Science and Data Borders on Nonsense

To quote Mark Twain, “It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.”

Perhaps you felt that way when the Democrat-led House finally found what they needed to press on to impeachment of Donald Trump.  It was a “quid pro quo.”  Did you know what that was?  Or, did it send you to the Google search bar?  Worry not, it did for many of us.

Actually it did for too many of us.  That’s why suddenly in all of the interviews of Democratic House Intelligence members and all talking heads on MSNBC stopped using the phrase.  They started using the word “bribery” instead.  Why?  It’s because the Democrats polled the public and quickly realized it was more understandable, hence an easier sell.

The Democrats always poll the public.  It’s why they are so much better at controlling the narrative of the country than the Republicans.  The old, stodgy, white, know-it-all Republicans tell you what they think.  The Democrats tell you what you think.

Which brings us to COVID-19.  There isn’t a leader of a state that is slower to open than some of the rest that doesn’t begin his or her press conference with “we are following the science and the data.”  Clearly “science” and “data” are two words that resonate with America. They asked.  They know.  It sounds so logical why wouldn’t we follow?

Except there may be one little problem.  The White House Coronavirus Task Force response administrator, Dr. Debora Birx had a direct comment or two for Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  Apparently, in a two weeks ago task force meeting, Birx and others were frustrated with the CDC’s antiquated system for tracking virus data, which they worried was inflating some statistics — such as mortality rate and case count — by as much as 25 percent, according to four people present for the discussion or later briefed on it.

“There is nothing from the CDC that I can trust,” Birx reportedly said, according to two of the people present.

But that didn’t stop Dr. Birx in the last few days of separate interviews.  In the first she said that an earlier lockdown would not have helped to prevent the spread of the virus.  In a subsequent one she expressed concern that the weeks’ old lockdown was not having a positive effect in Washinton, DC., Chicago, or Los Angeles.

How about a little deductive reasoning?  If an earlier lockdown would not have helped and the current one isn’t, then why did we lockdown?  It must have been because of the science and the data?  The longer you “serve” as a government employee, especially if you have a white coat with your name embroidered on it, the more this makes sense we assume.  Having a scarf must help, too.

Finally, Birx worried aloud that “the fall could possibly bring the virus back as strong as ever.”  Coincidentally, last week, the Director of the National Hurricane Center said “this season’s storms could possibly be more numerous than last year.”  “Could possibly?”  That’s going out on a limb.

Georgia looked at the science and the data.  They said, “enough already.”  So far, so good.  Why?  No one is sure, but the answer must lie in the science and the data.

Meanwhile Trump has had it with the great state of North Carolina’s slow reopening.  In less than 100 days there is this little Republican National Convention of some interest scheduled in Charlotte.  On Monday, Governor Roy Cooper responded to Trump’s tweet, saying, “State health officials are working with the RNC and will review its plan as they make decisions about how to hold the convention in Charlotte. North Carolina is relying on data and science to protect our state’s public health and safety.”

Cooper got it backward.  He said “data and science.”  It’s “science and data.”  Maybe that’s why they are slower to open in NC than in Georgia.

The two states share a little border.  There must be some strong antiviral “stuff” on the Georgia side of that ever so thin state line.

We should ask Birx and the CDC to see what the science and the data tell us about it.

 

 

Your Body is a Temple

As America reopens we don’t seem so open with what we are willing to put into our bodies.

Is a vaccine around the corner?  Probably not, but a recent survey of Americans stated almost 50% would not want it injected into their bodies for fear of side effects.   Another reason cited was the concern that our government would be injecting a microchip along with the antibodies.

Meanwhile, speaking to reporters at the White House, President Trump revealed that he’s been taking a hydroxychloroquine pill daily for a week and a half, along with a dose of zinc. Shortly after the announcement, The Your World with Neil Cavuto anchor called the president’s remarks “stunning” and warned that the drug could kill certain individuals who consume it.

