Politics

I’ll Scratch Your Back

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Did you get paid yesterday?  It’s very likely that you did.  It was the end of the month.   You always and only get paid for what you have earned.  Paychecks are remuneration for the past.  Joe Biden likely got paid as well, and twice if he takes Social Security.   His checks come from the US Government.  They are a federal government pension plan check and Social Security check.  He earned them over his many years of civil service to our country based on how the system is set up.

But, he is learning rapidly, recently, that there isn’t too much civil about our country today.  And, he is learning rapidly that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.  You have to earn it.   And, he is learning that how the system works today has little to do with how it was set up “back in the day.”

Back in the day Ronald Reagan invited Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill, an old curmudgeon, old school Democrat from Bahhhstan, down the hill for an occasional tip o’ the cup of the whiskey of his choice.  Together they would iron out their differences (compromise) as the ice was melting and get to a position where both felt good bringing back a deal to their respective parties.  And, both thought that America had won.

Even as recently as 2011, President Obama was caught on a hot mic as leaned over and told Russian Dmitry Medvedev to give him time to get reelected and he could work out a deal with them.  Medvedev promised to relay the info to Putin.  You can see it here.

So, maybe it surprised Sleepy Joe when Kamala Harris took him to the woodshed last week on the nationally televised debate over his “working relationship” with known segregationists in Congress a couple of decades back.  It shouldn’t have.  He already told us that he got that past behaviors don’t translate to today’s world or political climate.  “I get it, I get it,” he said.  You can see him explain that over and over here.

We even had the left leaning media over the weekend tell us how bad, or reckless, or unprepared President Trump was in reaching out to Kim Jung Un unexpectedly while he was in Japan for an impromptu stroll on the communist land of North Korea.

You remember “hold your friends close and your enemies closer,” don’t you?  Apparently, embraces of any sort with friend or foe are now old school.

The new school seems to be that there is only one way.  And, when a party with power decides on a path it expects all to toe the line, no exceptions, no negotiations.  So, we wonder, is Joe Biden someone who can operate in the new world order?

And, most of all, does he want to earn his way?  His demeanor daily and debate disaster last week scream otherwise.

In fact, wasn’t his time to strike when he was VP to the two term, popular President Barrack Obama?  History shows that VP’s run immediately after whom they serve under can run no longer.  Biden deferred to Hillary Clinton for some reason.  Maybe he was tired even back then.  As many commercials remind us, the aging process waits for no one.  Four years later, Joe is four years older.

Obama came from left field to win, then win again.  Trump came from right field to win, and might win again.  Biden looks and sounds more like McCain, Romney, Hillary, and Jeb Bush than his fellow Democratic nominee hopefuls.   It’s way too early to predict, but the country is in a very different place.

And, there is no back to scratch nor whiskey to pour anymore.

Get some rest Joe.

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-Debating the Debate

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Round two of two of the first Democratic Presidential Debates went round and around last evening.  Below are ten nuggets for you consumption that cover thoughts on both days with an emphasis on last evening.  Some nuggets are heavy.  Some are light.  All are spiced just right.

