Record Highs On Early Trading/Early Close Tomorrow

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

As expected, it was a very quiet day of trading. Stocks were
able to squeak out a small gain by the close, but volume was light and
volatility was muted. We do have the ADP private payroll jobs number tomorrow, and
the non-farm payroll number on Friday, so that might add a little spice to the
situation before the end of the week.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial was up 69 points to
close at 26,786. The S&P 500 was up 8 points to finish the day at 2,973. Gold
was up $27 to trade at $1,416 per ounce, while oil was down $2.72 to trade at
$56.37 per barrel WTI.

With 4th of July on Thursday, the markets close
early tomorrow at 12:00 noon our time- so we will be closing the office early. We’ll
let you know if anything happens during the shortened trading session tomorrow
before heading out for the day.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

I’ll Scratch Your Back

Did you get paid yesterday?  It’s very likely that you did.  It was the end of the month.   You always and only get paid for what you have earned.  Paychecks are remuneration for the past.  Joe Biden likely got paid as well, and twice if he takes Social Security.   His checks come from the US Government.  They are a federal government pension plan check and Social Security check.  He earned them over his many years of civil service to our country based on how the system is set up.

But, he is learning rapidly, recently, that there isn’t too much civil about our country today.  And, he is learning rapidly that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.  You have to earn it.   And, he is learning that how the system works today has little to do with how it was set up “back in the day.”

Back in the day Ronald Reagan invited Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill, an old curmudgeon, old school Democrat from Bahhhstan, down the hill for an occasional tip o’ the cup of the whiskey of his choice.  Together they would iron out their differences (compromise) as the ice was melting and get to a position where both felt good bringing back a deal to their respective parties.  And, both thought that America had won.

Even as recently as 2011, President Obama was caught on a hot mic as leaned over and told Russian Dmitry Medvedev to give him time to get reelected and he could work out a deal with them.  Medvedev promised to relay the info to Putin.  You can see it here.

So, maybe it surprised Sleepy Joe when Kamala Harris took him to the woodshed last week on the nationally televised debate over his “working relationship” with known segregationists in Congress a couple of decades back.  It shouldn’t have.  He already told us that he got that past behaviors don’t translate to today’s world or political climate.  “I get it, I get it,” he said.  You can see him explain that over and over here.

We even had the left leaning media over the weekend tell us how bad, or reckless, or unprepared President Trump was in reaching out to Kim Jung Un unexpectedly while he was in Japan for an impromptu stroll on the communist land of North Korea.

You remember “hold your friends close and your enemies closer,” don’t you?  Apparently, embraces of any sort with friend or foe are now old school.

The new school seems to be that there is only one way.  And, when a party with power decides on a path it expects all to toe the line, no exceptions, no negotiations.  So, we wonder, is Joe Biden someone who can operate in the new world order?

And, most of all, does he want to earn his way?  His demeanor daily and debate disaster last week scream otherwise.

In fact, wasn’t his time to strike when he was VP to the two term, popular President Barrack Obama?  History shows that VP’s run immediately after whom they serve under can run no longer.  Biden deferred to Hillary Clinton for some reason.  Maybe he was tired even back then.  As many commercials remind us, the aging process waits for no one.  Four years later, Joe is four years older.

Obama came from left field to win, then win again.  Trump came from right field to win, and might win again.  Biden looks and sounds more like McCain, Romney, Hillary, and Jeb Bush than his fellow Democratic nominee hopefuls.   It’s way too early to predict, but the country is in a very different place.

And, there is no back to scratch nor whiskey to pour anymore.

Get some rest Joe.

 

 

Stocks Top Off A Great First Half

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

The bulls were content to sit on their gains as the quarter
came to a close today. Market participants will be keeping an eye on
developments coming out of the G20 meetings over the weekend, but as we look into
the second half of the year (can you believe that?), the bulls have some
headwinds to navigate, not the least of which could be a developing earnings
recession.

As for today, by the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average
was up 72 points to finish the day at 26,599. The S&P 500 was up 16 points
to close at 2,941. Gold was up $1 to trade at $1,413 per ounce, while oil was
down $1.44 to trade at $57.99 per barrel WTI.

