Abby Roux

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Yr 3, Wk 12

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Last week Abby won just a (kibbles and) bit more than she lost. Any week that’s a plus week versus Vegas is, well, a plus week versus Vegas.

For the season wins number 29, losses 30, and ties one.  Bones won number 45, while those given back are 38.  The hunch bet finally climbed out of a season-long backyard dug hole and stands at 4 up and 4 down.

Isn’t it so cancel culture 2020 that false positives, positives, and contact tracing are canceling plenty of games as well?  Jim Harbaugh is happy about that this week.  He would have been worked over by THE lickety-split.

Next week, Abby’s going to kick in a few NFL games for good measure as well as the NCAA games will be few and far between.   Now, to the picks.

  1. Arizona St. at Arizona -11 and 1/2 – Kevin Sumlin will saddle up and ride out of Tuscon right after this one with all of his money in bags.  The sheriff (AD) will see to it.  He’s done zero there and made a cool 9 million.  But, we think they can keep it close enough in a loss to the Sun Devils.  Home dog number one of the week.  It’s Abby’s Friday night special.  One bone.
  2. Coastal Carolina at Troy + 13 and 1/2 – This is a classic letdown spot for the most upstart team in 2020.  Troy usually plays well at home.  Home dog number two of the week.  Two bones.
  3. Stanford at Oregon St +3 – Stanford has been dreadful against the spread this year.  Oregon St has been feisty this year.  It feels like they are playing with purpose each week.  Home dog number three on the week.  Two bones.
  4. Houston ML at Memphis – The Cougars have hammered bad teams and been hammered by good ones.  Memphis falls somewhere in between.  For the value of a 2 to 1 money line bet on a five-point underdog, Abby likes the spot enough.  One bone to win two bones.
  5. LSU at Florida under 68 and 1/2 – The lost season continues for LSU.  Another week and another starter opts out.  Florida has an offense that lights up scoreboards.  These two programs don’t like each other and Florida will want some revenge from LSU’s big win last year.  LSU won’t score 24.  And Florida won’t score 44.  Two bones.

The last time Army hosted the Navy at West Point was during WWII.  On a hunch, we think that they won’t be good hosts.  As Lee Corso says weekly (even when the two teams aren’t playing)  Go Army, Beat Navy!  Take Army -7.

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Yr 3, Wk 11

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As the season coughs it’s way to the last few weeks, Abby’s picks have been a bit under the weather.  A nice parlay landed and dulled the pain of some close (but they all count) losses.  Note to doggie- Notre Dame is legit and Texas is dog $%!#.

For the season the W/L total dipped below .500 for the first time at 26-28-1.  The bones are still cashing though at a respectable 45-38.  You can take bones to the bank or bury them in the backyard.  The hunch bet which picked opposite all of the above was a hedge bet winner and stands at 3-4.

The picks below will start a gambling December to remember.

  1. ULL +3 at Appalacian St. –  Rumors swirl that Coach Billy Napier will be headed to (pick one) Vandy, South Carolina, Texas, or another step up of his choosing in 2021.  But, for now, he keeps his Cajuns ragin.  It’s a Friday night special.  One bone.
  2. Vanderbilt at Georgia over 54 – Last week the Commodores had a mason for a coach, a female for a kicker, and an offensive offense.  The kicker barely kicked and the coach was kicked out of the door.  The offense still stinks.  The ship is sinking.  Anchor down.  Dead cat bounce.  Abby hates cats but loves UGA.  Two bones.
  3. Nebraska +3 at Purdue – Nebraska has one win this year.  It came versus a winless Penn St. Tomorrow they’ll have two for no good reason at all.  One bone.
  4. Florida at Tennessee + 17 and over 63 –  The double-digit dog in this series almost always covers.  It’s at Tennessee.  Florida is due for a 40 plus point game.  Tenn needs to score 27 and the parlay cashes.   One bone to win three bones.
  5. Indiana at Wisconsin -14 – The Badgers crashed into the wall on the third turn of the season.  They annually do so.  Abby predicts a focused effort against a good Indiana team.  This line seems quite high.  Therefore, we see a zig on a zag cover. Two bones.
  6. Texas A&M at Auburn + 6 and 1/2 – The Aggie cry for inclusion (a popular word these days) in the playoffs was dented by a bland performance last week.  This week the conversation ends.  Abby sees a straight-up win for Auburn as a real possibility.  One bone.