  1.  For better or worse, the Democratic Party’s center is now further left than ever.  When the ten hopefuls were asked last evening to raise their hands if their healthcare plans included free medical care for “undocumented” immigrants, ten of ten hands were raised.  Joe Biden looked to his left and right and then figured it was a good idea to follow the crowd.
  2. Sleepy Joe took shots across the bow from Sanders, Stalwell, and Harris.  Three times he was given thirty seconds by one of the five MSNBC moderators to retort.  In none of the three did old Joe seem prepared.  Twice he stopped in mid sentence and said, ” I see that my time is up.”  One wonders, after last evening, if indeed Joe’s time is up.
  3. Right after the debates when the candidates and their “spin handlers” look for microphones to continue driving home what they stand for, Biden spent time talking to a few supporters from the crowd.  When he finally did answer two questions from an unidentified reporter he was somewhat awkwardly pulled away by his wife.  He said something half audible as he left the mic that sounded like, “that’s my wife and I need to go.”  Agreed.
  4. This morning’s New York Post front page has a picture of the ten hands being raised by the candidates answering the medical question above.  The bolded font headline rephrased the question as “Who Wants to Lose the Election?”  Did we mention that the party’s center has shifted left?
  5. Kamala Harris’ shot at Biden stemmed from his resistance decades ago to support school busing to eliminate segregation.  She dramatically used her upbringing in the moment explaining that as a second grader she was in the first generation of that very heated time in America, and what it meant to her.  Clearly she had prepped very well for the moment and delivered her consternation at him flawlessly.  She was kind enough to say that she didn’t believe he was a racist all the while pummeling his legislative past.  Biden looked like he needed smelling salts and a standing eight count from the moderators.
  6.  Winning in debates can mean a lot of things to a lot of candidates.  For example, former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, an evening prior, went from “who?” to “that one impressed me, let me hear more.”  On to round two he goes.  Ditto for Tulsi Gabbard.  On to round two she goes.  For entrepreneur Andrew Yang, it meant advancing his thought of offering $1,000 to each family each month for a cool cost of $3.2 trillion dollars.  He did this while wearing no tie to the proceedings, and speaking for a grand total of three minutes of the 120 minute debate.  A man of few words, afterwards he had no comment on where Yin was.  In to the round file he goes.
  7. But, the clear winner in BBR’s eyes and ears over the last two nights was Senator Kamala Harris.  She commanded the stage with two men to her right (Bernie and Joe) that had way more experience on a stage as big as this.  Her command of the spoken word is darn good, with pauses and inflection interspersed at the right time and in proper doses.  In short, she looks capable of being in it for the long run.
  8.  Mayor Pete Buttigieg certainly held his own.  When he speaks he brings logic and sincerity along for the taking. His answer to the police shooting mess (regardless of how you see the matter) his South Bend town is in was well crafted given the low ceiling.   It’s a really crowded field.  And, at 37, he is short on experience in public service and private employment.   But, given where Obama and Trump came from and where they landed, the White House, the mayor’s campaign will be interesting to watch.  Maybe he’s a 2024 or 2028 guy.
  9. BBR looks forward to the next round when hopefully the money has dried up on half of the field so that real debating can begin.  MSNBC tossed plenty of softballs at plenty of beer league players.  It’s time to go to the next level.  After all, someone needs to ask the field how these candidates intend to pay for all of these promises.  Free healthcare, free college, free community college, college debt forgiveness, unlimited immigration, and a free chicken in every pot sounds quite expensive.  Bernie might already be shaking a tin cup as commuters arrive on Wall St. this AM.
  10. It’s awfully early to predict.  However, an avid reader of BBR put $100 on Donald Trump to win the GOP nomination three years ago at 17-1 when The Donald was still nicknaming Jeb Bush as Low Energy and Marco Rubio as Lil’.  It’s great money if you have that kind of vision.  We don’t know what Kamala Harris’ odds on gaining the nomination are at this moment.  But, we suspect Vegas lowered them a good bit after last night.   They should.  Polls aside, she looks like the one galloping to the front to us.

Get some rest Joe.

 

 

Lefty and Shorty Debate the Debate.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

If Lefty and Shorty were still with us their early morning banter might have gone like this.

Lefty and Shorty sat quietly in the still, humid, summer night air.  It was after 2 AM on their graveyard shift and cars were nowhere to be found.  Lefty- Why did we stay open 24 hours Shorty?  Shorty- So that we can discuss how the first of two Democratic Party debates went last evening.  It was a graveyard for many nominee hopefuls.

Lefty sat to the left of Shorty.  Imagine that.  Shorty sat on the shorter of the two “halves” of the 55 gallon drum. Imagine that.  Each were cut down to size and retrofitted with a soft cushion top.

Lefty- So you watched the two hour debate?  Shorty- Most of it.  I was flipping back and forth with the Commodores.

Lefty- What do you mean?  You were watching an old school concert, too?  Shorty- No.  The Vanderbilt Commodores won the NCAA Baseball National Championship.   Lefty– Oh.  OK.  I guess two straight hours with ten wanna be’s is indeed taxing.  Shorty– Don’t bring up taxing.  I heard it enough last night.  And, “straight” is an insensitive word.

