News

Lefty and Shorty Debate the Debate.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

If Lefty and Shorty were still with us their early morning banter might have gone like this.

Lefty and Shorty sat quietly in the still, humid, summer night air.  It was after 2 AM on their graveyard shift and cars were nowhere to be found.  Lefty- Why did we stay open 24 hours Shorty?  Shorty- So that we can discuss how the first of two Democratic Party debates went last evening.  It was a graveyard for many nominee hopefuls.

Lefty sat to the left of Shorty.  Imagine that.  Shorty sat on the shorter of the two “halves” of the 55 gallon drum. Imagine that.  Each were cut down to size and retrofitted with a soft cushion top.

Lefty- So you watched the two hour debate?  Shorty- Most of it.  I was flipping back and forth with the Commodores.

Lefty- What do you mean?  You were watching an old school concert, too?  Shorty- No.  The Vanderbilt Commodores won the NCAA Baseball National Championship.   Lefty– Oh.  OK.  I guess two straight hours with ten wanna be’s is indeed taxing.  Shorty– Don’t bring up taxing.  I heard it enough last night.  And, “straight” is an insensitive word.

Lefty- What did you think of the MSNBC and NBC broadcast?  Shorty- It was fine except when they had technical difficulties and had to cut away.  That was weird.  Lefty- The hot mics went cold and the cold mics ran hot.  Shorty-Climate change?  Lefty- Oh please.  Shorty- Was it the Russian interference they have all been talking about for two years?  Lefty-Oh please.  Shorty-Maybe Nadler can add it to his list of questions for the July 17 Mueller testimony.

Lefty- Ahem.  So what did you think of the polling leader in this first group, Elizabeth Warren?  Shorty- Well, at least when she spoke she did so in her native (American) tongue.  Lefty- Huh?  Shorty- Well Beto and Booker decided to spend half of their ten minutes of fame practicing their Rosetta Stone Spanish.  Lefty-It was televised on Telemundo as well.  Shorty– Don’t they have closed captioned translating English to Spanish?

Lefty- Good grief.  Moving on, how about Ohio Rep Tim Ryan?  Shorty- If Tim Ryan fell in a forest and no one heard it, would it be sound?  Lefty- This is going well. Shorty-Saving Rep Ryan isn’t coming to a theater near you soon.  Lefty- Did you like any performance?  Shorty- I thought NY Mayor Bill DeBlasio stood tall.  Lefty- Interesting.  Shorty- He must be at least six foot four, and he proved that he is no paper straw man.

Lefty- Former Maryland Rep John Delaney seemed reasonable.  Shorty- He did.  He just looks too much like Tim Conway.  Dorf on debate.  Lefty- You’re irascible Shorty.  Shorty- At least I don’t look and sound angry about everything like Booker.

Lefty- Did anyone do well through your jaundiced eyes?  Shorty- Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro did.  Lefty– Finally some progress.  Shorty- Progressive.

Lefty- How did Washington Governor Jay Inslee do?  Shorty- Who?  Lefty- I guess not so well. Shorty– Was he the one near the far right end of the stage that kept raising his hand?  Lefty- That’s him!  Shorty-  He must have wanted to be excused to go to the genderless bathrooms provided.

Lefty-  This is your last chance.  Did you find it odd that in two hours not one shot was taken at front runner Joe Biden?  Shorty- He likely would not have heard it anyway.  He was probably sleepy eyed by then.

Shorty– One debate in, and America is so done with seven or so of these hopefuls.  Lefty- And, for now, I am so done with you.

Bernie Isn’t (that) Crazy.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Alice Cooper called it.  “School’s out, for summer.”  But, soon, Rodney Dangerfield and others will return.  “Hey, I am going back to school!”  And, when they do they need to bring their checkbook, and then some.

No one disputes the following.  One, the cost of a four year public college/university education in these 50 United States has spiraled out of control.  And, two, the debt that undergraduates and post graduates have incurred is huge at 1.6 trillion dollars and mounting by the moment.

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and a few others have led or joined the battle cry to make college tuition free and/or forgive the outstanding student debt.  Each plan to do so essentially redistributes wealth from taxpayers to students and is fraught with inconsistencies.  More later.

But now, we ask, have you ever heard of Sallie Mae?  SLM Corporation (commonly known as Sallie Mae; originally the Student Loan Marketing Association) is a publicly traded U.S. company that provides consumer banking loans.   Its structure has changed dramatically since it was set up in 1973.   At first, it was a government entity that serviced federal education loans. It then became private in 2004 and started offering private student loans.

The company’s primary business is originating, servicing, and collecting private education loans.  Sallie Mae previously originated federally guaranteed student loans originated under the Federal Family Education Loan Program and worked as a servicer and collector of federal student loans on behalf of the Department of Education. 

So, the U.S. government started Sallie Mae.  It then decided the task too tall for itself and allowed it to privatize.  And it’s now government workers who are crying loudest about the soaring student debt.   And, they should.

We took a peak at Sallie Mae’s (now Navient Corporation, the largest servicer of federal student loans and collector on behalf of the U.S. Dept of Education) “generous” loan offers and terms there of last evening.  What’s our conclusion?  You might as well charge your education on your Visa or MasterCard.

Navient loans offered today start at a 7.5% interest rate.  They are tied to a marker of interest rates known as LIBOR, plus 5%.  They are variable, can even change monthly up or down, and are allowed to float as high as 25% if the market so chooses.  That’s 25% as a high side risk!  Seven point five percent isn’t cheap to begin with.  Ford will give you zero percent financing for that new F150.  Sallie Mae and Uncle Sam want more, much more.

But it gets worse.  Let’s take a 40k dollar loan as an example.  You have three options to repay.  All start with paying either $25 bucks a month while still in school, or the interest accumulated each month of $233, or foregoing paying anything at all until you have completed your education.  Tick tock goes the interest clock from day one of course.  The choices are bad, poor, and terrible.

The structured repayment schedule over the course of the next dozen or so years costs about $500 a month at the 7.5% rate, and much more if rates rise.  The total interest is 29k on top of the 40k.   But, here is the kicker of all kickers.  There is no interest saved for paying down the principal in any accelerated manner.  There is no incentive/gain for attempting to get out of the debt.  Sign up and Sallie starts counting her coins.

There is no bankruptcy filing that exempts anyone from repaying either.  Federal laws are written to absolve you of debt incurred when you can no longer keep your head above water, except if that debt is owed to your government.  It’s the golden rule.  He who has the gold makes the rules.  Sallie collects the gold for he who makes the rules.

Making college free (and it wouldn’t be free, just paid by others) and forgiving debt (and that would just be adding to the federal debt that we all are accountable for as well) isn’t the answer.  No answer is that simple.  And no answer should only be for the selected ones who are in debt today or in school tomorrow.   It needs to be equitable.   For example, shouldn’t trade schools be “free” too?  You can’t discriminate for just colleges can you Elizabeth?

Their approach is a big band aid and is designed to garner votes from the young and naive.  The bandage needs to be ripped off of the whole mess and the root cause needs a vaccination.   Otherwise, many will continue to fall down, scrape their knees, and eventually the wound will get infected.   A great start to this would be to examine the ridiculous terms of Sallie Mae and others in this federal loan business for students.  If you didn’t save for college at least there should be an incentive to get out of debt sooner.

Maybe Crazy Bernie isn’t so crazy after all in attempting to address this.  It’s just how, not handouts, that need to be looked at and changed.  Start with Sallie Mae and others just like her.   And, like the $22 trillion dollar debt, and ballooning government, the sooner the better.

Donald, You’re No Ronald!

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

When Senator Lloyd Benson was squared off against Senator Dan Quayle in the Vice Presidential Debate in 1988, Quayle, desperate to establish himself as a qualified VP running mate, dropped a JFK reference.   Benson dropped a haymaker on Quayle, deadpanning “you’re no Jack Kennedy.“

We have resisted comparing Donald Trump to Ronald Reagan for fear of a haymaker ourselves, as Donald is no Ronald.  While each had roles on the TV screen or the big screen previous to ascending to the biggest role in all of the land, they differ in approach far more than they are similar.

Start with the hair styles please.  Ronald had a thick, dark, wavy mane seemingly woven to his head since birth to die for.  Donald has a thin, white/gray whisp that needs to be woven to his head for fear of it flying away.  Ronald was a statesman.  Donald states what he thinks and feels in non too subtle way.  Ronald had his first lady Nancy incessantly shaping his public perception.  Donald has had quite a few ladies and his first lady appears to step back and watch the bullfight from afar.

But, they have one big thing in common.  They know leverage when they see it.  And, when they see it they use it.  And, when they use it, they use it effectively.

Ronald watched as Iran held American hostages for 444 days till the very end of the Jimmy Carter’s mediocre presidency.  Mysteriously, on Reagan’s inauguration day, Iran freed the hostages.  Ronald played the good cop role on a horse in a TV western a few times.  He always got the bad guy and rode off into the sunset with the pretty woman.  Iran wanted nothing to do with this cowboy in real life.  Did Reagan’s team advance anything to Iran about the consequences of a continued standoff?  Probably.  Enough said.

Trump called North Korean dictator Kim Jung-Un “Rocket Man” in front of a United Nations gathering.  It was not very subtle.  It was the equivalent of Nikita Khrushchev’s shoe-banging incident during the 902nd Plenary Meeting of the UN General Assembly held in New York in 1960. During the session Nikita Khrushchev, First Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, pounded his shoe on his delegate-desk in protest of a speech by Philippine delegate Lorenzo Sumulong.  It was not so subtle.

Both Ronald and Trump were effective, style points aside.

“Rocket Man” is but one of many verbal jabs, hooks, or TKO’s that the Donald has thrown.  It is for that very reason that we continue to be amazed by how wrong the media continues to miss on understanding his approach, and therefore his effectiveness.  Every time he jabs, tweets, nicknames, and/or insults a foreign leader or an entire country the media screams in unison that “the sky is falling, the sky is falling.”  Except, it isn’t.

In fact it’s the opposite.  Trump threatened tariffs on Mexico a couple of weeks back and gave them a short deadline to help on their southern border controlling Central American illegal inflow, and on our southern border helping protect our illegal inflow.  Foes of The Donald said many things. “He can’t do that.”  “You can’t use tariffs to control immigration.”  “It’s unprecedented.”  “He’s offended our neighbor again.”  The stock market said, “Hold on cowboy.”  “This will wreck certain imported products.”  “Prices on imports will go through the roof.”  One Einstein even lamented, “the price of avocados will go up three fold.”

Our guess is that Donald doesn’t like avocados.  And, he doesn’t like illegal immigration even more.  So, with zero help from his Democrat friends, Donald got help on his own from his southern friends.  Mexico, after all of these years, offered immediate help.  Fifteen thousand of their finest are now being deployed on our joint border to stem the flow northward.  Another two thousand went south to do the same.  It’s amazing what the right carrot on the right stick can do.  And, Wall St. rallied once more.

And, it’s equally amazing how many people, tv commentators, and countries totally fail to understand President Trump’s motives and results derived from them. Ronald won with style and grace.  Donald wins with a hammer and a chainsaw.

Donald paints outside of the lines.  Donald is no Ronald.  But, he is Michelangelo in the art of the deal.

 

 

If and When, Together Again.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

When if becomes when the dynamics of a sequence of events can change dramatically as they unfold.   Unexpected final results can happen.  Nothing more unexpected in political history ever happened than when The Donald went from polling at single digits as a Republican hopeful, after first announcing, to being elected President of the United States in November of 2016.

Last night a sure if became a when at 8pm EST when Donald J. Trump officially announced that he was running for his second term as President of the United States.

In 2016 Trump recognized America’s strong desire for change from the status quo.  But a series of events helped his magic carpet ride.

If Bernie Sanders doesn’t gain real traction on the left side of the left, then Hillary Rodham Clinton doesn’t have to steer her train wreck of a campaign into that far lane.  When she did, did she lose some of the moderate Democrats?

If Crazy Bernie doesn’t stay in the race as long as he did, does Hillary have to campaign as hard as she did?  When he did, Hillary was extended to more cities, more speeches, more TV appearances, more bad food, and more planes, trains, and automobiles.  If you couldn’t see fatigue negatively affecting a presidential campaign, when will you?

Enter Joe Biden for President in 2020.  He’ll be 77 this November, and 78 by the time voters head to the polls in November of 2020.  It’s awfully early to pronounce him as the nominee, but he is the front runner by about a lap and a half.

So, what if?  If all of the left that stand to the left of Bernie fall by the wayside, does Bernie get the lion’s share of their votes?  If he does, how far does Bernie go?  Does Bernie know when to say when for the good of his party?  If he goes the distance v. Biden like he did v. Hillary, does fatigue set in for Biden to the extent it did on Hillary?

His few public appearances so far have been less than impressive.  His “I’m running for prez intro speech” was filled with mispronunciations and other verbal stumbles..  His voice trails off often.  His gestures and gait seem tentative.

Trump has already seized on this, relabeling the former “creepy Uncle Joe” as “sleepy Joe.”  Trump’s running against thin air in his own party.  If Biden emerges as the tired nominee, a fresh Trump will go full frontal assault on him.  It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Trump ask for more debates, not less.  It’s usually the other way around as the contender tries to slay the defender and asks for more.  But, there is nothing usual in the world of politics today.

Not if, but when it all unfolds the unexpected probably should be expected.    Meantime, get some sleep Joe.  You are going to need it.

Bullish Anticipation

Posted on by Jim Carlton

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

JIM CARLTON
Managing Director
Chief Investment Officer

Friends

Nothing like jumping the gun. Stocks rallied mightily today
on hopes that the Fed is going to begin to cut interest rates as soon as
tomorrow, and on a tweet from the President that he had spoken to Chinese President
Xi. Add in departing ECB head Draghi’s dovish statements and you have a
trifecta of positive events for the bulls to run with.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 353 points
to finish the day at 26,465. The S&P 500 was up 28 points to close at
2,917. Gold was up $6 to trade at $1,349 per ounce, while oil was up $2.17 to
trade at $54.09 per barrel WTI.

We’ll get the Fed decision tomorrow at 1:00 our time, and
then the Fed Chair’s press conference at 1:30. I would be surprised if the Fed
actually cuts interest rates tomorrow, but it appears the markets are hopeful.
I do think that the FOMC and the Fed Chair will try to make it clear that they
are ready to cut as soon as the July meeting, if the economic data warrants it.
But, he has to be careful not to cast fear that things are deteriorating so
quickly that the Fed has to come to the rescue.  We’ll find out if the
market is already pricing in that cut (it appears so), and what the reaction
will be if market participants/Fed watchers don’t get the cut or at least the
language they so dearly desire. Stay tuned, we’ll let you know how it all plays
out tomorrow.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX  77380 
(281) 298-2700 Phone
(877) 824-4299 Toll Free
(281) 298-2760 Fax

[email protected]        www.chjwealthmanagement.com

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

*Numbers and figures sourced from the following: Bloomberg.com, CNBC.com and Finance.Yahoo.com.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

CHJ Wealth Management,
10200 Grogan’s Mill Road,
Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380

Cashing In on Cashing Out

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

After taking two flights, and driving through four states, and staying eight days in three different hotels, our summer vacation ended all too soon.  Good times were had by all on food, golf, gifts, hikes, bikes, a baseball game, and the like.  So, it goes without saying that it was smart to get $300, just to be safe, out of the ATM before the journey and all of the festivities started.  Or, was it?

Eight days later just shy of $275 remained in my pocket.  Cash is king, you know.  Or, at least cash was once king.

So, it got our staff wondering last evening.  Will we see a cashless society in the future?  We think the answer is yes.  It’s when, not if.

And, why not?  Every merchant in brick and mortar and any merchant in the virtual world of any kind takes some or all of Visa, MasterCard, Amex, Discover, PayPal, Venmo, Chase Quick pay, etc.  And, everyone has two or more of these forms of payment in their pocket, purse, or mobile device.

Cards give you rewards or cash back.  Cash gives you pesky change back.  What do you do with your loose nickels and dimes?  Ours are in the console of the truck, or in the luggage that we carried.  Sometimes the dreaded pennies make it into the pocket and all of the way into the house.  Then what?  Then they go into the large jar on the top shelf.  We hope the shelf doesn’t crash down one day from the weight of the copper and silver.

It took America two or three generations to nearly stop smoking altogether.  It’ll took Uber and Lyft about a decade to obliterate the dreadful taxi industry.  How long before cash is all but gone?

About the only need for it is when you directly interact with another citizen in the moment.  A tip for for this, or a ticket scalped outside of a venue come to mind.  Little else does.

So when you cash out, who cashes in?  Visa, MasterCard and PayPal come to mind.   Their build out for electronic processing allows hundreds of thousands of transactions a minute placing them far ahead of rivals mentioned above.  A very recent Barron’s article quoted some industry experts that feel like the electronic processing will continue its percentage growth in the high teens yearly for the next five years and perhaps beyond.

Remember when Apple Pay was going to change the world?  Guess who Apple partnered with to facilitate what they could not?  It’s Visa and MasterCard.  It seems like they are everywhere you want them to be.

Business to business is next.  Cutting checks to pay vendors and such is getting cut by the day.  Who’s there to help?  Yep.  It’s the next big growth vehicle for them.

Banks charge merchants and businesses two or three percent for the privilege of accepting these forms of payment and get paid well to do so.   Consumers win (or at least feel like they do) with one or more percent cash and/or points earned coming back to them.

But the real winners?  Yep.  They collect what seems like a very slim 0.15% of each transaction.  Mere pennies on the dollar you say?  Their shelf is very sturdy.  It has to be.  They collect millions and millions of dollars of pennies every day.

Cash was king.   Visa and MasterCard sit on the highest thrones now.

Rumors, Reports, Rate Cuts?

Posted on by Jim Carlton

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

JIM CARLTON
Managing Director
Chief Investment Officer

Friends

It’s amazing what moves stocks these days-both up and down.
Today stocks rallied on word that whatever tariffs were going to be initiated
next week on Mexican goods is being delayed for the moment. Stocks moving up
and down on tariff rumors is the world we live in now, but my goodness it all
seems amazingly goofy. Anyway, we trade the markets that we have, not the
markets that we think we should have.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial was up 181 points to
finish the day at 25,720. The S&P 500 was up 17 points to close at 2,843.
Gold was up $4 to trade at $1,338 per ounce, while oil was up $1.36 to trade at
$53.04 per barrel WTI.

The other thing buoying stocks these past few trading
sessions is the hope that the Fed is about to come to the rescue with rate
cuts. Tomorrow’s jobs report will either feed that narrative or put the brakes
on it. Good news might be bad news if the number is too good (remember the
expectations are the 185,000 new jobs were created in May). Of course, if the
jobs number is as bad as the ADP number was this week, what does that mean?
Yes, it fits the Fed rate cut narrative, but is weakening economic data what we
really want? Let’s see how tomorrow’s jobs number plays.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX  77380 
(281) 298-2700 Phone
(877) 824-4299 Toll Free
(281) 298-2760 Fax

[email protected]        www.chjwealthmanagement.com

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

*Numbers and figures sourced from the following: Bloomberg.com, CNBC.com and Finance.Yahoo.com.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

CHJ Wealth Management,
10200 Grogan’s Mill Road,
Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380

Moving On Up, to the East Side.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Jeffery Bezos may only be worth half as much as he was a few months back, but yesterday it was revealed that he bought not one, not two, but three high rise condos on Manhattan Island, New York, NY.  As a matter of fact he liked the neighborhood, er, high rise so much that he bought the penthouse, and the space right under the penthouse, and the space right under the space right under the penthouse.  The total space will be worked into a three story condo with a modest 12 bedrooms.  The price was an Amazon Prime bargain at $80 million.   Adjusting to the single life requires a few creature comforts.

As CEO of the largest retailer in the virtual world, capitalism has been comforting to Mr. Bezos.  Though the stock is down a bit from it’s high, it’s valuation had crossed a trillion (with a “T”) dollars recently.

Capitalism has been good to the Sam Walton family as well.  As beneficiaries to Sam’s fortune created by Sam’s Clubs and Walmarts, they live life as large as they wish as well.  They just aren’t too flashy.  Walmart, the largest retailer in the brick and mortar world is valued at a palty $350 billion dollars.

So enter one Bernie Sanders yesterday into this capitalism love fest.  Walmart held its annual shareholders meeting.  Bernie had a few thoughts that he wanted heard.  Walmart said, “We have an open door, let’s hear them.”

In a three minute call to action Bernie stood up and asked that Walmart go from $11/hr as opening hourly pay for its employees up to $15/hr.  He also told the board that “regular” employees should have a seat or three on their board.

“Walmart is the largest private employer in America and is owned by the Walton family, the wealthiest family in the United States,” said Sanders. “And yet, despite the incredible wealth of its owner, Walmart pays many of its employees starvation wages — wages that are so low that many of these employees are forced to rely on government programs like food stamps, Medicaid and public housing in order to survive.”

“Frankly,” Sanders continued, “the American people are sick and tired of subsidizing the greed of some of the largest and most profitable corporations in this country.”

He cited Amazon among others as companies that have raised their entry pay level to $15/hr and continued to do well.  He is right.  Amazon has done quite well.

Walmart rejected Sander’s proposal faster than they do a vendor’s proposed price increase.  After all, shouldn’t market forces be the catalyst for wages?  America is nearing zero unemployment.  If you want more money isn’t it there if you qualify, say at Amazon, or Target or anywhere that the market forces force employers to pay up for help?  Just asking.

Maybe Bernie isn’t so crazy after all.  You see he’s chasing Joe Biden, who told America in his “I’m running for President” coming out speech in Pennsylvania that the middle class is getting left behind in the Trump years.  Joe should check the stats on the Obama/Biden years, but we digress.

So Bernie took a swing for the class a bit lower than middle yesterday.  The TV cameras loved it.  It takes a lot of video to fill 24 hours you know.  Bernie yells louder and longer for the little guy than most anyone else.  And, he doesn’t spray his hair like The Donald.  Therefore, outdoor rallies like he had after his appeal to Walmart seem to have much appeal to cameras near and far as his unkempt coif whirls like a dervish.

Jeffery Bezos, no doubt, was looking down on all of this, happy that he already has his minimums set at $15, and happy with his real estate purchase too.  Soon, but not soon enough, he’ll be looking down from 35 stories up.

These fixer upper remodels take time you know.

 

More Tariffs

Posted on by Jim Carlton

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

JIM CARLTON
Managing Director
Chief Investment Officer

Friends

As you know, tariffs are the
Presidents favorite blunt instrument to influence behavior, but markets aren’t
particularly fond of them. The President’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexico
if they don’t become more active/helpful in the immigrant crisis sent stocks
tumbling down.

For
the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 355 points to finish the day
at 24,814. The S&P was down 37 points to close at 2,752. Gold was up $18 to
trade at $1,310 per ounce, while oil was down $3.33 to trade at $53.26 per
barrel WTI.

The correction that we
referenced earlier in the week continues and trade war headlines continue to
feed the bears. It was a difficult month of May and now we enter the dog days
of summer. Stay tuned, we’ll try to keep you cool and informed over the coming
months.

Have a great weekend
everyone.

Jim

10200 Grogan’s Mill Road, Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX  77380 
(281) 298-2700 Phone
(877) 824-4299 Toll Free
(281) 298-2760 Fax

[email protected]        www.chjwealthmanagement.com

Investment Advisory offered through Carlton, Hofferkamp & Jenks Wealth Management, LLC (“CHJ”).

*Numbers and figures sourced from the following: Bloomberg.com, CNBC.com and Finance.Yahoo.com.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

CHJ Wealth Management,
10200 Grogan’s Mill Road,
Suite 340
The Woodlands, TX 77380

(Don’t)Take the High Ground!

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Recently this writer took a one hour guided tour of the Battle of Franklin (Tn.) that took place in the very late stages of the American Civil War on November 30,1864.  When asked who won, the tour guide responded, “it is always said that the side that stands on the ground the next morning won. So it was the Confederates who won.”

Last evening and well into this morning the Mississippi St. Bulldogs and LSU’s Fighting Tiger baseball teams fought for 17 innings before the (damn) Dogs prevailed 6-5.  The teams combined for over 600 thrown pitches,35 strikeouts, 30 hits, and 40 men left on base in the 6 hour and 43 minute “war.”  Afterwards, the Bulldogs ran off into the night with victory while LSU stood silently on the “battlefield” wondering what hit them.  It was the Tigers who stood on the ground, but it sure wasn’t victory.

The Confederates lost over 6,000 brave men while the Union lost over 2,000 in the five hour battle that at times was savagely reduced to hand to hand combat.  The Union’s main goal was to build a bridge to allow them to cross the Harpeth River to get to Nashville where warm food and warmer beds awaited. And, in the day before and day of the conflict, build it they did.  The Confederates stood on the high ground on December 1st, but it sure wasn’t victory.  The Union (damn Yankees) was in Nashville by then.

When real wars, or bombings, or tragedies hit we are correctly reminded to not compare sports contests to the actual. “It was a war out there.”  “We fought and fought.”  “It was just going to be the last man standing.”  We ugly Americans cannot help ourselves though.  We marvel at the intestinal fortitude, authentic passion, and unyielding desire of our teams and their opponents.  Along the way, we drink cold beer and eat warm food.  Then we go to sleep in warm beds (sometimes at 3:15) wondering in amazement how our battalion won or lost.  Make no mistake though, we always feel better when we are on the winning side and hold the high ground.

Which brings us to General Pelosi and General Schumer and Commander in Chief Trump.  Yesterday, minutes before they were scheduled to meet to further discuss a big spending bill on American infrastructure, General Pelosi threw a very public, verbal, hand grenade at the Commander.  “We believe that no one is above the law, including the president of the United States. And we believe that the president of the United States is engaged in a cover-up,” she said.

President Trump, enraged, countered by “blowing up” the planned peaceful meeting saying that when they wanted to end the phony investigations and work with him they could go about repairing the nations highways, airports, and bridges.  And so the war for power in DC had quite the battle yesterday.

Somehow LSU has to pick themselves up by the boot straps just 10 hours after they lost, and play an elimination game at 1 PM today.  Elimination?  That sounds permanent.  There is that war/sport comparison again.

Permanent too was the loss of the hundreds of thousands of soldiers from the north and south who fought and died like the 8,000 did in the Battle of Franklin over 150 years ago.

Washington DC could learn a lot by watching young adults play baseball into the morning hours.  Washington DC could learn a lot taking a one hour Battle of Franklin tour as well.

It isn’t always about the high ground.  Sometimes its better to lose the battle and win the war.  Washington DC continues to lose the war trying to win the battle.