The "Great" Roger Ailes
The “Great” Roger Ailes

Trump objected to the rant and tweeted “@FoxNews is no longer the same. We miss the great Roger Ailes.  Looking for a new outlet!”  The great Roger Ailes’ body of work included a few workplace sexual harassment charges.   We digress.

Nancy Pelosi, head of one body of Congress weighed in as well.  CNN host Anderson Cooper asked, “Madam Speaker, what is your reaction to the president saying he is now taking hydroxychloroquine? Are you concerned?”  She tore up the president like an old speech.  “I would rather he not be taking something that has not been approved by the scientists, especially in his age group and in his, shall we say, weight group — morbidly obese they say.”

Pelosi knows a thing or two about putting drugs into one’s body.  It must be clear to her that botox is way safer than hydroxychloroquine.  It’s written all over her face.

In her home state, six of seven convicted sex offenders freed in Orange County, California, last month due to fears of the Chinese coronavirus crisis spreading in local jails have since been rearrested for violating their terms of release.  Most of them were taken back in for ridding their bodies of that pesky GPS tracking device.  You have to wonder if they would line up to get the vaccine.  The bright side is virus immunity.  The downside might be a tracking device.

Planned Parenthood leadership is screaming for more money during these #alonetogether times.  Seems like we may have been together during our alone time.  Maybe we are more open to what we put in our bodies?

And this morning Walmart reported first-quarter earnings.  They were impressive.  With revenue over $32 billion, they beat the Wall St estimates by over $1 billion in top-line sales.  Same-store sales were up by 10% percent.  Strong.  A Walmart spokesperson cited “considerable strength in food sales.”

At least we haven’t lost our appetite though it all.

 

A Nightmare Prop Bet

Yesterday we offered a couple of proposition bets on the NCAA playing or not this fall.  Today we offer a prop bet on the 11/3/20 election.

As #hidenbiden trends on Twitter, we have “Sleepy Joe” at plus $180 to actually NOT be the Democratic Pary’s nominee for President.  You bet $100 to win $180 that Biden goes home in August with his MyPillow.com pillow in hand.    The DNC has to fear, we repeat, has to fear that the sunset is near.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has delayed its convention a month, yet still plans to do it virtually.  Safety is the key they say.  Or, is it?  Why delay it a month if you aren’t physically attending to begin with?

There might have even been a glimpse into that thinking yesterday.  “First of all, our convention has to happen, because we are not officially nominating Joe Biden in order to take Donald Trump,” Xochitl Hinojosa, communications director for the DNC replied during an interview.  “So our convention is happening. There is business that has to happen.”

Or could her combo of words be a gaffe?  Hinojosa has yet to clarify her remarks.  It would be befitting of the party whose presumptive nominee spits out more gaffes daily than the Feds print money.

Take yesterday for example.   Please.  In just one video conference from Biden’s basement, he won the rare Triple Crown.  First, he needed off-camera prompting that he was on the air.  Two, he told the country that in this pandemic we have lost 85k jobs and millions of people.  “Millions of people,” he repeated.  “Millions of jobs,” he finished.  Finally, stammering, to complete the trifecta he forgot the name of one of his top medical advisers.  All three dreadful videos are captured in this article.

Just before Biden went into hiding all of his Democratic challengers obediently folded like some fine sheets made from Giza region cotton.  Crazy Bernie was the lone holdout.  But, he virtually conceded the race when he virtually conceded the race.  Sanders didn’t want to be President anyway.  He just likes to be Bernie for a while every four years.

Honestly, it was funny at the outset.  Now, it’s just said frankly.

He needs the best night’s sleep in the whole, wide world because a nightmare named Trump awaits.

Who will be the nominee if Biden is a no show? That’s a bet for another day to handicap.

For now, take “no Joe” for $100 to win $180.

 

 

 

Meet the New Press

Have you seen the selective edit of Bill Barr’s interview used by Chuck Todd on Sunday’s Meet the Press?  Yesterday, it was all of the (out)rage on conservative talk radio as well as on the Fox News Network.

And that, unfortunately, is exactly the point.  It’s already yesterday’s news.

