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Stressful Moment For Stocks

Posted on by Jim Carlton

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

JIM CARLTON
Managing Director
Chief Investment Officer

Friends

 

Despite some good earnings reports, such as the one delivered by Microsoft after the close yesterday, stocks just could not overcome the wave of disturbing news concerning the coronavirus continuing to blow up in the U.S. and Europe. Add to that, that this week saw the possibility of a stimulus deal before the election go out the window, and of course concerns over the election and possible political instability and stocks are really facing some headwinds.

 

For the day the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 943 points to close at 26,519. The S&P 500 was down 119 points to finish the day at 3,271. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 426 points to close at 11,004. Gold was down $33 to trade at $1,878 per ounce, while oil was down $2.28 to trade at $37.29 per barrel WTI.

 

Tomorrow, before the open we’ll get a look at 3rd quarter GDP and it’s expected to be a big number (30% plus). Then after the close we get earnings from the likes of Apple and Amazon. We are in a volatile moment for the markets, but it comes as no surprise. It’s part of process and we are prepared. Stay tuned.

 

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX  77380 
(281) 298-2700 Phone
(877) 824-4299 Toll Free
(281) 298-2760 Fax

[email protected]        www.chjwealthmanagement.com

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

*Numbers and figures sourced from the following: Bloomberg.com, CNBC.com and Finance.Yahoo.com.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

CHJ Wealth Management,
10200 Grogan’s Mill Road,
Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380

How Deep is the Deep State?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

We always try to give credit where credit is due.  Therefore, we often give credit to the Democratic Party for their aggressive and concerted messaging.  They assimilate a powerful script, dole out the talking points to the appropriate parties, and preach the point of view over and again.

They are masterful at making the Republican Party and the current president play defense again and again.  Trump is offensive, but it’s hard to be on offense when you are always playing defense.

The Russian collusion narrative played to an interested national audience for two years.  But, it’s ending disappointed many.  And now, suddenly, two weeks before the national elections it looks like the script may have flipped.

Lo and behold, it looks like the Hunter is now being hunted.  The Hunter is Hunter Biden.  And, the bombshell revelations being gleaned from his abandoned laptop hard drive is only act one.  Email after email being released, and many more are to come this week, seem to have untidily linked his Ukrainian Burisma Board of Directors lofty position as well as his position with the Chinese company as nothing more than a pay for government influence storefront.

One even alludes to holding 10% of the payment for “the big guy.”  The big guy is all but identified as one former VP of the US, Joe Biden.  “Biden” or “Buyden” some are asking on Twitter, but we digress.

Some that are also asking are John Ratcliffe, Director of National Intelligence, Rudy Guliani, a Trump advisor and personal attorney, and this AM also Senator Ron Johnson.  Johnson is actually asking for the FBI to release the file on this that they supposedly have had and held on to quietly since November of 2019 a full two months prior to the House impeaching Trump on, of all things, collusion claims.  Ironic somewhat?

What does the Biden family have to say about this?  So far Joe Biden has 1) called it a smear campaign, then 2) walked off mid-question from the reporter last evening who attempted to ask about it.  Late last night he pulled the shade down on his campaign till Thursday calling a “lid” till then.   Hunter apparently is down in some basement, like father like son, somewhere we presume.  Wouldn’t he come forward and vigorously defend his father?  Shouldn’t he?

The Biden camp has said some of the emails and conversations held might be accurate.  They further hinted that Joe might have met in an informal manner with some foreign officials embroiled in this.   Where there is smoke there is at a minimum more smoke.  Fire?  Hmmm.

What did the New York Times say in its Sunday edition about the story that its rival the New York Post broke?  Ever the environmentally friendly organization, they spared the trees as not one syllable was typeset on any of its pages.

Facebook and Twitter have severely limited the story’s spread citing “hacked” information, or “unverified” political attacks as the reason.   Adam Schiff went on a Sunday talk show and said with a straight face, “this story is more evidence of the Russian influence in our election.”

Presumably, Biden is using the downtime rehearsing all of his lines and talking points for Thursday night’s final Presidential Debate.   He better have a few good ones for this exploding story.  Surely this will be front and center then?  Or does he need them?

