The Softest Mask You’ll Ever Own

Yesterday, right in the middle of the 5PM EST Coronavirus White House Briefing, CNN cut away.   They decided that they weren’t going to give complementary advertising airtime to the airiest, make that “the softest pillow you’ll ever own.”  You know the jingle, ‘for a great night’s sleep and a whole lot more, it’s MyPillow.com.”

Donald Trump introduced Mike Lindell, Founder of My Pillow, to the assembled and those watching worldwide.  Trump was trumpeting another private enterprise that has redirected its production to help fight the enemy that we can’t see.  Lindell’s company is in the sleep business, but by Friday expects to be producing 50k protective hospital masks a week.

And therein lies the divide.  Make that, therein lies the canyon.

The Democratic Party wants the government to do more in this time of crisis.  And, it should.  And the Democrats want to point out all of the shortcomings of the Trump leadership during this terrible time.  And, it is their right.  The party also has willing media to carry their water.  CNN, MSNBC, and others almost gleefully report the negative and spin it south 24/7.

It wasn’t too long ago that the Republican Party wanted the government to do more in a time of crisis as well.  And, it should.  The Republicans endlessly pointed to the Bengazi Embassy fiasco that resulted in four Americans’ deaths.  And, it is their right.  The party also has willing media to carry their water as well.  FOX led the endless cry of the need to investigate Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s role in the disaster.

But to the right of Republicans, conservatives want the government to do even less.  They believe in capitalism as religiously as a Mike Lindell ever-present cross hanging from his neck.  And to the left of Democrats, socialists want the government to do it all.  They believe in the redistribution of money as crazily as Bernie’s coiffed hair flails in the spring breeze.

So, CNN has staked out a position of left of center to appease its audience.  It’s the Democratic base actually.  Trump is bad.  Private enterprise is bad.  Mike Lindell is bad.  Lindell advertises on Fox.  Fox is competition.  Cuomo ranting for more federal aid and ventilators is good.

And FOX has staked out a position of right of center to appease its audience.  It’s the Republican base actually.  Trump is good.  Private enterprise is good.  Mike Lindell is good.  Lindell advertises a ton with us.  CNN is competition.  Trump ranting about bad media and fake news is good.

So, here comes the 2020 CARES Act.  It’s $2.2 trillion.  Republicans at the trough wanted more for business and less for individuals.  Democrats wanted less for business and more for individuals.   In the end, they both got what they wanted.  They aren’t conservatives nor socialists.  They’re just big spenders.

Oh, and they both approved the $25 million for the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C. just like they both approved the Solyndra money.  Three days before Obama departed he appointed Susan Rice and Valerie Jarrett to the Kennedy Center’s board of trustees.

Pigs get fat.  Hogs get slaughtered.

And, CNN and FOX will be there to tell you all about it.  And, it’s either news, or fake news, or fair and balanced, or not, depending on who you watch.

America should try a pillow from MyPillow.com right about now.   We could all use a good night’s sleep.

 

 

 

 

 

Stocks Start Off The Week Higher

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

Now that we all know that we’ll all be in our homes for a least another month, I guess we’re going to have to come up with new ways to entertain ourselves. I went out at lunchtime and started my car (hadn’t in 15 days). It still works. Let me know if you have any fun ideas.

As for the markets, the news that the doctors and scientists are dictating policy actually seemed to come as a bit of relief to investors. Also, we continue to get encouraging news about vaccines and therapeutics, and that is certainly a positive for the market psyche. But, the damage to the economy is still going to an unknown that investors are going to have to deal with as the weeks and months go by.

As for today, stocks spent the day in positive territory and volatility actually wasn’t that bad. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 690 points to finish the day at 22,327. The S&P 500 was up 85 points to close at 2,626. Gold was down $19 to trade at $1,635 per ounce, while oil was down $1.41 to trade at $20.10 per barrel WTI.