Lefty- What did you think of the MSNBC and NBC broadcast?  Shorty- It was fine except when they had technical difficulties and had to cut away.  That was weird.  Lefty- The hot mics went cold and the cold mics ran hot.  Shorty-Climate change?  Lefty- Oh please.  Shorty- Was it the Russian interference they have all been talking about for two years?  Lefty-Oh please.  Shorty-Maybe Nadler can add it to his list of questions for the July 17 Mueller testimony.

Lefty- Ahem.  So what did you think of the polling leader in this first group, Elizabeth Warren?  Shorty- Well, at least when she spoke she did so in her native (American) tongue.  Lefty- Huh?  Shorty- Well Beto and Booker decided to spend half of their ten minutes of fame practicing their Rosetta Stone Spanish.  Lefty-It was televised on Telemundo as well.  Shorty– Don’t they have closed captioned translating English to Spanish?

Lefty- Good grief.  Moving on, how about Ohio Rep Tim Ryan?  Shorty- If Tim Ryan fell in a forest and no one heard it, would it be sound?  Lefty- This is going well. Shorty-Saving Rep Ryan isn’t coming to a theater near you soon.  Lefty- Did you like any performance?  Shorty- I thought NY Mayor Bill DeBlasio stood tall.  Lefty- Interesting.  Shorty- He must be at least six foot four, and he proved that he is no paper straw man.

Lefty- Former Maryland Rep John Delaney seemed reasonable.  Shorty- He did.  He just looks too much like Tim Conway.  Dorf on debate.  Lefty- You’re irascible Shorty.  Shorty- At least I don’t look and sound angry about everything like Booker.

Lefty- Did anyone do well through your jaundiced eyes?  Shorty- Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro did.  Lefty– Finally some progress.  Shorty- Progressive.

Lefty- How did Washington Governor Jay Inslee do?  Shorty- Who?  Lefty- I guess not so well. Shorty– Was he the one near the far right end of the stage that kept raising his hand?  Lefty- That’s him!  Shorty-  He must have wanted to be excused to go to the genderless bathrooms provided.

Lefty-  This is your last chance.  Did you find it odd that in two hours not one shot was taken at front runner Joe Biden?  Shorty- He likely would not have heard it anyway.  He was probably sleepy eyed by then.

Shorty– One debate in, and America is so done with seven or so of these hopefuls.  Lefty- And, for now, I am so done with you.

Bernie Isn’t (that) Crazy.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Alice Cooper called it.  “School’s out, for summer.”  But, soon, Rodney Dangerfield and others will return.  “Hey, I am going back to school!”  And, when they do they need to bring their checkbook, and then some.

No one disputes the following.  One, the cost of a four year public college/university education in these 50 United States has spiraled out of control.  And, two, the debt that undergraduates and post graduates have incurred is huge at 1.6 trillion dollars and mounting by the moment.

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and a few others have led or joined the battle cry to make college tuition free and/or forgive the outstanding student debt.  Each plan to do so essentially redistributes wealth from taxpayers to students and is fraught with inconsistencies.  More later.

But now, we ask, have you ever heard of Sallie Mae?  SLM Corporation (commonly known as Sallie Mae; originally the Student Loan Marketing Association) is a publicly traded U.S. company that provides consumer banking loans.   Its structure has changed dramatically since it was set up in 1973.   At first, it was a government entity that serviced federal education loans. It then became private in 2004 and started offering private student loans.

The company’s primary business is originating, servicing, and collecting private education loans.  Sallie Mae previously originated federally guaranteed student loans originated under the Federal Family Education Loan Program and worked as a servicer and collector of federal student loans on behalf of the Department of Education. 

So, the U.S. government started Sallie Mae.  It then decided the task too tall for itself and allowed it to privatize.  And it’s now government workers who are crying loudest about the soaring student debt.   And, they should.

We took a peak at Sallie Mae’s (now Navient Corporation, the largest servicer of federal student loans and collector on behalf of the U.S. Dept of Education) “generous” loan offers and terms there of last evening.  What’s our conclusion?  You might as well charge your education on your Visa or MasterCard.

Navient loans offered today start at a 7.5% interest rate.  They are tied to a marker of interest rates known as LIBOR, plus 5%.  They are variable, can even change monthly up or down, and are allowed to float as high as 25% if the market so chooses.  That’s 25% as a high side risk!  Seven point five percent isn’t cheap to begin with.  Ford will give you zero percent financing for that new F150.  Sallie Mae and Uncle Sam want more, much more.