Kristen Welker, the lone moderator for the debate has deep Democratic Party ties.  Welker comes from an established Democratic family who has poured cash into party coffers, and to Trump opponents, for years.  In March 2016 Welker was busted on live television tipping off Hillary Clinton’s Communications Director Jennifer Palmieri about at least one question she planned to ask her during a post-debate interview in Michigan.

Could the VP of the US have directly profited by his position as the liaison for China and Ukraine under Obama with a big assist from his son?

Do you believe that there was a second gunman behind the grassy knoll in Dealey Plaza when Kennedy was shot?

How smarmy is the swamp?

How deep is the deep state?

 

Don’t Worry, Be Happy

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Have you noticed a change in the demeanor of President Trump in the last week?  We have, and it’s been remarkable.

Put simply, he seems happier.  He seems more upbeat.  He seems to have more bounce in his step.

If our perception is correct, the obvious question is “why the change?”  We speculate on the answer, or really the answers below.  Maybe it has to do with a doctor, or really a bevy of doctors.

The first doctor that might have stepped forward to help was the RNC spin doctor.  The diagnosis of Trump had to be bleak.  Even the best spin doctor could not have delivered a positive test result on his first debate performance against Joe Biden.

Trump’s egotistical.  He’s narcissistic.  He’s hard-headed.  But did someone in his camp finally breakthrough, at least in the short run, and tell him that the nastiness and combativeness weren’t playing well through the TV back in Peoria?

The second doctor told him that he had bad news and good news.  The bad news was that he was COVID-19 positive.  The good news was that if he took all of the cocktail mix of drugs available to him that he would make a quick recovery.  He did and he did.  Was Trump reflective at 73 about his health and had a moment that said, life is good in spite of all of the jackasses in the party that uses a jackass for its logo constantly getting in his way?

Did the third doctor, maybe an accomplished doctor in one of the business disciplines, tell him to not worry about the polls showing Biden with a double-digit lead?  Maybe the polls are doctored the way they were four years ago almost to the day?

Did the fourth doctor (she’s not a doctor, but is so smart that she could be a great one) provide in front of an amazed America and a befuddled Senate committee the exact elixir to run, not walk, onto the Supreme Court?  Amy Coney Barrett has far exceeded Trump’s high hopes for a smooth sail onto the highest court in the land.

Was the tie in with Hunter, China, Burisma, and Slow Joe by the suddenly uncovered emails (how long do you think Rudy Guliani has been sitting on them?) linking the “pay to play” just what the doctor ordered?

Maybe, just maybe, it was a combo of all five of the above.

Two nights ago, at a campaign stop in Florida, he danced a step or four to the closing YMCA song.  Last night he unknotted one of his signature red satin silk ties and tossed it into the crowd.  Are happy days here again?

Did he and his troupe decide that the campaign was too focused on all that is wrong with America?  Did he fall too far down the rabbit hole that the Dems have drug him down time and again with their unrelenting and effective attacks?

And, now, with time running out in the fourth quarter does he want to remind you that America is brave, strong, free, and will survive then thrive again?

Is the stark contrast of an old, ashen colored, masked Biden holding a rally with no one there versus Trump energetically bogeying to the Village People going to help the undecided decide in favor of the flawed incumbent?

Or, does he know something that we don’t?

Don’t worry, be happy.

 

 

Mormon? Moron? Senator? President? Where? Who?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Were you already working yesterday at 9 AM EST and missed the Amy Coney Barrett(ACB) Supreme Court Justice initial nomination proceedings?  Understandable.

That’s why BBR is here for you.  We watched and are pleased to bring to you a quick recap below summarizing what took place.

Nothing.  That right, absolutely nothing.

ACB (no relation whatsoever to AOC) sat prim and proper, mask perfectly in place, and listened to Senate committee members bloviate for five minutes at a time.

Each Republican extolled her credentials, and that list is long and unopposed on the merits.

Each Democrat talked about how the world is ending due to Trump, COVID-19, his poor response to COVID-19, how great the Affordable Care Act(ACA) is/was, and how “Trump the Terrible” was going to take it away along with your chance at surviving this pandemic much less even a common cold.

We give the Democrats credit again.  Even when they have an empty hand they press on as if they have pocket aces.

They know at least four things.  One, ACB is a shoo-in.  Her credentials are impeccable.  Two, the Republicans have the votes to confirm her no matter what they say or do.  Three, therefore, when you have “free” air time use it to you and your party’s advantage.  And four, the road to the White House is paved by running over Trump and then backing up over him again and again.