The quarter ends tomorrow, so there is hope that portfolio rebalancing might add a little more fuel to today’s rally. But, as we move into the second quarter, the unknowns greatly outweigh the knowns. We need to prepare ourselves for more volatility going forward, as headlines from day to day are sure to be challenging. First, let’s see how the quarter finishes out tomorrow.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Pork. It’s Worth the Wait.

Isn’t the amount of negativity surrounding us today darn near overwhelming?  You bet it is.

So, today BBR has chosen to stay positive.  We see the glass of warm water that you should be drinking multiple times a day as half full.  We’re positive that if you add a squeeze of lemon in it that you can 1) lose weight, and therefore, 2) preserve your dwindling food supplies.

Feeling better already?  But wait! There’s more!

We’re positive that Madame Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi means well in this time of need.  Nancy came to the rescue with a visionary bailout/entitlement government stimulus plan all of her own.

While crazy Bernie just wants “Medicare for All” paid for by the taxpayer, Pelosi offers way more in her economic stimulus bill.   A six-pack sampling below unveils just a few of its probable positive effects.

  1.  a bailout of all USPS (that’s your post office) debt.
  2.  $35 million for the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts
  3.  a regulation that greenhouse gas stats are provided going forward on all flights
  4.  $15 minimum wage at all companies receiving assistance
  5.  1/3 board members chosen by workers for assisted companies
  6.  required early voting and required same-day voter registration

One should never let a good pandemic crisis slip by without slipping in a truckload (or $#%@load if you prefer) of barrels of pork and regulation.  Of course, a lot of our grocery stores could use a truckload of pork right about now.  The meat is so juicy it’ll be worth the wait.

We do think that Trump’s decision to not shake her hand before the State of the Union address, as well as her hand recoil, turns out to be a positive as well.   They were practicing social distancing before most of us had ever heard of “social distancing.”  How woke of the two?

And, when the Madame Speaker tore up the printed address she was prescient as well.  The virus tests positive (there’s that word again) on paper for a long while as you know.

Her examples of visionary leadership will have a positive effect on generations to come.  Here is but one example.  Senator Rand Paul was physically assaulted by his neighbor in 2017.  Injuries were significant.  And, four days ago Senator Paul tested positive for the Coronavirus.  “Rand Paul’s neighbor was right,” Pelosi’s daughter Christine tweeted yesterday.  That’s a multigenerational, passed on, bipartisan goodwill gesture if you’ve ever heard one.

Lastly, how about her warp speed ability to deliver the 1400 page proposal in such a short time?  Did she have such a measure ready to take advantage of a desperate time just like this one in her top desk drawer?  Like a lot of things these days, we’re positive about that as well.

The American economy is getting slaughtered by the day.  The pigs are soon to follow.

 

 

 

 

 

A Very Difficult Week Concludes

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

It looked like stocks really wanted to go up today, but alas, it appeared that more liquidation was occurring, it was quadruple witching Friday, and basically investors were scared to buy much of anything heading into the weekend. As more and more forced shutdowns occur, the economic fallout is becoming almost impossible to handicap at this point. But, so much of the selling of all assets in times like these- stocks, bonds, gold, etc. stems from firms being leveraged.  Leverage causes liquidation and having to sell assets at any price.

The important thing to remember is that investors like us do not use leverage. We are not forced to sell assets at fire sale prices. Indeed, as we have mentioned, our portfolios are set up just so we don’t have to do that. We always have a good portion of our allocation in safe, stable securities which are designed to hold steady in these times. If we need access to capital, we don’t have to sell stocks at the worst time, but instead can tap our stable assets while stocks take time to recover.

But, as mentioned, stocks just couldn’t stay in positive territory and by the afternoon, things began to fall apart once again. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 913 points to finish the day at 19,173. The S&P 500 was down 104 points to close at 2,304. Gold was up $7 to trade at $1,486 per ounce, while oil was down $2.34 to trade at $23.57 per barrel WTI.