The hunch bet has a chance to get its year-long record to .500 this week.  Texas (-7) has no business being a seven-point pick over Kansas St much less almost anybody, do they?  Remember the note to doggie above?  Abby says Hook Em anyway.

Woof!

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Yr 3, Wk 10

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Vegas wins when you tie.  It’s called the vig (also known as juice, the cut, the take, the margin, the house edge).  Abby won three (including a fun parlay) and lost three bets last week.  One was a brutal, slim 1/2 point non-cover.  So close. So far.   She won five bones and lost five bones.  The hunch bet game got “Covided out” yet again.

Viola.  Vegas loves a week like that.  It keeps you coming back for more.  And, more is below.

The season stands even at 24-24-1, the bones are still good at 41-32, and the hunch is stuck at 2-4.

  1. Notre Dame at North Carolina +5 1/2 –  A straight up win would not shock Abby Roux.  She’ll take NC to cover but suffer a heartbreaking last-second loss.  One bone.
  2. Oregon at Oregon St +14 1/2–  Home teams are a theme for her this week.  An angry home team in a rivalry game formerly known as The Civil War (that’s insensitive to say now but we digress) is even better.  One bone.
  3. Iowa St at Texas -1 – She takes yet another home team, and this one is nothing if not inconsistent.  Tom Herman has to win games like this in year four, doesn’t he?  Two bones.
  4. Kentucky at Florida under 61 and 1/2 and LSU at Texas A&M under 63 –  Alabama put 63 on Kentucky by themselves. Over is an easy peasy cover here isn’t it?  Abby always loves a good zig when others zag.  It’ll be raining cats and dogs in College Station.  Half of that is always one of Abby’s favorite weather events.  One bone to win three.
  5. Auburn +24 and 1/2 at Alabama – The Iron Bowl always has a surprise or two within the 60 minutes.  Bama wins but as Lee Corso always says, “It’ll be closer than the experts think.”  Abby doesn’t think it’ll be too much closer, but enough to cover.  One bone.
  6. Miss St at Ole Miss -9 1/2 – The Egg Bowl features the two newest and biggest coaching personalities in the game today.

    Points will come quicker than playing a pinball machine.   Kiffin is going to run up the score if he gets a chance.  Two bones.

There you have it.  Four home for the holiday’s teams in five games, and two under the total score tied into a parlay.  That’s eight bones wagered with a chance at winning 10.

On a hunch, bet the opposite of all of the above.  It’s a novel approach in the year of the novel virus.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 3, Week 8

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Sometimes Vegas giveth.  Sometimes Vegas taketh.

Last week Sin City took just a bit from Abby.

Her season-long w/l is now 19-17-1.  The most important bones are a fine 33-23 in her favor.  And, the beleaguered hunch bet is now 2-4 after it hit paydirt with a Florida cover.

Lots of games ran afoul of the pandemic this week.  The pickings are slim, but Abby dug up a few for you to gnaw on.

  1.  Miami at Va Tech -2 – This is the fourth line in the last two weeks that looks so wrong that she thinks it’s right.  One bone.
  2. Notre Dame at Boston College +14 1/2 – This is the ultimate “let down after a big win, go on the road, win but don’t cover” bet.  Abby tried this after Texas A&M beat Florida last month.  We found out that A&M wants to play hard all year.  It did not cash, but this one will.   One bone.
  3. Arkansas +17 1/2 at Florida and under 60 – Florida might still be scoring this morning on that Georgia D.  But, Abby smells a let down this week.  Arkansas +17 1/2 smells good, and under 60 smells even better.  One bone to win three bones.
  4. Army at Tulane over 47.   Both teams can score but in very different ways.  Can Tulane defend against the Army ground attack? No. Can the Army defend against the Tulane air game?  No.  Two bones.
  5. Baylor -1 at Texas Tech – We think that this is a good spot for team Aranda to put on its best defensive showing this year.  One bone.
  6. Wisconsin at Michigan + 4 and 1/2 – Jim Harbaugh said after the latest Michigan disappointment that he thought his team was really close.  Really close to what Abby inquires?  That said, this is a classic “overlooked, they are done, they will quit, no they won’t” spot.  One bone.

NBC just called Arizona for the next President of the United States.  It only took 11 days.  Abby is calling Arizona +14 1/2 over USC and Arizona St – 3 1/2 over California right after the polls close Saturday.  It’s a one bone to win three bones vote to get the hunch over the hump.

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 3, Week 7

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The SEC, ACC, and BIG 12 football schedules are half done, the BIG 10 is in week two, while the PAC-12 is just getting started.  This reminds us of the state by state vote count, but we digress.

Abby, however, remains very focused.  Week six was another winner for her.  That brings the season-long total to 17 wins, 13 losses, and one tie.   She’s brought home a sterling 29 bones while leaving 18 behind.  Her hunch bet tried to shoot the moon that she normally howls at with a three-team parlay that came up one team short.  Her hunch remains out to lunch at 1-4.

  1.  Miami Fla at North Carolina St +10 1/2–  They’re still counting in NC. When it’s all done Miami wins, NC St covers, and Trump sues.  Two bones.
  2.  Pitt at Florida St -2 – They’re still counting in Pittsburgh, PA.  They’re done in Florida.  Florida St is done as a football team too, but rises from the ashes this weekend.  Is the wrong team favored here?  Abby likes to zig when others zag.  One bone.
  3. Washington St at Oregon St. -2 –  It’ll take sixty minutes to declare Oregon St. a winner in this game.  In politics, it took sixty seconds after the polls closed for Washington and Oregon to go into the Biden win column.  Is the wrong team favored here as well?  One bone.
  4. Michigan St at Iowa -6 – They got tired in Michigan and quit at 10:30 pm counting ballots on Tuesday night.  Iowa will make Mich St. quit in the fourth quarter of this one.  Two bones.
  5.  Texas A&M at South Carolina + 10 1/2 and Tennessee -2 at Arkansas –  The Donald carried all of the SEC states except Georgia which is pending.  This is our SEC two-team parlay special.  If Abby loses this one (or two) she’ll demand a recount.  One bone to win three bones.
  6.  Florida v Georgia under 53 and 1/2 –  There is nothing pending about Georgia’s D.  It’s good.  It’ll slow down Florida’s O a bit.  There’s nothing pending about Georgia’s O.  It’s average at best.  Florida’s D is as well, but it will be good enough to get a stop or two.  Two bones.

Abby’s hunch bet nearly got put in the dog house again this week.  She likes UGA the dog so much (as a friend of course), but she likes the Florida Gators + 3 1/2 as a live dog this weekend.

Woof!

Abby Takes Down Vegas-Year Three, Week Five

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby felt a bit hungover Sunday.  After a four week run, her picks last week tasted as fine as warm Mad Dog 20/20 wine.

The week brought reality back into the season-long results.  Wins are 11 v losses at nine.  One tie.  The most important bones wagered are 17 up v 13 down.  The hunch is 1-2 after a rare bye week last week.

A little hair of the dog to cure what ails you is below.

  1. Notre Dame at Pittsburgh +9 1/2 – Notre Dame enters week 5 undefeated and with high hopes.  Notre Dame is good, not great.  Pitt is not great but good enough.  It’s a simple home dog who gets up for the big game. ND wins, but it’s close.  Two bones.
  2. South Carolina @ LSU -6 –  This line opened at 6 and went quickly to 7 and 1/2.  It’s back to 6 as LSU will start a true freshman in place of the injured Myles Brennan.  LSU also self-imposed penalties for football recruiting violations this week.  At least a hurricane didn’t hit town this week.  Zig bet.  Three bones.
  3. Baylor +9 at Texas and under 61 – Parlays aren’t for everyone.  Dave Aranda’s D isn’t for everyone.  But, it’ll slow the high scoring Longhorns just enough to cover the points and the under.  One bone to win three bones.
  4. Oklahoma -6 and 1/2 at TCU-  This is a good spot for TCU.  But we think the next great NFL coach (ahem) builds on the quadruple OT win in the Red River Shootout somehow with a late cover.  One bone.
  5. Kentucky at Missouri +5 and 1/2 and Florida St. at Louisville – 4 and 1/2– What’s up with two parlays in one week?  It’s go time to gather some bones.  Kentucky travels back to back weeks and comes off of a big win at Tennessee.  Is Florida St capable of two big efforts in a row?  Nah.  One bone to win three bones.

The Big Ten opens for business finally in 2020.  Betting week one is dangerous.  Spotting 20 in week one is even more dangerous.  Badger happy hours for Friday games start about right now and are most dangerous.  On a hunch take Illinois plus 20 at Wisconsin.

Party on!

Woof!

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Three, Week Two

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Abby is feeling fine after a tough kennel cough a week ago.  Her picks picked her up a bit as well.  It was a very good week.  For year three she’s now 10-5-1 in wins and losses with one tie.  The most important bones won are 15 v only seven lost.  Boom.  The hunch bet is out to lunch thus far at 1-2.  Times’ a wasting and Abby is 24 minutes from this deadline.  Briefly, we pick.

  1.  Houston +5 v. BYU  – Houston is legit for who they are.  BYU will realize that 12 hours from now.  A straight up win by the underdog would not surprise this dog.  One bone.
  2. Auburn -3 v South Carolina  – This line is so sweet it almost worries her.  Two bones.
  3. Kentucky at Tennessee -5 1/2–  We’ve ridden Tenn the last half of last year and every week so far this year.  Ain’t no stoppin’ us now.  Two bones.
  4. Ole Miss -1 1/2 v. Arkansas-  Arkansas has a legit coach which has turned a bunch of scallywags into a decent team.  But they lose a close one this week.  One bone.
  5. Georgia at Alabama -4 1/2–  Georgia has a D.  Bama has an O.  Bama has a head coach with Covid-19.   Close till quarter four, then hear Bama roar.  Two bones.

On a hunch we are going to take a subscriber’s advice and take a time out this week on the hunch bet.

Eight bones.  Four SEC chalks.

Wear your mask.  It might help.  It might not.

Woof.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Three, Week Three

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We’ll be brief this AM.  We’re lucky Abby studied the board early this week as she has a bad cough and a runny snoot.  Hopefully her improvement this AM means we can avoid waiting in the dreaded car line for the dreaded swab up the nose halfway to Omaha.

Meanwhile, she’s off to a good start in dreaded 2020.  Through two weeks she’s 6-4-1 picking games against the spread while winning nine bones waged and losing only six.  She had a hunch that The Donald would win, win, win v the dreaded one as well.  So the Hunch Bet evens at 1-1.

Texas Tech +13 at Iowa St. – Iowa St lost to ULL three weeks ago.  Last week the Cyclones beat Oklahoma.  Today a hurricane is going to beat up ULL’s campus.  It’s 2020.  Abby says Iowa St wins but doesn’t cover.   One bone.

Florida at Texas A&M + 6 1/2 –  This line makes little sense to Abby.  Florida looks great out of the gate.  Meanwhile, A&M struggled v. Vandy in their opener and got their annual beatdown from Bama last week.  She’s going to zig when others zag.  Abby smells a Vegas zig when others zag.  One bone.

Oklahoma -2 v Texas-  Two of the most disappointing teams early square off in the Red River Shootout.   Could Oklahoma possibly lose three in a row with the next great NFL coach roaming the sidelines we ask in jest?  Sure.  But, on the other sidelines roams the greatest college coach hired three years ago we say in jest.  Hmm.  Neither team plays defense.  Okla gets one more stop than Texas.  Three bones.

Alabama at Mississippi + 24–  Nick Saban has never lost to a former pupil turned head coach.  It won’t happen this week either.  And it won’t be close.  But it will be close enough for Kiffin’s crew to cover.  One bone.

Miami at Clemson -14 –  This is the year.  Miami is the real deal this time.  We’ve heard this before.  D’Eriq King is the real deal.  We’ve heard this before. So is Clemson.  One bone.