They’ve been driving that bus since the days before he took office in 2016.  It’s accelerated when they realized Joe Biden is nothing more than a 77-year-old who wears Aviator sunglasses and stumbles through one teleprompter aided speech after the other in his quest to become Senator.

Senator?  Well, that’s what he said yesterday.  He also called Mitt Romney  “that Senator who is a Mormon.”  Well, that beats getting called “that Senator who is a moron,” which, while appropriate, might be insensitive in today’s word, but we digress.  He also tweeted out that he was campaigning in Pennsylvania while he was in Ohio.  And, finally, he directed folks at a “rally”(all 15 of them in person) to a website that doesn’t exist.

It’s all in a day’s work for the assumed frontrunner for President (not Senate) of the United States.

It’s no wonder that the Democrats are putting in extra work to tear Trump down while ACB gets appointed to the highest court in the land.

That former Senator from New Hampshire, um, Delaware, um somewhere, Joe Biden might win election to the highest office in the land.  He’s just not sure where that is, nor what it is.

2020.

 

The D.C. Boomerang

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Have you ever thrown a boomerang?  Rumor has it that if you throw it just right it’ll come back to you.

Shortly after the 2016 presidential election it now looks like one may have been thrown so hard and far on Capitol Hill that it’s just now making its way back to its rightful owner.

You remember back then Donald Trump, labeled Putin’s puppet by a few Democrats, was accused of colluding with the Russians to tilt the election in his favor.  And, quickly, right after Jeff Sessions recused himself as Attorney General, the Russia collusion investigation took flight.

On May 17, 2017, Robert Mueller was appointed by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein as special counsel overseeing an investigation into allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and related matters.  The “and related matters” language is like having a blank check.  You can wander into a lot of file cabinets, subpoenas, and personal computing devices when you are investigating “related matters.”

And the investigation did wander as it wondered.  It wandered for 22 months.  We learned that “Crossfire Hurricane” was the code name for the FBI investigation into the Russian interference.    We learned that Michael Cohen didn’t pay his taxes.  He’s in jail now.  We even learned about porn star Stormy Daniels.  Her lawyer, Michael Avenatti, was famous for fifteen minutes, too.  He’s in jail now as well.  He faces numerous counts of fraud and extortion.  That’s how far the investigation wandered as part of that “related matters” opportunity it was afforded.

House Judicial Committee leader Adam Schiff appeared on CNN, Meet the Depressed, and MSNBC roughly 201 times stating “we now have direct evidence linking Trump to the Russians.”   CNN, Meet the Depressed, and MSNBC commentators then repeated roughly 2001 times “there is direct evidence linking Trump to the Russians.”  It’s what all well-trained parrots do.

Only, there was no direct evidence.  After a bevy of witnesses paraded before Shiff and his minions, Robert Mueller himself appeared and told them himself that there was no link.  Well, he really said, “that is beyond my purview” roughly 20,001 times, but we digress.  And, poof went the two-year waste of time and money balloon.

And with that, the Ukraine phone call took center stage.

So whatever happened to that pesky Russian collusion problem?  It looks like the boomerang turned for home yesterday.

Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe on Tuesday declassified documents revealing that former CIA Director John Brennan had briefed former President Obama on Hillary Clinton’s plan to tie then-candidate Donald Trump to Russia — as “a means of distracting the public from her use of a private email server.”  Whoopsie do!

The “foreign policy adviser” who allegedly proposed “vilify[ing] Donald Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by Russian security services “was Jake Sullivan, now a top Biden aide.” Hillary OK’d his proposal on July 26, 2016, just days before the FBI opened the probe.  Whoopsie do do!

House Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jim Jordan (R-OH) tweeted Tuesday: “We now know that John Brennan and Hillary Clinton conjured up the phony Russian hoax with the Obama/Biden Administration to distract Americans from the Clinton email scandal. The witch hunt was worse than we ever thought!”

And with that, the boomerang is rapidly heading back to those who originally launched it perhaps.

A wise man opined years ago that if you want to know what one side is doing listen to what they are accusing the other side of doing and you’ll know.  He was right.

It’s about power.  It’s always about power.  So, what becomes of all of this power grab sabotage?  That answer likely depends on who assumes power in the White House and on Capitol Hill in January.

