NCAA F

The Glass of Water is Half Full

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s hard to look past Minneapolis this morning.  A terrible act of violence is being compounded by multiple bad decisions by city, state, and federal officials.  But, we will look past it.

The glass of water is half full this AM.  Believe it.  The nation had an outdoor party last weekend and a short work week as well.  It’s time to build on that.

Let’s talk about football.

Many plans have been put in place by both the NCAA and the NFL.  For now, with many fingers crossed, it seems like both will start on time and play before live audiences.

Given where we were a few weeks back, we’d be happy if the stadiums could only be, like the glass of water, half full.

For the Jacksonville Jaguars that would be business as usual.  Don’t laugh Rams fans. You’ve been practicing social distancing ever since your team decided to move back a few seasons ago.  The Chargers stadium has been full (all of 30k capacity) but it’s been with opposing fans. Shame, shame.

That aside, plenty of fun is straight ahead we hope.  We hope.

Can Joe Burrow be a savior in Cincy?  How cool will the stadium nearly on the Vegas strip be?  Tom Brady is the QB in Tampa!  What does NE look like without Tom?  Can KC repeat?  How bout dem Cowboys?  Phillip Rivers leads Indy in a wide open division.

Were the LSU Tigers a one-hit-wonder, or is Coach O building the program to another level?  Who will emerge this year from the pack to surprise?  Florida anyone?  Alabama sat home when the playoffs began.  Nick’s probably pretty mad about that.  THE Ohio St. is recruiting so well you’d almost think they were paying their players.  Does Texas get on the national stage?  Oregon is coming.  USC wants to make some noise too.  Is it still Clemson and their sons in the ACC?  Will Oklahoma actually field a defense?  Is Mississippi big enough for two egos named Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin?

We could go on.  And on.  Instead, we’ll pat ourselves on the back for our season win total winners in the NFL in San Fran(over) and Oakland (over) as well as a winning season in bones wagered, hunch bets, and wins for ABBY in the NCAA Friday column.

Soon enough it will all be here.  It’s under 90 days and counting right now.

We’re going to have a weekly bet column from here till the week one kickoff.  It’ll cover a wide range of propositions, teams, divisions, and cover both college and pro.

If you have a thought to share along the way, or a suggestion for a prop bet, drop us a comment or three.

Otherwise, fire up the smoker.

 

 

Trickle Down Faces Fourth Down

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

In 1980 as newly inaugurated President Ronald Reagan strode into the Oval Office the American economy was a mess.  Interest rates reached double digits, unemployment was nearing the same, and inflation was rampant.

One of his economic team’s solution bets was to dramatically reduce the higher and eliminate the highest federal tax rates on the books.  The phrase “trickle-down economics” was born.  In essence if you incent the rich the poor would benefit was how opponents spun the policy.  Political opponents of the Reagan administration soon seized on this language in an effort to brand the administration as caring only about the wealthy.

The holy Reverend Jessie Jackson actually used his outrage against it, or “Reaganomics” as it also was mockingly called, to rally his minority base and make a run a the Democratic nomination a time or two.

Today, we face severe economic challenges as well.  While interest rates and inflation are quite tame, we have unemployment levels not seen since the Great Depression over 100 years ago.  Our economic challenges are different, varied, and numerous.

And, like it or not, the effect of “trickle-down” economics is in full view all over again.  If a business cannot open, it’s employees can’t work.  If they can’t work, the gas station sells less gas.  And, so on and so on.

One such “so on” is college athletics.  Yesterday, ESPN published a story with some staggering facts about what has happened in the spring of 2020 to the programs, and more importantly what will happen if there was no college football.  In short, the loss would total $4 billion dollars to the Power Five school’s revenue. It would alter, if not eliminate men’s and women’s revenue loss programs and decimate the administrations that manage them.

But one stat caught our attention more so than all of the others.  Of the 52 public (private ones have no legal need to share revenue info) Power 5 schools included in the Syracuse University study, only 3.8% cite football ticket sales as their biggest revenue source 2017-18.  That’s but two teams of the 52!