As the Russian Collusion, Mueller Investigation, and Impeach Trump continues to fall further apart and the heat from the AG is now on the those that brought the, umm, Trumped-up charges both sides have predictably dug in once again.

No less than former President Barack Obama came out to weigh in on this heavyweight fight.  He, oh so elegantly, worried that this possible pardoning of General Flynn was a subordination of the rule of law.  Adam Schiff said that is would set the Justice Department’s credibility back 50 years to the Watergate era.  Should Schiff be the one talking about credibility?  We digress.

NBC, so regretful of their national broadcast error, said in a tweet written by no one you know that it regretted the inadvertent editing.  If you watched the show, but don’t have a Twitter account that follows NBC News, you would not ever see the insufficient regret.

President Trump, acting like a former TV star of The Apprentice called for Todd to be fired.  But, he added that he knew that he wouldn’t be.  And, that too is exactly the point.

In today’s fractured nation, both sides immediately line up behind their political preference, truth and principles be dammed.  If you don’t believe that ask either Tara Reade or the dumbfounded #metoo members.

The result, or possibly the cause as well, is that anything and everything can now be said with little to no fear of reprisal.  Journalism, as it was once known, is no longer.  Chuck Todd knowingly deleted the last two sentences of Barr’s response to support his narrative and knew beforehand that he had cover to do it.

In yesteryear, editors checked and rechecked material for accuracy before it was written or spoken.  Two sources on everything was mandatory.  Quotes were painstakingly quoted word for word.  Credibility was cherished and was the long term goal.

No more.  Now, the goal is twofold.  The first goal enables the second goal.  The first goal is ratings.  If you have ratings the ad revenue streams in.  Everyone gets fed.  Want to get fed?  Feed the base that you appeal to some red meat.   If you don’t have ratings you don’t have a show.

If Chuck Todd couldn’t carry the ball for Meet the Press he would have met the NBC human resource team just before being escorted out of the door long ago.  Today you don’t get fired for misspeaking, inaccuracy, inadvertent omissions, inadvertent misquotes, or outright lying (Brian Williams).  You can get fired if you sexually harass your makeup artist (Chis Matthews) or frequent contributors (Bill O’Reilly).  And you will get fired if your ratings don’t produce enough ad money for the time slot you compete in.

With a divided country you can almost say anything you want.  Why? Because soon you will be yesterday’s news.  And in today’s journalistic world apparently that is a good thing.

All Quiet As Investors Monitor Reopenings

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends
It was a pretty quiet trading day with mixed results. Nasdaq keeps pushing towards previous highs led by the likes of Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Netflix and Facebook, but many other areas of the market are struggling. The Dow traded down a couple of hundred points at the open, but recovered by midday, only to drift lower by the close. It appears that market participants are just waiting to see how the reopening of the country goes both medically and economically.
For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 109 points to finish the day at 24,221. The S&P 500 was up a fraction to close at 2,930. Gold was down $14 to trade at $1,699 per ounce, while oil was down $.09 to trade at $24.65 per barrel WTI.
As mentioned, we are all curious as to how the big “reopening” will go. Will there be a spike in COVID-19 cases? Will the summer heat help snuff out the virus? How close are therapeutic drugs and vaccines? Are folks comfortable enough to go to restaurants, go shopping, take a flight, go to Vegas, and yes, even take a cruise? The economic and medical scenarios are endless. It truly is a moment when we just have to wait and see.
Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Made in America?

On June 12, 1987, United States President Ronald Reagan delivered a speech in West Berlin.  He was less than 100 yards from the Berlin Wall.   Reagan called for the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, to open the Berlin Wall, which had separated West and East Berlin since 1961.  “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”  Though it received relatively little media coverage at the time, it became widely known in 1989 after the fall of the Berlin Wall.  There is significant debate as to how much influence if any, the speech had on the wall coming down.  But in 1989 down it came as did communist rule and/or occupation in several eastern European countries in addition to the then Soviet Union, now Russia.

