Abby Roux

Deal the Wild Cards

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby’s been playing some serious Texas Hold Em with her college football bet winnings these last few weeks.  She’s feeling good (maybe too good) about her picking prowess.  In between hands of poker last evening she decided to try her paw at the NFL Wild Card Games this weekend.  She gnawed on and pawed her way to the following.

Buffalo Bills v. Houston Texans (-2 1/2) – The Bills have had a fine year defensively and have a developing quarterback in Josh Allen.  They are a very live underdog this weekend.  However, the Texans have a developing quarterback that is more developed and can make game breaking plays with his feet.  Abby expects this one to be close for three quarters, but likes the Texans to cover.

Tennessee Titans v. New England Patriots (-5 1/2) – What’s wrong with New England?  What’s wrong with Tom Brady?  Is this the beginning of the end?  The media’s rampant “what’s wrong with” story line is just the fuel to fire up Mister Belichick and Mister Brady.  Tennessee comes in as the 6th seed and likely will play loose.  They are a trendy pick.  Abby likes a to zig when others zag.  The Patriots cover and it’s not really close.

Minnesota (+8) v. New Orleans – This looks to Abby as the toughest game to handicap this weekend.  Her contract with BBR insists that she make a pick, but she wouldn’t bet much doggone money on it.  New Orleans has been scoring points at a prodigious pace recently.  But, Minnie has been their kryptonite.  New Orleans gets it done at home, but eight points and a healthy Dalvin Cook provide enough to cover.

Seattle (-1 1/2) v. Philadelphia – Seattle is the lower seed as Philly is the division champion.  Philly hasn’t looked much like a champion in the weak NFC East.  Seattle has played significantly better against significantly better teams all year.  This one seems almost too obvious.  Seattle wins outright.

Abby’s got two jacks for hold cards.  Like the Wild Card weekend that’s a dangerous bet.

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week 15

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And here come the NCAA Conference Championship games.  Whew.  That was quick.  Anyone having withdrawals before it’s even over?

After a week in NOLA Abby is having a few withdrawals of her own of a different kind.  But, the elixir proved to be mixed just like a fine hand crafted cocktail. It got the job done.

Her back to back weeks of picks from the road make you want one more round in the worst way.  Week 13’s won/loss record was 5-1, while week 14 was 4-1.  That brings her season long record to a fine 39-34. Woof. The way more important bones wagered took home ten of eleven then seven of eight.  Therefore, Abby has taken 78 of them from Vegas while only paying 55.  That is a degenerate gambler good win percentage of 58.6%  Woof!  Woof!  Meanwhile the hunch bet split the last two weeks and stands on all four legs at 10-5.  Woof!  Woof!  Woof!

Enough with the barking already.  It’s time to earn some more pats on the head.

Oregon + 7 v Utah –  The Utes are the best team no one has seen this year.  Oregon is the first ranked team, when the game is played, the Utes will play this year.  Utes win, Ducks cover.  One bone.

Baylor v Oklahoma -9 – The Bears are the second best team no one has seen play this year.  They led Oklahoma by 25 at one point in their first meeting.  Not this time. The Sooners make a statement by hanging half a hundo on Baylor to give the Playoff Committee something to think about.  Two Bones.

UAB +7 1/2 v FAU – Is Lane Kiffin’s honeymoon in south Florida over?  Rumors swirl about new girlfriends (head coaching jobs at Arkansas) every year about this time.  UAB dances with the one they brought and wins straight up.  One bone.

Georgia v LSU over 54 1/2 – Most of the talk pregame is about how good Georgia’s D is.  The rest of the talk is about how Georgia is either hurt or suspended at the skill positions.  It’s a zig when others zag.  Expect Georgia to put up 20 plus and LSU to put up 30 plus, just enough to cover on a fast track in the Mercedes Benz Georgia Dome.  Two bones.

Cincinnati v Memphis under 57 1/2 –  These two met last week and scored 58 total points.  Meeting in back to back weeks we like the under as Abby assumes (you know what happens when you assume?) the two D’s will learn from the film more than the two O’s will change what they do.  One bone.