It was a very good first half of the year for the bulls. As
mentioned, many challenges lie ahead as we enter the second half of the year.
We’ll know what transpired on the China trade front when we fire things up on
Monday, and then we’ll begin to look ahead to the upcoming corporate earnings
season. Trade, corporate earnings, a jobs report and inflation numbers will all
be considered when the FOMC meets in late July. Expectations are that the Fed
will cut rates at that meeting, but that remains to be seen. Let’s first enjoy
the gains from the first half of the year.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jim

Ten Piece Nuggets-Debating the Debate

Round two of two of the first Democratic Presidential Debates went round and around last evening.  Below are ten nuggets for you consumption that cover thoughts on both days with an emphasis on last evening.  Some nuggets are heavy.  Some are light.  All are spiced just right.

  1.  For better or worse, the Democratic Party’s center is now further left than ever.  When the ten hopefuls were asked last evening to raise their hands if their healthcare plans included free medical care for “undocumented” immigrants, ten of ten hands were raised.  Joe Biden looked to his left and right and then figured it was a good idea to follow the crowd.
  2. Sleepy Joe took shots across the bow from Sanders, Stalwell, and Harris.  Three times he was given thirty seconds by one of the five MSNBC moderators to retort.  In none of the three did old Joe seem prepared.  Twice he stopped in mid sentence and said, ” I see that my time is up.”  One wonders, after last evening, if indeed Joe’s time is up.
  3. Right after the debates when the candidates and their “spin handlers” look for microphones to continue driving home what they stand for, Biden spent time talking to a few supporters from the crowd.  When he finally did answer two questions from an unidentified reporter he was somewhat awkwardly pulled away by his wife.  He said something half audible as he left the mic that sounded like, “that’s my wife and I need to go.”  Agreed.
  4. This morning’s New York Post front page has a picture of the ten hands being raised by the candidates answering the medical question above.  The bolded font headline rephrased the question as “Who Wants to Lose the Election?”  Did we mention that the party’s center has shifted left?
  5. Kamala Harris’ shot at Biden stemmed from his resistance decades ago to support school busing to eliminate segregation.  She dramatically used her upbringing in the moment explaining that as a second grader she was in the first generation of that very heated time in America, and what it meant to her.  Clearly she had prepped very well for the moment and delivered her consternation at him flawlessly.  She was kind enough to say that she didn’t believe he was a racist all the while pummeling his legislative past.  Biden looked like he needed smelling salts and a standing eight count from the moderators.
  6.  Winning in debates can mean a lot of things to a lot of candidates.  For example, former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, an evening prior, went from “who?” to “that one impressed me, let me hear more.”  On to round two he goes.  Ditto for Tulsi Gabbard.  On to round two she goes.  For entrepreneur Andrew Yang, it meant advancing his thought of offering $1,000 to each family each month for a cool cost of $3.2 trillion dollars.  He did this while wearing no tie to the proceedings, and speaking for a grand total of three minutes of the 120 minute debate.  A man of few words, afterwards he had no comment on where Yin was.  In to the round file he goes.
  7. But, the clear winner in BBR’s eyes and ears over the last two nights was Senator Kamala Harris.  She commanded the stage with two men to her right (Bernie and Joe) that had way more experience on a stage as big as this.  Her command of the spoken word is darn good, with pauses and inflection interspersed at the right time and in proper doses.  In short, she looks capable of being in it for the long run.
  8.  Mayor Pete Buttigieg certainly held his own.  When he speaks he brings logic and sincerity along for the taking. His answer to the police shooting mess (regardless of how you see the matter) his South Bend town is in was well crafted given the low ceiling.   It’s a really crowded field.  And, at 37, he is short on experience in public service and private employment.   But, given where Obama and Trump came from and where they landed, the White House, the mayor’s campaign will be interesting to watch.  Maybe he’s a 2024 or 2028 guy.
  9. BBR looks forward to the next round when hopefully the money has dried up on half of the field so that real debating can begin.  MSNBC tossed plenty of softballs at plenty of beer league players.  It’s time to go to the next level.  After all, someone needs to ask the field how these candidates intend to pay for all of these promises.  Free healthcare, free college, free community college, college debt forgiveness, unlimited immigration, and a free chicken in every pot sounds quite expensive.  Bernie might already be shaking a tin cup as commuters arrive on Wall St. this AM.
  10. It’s awfully early to predict.  However, an avid reader of BBR put $100 on Donald Trump to win the GOP nomination three years ago at 17-1 when The Donald was still nicknaming Jeb Bush as Low Energy and Marco Rubio as Lil’.  It’s great money if you have that kind of vision.  We don’t know what Kamala Harris’ odds on gaining the nomination are at this moment.  But, we suspect Vegas lowered them a good bit after last night.   They should.  Polls aside, she looks like the one galloping to the front to us.

