Indecisive

Posted on November 12, 2019 by Jim Carlton

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

It was another very quiet trading session with mixed results once again. The bond market was back open today, but that didn’t seem to make much of a difference. The President gave a speech focused on economics, but that didn’t seem to fire up any animal spirits either. For the most part, it appears that market participants are caught between the fear of buying at new highs and the fear of missing out should stocks go higher into year end.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down a fraction to close at 27,691. The S&P 500 was up 4 points to finish the day at 3091. Gold was up $1 to trade at $1,458 per ounce, while oil was down $.08 to trade at $56.78 per barrel WTI.

The most talked about thing today was the first day of Disney’s new streaming service. If you have Verizon, you evidently get one year free. Regardless, given the buzz, it appears that it will be a very popular offering from Mouse House. As for the markets, let’s see if the week picks up any steam as we roll along.

Have a nice evening everyone. Stay warm.

Jim

10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380
(281) 298-2700 Phone
(877) 824-4299 Toll Free
(281) 298-2760 Fax

[email protected] www.chjwealthmanagement.com

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

*Numbers and figures sourced from the following: Bloomberg.com, CNBC.com and Finance.Yahoo.com.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

CHJ Wealth Management,
10200 Grogan’s Mill Road,
Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380

Lefty- Big Game. Shorty- YUGE game.

Posted on November 6, 2019November 6, 2019 by thependulumswings staff

Way way back in 1966, or 1967 Lefty and Shorty were the amiable service station attendants. Well, that’s what they were called back then as every pump was full serve. Dad interacted with them as they checked the oil, washed the windshield, pumped the gas, and took the money.

Lefty sat to the left of Shorty. Imagine that. Shorty sat on the shorter of the two “halves” of the 55 gallon drum. Imagine that. Each were cut down to size and retrofitted with a soft cushion top.

They were funny. They always had a back and forth to their banter. If they were alive last night might have gone like this.

Lefty- It’s after midnight and it’s cold. Nobody’s buying gas at this hour. Why are we sitting here? Shorty- So we can discuss the upcoming “Game of the Century, Part II.” It’s AP #1 LSU v. #2 Alabama. Lefty- Big Game. Shorty- YUGE game. President Donald J. Trump will be there. Lefty- He will be? Shorty- For sure. It’s in the Deep South. It’s Deep State v. Deep State. It’s his base. Plus he likes cheers, not boos when his name is announced.

Lefty- Who’s he rooting for? Shorty- All of the deplorables in attendance I guess. He won’t be partial. He’ll likely wear some fresh orange with a red tide. Lefty– That’s not impartial. You must mean a red tie? Shorty- No, there are no ties in college football, overtimes decide winners. And Trump likes to win, win, win.

Lefty- Good lord. Shorty- Well, who do you think is going to win? Lefty- Tough call, but Joe Burrow is almost automatic operating out of the shotgun. Shorty- Burrow’s lucky Beto O’Rourke isn’t refereeing. He promised to take all of the damn guns.

Lefty- Jesus, Mary, and Joseph. Shorty- Nope they can’t win. They’re the only three that haven’t announced their candidacy for the Democratic nomination. Lefty- Ahem. Let’s get back to the game, can we? Shorty- Sure. It’s going to be standing room only and one expensive ticket. Lefty- I bet. Shorty- I just saw Elizabeth Warren tweet that if she were elected President the tickets would be free.

Silence filled the cold still air as Lefty checked his pulse rate.

Lefty- Well, one more time, who do you think is going to win? Shorty- I don’t know. 2011 is the last time LSU won. That’s “Four More Years!” and “Four More Years!” ago. Lefty- Alabama’s defense usually stifles LSU. Shorty- That’s cause Nick Saban spends more on his defense budget than Trump does on ours. Lefty- I’ll play along. What else? Shorty- Well a few reporters asked Joe Biden what he thought of the upcoming game. Lefty- Sure they did. What did he have to say? Shorty- Well, he said he remembered attending the LSU/Bama “Game of the Century, Part I” back in 2011 acting in his official role of Vice President. Lefty- And? Shorty- And, he wanted to wish both the Iowa Jayhawks and the Minnesota Wolverines great luck in Part II this Saturday night in their showdown in Tempe.

