Stocks Resilient in the face of Headlines and Retail Sales

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

The stock market is showing some impressive resilience. The bears delivered a haymaker this morning in the form of a miserable retails sales number, which initially did send stocks lower (more than 250 Dow points), but those losses were erased by midday. As the afternoon wore on and headlines hit that the President was going to sign the spending bill and declare a state emergency, market participants stepped back and stocks drifted lower into the close.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 103 points to finish the day at 25,439. The S&P 500 was down 7 points to close at 2,745. Gold was up $1 to trade at $1,315 per ounce, while oil was up $.63 to trade at $54.53 per barrel WTI.

Yes, we continue to straddle formidable resistance levels, but the bulls have to be encouraged that a lukewarm corporate earnings season and mixed economic data hasn’t put more pressure on stocks. Headlines move markets, but mostly are forgotten rather quickly. Economic data and corporate earnings are the true weighing apparatus of the markets. Let’s see how the week finishes out tomorrow.

Have a nice evening everyone.

 

Jim

The Market Likes Deals

  Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

 

 
JIM CARLTON

Managing Director
Chief Investment Officer

 

Friends

As old Monty Hall used to say “let’s make a deal”. A nice rally in stocks today was attributed to reports that a deal on the budget seems to have been reached (but not yet blessed by the President), and that there appears to be progress on a deal with China(of course, those tea leaves are next to impossible to trust). Nevertheless, the markets like deals, and more importantly, the more uncertainty that can be taken out of the situation, the better. Stocks got off to a good start this morning and were able to add to those gains as the trading session wore on.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 372 points to finish the day at 25,425. The S&P 500 was up 34 points to close at 2,744. Gold was up $2 to trade at $1,314 per ounce, while oil was up $.70 to trade at $53.11 per barrel WTI.

Again, stocks are bumping up against resistance, and both the bulls and the bears seem to be a bit on edge. If the bulls can push through, the bears will be left to play defense, which could actually push stocks even higher. On the other hand, if the bulls fail, the bears can claim the resistance held again and that a retest of December’s lows is still in the cards. Amazingly, stocks lost nearly 20% in less than 90 days last quarter, and have recaptured about two thirds of that in less than 45 days so far this year. Even the most ardent bulls have to be surprised by the power of this rally given the circumstances. Let’s see if the government deal gets done this week and if we can get that uncertainly behind us.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX  77380 

(281) 298-2700 Phone

(877) 824-4299 Toll Free

(281) 298-2760 Fax

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

 

 *Numbers and figures sourced from the following: Bloomberg.com, CNBC.com and Finance.Yahoo.com.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
CHJ Wealth Management, 10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340, The Woodlands, TX 77380

Money Matters Always Matter-Welcome Jim Carlton

Albert Einstein once said “the only source of knowledge is experience.”  At BBR we think that learning through reading and succeeding at higher levels of education help too.  The opportunity, when you combine education and experience in a chosen field, is great.  And ultimately success then can be measured in how effectively you help others.

BBR feels quite confident that we have found someone in the world of personal finance that can do just that.  His macro view of the marketplace is derived from 34 years of dedication to his craft.  He takes the complex and makes it simple.  Great money management removes the emotion from the moment and grounds it in time-tested logic. He does that as well.

So, it’s with pleasure that we announce to you that Jim Carlton, Managing Director of Carlton, Hofferkamp, and Jenks, has agreed to share his market commentary with us.

With over 34 years investment experience, Jim began his career as a Financial Consultant with Merrill Lynch and Stifel Nicolaus in St. Louis. Later he became Chief Investment Officer for Clayton Asset Management and Clayton Equity Partners hedge fund. He joined Sterling Bank in 2001 and became a Senior Vice President and Manager of Sterling Bank’s Private Client Services. Today, of course, he serves as Managing Director and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Carlton, Hofferkamp and Jenks Wealth Management.

