Recession Fears Pummel Stocks

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Friends

Stocks took a beating today fueled by lousy economic numbers overnight in Germany and China, and a yield curve inversion in the closely watched 2/10 year Treasury note spread. Now, late in the day the actual spread is not inverted (the 2 year is at 1.58% while the 10 year is at 1.59%), but for overreacting’s sake, we’ll just say that they are. You know the drill, an inverted yield curve either means we are heading into recession or at least it will be the cause of one. Yes, for whatever reason you choose (political, doomsday punditry, self-loathing) we are once again determined to talk ourselves into a recession. Given the overwhelming negative sentiment at the moment, stocks simply didn’t have a chance today.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 800 points to finish the day at 25,479. The S&P 500 was down 85 points to close at 2,840. Gold was up $11 to trade at $1,526 per ounce, while oil was down $2.01 to trade at $55.09 per barrel WTI.

Yes, folks we will experience another recession at some point. As a matter of fact, if we are lucky enough to live for a couple more decades (fingers crossed) we are going to experience more recessions and more bear markets for stocks. Capitalism produces business cycles. Now, central bankers have been desperately trying to eliminate business cycles for some time, but eventually they face diminishing returns for their efforts (see Japan). We are likely to see the Fed cut rates again soon (never give up), but it is questionable just how that will help. I guess if mortgage rates drop to 1% the housing sector is safe. And, by the way for investors and planners who need to provide income at retirement, negative interest rates might be a problem (yes, more than a trillion dollars of debt has negative yield around the globe- I’m not kidding). So… will the Fed be able to get out in front of this coming recession and cut it off at the pass? Are negative yields coming to a financial institution near you? Or, will the “don’t fight the Fed” vigilantes prove to be right once again as TINA shows off her market powers? Insert thinking guy emoji.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Stocks Tumble 3% On Trade Tensions

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Friends

Well, that escalated rather quickly. After last week’s difficulties for stocks triggered by the President lighting the trade war tariff match, China’s threatened retaliations (and currency devaluation) along with unrest in Hong Kong sent stocks tumbling at the open of trading this morning. Tumbling turned into cascading by midday and continued into the afternoon. Though, we did recover some and closed off the lows of the day, it basically was a mess for the bulls. Interest rates around the world continue to tumble, adding to anxiety that the global economies are becoming less and less fixable, and central banks will have less and less effect on them.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 767 points to finish the day at 25,717. The S&P 500 was down 87 points to close at 2,844. Gold was up $15 to trade at $1,473 per ounce, while oil was down $.81 to trade at $54.85 per barrel WTI.

Very quickly, the S&P 500 is down 6% from the all-time highs, and if you look back exactly one year the S&P is basically flat. But, of course, we’ve had a lot of action between now and then, not to mention a lot of anxiety and a few thrills. Wow, this is just Monday! Buckle up for the week ahead. We’ll let you know how it all unfolds.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Better Than Expected

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Friends

Despite a slight earnings miss by Amazon, there were many
other good earnings releases, not the least of which was Alphabet’s, which
helped push market averages to new all-time highs. Today’s GDP number, which
showed 2.1% growth in the 2nd quarter, was actually a little better
than expected, but not so hot as to deter the Fed from cutting rates next week.
That expectation of a rate cut along with a reasonably good earnings season is
fueling the market advance.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 51
points to close at 27,192. The S&P 500 was up 22 points to finish the day
at 3,025. Gold was up $2 to trade at $1,417 per ounce, while oil was up $.18 to
trade at $56.20 per barrel WTI.

It was a very busy week for corporate earnings, and with
nearly half of the S&P having reported, EPS growth is actually showing a
positive number, which is definitely better than expected. The earnings deluge
will continue next week, and of course, we will have the FOMC meeting on
Tuesday and Wednesday. With today’s market action, it appears that market
participants are getting more comfortable with the corporate earnings picture,
and most certainly are expecting an interest rate cut next week. It should be
another fun week ahead. We’ll keep an eye on it all for you.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jim

Big Earnings Week

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Friends

Buckle up. This is a big week for corporate earnings as
we’ll hear from Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Facebook, Travelers, Caterpillar,
Lockheed Martin, Kimberly Clark, Harley Davidson, United Technologies, Coca
Cola, AT&T, Boeing, Ford, 3M, Intel, McDonald’s, and Colgate-Palmolive-
just to mention a few. Then we’ll have another big week for earnings next week
while at the same time an FOMC meeting is happening. So, by the end of the
month, we’ll have a good read on corporate America and we’ll know whether the
Fed has begun to lower interest rates again. It should be a very interesting
couple of weeks.