Lefty- I’m punching out before I punch you out. Anything else? Shorty- The teams are ranked one and two in the AP, but two and three in the College Playoff Poll. Lefty- Who’s number one in that poll then? Shorty- It’s a tossup right now between Joe, Bernie, and Elizabeth.

Lefty- This has been a dumpster fire. Shorty- I’ll empty the trash cans before I go.

We the People

Posted on October 30, 2019October 31, 2019 by thependulumswings staff

The original, unedited, wonderfully written Constitution begins “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

Now, nearly 250 years in, it has stood the test of time. It’s what the nation’s forefathers hoped it would do.

It’s strongest part might be it’s first three words, “We the People.” It’s very beginning suggests that a group met and collectively decided on a course. That course took a brand new nation, now independent, from it’s birth to opportunities, freedom, safety, wealth, and health the likes of which have never been seen before on this earth.

Today, “We the People” are a very divided group. Are we the most divided in our nation’s history? Probably not. And, despite the histrionics advanced, it’s probably not even close. “We the People” were more divided before, during, and after the 1861-1865 Civil War. And, the civil rights movement of the 1960’s was worse to significantly much worse than today.

Today’s “we” are three “we’s” and counting. We love the disruption that Trump has brought to the status quo in Washington and when, where, and how the U.S. acts on the world stage. Or, we are disrupters known as “never Trumpers” and we hate (yes hate) Trump. A third, but growing we, embraces socialism, or even communism. Talk about disruption personified.

Don’t believe the socialism or communism part? A published poll last evening on one of the major networks showed 27% of American millennials favored communism over capitalism. These kids borrowed for college. They owe a lot of money. They believe that an entry level job isn’t a just reward for doing so. They want a refund. And they want it now. The 1% crowd might be their ATM so they think.

We cannot even rejoice in the elimination of the top leader of ISIS, Abū Bakr al-Baghdadi. Minutes went by and either the Democrats were offended for not being told prior, or Trump was acting like a bully about it on the bully pulpit, or the Washington Post was eulogizing the savage who ordered the killing of thousands as a austere religious scholar.

The never Trumpers, regardless of party affiliation, have embarked on a three year old campaign to unseat the man who ran the most unconventional campaign the country has ever seen to win the highest seat in all of the land. That campaign won’t stop all the while Trump’s campaign for reelection is full steam ahead. Hide in a basement, interview a self created whistleblower, scream “quid quo pro” enough times, and eventually impeach. That’ll get some of the “We the People” on your team.

Meanwhile, surely it’s time to gas up Air Force One and rile up the base in a red state near you soon. Stand in line, wear a red MAGA hat, and yell at the other side for 90 minutes. That’ll make you feel better. And, that’ll get some of the “We the People” on your team.

Meanwhile, Bernie and Elizabeth are promising those millennials the farm. The farm might not have much left if Trump doesn’t solve the China trade wars, but we digress. The farm might not have much left if Trump doesn’t fix that ole existential crisis of climate change, but we further digress. The farm includes free healthcare, free tuition, tuition debt forgiveness, free flow of immigration, free healthcare for immigrants legal or otherwise. Free, free, free. That’ll get some of the “We the People” on your team.

The only problem is that makes for three teams. It takes four teams for a good playoff. How about Team Biden? He’s the head coach of what’s left of the old Democratic Party. He’s the head coach of what’s now right of the new Democratic Party. He’s promising to, well, we’re not sure. Ah yes, he’s promising to beat Trump, platform TBD. Surely that’ll get some of the “We the People” on your team.

“In order to form a more perfect union” follows right after “We the People” in the Constitutions’ first sentence. The problem is we don’t know who to follow right now in order to form a more perfect union.

Oh, and one more thing. Nothing is free, not even freedom. Nothing.

Stocks Take A Breather

Posted on October 16, 2019 by Jim Carlton

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

Not surprisingly, after yesterday’s earnings driven rally, stocks took a bit of a breather today after a somewhat disappointing retail sales number was released before the opening bell. As mentioned, we are just getting started with regards to earnings reports (Bank of America added to the decent reports from large banks), and after the close we’ll hear from Netflix, IBM and CSX.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 22 points to finish the day at 27,001. The S&P 500 was down 5 points to close at 2,989. Gold was up $9 to trade at $1,493 per ounce, while oil was up $.50 to trade at $53.31 per barrel WTI.