Get some rest Joe.

 

 

Lefty and Shorty Debate the Debate.

If Lefty and Shorty were still with us their early morning banter might have gone like this.

Lefty and Shorty sat quietly in the still, humid, summer night air.  It was after 2 AM on their graveyard shift and cars were nowhere to be found.  Lefty- Why did we stay open 24 hours Shorty?  Shorty- So that we can discuss how the first of two Democratic Party debates went last evening.  It was a graveyard for many nominee hopefuls.

Lefty sat to the left of Shorty.  Imagine that.  Shorty sat on the shorter of the two “halves” of the 55 gallon drum. Imagine that.  Each were cut down to size and retrofitted with a soft cushion top.

Lefty- So you watched the two hour debate?  Shorty- Most of it.  I was flipping back and forth with the Commodores.

Lefty- What do you mean?  You were watching an old school concert, too?  Shorty- No.  The Vanderbilt Commodores won the NCAA Baseball National Championship.   Lefty– Oh.  OK.  I guess two straight hours with ten wanna be’s is indeed taxing.  Shorty– Don’t bring up taxing.  I heard it enough last night.  And, “straight” is an insensitive word.

Lefty- What did you think of the MSNBC and NBC broadcast?  Shorty- It was fine except when they had technical difficulties and had to cut away.  That was weird.  Lefty- The hot mics went cold and the cold mics ran hot.  Shorty-Climate change?  Lefty- Oh please.  Shorty- Was it the Russian interference they have all been talking about for two years?  Lefty-Oh please.  Shorty-Maybe Nadler can add it to his list of questions for the July 17 Mueller testimony.

Lefty- Ahem.  So what did you think of the polling leader in this first group, Elizabeth Warren?  Shorty- Well, at least when she spoke she did so in her native (American) tongue.  Lefty- Huh?  Shorty- Well Beto and Booker decided to spend half of their ten minutes of fame practicing their Rosetta Stone Spanish.  Lefty-It was televised on Telemundo as well.  Shorty– Don’t they have closed captioned translating English to Spanish?

Lefty- Good grief.  Moving on, how about Ohio Rep Tim Ryan?  Shorty- If Tim Ryan fell in a forest and no one heard it, would it be sound?  Lefty- This is going well. Shorty-Saving Rep Ryan isn’t coming to a theater near you soon.  Lefty- Did you like any performance?  Shorty- I thought NY Mayor Bill DeBlasio stood tall.  Lefty- Interesting.  Shorty- He must be at least six foot four, and he proved that he is no paper straw man.

Lefty- Former Maryland Rep John Delaney seemed reasonable.  Shorty- He did.  He just looks too much like Tim Conway.  Dorf on debate.  Lefty- You’re irascible Shorty.  Shorty- At least I don’t look and sound angry about everything like Booker.

Lefty- Did anyone do well through your jaundiced eyes?  Shorty- Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro did.  Lefty– Finally some progress.  Shorty- Progressive.

Lefty- How did Washington Governor Jay Inslee do?  Shorty- Who?  Lefty- I guess not so well. Shorty– Was he the one near the far right end of the stage that kept raising his hand?  Lefty- That’s him!  Shorty-  He must have wanted to be excused to go to the genderless bathrooms provided.

Lefty-  This is your last chance.  Did you find it odd that in two hours not one shot was taken at front runner Joe Biden?  Shorty- He likely would not have heard it anyway.  He was probably sleepy eyed by then.

Shorty– One debate in, and America is so done with seven or so of these hopefuls.  Lefty- And, for now, I am so done with you.

Bernie Isn’t (that) Crazy.

Alice Cooper called it.  “School’s out, for summer.”  But, soon, Rodney Dangerfield and others will return.  “Hey, I am going back to school!”  And, when they do they need to bring their checkbook, and then some.

No one disputes the following.  One, the cost of a four year public college/university education in these 50 United States has spiraled out of control.  And, two, the debt that undergraduates and post graduates have incurred is huge at 1.6 trillion dollars and mounting by the moment.

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and a few others have led or joined the battle cry to make college tuition free and/or forgive the outstanding student debt.  Each plan to do so essentially redistributes wealth from taxpayers to students and is fraught with inconsistencies.  More later.

