NCAA F

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Ten

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As Halloween gives way to All Saints Day it’s spooky, despite some up and down weeks, how close to flat line Abby’s season to date results have been.  It’s tricky, but there’s been one treat.  Her hunch bet rang the door bell again and the candy flows.

For the season that bet is carving up Vegas like a pumpkin.  It’s 8 up and only 2 down.  The other bets are 21 up and 24 down, while the bones wagered are exactly even with 42 up and 42 down.

Lots of teams took this weekend off, but Abby never sleeps.  But, she is tired of the kids knocking on the front door.  The bobbing for apples begins below.

Kansas St v. Kansas +6 —  The Wildcats come off of a huge upset over Oklahoma while the Jayhawks upset the Red Raiders.  Abby thinks Red Raiders sounds insensitive these days, but we digress.  Les Miles has his team playing well.   Abby likes the six at home.  Two bones.

TCU v. Oklahoma St -3 — TCU comes off of a nice home win v. Texas.  Oklahoma St. comes home after a nice road win v. Iowa St.  Abby’s favorite movie is A Dog’s Way Home.  How bout dem Cowboy’s?  One bone.

Miami v. Florida St. -3 —  The Seminoles haven’t beaten a good team all year.  Miami isn’t a good team.  Abby thinks Seminoles sounds insensitive these days, but we digress.  Willie Taggart needs this one in the worst way.  The Noles cover late.  One bone.

Oregon v. USC + 4 1/2  and under 62—  Oregon needs to win out to make playoff noise.  This one won’t be easy, but we think they find a way to win but not cover in a game that actually has some West Coast defense.  One bone to win three bones.

Georgia -6 v. Florida —  Abby’s admittedly been back and forth on this game all week.  She is partial to Bulldogs and doesn’t like Gators.  But she bets with her head not her heart.  The six points seem like the side to be on in what seems like a coin flip game. But, she’s going to zig when others zag. Two bones.

The over/under points total in the Largest Outdoor (formerly known as Cocktail) Party is 45.  It seems low.  Abby thinks the word cocktail wasn’t insensitive but we digress.  She also thinks that when the line is yelling over she’ll take the under on a hunch.

Don’t you hate those cheap candy corns?

 

Walk the Walk and Talk the Talk, Part 2

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It seems like a week ago, but it wasn’t.  Some nine weeks ago we wrote the following.

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  

We’ll list the win total, it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  

And, in short order we took Kansas over, Oregon over, Kentucky under, Mississippi St. under, and Texas A&M over.  Yesterday we updated the first 3 of our 5 picks.  Today, with a mere five weeks left to the regular season we decided (actually a favorite reader of ours suggested yesterday) to review the final 2.   After all if you are going to talk the talk, you better be prepared to walk the walk.

2.  Mississippi St. under 8 wins, bet $155 to win $100, current record 3-5

– After a 3-1 start against two cupcakes and Kentucky, the Bulldogs hit the proverbial wall.  They have lost four in a row as the schedule stiffened.

– Head Coach Joe Moorhead has to be scratching his head.  And, Bulldog alumni must be scratching theirs as well.  And, the mascot must be scratching his………  Dan Mullen took this program to high points not seen around StarkVegas in many moons.  Moorhead is in a tough spot following that act.  The SEC West is tough.  Recruiting to Starkville is tougher.

– Worst outcome.  There is no worst case for the bet unless a tornado hits Starkville (which could cause improvements actually)and cancels a game or a portion thereof nullifying the bet.

– Best outcome.  State finishes all four contests with a win or a loss.  The bet is already a win as the win total maxes out at seven even if State runs the tables.

– Outlook.  With a road trip to Arkansas, a layup (Abilene Christian University-seriously?), a loss to Bama, and an Egg Bowl battle with Ole Miss looming, we smell rotten eggs at 2-2.  A 5-7 record is a win for BBR and a big step back for Moorhead and staff.

– Prediction.  Moorhead gets one more year to right the ship, and the bet has already won $100.

1.Texas A&M over 7 1/2 wins, bet $120 to win $100, current record 5-3

– With arguably the toughest schedule in the nation A&M has won the games they were favored in and lost those that they were underdogs.

– In year two of his iron clad, ten year contract HC Jimbo Fisher, aka the QB whisperer, hasn’t whispered the right sweet nothings into the ear of second year starting QB Kellon Mond.  Hence, the hoped for leap forward has been sideways.

Worst Outcome.  A&M continues to win the winnable ones and lose the expected ones and the bet loses by 1/2 game as they finish 7-5.

Best Outcome.  The Aggies upset either Georgia or LSU on the road and win the easier remaining home games and they finish 8-4.