Other than some strength in the Nasdaq, stocks were mostly
quiet today, perhaps in anticipation of a lot of fireworks coming the next two
weeks. For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 17 points to close
at 27,171. The S&P 500 was up 8 points to finish the day at 2,985. Gold was
up $1 to trade at $1,427 per ounce, while oil was up $.46 to trade at $56.09
per barrel WTI.

So far it’s been a difficult earnings season to figure out.
Expectations were lowered coming into this earnings season, but stock prices
were sitting at all-time highs. This somewhat confusing set up has led to
market participants wondering just how stocks will react to the releases, and
so far the reactions have been mixed and somewhat muted. Let’s see if anything
breaks loose over the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned, we’ll keep you apprised
of the developments.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Record Highs On Early Trading/Early Close Tomorrow

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Friends

As expected, it was a very quiet day of trading. Stocks were
able to squeak out a small gain by the close, but volume was light and
volatility was muted. We do have the ADP private payroll jobs number tomorrow, and
the non-farm payroll number on Friday, so that might add a little spice to the
situation before the end of the week.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial was up 69 points to
close at 26,786. The S&P 500 was up 8 points to finish the day at 2,973. Gold
was up $27 to trade at $1,416 per ounce, while oil was down $2.72 to trade at
$56.37 per barrel WTI.

With 4th of July on Thursday, the markets close
early tomorrow at 12:00 noon our time- so we will be closing the office early. We’ll
let you know if anything happens during the shortened trading session tomorrow
before heading out for the day.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Stocks Top Off A Great First Half

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Friends

The bulls were content to sit on their gains as the quarter
came to a close today. Market participants will be keeping an eye on
developments coming out of the G20 meetings over the weekend, but as we look into
the second half of the year (can you believe that?), the bulls have some
headwinds to navigate, not the least of which could be a developing earnings
recession.

As for today, by the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average
was up 72 points to finish the day at 26,599. The S&P 500 was up 16 points
to close at 2,941. Gold was up $1 to trade at $1,413 per ounce, while oil was
down $1.44 to trade at $57.99 per barrel WTI.

It was a very good first half of the year for the bulls. As
mentioned, many challenges lie ahead as we enter the second half of the year.
We’ll know what transpired on the China trade front when we fire things up on
Monday, and then we’ll begin to look ahead to the upcoming corporate earnings
season. Trade, corporate earnings, a jobs report and inflation numbers will all
be considered when the FOMC meets in late July. Expectations are that the Fed
will cut rates at that meeting, but that remains to be seen. Let’s first enjoy
the gains from the first half of the year.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jim

Bernie Isn’t (that) Crazy.

Alice Cooper called it.  “School’s out, for summer.”  But, soon, Rodney Dangerfield and others will return.  “Hey, I am going back to school!”  And, when they do they need to bring their checkbook, and then some.

No one disputes the following.  One, the cost of a four year public college/university education in these 50 United States has spiraled out of control.  And, two, the debt that undergraduates and post graduates have incurred is huge at 1.6 trillion dollars and mounting by the moment.

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and a few others have led or joined the battle cry to make college tuition free and/or forgive the outstanding student debt.  Each plan to do so essentially redistributes wealth from taxpayers to students and is fraught with inconsistencies.  More later.

But now, we ask, have you ever heard of Sallie Mae?  SLM Corporation (commonly known as Sallie Mae; originally the Student Loan Marketing Association) is a publicly traded U.S. company that provides consumer banking loans.   Its structure has changed dramatically since it was set up in 1973.   At first, it was a government entity that serviced federal education loans. It then became private in 2004 and started offering private student loans.