But now, we ask, have you ever heard of Sallie Mae?  SLM Corporation (commonly known as Sallie Mae; originally the Student Loan Marketing Association) is a publicly traded U.S. company that provides consumer banking loans.   Its structure has changed dramatically since it was set up in 1973.   At first, it was a government entity that serviced federal education loans. It then became private in 2004 and started offering private student loans.

The company’s primary business is originating, servicing, and collecting private education loans.  Sallie Mae previously originated federally guaranteed student loans originated under the Federal Family Education Loan Program and worked as a servicer and collector of federal student loans on behalf of the Department of Education. 

So, the U.S. government started Sallie Mae.  It then decided the task too tall for itself and allowed it to privatize.  And it’s now government workers who are crying loudest about the soaring student debt.   And, they should.

We took a peak at Sallie Mae’s (now Navient Corporation, the largest servicer of federal student loans and collector on behalf of the U.S. Dept of Education) “generous” loan offers and terms there of last evening.  What’s our conclusion?  You might as well charge your education on your Visa or MasterCard.

Navient loans offered today start at a 7.5% interest rate.  They are tied to a marker of interest rates known as LIBOR, plus 5%.  They are variable, can even change monthly up or down, and are allowed to float as high as 25% if the market so chooses.  That’s 25% as a high side risk!  Seven point five percent isn’t cheap to begin with.  Ford will give you zero percent financing for that new F150.  Sallie Mae and Uncle Sam want more, much more.

But it gets worse.  Let’s take a 40k dollar loan as an example.  You have three options to repay.  All start with paying either $25 bucks a month while still in school, or the interest accumulated each month of $233, or foregoing paying anything at all until you have completed your education.  Tick tock goes the interest clock from day one of course.  The choices are bad, poor, and terrible.

The structured repayment schedule over the course of the next dozen or so years costs about $500 a month at the 7.5% rate, and much more if rates rise.  The total interest is 29k on top of the 40k.   But, here is the kicker of all kickers.  There is no interest saved for paying down the principal in any accelerated manner.  There is no incentive/gain for attempting to get out of the debt.  Sign up and Sallie starts counting her coins.

There is no bankruptcy filing that exempts anyone from repaying either.  Federal laws are written to absolve you of debt incurred when you can no longer keep your head above water, except if that debt is owed to your government.  It’s the golden rule.  He who has the gold makes the rules.  Sallie collects the gold for he who makes the rules.

Making college free (and it wouldn’t be free, just paid by others) and forgiving debt (and that would just be adding to the federal debt that we all are accountable for as well) isn’t the answer.  No answer is that simple.  And no answer should only be for the selected ones who are in debt today or in school tomorrow.   It needs to be equitable.   For example, shouldn’t trade schools be “free” too?  You can’t discriminate for just colleges can you Elizabeth?

Their approach is a big band aid and is designed to garner votes from the young and naive.  The bandage needs to be ripped off of the whole mess and the root cause needs a vaccination.   Otherwise, many will continue to fall down, scrape their knees, and eventually the wound will get infected.   A great start to this would be to examine the ridiculous terms of Sallie Mae and others in this federal loan business for students.  If you didn’t save for college at least there should be an incentive to get out of debt sooner.

Maybe Crazy Bernie isn’t so crazy after all in attempting to address this.  It’s just how, not handouts, that need to be looked at and changed.  Start with Sallie Mae and others just like her.   And, like the $22 trillion dollar debt, and ballooning government, the sooner the better.

Donald, You’re No Ronald!

When Senator Lloyd Benson was squared off against Senator Dan Quayle in the Vice Presidential Debate in 1988, Quayle, desperate to establish himself as a qualified VP running mate, dropped a JFK reference.   Benson dropped a haymaker on Quayle, deadpanning “you’re no Jack Kennedy.

We have resisted comparing Donald Trump to Ronald Reagan for fear of a haymaker ourselves, as Donald is no Ronald.  While each had roles on the TV screen or the big screen previous to ascending to the biggest role in all of the land, they differ in approach far more than they are similar.

Start with the hair styles please.  Ronald had a thick, dark, wavy mane seemingly woven to his head since birth to die for.  Donald has a thin, white/gray whisp that needs to be woven to his head for fear of it flying away.  Ronald was a statesman.  Donald states what he thinks and feels in non too subtle way.  Ronald had his first lady Nancy incessantly shaping his public perception.  Donald has had quite a few ladies and his first lady appears to step back and watch the bullfight from afar.

But, they have one big thing in common.  They know leverage when they see it.  And, when they see it they use it.  And, when they use it, they use it effectively.