The fallout, therefore, from game day sales of shirts, parking, booze, concessions is significant.  If you have no games, you have no parking attendants. Unemployment.  Your popcorn vendor can keep the kernels.  Unemployment.  The t-shirt manufacturer can keep the ink dry.  Unemployment.  The beer distributor can keep the hops. Unemployment.

Even if social distancing forces limiting stadiums to half capacity; half of yesterday is 100% more than nothing.

TV revenue is the most important source of income from these events for many colleges.  The TV trucks don’t drive to the location. The production team stays home.  The TV station ad salesman sells no ads.  The ad agency produces fewer ads. Unemployment times four.  You get the picture, but not on your TV.

Trickle-down, like it or not, is our economy.

How many schools’ athletic departments saved for a rainy day?  Just about as many as American businesses both big and small.

Are you hoping and praying that you will actually be able to see live college football this fall?

So are several institutions and industries that live for live football.

They bet on the trickle-down effect yearly for their livelihood.

 

 

 

2020 NCAA Football. Kickoff or Punt?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Although it’s never really the offseason anymore, the NCAA football programs usually enter the offseason filled with questions that need answers.  This offseason was no different on the questions part.

Schools are out for summer and plenty of the questions remain.  A few that were answered are subject to change.  That is life in 2020 as the biggest questions still loom and the answers remain unknown.

Will colleges play football in the fall?  Will the NCAA allow it?  Will the virus allow it?

We offer eight questions below and offer more than eight answers.  It’s always good to hedge your football bets.

  1.  Will the NCAA dictate if and when the schools, teams, and conferences can kickoff.  No.  They’ll give generalized recommendations, but NCAA President Mark Emmert already stated that there will be no uniform start date this fall suggested by the for now governing body.
  2. Why did he say that?  He said that because he is smart enough to know that there isn’t one answer across hundreds of schools and fifty states.  He is also smart enough to know that the Power 5 conferences are watching carefully.
  3. Why are the Power 5 conferences watching carefully?  Well, they rule the roost.  If ever there was a time that they might break free of the NCAA and form their own governing body this might be it.  Football is BIG money for the BIG 12, BIG 10, PAC 12, ACC, and SEC.  It supports (with a bit of help from basketball and rarely baseball) all other sports teams, both male and female, that are revenue drains not adds.  Some schools subsidize their academic costs with football generated revenue.  If ever there was a year when revenue is needed, 2020 is it.  If you take the air out of football you’ll take the air out of the entire 2020-21 academic sports calendar year.
  4. So, will college football be played in the fall?  No, yes, and maybe.  “No” is the answer if the enemy spikes in the next four weeks to the point where wisdom and prevailing sentiment dictate otherwise.  “Yes” is the answer as of today for some schools in some states that crave it, depend on it, and have state government support for it.  That’s first and foremost the SEC.  Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana are opening back up for business in an aggressive manner v. many other states.  LSU announced its intention to have classes on campus as early as summer session number 2 in July.  “Maybe” is the answer for many schools as of now as they take a wait and see approach.
  5. What if half suit up and half don’t?  Follow the money.  Teams will reschedule opponents to the level they can to fill the fall calendar, and collect TV money to fill the bank accounts.
  6. Would the SEC go it alone and schedule a full slate of all in conference games?  It’s only a guess, but our answer is yes.  Why?  Aren’t you listening?  Follow the money.  If people are watching the NFL Draft, the MMA, and South Korean baseball (yes they are) in record numbers, can you imagine the ratings for SEC slugfests?  America is craving live sports.
  7. Could the season start late?  Sure.  It will have to if summer workouts and especially fall camps cannot start on time.  The risk of injury due to a lack of conditioning is real.  The fallout would be quite negative.  Sure.  The virus might have a thing or two to say about the date as well.  Sure.  The reconfigured schedule possibility could include fewer, and later in the fall games as an option.
  8. Would colleges field teams to play if they don’t have on-campus classes?  This one seems highly doubtful.  The criticism would be fast, furious, and ongoing.  The academic elite crowd already looks down their nose and around their reading glasses at the double standard of academics and big-time sports.  You can’t decide to virtually teach for social distancing safety and actually have sweat, blood, and tears flying on a field, can you?  The optic would be a difficult one to sell.

