell costar in the remake of Disney’s Beauty and the Beast?  “No comment,” came the terse reply.

Former President Barrack Obama and First Lady Michelle are celebrating the first Oscar win for their new production company, Higher Ground, which saw American Factory win Best Documentary Feature on Sunday evening.  By all accounts it’s a moving and well-made film.

It has one glaring omission, however.  The Obama administration bailout of troubled GM included a backroom deal that made the supportive United Auto Workers the exclusive union going forward in the deal.  The GM plant in Moraine, OH was unionized by the IUE-CWA. So despite being one of the top GM facilities for quality, efficiency, and production in the country, it was shuttered.  Its employees were put at the back of the line when requesting transfers to other GM plants.

The bailout actually forced the closure of the plant.  Chinese investments, state, and local officials actually got that plant started back up again with one caveat.  All hires needed to be with the UAW and were treated as new employees regarding benefits, wages, etc.

BBR would love to get a comment from the former president.   Given his net worth and security, he may be hard to track down.  He could be in any one of the 57 states that he said he visited.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences took the unprecedented step on Sunday of recognizing that the Oscars ceremony is actually taking place on tribal lands.

“The Academy would like to acknowledge that tonight we have gathered on the ancestral lands of the Tongva, the Tataviam, and the Chumash,” Jojo Rabbit director and presenter Taika Waititi said. “We acknowledge them as the first peoples of this land on which the motion pictures community lives and works.”

Since 2002, the Oscars have taken place at the Dolby Theatre, formerly the Kodak Theatre.  This year, the Academy bestowed an honorary Oscar to actor Wes Studi, making him the first Native American actor to win an Oscar.

BBR left messages for Native American Elizabeth Warren and her President 2020 campaign seeking comment.  We think our chances of getting a return call are roughly 1 in 1024.

The international movie Parasite, the winner of four Oscars, stole the show but did not unfairly infiltrate the process.  The Oscar presentation was long, but the vote results were not in dispute.

Hollywood had a better night than Iowa had all last week.

 

Dream a Little

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

On a day that we pay tribute to civil rights leader Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.  many still dream like the good Doctor once did.  Different people dream for different reasons.  We wonder who is dreaming today and what they are dreaming about.

Is the NBA dreaming for higher ratings than they have had ytd?  Yep.  Today they’ll play from morning till night on national broadcasts in hopes of recapturing some lost ratings.   It’s weird that the two top teams in the west play in the largest city in the west, yet ratings are down.

Is Donald J. Trump dreaming that tomorrow’s beginning of the impeachment trial in the Senate is the beginning of the end of this ‘witch hunt” or “hoax” as he calls it?  Sure.  Although, the showman likes microphones, drama, and name calling, so he might enjoy a little testimony from a few folks.  He dreams of getting Hunter Biden and Adam Schiff under oath, does he not?

Is Patrick Mahomes dreaming of his first Super Bowl win.  You bet.  And you might.  The early line has his KC team installed as a 1 1/2 point favorite over the San Francisco 49ers. Mahomes is the best QB in the league these days.  Anyone who sees it differently is dreaming.  He is a defensive matchup nightmare.

Is Jennifer Aniston dreaming of a reunion with one time hubby Brad Pitt?  Who knows?  Does anyone really care?  Really care?   It makes TMZ, People, and the like dream of high ratings.

Is Elizabeth Warren dreaming that people will forget her falsehoods when she asked out loud on the stump Saturday, “How could the American people want someone who lies to them?”  The Massachusetts Democrat spoke to reporters in Iowa on Sunday when asked if it is disqualifying for a presidential candidate to lie about anything.  She didn’t call anyone by name leaving it open to whether she was talking about Bernie Sanders, Donald J, or, perhaps, herself?

If you have the day off, dream a bit if you wish.  It’s not doctor’s orders, but it’s good tonic.

If you don’t, stop daydreaming and get back to work please.