We’ll continue to keep an eye out on all the earnings reports that will be rolling out over the next few weeks. Stay tuned.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380
(281) 298-2700 Phone
(877) 824-4299 Toll Free
(281) 298-2760 Fax

[email protected] www.chjwealthmanagement.com

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

CHJ Wealth Management,
10200 Grogan’s Mill Road,
Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380

The Nationals Won. The Senators Lost.

Posted on October 16, 2019October 16, 2019 by thependulumswings staff

If you didn’t get a chance to tune into the Democratic Presidential Debate broadcasted live last evening, worry not. It’s roughly only the fourth of 12 scheduled debates. You can catch the next one or the next one. Maybe the same tired answers to the same tired questions will grab your interest then. We doubt very seriously that last night’s did. And, worry not because we have the winners and losers all sorted out for you below. Schmeer the bagel while we schmeer the debate.

Winner — Elizabeth Warren. She spoke for a total of 23 minutes which was a strong 7 minutes longer than the presumptive, but maybe no longer, favorite Joe Biden.

Loser — Everyone. Everyone who listened to Elizabeth Warren for 23 minutes must feel like they need to go to their happy place this morning. There is no way that every second of every minute of 23 spoken can be so terribly important about things that are so terribly bad that she must use the octave of shrill that she incessantly does. Take a breath every now and then.

Winner — Joe Biden. Biden spoke for 16 minutes and didn’t really have a memorable “gaffe.” He said “expidentially” instead of “exponentially.” He mistook Iraq for Afghanistan. But, that’s a good night for him these days. Win one for the old gaffer is still in play, barely.

Loser — Joe Biden. If Uncle Joe thinks that his topline response to his son’s foreign dealings is the end of it he’s sadly mistaken. “My son’s statement speaks for itself.” “My son made a judgment. I’m proud of the judgment he made.” His party will take Trump to the mat from now till 2020 for his foreign affairs and Trump will tweet about Papa Joe and Son Hunter along the way as necessary.

WInner — Tulsi Gabbard. Every time Gabbard speaks she sounds well thought out and mostly logical. It’s a breath of fresh air on a very stale stage. She isn’t afraid to call out her party or the other one when she feels the need, but does so in a respectful manner.

Loser — Tulsi Gabbard. Gabbard was afforded only eight minutes of oxygen to breathe new life in the old party. She lashed out at CNN last evening after the debate for the lack of time. This may be a reach, but if Trump reached out to her after her campaign gets snuffed out by the DNC, he could make major hay if she accepted a role in his administration. She seems like the type that if she felt like she could make a difference regardless of their differences she would give it her all.

Winner — Bernie Sanders. Two weeks after having what is now being called a heart attack, Bernie was back on the attack. With his hair out of place, his hands and arms flailing about, and with his far, far left ideas being bombastically presented, all seemed well again.

Loser — Bernie Sanders. His campaign is boxed in. His radical left perch has many birds of the same feather. They all look stuck together. His stint as the left ideas leader was further slowed by the need for a stent in the arteries.

Winner — Kamala Harris. Harris used a good bit of her 12 minutes telling America, once gain, that she was plenty experienced as the AG for the State of California. She reminded us that aside from the US Department of Justice, that department is the second largest in the US. She also told us, once again, that she went to more funerals of slain innocent children and gunned down cops than she wanted to tell us about. It was a great refresher course on who she is we guess.

Loser — Kamala Harris. Harris used a good bit of her 12 minutes telling America, once gain, that she was plenty experienced as the AG for the State of California. She reminded us that aside from the US Department of Justice, that department is the second largest in the US. She also told us, once again, that she went to more funerals of slain innocent children and gunned down cops than she wanted to tell us about. It was a great refresher course on who she is we guess. Or, it wasn’t.

Winner — Tom Steyer. The retired billionaire who bought his way onto the debate stage had the bright lights shining on him for a full seven minutes. It must have felt like he was running out of a tunnel onto a playing field for the first time with his favorite JV team. Cost per minute was rather steep, however.

