News

The Nationals Won. The Senators Lost.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

If you didn’t get a chance to tune into the Democratic Presidential Debate broadcasted live last evening, worry not.   It’s roughly only the fourth of 12 scheduled debates.  You can catch the next one or the next one.   Maybe the same tired answers to the same tired questions will grab your interest then.  We doubt very seriously that last night’s did.  And, worry not because we have the winners and losers all sorted out for you below.  Schmeer the bagel while we schmeer the debate.

Winner — Elizabeth Warren.  She spoke for a total of 23 minutes which was a strong 7 minutes longer than the presumptive, but maybe no longer, favorite Joe Biden.

Loser —  Everyone.  Everyone who listened to Elizabeth Warren for 23 minutes must feel like they need to go to their happy place this morning.  There is no way that every second of every minute of 23 spoken can be so terribly important about things that are so terribly bad that she must use the octave of shrill that she incessantly does.  Take a breath every now and then.

Winner —  Joe Biden.  Biden spoke for 16 minutes and didn’t really have a memorable “gaffe.”  He said “expidentially” instead of “exponentially.”  He mistook Iraq for Afghanistan.  But, that’s a good night for him these days.   Win one for the old gaffer is still in play, barely.

Loser  —  Joe Biden.  If Uncle Joe thinks that his topline response to his son’s foreign dealings is the end of it he’s sadly mistaken. “My son’s statement speaks for itself.”  “My son made a judgment. I’m proud of the judgment he made.” His party will take Trump to the mat from now till 2020 for his foreign affairs and Trump will tweet about Papa Joe and Son Hunter along the way as necessary.

WInner — Tulsi Gabbard.  Every time Gabbard speaks she sounds well thought out and mostly logical.  It’s a breath of fresh air on a very stale stage.  She isn’t afraid to call out her party or the other one when she feels the need, but does so in a respectful manner.

Loser — Tulsi Gabbard.  Gabbard was afforded only eight minutes of oxygen to breathe new life in the old party.  She lashed out at CNN last evening after the debate for the lack of time.  This may be a reach, but if Trump reached out to her after her campaign gets snuffed out by the DNC, he could make major hay if she accepted a role in his administration.  She seems like the type that if she felt like she could make a difference regardless of their differences she would give it her all.

Winner —  Bernie Sanders.  Two weeks after having what is now being called a heart attack, Bernie was back on the attack.  With his hair out of place, his hands and arms flailing about, and with his far, far left ideas being bombastically presented, all seemed well again.

Loser — Bernie Sanders.  His campaign is boxed in.  His radical left perch has many birds of the same feather.  They all look stuck together.   His stint as the left ideas leader was further slowed by the need for a stent in the arteries.

Winner — Kamala Harris.  Harris used a good bit of her 12 minutes telling America, once gain, that she was plenty experienced as the AG for the State of California.  She reminded us that aside from the US Department of Justice, that department is the second largest in the US.  She also told us, once again, that she went to more funerals of slain innocent children and gunned down cops than she wanted to tell us about.   It was a great refresher course on who she is we guess.

Loser — Kamala Harris.  Harris used a good bit of her 12 minutes telling America, once gain, that she was plenty experienced as the AG for the State of California.  She reminded us that aside from the US Department of Justice, that department is the second largest in the US.  She also told us, once again, that she went to more funerals of slain innocent children and gunned down cops than she wanted to tell us about.  It was a great refresher course on who she is we guess.  Or, it wasn’t.

Winner — Tom Steyer. The retired billionaire who bought his way onto the debate stage had the bright lights shining on him for a full seven minutes.  It must have felt like he was running out of a tunnel onto a playing field for the first time with his favorite JV team.  Cost per minute was rather steep, however.

Loser — Tom Steyer.  Now the retired billionaire can go back to sending money to the candidates he stood next to.

Winner — The Washington Nationals.  The Nationals probably gained TV eyeballs by the minute as America switched the debate off, and their sweep in the NLCS of the St. Louis Cardinals on.

Winner — The Washington Nationals.   Once upon a time there was a team in Washington.  Their nickname was the Senators.  They moved to Texas in 1971 and became the Rangers.  When the DC area regained a team (the Montreal Expos) in the 2005 season they didn’t rename them the Senators.  After last night’s debate snoozer, who can blame them?

Winner — Donald J. Trump.  Regardless of your party affiliation, hopes, and dreams, you had to be disappointed in the debate.  It was a rerun of a rerun and it lacked any suspense, drama, plot twists, or excitement.