There isn’t much debate at all about the influence Donald J. Trump has had in getting a taller and wider wall built on the southern border of the U.S.  Over 125 miles are completed and by winter the guess is that nearly 500 miles will be hoisted.

Reagan wanted to unravel Soviet block countries.  Trump wants to block illegal immigration.  Both walls were or are steeped in controversy and divided opinions.

But the U.S. opinion should not be divided on two other walls.  One is The Great Wall of China and the other is the virtual firewall of the world wide web.

As U.S. companies figuratively lept over the Great Wall to take advantage of cheap Chinese labor to make and eager Chinese consumers to, well, consume U.S. products a bad thing happened.  We lost sight of right from wrong all because all we could see is the almighty dollar, and lots of them.

Forgetting for a minute of how horrifically the Chinese tyrants treat their people day in and day out, focus on the last 180 days.

China either leaked a virus out of a lab or didn’t.  Investigations, in spite of the World Health Organization(WHO), are ongoing.  Regardless, does anyone think that the virus didn’t start in China somehow? China is accused of asking the WHO in January to deny that human to human transmission could occur.  Further, they restricted travel from the Wuhan Provence to other areas of China but not to the rest of the world as the virus spread rapidly around the globe.

They recently revised the cases and deaths in the country, increasing both totals by an even 50%.   Oops, maybe a rounding error was uncovered.  Some medial experts put the actual carnage at 5x to 10x their count.

Yesterday news broke that the FBI is now investigating China as it’s feared that they have continued their widespread hacking of virtual walls.  Except this time it’s even worse.  Now they are trying to hack into pharma company computers to steal the vaccination research being done on the very virus that they let out of the lab or the soup.

Like him or hate him(and apparently there is no in-between), Trump has been telling us over and over again that China manipulates their currency, profits unfairly on trade deals, and conducts cyber-attack after attack.

Perhaps it’s time we listen closely, learn fast, and plan accordingly.

We’re in far too deep with a country that is doing everything that others did that we hated just 30 years ago.   Somehow we chose to close our eyes.

What are we going to do about it? And, when?  Soon isn’t soon enough.

“Made in America” sounds good.  “Not made in China” sounds essential.

 

The NYT Said So.

You’ve heard of Tara Reade by now, haven’t you?  Reade has leveled serious sexual assault allegations against Joe Biden.  She was a former Congressional staff member of his and claims that he assaulted her back in 1993.

In recent weeks her willingness to amplify the claim has gained some steam as a video of her mother calling into the CNN Larry King show back then with a veiled accusation that fits the allegation and timing has surfaced.  Additionally, a couple of her friends have spoken on the record saying that Reade extemporaneously confided in them about the incident back then.  She has even asked Biden to release all of his files from that time period.

The Trump labeled “failing” New York Times investigated and wrote an extensive piece on it.  Their conclusion?  They found no evidence that Biden had done any such thing.  Wonders never cease.

And, now it just got more serious.  The Trump labeled “fake news” CNN devoted a total of 14 minutes and 54 seconds of air time to the developing story so far.  That’s 15 minutes and 54 seconds more air time than ABC and NBC combined have spent on it.  And, it’s 13 minutes and 51 seconds more than CBS has spent on it as well.  But, it’s gaining oxygen.

The DNC circulated talking points on the accusation to operatives weeks ago.

Stacey Abrams, who lost a race for Governor of Georgia, used them by the book last evening.  On CNN’s Don Lemon show she said that every woman needs to be heard.  She said every allegation needs to be investigated, and that the NYT did so, and that they found nothing.  She said that she believes in Joe Biden.  She said, she said, she said.  She didn’t say that she is or wants to be on a shortlist for his VP nominee.  But, she either is or wants to be.

Hillary Clinton, no stranger to knowing people who have been accused of unwanted advances outside of marriage, endorsed “maybe not so sleepy back then” Joe Biden just yesterday.  She believes women should be heard and should come forward.  Jennifer Flowers, who she labeled as a “bimbo,” would be one exception.  It seems like Ms. Reade is at least the second one.

#metoo is #mia.