Take limited fans in the stands for $150 to win $100.

Take major college football being played for $100 to win $125.

Disappointment From Coast to Coast, Part Five

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA Football regular season ink is dry, and the dye is cast.

So who are they?  Who are those teams that fell significantly short of meeting the expectations of their followers?  Disappointment can and does come from a few angles.  The program’s history builds in annual minimum standards.  A new, and maybe highly paid, coach can further that.  A good recruiting year or three can further that.  Some teams are bad but somewhat expected.  Some are disappointing and somewhat unexpected.

So far the disappointments by conference have been Washington in the PAC 12, Florida St. (ACC) Texas (BIG 12), and Texas A&M (SEC).  While selecting the last three of these teams we wrote the following.  Usually in year two of a new coaching staff’s run the ascent begins.  After all, you have two years of your own recruits.  You may have run off a few that you don’t want.  The transfer portal can accelerate your personnel transformation.  You have instilled the weight and nutritional training that you want to shape your team.  Your culture is, or better be, in place.  Your staff has had two springs and two falls to “coach em up.”  If it’s a big time program money/budgets are generous to accomplish all of the above.  

This series concludes today a bit later than intended, but a lot quicker than the nonsense in Washington DC. So, last but not least, to the BIG 10 we go.  And, once again, we find a team with a rather highly touted second year coach at the helm.

Most Disappointing

As a player, Scott Frost, now the Nebraska head coach, was coached by Stanford’s Bill Walsh, Nebraska’s Tom Osborne, the New York Jets’ Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick, and the Buccaneers’ Mike Tomlin and Jon Gruden.  That is one impressive list of teachers.

As a coach, Frost worked under Chip Kelly as first the WR coach, then took over the reins as  OC at Oregon.  He helped Marcus Mariotta guide the prolific offense and win the Heisman in 2014.  After the 2015 season he took over an 0-12 UCF program.  They immediately started to turn around.  In 2016 they finished 6-6 and in 2017 they won 13 and lost none, won the American Conference Championship and took down then ranked #7 Auburn in the Sugar Bowl.  That is one impressive turn around.

So optimism was high when the former Cornhusker player took the reins as it’s head coach in early 2018.   Nebraska finished 4-8 in 2018.  It just finished a 5-7 campaign this year that included a 2-4 record v Big 10 West Division foes, and 3-6 against the Big 10 in all.  Their wins came against South Alabama, Northern Illinois, Illinois, Northwestern and Maryland.    The better teams on their schedule scored early and often v the leaky D.  The best teams like Ohio St., Minnesota, and Wisconsin beat them by 41,27, and 16 respectively proving that the road to success is still in the distance.

Against similar competition ,PJ Fleck guided the Golden Gophers to a 9-0 record in year three of his turnaround before fading (1-2) some in November.  Fleck’s first two teams went 5-7, then 7-6.   Perhaps the third time will be the charm for Frost and the Cornhuskers as well.  His resume points to that possibility, and his paycheck demands it.

Nebraska is the most disappointing team in the BIG 10.

Also Considered

Northwestern finished in the cellar of the East Division with a 1-5 record against that side, 1-8 in conference, and 3-9 overall.  In 2018, Northwestern captured the Big Ten West division title for the first time in school history, finishing with an 8–1 mark in conference play.  They went on to beat Utah in the Holiday Bowl as well.  It was a stunning and hard drop from last season to this one for the Wildcats.

It was indeed disappointing, but at Nebraska it’s been too long since they tore down the goal posts.  More is expected.

 

 

 

 

Disappointment From Coast to Coast, Part Four

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA Football regular season ink is dry, and the dye is cast.

So who are they?  Who are those teams that fell significantly short of meeting the expectations of their followers?  Disappointment can and does come from a few angles.  The program’s history builds in annual minimum standards.  A new, and maybe highly paid, coach can further that.  A good recruiting year or three can further that.  Some teams are bad but somewhat expected.  Some are disappointing and somewhat unexpected.

In part two we selected Florida St. from the ACC and in part three we selected Texas from The BIG 12.  As an intro as to why we wrote the following on each. Usually in year two of a new coaching staff’s run the ascent begins.  After all, you have two years of your own recruits.  You may have run off a few that you don’t want.  The transfer portal can accelerate your personnel transformation.  You have instilled the weight and nutritional training that you want to shape your team.  Your culture is, or better be, in place.  Your staff has had two springs and two falls to “coach em up.”  If it’s a big time program money/budgets are generous to accomplish all of the above.  

That trend stretches to three straight teams as we head south.  This series’ timeliness also went south as impeachments and other Washington nonsense continued to get in the way. To the SEC we go.

Most Disappointing

When Texas A&M invested a fully guaranteed $75 million for the services of head coach Jimbo Fisher starting in 2018, did they think that they would finish 7-5 this year?  Likely not.  Did they think that they would only win games that they were favored in and lose all others?  Likely not.  Did they hope for the “quarterback whisperer” Jimbo to sprinkle magic dust on second year starter Kellon Mond?  Likely so.  They beat  SEC West foes Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Mississippi St. by 4,7, and 19 points respectively.  Their favorite cheer is WHOOOOP!   Those wins are WHOOOP tee doo.

Sure their schedule was brutal.  Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Clemson, and Alabama is a tough go.  But, in the SEC, except for the non conference Clemson game, that’s as common as fried chicken and bourbon on a fall Saturday.  A brutal schedule means that you aren’t as good as a lot of teams.  And, the Aggies proved that in 2019 despite an improving D.

The Texas A&M Aggies were the most disappointing team in the SEC.

Also Considered

BBR considered South Carolina and Mississippi St. but disappointment after a season is relative to realistic expectations going into it.  SC had a great road upset over Georgia in a game of defense, but lost five of their last six thereafter including a loss to Appalachian St.  Cross state rival Clemson is miles away and ahead of the SC program and hammered them 38-3 to close out a 4-8 campaign.

Mississippi St. lost three starters from their 2018 squad that were drafted in the top 27 picks of round one.  It’s hard to recruit to Starkville on a consistent basis and it’s nearly impossible to replace that type of talent.  The Bulldogs are bowl bound at 6-6, but their over/under win total in Vegas was 8-4.  That’s a two game disappointment.  Joe Moorhead replaced Dan Mullen.  At Mississippi St. that’s not an enviable position.

Putting the Eye Test to the Test.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

LSU. Ohio State.  Clemson.  Oklahoma.

Did the College Football Playoff Committee get it right?  The consensus by far is that the 13 member panel did.  More often than not, they do.

More often than not, the top four teams separate themselves once the regular season and the conference championships are played.  It seems so this year as well.

So, this year the committee chose the obvious because the obvious presented itself given the outcomes on the field of play.  But, in the weeks leading up to, and the one before the final weekend, the committee seeded the top 15 teams based on results, their own eye test, injuries, and an assumption here or there.

Would an old school BCS computer model have done the same?  Would Vegas choose the same?  We don’t know, but we wonder if both would have had nos. 4 through, say 12 ranked differently.

Two weeks ago THE was the “more complete team.”  Two weeks later “LSU has been playing better and getting healthier on D,” committee leader Rob Mullen said.  Seems like an eye test to us.

We wonder how Utah entered this weekend ranked #5 without a win over a single ranked team and one loss.  Baylor was in the same boat and ranked below them.  The difference?  Baylor lead Oklahoma 28-3 a month ago before surrendering 34-31.  Utah lost to USC 30-27.  USC was unranked.  Oklahoma is in the final four.  Eye test anyone?  Oregon’s win showed us that Utah was no where near the top 5.  If Baylor beat Oklahoma and Utah won would Baylor have jumped Utah?  If Oklahoma beat Baylor and Utah beat Oregon would Oklahoma have jumped Utah? Maybe.  Oregon finished ahead of Baylor, so we doubt the Bears would have.

We wonder how a three loss Wisconsin team (losers to Illinois and THE in the regular season, and THE in the conf championship) was and is ranked 8th while several two loss teams, most notably Alabama (ranked 13th after falling one spot without playing last weekend) are ranked well below.  Alabama lost by five to LSU and three on a boinked off of the upright field goal to Auburn.  Ah, the committee all but said “the loss of the QB (Tua T) hurt Bama a bit.”  Bama scored 41 v #1 LSU and 45 v #12 Auburn.  The O wasn’t Bama’s problem before nor after the injury.  The D was.  Eye test anyone?

We could go on, and on.  But the point is, why do we have humans deciding this?  Haven’t advanced metrics, models, AI, and computers passed up the human eye in determining who is who?  The BCS computer model was devised to do just that.  But humans decided that the computer model didn’t pass their eye test.  The very thing that model was designed to do- take away the eye test, got taken away by the eye test.

If you support a chip in the nose of the football to determine down and distance and fumble or not, why not a tech help for the committee?  If you yell at the screen watching umps miss balls for strikes and strikes for balls v. the superimposed zone on the screen why not a tech help to the committee?  We could go on and on.

The committee got the final four right because the teams separated perfectly on the final weekend.  If it came down differently and went to an eye test, would the outcome have been different?  And, would it have been correct?

Vegas would favor several lower ranked teams in the final 15, and in some cases by double digits, over several higher ranked teams.  The NFL would take Alabama’s starting 22 over any other roster in the NCAA, yet the committee sees them as the 13th best.

For now everyone is happy, except fans of THE.  Their eye test sees scarlet and gray as a clear no. 1 over purple and the yellow that LSU calls gold.

And, that makes the point.  The computer doesn’t see color.

 

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week 15

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

And here come the NCAA Conference Championship games.  Whew.  That was quick.  Anyone having withdrawals before it’s even over?

After a week in NOLA Abby is having a few withdrawals of her own of a different kind.  But, the elixir proved to be mixed just like a fine hand crafted cocktail. It got the job done.

Her back to back weeks of picks from the road make you want one more round in the worst way.  Week 13’s won/loss record was 5-1, while week 14 was 4-1.  That brings her season long record to a fine 39-34. Woof. The way more important bones wagered took home ten of eleven then seven of eight.  Therefore, Abby has taken 78 of them from Vegas while only paying 55.  That is a degenerate gambler good win percentage of 58.6%  Woof!  Woof!  Meanwhile the hunch bet split the last two weeks and stands on all four legs at 10-5.  Woof!  Woof!  Woof!

Enough with the barking already.  It’s time to earn some more pats on the head.

Oregon + 7 v Utah –  The Utes are the best team no one has seen this year.  Oregon is the first ranked team, when the game is played, the Utes will play this year.  Utes win, Ducks cover.  One bone.

Baylor v Oklahoma -9 – The Bears are the second best team no one has seen play this year.  They led Oklahoma by 25 at one point in their first meeting.  Not this time. The Sooners make a statement by hanging half a hundo on Baylor to give the Playoff Committee something to think about.  Two Bones.

UAB +7 1/2 v FAU – Is Lane Kiffin’s honeymoon in south Florida over?  Rumors swirl about new girlfriends (head coaching jobs at Arkansas) every year about this time.  UAB dances with the one they brought and wins straight up.  One bone.

Georgia v LSU over 54 1/2 – Most of the talk pregame is about how good Georgia’s D is.  The rest of the talk is about how Georgia is either hurt or suspended at the skill positions.  It’s a zig when others zag.  Expect Georgia to put up 20 plus and LSU to put up 30 plus, just enough to cover on a fast track in the Mercedes Benz Georgia Dome.  Two bones.