Ronald watched as Iran held American hostages for 444 days till the very end of the Jimmy Carter’s mediocre presidency.  Mysteriously, on Reagan’s inauguration day, Iran freed the hostages.  Ronald played the good cop role on a horse in a TV western a few times.  He always got the bad guy and rode off into the sunset with the pretty woman.  Iran wanted nothing to do with this cowboy in real life.  Did Reagan’s team advance anything to Iran about the consequences of a continued standoff?  Probably.  Enough said.

Trump called North Korean dictator Kim Jung-Un “Rocket Man” in front of a United Nations gathering.  It was not very subtle.  It was the equivalent of Nikita Khrushchev’s shoe-banging incident during the 902nd Plenary Meeting of the UN General Assembly held in New York in 1960. During the session Nikita Khrushchev, First Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, pounded his shoe on his delegate-desk in protest of a speech by Philippine delegate Lorenzo Sumulong.  It was not so subtle.

Both Ronald and Trump were effective, style points aside.

“Rocket Man” is but one of many verbal jabs, hooks, or TKO’s that the Donald has thrown.  It is for that very reason that we continue to be amazed by how wrong the media continues to miss on understanding his approach, and therefore his effectiveness.  Every time he jabs, tweets, nicknames, and/or insults a foreign leader or an entire country the media screams in unison that “the sky is falling, the sky is falling.”  Except, it isn’t.

In fact it’s the opposite.  Trump threatened tariffs on Mexico a couple of weeks back and gave them a short deadline to help on their southern border controlling Central American illegal inflow, and on our southern border helping protect our illegal inflow.  Foes of The Donald said many things. “He can’t do that.”  “You can’t use tariffs to control immigration.”  “It’s unprecedented.”  “He’s offended our neighbor again.”  The stock market said, “Hold on cowboy.”  “This will wreck certain imported products.”  “Prices on imports will go through the roof.”  One Einstein even lamented, “the price of avocados will go up three fold.”

Our guess is that Donald doesn’t like avocados.  And, he doesn’t like illegal immigration even more.  So, with zero help from his Democrat friends, Donald got help on his own from his southern friends.  Mexico, after all of these years, offered immediate help.  Fifteen thousand of their finest are now being deployed on our joint border to stem the flow northward.  Another two thousand went south to do the same.  It’s amazing what the right carrot on the right stick can do.  And, Wall St. rallied once more.

And, it’s equally amazing how many people, tv commentators, and countries totally fail to understand President Trump’s motives and results derived from them. Ronald won with style and grace.  Donald wins with a hammer and a chainsaw.

Donald paints outside of the lines.  Donald is no Ronald.  But, he is Michelangelo in the art of the deal.

 

 

If and When, Together Again.

When if becomes when the dynamics of a sequence of events can change dramatically as they unfold.   Unexpected final results can happen.  Nothing more unexpected in political history ever happened than when The Donald went from polling at single digits as a Republican hopeful, after first announcing, to being elected President of the United States in November of 2016.

Last night a sure if became a when at 8pm EST when Donald J. Trump officially announced that he was running for his second term as President of the United States.

In 2016 Trump recognized America’s strong desire for change from the status quo.  But a series of events helped his magic carpet ride.

If Bernie Sanders doesn’t gain real traction on the left side of the left, then Hillary Rodham Clinton doesn’t have to steer her train wreck of a campaign into that far lane.  When she did, did she lose some of the moderate Democrats?

If Crazy Bernie doesn’t stay in the race as long as he did, does Hillary have to campaign as hard as she did?  When he did, Hillary was extended to more cities, more speeches, more TV appearances, more bad food, and more planes, trains, and automobiles.  If you couldn’t see fatigue negatively affecting a presidential campaign, when will you?

Enter Joe Biden for President in 2020.  He’ll be 77 this November, and 78 by the time voters head to the polls in November of 2020.  It’s awfully early to pronounce him as the nominee, but he is the front runner by about a lap and a half.

So, what if?  If all of the left that stand to the left of Bernie fall by the wayside, does Bernie get the lion’s share of their votes?  If he does, how far does Bernie go?  Does Bernie know when to say when for the good of his party?  If he goes the distance v. Biden like he did v. Hillary, does fatigue set in for Biden to the extent it did on Hillary?

His few public appearances so far have been less than impressive.  His “I’m running for prez intro speech” was filled with mispronunciations and other verbal stumbles..  His voice trails off often.  His gestures and gait seem tentative.