Outlook.  This one is tough.  We thought that they would beat Auburn which would have gotten the likely record to 8-4, but they didn’t.  SC beat Georgia in Athens two weeks ago.  Can it happen again?  Sure.  If Florida beats Georgia this weekend, thereby knocking Georgia out of the playoff picture, we’ll then predict an Aggie late season win.  If Georgia has to beat the Aggies to get to ATL for the SEC Championship game we think they will hold serve between the hedges.

Prediction.  We’ve stuck our neck out this far, why not once more?  Aggies beat UTSA and SC at home and Georgia there.  LSU beats A&M to close the season.  Aggies go 8-4 and the bet wins $100.

If our latest predictions hold true a 4-1 record and a nice payoff await.  Worst case we are probably looking at 3-2 and a positive payoff.

One prediction we can safely make is that we will be back next year with more season long predictions v. the win total.  The bet never fails to entertain, and it lasts all season long.  Well it does unless you’re Joe Moorhead, thankfully.

 

 

 

Walk the Walk and Talk the Talk

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It seems like a week ago, but it wasn’t.  Some nine weeks ago we wrote the following.

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most. 

And, in short order we took Kansas over, Oregon over, Kentucky under, Mississippi St. under, and Texas A&M over.  Today, with a mere five weeks left to the regular season we decided (actually a favorite reader of ours suggested) to review the first 3 of our 5 picks.   After all if you are going to talk the talk, you better be prepared to walk the walk. Tomorrow we conclude with the final two.

5.  Kansas over 3 wins, bet $100 to win $130, current record 3-5

–  The Jayhawks lost in week 2 to Coastal Carolina.  Jeez.  The bet would be a winner in just eight weeks if they would have taken care of a non FBS opponent at home.  We repeat, “at home.”

–  Head Coach Les Miles fired his OC on 10/6.  He announced that Brent Dearmon had been promoted to the role in place of Les Koenning, who was dismissed from the program. Koenning was part of Miles’ initial Kansas staff this offseason.  The results were immediately positive.  They put 48 on Texas and 37 on Texas Tech in the last two weeks.

– Worst outcome.  Worst case the bet pushes (no money is lost nor won) as they have three wins already.

– Best outcome.  We win the bet with one more victory with four games left.

– Outlook.  With Kansas St., Iowa St., Oklahoma St., and Baylor left the road is uphill.  They’ll likely be underdogs by double digits in all four contests.

– Prediction.  Ole Les Miles, aka The Mad Hatter, pulls one more Jayhawk win out of his hat.  The bet wins $130.

4.  Oregon over 9 wins, bet $100 to win $105, current record 7-1

– The Ducks led until the last seven seconds in the season opener v. Auburn.  It is their lone loss to date.

– The Ducks are in the meat of their schedule but can rely on an above average defense for once in addition to their always productive O.  The road win at Washington two weeks ago was helpful.  They have their sites set on winning out to get into the playoff conversation. That’s good for the wager.

– Worst outcome.  If the Ducks take on water and paddle to a 1-3 or 0-4 finish the bet could still tank.

– Best outcome.  A 3-1 or 4-0 finish makes the ticket a winner.

– Outlook.  Oregon finishes with at USC, home Arizona, at Arizona St, and home Oregon St.  They are favored by 4 1/2 v USC this week.  It’s the toughest game left for them, though an Arizona St. night road battle could be troublesome.  The two home games are wins if they come to play.  Mario Cristobal has had them ready for every game so far.

– Prediction.  A loss to USC and three wins to close out the season makes their record 10-2.   The bet wins $105.

3.  Kentucky under 6 1/2 wins, bet $100 to win $100, current record 4-4

– The Wildcats up and down season was expected as a program like this would struggle to replace what Bennie Snell and Josh Allen brought to the team last year.

– A bad effort and loss to Miss St. was offset by a put down of Missouri this past weekend 29-7.

– Worst outcome.  With three games remaining at home and all four games winnable, the bet crashes and burns.

– Best outcome.  An improving Tennessee team follows up last week’s win with another this week in Kentucky and Vandy at home knocks them off the week thereafter.  That puts them at 6-6 at best.

– Outlook.  After the two games above they host TN-Martin and Louisville.  TN Martin is a win and if they need a win over in state rival Louisville at home to get bowl eligible they might just show their teeth.

– Prediction. – TN Martin gives them 5 wins.  Can they win two of three from Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Louisville?  The Wildcats O struggles to score against good defenses, but we only see one decent D on this four game dance card.  It says here that they win three of the last four to finish 7-5, but we are still quite hopeful that they could finish 6-6.  The bet loses $100.

Tomorrow we’ll review the final two, Mississippi St. under and Texas A&M over.

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Time for your nuggets.   Time for a diet too.   There were too many boudain balls consumed this weekend by the staff covering the LSU-Auburn game live.  Grilled below are the tasty, but healthy treats with a side of some AP Top 25 NCAA football teams and their performance or lack thereof.