Loser — Tom Steyer. Now the retired billionaire can go back to sending money to the candidates he stood next to.

Winner — The Washington Nationals. The Nationals probably gained TV eyeballs by the minute as America switched the debate off, and their sweep in the NLCS of the St. Louis Cardinals on.

Winner — The Washington Nationals. Once upon a time there was a team in Washington. Their nickname was the Senators. They moved to Texas in 1971 and became the Rangers. When the DC area regained a team (the Montreal Expos) in the 2005 season they didn’t rename them the Senators. After last night’s debate snoozer, who can blame them?

Winner — Donald J. Trump. Regardless of your party affiliation, hopes, and dreams, you had to be disappointed in the debate. It was a rerun of a rerun and it lacked any suspense, drama, plot twists, or excitement.

Winner — Adam Schiff. If you are the DNC your best hope for now of beating Trump is impeaching Trump.

Crazy Quarter Comes to an End

Posted on September 30, 2019 by Jim Carlton

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

What a quarter. Political turmoil, recession fears, trade wars, Fed indecision/confusion, daily headline risk and never-ending market moving tweets. Good grief, how much did the market suffer? Well, actually, after all was said and done both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were both up around 1.25%. No, that’s not much, but given the gloom and doom feelings that permeate the business news channels on a daily basis, it’s remarkable that stocks weren’t down double digits for the quarter.

As for today, by the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 96 points to finish the day at 26,916. The S&P 500 was up 14 points to close at 2,976. Gold was down $27 to trade at $1,480 per ounce, while oil was down $1.71 to trade at $54.20 per barrel WTI.

We turn the page on the 3rd quarter and now enter the final quarter of the year. Expectations are that we will see one more Fed rate cut before year end, and this upcoming earnings season is sure to cause some concern as companies continue to navigate existing and potential trade situations. Let’s catch our breath and buckle up for the final three months of the year.

Have a nice evening everyone

Jim

10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380
(281) 298-2700 Phone
(877) 824-4299 Toll Free
(281) 298-2760 Fax

[email protected] www.chjwealthmanagement.com

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

CHJ Wealth Management,
10200 Grogan’s Mill Road,
Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380

Stocks Lower Without Conviction

Posted on September 27, 2019 by Jim Carlton

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

Stocks ended lower, but without much conviction. The revised GDP number came in exactly the same as the previous revision, up 2% for the 2^nd quarter of the year, and the pending home sales number was better than last month. Once again, on the economic front, though not necessarily robust, the U. S. economy is “hanging in there” despite the stress we are seeing around the globe. (Notice I didn’t mention political headlines and tweets-I just can’t).

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 79 points to finish the day at 26,891. The S&P 500 was down 7 points to close at 2,977. Gold was down $1.40 to trade at $1,510 per ounce, while oil was up $.06 to trade at $56.55 per barrel WTI.

Tomorrow, we get a look at durable goods orders, personal income, consumer spending, core inflation and the consumer sentiment index. Hopefully, that is enough to distract us from tweets and headlines. Let’s see how the week finishes out tomorrow.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380
(281) 298-2700 Phone
(877) 824-4299 Toll Free
(281) 298-2760 Fax

[email protected] www.chjwealthmanagement.com

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

CHJ Wealth Management,
10200 Grogan’s Mill Road,
Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380

Quiet On The Set!

Posted on September 25, 2019 by thependulumswings staff

The Salem witch trials were a series of hearings and prosecutions of people accused of witchcraft in colonial Massachusetts between February 1692 through May 1693. More than 200 people were accused. Nineteen were found guilty and executed by hanging. The episode is one of Colonial America’s most notorious cases of mass hysteria. It has been used in political rhetoric and popular literature as a cautionary tale about the dangers of false accusations and lapses in due process.

My how we have progressed in the 326 years since 1693. Or not.

Yesterday House Majority Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced after a meeting with Democratic House leaders that the House would begin an impeachment inquiry into the allegations that President Trump attempted to influence the 2020 presidential race by asking Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky to look into possible wrong doings by Joe Biden’s son Hunter in his business dealings with the country.

Last night it was reported that the whistleblower to the Intelligence Inspector General hadn’t actually heard the conversation, but was told of it. But, surely where there is smoke there is fire. The whistleblower retained an attorney who previously worked for Chuck Schuemer and none other than Hillary Clinton. But, we digress.

Today the White House will release the complete unredacted transcripts of the call. But, why wait for that? Get the pitchforks out of the shed yesterday.

Remember, Joe Biden is on tape bragging about how he influenced Ukraine to fire the prosecutor that was looking into his son’s LLC’s Ukraine dealings. This blatantly obvious transgression, much bigger than your average daily gaffe, makes us wonder.

Could two wrongs make a right for the far left? Let’s play “what if.” What if there is enough undertone to the tone of Trump’s call to give the mob more impetus to carry on the inquiry? Or, what if there is not? Here is what happens regardless.

Congressional Democrats up for reelection in 2020 can either vote to impeach (if it even comes to that) if it helps them gain reelection, or vote against if it will not. Remember, all politics inevitably are local. Thirty-one Democrats are running in districts that Trump carried by 10 points or more in 2016.
At a minimum this continues the “we must oust the corrupt Trump” war that the House has run with for three years now. We are just guessing, but this inquiry might just last up until, say, roughly the first week of November of 2020. Fire up the lanterns and the base.
What if Biden gets tangled up in this mess? Shouldn’t he have to release his meeting notes and phone calls to Ukraine when he was VP? As stated above, he’s openly told assembled crowds that he has done exactly what Trump is now accused of.
If so, doesn’t this further weaken an already weakened Biden campaign?
If so, doesn’t this turn a crack into a wide open door for a Warren, or Sanders, or Harris, etc. to walk through for the nomination?
There aren’t enough House votes to impeach. Even if there was, there certainly aren’t enough Senate votes to convict the President.
If so, then when it’s all said and done what’s the end game? The answer of course is “politics.” And political gain leads to power. And power leads to control.

The trials of 1692-3 were started after people had been accused of the witchcraft, primarily by teenage girls such as Elizabeth Hubbard, 17, as well as some who were even younger. Many books, documentaries, movies, and TV shows have examined the Salem trials.

One day many books, documentaries, movies, and TV shows will examine this accusation of wrongdoing as well. President Trump was once a reality TV star prior to his current gig. The casting director should choose Trump to play the role of Trump. And, he or she should choose Alexandria Octavio Cortez to play the role of the very imaginative teenage girl. And, it now seems certain that, reluctantly, Nancy Pelosi will direct the expose.

Lights, camera, action!

Rub the Lamp

Posted on September 19, 2019 by thependulumswings staff

Canadian leader Justin Trudeau’s campaign for national elections was hit Wednesday by the publication of a photo showing him in “brownface” makeup at a costume party in 2001.

We have questions. One, was Aladdin a racist movie? Two, when then teacher Justin Trudeau dressed as an Aladdin character in 2001 for the annual school dinner that was themed “Arabian Nights” was he furthering sterotypes and committing a racist act? Was Trudeau’s apology for doing so, politics aside, really necessary? When he dressed that night, and likely many others at the British Columbia school party did similarly, did he or others think what they were doing was wrong? If he did, should he have apologized any time in the last 18 years? If he should have apologized, why didn’t he?

We have answers. No. No. No. No. Yes. And, hmm, good question.

Aladdin debuted in 1992 produced by Walt Disney. It was remade in 2019 and grossed one billion dollars worldwide. Will Smith was the lead in the 2019 remake. It seems like Walt Disney, a ton of movie goers, and Will Smith seem to think it wasn’t racist.

The dressed for the party Trudeau in 2001 was doing nothing different than the movie writers, producers, casting, cast, directors, and producers did in 1992. Did he give getting “brownfaced” a second thought then? It’s highly unlikely, and it was highly unnecessary as well that he do so. Intent matters.

Trudeau, who launched his reelection campaign a week ago, said he should have known better. “I’m pissed off at myself, I’m disappointed in myself,” Trudeau told reporters traveling with him on his campaign plane. Perhaps he could get a make believe role in the next remake. He is “sooooo” redfaced about being caught redhanded being brownfaced. This sounds “sooooo” 2019 politically correct that we wish we could rub a genie’s lamp and make it all stop.