After all, not all boomerangs are made to return.  Some are used for (witch) hunting.

 

 

 

 

 

Debating the Winners and Losers

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

So, who won the debate last night you ask?  We’d like to ask the question differently.  Who lost?  America.

So, you persist.  Who won the debate, you ask again.  We are at least willing to narrow it down to two people.  We have some obvious clues.

We think the winner was an old white angry male who hurled insults, lies, and zingers before, during, and after his allotted time.  The question is, was it the some of the time “interrupter” or the all of the time “interrupter?”

Spanish speaking broadcaster Telemundo asked it’s viewers an hour after the debate.  Those that hadn’t turned off the TV midway through the donnybrook, nor after it mercifully ended, nor took Pepto Bismal actually selected Trump by a wide 66-34% margin.

The score has little practical meaning, partly because Telemundo’s respondents were not a scientific sample and may have been organized themselves to skew the results.

In 2016, for example, “Hillary Clinton was deemed the winner of Monday night’s debate by 62% of voters who tuned in to watch, while just 27% said they thought Donald Trump had the better night,” according to a CNN poll of voters who watched the debate.  All that proved was who watches CNN.

In 2020, that same instant poll last evening has Joe Biden the winner by a 60-28% margin.  All that proved was who still watches CNN.

Moderator Chris Wallace had to feel like he was herding cats.  But, that stopped neither side’s supporters from criticizing him.

At one point the sometimes interrupter Biden exclaimed, “What was the question? I can’t remember because of all his rambling.”   Wallace retorted, “I’m having some trouble myself.”  And the left screamed that Wallace needed to regain control.

A bit earlier the incessant interrupter Trump spared with Wallace when questioned over the lack of a health care plan.   “First of all, I guess I’m debating you, not him, but that’s okay, I’m not surprised.”  And the right tweeted all night that Wallace was very left minded in his 90-minute task.

That task must have felt like trying to put the toothpaste back in the tube.

So how is a debate winner actually determined?  Ultimately, it’s by how many undecided voters or opponents voters they swayed with their performance.

What was said took a back seat to how it was said for the most part.  Policy, principle, and vision took a back seat to uppercuts, sucker punches, and low blows.

Because of that, we strongly doubt that any MAGA’s or never Trumpers were so moved.

How about the undecided?  Who, in this unraveled, strongly divided country, is undecided?

Our call?  Wallace lost. He had no chance.  Trump didn’t convert anyone.  He missed a chance.  Biden held serve.  He needs to stay upright twice more.

And, America took it on the chin yet again in 2020.

 

The Gamble

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It was way back in 1978 when Kenny Rogers was singing and Democrat Jimmy Carter was President.

Rogers song, The Gambler, advised us to know when to hold ’em, and know when to fold ’em.   Carter advised us to raise our thermostats to 78 degrees to help overcome the global oil supply shortage caused for the most part by the Iranian Revolution.

Carter misread his hand and the American people as well.  America wanted a solution to the problem, not a bandaid.  Ronald Reagan steamrolled Carter in the 1980 election.

And now we wonder if the Democrats are overplaying their hand in their effort to remind us of all that is wrong with America today, and blame it all on wretched Donald Trump.

If you believe the polls, it’s working.  Biden is leading Trump in the overall likely popular vote and in several key electoral college swing states.  If you believed the polls in 2016 Hillary Rodham Clinton was doing the same.

But if you believe the recent polling data on a few key issues, you might wonder if they are doubling down on the wrong hands.

The first was the “defund the police” cries from the citizens and woke mayors going along with city budgets aimed at doing the same.  Polls told the Dems that this was a no-no and even Joe Biden realized that he needed to get out of the basement to speak against it.  But, some damage surely was done.  Police unions nationwide agree.

The more recent was Jerry Nadler speaking out loud about what the Dems should do if the Senate Republicans approve Amy Coney Barrett and then the Dems reclaimed the Senate in November.  Nadler’s handlers tweeted under his name, “Filling the SCOTUS vacancy during a lame-duck session is undemocratic and a clear violation of the public trust in elected officials. Congress would have to act and expanding the court would be the right place to start.”  If you don’t like the game, then change the rules.