Cincinnati v Memphis under 57 1/2 –  These two met last week and scored 58 total points.  Meeting in back to back weeks we like the under as Abby assumes (you know what happens when you assume?) the two D’s will learn from the film more than the two O’s will change what they do.  One bone.

We make no hunch bet this week.  But we do have a hunch.  On a hunch expect Oklahoma (if Georgia loses) to jump Utah and gain the #4 seed.

Woof, again!

P.S.  Abby howls at the moon in amazement at how the playoff committee ranks Alabama as low as they do.

 

Disappointment From Coast to Coast, Part Three

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA Football regular season ink is dry, and the dye is cast.

So who are they?  Who are those teams that fell significantly short of meeting the expectations of their followers?  Disappointment can and does come from a few angles.  The program’s history builds in annual minimum standards.  A new, and maybe highly paid, coach can further that.  A good recruiting year or three can further that.  Some teams are bad but somewhat expected.  Some are disappointing and somewhat unexpected.

In part two we selected Florida St. from the ACC.  As an intro as to why we wrote the following. Usually in year two of a new coaching staff’s run the ascent begins.  After all, you have two years of your own recruits.  You may have run off a few that you don’t want.  The transfer portal can accelerate your personnel transformation.  You have instilled the weight and nutritional training that you want to shape your team.  Your culture is, or better be, in place.  Your staff has had two springs and two falls to “coach em up.”  If it’s a big time program money/budgets are generous to accomplish all of the above.

We sense a pattern.  Today we examine the BIG 12.

 

BIG 12

Most Disappointing

Much like Willie Taggert at Florida St., year two for Tom Herman and company at the University of Texas was a disappointment.  Though, year two at Texas wasn’t a disaster like it was in Seminole country.  But, shouldn’t the flagship school in the third largest state in the union be better, even much better?  Texas finished 7-5 overall.  Their 5-4 in conference record was equal to three other schools and “good enough” to tie for third best in the BIG 12.  Who had the same in conference record?  Oklahoma St., Kansas St., and Iowa St. did.  See what we mean?  “Good enough” isn’t good enough.

The standard for years in the ACC has been Clemson.  Florida St. aspires to get back to that.  The standard for many, many years in the Big 12 has been Oklahoma.  It should be Texas and Oklahoma, but it isn’t.  Aspirational means you aren’t there.

But shouldn’t it take more than a couple of years to turn around a Texas program that suffered from past years of poor recruiting and poor coaching/management?  Ask Baylor.  In the same conference, with much the same schedule, Baylor went from 1-11 to 11-1 in those same two years.  Oh, and Baylor popped Texas 24-10 along the way in doing so.

Tom Herman was a (or the) hot name in coaching two years ago as he used LSU to get more money out of UT.  Now he needs to earn it.  Texas beat no one on their schedule this year that Vegas viewed as the favorite in the game.  All of this occurred after a ten win season in 2018 and with a returning, accomplished QB. That’s underachieving.  That’s disappointing.

Herman just fired his OC and DC.  Wasn’t Herman the offensive guru at THE OSU and Houston?  If so, what happened at UT?  If not, did he make a hiring mistake or three along the way?  It says here that he only has 12 more regular season games to figure that out.  There’s another team in Texas that UT doesn’t like getting more pub than them.  It’s Texas A&M.  They have a year two coach in Jimbo Fisher.  If ole Jimbo outshines Tom Herman in year three, Texas will headbutt Herman much like Herman did a helmeted player in game 12 last week.

The University of Texas is the runaway winner as the most disappointing team in the BIG 12.

Also Considered

TCU went 3-6 in conference and 5-7 overall this year.  Gary Patterson is 118-65 overall in 18 seasons leading the Horned Frogs.

TCU needed to replace a some talent from 2018 (particularly on D), some of which now plays on Sunday.  They also needed a new QB.  But a program run for 18 years by the same leader clearly needs to plan against and prepare for just that.