Trump has already seized on this, relabeling the former “creepy Uncle Joe” as “sleepy Joe.”  Trump’s running against thin air in his own party.  If Biden emerges as the tired nominee, a fresh Trump will go full frontal assault on him.  It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Trump ask for more debates, not less.  It’s usually the other way around as the contender tries to slay the defender and asks for more.  But, there is nothing usual in the world of politics today.

Not if, but when it all unfolds the unexpected probably should be expected.    Meantime, get some sleep Joe.  You are going to need it.

Bullish Anticipation

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

Nothing like jumping the gun. Stocks rallied mightily today
on hopes that the Fed is going to begin to cut interest rates as soon as
tomorrow, and on a tweet from the President that he had spoken to Chinese President
Xi. Add in departing ECB head Draghi’s dovish statements and you have a
trifecta of positive events for the bulls to run with.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 353 points
to finish the day at 26,465. The S&P 500 was up 28 points to close at
2,917. Gold was up $6 to trade at $1,349 per ounce, while oil was up $2.17 to
trade at $54.09 per barrel WTI.

We’ll get the Fed decision tomorrow at 1:00 our time, and
then the Fed Chair’s press conference at 1:30. I would be surprised if the Fed
actually cuts interest rates tomorrow, but it appears the markets are hopeful.
I do think that the FOMC and the Fed Chair will try to make it clear that they
are ready to cut as soon as the July meeting, if the economic data warrants it.
But, he has to be careful not to cast fear that things are deteriorating so
quickly that the Fed has to come to the rescue.  We’ll find out if the
market is already pricing in that cut (it appears so), and what the reaction
will be if market participants/Fed watchers don’t get the cut or at least the
language they so dearly desire. Stay tuned, we’ll let you know how it all plays
out tomorrow.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

Cashing In on Cashing Out

After taking two flights, and driving through four states, and staying eight days in three different hotels, our summer vacation ended all too soon.  Good times were had by all on food, golf, gifts, hikes, bikes, a baseball game, and the like.  So, it goes without saying that it was smart to get $300, just to be safe, out of the ATM before the journey and all of the festivities started.  Or, was it?

Eight days later just shy of $275 remained in my pocket.  Cash is king, you know.  Or, at least cash was once king.

So, it got our staff wondering last evening.  Will we see a cashless society in the future?  We think the answer is yes.  It’s when, not if.

And, why not?  Every merchant in brick and mortar and any merchant in the virtual world of any kind takes some or all of Visa, MasterCard, Amex, Discover, PayPal, Venmo, Chase Quick pay, etc.  And, everyone has two or more of these forms of payment in their pocket, purse, or mobile device.

Cards give you rewards or cash back.  Cash gives you pesky change back.  What do you do with your loose nickels and dimes?  Ours are in the console of the truck, or in the luggage that we carried.  Sometimes the dreaded pennies make it into the pocket and all of the way into the house.  Then what?  Then they go into the large jar on the top shelf.  We hope the shelf doesn’t crash down one day from the weight of the copper and silver.

It took America two or three generations to nearly stop smoking altogether.  It’ll took Uber and Lyft about a decade to obliterate the dreadful taxi industry.  How long before cash is all but gone?

About the only need for it is when you directly interact with another citizen in the moment.  A tip for for this, or a ticket scalped outside of a venue come to mind.  Little else does.

So when you cash out, who cashes in?  Visa, MasterCard and PayPal come to mind.   Their build out for electronic processing allows hundreds of thousands of transactions a minute placing them far ahead of rivals mentioned above.  A very recent Barron’s article quoted some industry experts that feel like the electronic processing will continue its percentage growth in the high teens yearly for the next five years and perhaps beyond.

Remember when Apple Pay was going to change the world?  Guess who Apple partnered with to facilitate what they could not?  It’s Visa and MasterCard.  It seems like they are everywhere you want them to be.

Business to business is next.  Cutting checks to pay vendors and such is getting cut by the day.  Who’s there to help?  Yep.  It’s the next big growth vehicle for them.

Banks charge merchants and businesses two or three percent for the privilege of accepting these forms of payment and get paid well to do so.   Consumers win (or at least feel like they do) with one or more percent cash and/or points earned coming back to them.

But the real winners?  Yep.  They collect what seems like a very slim 0.15% of each transaction.  Mere pennies on the dollar you say?  Their shelf is very sturdy.  It has to be.  They collect millions and millions of dollars of pennies every day.

Cash was king.   Visa and MasterCard sit on the highest thrones now.