We make no hunch bet this week.  But we do have a hunch.  On a hunch expect Oklahoma (if Georgia loses) to jump Utah and gain the #4 seed.

Woof, again!

P.S.  Abby howls at the moon in amazement at how the playoff committee ranks Alabama as low as they do.

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Fourteen

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Shame on Abby.  She brought her PC on the road but forgot the power cord.  The battery is low,  The picks, briefly, are below.

Virginia Tech -3 v Virginia  –  Va Tech continues to late in season impress.  One bone.

Texas -9 v. Texas Tech – Texas has to beat some one soon and soundly don’t they?  One bone.

THE -8 v. Michigan –  Ohio St. is better, period.  One bone.

Wisconsin -2 v. Minnesota – Whisky is better, period.  Three bones.

Oregon St. +20 1/2 v. Oregon – Oregon is better, period.  But, the Beavers will keep it closer than three touchdowns.  Two bones.

Texas A&M and LSU combined to score 146 points in seven overtimes last year.  The over and under total this year is 64 1/2.  Take the under on a hunch.

Gobble Gobble and Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Twelve

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Abby made her picks earlier this week as she is in Washington to honor Conan the Dog as you and all of America knows.  We suggested that she (e)mail her picks to us since she’s been mailing them in all year based on the results.  After two growls and one snarl she bared her canines and barked out the winners for the week.

For the season, after a 3-3 week, her record now stands at 26 wins and 30 losses.  But the more important bones wagered now is a paw up at 51 bones collected v. 50 buried.  Her hunch took a rare punch and fell to 9 wins against only 3 losses.

It’s week 12.  In honor of that we give you a baker’s dozen bones worth panting about below.

Memphis v Houston +10 1/2 – Memphis comes off an emotion charged home win over previously undefeated SMU.  No doubt that the Tigers are better than the Cougars.  But, Abby thinks the Tigers might be taking a cat nap, at least for a half, in this spot.  Two bones.

Georgia -3 v Auburn – Abby thinks that this is the game of the week to watch, though she prolly just wants to preen for UGA. Georgia is playing for everything as the current playoff 4th seed.  Late, in a slugfest, they cover.  Four bones.

Texas +7 v Iowa St. –  This line looks off to her.  Tom Herman has looked off in year two of his Longhorn tenure.  Abby looks for Texas to have a great chance to win outright. That would be their best win on the year, which isn’t saying very much.  Two bones.

Stanford +11 v. Washington St. –  You’ve heard this before, now you can hear it again.  Few teams in the PAC 12 deserve to be favored by double digits over few other teams.  One bone.

Michigan St. v Michigan -13 – This in state big rivalry game is always hard fought and usually pretty close.  Not this year.  The Spartans are fading and the Wolverines seem energized.  Two bones.

South Carolina v Texas A&M -12 and LSU v Mississippi +21 1/2 –  Abby is actually going to tease a parlay by buying six points for two teams.  She’ll take Texas A&M -6 and Mississippi + 27 1/2.  A two team teaser pays even money.  Two bones to win two bones.

There you have it.  It’s seven games, six bets, and thirteen bones.

Oh, and on a hunch Abby has spotted a CRAZY line.  UMass at 1-9 travels to 1-8 Northwestern.  How can Northwestern, inept at scoring be favored by 41 over anyone when they cannot score 41 on anyone?  Take Northwestern -41 on a hunch.  Why?  Because it makes absolutely no sense.  It’s a Vegas mind game.

Enjoy the games.

Woof!

 

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two Week Eleven

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It’s been quite the week for Abby.  She was invited to the White House Lawn (that’s the logical place for the ceremony) to honor her German Shepard buddy, Conan the Dog, who is recovering from some wounds suffered in the operation that took out Baghdadi.  Naturally, she’s been primping a good bit at the doggie parlor ahead of the event.

Meanwhile for the season the 23 wins are trailing the 27 losses.  The bones won count is 45, while lost are 46.

Though, worry not.  While under the hair dryer she’s been taking a long look at this week’s betting opportunities.  And she likes what she sees. Oh, and her hunch bet is hair raising 9 wins against only 2 losses.  The winners follow.