But it gets worse.  Let’s take a 40k dollar loan as an example.  You have three options to repay.  All start with paying either $25 bucks a month while still in school, or the interest accumulated each month of $233, or foregoing paying anything at all until you have completed your education.  Tick tock goes the interest clock from day one of course.  The choices are bad, poor, and terrible.

The structured repayment schedule over the course of the next dozen or so years costs about $500 a month at the 7.5% rate, and much more if rates rise.  The total interest is 29k on top of the 40k.   But, here is the kicker of all kickers.  There is no interest saved for paying down the principal in any accelerated manner.  There is no incentive/gain for attempting to get out of the debt.  Sign up and Sallie starts counting her coins.

There is no bankruptcy filing that exempts anyone from repaying either.  Federal laws are written to absolve you of debt incurred when you can no longer keep your head above water, except if that debt is owed to your government.  It’s the golden rule.  He who has the gold makes the rules.  Sallie collects the gold for he who makes the rules.

Making college free (and it wouldn’t be free, just paid by others) and forgiving debt (and that would just be adding to the federal debt that we all are accountable for as well) isn’t the answer.  No answer is that simple.  And no answer should only be for the selected ones who are in debt today or in school tomorrow.   It needs to be equitable.   For example, shouldn’t trade schools be “free” too?  You can’t discriminate for just colleges can you Elizabeth?

Their approach is a big band aid and is designed to garner votes from the young and naive.  The bandage needs to be ripped off of the whole mess and the root cause needs a vaccination.   Otherwise, many will continue to fall down, scrape their knees, and eventually the wound will get infected.   A great start to this would be to examine the ridiculous terms of Sallie Mae and others in this federal loan business for students.  If you didn’t save for college at least there should be an incentive to get out of debt sooner.

Maybe Crazy Bernie isn’t so crazy after all in attempting to address this.  It’s just how, not handouts, that need to be looked at and changed.  Start with Sallie Mae and others just like her.   And, like the $22 trillion dollar debt, and ballooning government, the sooner the better.

Donald, You’re No Ronald!

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

When Senator Lloyd Benson was squared off against Senator Dan Quayle in the Vice Presidential Debate in 1988, Quayle, desperate to establish himself as a qualified VP running mate, dropped a JFK reference.   Benson dropped a haymaker on Quayle, deadpanning “you’re no Jack Kennedy.“

We have resisted comparing Donald Trump to Ronald Reagan for fear of a haymaker ourselves, as Donald is no Ronald.  While each had roles on the TV screen or the big screen previous to ascending to the biggest role in all of the land, they differ in approach far more than they are similar.

Start with the hair styles please.  Ronald had a thick, dark, wavy mane seemingly woven to his head since birth to die for.  Donald has a thin, white/gray whisp that needs to be woven to his head for fear of it flying away.  Ronald was a statesman.  Donald states what he thinks and feels in non too subtle way.  Ronald had his first lady Nancy incessantly shaping his public perception.  Donald has had quite a few ladies and his first lady appears to step back and watch the bullfight from afar.

But, they have one big thing in common.  They know leverage when they see it.  And, when they see it they use it.  And, when they use it, they use it effectively.

Ronald watched as Iran held American hostages for 444 days till the very end of the Jimmy Carter’s mediocre presidency.  Mysteriously, on Reagan’s inauguration day, Iran freed the hostages.  Ronald played the good cop role on a horse in a TV western a few times.  He always got the bad guy and rode off into the sunset with the pretty woman.  Iran wanted nothing to do with this cowboy in real life.  Did Reagan’s team advance anything to Iran about the consequences of a continued standoff?  Probably.  Enough said.

Trump called North Korean dictator Kim Jung-Un “Rocket Man” in front of a United Nations gathering.  It was not very subtle.  It was the equivalent of Nikita Khrushchev’s shoe-banging incident during the 902nd Plenary Meeting of the UN General Assembly held in New York in 1960. During the session Nikita Khrushchev, First Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, pounded his shoe on his delegate-desk in protest of a speech by Philippine delegate Lorenzo Sumulong.  It was not so subtle.

Both Ronald and Trump were effective, style points aside.