We wonder how long he has been beating himself up for this heinous act. Our guess is that the faux self flogging only began right after Time magazine posted the photo, which it says was published in the yearbook from the West Point Grey Academy where Trudeau worked as a teacher before entering politics. The photo depicts Trudeau wearing a turban and robe, with dark makeup on his hands, face and neck.

Trudeau has been admired by liberals around the world for his progressive policies. Canada has accepted more refugees than the United States in the last three years. His Liberal Party government has also strongly advocated free trade. He faces a very stiff challenge from Conservative leader Andrew Scheer. But, being politically correct knows no political boundaries.

One of the three wishes Aladdin had for the Genie was to get out of the “cave of wonders.” We don’t live in a cave. Therefore, we don’t wonder why he apologized after the photo surfaced and not before.

Bad acting comes and goes. But, we hope that the curtain never falls on authenticity. Somebody rub the lamp and wish it all away.

Know When to Say “Uncle.”

Posted on September 18, 2019September 18, 2019 by thependulumswings staff

Budweiser, in a responsible drinking campaign several years back, coined the phrase “know when to say when.” Remember growing up when you were involved in a little physical tussle, skirmish, wrestling match, etc. and one side had enough they would say “uncle.” Why would they say “uncle?” It seems that while “crying uncle” is today regarded as an Americanism, its origins go all the way back to the Roman Empire. Roman children, when beset by a bully, would be forced to say “Patrue, mi Patruissimo,” or “Uncle, my best Uncle,” in order to surrender and be freed.

So, when should Uncle Joe Biden’s team say “uncle?” Preposterous you say? We actually think that Joe Biden means well. We think that he thinks that he can continue to do something, or has done something in his 32 years in public office to make a positive difference. But.

Wasn’t it just three years ago that very suddenly people named Bush and Clinton looked old and sounded so “yesterday?” What does that make Biden look like and sound like today?

Ronald Reagan’s detractors pointed out repeatedly when he had a “senior moment” or three that he might no longer be fit to hold the highest office in the land in his second term. Reagan exited the oval office for good after term two at the tender age of 77. Biden would already be 77 if he won when sworn into the office.

Don’t you wonder why he passed on the chance to run one final time after he served eight straight years as VP under Obama? Would the timing ever be better? Did he think it was Hillary’s turn? Please. Who thinks like that when they need to have the drive, bravado, tenacity, and “can do” attitude to handle the insane pressure of the top job? When has that stopped someone who wanted something? Or, was he just plain tired?

Several weeks ago he reminded us in his service to his country as VP that he had a chance to speak to some of the survivors and families touched by the Parkland School shooting. The problem, of course, was that he wasn’t in office then. His team said that he was referring to the Sandy Hook school shooting. Hmm.

A few weeks later, when America was on it’s heels from the back to back mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton, Biden spoke to gun control needs again and referenced these shootings in Houston and Michigan. Well, that’s a wrong city in the right state and the wrong state when attempting to recall a city in another state. Jeez.

Yesterday, to an assembled crowd, he advanced the idea of an $8000 child care credit for families and said that it would put 720 million women back to work. You can see the short clip here. We aren’t convinced that one begets the other. Further, when you subtract men and children from the estimated 330 million who call America home, you might get to 80-90 million women in all.

Remember, all of this is happening 14 months out from the general election. There are 11, yes 11, Democratic Presidential debates scheduled prior to the nomination. Then, the survivor gets to tangle with the man who loves to get people to say “uncle,” one Donald J. Trump.

Most incumbents, and all front runners, tend to limit their exposure and by definition limit the number and length of the debates. Donald J. is not a “most” incumbent.

Current odds on Biden to not be the Democratic nominee is minus $400. You bet $400 to win $100 if he doesn’t gain the nomination fair and square. You also win the 100 bucks if Uncle Joe says “uncle.”

“I want to be clear, I’m not going nuts,” Biden said Friday two weeks ago. The former vice president’s clarification came before he mistakenly praised Vermont when asked about his impression of Keene, N.H. Painful.

Father Time is undefeated. Uncle Joe might be best served by saying “uncle” before he is defeated.