  1.  There is a new #1.  LSU beat it’s third top 10 opponent this season on Saturday.  Auburn fought hard, but came up short on a soaked field Saturday in BR.  For the first time this year the D carried LSU’s O.  The next “Game of the Century,” a term used far too often obviously, takes place in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 9.  LSU travels to Bama for a #1 v. #2. throwdown.  And throw they will.  It’s also a Tua v. Burrow throwdown.   It has a Heisman making moment opportunity written all over it.
  2. THE and Clemson remain entrenched at #3 and #4.  One or both will benefit from the Game of the Century loser’s drop.  Though, the first playoff poll comes out a week from today.  Maybe the committee will see the on field performances differently that the AP writers?  THE still has Penn St. and Michigan on their dance card.  Clemson has a bunch wallflowers.
  3. Poof!  There went Oklahoma.  Undefeated and #5 last week is old news now as Kansas St. put 48 on the Okie D winning 48-41 in a game that wasn’t actually 7 points close.  Penn St. rose one to #5.  You aren’t elite if you cannot play D.
  4. Florida is #6 and can take control of the SEC East this week as it’s one loss team travels to Jacksonville to meet one loss # 8 Georgia.  The World’s Largest Outdoor Party, formerly known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,  will eliminate one team from playoff possibilities and elevate the other.  Speaking of eliminate, did eliminating the word “cocktail” from the moniker reduce the alcohol consumption?  We think not.  But it is PC.
  5.  Here comes the PAC 12.  A week ago Oregon and Utah were #11 and #12.  A week later they have risen to #7 and #9.  Both one loss teams keep stacking up solid victories.  And this coming weekend they’ll have a chance to continue that.  Oregon beat Washington St, always a pesky opponent for them.  Utah shut the door on the California Bears 35-0.  Their objective is to keep winning and meet in the PAC 12 Championship, take a look at the carnage around them, and argue that they deserve a Power Five Conference Champion shot at the final 4.  It’s possible with the collisions that will take place between teams currently ranked higher.
  6.  Oklahoma dropped 5 spots to #10, and Auburn dropped but two to #11 with the above mentioned losses.  Notre Dame dropped from #8 to #16 after Khaki Boy and the Wolverines pounded them in Ann Arbor.  The next time that we need to listen to ND inclusion in the playoff conversation will be 2020 at best.
  7. Two weeks ago undefeated Wisconsin was sitting pretty at #5.  Two weeks and two ugly losses later, the most recent a 38-7 trouncing by THE, Whisky checks in at #18.
  8.  Their losses have opened the door for someone to walk through from the west side of the BIG 10 to be a double digit dog to either THE or Penn St. in that conference championship tussle.  Golden Gophers any one?  Yep.  The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 8-0 and stand at unlucky #13.  Minnie has played exactly zero ranked opponents to date.  But, they’ve beaten everyone that they have played.  With Penn St., Iowa, and Wisconsin dead ahead for Minnie, beating everyone that they have yet to play will be a tall task.
  9.  Baylor and SMU have also beaten everyone that they have played.  They are both 8-0 and sit at #12 and #18 respectively.  Baylor has a path as Texas and Oklahoma loom.  Beat them both and shout your name loudly.  Maybe the playoff committee will hear you.  SMU really doesn’t.  Speaking of Texas, they fell all of the way out of the top 25 with a 37-27 loss to TCU.  Like Oklahoma, Texas is soft on D.
  10. Some early lines are out.  Oregon travels to USC and is a 4 1/2 point pick.  Utah travels to Washington and is a 2 point fav.  The PAC 12 gets picture gets much clearer come midnight Saturday EST.  Also, after a few cocktails in Jacksonville, Georgia will be a four point favorite over Florida.

It looks like a salad week to me.

..

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Nine

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Vegas giveth.  Vegas taketh.

We should have known better.  Abby’s nose was warm to the touch last week.  She felt like a dog.   But she insisted that she had a hunch about the games and the lines.  It turns out that she was right on her hunch bet again and wrong on most all else.

For the season she has won 19 games and lost 21.  More importantly she has collected 38 bones and lost 37.  If you haven’t been on her hunch bet after a 9-2 season last year, you should be on it this year.  It’s now 7 wins against only 2 losses.  Bow wow!

Abby’s nose is cool bordering on cold and so is the fall football weather.   Abby’s chasing winners this week, no more parked cars.

Mississippi St v. Texas A&M -10 1/2 —  In a marron and white v. maroon and white game Abby likes the home unis.  A&M has more to play for.  Moo St. looks like it might be closing down shop for a long winter.  Two bones.

Indiana v. Nebraska -2 1/2 —  In a red and white v. red and white game Abby likes the home unis.  As the morning frost melts Scott Frost’s tenure at Lincoln needs to heat up.  Indiana is a surprising 5-2, but Big Red rolls by 14.  Two bones.