The company’s primary business is originating, servicing, and collecting private education loans.  Sallie Mae previously originated federally guaranteed student loans originated under the Federal Family Education Loan Program and worked as a servicer and collector of federal student loans on behalf of the Department of Education. 

So, the U.S. government started Sallie Mae.  It then decided the task too tall for itself and allowed it to privatize.  And it’s now government workers who are crying loudest about the soaring student debt.   And, they should.

We took a peak at Sallie Mae’s (now Navient Corporation, the largest servicer of federal student loans and collector on behalf of the U.S. Dept of Education) “generous” loan offers and terms there of last evening.  What’s our conclusion?  You might as well charge your education on your Visa or MasterCard.

Navient loans offered today start at a 7.5% interest rate.  They are tied to a marker of interest rates known as LIBOR, plus 5%.  They are variable, can even change monthly up or down, and are allowed to float as high as 25% if the market so chooses.  That’s 25% as a high side risk!  Seven point five percent isn’t cheap to begin with.  Ford will give you zero percent financing for that new F150.  Sallie Mae and Uncle Sam want more, much more.

But it gets worse.  Let’s take a 40k dollar loan as an example.  You have three options to repay.  All start with paying either $25 bucks a month while still in school, or the interest accumulated each month of $233, or foregoing paying anything at all until you have completed your education.  Tick tock goes the interest clock from day one of course.  The choices are bad, poor, and terrible.

The structured repayment schedule over the course of the next dozen or so years costs about $500 a month at the 7.5% rate, and much more if rates rise.  The total interest is 29k on top of the 40k.   But, here is the kicker of all kickers.  There is no interest saved for paying down the principal in any accelerated manner.  There is no incentive/gain for attempting to get out of the debt.  Sign up and Sallie starts counting her coins.

There is no bankruptcy filing that exempts anyone from repaying either.  Federal laws are written to absolve you of debt incurred when you can no longer keep your head above water, except if that debt is owed to your government.  It’s the golden rule.  He who has the gold makes the rules.  Sallie collects the gold for he who makes the rules.

Making college free (and it wouldn’t be free, just paid by others) and forgiving debt (and that would just be adding to the federal debt that we all are accountable for as well) isn’t the answer.  No answer is that simple.  And no answer should only be for the selected ones who are in debt today or in school tomorrow.   It needs to be equitable.   For example, shouldn’t trade schools be “free” too?  You can’t discriminate for just colleges can you Elizabeth?

Their approach is a big band aid and is designed to garner votes from the young and naive.  The bandage needs to be ripped off of the whole mess and the root cause needs a vaccination.   Otherwise, many will continue to fall down, scrape their knees, and eventually the wound will get infected.   A great start to this would be to examine the ridiculous terms of Sallie Mae and others in this federal loan business for students.  If you didn’t save for college at least there should be an incentive to get out of debt sooner.

Maybe Crazy Bernie isn’t so crazy after all in attempting to address this.  It’s just how, not handouts, that need to be looked at and changed.  Start with Sallie Mae and others just like her.   And, like the $22 trillion dollar debt, and ballooning government, the sooner the better.

Bullish Anticipation

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Friends

Nothing like jumping the gun. Stocks rallied mightily today
on hopes that the Fed is going to begin to cut interest rates as soon as
tomorrow, and on a tweet from the President that he had spoken to Chinese President
Xi. Add in departing ECB head Draghi’s dovish statements and you have a
trifecta of positive events for the bulls to run with.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 353 points
to finish the day at 26,465. The S&P 500 was up 28 points to close at
2,917. Gold was up $6 to trade at $1,349 per ounce, while oil was up $2.17 to
trade at $54.09 per barrel WTI.