It was another brutal week for markets and market participants. Despite the efforts of the Federal Reserve and Congress, we simply need good medical data and information to stem the tide. I know I keep saying it, but it keeps on being true. The Fed has been heroic in their liquidity providing efforts, and Congress will deliver something big soon, but fear and anxiety is what is gripping not only this nation, but the world. As I have continuously said, we will be here for you fighting every day to deliver the best service that we can to you. Keep your spirits high and your loved ones safe.

Try to have a nice weekend everyone

Jim

Ten Piece Nuggets-Drive Thru Only

It’s time for a serving.  But, in an effort to help slow the spread of the Coronavirus,  BBR’s executive team met well into the evening.  We decided that in order to best serve you and the broader community’s need to slow the virus that you cannot call “Wuhan,”  all nuggets going forward will be available at the drive-thru window only.  Shortly thereafter McDonald’s followed BBR’s lead and announced the same.  It’s a tough time.  Have some not so tender nuggets.

  1.  President Trump took to Twitter yesterday and called COVID-19 the “Chinese Virus.”  This was an obvious retort to the noise emanating out of China over the weekend that attempted to pin the origin of the virus on the U.S.  The sensitive side of the press came out and condemned the name game blame.
  2. Meanwhile, Joe Biden referred to Ebola as “what happened in Africa” in his debate on Sunday.  The difference between the insensitivity of Trump and the Biden geography lesson is obvious.  Trump was doing it on purpose while Biden had one of those pesky gaffes.  It’s not what you say, it’s how you say it.  Or, it’s not what you say, it’s who says it.  Or, it’s both.
  3.  Then there was Hollywood director and “Meathead” character Rob Reiner’s tweet.  “We will get through this. But unfortunately not with the help of this President.”  Reiner is one of the president’s most outspoken Hollywood critics. “First he must be removed from the public square to let competent experts take over, then he must be removed from office to allow US to heal.”  He capitalized “us.”  Sounds inclusive (for all of those who agree with him) to US.
  4. The NBA announced that if it doesn’t play again this year, it will cost the league nearly $500 million in revenues.  That’s in addition to the substantial revenue loss the league already experienced earlier this year after the controversy surrounding Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey’s pro-Hong Kong tweet.  This global relationship, er partnership, is getting trickier and more expensive by the day for them.

  5. On Sunday, Nashville Mayor John Cooper led an emergency meeting of the Metro Nashville Board of Health. After the meeting, Cooper called for restaurants and similar businesses to serve only at 50 percent capacity or to allow no more than 100 customers through the doors.  On Monday owner Kid Rock thumbed his nose at the mayor.  The GM of his joint called the mayor’s edict unconstitutional.
  6. Speaking of mayors and speaking of unconstitutional, New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell signed a coronavirus emergency order last week allowing her to ban the sale of firearms.  She signed a follow-up proclamation yesterday, further emphasizing her emergency powers to “suspend or limit the sale, dispensing, or transportation, of alcoholic beverages.”  No guns and no drinking will make NOLA hardly recognizable.
  7. The order stands “zero” chance in court and will be challenged.  After Katrina, Mayor Ray Nagin tried the exact same and had the edict struck down in court. He later lost an unrelated personal criminal case and wound up in jail for about 8 years.  Mayor Cantrell and her hubby haven’t paid their federal income taxes to the IRS in the last six years.  But, they were/are just trying to do the right thing for the people.
  8.  And yet another mayor called for some action.  New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio called for the nationalization of certain parts of the supply chain, and stated that “we’re getting close to a reality where the government has to ensure that the food supply, that it is not only available but that it’s equitably distributed.”  Crank up the printers.  Food stamps are on the way.
  9. So to recap, Nashville’s Mayor wants the bars closed.  New Orleans’ Mayor wants the sale of guns and booze shut down.  And, the NY Mayor wants us to stand in a bread line.
  10. Oh, and Trump said yesterday that we might be falling into a recession.  Ya think?

BBR’s drive-thru is open 24/7.  The nuggets aren’t in short supply.   But, if you want a happy meal or a Happy Meal, they are getting hard to find.

 

Important Market Update

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

Today surely felt like a day where fear met reality, and stocks basically were overwhelmed by headlines. The WHO finally declared that the world was experiencing a pandemic with regards to Covid-19. Cancellation of sporting events, concerts, rodeos, and gatherings of any type continued to make headlines, and as each hit the tape, stocks took another leg down. We have said for some time that global economies were going to be affected by Covid-19 and over the past couple of weeks, the markets are coming to grips with that. The problem is, that no one knows how deep the economic slowdown will be. Given all the cancellations, and reduced travel etc., the pain is going to be quite significant. But, as long term investors, we have to understand that however bad the pain will be, and however long it lasts, it is a temporary phenomenon. We talk all the time about disruptions that will happen, and that when they happen we always feel like it’s the end of the world. This is a new one. A health crisis, and the fear it is causing, of this magnitude hasn’t happened in my 35 years of managing money. I’m pretty sure that we won’t turn the corner until we get good health news-drug treatments, vaccines, etc. We will get responses from central banks and governments around the world, but until we get good news on the virus, it’s not likely the others will matter for more than a short period of time. We will likely continue to see violent counter trend rallies, but they are likely to be met with more selling, as have the few that we have already seen. Selling begets selling as fear begets fear. Until we get some good news on the virus, it’s going to be a rough ride.

As mentioned, stocks collapsed under the weight of a series of headlines as for the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1,464 points to close at 23,553. The S&P 500 was down 140 points to finish the day at 2,741. Gold was down $18 to trade at $1,641 per ounce, while oil was down $1.62 to trade at $32.74 per barrel WTI.

We will continue to keep you updated on market proceedings. As we have mentioned, our job during these moments is to help you deal with the stress and fear of times like this. Managing human behavior is vital right now. I know it is not easy, but that is what you have hired us to help you do. I have heard from many of you in the past couple of weeks and have enjoyed our conversations, which are sometimes difficult but necessary. Don’t hesitate to call in to hear a friendly voice. We’ll all get through this together, just like we did the financial collapse of 2008 and 2009, the Dot.Com bubble of 2000-2003, 9/11, the Asian contagion in the 90’s, the 87 Crash …

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Afternoon Market Update

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

Does this maniacal market action make us nervous? Of course, it does. We’re human too. It’s always stressful when you are dealing with the unknown, and things you can’t control. So, to that end, it is much more productive to deal with things that you know and can control. What we know right now is that global economies are likely to suffer from the stress of the Covid-19 virus. We certainly understand that folks will take less trips, stay home more, eat out less, skip going to the movies, stop visiting the mall (well, that’s been happening for some time, hasn’t it?) etc. What we don’t know is how long all of this will last. Obviously, the longer it takes to get the virus under control, both medically and socially, the more damage to global economies. But, logic also tells us that at some point we will get the virus situation under control. Whatever damage is done, will have to be repaired, but is there any reason to believe that that won’t happen?

We position our portfolios with these type of events in mind. During extended moves to the upside, we’ll occasionally get inquiries asking why we have those treasury bills, or other short term fixed income instruments. Obviously, times like this is why we have a portion of our monies in the safety bucket. Sure, we give up some upside potential when using that bucket, but when things deteriorate like we have seen in the past couple of weeks, having money in that safety bucket sure helps us sleep at night. A well-constructed portfolio helps reduce the overall volatility by having a portion of the monies in a safe, dependable bucket.

In addition, as you know, for retirees we like to keep up to 2 years of living expense in an additional safe place just for times like these. With our additional safety bucket available to draw from in times of disruption, we are able to turn off the flow of monthly income from our retirement accounts, thus not drawing down against an asset that has declined temporarily in price. Since bear markets last on average about 9 months, we can then return to drawing our income from the retirement accounts when markets are recovering and moving higher. We then replenish the additional safety bucket when times are good, such as last year’s stock market advance.

As for today’s action, as we mentioned this morning, stocks opened up down 7% and we had a 15 minute halt as the circuit breakers were triggered. After we started trading again, stocks remained in a relatively defined range, but ended near the lows of the day. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 2,013 points to finish the day at 23,851. The S&P 500 was down 225 points to close at 2,746. Gold was up $2 to trade at $1,674 per ounce, while oil was down a whopping $10.37 to trade at $30.91 per barrel WTI.

It was an historic day for the markets, not only in stocks, but we reached interest rate levels on U.S. Treasury Bonds never seen before. The 10 Year Note did slide back up over .50% by the close, but with both the 10 and 30 year paper both yielding less than 1%, we are seeing yields never before seen.

We are going to catch our breath and get some rest. We’ll be back at it tomorrow, and as we mentioned this morning, we’ll continue to send out bulletins updating you on the markets.

Try to have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

It’s a Crazy Time

Co-host of The View Meghan McCain said, “It’s a crazy time.”

Co-host Whoopi Goldberg had just pitched former President Barack Obama for the vice president slot on the Democratic Party’s ticket with 2020 presidential hopeful Joe Biden.  Goldberg said, “I’m sorry. I’m just going to do my crazy right now.”  Whoopee for Whoopi.

And so it is.

Meanwhile back at The White House, President Trump misses his orange-tinted mug.   “I haven’t touched my face in weeks,” he said. “In weeks. I miss it.”  Coronavirus task force leader Dr. Deborah Birx seemed encouraged.

And so it goes.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) took a dig at Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) after a Fox News segment made it sound as if the Massachusetts senator stood as the last female in the Democrat primary race, referring to her as a “fake indigenous woman of color.”  “Is it because you believe a fake indigenous woman of color is ‘real’ and the real indigenous woman of color in this race is fake?” she asked.  Ouch!  Gabbard has garnered exactly one delegate in the count that is over one thousand at this point.

And on.

Meanwhile, Warren contacted Bernie Sanders yesterday and informed him that she would take the proper amount of time to decide whether she would continue to drive in his lane or fold her tent.  Rush Limbaugh fill in Mark Steyn equated that to ” like someone giving me a tumbler of scotch and a pistol in my parlor, and saying ‘take your time, you’ll make the right decision.'”

And, then there was Joe Biden.

Biden, fresh off of a strong Super Tuesday, gained Mayor Mini Mike Bloomberg’s endorsement for the Democratic Party nomination.  Mayor Mike is 600 million lighter in the wallet after his abysmal failure of a run at the nomination.  Heck, Bloomberg even called Biden a good friend.  It’s tough to beat the smell of newly printed money.  Biden seems to have gotten his sea legs under him after on Monday confusing Tuesday with Thursday, and then on Tuesday confusing his wife with his sister.

The MSNBC crew previewed (promoted) an upcoming NBC Today Show interview.  On it Biden responded to “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie’s question, “Do you think the president is rooting for Sanders?” “I don’t think the president wants to face me. I will beat him, period. Period. He’s done everything in his power— he’s even risked his presidency because he doesn’t want to face me.”

And so?

What did Wall Street think of the step back that Wall Street basher Bernie Sanders took on Super Tuesday?  It rallied Wednesday in a big way up 1000 Dow points due to the reduced odds that a self-proclaimed Socialist could make the political circus more than the three rings that it already is.

And then?

And then came Thursday, which in spite of Biden’s efforts to label it “Super,” doesn’t seem to have a bright future.  The Dow futures are down 600 points plus this AM.

And finally?