Winner — Adam Schiff.  If you are the DNC your best hope for now of beating Trump is impeaching Trump.

 

Crazy Quarter Comes to an End

Posted on by Jim Carlton

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

JIM CARLTON
Managing Director
Chief Investment Officer

Friends

What a quarter. Political turmoil, recession fears, trade wars, Fed indecision/confusion, daily headline risk and never-ending market moving tweets. Good grief, how much did the market suffer? Well, actually, after all was said and done both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were both up around 1.25%. No, that’s not much, but given the gloom and doom feelings that permeate the business news channels on a daily basis, it’s remarkable that stocks weren’t down double digits for the quarter.

As for today, by the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 96 points to finish the day at 26,916. The S&P 500 was up 14 points to close at 2,976. Gold was down $27 to trade at $1,480 per ounce, while oil was down $1.71 to trade at $54.20 per barrel WTI.

We turn the page on the 3rd quarter and now enter the final quarter of the year. Expectations are that we will see one more Fed rate cut before year end, and this upcoming earnings season is sure to cause some concern as companies continue to navigate existing and potential trade situations. Let’s catch our breath and buckle up for the final three months of the year.

Have a nice evening everyone

Jim

10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX  77380 
(281) 298-2700 Phone
(877) 824-4299 Toll Free
(281) 298-2760 Fax

[email protected]        www.chjwealthmanagement.com

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

*Numbers and figures sourced from the following: Bloomberg.com, CNBC.com and Finance.Yahoo.com.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

CHJ Wealth Management,
10200 Grogan’s Mill Road,
Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380

Stocks Lower Without Conviction

Posted on by Jim Carlton

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

JIM CARLTON
Managing Director
Chief Investment Officer

Friends

Stocks ended lower, but without much conviction. The revised GDP number came in exactly the same as the previous revision, up 2% for the 2nd quarter of the year, and the pending home sales number was better than last month. Once again, on the economic front, though not necessarily robust, the U. S. economy is “hanging in there” despite the stress we are seeing around the globe. (Notice I didn’t mention political headlines and tweets-I just can’t).

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 79 points to finish the day at 26,891. The S&P 500 was down 7 points to close at 2,977. Gold was down $1.40 to trade at $1,510 per ounce, while oil was up $.06 to trade at $56.55 per barrel WTI.

Tomorrow, we get a look at durable goods orders, personal income, consumer spending, core inflation and the consumer sentiment index. Hopefully, that is enough to distract us from tweets and headlines. Let’s see how the week finishes out tomorrow.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX  77380 
(281) 298-2700 Phone
(877) 824-4299 Toll Free
(281) 298-2760 Fax

[email protected]        www.chjwealthmanagement.com

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

*Numbers and figures sourced from the following: Bloomberg.com, CNBC.com and Finance.Yahoo.com.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

CHJ Wealth Management,
10200 Grogan’s Mill Road,
Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380

Quiet On The Set!

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The Salem witch trials were a series of hearings and prosecutions of people accused of witchcraft in colonial Massachusetts between February 1692 through May 1693. More than 200 people were accused.  Nineteen were found guilty and executed by hanging.   The episode is one of Colonial America’s most notorious cases of mass hysteria. It has been used in political rhetoric and popular literature as a cautionary tale about the dangers of false accusations and lapses in due process.

My how we have progressed in the 326 years since 1693.  Or not.

Yesterday House Majority Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced after a meeting with Democratic House leaders that the House would begin an impeachment inquiry into the allegations that President Trump attempted to influence the 2020 presidential race by asking Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky to look into possible wrong doings by Joe Biden’s son Hunter in his business dealings with the country.

Last night it was reported that the whistleblower to the Intelligence Inspector General hadn’t actually heard the conversation, but was told of it.  But, surely where there is smoke there is fire.  The whistleblower retained an attorney who previously worked for Chuck Schuemer and none other than Hillary Clinton.  But, we digress.

Today the White House will release the complete unredacted transcripts of the call.  But, why wait for that?  Get the pitchforks out of the shed yesterday.

Remember, Joe Biden is on tape bragging about how he influenced Ukraine to fire the prosecutor that was looking into his son’s LLC’s Ukraine dealings.   This blatantly obvious transgression, much bigger than your average daily gaffe, makes us wonder.

Could two wrongs make a right for the far left?  Let’s play “what if.”  What if there is enough undertone to the tone of Trump’s call to give the mob more impetus to carry on the inquiry?  Or, what if there is not? Here is what happens regardless.

  1.  Congressional Democrats up for reelection in 2020 can either vote to impeach (if it even comes to that) if it helps them gain reelection, or vote against if it will not.   Remember, all politics inevitably are local.  Thirty-one Democrats are running in districts that Trump carried by 10 points or more in 2016.
  2.  At a minimum this continues the “we must oust the corrupt Trump” war that the House has run with for three years now.  We are just guessing, but this inquiry might just last up until, say, roughly the first week of November of 2020.  Fire up the lanterns and the base.
  3.  What if Biden gets tangled up in this mess?  Shouldn’t he have to release his meeting notes and phone calls to Ukraine when he was VP?  As stated above, he’s openly told assembled crowds that he has done exactly what Trump is now accused of.
  4.  If so, doesn’t this further weaken an already weakened Biden campaign?
  5.  If so, doesn’t this turn a crack into a wide open door for a Warren, or Sanders, or Harris, etc. to walk through for the nomination?
  6.  There aren’t enough House votes to impeach.  Even if there was, there certainly aren’t enough Senate votes to convict the President.
  7.  If so, then when it’s all said and done what’s the end game?  The answer of course is “politics.”  And political gain leads to power.  And power leads to control.

The trials of 1692-3 were started after people had been accused of the witchcraft, primarily by teenage girls such as Elizabeth Hubbard, 17, as well as some who were even younger.   Many books, documentaries, movies, and TV shows have examined the Salem trials.

One day many books, documentaries, movies, and TV shows will examine this accusation of wrongdoing as well.  President Trump was once a reality TV star prior to his current gig.  The casting director should choose Trump to play the role of Trump.  And, he or she should choose Alexandria Octavio Cortez to play the role of the very imaginative teenage girl.  And, it now seems certain that, reluctantly, Nancy Pelosi will direct the expose.

Lights, camera, action!

 

 

Rub the Lamp

Posted on by thependulumswings staff
Canadian leader Justin Trudeau’s campaign for national elections was hit Wednesday by the publication of a photo showing him in “brownface” makeup at a costume party in 2001.

We have questions.  One, was Aladdin a racist movie?  Two, when then teacher Justin Trudeau dressed as an Aladdin character in 2001 for the annual school dinner that was themed “Arabian Nights” was he furthering sterotypes and committing a racist act?  Was Trudeau’s apology for doing so, politics aside, really necessary?  When he dressed that night, and likely many others at the British Columbia school party did similarly, did he or others think what they were doing was wrong?  If he did, should he have apologized any time in the last 18 years?  If he should have apologized, why didn’t he?

We have answers.  No.  No.  No.  No.  Yes.   And, hmm, good question.

Aladdin debuted in 1992 produced by Walt Disney.  It was remade in 2019 and grossed one billion dollars worldwide.  Will Smith was the lead in the 2019 remake.  It seems like Walt Disney, a ton of movie goers, and Will Smith seem to think it wasn’t racist.

The dressed for the party Trudeau in 2001 was doing nothing different than the movie writers, producers, casting, cast, directors, and producers did in 1992.  Did he give getting “brownfaced” a second thought then?  It’s highly unlikely, and it was highly unnecessary as well that he do so.  Intent matters.

Trudeau, who launched his reelection campaign a week ago, said he should have known better.  “I’m pissed off at myself, I’m disappointed in myself,” Trudeau told reporters traveling with him on his campaign plane.  Perhaps he could get a make believe role in the next remake.  He is “sooooo” redfaced about being caught redhanded being brownfaced. This sounds “sooooo” 2019 politically correct that we wish we could rub a genie’s lamp and make it all stop.

We wonder how long he has been beating himself up for this heinous act.  Our guess is that the faux self flogging only began right after Time magazine posted the photo, which it says was published in the yearbook from the West Point Grey Academy where Trudeau worked as a teacher before entering politics. The photo depicts Trudeau wearing a turban and robe, with dark makeup on his hands, face and neck.

Trudeau has been admired by liberals around the world for his progressive policies.  Canada has accepted more refugees than the United States in the last three years.  His Liberal Party government has also strongly advocated free trade.  He faces a very stiff challenge from Conservative leader Andrew Scheer.  But, being politically correct knows no political boundaries.

One of the three wishes Aladdin had for the Genie was to get out of the “cave of wonders.”  We don’t live in a cave.  Therefore, we don’t wonder why he apologized after the photo surfaced and not before.

Bad acting comes and goes.  But, we hope that the curtain never falls on authenticity.  Somebody rub the lamp and wish it all away.

Know When to Say “Uncle.”

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Budweiser, in a responsible drinking campaign several years back, coined the phrase “know when to say when.”   Remember growing up when you were involved in a little physical tussle, skirmish, wrestling match, etc. and one side had enough they would say “uncle.”  Why would they say “uncle?”  It seems that while “crying uncle” is today regarded as an Americanism, its origins go all the way back to the Roman Empire. Roman children, when beset by a bully, would be forced to say “Patrue, mi Patruissimo,” or “Uncle, my best Uncle,” in order to surrender and be freed.

So, when should Uncle Joe Biden’s team say “uncle?”  Preposterous you say?  We actually think that Joe Biden means well.  We think that he thinks that he can continue to do something, or has done something in his 32 years in public office to make a positive difference.  But.

Wasn’t it just three years ago that very suddenly people named Bush and Clinton looked old and sounded so “yesterday?”  What does that make Biden look like and sound like today?

Ronald Reagan’s detractors pointed out repeatedly when he had a “senior moment” or three that he might no longer be fit to hold the highest office in the land in his second term.  Reagan exited the oval office for good after term two at the tender age of 77.  Biden would already be 77 if he won when sworn into the office.

Don’t you wonder why he passed on the chance to run one final time after he served eight straight years as VP under Obama?  Would the timing ever be better?  Did he think it was Hillary’s turn?  Please.  Who thinks like that when they need to have the drive, bravado, tenacity, and “can do” attitude to handle the insane pressure of the top job? When has that stopped someone who wanted something?  Or, was he just plain tired?

Several weeks ago he reminded us in his service to his country as VP that he had a chance to speak to some of the survivors and families touched by the Parkland School shooting.  The problem, of course, was that he wasn’t in office then.  His team said that he was referring to the Sandy Hook school shooting.  Hmm.

A few weeks later, when America was on it’s heels from the back to back mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton, Biden spoke to gun control needs again and referenced these shootings in Houston and Michigan.  Well, that’s a wrong city in the right state and the wrong state when attempting to recall a city in another state.  Jeez.

Yesterday, to an assembled crowd, he advanced  the idea of an $8000 child care credit for families and said that it would put 720 million women back to work.  You can see the short clip here.  We aren’t convinced that one begets the other.  Further, when you subtract men and children from the estimated 330 million who call America home, you might get to 80-90 million women in all.

Remember, all of this is happening 14 months out from the general election.  There are 11, yes 11, Democratic Presidential debates scheduled prior to the nomination.  Then, the survivor gets to tangle with the man who loves to get people to say “uncle,” one Donald J. Trump.

Most incumbents, and all front runners, tend to limit their exposure and by definition limit the number and length of the debates.  Donald J. is not a  “most” incumbent.

Current odds on Biden to not be the Democratic nominee is minus $400.  You bet $400 to win $100 if he doesn’t gain the nomination fair and square.  You also win the 100 bucks if Uncle Joe says “uncle.”

“I want to be clear, I’m not going nuts,” Biden said Friday two weeks ago. The former vice president’s clarification came before he mistakenly praised Vermont when asked about his impression of Keene, N.H.   Painful.

Father Time is undefeated.  Uncle Joe might be best served by saying “uncle” before he is defeated.

 

 

 

 

Too Many Cooks Spoil the Broth.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Yesterday the US Census Department released it’s annual report Income and Poverty in the United States:2018.  It’s 77 pages of some heavy statistical comparisons of who we are, how much we make, and how we are doing v. previous years.   In general there is pretty good news in it.

More Americans than ever are working.  Wages rose an average of 3.3% for men and women alike.  The percent of families and singles living in poverty reached record lows.  These wins occurred regardless of skin color as well.   Economists find much to like during a deep dive into deep details.

Trump’s unprecedented combination of  “Hire American” and economic growth policies is helping create those wage gains nationwide.  The growth policies pressure companies to hire more workers.

What follows is excerpted from a Breibart article printed yesterday.

The “Hire American” policy suppresses the inflow of legal and illegal migrants and also blocks demands from businesses for special infusions of cheap foreign labor, such as extra refugees, asylum-seekers, visa workers, and legal immigrants. 