We’ll get the Fed decision tomorrow at 1:00 our time, and
then the Fed Chair’s press conference at 1:30. I would be surprised if the Fed
actually cuts interest rates tomorrow, but it appears the markets are hopeful.
I do think that the FOMC and the Fed Chair will try to make it clear that they
are ready to cut as soon as the July meeting, if the economic data warrants it.
But, he has to be careful not to cast fear that things are deteriorating so
quickly that the Fed has to come to the rescue.  We’ll find out if the
market is already pricing in that cut (it appears so), and what the reaction
will be if market participants/Fed watchers don’t get the cut or at least the
language they so dearly desire. Stay tuned, we’ll let you know how it all plays
out tomorrow.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Cashing In on Cashing Out

After taking two flights, and driving through four states, and staying eight days in three different hotels, our summer vacation ended all too soon.  Good times were had by all on food, golf, gifts, hikes, bikes, a baseball game, and the like.  So, it goes without saying that it was smart to get $300, just to be safe, out of the ATM before the journey and all of the festivities started.  Or, was it?

Eight days later just shy of $275 remained in my pocket.  Cash is king, you know.  Or, at least cash was once king.

So, it got our staff wondering last evening.  Will we see a cashless society in the future?  We think the answer is yes.  It’s when, not if.

And, why not?  Every merchant in brick and mortar and any merchant in the virtual world of any kind takes some or all of Visa, MasterCard, Amex, Discover, PayPal, Venmo, Chase Quick pay, etc.  And, everyone has two or more of these forms of payment in their pocket, purse, or mobile device.

Cards give you rewards or cash back.  Cash gives you pesky change back.  What do you do with your loose nickels and dimes?  Ours are in the console of the truck, or in the luggage that we carried.  Sometimes the dreaded pennies make it into the pocket and all of the way into the house.  Then what?  Then they go into the large jar on the top shelf.  We hope the shelf doesn’t crash down one day from the weight of the copper and silver.

It took America two or three generations to nearly stop smoking altogether.  It’ll took Uber and Lyft about a decade to obliterate the dreadful taxi industry.  How long before cash is all but gone?

About the only need for it is when you directly interact with another citizen in the moment.  A tip for for this, or a ticket scalped outside of a venue come to mind.  Little else does.

So when you cash out, who cashes in?  Visa, MasterCard and PayPal come to mind.   Their build out for electronic processing allows hundreds of thousands of transactions a minute placing them far ahead of rivals mentioned above.  A very recent Barron’s article quoted some industry experts that feel like the electronic processing will continue its percentage growth in the high teens yearly for the next five years and perhaps beyond.

Remember when Apple Pay was going to change the world?  Guess who Apple partnered with to facilitate what they could not?  It’s Visa and MasterCard.  It seems like they are everywhere you want them to be.

Business to business is next.  Cutting checks to pay vendors and such is getting cut by the day.  Who’s there to help?  Yep.  It’s the next big growth vehicle for them.

Banks charge merchants and businesses two or three percent for the privilege of accepting these forms of payment and get paid well to do so.   Consumers win (or at least feel like they do) with one or more percent cash and/or points earned coming back to them.

But the real winners?  Yep.  They collect what seems like a very slim 0.15% of each transaction.  Mere pennies on the dollar you say?  Their shelf is very sturdy.  It has to be.  They collect millions and millions of dollars of pennies every day.

Cash was king.   Visa and MasterCard sit on the highest thrones now.

Rumors, Reports, Rate Cuts?

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Friends

It’s amazing what moves stocks these days-both up and down.
Today stocks rallied on word that whatever tariffs were going to be initiated
next week on Mexican goods is being delayed for the moment. Stocks moving up
and down on tariff rumors is the world we live in now, but my goodness it all
seems amazingly goofy. Anyway, we trade the markets that we have, not the
markets that we think we should have.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial was up 181 points to
finish the day at 25,720. The S&P 500 was up 17 points to close at 2,843.
Gold was up $4 to trade at $1,338 per ounce, while oil was up $1.36 to trade at
$53.04 per barrel WTI.

The other thing buoying stocks these past few trading
sessions is the hope that the Fed is about to come to the rescue with rate
cuts. Tomorrow’s jobs report will either feed that narrative or put the brakes
on it. Good news might be bad news if the number is too good (remember the
expectations are the 185,000 new jobs were created in May). Of course, if the
jobs number is as bad as the ADP number was this week, what does that mean?
Yes, it fits the Fed rate cut narrative, but is weakening economic data what we
really want? Let’s see how tomorrow’s jobs number plays.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim