Continued Softness

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Friends

It was a somewhat soft beginning to the week for stocks, as
more than real selling pressure, there simply does not seem to be much of an
appetite to buy. The continuous drumbeat of trade war headlines continues to weigh
on the markets collective psyche while economic data continues to be mixed. We
get more earnings from retailers over the next couple of weeks including Home
Depot tomorrow. We continue to see the department stores struggle, but Walmart
had good numbers last week, and we’ll get a look at Target on Wednesday.

As for today, by the close the Dow Jones Industrial Average
was down 84 points to finish the day at 25,679. The S&P 500 was down 19
points to close at 2,840. Gold was up $2 to trade at $1,277 per ounce, while
oil was up $.40 to trade at $63.16 per barrel WTI.

The old “sell in May, and go away” adage appears to be
working so far this Spring (as with any old Wall Street adage, you could flip a
coin just as successfully), but as we have noted this month’s weakness could be
attributed to trade headlines as much as any real valuation risk or earnings
weakness. Whatever the reason, stocks have floundered somewhat recently and the
bulls are searching for a reason to buy.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

The Final Table

With all due respect to Sumo wrestling, does the competition, strategy, and drama get any bigger than when the World Series of Poker’s final table gets down to the last two players?  The chips are stacked high for both contestants and the stakes are higher.  For the winner the financial reward is great.  For the runner up the financial reward is good.  For the ego, winning trumps everything.

So at the final table in the World Series of Trade Negotiations (aka tariffs) we have President Donald Trump from the United States and President Xi Jinping from China (you know the country with the name that Trump pronounces “Chiii Nna”) going heads up.

The final table has been down to these two for several months now.  The hold (pocket) cards were dealt decades ago.   The US, in a sense, holds the advantage as the Chinese imports to the U.S. far outweigh the U.S. exports to China.  Plus, the U.S. economy is larger than China’s, hence its chip stack is bigger.  The Donald knows this.

Onto the board came the flop (the first three of five community cards).  And for months verbal threats about raises were bantered about.  But each player checked. And checked. Manufacturers eyes began to have that “I’ve been in Vegas too long” look about them.  Then, Trump check raised.  Last weekend, tired of the slow play, he threw down a 25% pot sweetener on about 200 billion worth of imports.  Xi Jinping didn’t blink.  He quickly called that with an import penalty on $60 billion in U.S. goods.

Now the turn (community card number four) card is exposed.  Trump immediately, showing strength, pushed further.  His administration on Wednesday slapped a major Chinese firm with an extreme penalty by adding Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. to the Commerce Department’s “entity list.”   This is effectively a death penalty for a foreign company to survive as it blocks its attempt to do business in the U.S.  You can get off of the list, but the cost is more painful than mucking a winning hand.

The department said that it reached this decision because Huawei “is engaged in activities that are contrary to national security or foreign policy interest.”  Perhaps and probably, but why now?  Why not?   Who cares as who is Huawei you ask?  Well, they are only the world’s largest telecommunications equipment maker located in, you guessed right, “Chiii Nna.”   The ramifications to Google, chip makers, the 5G platform itself, and many other global entities is huge (or yuge if you will).

Evidently, Trump isn’t bluffing.  He sits confidently sipping his favorite beverage ( “just for the taste of it, Diet Coke”) staring at his opponent.  He knows that his political base is standing right behind him yelling words of encouragement and even holding up signs in support.  “Go President Go.”  Meanwhile, Xi Jinping considers calling in a back masseuse while he ponders just how strong his hand might be compared to The Donald’s.

Next month the river (the final community card) presents itself.  The two leaders plan to meet in Japan.  President Trump often speaks to the great relationship that he has with Xi Jinping.  Hold your friends close and your enemies closer and your cards closest of all.  By then some economic damage will have been done as the world’s two biggest economic powers are under the gun but seem content to hold em for now.  The stock market has side bets pending galore.

The buy-in for the tournament was steep.  The pot has grown considerably steeper.  Both men and the countries that they represent are now pot committed.

Will we see more raises?  It sure looks likely as we see no fold from either in sight.

 

Oxygen, It’s What’s for Dinner.

Oxygen, as you know, is most essential to living.  So, when last Friday’s monsoon passed by and brought fresh air to Saturday morning, this BBR staff member decided more was better.  After a week of incessant buffoonery in the political arena a short but brisk run would be the(non political) ticket to even more fresh air to clear the head and pump the lungs.  But, the favored outdoor trail was still swamped.  Plan B took us to the treadmill in the gym.

Many others had the same idea.  The one we quickly took had, you guessed it, MSNBC on the monitor ten feet in front of us.  Evidently, there is no rest, nor exercise, for the weary.   And there they were, all of them.  It was five guests and the very partial host Joy Reid.  A split screen of six in total had each of them screaming about AG Barr’s refusal to appear again before Congress, a “Constitutional Crisis,” Trump’s tax returns, etc.  We couldn’t hear it, but the closed captioning told all.  There isn’t enough oxygen on a show to support six “experts.”  We wondered, how many people across the US would be watching at 9AM Central Time on a Saturday?  We wondered, did the six “experts” out number their entire audience?

After a commercial break, the panel shrunk to a mere four.  Those four discussed the merits and opportunities for the crowded field of 21 Democratic presidential nominee hopefuls.  There isn’t near enough oxygen for all in a race of 21 is there?  The four discussed how Senator and announced candidate Amy Klobuchar had performed on rival Fox News’ town hall last week.  Would you know Senator Amy if she was on a treadmill next to you?  Qunnipac polling shows Amy trailing nearly everyone except Michael Dukakis.  Oops, he’s not running is he?  We think he tanked in his race a while back.  She’s polling at 1.3%.  One point three percent.  And four panelists wondered how she did.  You need a lot of O2 to keep a 24/7 newsroom humming all day when CO2 fills the air.

When Joe Biden entered the race a lot of “want to be’s” started gasping for air, too.  Biden’s playing ping pong.  How far to the left will he need to serve to gather all of the minions necessary to give The Donald a good go?  Well, last week he decided to tell America that Trump was making a mistake in this trade war dance with China.  This came just a week after he seemed to express the opposite.

“China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man!” Biden exclaimed at the time. “The fact that they have this great division between the China Sea and the mountains in the East — I mean in the West. They can’t figure out how they’re going to deal with the corruption that exists within the system. They’re not bad folks, folks. But guess what, they’re not competition for us.”  East, west?  Tomatoe, tomato?  Next thing you know the Germans will be blamed for bombing Pearl Harbor.

The campaign trail is long and the job is tough.  Ask Hillary.   “Sleepy” Joe, as at least one has called him, might need some O2 along the way himself.

Meanwhile it seems like President Trump feels the fresh air.  With one huge post Russian Collusion exhale he seems invigorated.  In his ping pong match he just took five serves from every angle the Democrats could slap at him.  Now, it’s his turn to serve.  We think that he thinks that  Biden is his only competition worth worrying about.  Trump also knows that China is good at ping pong too.  Actually they are very good at it.  Yesterday, they volleyed back with a few tariffs of their own.  The stock market was watching the match from Wall St.  They don’t like long unpredictable matches.  Trump doesn’t like what Wall St. doesn’t like.

The farmers and others in the mid west are watching too.  They played a huge (yuge) roll in Trump’s 2016 election.  China’s tariffs are aimed strategically right at them.  Trump quickly announced yesterday that some of the tariffs that the US is collecting from China will go directly to the farmers in these tough times.   It’s never to early to pump some oxygen into the rust belt.

It seemed like a good time to take a deep breath and go for a run.

2020 is so far away, yet so near.

 

 

Send in the Clowns!

Summer is usually when Hollywood releases their blockbuster movies.  You would not have known that yesterday.  The storylines spanned sports, life, and politics.  The drama was intense and the acting was on cue.   Lights, camera, and….. action!

In sports, the Boston Celtics portrayed the Washington Generals in scene one.  The Celtics acted like they were trying, but knew they were going to lose to the Harlem Globetrotters Milwaukee Bucks.  They did by a smooth 25 points.  The Washington DC based MLB Washington Nationals wanted in.  They did their best to mimic the Generals giving up six runs in the first two innings, never challenging, and losing 7-2 to the Milwaukee Brewers.  It was show time for both Milwaukee teams.

Washington DC itself then took the stage.  House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., declared a “constitutional crisis” on Wednesday after his committee voted to hold AG William Barr in contempt for defying a subpoena for Robert Mueller’s unredacted Russia report and documents.

“We’ve talked for a long time about approaching a constitutional crisis. We are now in it,” Nadler told the press on Wednesday. He indicated that the United States was at a critical time of testing whether it could stay a republic or transition into a tyrannical form government.  Dramatic indeed.  Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee stood stage left (appropriately) of Nadler as he spoke.  She nodded her head (appropriately) after each sentence.  The puppet strings from above were barely visible.  Later on MSNBC she reiterated that these contemptible White House acts were going to lead to a “Saturday Night Massacre.”  Perhaps Rep. SheJack can open for SNL soon.  “Live from New York, It’s Saturday Night Massacre!”

Just off Broadway the New York Times wanted in the play.  They mic dropped a story that showed Donald Trump lost millions of dollars in the late eighties and early nineties in the business world, and showed copies of his somehow acquired tax returns to prove it.  This really was a rerun of a remake.  But if it sells papers, so be it.  Extra, extra!

Fox News “from the left” contributor Juan Williams was live on camera to comment.  Fox casts Williams as their own Washington Generals player nightly. He helps keep it fair and balanced don’t you know?   But, this time he donned a big plastic red nose and white face clown paint (remember black face paint is very out of style these days) to opine that this proves that The Donald is unfit to lead us economically seeing as he didn’t know how to run a business. Evidently Juan missed the recent TV episodes on the network that feeds him as they reported the lowest unemployment in 49 years, a very healthy stock market, low inflation, and rising wages.

Juan’s clown outfit could come in handy to distract the raging bull when the riding cowboy gets tossed in the mud.  That bull, played by none other than President Trump himself, starred in his own road show in Panama City, FL last evening.  There he snorted and pawed the ground to the audience’s delight.  Trump is no apprentice on the big stage.  “You got some real beauties.  You have a choice between Sleepy Joe and Crazy Bernie,” he said.  The crowd roared.  “And Beto, he’s falling like a rock.”  “I’ll take any of them, let’s just pick somebody please and start this thing.”  The lead actor cares not who his cowboy rider is.  He’s ready to toss him or her.   Once the rider is on the ground send in Juan the clown to distract him.  But, when President Trump acts there are no cliffhanger endings.  Give him a chance and he will (Al) gore you.

We cannot wait for more hits this summer.  Meanwhile, Oscar nominations for all.  Bravo, bravo!

Headline Advance But Disappointing Close

Independent Investment Management designed to protect and grow your wealth.

Friends

As we mentioned after yesterday’s market dip, we are on
headline watch and that a simple tweet can move stocks in either direction.
Well, this morning we got the “Chinese want to make a deal” tweet from the President
and stocks quickly moved into positive territory. As further comments from the
White House seemed to confirm that talks were back on for later this week,
stocks moved comfortably into positive territory. But, the enthusiasm waned and
stocks drifted lower into a disappointing close.

For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2
points to close at 25,967. The S&P 500 was down 4 points to finish the day
at 2,879. Gold was down $4 to trade at $1,281 per ounce, while oil was up $.73
to trade at $62.13 per barrel WTI.

Positive trade headlines have become less and less effective
as more and more doubt creeps into the actual validity of such headlines. On
the other hand, negative headlines about the Chinese trade situation sends
ripples of fear through the markets and stocks seem much more susceptible to
such headlines. Before doubt was introduced into the trade proceedings this
week, it appeared that the stock market was in a position to actually melt up
given the comfortable environment for stocks (employment, inflation, GDP,
earnings and tailwinds), but now it feels like the downside to a lack of a
trade deal is considerably higher than the upside of achieving a trade deal. In
other words, the risk/reward equation appears to have changed this week. Stay
tuned.

Have a nice evening everyone.

Jim

And Justice For All

Rod Rosenstein(RR) resigned yesterday effective May 11, 2019.  RR went to the White House Monday and personally delivered his resignation letter face to face with the President, according to an administration official and a Justice Department official.  It was only fitting that he do that since in his short stint as Deputy Attorney General he often went toe to toe with President Trump.

On Monday, Rosenstein wrote in his resignation letter to Trump, “We keep the faith, we follow the rules, and we always put America first.”  Sounds like a great idea we suppose.

Regardless of which side of the aisle you prefer it was hard at times to keep the faith in RR because one wondered whether he was following the rules.  It’s hard to put America first if you don’t.
President Trump nominated RR to serve as Deputy Attorney General for the United States Department of Justice on February 1, 2017.  He was confirmed by the U.S. Senate on April 25, 2017.  A quick, but very busy, two years later he’s out.
But, in the span of 24 months RR wrote a letter to Trump recommending James Comey be fired, appointed Robert Mueller as Special Prosecutor in the Russia mess, either did or did not want to wear a wire when talking to Trump, attempted to recruit cabinet members to invoke the 25th amendment to have Trump removed from office, and approved along with AG Robert Barr the findings of the Mueller Investigation.  Trump tells us that he sleeps about four hours a night.  Our guess is that RR sleeps about four hours a week.
Research shows he is a registered Republican.  Trump didn’t get that feeling, wanting on numerous occasions to fire him.  Bad idea Trump’s team told him.
Eleven House GOP members filed articles of impeachment against Rosenstein on July 25, 2018, alleging he has stonewalled document requests from Congress and he mishandled the 2016 election investigation.  But they backed down for fear of slowing the Kavanaugh Supreme Court approval process.  Bad idea other congressmen told them.
He was in the very good graces of the Democrats until RR added his signature to Barr’s that Mueller’s investigation found no Trump Russia collusion and felt like any instances of obstruction of justice failed to rise to the level of criminal activity.  Bad conclusion Democrats told him.
So Trump didn’t like him.  Congressional Republicans didn’t like him.  And, now Congressional Democrats don’t like him.  If everyone disagrees with you up there in the swamp maybe you are putting America first?
So Rod Rosenstein went out like he came in-face to face and toe to toe with his biggest of many critics.  Maybe justice was served after all.

Google Tonight, Apple Tomorrow

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Friends

It’s a big earnings week with Google (Alphabet) announcing
their earnings after the close today and Apple after the close tomorrow. Google
shares posting new all-time highs today would seem to be in a precarious
position going into the release, while Apple has also had quite an advance so
far in 2019. It will be interesting to see if those stocks are fully pricing in
good news, or can the companies exceed expectations enough to actually push
shares higher?

As for today, things were mainly quiet, and by the close the
Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 10 points to finish the day at 26,554. The
S&P 500 was up 3 points to close at 2,943. Gold was down $6 to trade at
$1,282 per ounce, while oil was up $.32 to trade at $63.62 per barrel WTI.

Earnings are front and center at the moment, just at the
moment stocks are touching all-time new highs. A bit of a high bar for
Corporate America to clear just when things were supposed to be getting more
difficult for them. Should be an interesting week. Stay tuned.

Jim

Jim

GDP Surprises

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Friends

At first blush, our first look at 1st quarter GDP
was a bit of an eye opener. The economy grew at 3.2% in the 1st
quarter which was quite a bit better than the 2.5% that analysts were expecting.
But, after further analysis the bears among us noticed that a good portion of
the growth was due to inventory build and that underlying demand had weakened.
Remember the days when a good number was just, well, a good number? Bond market
participants immediately went with the more cynical view as bond prices rose,
while yields fell. But, stocks had a relatively good day. Moderate growth with
low interest rates and no inflation has been just fine for stock investors for
quite some time.

Anyway, by the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was
up 81 points to finish the day at 26,543. The S&P 500 was up 13 points to
close at 2,939. Gold was up $8 to trade at $1,288 per ounce, while oil was down
$2.32 to trade at $62.89 per barrel WTI.

On the earnings front, Intel, Chevron and Exxon Mobil
disappointed, while Amazon did its thing and delivered solid results. As busy
as this week was, next week is the busiest week on the earnings calendar. We’ll
see reports from Alphabet (Google), Apple, GM, McDonalds, Conoco Phillips,
Merck, Pfizer, Kellogg, DowDupont and hundreds more. As we have seen the
earnings reports and the subsequent share price reactions have been very mixed.
My overall impression so far is that earnings are probably a little better than
we expected, but share prices were already reflecting that, with the advance we
have seen since the beginning of the year. Also noteworthy is that companies
are still providing very cautious guidance going forward, and that too has been
a bit of a headwind for stocks over that past couple of weeks. All in all,
though, here we are at all-time highs. As I said, stocks don’t mind a slow
growth, low inflation, and low interest rate environment. We’ll let you know
how next week’s busy earnings schedule plays out.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jim

Just a Bit Inside!

Last evening Philadelphia Phillie Rhys Hoskins homered off of NY Mets reliever Jacob Rhame in a 6-0 win.  This came just one day after Rhame buzzed two consecutive fastballs just above Hoskin’s cranium in the meaningless ninth inning of Mets 9-0 blowout.  Hoskins basked in the moment, taking a very long 34 seconds to touch all of the bases.

Joe Biden hopes he hit a home run too.  Just one day after he was supposed to release his presidential campaign announcement video he did.  His video is a good bit longer than 34 seconds(209 to be exact) and he doesn’t touch all of the bases.  Rather it appeals directly to his base.  It buzzes a fastball or two right at the cranium of President Donald Trump.

And so the race to rally the base is on.  In the very first inning of Biden’s video he remembers the conflict (and tragic death of one innocent bystander) between far right-wing groups and anti protesters in August of 2017 in Charlottesville, VA.  He calls out Trump’s comments that there were “a lot of good people on both sides there.”  So the race for 2020 among 20 Democrat hopefuls is joined.  Biden wasted no time telling us that Trump was bad.

Old school baseball at its finest, or at its worst if you prefer, was on display in NY.  “He got me,” Rhame said. “Make a better pitch, he doesn’t get to run the bases.”  Added Mets manager Mickey Callaway: “I really don’t have any thoughts on it. That’s their team. They can do what they wanna do.”  “If a ball goes over your head the night before, the best way to get back at the pitcher is by putting the ball in the seats,” Phillies manager Gabe Kapler said.  Unapologetic it was. Old school it is.

So too is Joe Biden.  Old school politician he is.  The last time he had to raise funds he shook many a hand and hugged and hugged and hugged many a lady.  Today, the world-wide web is your fundraising friend.  Obama’s campaigners ran breathlessly to Beto’s camp. What a breath of fresh air this Beto guy is they said.  He reminds us of a certain guy named Barrack in 2008 they said.   O’Rourke is 47.  Joe turns 77 this year.  He’s old enough to be his crazy uncle.  He could be related, but can he relate?

But Joe is apologetic.  A month or so ago he apologized to all women, saying about the Anita Hill testimony during the Clarence Thomas Supreme Court nominee hearings ” I wish I could have done something.”  “To this day I regret I couldn’t come up with a way to get her the kind of hearing she deserved, given the courage she showed by reaching out to us.”  Joe forgot, or forgot to tell us, that he was the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee that ran the hearings then.  And just a couple of weeks ago he apologized for hanging on too long during all of those uplifting hugs.  He said “I will be more respectful of people’s personal space.”  He even noted that today is more about taking selfies.

Hoskins said that the slow homerun jog wasn’t about retaliation. “A couple of guys kind of said the phrase, ‘Don’t poke the sleeping bear,”‘ he said.  And with that baseball continues to slog on with some of yesterday’s traditions.  Perhaps far too comfortable insiders are still running the show.

Today Biden can take a 209 second video trot around the diamond. The 24 hour news cycle will provide the stadium.   Tomorrow he should expect two fastballs high and tight.  Eventually he will have to stop apologizing for his past.  Eventually he will have to stop telling us who Trump is.  Eventually he will have to tell us who he is, won’t he?

Or, he just pokes the bear that President Trump is.  And The Donald never sleeps.

 

 

 

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

With 5G technology and artificial intelligence on our doorsteps we will very soon be able to see, hear, and do things better and faster than ever before.  So what will America prioritize to see, hear, and do better than ever?

While that conversation, driven by capitalism, evolves in boardrooms and meeting rooms the world over, Wall St. has certainly has bought in.  A record-setting day yesterday had most indices closing at new all time highs.  This writer took a Uber ride Friday night and the driver was eager to give us stock tips.  A good stock tip might be “when Uber drivers give stock tips it’s time to sell stocks.”

Regardless, Main St. seems to have bought in too.  Employment is at all time highs too.  Inflation is low.  Interest rates are tame.

All is well, eh?  Well.  Maybe not.  A quick trip around the newsrooms in the last 24 hours shows us just how bad life really is apparently.

Brick and mortar is dead.  Brick and mortar is dead.  Maybe not.  Kohl’s Department Stores announced yesterday that they are expanding their agreement with Amazon to increase the number of their retail stores from 100 to all 1100 to accept Amazon returns.   Traditional stores teaming up with fierce internet competitors that were going to drive them out of business sounds crazy. It’s about foot traffic, always.  Both stocks rose sharply.  Bernie Sanders called Amazon criminal the other evening in a town hall.  It turns out that they very legally pay less taxes than Bernie wants them to.  Sounds like they help employ a few folks that do pay taxes.  “Crazy Bernie” someone calls him.  We’ll be back after this commercial break.

California wants to eliminate those tiny plastic shampoo bottles that hotels provide.  Turns out that they are being found in the oceans at an increasing and alarming rate they say.  First it was those plastic rings around so many six packs of cola strangling all of the seals.  Once eradicated, the plastic straws that you drank the cola with started floating in the seas.  What could be next?  Could it be all of the plastic syringes lying in the streets that were handed out to drug users up the coast to insure clean needles for all?  More after these commercial words.

A few of the now 20 and counting announced Democrats for president have endorsed giving voter rights to either all Americans 16 and over, or all people living in this country, or all people living in this country that are incarcerated, or all three of the above.  We wonder if the cry for sixteen year olds to vote coincides with them being 18 and of legal age to vote come 2020?  First come, first served.  We wonder when it became a right of a non US citizen to vote, period?  See if you can vote in the country of your choice the next time you travel abroad.  We wonder if the plan is to bring the polling booths to the prisons, or to bring the prisoners to the polling booths?  We’re up against a hard break.  Back in two minutes.

We are back.   Elizabeth Warren one upped Bernie Sanders’ free tuition giveaway.  She wants free college too, but first wants to forgive 50k of student debt per individual that had to pay.  Meanwhile, Maxine Waters, Chairperson of the House Finance Committee, wants to know what the big banks are going to do help these million or so yearly student loan defaults.  She “grilled” several bank CEO’s  two weeks back asking what they were going to do about this crisis.  After the third CEO in a row reminded her that the government took over the loan program from these greedy bankers in 2009, she relented.  Awkward.  To summarize, the debt isn’t being repaid.  Warren wants to forgive and forget about it anyway.  It’s our government that is running the loan program even though the Finance Chairperson doesn’t know it.  Lets just make college free.  Banks are bad.  We’ll be back with some final words right after this important message from our sponsors.

We wind down our 5G broadcast to you tonight on a lighter note with a look at this brief video of the latest advances in robotic programming.  Wow.  Artificial intelligence is creepy.

And, just before we close we have breaking news.  It is confirmed that Joe Biden, who has been bidding his time, will announce tomorrow that he is entering the crowded Democratic field of announced candidates for president in 2020.   Wow.  How ironic is it that we mentioned Biden, artificial intelligence, and creepy all at the same time?

Thank you for watching.  Good day.