Does the DNC care?  Sure it does.  It went all-in on Joe Biden as the most likely candidate to defeat Trump.  That is the entire objective regardless of who gets to call the White House home.  Don’t believe that?  Ask Bernie and a host of minions that fell in line behind Joe as the nomination process’ orchestrated collapse went down with an assist from the enemy that no one can see.

Congress cannot investigate Biden on this as he isn’t in public office.   But the police can.  Reade filed a report last week in DC about the 1993 alleged incident.

If Congress could, would it be as diligent as they were for Judge Kavanaugh?  Christine Blasey Ford had to be believed a host of Democrats said.    Blasey Ford was labeled as courageous.  As of now, no one from the left has come out in support of Reade’s bravery.  Reade hasn’t been labeled yet, but we trust one is in the works.  The war on women works in mysterious ways.

Assuming Biden soldiers on, his VP choice, given his age and declining cognitive ability, is an important one.

Is it a bit odd that months ago he announced that if he got the nomination his VP choice would be a female?  Pandering much?

A few months back Biden apologized for all of his actions saying “personal space is important, and I get it.”

Case closed?  Not yet.  It actually was just opened.

 

 

Everybody Ready? Here We Go!

America, have you heard?  We got a brand new dance and it’s called the herd(back in the day it was called the bird.)

The herd is a bit different.  It’s easy to learn.  It’s one step forward and two steps back.  Then it’s two steps forward and one step back.  And, it’s all done at a socially responsible six feet from your dance partner.  You never heard of it?  No one had until about March 1st.  Then it became all of the (out) rage in our country.

Quickly it became such a hit to us that the DJ started spinning the vinyl daily at about 6 pm EST.  That DJ is grandmaster Donald J.  While America danced the mostly liberal media sat in press conference chairs, looking like wallflowers, and asked why we shut down travel to China.  Xenophobes all. Then they asked why didn’t we shut down the country sooner.  Then they asked where the ventilators were.  How about masks for the party too?  One forward, two back.  That’s it.

And soon the music all but stopped.  The herd was barely heard from.  Shelter in place.  We need to get to herd immunity or we’ll thin the herd more than we’d like. Back, back, back.  That’s it.

A few weeks back America wanted to dance again.  Trump said one forward too soon.   Fauci said one back for now.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) took the party favors and hid them.  She said no dancing at all till she says dancing at all. She may have two left feet.

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp(R) said let’s open.  Trump said the first step should be slower.

Harris County Texas (read as Houston) Judge Lina Hidalgo(D) said masks for all starting this week or we’ll charge you a steep cover charge for no face cover. Texas Governor Greg Abbott(R) said feel free to show your face any time and any place.  One forward and one back.  That’s it.

The herd is rapidly developing its own mentality from coast to coast.  We want to dance again and we want to do it now.

But we wonder.  Is the herd getting replaced by a line dance forced on us by the “experts” in the government?  You can almost hear  “to the left, to the left, to the left” for part of the song, then “to the right, to the right, to the right”  for another part.

Even DJ Trump wondered aloud yesterday if his headset, turntable, and vinyl are worth trudging out to the White House Lawn Party every day anymore.

The wallflower press is still there.  They hate to dance.  They want to report on all of the wrong turns and missteps made on this the largest stage of them all.

But, you may have heard of the “herd mentality.”  It’s getting out of its chair and headed to the dance floor.  Ain’t no stopping us now.

Come on Chuck, ask Nancy to dance.

Whawk! Hallelujah! Whoa.
Whawk! Hallelujah! Whoa.

 

Holy Ice Cream, Batman!

You remember that noted health nut Jerry Nadler, don’t you?  On the national impeachment stage he played the role of Robin.  He was quite the actor, though the green tights seemed a bit binding at times.

Adam Schiff reprised the role of Adam West and starred as Batman.  Once Catwoman, aka Nancy Pelosi, shone the green light high into the DC night the caped crusader duo went about fighting all of the crimes that The Joker, well played by Donald Trump, committed.