TCU’s bar is lower than Texas’ bar.  However,  Patterson himself has raised it.  Gary Patterson is 118-65 overall in 18 seasons leading the Horned Frogs.  In 2017, TCU and Coach Patterson reached their tenth 11-win season since Patterson began coaching for the program. That is the fourth most 11 win seasons since 2001 in all of college football.

In 2018 the program finished 7-6.  Therefore, the 5-7 campaign this year is underwhelming, and now qualifies as a three year slide.

 

Disappointment From Coast to Coast, Part Two

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA Football regular season ink is dry, and the dye is mostly cast.

For many teams the season’s promise was bright as summer turned to fall.  Now, as fall turns to winter, that promise has turned darker than late afternoon post the change in daylight savings time.  You set you clocks back while some team’s performance set their programs back.

So who are they?  Who are those teams that fell significantly short of meeting the expectations of their followers?  Disappointment can and does come from a few angles.  The program’s history builds in annual minimum standards.  A new, and maybe highly paid, coach can further that.  A good recruiting year or three can further that.  Some teams are bad but somewhat expected.  Some are disappointing and somewhat unexpected.

In part one we selected Washington out of the PAC 12 as the most disappointing.  Evidently, head coach Chris Petersen was disappointed as well.  He stepped down yesterday citing a need to “recharge.”  Today we continue with part two of our series scanning each of the Power 5 conferences to select the most disappointing performance.

 

ACC

Most Disappointing

Usually in year two of a new coaching staff’s run the ascent begins.  After all, you have two years of your own recruits.  You may have run off a few that you don’t want.  The transfer portal can accelerate your personnel transformation.  You have instilled the weight and nutritional training that you want to shape your team.  Your culture is, or better be, in place.  Your staff has had two springs and two falls to “coach em up.”  If it’s a big time program money/budgets are generous to accomplish all of the above.

“Usually” is the key word.  For Florida St. the 2018 and first half of the 2019 season was all the boosters, alumni, AD, and school administration needed to see “usually” would not turn into their reality.  Willie Taggert, nine games into year two and 21 games in in total was fired.  Several losses in 2019 were downright embarrassing.  A season opening home loss to Boise St. was followed by a one point win over Louisiana Monroe.  Clemson and Miami both worked FSU over.   Discipline lacked and class attendance declined. And, then it was over.

Taggert, 43, had ascended rapidly in the head coaching world.  Western Kentucky’s success lead to USF’s turnaround which led to a major jump to the helm at Oregon.  One year in at Oregon, Taggert jumped ship to coach the Seminoles.

Florida St. missed the bowl season in 2018 (the first time since 1981), and won six and lost six in 2019.  That’s only good enough for a tie for fourth in the Atlantic side of the ACC. They also will be buying out Coach Taggert for a smooth 20 million per the contract that he didn’t finally sign, but will expect to collect from.  Taggert finished 9-12 in his 1 3/4 years there. His ACC record was a miserable 6-9 in a conference that isn’t from top to bottom that feared.  The team was 4-5 when he was let go.

Clemson is the standard that FSU aspires to compete with.  When you finish behind Louisville and Wake Forest, and tied with Boston College, Clemson is more than a few hydration bottles ahead of you.

Florida St. is easily the most disappointing team in the ACC.

Also Considered

FSU took the prize and second place wasn’t close.  However, the continued noise emanating from South Beach isn’t due to partying about the Miami Hurricanes football team.  They finished 6-6 as well.  They began 2018 ranked 3rd in the U.S.  They end 2019 as an afterthought in the ACC.  A parade of coaches have come and gone since that program has been relevant on the national stage.

Syracuse, finishing 5-7, also underwhelmed.  The Orangemen were upstarts for two straight years registering some nice upsets along the way.  This year was a step backwards.

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

You deserve your nuggets today.  Last week the BBR Staff and it’s degenerate gambler and mascot Abby were on assignment in the greater south Louisiana area.  They covered LSU and the New Orleans Saints live.   They also covered bets.  But most of all, they watched more than wrote.  It’s now  time to write more on Al Gore’s internet with pearls of wisdom in the form of Ten Piece Nuggets below.  Crunch away.

  1.  The new AP College Top 25 is out.  We know, we know, the playoff rankings are more important.  But, you cannot wait till Wednesday AM for nuggets, you need them now.  It feels like the top 3 have separated themselves a bit.  LSU, THE Ohio State U, and Clemson are undefeated, ranked 1,2, and 3 and headed to their respective conference championship games as moderate to big favorites.  LSU hammered Texas A&M and dumbfounded Jimbo Fisher.  THE rolled over Michigan and dumbfounded Jim Harbaugh.  Clemson worked South Carolina and dumbfounded Will Muschamp.
  2. THE is #1 in the playoff ranks and did nothing to lose any ground.  The chase for the fourth spot is currently where the action is.  Georgia currently holds the #4 spot.  But, but, but.  Nipping on the heels of the Bulldogs are one loss Utah, one loss Oklahoma, and one loss Baylor.
  3. One loss #5 Utah meets two loss and #13 ranked Oregon in the PAC 12 championship this weekend.  Is a win and a Ga. loss enough to get them to the final four?  Sure.   But what if they do so, Ga. losses, and one loss #6 Oklahoma dispatches #8 Baylor?  What if Baylor dispatches Oklahoma?
  4. And, what if Ga beats LSU?  Does LSU hold onto the fourth spot as the best one loss team?  BBR thinks the following.  If Ga wins they are in.  IF Ga. loses they are out.  If Ga losses, a Utes win gets them in.  A Ga loss and a Ute loss opens the door wide for the Big 12 winner (Baylor/Okla) to charge through.
  5. Of course a THE loss or a Clemson loss creates additional chaos.  The early Vegas look at that possibility is out.  Vegas seems to think that isn’t possible.  THE is favored by a bullish 17 over # 10 Wisconsin in the BIG 10 Championship Game.  Clemson is favored by a whopping 28 over Virginia in the ACC Championship Game.
  6. LSU opened a 5 point favorite over Georgia, but as of this AM it’s climbed to 7.  Utah is the 6 1/2 point choice over Oregon.  Oklahoma is a 9 point pick over Baylor.
  7. Alabama, the every year participant since the new four team playoff format began, will have to watch the proceedings this year.  A young, injured, and leaky defense gave up 48 to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. And as a tying field goal bounced off of the left upright with two minutes to go, Bama’s playoff chances got bounced as well.
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    It was very un Saban like finish to a very un Saban like year.  He yelled at everyone all game.  Of course, he does that regardless of the score and the opponent.  Bama dropped to #9 with it’s second SEC loss .  Auburn moved up from #16 to #11 with the win.

  8.  Minnesota hosted game day Saturday morning.   Everyone wanted to “Row the Boat.”  Of course the snow and cold might have iced over any lake if they tried.  They then went out in said cold and snow and tried to beat Wisconsin.  Winner goes to the BIG 10 Championship Game.  Loser is out in the cold.  Whisky took care of their business dispatching the upstart Golden Gophers 38-17.  Minnie was ranked as high as #7 two weeks back.  They fell to #15.  It’s going to be another cold winter in Minnie.
  9. Some coaches were out in the cold before their season ended.  Some more were out as soon as their seasons ended this Saturday.  Barry Odom had four years to turn around Mizzo in the SEC East.  He didn’t.  Charlie Strong didn’t give any life to USF and was terminated.   BC parted ways with Steve Addazio after seven years.  Frank Wilson succeeded Larry Coker at UTSA but did not succeed in three seasons.
  10. And, finally, Matt Luke got booted from Ole Miss after his kicker booted an extra point try wide in a one point Egg Bowl loss to in state rival Moo St.   If you haven’t seen why the extra point attempt was from farther than usual, you can here.  If you scroll down the Russian announcers add their two rubles as well.  And it’s well worth it.  At press time there was no word on if Adam Schiff wants to subpoena them to testify in the impeachment inquiry.

You’ve had 4 days off.  Get back to it already.