Pack the court he screams.  But a proposed “Keep Nine” amendment popped up last week.  It’s objective is in its name.   A survey, conducted by McLaughlin and Associates from Sept 23 – 27 among 1,000 registered, likely voters, found that 62 percent favor the amendment, as opposed to the 18 percent who do not.  Oops!

And, lastly, a mom of seven with a sterling bench record, a strong constitutionalist view, and an even stronger belief in her Catholic faith is about to get grilled by Senate Dems over those very beliefs.  But a Scott Rasmussen poll might give them pause.  The poll found that 37 percent of voters favor Barrett’s confirmation by the United States Senate, while 30 percent oppose her confirmation, for a net approval of plus seven for confirmation. Thirty-three percent were undecided.

It should give them pause, but it won’t.  The grilling will be bigger than a Nadler barbeque.

Polls, polls, polls.

The only one that ultimately matters is the November 3rd election day polling booth.  Well, actually you can mail it in before, during, and after as well, but we digress.

Are the Dems reading the cards right?  How loud will the so-called “silent majority” sing?

“You gotta know when to walk away, and know when to run.”

 

Peek a Boo

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Driving over 3000 miles in four days gave us plenty of windshield time to see it more clearly.  But, to see it more clearly you need to close your eyes.  No peaking.  Ready?

Pretend that you had absolutely no idea who Joe Biden was running against for the highest office in the land, and therefore, in the world.  Would you vote for him?  Eliminate your emotions of the moment.  You’ve had it with COVID-19.  You’ve had it with Trump you say?  You just cheated.  Remember, you have to play along and pretend that you have no idea who the current President is.

Try once more.  And, when you do honestly ask yourself if you can mail in, write in, pull the lever for a man that his own party is hiding.  Can you vote for a man who actually cannot even read from a teleprompter without messing it up and then telling you he is reading his lines?

Further, he’s a career-long politician telling you what’s wrong with government and that he’ll fix it.  He’s been at it for almost a half a century.  How long does it take? America cast aside Bush, Rubio, Graham, Romney, and Sanders before it pushed Hillary out of the door four years ago.  Do you want to go back to the future?

What is Biden running on?  Besides fumes, it’s “here’s what’s wrong with Trump.”  It’s not what’s right with him.  He’s flip-flopped more times in his political career that Jimmy Buffet has worn a pair.

If you still say yes we think you cheated again in our pretend test.

It must be because you hate Trump.  It has to be.  Don’t feel bad, he gives you plenty of reasons to hate him.  His demeanor and loose tongue are but two.  And, he was/is lost at times trying to guide the country through the ongoing pandemic.  Although given the medical community’s ever-changing advice, maybe we all were/are lost.

But what if?  What if you judged him on his accomplishments?  Do actions speak louder than words?

If they do, he’s done a bunch of good all the while having the other side of the aisle impede his every step, or impeach him altogether.  Pre COVID-19 was the economy great?  Was the lowest unemployment regardless of your gender or race since post-WW II good?  How many manufacturing jobs did we add?  Were his new trade agreements good for America?

Is his continual push to get China straight the right thing?  When he signed the “Three Strikes” program out of law was it a good step?  How quiet is Kim Jong Un?  He’s withdrawn tens of thousands of American troops from foreign soil.  ISIS, who?  And, now with his son in law running point, he’s forged agreements in the middle east the likes of which are previously unheard of.

Did you think he spent too much before the China virus sprung loose?  We did too.  Bush I, Bush 2, and Obama did too.  But, now is not the time to tighten.

Next Tuesday is the debate that will be heard (and watched) around the world.  Trump can’t wait to get into the ring.  The Democrats hope Biden can walk and not be carried out after 90 minutes.  That unto itself is telling.

It’s hard to hate Biden. You almost feel sorry for him.  It’s hard to like Trump.  He’s an acquired taste at best.

We asked above for you to pretend for a minute.  Is Biden capable of leading the U.S now, much less for the next four years?  What is the logical answer to the previous question?  It’s beyond obvious.

You can stop now.  Open your eyes.  Please.

 

Don’t Shoot the Messenger.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Any sophomore student majoring in communication can tell you that there are many parts that need to work together for there to be good communication.  But, two of the most important are the message itself and the messenger who delivers it.

After all, it’s who is selling, what is being sold, and how.