“Rocket Man” is but one of many verbal jabs, hooks, or TKO’s that the Donald has thrown.  It is for that very reason that we continue to be amazed by how wrong the media continues to miss on understanding his approach, and therefore his effectiveness.  Every time he jabs, tweets, nicknames, and/or insults a foreign leader or an entire country the media screams in unison that “the sky is falling, the sky is falling.”  Except, it isn’t.

In fact it’s the opposite.  Trump threatened tariffs on Mexico a couple of weeks back and gave them a short deadline to help on their southern border controlling Central American illegal inflow, and on our southern border helping protect our illegal inflow.  Foes of The Donald said many things. “He can’t do that.”  “You can’t use tariffs to control immigration.”  “It’s unprecedented.”  “He’s offended our neighbor again.”  The stock market said, “Hold on cowboy.”  “This will wreck certain imported products.”  “Prices on imports will go through the roof.”  One Einstein even lamented, “the price of avocados will go up three fold.”

Our guess is that Donald doesn’t like avocados.  And, he doesn’t like illegal immigration even more.  So, with zero help from his Democrat friends, Donald got help on his own from his southern friends.  Mexico, after all of these years, offered immediate help.  Fifteen thousand of their finest are now being deployed on our joint border to stem the flow northward.  Another two thousand went south to do the same.  It’s amazing what the right carrot on the right stick can do.  And, Wall St. rallied once more.

And, it’s equally amazing how many people, tv commentators, and countries totally fail to understand President Trump’s motives and results derived from them. Ronald won with style and grace.  Donald wins with a hammer and a chainsaw.

Donald paints outside of the lines.  Donald is no Ronald.  But, he is Michelangelo in the art of the deal.

 

 

If and When, Together Again.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

When if becomes when the dynamics of a sequence of events can change dramatically as they unfold.   Unexpected final results can happen.  Nothing more unexpected in political history ever happened than when The Donald went from polling at single digits as a Republican hopeful, after first announcing, to being elected President of the United States in November of 2016.

Last night a sure if became a when at 8pm EST when Donald J. Trump officially announced that he was running for his second term as President of the United States.

In 2016 Trump recognized America’s strong desire for change from the status quo.  But a series of events helped his magic carpet ride.

If Bernie Sanders doesn’t gain real traction on the left side of the left, then Hillary Rodham Clinton doesn’t have to steer her train wreck of a campaign into that far lane.  When she did, did she lose some of the moderate Democrats?

If Crazy Bernie doesn’t stay in the race as long as he did, does Hillary have to campaign as hard as she did?  When he did, Hillary was extended to more cities, more speeches, more TV appearances, more bad food, and more planes, trains, and automobiles.  If you couldn’t see fatigue negatively affecting a presidential campaign, when will you?

Enter Joe Biden for President in 2020.  He’ll be 77 this November, and 78 by the time voters head to the polls in November of 2020.  It’s awfully early to pronounce him as the nominee, but he is the front runner by about a lap and a half.

So, what if?  If all of the left that stand to the left of Bernie fall by the wayside, does Bernie get the lion’s share of their votes?  If he does, how far does Bernie go?  Does Bernie know when to say when for the good of his party?  If he goes the distance v. Biden like he did v. Hillary, does fatigue set in for Biden to the extent it did on Hillary?

His few public appearances so far have been less than impressive.  His “I’m running for prez intro speech” was filled with mispronunciations and other verbal stumbles..  His voice trails off often.  His gestures and gait seem tentative.

Trump has already seized on this, relabeling the former “creepy Uncle Joe” as “sleepy Joe.”  Trump’s running against thin air in his own party.  If Biden emerges as the tired nominee, a fresh Trump will go full frontal assault on him.  It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Trump ask for more debates, not less.  It’s usually the other way around as the contender tries to slay the defender and asks for more.  But, there is nothing usual in the world of politics today.

Not if, but when it all unfolds the unexpected probably should be expected.    Meantime, get some sleep Joe.  You are going to need it.

Moving On Up, to the East Side.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Jeffery Bezos may only be worth half as much as he was a few months back, but yesterday it was revealed that he bought not one, not two, but three high rise condos on Manhattan Island, New York, NY.  As a matter of fact he liked the neighborhood, er, high rise so much that he bought the penthouse, and the space right under the penthouse, and the space right under the space right under the penthouse.  The total space will be worked into a three story condo with a modest 12 bedrooms.  The price was an Amazon Prime bargain at $80 million.   Adjusting to the single life requires a few creature comforts.

As CEO of the largest retailer in the virtual world, capitalism has been comforting to Mr. Bezos.  Though the stock is down a bit from it’s high, it’s valuation had crossed a trillion (with a “T”) dollars recently.

Capitalism has been good to the Sam Walton family as well.  As beneficiaries to Sam’s fortune created by Sam’s Clubs and Walmarts, they live life as large as they wish as well.  They just aren’t too flashy.  Walmart, the largest retailer in the brick and mortar world is valued at a palty $350 billion dollars.

So enter one Bernie Sanders yesterday into this capitalism love fest.  Walmart held its annual shareholders meeting.  Bernie had a few thoughts that he wanted heard.  Walmart said, “We have an open door, let’s hear them.”

In a three minute call to action Bernie stood up and asked that Walmart go from $11/hr as opening hourly pay for its employees up to $15/hr.  He also told the board that “regular” employees should have a seat or three on their board.

“Walmart is the largest private employer in America and is owned by the Walton family, the wealthiest family in the United States,” said Sanders. “And yet, despite the incredible wealth of its owner, Walmart pays many of its employees starvation wages — wages that are so low that many of these employees are forced to rely on government programs like food stamps, Medicaid and public housing in order to survive.”

“Frankly,” Sanders continued, “the American people are sick and tired of subsidizing the greed of some of the largest and most profitable corporations in this country.”

He cited Amazon among others as companies that have raised their entry pay level to $15/hr and continued to do well.  He is right.  Amazon has done quite well.

Walmart rejected Sander’s proposal faster than they do a vendor’s proposed price increase.  After all, shouldn’t market forces be the catalyst for wages?  America is nearing zero unemployment.  If you want more money isn’t it there if you qualify, say at Amazon, or Target or anywhere that the market forces force employers to pay up for help?  Just asking.

Maybe Bernie isn’t so crazy after all.  You see he’s chasing Joe Biden, who told America in his “I’m running for President” coming out speech in Pennsylvania that the middle class is getting left behind in the Trump years.  Joe should check the stats on the Obama/Biden years, but we digress.

So Bernie took a swing for the class a bit lower than middle yesterday.  The TV cameras loved it.  It takes a lot of video to fill 24 hours you know.  Bernie yells louder and longer for the little guy than most anyone else.  And, he doesn’t spray his hair like The Donald.  Therefore, outdoor rallies like he had after his appeal to Walmart seem to have much appeal to cameras near and far as his unkempt coif whirls like a dervish.

Jeffery Bezos, no doubt, was looking down on all of this, happy that he already has his minimums set at $15, and happy with his real estate purchase too.  Soon, but not soon enough, he’ll be looking down from 35 stories up.

These fixer upper remodels take time you know.

 

The Final Table

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

With all due respect to Sumo wrestling, does the competition, strategy, and drama get any bigger than when the World Series of Poker’s final table gets down to the last two players?  The chips are stacked high for both contestants and the stakes are higher.  For the winner the financial reward is great.  For the runner up the financial reward is good.  For the ego, winning trumps everything.

So at the final table in the World Series of Trade Negotiations (aka tariffs) we have President Donald Trump from the United States and President Xi Jinping from China (you know the country with the name that Trump pronounces “Chiii Nna”) going heads up.

The final table has been down to these two for several months now.  The hold (pocket) cards were dealt decades ago.   The US, in a sense, holds the advantage as the Chinese imports to the U.S. far outweigh the U.S. exports to China.  Plus, the U.S. economy is larger than China’s, hence its chip stack is bigger.  The Donald knows this.

Onto the board came the flop (the first three of five community cards).  And for months verbal threats about raises were bantered about.  But each player checked. And checked. Manufacturers eyes began to have that “I’ve been in Vegas too long” look about them.  Then, Trump check raised.  Last weekend, tired of the slow play, he threw down a 25% pot sweetener on about 200 billion worth of imports.  Xi Jinping didn’t blink.  He quickly called that with an import penalty on $60 billion in U.S. goods.

Now the turn (community card number four) card is exposed.  Trump immediately, showing strength, pushed further.  His administration on Wednesday slapped a major Chinese firm with an extreme penalty by adding Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. to the Commerce Department’s “entity list.”   This is effectively a death penalty for a foreign company to survive as it blocks its attempt to do business in the U.S.  You can get off of the list, but the cost is more painful than mucking a winning hand.

The department said that it reached this decision because Huawei “is engaged in activities that are contrary to national security or foreign policy interest.”  Perhaps and probably, but why now?  Why not?   Who cares as who is Huawei you ask?  Well, they are only the world’s largest telecommunications equipment maker located in, you guessed right, “Chiii Nna.”   The ramifications to Google, chip makers, the 5G platform itself, and many other global entities is huge (or yuge if you will).

Evidently, Trump isn’t bluffing.  He sits confidently sipping his favorite beverage ( “just for the taste of it, Diet Coke”) staring at his opponent.  He knows that his political base is standing right behind him yelling words of encouragement and even holding up signs in support.  “Go President Go.”  Meanwhile, Xi Jinping considers calling in a back masseuse while he ponders just how strong his hand might be compared to The Donald’s.

Next month the river (the final community card) presents itself.  The two leaders plan to meet in Japan.  President Trump often speaks to the great relationship that he has with Xi Jinping.  Hold your friends close and your enemies closer and your cards closest of all.  By then some economic damage will have been done as the world’s two biggest economic powers are under the gun but seem content to hold em for now.  The stock market has side bets pending galore.

The buy-in for the tournament was steep.  The pot has grown considerably steeper.  Both men and the countries that they represent are now pot committed.

Will we see more raises?  It sure looks likely as we see no fold from either in sight.

 

Oxygen, It’s What’s for Dinner.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Oxygen, as you know, is most essential to living.  So, when last Friday’s monsoon passed by and brought fresh air to Saturday morning, this BBR staff member decided more was better.  After a week of incessant buffoonery in the political arena a short but brisk run would be the(non political) ticket to even more fresh air to clear the head and pump the lungs.  But, the favored outdoor trail was still swamped.  Plan B took us to the treadmill in the gym.

Many others had the same idea.  The one we quickly took had, you guessed it, MSNBC on the monitor ten feet in front of us.  Evidently, there is no rest, nor exercise, for the weary.   And there they were, all of them.  It was five guests and the very partial host Joy Reid.  A split screen of six in total had each of them screaming about AG Barr’s refusal to appear again before Congress, a “Constitutional Crisis,” Trump’s tax returns, etc.  We couldn’t hear it, but the closed captioning told all.  There isn’t enough oxygen on a show to support six “experts.”  We wondered, how many people across the US would be watching at 9AM Central Time on a Saturday?  We wondered, did the six “experts” out number their entire audience?

After a commercial break, the panel shrunk to a mere four.  Those four discussed the merits and opportunities for the crowded field of 21 Democratic presidential nominee hopefuls.  There isn’t near enough oxygen for all in a race of 21 is there?  The four discussed how Senator and announced candidate Amy Klobuchar had performed on rival Fox News’ town hall last week.  Would you know Senator Amy if she was on a treadmill next to you?  Qunnipac polling shows Amy trailing nearly everyone except Michael Dukakis.  Oops, he’s not running is he?  We think he tanked in his race a while back.  She’s polling at 1.3%.  One point three percent.  And four panelists wondered how she did.  You need a lot of O2 to keep a 24/7 newsroom humming all day when CO2 fills the air.

When Joe Biden entered the race a lot of “want to be’s” started gasping for air, too.  Biden’s playing ping pong.  How far to the left will he need to serve to gather all of the minions necessary to give The Donald a good go?  Well, last week he decided to tell America that Trump was making a mistake in this trade war dance with China.  This came just a week after he seemed to express the opposite.

“China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man!” Biden exclaimed at the time. “The fact that they have this great division between the China Sea and the mountains in the East — I mean in the West. They can’t figure out how they’re going to deal with the corruption that exists within the system. They’re not bad folks, folks. But guess what, they’re not competition for us.”  East, west?  Tomatoe, tomato?  Next thing you know the Germans will be blamed for bombing Pearl Harbor.

The campaign trail is long and the job is tough.  Ask Hillary.   “Sleepy” Joe, as at least one has called him, might need some O2 along the way himself.

Meanwhile it seems like President Trump feels the fresh air.  With one huge post Russian Collusion exhale he seems invigorated.  In his ping pong match he just took five serves from every angle the Democrats could slap at him.  Now, it’s his turn to serve.  We think that he thinks that  Biden is his only competition worth worrying about.  Trump also knows that China is good at ping pong too.  Actually they are very good at it.  Yesterday, they volleyed back with a few tariffs of their own.  The stock market was watching the match from Wall St.  They don’t like long unpredictable matches.  Trump doesn’t like what Wall St. doesn’t like.

The farmers and others in the mid west are watching too.  They played a huge (yuge) roll in Trump’s 2016 election.  China’s tariffs are aimed strategically right at them.  Trump quickly announced yesterday that some of the tariffs that the US is collecting from China will go directly to the farmers in these tough times.   It’s never to early to pump some oxygen into the rust belt.

It seemed like a good time to take a deep breath and go for a run.

2020 is so far away, yet so near.

 

 

Send in the Clowns!

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Summer is usually when Hollywood releases their blockbuster movies.  You would not have known that yesterday.  The storylines spanned sports, life, and politics.  The drama was intense and the acting was on cue.   Lights, camera, and….. action!

In sports, the Boston Celtics portrayed the Washington Generals in scene one.  The Celtics acted like they were trying, but knew they were going to lose to the Harlem Globetrotters Milwaukee Bucks.  They did by a smooth 25 points.  The Washington DC based MLB Washington Nationals wanted in.  They did their best to mimic the Generals giving up six runs in the first two innings, never challenging, and losing 7-2 to the Milwaukee Brewers.  It was show time for both Milwaukee teams.

Washington DC itself then took the stage.  House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., declared a “constitutional crisis” on Wednesday after his committee voted to hold AG William Barr in contempt for defying a subpoena for Robert Mueller’s unredacted Russia report and documents.

“We’ve talked for a long time about approaching a constitutional crisis. We are now in it,” Nadler told the press on Wednesday. He indicated that the United States was at a critical time of testing whether it could stay a republic or transition into a tyrannical form government.  Dramatic indeed.  Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee stood stage left (appropriately) of Nadler as he spoke.  She nodded her head (appropriately) after each sentence.  The puppet strings from above were barely visible.  Later on MSNBC she reiterated that these contemptible White House acts were going to lead to a “Saturday Night Massacre.”  Perhaps Rep. SheJack can open for SNL soon.  “Live from New York, It’s Saturday Night Massacre!”

Just off Broadway the New York Times wanted in the play.  They mic dropped a story that showed Donald Trump lost millions of dollars in the late eighties and early nineties in the business world, and showed copies of his somehow acquired tax returns to prove it.  This really was a rerun of a remake.  But if it sells papers, so be it.  Extra, extra!

Fox News “from the left” contributor Juan Williams was live on camera to comment.  Fox casts Williams as their own Washington Generals player nightly. He helps keep it fair and balanced don’t you know?   But, this time he donned a big plastic red nose and white face clown paint (remember black face paint is very out of style these days) to opine that this proves that The Donald is unfit to lead us economically seeing as he didn’t know how to run a business. Evidently Juan missed the recent TV episodes on the network that feeds him as they reported the lowest unemployment in 49 years, a very healthy stock market, low inflation, and rising wages.

Juan’s clown outfit could come in handy to distract the raging bull when the riding cowboy gets tossed in the mud.  That bull, played by none other than President Trump himself, starred in his own road show in Panama City, FL last evening.  There he snorted and pawed the ground to the audience’s delight.  Trump is no apprentice on the big stage.  “You got some real beauties.  You have a choice between Sleepy Joe and Crazy Bernie,” he said.  The crowd roared.  “And Beto, he’s falling like a rock.”  “I’ll take any of them, let’s just pick somebody please and start this thing.”  The lead actor cares not who his cowboy rider is.  He’s ready to toss him or her.   Once the rider is on the ground send in Juan the clown to distract him.  But, when President Trump acts there are no cliffhanger endings.  Give him a chance and he will (Al) gore you.

We cannot wait for more hits this summer.  Meanwhile, Oscar nominations for all.  Bravo, bravo!