Trump’s low-immigration policies have prompted many progressives and Democrats to claim he is racist. But his growth and “Hire American” combination is pressuring companies to compete for Americans workers — including blacks and Latinos — by offering higher wages and better benefits.

One expected impact of the shortage is a growing number of non-white Americans who are being hired and are getting wage increases.

Each year about 4 million Americans enter the workforce after high school or college graduation.  This includes about 800k of more highly skilled professionals in  the business, engineering , medical, etc. world.

But the federal government then imports about 1.1 million legal immigrants and refreshes a resident population of about 1.5 million white-collar visa workers.

The net effect of the two keeps the labor wage market in check even in good economic times.  In tougher times it drives the supply of good workers up and wages are held in check or even decrease.   This makes American workers from all corners unhappy.  This makes the corner of Wall Street happy.  Good supply and low prices of in demand assets is always welcome by shareholders.

Which brings us to claims that Trump is a racist for his immigration and buy/hire America(s).  Maybe he is a racist.  It isn’t today’s post purpose to discuss.

It’s purpose is to ask if you scream about the amount of college debt, are concerned about individuals ability to repay, and want it forgiven by the government should you reexamine the effect of immigration on a society who’s population growth relative to yesteryear has slowed.  If more work qualified immigrants (legal or not) enter the work force percentage wise v. US qualified workers you exacerbate the problem.

Wall St. benefits.  Americans scream that the rich get richer.   Students struggle with loans.  Americans scream that we should help them. Millennials struggle to find work.  Americans scream about the labor market.  Wages rise too slowly.  Americans scream about the income gap.

A good recipe has just the right amount of ingredients working together for a better meal.   Balancing the outcome is a very delicate process.  Put too much of one ingredient in and you spoil the soup.  There is a big pot on the stove right now.  Shouldn’t we step back and let the head chef decide how much of one is too much of one?  After all can’t we agree that home cooked meals taste best?

One Love That Is Shared by Two

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

In a interview with the Washington Post earlier this week noted progressive Barbara Streisand described the United States electoral college system as “antiquated” and advocated replacing it with a system that allows the winner of the popular vote to win the election.

She went on to say, “If I could, I would end the antiquated electoral college. Twice in the last 20 years the popular vote winner was denied the presidency. This is an assault on our democratic principles, where the dictum should hold true: one person, one vote.”

And she isn’t the only voice from the left touting a change away from the now 243 year old way of electing presidents.  South Bend, Indiana mayor and announced Democratic Presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg suggested making the reform as well calling it undemocratic.  Streisand would change it now if she could as she said, while Mayor Pete would do so down the road a bit.

We wonder if of the above is exactly why our founding fathers put the process in place at the outset.   We submit the following counterpoints.
  • That is, they had the foresight to realize that a ground swell could occur.  And when it did a simple popular vote taken on the matter could eliminate the electoral college vote and replace it with, well, a simple popular vote.  Stated differently, over the course of time, this would open up the opportunity to repeatedly manipulate how the president was elected.
  • What Barbara should know, and likely does, is if one person could do anything unilaterally in our union it would not be a democracy.
  • Citing twice in the last 20 years as a reason fails to speak to the fact that a) its happened only five times in 243 years, and b) it happened in a span of 12 years when in 1876 Rutherford B. Hayes won the electoral college and lost the popular vote and again in 1888 when Benjamin Harrison did the same.  The logic sounds much like two bad hurricanes in 20 years proves climate change, so we must change and now.
  • And, we’re supposed to be United States, not necessarily always united people.  States, as an entity all to themselves, have rights in our union and therefore each have two senators with equal say to senators from other states.
  • Buttigieg says that we won’t know in the 2030’s which party would benefit.  One, yes we do Pete.  Two, if we don’t know which would benefit why change from the current, unless you don’t believe in states’ rights.
  • Buttigieg hails from Indiana.   It’s a state that could be the poster child for why the electoral college is in place.  It has a) below average population making the two electoral senate seats important to them, b) is driven by farming creating a need for perspective that is anything but urban (ask them right now if they want a voice in who is the next president considering the effect on the state that tariffs are having).

The 77 year old Oscar winning Streisand might be an expert on “antiquated.”  It looks more and more like her party’s current front runner sure does.   But she is no expert on democratic principles.  She should  know that what she and other left voices are advocating to eliminate this “assault on our democratic principles” is actually an assault on our democratic principles.