Florida St. +2 1/2 v Boston College – Willie’s gone.  We are counting on a dead cat bounce out of the Seminoles.   Abby doesn’t like cats but will make an exception when it comes to money.  Bob Stoops is watching.   Two bones.

Penn St. -6 1/2 v. Minnesota – This is the “other game” of 8-0 teams this weekend.  P.J. Fleck will have the Golden Gophers playing like their hair is on fire.  But, the Nittany Lions have quite the mane themselves.  The fourth quarter is when James Franklin’s team pulls away.  One bone.

Baylor v. TCU + 2 1/2 –  Baylor is yet another 8-0 team.  No more.  You can’t look ahead to contests v. Texas and Oklahoma.  You’ve heard of the hair of the dog?  This one is the no hair on the Horned Frog.  TCU wins straight up.  Two bones.

UAB + 7 1/2 v. Southern Mississippi –  Abby’s been long on UAB all year except last week.  A straight up win here would not surprise her either.  One bone.

Tennessee +1 v. Kentucky –  Tennessee has somewhat quietly beat Mississippi St., South Carolina, and UAB by 10, 20, and 23 points in the last month.  The lone loss was a 35-13 road loss in Tuscaloosa.  Three bones.

Vanderbilt v. Florida over 49 –  Dan Mullen will find something to complain about.  He always does.  But, it won’t be his offense.  Abby smells a total approaching 70 and thinks Florida will get 56 by themselves.

The media has spent two weeks talking about Burrow and Tua and two explosive offenses in “The Game of the Century, Part II.”  On a hunch Abby likes under the 63 point total.  And why wouldn’t she?  The man who oversees the greatest defense in the world will be watching.  How can you trump that?

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Nine

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Vegas giveth.  Vegas taketh.

We should have known better.  Abby’s nose was warm to the touch last week.  She felt like a dog.   But she insisted that she had a hunch about the games and the lines.  It turns out that she was right on her hunch bet again and wrong on most all else.

For the season she has won 19 games and lost 21.  More importantly she has collected 38 bones and lost 37.  If you haven’t been on her hunch bet after a 9-2 season last year, you should be on it this year.  It’s now 7 wins against only 2 losses.  Bow wow!

Abby’s nose is cool bordering on cold and so is the fall football weather.   Abby’s chasing winners this week, no more parked cars.

Mississippi St v. Texas A&M -10 1/2 —  In a marron and white v. maroon and white game Abby likes the home unis.  A&M has more to play for.  Moo St. looks like it might be closing down shop for a long winter.  Two bones.

Indiana v. Nebraska -2 1/2 —  In a red and white v. red and white game Abby likes the home unis.  As the morning frost melts Scott Frost’s tenure at Lincoln needs to heat up.  Indiana is a surprising 5-2, but Big Red rolls by 14.  Two bones.

Texas -1 1/2 v. TCU  —  Tom Herman’s tenure at Texas needs to warm up, too.  And, Texas needs a defense.  It took 50 points and a last second field goal for them to dispatch Kansas.  Jeez.  Abby thinks Herman gets them going this week, and the Burnt Orange rolls by 14.  Two bones.

Texas Tech v. Kansas +3 1/2 —  Les Miles fired his previous OC three games in after they scored all of seven on Costal Carolina.  The result a few weeks later?  They put 48 on Texas last week.  If only he did the same at LSU a few years back.  Jeez.  Jayhawks win this one straight up.  Two bones.

California +21 1/2 v. Utah —  Abby continues to contend that no one in the PAC 12 should be favored over anyone else by 14 much less 21 and change.  This seems like a lot of points in what should be a low scoring game.  One bone.

On a hunch take Washington St. plus 14 1/2 at Oregon.  Abby continues to contend that no one in the PAC 12 should be favored over anyone else by 14.   Washington St. usually plays the Ducks pretty closely.   Maybe the Cougars can lose a close shootout after Oregon’s big road win over Washington a week ago.