The play played nonstop for what seemed like forever.  As the trio carried the impeachment articles down the hall of Congress, another villain snuck onto the world stage. His name is COVID-19.

After the two impeachment votes failed in the Senate it seemed like ole Jerry went into the deep freeze like The Penguin, or even like Joe Biden.  #WhereIsJoe and #WhereIsJerry?  Well, this week Jerry surfaced.   Rumors abound, that like a penguin, Jerry was enjoying the chill in Nancy Pelosi’s side by side twin Sub Zero freezers.  There is so much ice cream to hide under it’s like heaven to Jerry.  Is it a new character opportunity perhaps?

Nadler, now mostly thawed, tweeted yesterday.  “We need to come together to beat this disease, not attack each other and divide the country.  This is a disgrace.”  Oh, the irony.  It’s as thick as a tub of Ben and Jerry’s Fudge Brownie Chocolate.

Did Nadler’s actions around Impeachment help the country come together?  And, eight weeks into the fight Jerry decides to weigh(careful now) in now?  Did Nancy, with the old sweater tied just so around her shoulders, help too by showing off her stache of decadence?  Three weeks ago, Adam Schiff floated the idea that his Intelligence Committee would begin looking into who knew what and when about this “disease” as Jerry calls it.  That’s lending a helping hand right in the middle of it.

Fear not though, Nancy told the nation on Sunday that Congress would remain recessed until May 4th, unless there was a major crisis.  Hello?  Anyone home?  Oops, sorry, apparently everyone is home.

“Come together.”  It sounds so inclusive.  It sure beats “Together Apart.”

Will Jerry have another part on a national stage soon?  We can only hope that this crime-fighting team can “come together” one more time to provide us with the great entertainment we’ve come to expect.

After all, there is only so much Netflix left to watch, together of course.

 

On the Clock

The NFL Draft is tee minus 60 hours away and counting.   Yesterday the league and its 32 teams conducted a mock draft trial run.

The Cincinnati Bengals were, of course, the first team on the clock.  And, right away a glitch halted the process.   Come Thursday if only Joe Burrow could be so lucky.

The contrast between the NFL takeover of Broadway in Nashville last year for its street party draft and this year’s virtual, shelter in place, remote draft is stark.

The Presidential Election is tee minus 6 months away and counting.   Yesterday President Donald Trump held his daily news briefing.

The national media, of course, was on the clock.  And, right away Trump did what Trump does.  If only Joe Biden can continue to be so lucky.

The contrast between Trump and how he works the media and Biden, and how he doesn’t, is stark.  Trump’s already been on Twitter this AM to berate the Morning Joe Show on MSNBC after tweeting about various topics well into the evening after his media briefing.  He’ll be at it by 5 pm CST today again, holding court that is and berating the assembled again, that is.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden only appears on Twitter when someone grabs the video from his latest, infrequent tv interview or from his seldom in-home broadcast.  The #WhereIsJoe is seen way more than Joe himself.  His performances to date have more “gaffes” than memorable moments.

Biden has cover for now.  He’s sheltering in place like all obedient senior citizens have been asked to do.  But, it looks like a new day in the nation’s approach to the invisible enemy is dawning.  Soon, “where is Joe?” will need to be “Joe has campaign speeches in Michigan and Indiana today.”  Then his physical health and mental health will be challenged as often by Trump as he challenges the media he so likes to manipulate.  He calls them “Fake News” in case you haven’t heard.

Conversely, can Joe keep the media at his side?  Hunter is still a board member in China.  Joe has a serious allegation of sexual misconduct.  Joe has a habit of losing his place even with notes right in front of him.  Saying less and appearing less will soon mean more than it does as our attention is elsewhere.

Soon Joe, like the Bengals, will be on the clock.  He has a pick, too.  It will be a VP running mate.  It will mean more than it often does as well.

America is starved for normalcy.  It will watch the draft in record numbers.  It will watch Cincinnati’s Bengals.  Will it watch the campaigns in record numbers too?  If so, what will it think of Biden’s bungles?