To escape the perils of Hurricane Delta LSU moved its game to Missouri. The line went from -21 to minus 14.  But, the line that stayed close to the same is the o/u of 55.  Abby loves her some under.  On a hunch take under 55.

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 3, Week 2

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Week one predicting isn’t for everyone.

Abby isn’t everyone.  She pawed her way to four bones while giving back two.  Her record was 2-2-1 (Louisville pushed the bet) and her hunch didn’t punch the ticket.  That’s plenty good enough in a week that LSU and Oklahoma went down in flames while others played flat (Texas A&M) and others barely escaped (Texas).

“Enough already, on to week two,” Abby barks.

  1.  Boston College +14 1/2 v. North Carolina- Old Mack Brown has the Tarheels on the right path.  But we’ll take a determined BC at home to cover late.  One bone.
  2. Duke +12 v Virginia Tech- Ditto the above.  One bone.
  3. Baylor at West Virginia +3 –  Dave Aranda’s D will hold WVA down below their usual point production.  But, but we expect the Mountaineers to cover and in fact win outright at home.  One bone.
  4. Ole Miss @ Kentucky -6 – The Rebels defense is offensive.  Kentucky is clearly the better team and angry coming home from a road spanking at Auburn.  Three bones.
  5. Auburn @ Georgia -7 – Abby loves Bulldogs.  Auburn will give it their all and keep it close for three quarters, but Georgia covers late.  Two bones.
  6.  Arkansas @ Mississippi St. -16.5 – Abby loves Bulldogs.  We could see a letdown after the LSU beatdown.  But Arkansas can’t score enough to keep it inside of three scores.  One bone.

The world awakens this AM to the news that President Trump has the coronavirus.  He’s 74.  He’ll beat it like a drum.  He’s nothing if not a fighter.  Take over 74 as the hunch bet lock of the year.  Get well soon, Mr. President.

There it is.  Abby has four home teams, three underdogs, two bulldogs, and one president while chasing nine bones.

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 3, Week 1

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It’s hard to believe but Abby begins year three already of her doggone good picking prowess for BBR this AM.  And she’s been doggone good indeed.  Take a look at last year’s final picks and overall standing here.  Bow wow wow!

This year’s picks start a month later than usual.  Thanks a lot COVID-19.  Break a leg why don’t cha already?

As a refresher, consider each bone equal to an $11 wager to win $10.  Damn bookies and their juice, Abby growls.

  1. Central Florida v East Carolina under 77 1/2- UCF is good again this year.  East Carolina is bad again this year.  Seventy-seven and one-half points is a lot in any year.  UCF wins handily, but the total is spared.  One bone.
  2. Tenessee -3 at South Carolina- Who gave up the fewest points in the last six games of their schedule last year in the SEC?  Ala who?  LS who?  It was the Volunteers.  Jeremy Pruitt has something started in Knoxville.  Plus, Abby is a sucker for a blue tick hound.   Three bones.
  3. Louisville +3 at Pittsburgh-  Louisville ran into an inspired Miami team last week.  Pitt is good, but never that good in the ACC.  This is a nice bounce-back spot for the Cardinals.  Two bones.
  4. Kentucky +8.5 at Auburn- Kentucky is to the SEC as Pitt is to the ACC.  Is this year different?  Stoops’ team is more talented than any since he arrived in Lex.  Auburn wins, but it will be closer than the experts think as Lee Corso says.  One bone.
  5. Florida -14 at Ole Miss- Florida returns a lot of talent and a solid to darn good QB in Kyle Trask.  Abby loves home dogs but thinks that the Rebels/Black Bears are just outmanned here.   One bone.

LSU hosts Miss St. and new head coach Mike Leach and his Air Raid O Saturday.  LSU lost plenty of offensive weapons.  But, LSU has plenty of new offensive weapons.   Leach loves to throw the ball.  The o/u line is 57.5.  It looks low.   But it’s game one for both.  Expect LSU to run the ball a bit more than last year.  We’ll zig when others zag here.  Take under 57.5.

There you have it-four roadies and an under and a hunch on another under to start the year.

Win or lose, at least it’s a start.  Are you listening PAC 12?