Aren’t the real experts our founding fathers?

Rates Fall But Stocks Don’t

Posted on by Jim Carlton

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

JIM CARLTON
Managing Director
Chief Investment Officer

Friends

 

Yields on bonds fell this morning which spooked the stock market at the open, but the bulls rallied the troops and stock buyers appeared and drove sticks higher by midday. Trading was quiet in the afternoon, but the bulls can be encouraged that they were able to hold onto the hard earned gains.

 

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 258 points to finish the day at 26,036. The S&P 500 was up 18 points to close at 2,887. Gold was down $3.10 to trade at $1,548 per ounce, while oil was up $1.00 to trade at $55.93 per barrel WTI.

 

As mentioned, interest rate declines have been triggering stock sell offs. Did we break that cycle today, or was it just a one day phenomenon? It will be something to watch for.

 

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX  77380 
(281) 298-2700 Phone
(877) 824-4299 Toll Free
(281) 298-2760 Fax

[email protected]        www.chjwealthmanagement.com

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

*Numbers and figures sourced from the following: Bloomberg.com, CNBC.com and Finance.Yahoo.com.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

CHJ Wealth Management,
10200 Grogan’s Mill Road,
Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380

“How” and “Why” Matter.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Journalism 101 teaches to insure that the “who”, “what”, “when”, and “where” is included in every lead of a story.  Optional, but also important, is the “how” and the “why.”  Getting the first four “w’s” in is relatively easy.  Figuring out the how and the why is harder as it sometimes requires some interpretation.

Take late last week as an example.   In a span of 48 hours on Thursday and Friday (when) President Trump (who) castigated (what) Fed Chairman Powell (who)
on Twitter (where) of not being aggressive enough with rate cuts and economic commentary.  He barely took a breath, then he ORDERED American companies importing manufactured goods and the like from China (he pronounces it as CHII Nah) to find a way to bring the manufacturing back to the U.S.  By mid Friday morning he announced further tariffs(import taxes) almost across the board on goods coming from across the Pacific from said China.

The result of his actions and words seems, at the outset, that Powell said nothing, American companies did nothing not already planned, and China said “we’ll see your bet, and raise you one or five.”  The other result is again, at least for a day, the American stock market and those still open abroad, tumbled hard.

We think his political base added the to the story by questioning “how” he did this?

How he swung three times seemed almost petulant, petulant like a child that is.  In the Trump Tower when you hold the decisions as to who gets massive building contracts and what your expectations are and when they get paid is one thing.  When you ORDER (we use all caps because he did in the Tweet) American companies around you cross way too far into government attempted control on free enterprise at a minimum.  At the maximum you sound like a second grader who doesn’t get his way on the playground.  Plus, it’s the exact opposite of the many government regulations that he has pulled back to free businesses up.

In the tariff tiff he seems to think that he can bully China like he bullied Mexico.  Maybe.  Maybe not.  It seems to have not worked so far.

The Powell undressing is tired.  Take the repeated rants indoors already.  You hired him Mr. President.

We think even his political base questioned “why” as well.

Why did he do all of the above?  Well, we admit that every time he seems to have face planted off a newly built tower he actually has packed a parachute and landed just fine, and ready to fight for the American people for another cause on another day.

And, just this AM he is tweeting that China is ready to come to the table.  Maybe Powell will cut again and again and sooner.   And, maybe more American companies will build or rebuild factories here.

But, when how Americans feel about their investments (401k, education, house) turns south, they stay home if they voted for you prior, and turn out if they voted against you prior.  The very recession talk (at this point talk) that you are trying to squash becomes self fulfilling.

The tightrope that is being walked is high, higher than most Trump Towers built.  The fall would be unpleasant for all.  How you walk across, and why you walk across matters greatly in the next 15 months.

On Thursday you anointed yourself as “The Chosen One” to combat the decades long China advantage in import and export tariffs.  China seems to have chosen too.  Their choice looks like they want to see if  “The Chosen One” is chosen again in November of 2020.

A small fracture in the Trump base and someone else will need to “Keep America Great.”  Perhaps there will be another “Chosen One?”  Although that seems as cloudy as the smoke created from last week’s outbursts.  The lead candidate against Trump was in New Hampshire, was asked about New Hampshire, and sung the praises of Delaware.

It’s another week.  Can the American political leaders gaffe meter possibly keep up?