Hopefully, the Corona Virus is greatly slowed or contained soon for obvious reasons.  It would also allow Trump to touch his face again.  After all, his makeup base and his political base know that orange is the new red, white, and blue.

And in America today, crazy is the new normal.

 

Another Wild Day But Positive

  1. Nn

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

Let the crazy volatility continue. Perhaps it was the good showing of Joe Biden last night during the Super Tuesday elections, staving off communism, or perhaps it was a lack of a devastating corona virus headline, or maybe it was a delayed reaction to the Fed rate cut yesterday. Whatever the case, stocks had another major move today, and this one was to the upside, similar to Monday’s move.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1,173 points to close at 27,090. The S&P 500 was up 126 points to finish the day at 3,130. Gold was down $5 to trade at $1,639 per ounce, while oil was down $.13 to trade at $47.05 per barrel WTI.

We expected this volatility to continue, as it has, and what is even more impressive is the size of these moves. Heck, 2% is a small move nowadays. Today we had another monster 4% move. As we said, buckle up, it’s going to be a wild ride for the time being.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Down to Three Approaching Fourscore

It’s Super Tuesday.  It’s a super big day for Bernie Sanders, running for his party’s presidential nomination.  And, it’s a super big day for Joe Biden, too, even though he thought it was Super Thursday.

And it’s a big day for the Democratic National Committee(DNC).  Assuming the vote tally process works better in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia than it did in Iowa the DNC will have a much better idea of what else they need to throw at Bernie Sanders to halt the assault from the far left.

Crazy Bernie has no chance in the general election of even coming close to Donald Trump.  You know it.  Your dog knows it. And, the DNC knows it.

And, apparently, that is very bad as it sounds like our time here on terra firma is running short.   Ask Beto O’Rourke.  Last evening while endorsing Biden, Beto shrieked, “The man in the White House today poses an existential threat to this country. To our democracy. To free and fair elections. And we need somebody who can beat him. And in Joe Biden, we have that man.”   Biden embraced far-left anti-gun extremist O’Rourke during a rally on Monday night in Texas.  He declared that the failed Senate and presidential candidate was going to lead Biden’s anti-Second Amendment efforts.   At least the unemployment figures will drop by one.

Most nominee hopefuls call climate change the biggest existential threat.  Tom Steyer was a loud one of those, but no more.  He dropped out over the weekend.  If a tree falls in the forest but no one hears it, is it still climate change?  If he endorses Biden and no one hears it, is it still an endorsement?

No word yet on if Steyer will endorse Biden.  But, the others are lining up and doing their party’s work.  Pete Buttigieg dropped out just in time to try to swing his votes to Uncle Joe.  Mayor Pete endorsed Biden last night.  Biden said that he was surprised that he did that.  Maybe he was as it’s 50/50 that he knows who Pete is.  The DNC wasn’t surprised.  Pete is young and dutiful.   Promises made?

Amy Klobuchar dropped out yesterday.  Whew.  Just in time for Super Thursd, er, Tuesday as well.  She also is expected to endorse Biden today.  Amy isn’t as young as Pete but is as dutiful.

After tonight the DNC will have a better feel for how many more ducks they have to get in a row to prevent that pesky Bernie Sanders from quacking too much in mid-July in Milwaukee.

The party (after Elizabeth Warren realizes it’s over today) of inclusion and diversity will be down to 77-year-old white male Joe Biden, 78-year-old white male Bernie Sanders, and 78-year-old white male Michael Bloomberg.  All would be fourscore and more after one term.

Sanders stayed along for the ride all of the way to the convention four years ago.  It drove Hillary harder and further than the then 69-year-old wanted.  As crazy as it seems he’s riding shotgun again.  No Beto, it’s not that kind of shotgun.  The DNC is trying desperately to play traffic cop.

Meanwhile, get some more endorsements, Joe.  There’s a guy named Obama.  He might stand behind you as you did with him especially if the DNC asks with a “pretty please.”

And, get some rest.