Woof.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 8

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Abby began the second half of the NCAA football season more like a lion roaring than a dog barking last week.  Vegas called and offered her a comped dog suite this week complete with a mani and pedi bar, lap pool, and a dog run in hopes of getting her back to the sports book.  For the week she won four of five against the spread, collected a very impressive eight of nine bones, and punched the hunch bet ticket yet again.  Vegas needs to try to get even.

For the season Abby’s four paws stand at 19 wins and 16 losses, winning 38 and losing 29 bones wagered, and improved her hunch bet to a gaudy six wins and only two losses.

As a reminder each bone is the hypothetical equivalent of betting $11 to win $10 as Vegas takes the $1 juice when they win.  So in winning 38 bones she has collected $380 (38 x $10).  In losing 29 bones she has lost $319 (29 x $11).  The net take season to date is $61 on a win percentage of 57% (38/67).   If you bet $11 on each hunch bet you would have won $60 while giving back only $22.  Enough with the calculus, and on to this week’s opportunities.

It’s big spreads and big home dogs week.  Abby loves home dogs, but is wary of big home dogs and big favorites.  In the top 6 Alabama, LSU, THE, Clemson and Wisconsin are all on the road and are favored by an average of 27 points while Oklahoma is a 33 1/2 home favorite.  Woof!  Be careful.

Purdue v. Iowa -17 —  Iowa’s offensive scores are few and far in between.  Iowa’s defensive scores allowed are even fewer and farther in between.  Purdue has underwhelmed Abby to this point.  It’s a Big 10 grind and an Iowa win 33-10 with a late cover.  One bone.

Florida -5 v. South Carolina and Under 46 1/2 —  Will Muschamp, fresh off of a huge road upset over Georgia, hopes that his team can keep the mojo going at home.  Dan Mullen, fresh off of a 42-28 LSU road loss, hopes his Gators can recapture the mojo that lead to the 6-0 start.  Abby will pair the Gator win with the under.  Both teams scored a lot last week, while this one sets up to be a slobber knocker.  One bone to win Three Bones.

Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +4—  Has Abby ever mentioned that she loves home dogs?

The Orangemen’s season is basically on the line here.  They are one of the bigger disappointments season to date in the Power Five Conferences.  Abby is sniffing an outright win, but will wag her tail if she gets a cover.  Two bones.

Florida St. +2 v. Wake Forest —  Willie Taggert said last week that his team is close to being “right there” again in the ACC.  Then they went out and got worked by the Clemson Tigers.  If there is any fight left in the Seminoles (seems like an offensive name to Abby) they’ll win straight up.  Two bones.

Baylor v. Oklahoma St -4 —  On paper this almost seems like the wrong team is favored.  Abby has been long on the resurgent Bears all year.  But, the line and the spot seem right for a Cowboy victory by about a touchdown.  We’ll call it 38-31 Okie St.  One bone.

Oregon v. Washington +3 —  Abby chases ducks whenever possible.  Her Husky friend does the same.  Oregon seems to be the best in the west by a fair margin.  But, we see two loses on their tail feathers and this is the second and final one.  One Bone.

On a hunch Abby is taking LSU v. Mississippi St. under 62 total points.  LSU has nearly averaged that on their own this year.  But.  This game is sandwiched in between Florida and Auburn.  LSU runs the ball a lot this week, rests several regulars, serves a few more suspensions, and plays some D to hold Moo St. to less than 17.

Start spreading the news.  Abby also likes the ball in Verlander’s hand tonight.

Woof!

 

 

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Seven

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It’s hard to believe but after Saturday 50% of the regular NCAA season will be gone.  But, 50% remains.  And, what remains will be the better half as conference play is now the norm.

Abby and her bank account reaches the halfway mark just a bit ahead of that 50/50 area.  For the season her picks are 15 up v. 15 down.  The more important bones collected are 30 up and 28 down.  And, her amazing (dog) run on hunch (LY was 9-1) bets continues this year, now standing at 5 wins and only 2 losses.

Halloween is still three weeks away.  Some of the lines are a bit spooky.  Bravely, to the boneyard we go!

Virginia v. Miami -2 —  Virginia’s head coach is a Broncho, but Miami’s team speed is a Mustang.  It’ll be 90 degrees with 90 percent humidity down there tomorrow night.  Miami sweats out a late Cavalier drive and wins by more than 2 and less than 7.  One bone.