Jim has been nationally recognized for outstanding customer service and productivity and has been named a Five Star Wealth Manager ranking him in the top 2% of investment advisors in overall client satisfaction.

Benjamin Graham said  “Investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.”  Jim feels that this quote sums up his own philosophy quite nicely.  

When we post his after market recap of the day it will be on this site by 4pm CST that same day at the latest.  So if you want to be in the know now in the world of money, go directly to the site in the late afternoon.

Subscribers will continue to only receive one email notification daily of all posts at 9am.  Therefore, you won’t get a given day’s market commentary link until that next morning.  Twitter and Facebook followers get notified at the actual time of any posts.  If we have managed to confuse you, please comment below and we can clarify it further for you.

We know that this new, regular boomboomsroom.com feature will further your understanding of the investment world.  Look for this feature to begin late this week.

Welcome aboard Jim.

 

DISCLAIMER- Jim Carlton’s commentary is his view only.    It is not necessarily the view of any BBR staff member or its ownership.  Markets can change rapidly.   Any personal finance decisions you make are your own.  Also, his posts are not a solicitation for business.

Boom Boom’s Life Lessons #9

Did you participate in the mad dash for your cash called Black Friday?  In today’s world you can “save” money without out even getting in the car.   Retailers provide brick and mortar locations and virtual locations to entice you.

For your sanity we hope that if you did it did not involve any time on Thanksgiving Day itself, or waiting in line for a store to open, or a swift elbow to the ribs around a “sale” table, or a parking lot demolition derby.  If you did venture out, did you get what you needed?  Or, did you get what you wanted?

Apparently “The Dixie” only wanted, but did not need, a paint job.

Boom Boom directed the Purchasing Dept. for much of his 32 year career at Dixie Machine Welding and Metal Works.  He called it “The Dixie.”  If The Dixie was buying something, anything, his name was on the purchase order eventually.  He asked all who worked for him, “do we need this, or do we want it?”

Naturally this mantra permeated our family life.  If you asked for something, he asked “is this a need, or a want?”  If you didn’t answer correctly you had no shot of getting what you needed or wanted.  If you did answer correctly “wants” often went wanting.  In the mid seventies I wanted a pair of Adidas basketball shoes.  They sure looked like they could make me run faster and jump higher.  “Your Converse basketball shoes are fine.  You don’t need new shoes.  What are you going to do with two pairs of shoes that serve the same purpose?”

I suppose his upbringing through the Great Depression might have driven this careful thinking like other words of wisdom that he lived by and shared often.  Perhaps more people should live by them as well.  A recent survey details the utter failure of a prosperous generation of baby boomers to save enough money to afford retirement, much less enjoy it.  The survey details that an astonishing 80% of Americans aged 55 to 71 have not saved enough to retire.

In short, they “want” to retire, but they “need” to work.  The sooner one learns the want v. need lesson the better.

 

 

 

Do Money Matters Make You Squeamish?

squeam·ish
/ˈskwēmiSH/
adjective(of a person) easily made to feel sick, faint, or disgusted, especially by unpleasant images.
We understand.  Money, Budgeting, Finances, Stocks, Bonds, IRA’s, 401k’s, College Saving, Retirement Planning, and Estate Planning, etc. isn’t everyone’s longest suit.  But, it is very important to everyone and their loved ones.  The boomboomsroom.com staff shares your uneasiness.
If you had a bad toothache what would you do?  You would, of course, go to the dentist.  He or she is a professional.  Well, wouldn’t your cure for the money aches be the same?
ad·vis·er
/ədˈvīzər/
noun
noun: advisor
a person who gives advice, typically someone who is expert in a particular field.

A professional financial advisor can provide a smooth path towards your realistic goals.  Their broader view than our tunnel vision can be the calm in the storm of the many ups and downs of the financial journey.

We are pleased to tease today that starting roughly November 1 we will have a seasoned professional delivering  market commentary and a long-term view of what it all means three days each week, or as often as the market directs us.
We can tell you that it will be a quick and easily understandable read.
We hope that you will enjoy and benefit from this new feature.

No One Out Pizzas The Hut. Or Do They?

Do you like pizza?  Of course you do.  Pizza is as American as hot dogs, apple pie, and Chevrolet.  Sales have been growing like a rising crust for nearly three decades as more companies found more ways to serve you a pie.  Except one.  Pizza Hut.

Pizza Hut has been the king of the biz.   It’s been the number one market share pizza company for decades.  Long live the king.  Below is how the American scoreboard tallied entering 2017.

  1. Pizza Hut – $5.8 billion in total sales
  2. Domino’s – $5.3 billion
  3. Little Caesars Pizza – $3.7 billion
  4. Papa John’s Pizza – $2.9 billion
  5. Chuck E. Cheese’s – $885.2 million
  6. Papa Murphy’s Take ‘N’ Bake Pizza – $884.8 million
  7. California Pizza Kitchen – $657.4 million
  8. Marco’s Pizza – $488.9 million
  9. Cicis – $449.7 million
  10. Round Table Pizza – $442.6 million

In 2017 that long reign ended.  Domino’s took over as the market share leader late in 2017.  Domino’s slice of the U.S. pie is now estimated at 14.2% to Pizza Hut’s 14.1%.

A quick 23 years ago, in 1995, Pizza Hut had 25% of the fast food pizza market, compared to Domino’s 11% and Papa John’s 2.2%.  

Regardless of the category those who see the need and introduce the category (as well as their products to service that need) usually maintain a stranglehold on the number one position.   Or, sometimes the category grows so much, they might be in a dogfight to keep it, but their sales are growing rapidly side by side others.  The Coca Cola Co. and Pepsi Co. fit that description.

But not Pizza Hut.  How they have allowed their dominate market share position to fall this far is worth an entire semester of a business graduate school’s attention.

Making a pizza from scratch is a lot like running a company.  A good dough forms a great crust as a base.  Pizza Hut thought they were in the retail store pizza business.  Domino’s decided that they could advertise nationally and deliver locally. Image result for pictures of dominos delivery Papa John’s followed that recipe shortly thereafter.  Pizza Hut had stores coast to coast before the first Domino’s delivered.   So much for a great base.  Pizza Hut failed to realize that they were in the pizza business not the retail store business.  Consumers evolve.  A Pizza Hut pizza and a movie at the theater became Domino’s at your door and a flat screen TV in your den.

What toppings would you like?  These are the features and benefits of your brand.   For your toppings you might like fast delivery of a warm pizza that you can order from Al Gore’s internet at a great price.  Fast, warm, internet, and price.  Sounds simple doesn’t it?  Actually if you listen carefully to consumers, it is.

Marianne Radley took over as Pizza Hut’s Brand Manager position last year.   One of her comments follows.

Some of the focus, she says, should be on improving the company’s use of data and consumer insights, and how it interacts with patrons. “We’re a company that’s stuck in a transaction mindset, and we need to pivot to a customer lifetime mindset,” says Radley.

Another approach that may please consumers is finding their favorite brand/style of pizza in the frozen food section of their grocery store.  But, there is no Hut inside the freezer either.  Whataburger, a burgeoning retail store hamburger chain based in Texas, has their brand name mustard, spicy mayo, ketchup, and frozen fries in a large grocery chain that trades in similar markets.  Why not?  It’s but one example of extending your reach.  PF. Chang’s has frozen meals in there as well.  There are many others.

And finally, and quite importantly, there is who you are in the eyes of your customer or your potential consumer.  Ms. Radley lays out the multiple missteps of the brand’s marketing in this Ad Age article quite well.  In it she states that Pizza Hut is actively looking for their sixth agency in about a dozen years.

She also wants to keep the current tag line, “No One Out Pizzas The Hut.”  There is just one problem.  Currently everyone does.