The Movement was selling social justice, race equality, and police reform at the outset, just shortly after George Floyd perished in Minneapolis.  Some criminal behavior, when you look back on the outset of it probably could be understood or at least overlooked.  Emotions were running as hot as the fires that the protesters were setting.

Buring cars in March and spray painting walls in April seem like so long ago.  It seemed like the nation was listening then or at least trying to.

But, what good became of it?  The message seems lost now in the continued bad behavior of a few but of a few too many messengers.

How bad is it?

Rochester, New York, police officers have received permission to cover their name tags in an effort to avoid harassment from far-left protesters.

Rochester Police Chief La’Ron Singletary who is set to retire soon, approved the move after protesters targeted a number of officers who shouted out their home addresses, the names of their children and their schools, and made phone calls to their parents.

Bad.

As you know by now two LA police officers, sitting in their marked patrol car were targets of a seemingly random assassination attempt.

What else can you call it but an assassination attempt?  So, you might ask, “could it be totally unrelated to The Movement?”  “Don’t jump to conclusions,” you say?

The “jump to conclusions” ship sailed long ago.  What America sees on video suffices for judge and jury, unfortunately, today.

Bad became worse.

But worse was about to become the worst.

Word spread in the LA community of Compton of the attack and of where the officers were taken.  Outside of Lynwood Hospital “peaceful protesters” shouted, “we hope they die.”  They chose the up ramp to the emergency room to deliver the less than positive well wishes.  This blocked the path for other emergency transport vehicles and their very ill occupants, utterly unrelated to this crime, to quickly and safely enter the hospital.

Indeed, worse behavior became the worst behavior.

And with it, logic left the conversation once more, and perhaps forever.

The message has value.

But, the messengers have no values.

 

School Daze

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

America is back in school, be it virtual, part-time virtual, or full time in person.

We’ve been told to “follow the science” so many times in the last six months, though, that it seems like we never left school.  It might be wise to “follow the math” while we are back at it as well.

But, the teaching methods change as fast as The Movement moves.   It would be wise to keep up with the “new” science and “new” math.

Louisiana Tech went back to school and the university’s football team was following the old science quite well. Tech athletic director Tommy McClelland said that the Bulldogs had only one positive COVID-19 test in the three weeks before the Hurricane Laura as they huddled and studied together.

But, along came a bad storm, and the new science took a turn for the worse.

“It is obvious that the impact in our community a few weeks ago really sparked our significant increase in numbers,” McClelland said. “With 95 percent of our city losing power for days our student-athletes were forced to find places to stay, and some even had family from south Louisiana that came northward to stay with them. So many things that we were able to control for the month of August became out of our control.”

The count of positive tests within the team soared to 38 yesterday.  The season opener v. Baylor has been postponed, and likely will be canceled.

Seems like the science favors playing football and staying together based on the above.  Although the Big 10 and PAC 12 still seem to think otherwise.

Meanwhile, there is some new math out on the campaign trail.

A few new polls from both the national level and prime swing states indicate President Trump is outperforming his 2016 numbers among Latinos, and sits currently at the highest share of the demographic for Republicans since 2004. The trend has increased over the past week in two different polls.

The first, conducted by Emerson University found that in a head-to-head matchup, Trump was favored by 37 percent of Latinos, compared to 60 percent for Biden. Similarly, a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University has the commander-in-chief taking 36 percent of the Latino vote v 56 percent for Biden.   Both were taken shortly after the Republican Convention.

But their results closely mirror those found in a Pew Research study released in mid-August well before the convention.  At the time, Pew found that Trump polled at 35 v 63 for Biden.

35,36,37.

If accurate, the results do not bode well for Biden and Democrats. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received 66 percent support among Latino voters, compared to Trump’s 28 percent.  The drop-off in support, coupled with Trump’s populist appeals to blue-collar voters, was significant enough to deny Clinton victory in the electoral college.

Maybe the stay at home and/or work from home suburban moms will provide even more “new” math when they vote.  They’re getting an over their kids’ shoulder look at the two subjects daily via Al Gore’s internet.  And, they seem to be leaning Biden’s way in 2020 as they did for Trump in 2016.

The COVID-19 science and the 2020 election math are quite intertwined at a minimum, or a tangled mess if you prefer.

Biden’s and Trump’s GPAs are hanging in the balance.

The final exam is scheduled for November 3rd.