Oklahoma v. Texas +11 —  Texas upset Oklahoma last year in the Red River Rivalry.  A few years back this was called the Red River Shootout.    The PC crowd was upset about the violent name.  Nobody in the Big 12 plays violently, so what’s the big deal?  Expect a lot of scoring in this shootout.  Oklahoma gets the win, but so does Texas and the points.  One bone.

Mississippi St. v Tennessee + 7 —  This is Abby’s game of the month. How much better can it get?   It’s a bulldog vs. a blue tick hound!  And, the hound dog is a live home dog.  A straight up win by the Volunteers is possible.  There might even be a dog pile in the checkerboard endzone post game.  Four bones.

Cincinnati v. Houston + 7 1/2 —  The Bearcats are riding high after a home upset of UCF and have arrived in the AP Top 25 this week at #25.  They might leave H Town with a straight up loss and fall back into the dreaded “others receiving votes” mix mash.  One bone.

UAB -12 v. UTSA —  This is the eye chart game with all capital letters.  So far this year UAB passes the eye test.  That little bird that Abby keeps telling us about has a birdseye view of this one.  One bone.

The left coast has been great to Abby for hunches that win bunches.  Last week 16 point favorite Washington lost straight up to Stanford.   This week they are favored in Tuscon by 6 over the Arizona Wildcats.  Abby feels like the odds makers are begging you to take Arizona.  On a hunch she likes the Huskies doggone it.

 

Abby has again assigned the BBR staff to cover the LSU game live.  Work, work, work.

Woof, woof, woof!

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Six

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Psst.  You heard the one about the old dog and new tricks?  Don’t tell Abby.  She walked around the global headquarters of BBR last week with the hair standing straight up on her back.  She subscribes to the Vince Lombardi mantra, “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.”  And after last Saturday, Coach Lombardi, from high above is proud of Abby.  Her picks cashed on four of the five games.  Even better than that, the bones won were nine of the ten wagered!  Woof, woof!  Her hunch bet also pawed the paydirt.

For the season Abby is now 13 of 25 on the picks, and importantly 25 of 48 bones.  Her hunch bet is now four up and only two down.  That’s enough scratching of her back.  It’s time to get back to the work of the weekend ahead.

Tulane v. Army +3 — It’s Homecoming for the Cadets.  Abby’s barking about a straight up win.  Abby wonders if Tulane’s D can stop the Army’s ground attack?   Is the right team favored?  Two bones.

Texas v West Virginia +10 1/2 —  WVa is a much better team at home than the road.  She likes home dogs.  Might Texas be a tad bit sluggish on the East Coast coming off of a bye and looking ahead to the Red River Shootout v. Oklahoma next week?  Abby says the Horns pull this out of the fire late, something like 35-31.  Two bones.

Auburn v. Florida (over 49) —  Lee Corso can put on a Gator, War Eagle, Plainsman, or Tiger hat and all Abby will do is yawn.  This one is billed as a mighty defensive struggle.  Abby likes to zig when others zag.  One bone.

Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -7 —  Ole Miss isn’t very good.  The cellar of the West Division of the SEC awaits.  Vandy is worse.  The cellar of the East Division of the SEC awaits.  It’s tough to wager too much on a bad team, but Abby is yapping loudly about the Black Bears.  Two bones.

Utah St. v. LSU (under 73) —  LSU’s new fangled offense is due for a pit stop somewhere on this record setting road, isn’t it?  Conversely, LSU’s defense is past due at the toll booth, isn’t it?  Abby might be chasing a parked car here.  But, with an 11 AM kickoff she’ll beat the rush hour.  Three Bones.

Abby mentioned last week that no one deserved to be a double digit dog in the PAC 12 v. anyone else in the PAC 12 except maybe Oregon St.  On a hunch take Stanford +16 at home v. Washington.  Abby is a big fan of The Tree for obvious reasons.

The uncharacteristically slow start to the season looked like it aged Abby almost one dog year.  No more.   The bounce is back in her stride.

Enjoy the games as the conference tilts are upon us.

Woof!