Texas -1 1/2 v. TCU  —  Tom Herman’s tenure at Texas needs to warm up, too.  And, Texas needs a defense.  It took 50 points and a last second field goal for them to dispatch Kansas.  Jeez.  Abby thinks Herman gets them going this week, and the Burnt Orange rolls by 14.  Two bones.

Texas Tech v. Kansas +3 1/2 —  Les Miles fired his previous OC three games in after they scored all of seven on Costal Carolina.  The result a few weeks later?  They put 48 on Texas last week.  If only he did the same at LSU a few years back.  Jeez.  Jayhawks win this one straight up.  Two bones.

California +21 1/2 v. Utah —  Abby continues to contend that no one in the PAC 12 should be favored over anyone else by 14 much less 21 and change.  This seems like a lot of points in what should be a low scoring game.  One bone.

On a hunch take Washington St. plus 14 1/2 at Oregon.  Abby continues to contend that no one in the PAC 12 should be favored over anyone else by 14.   Washington St. usually plays the Ducks pretty closely.   Maybe the Cougars can lose a close shootout after Oregon’s big road win over Washington a week ago.

Woof.

Raising the Bar

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Setting goals is a tricky business.  Set them too high and you’ll disappoint yourself and those that bought into the false hope.  Set them too low and achieving them isn’t really a success nor a motivator.   Setting goals for sport teams is equally tricky for the exact same reasons.  Fan support and donor support hang in the balance.

Let’s use a Gamecock as a Guinea pig for an example.  What is a realistic yearly goal for Head Coach Will Muschamp and his South Carolina football team?

SC competes in the SEC East.  They play Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt each year in the east.  They have Texas A&M from the west as their designated rivalry yearly game and rotate among Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St,, Ole Miss, and Arkansas as their other west opponent.  You have four SEC games at home, and four on the road each year.   They select/control who their four out of conference opponents are and where they play those games.   One choice that they always make is Clemson.  The instate rivalry “Palmetto Bowl” is 115 games old and counting.

It should be noted that this year’s schedule rotated in the west to a tussle with Alabama.  All of the above makes one wince.  Survive that gauntlet and the reward is the SEC Championship Game against the best from the west and a to be determined bowl game.  SC joined the SEC in 1970.  A championship still escapes them.

Ready to set the goal to keep everyone moving in the same direction to achieve it?  Good luck.  Good luck unless some realism, if not publicly stated, is at least privately understood.

After being impatient in latter part of the 20th Century,  SC has been patient in the 21st.  Lou Holtz in 2000 gave way to Steve Spurrier in 2005, who retired in 2015.  Enter volatile Will Muschamp.  Four years later SC competes hard on the field.  Their upset of Georgia in Athens two weeks ago proves that.  The report card for Holtz was a 45% winning percentage turning around a downtrodden program in four years, 63% under the ole ball coach, and 55% for Muschamp’s tenure.

Is Oklahoma St. or Texas Tech the SC of the BIG 12?  Is Michigan St. or Minnesota the SC of the BIG 10.  Is Washington St. or California the SC of the PAC 12?  It seems so.  So do you accept the bar and try to shimmy over it more than not?  Or do you raise the bar and attempt to do what you haven’t done in a long, long time or even forever?

How do you move up to that higher bar?  Money, cheat, culture, system?

Okie St. chose the money route thanks to T. Boone Pickens.  Mike Gundy’s team has had a few moments, but no breakthrough yet.  Tillman Fertitta is pouring money into Houston to try the same from a lower bar.

Ole Miss chose the dishonest route.  Hugh Freeze’s college coaching career is on ice because of it, and Ole Miss is fighting to stay out of the cellar in the SEC West.

Mike Leach brought his fun and gun system and mentality to Wash St.  It’s been fun, but it too hasn’t broken through.

Dabo Swinney changed the culture and expectations at Clemson though they had a more storied past to recapture the magic v. establish it.

We think that a game Muschamp is going the culture route hoping recruiting and money will follow.  His 3-4 record season to date matches his recruiting rankings relative to his competition thus far.  A season ending date with Clemson still looms.  Jeez.

There’s much satisfaction and financial reward for whomever can sustainably break through to challenge the big boys.

It’s an admirable goal.  Is it realistic?

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s Monday and it’s time to take a look at the NCAA football  and it’s AP Top 25.  Week eight is in the books, and we cook up ten nuggets to review it.

  1.  Alabama remains entrenched at #1.  They won the home game against Tennessee 35-13, and lost a QB in the process.  Tua Tagovailoa underwent surgery for a high ankle sprain yesterday and is expected to be back for the early November showdown with LSU, who remains at #2 after a 36-13 win at Mississippi St.
  2.  Clemson’s won 45-10 over Louisville on the field.  But, off of the field they lost one place in the polls.  They are now #4 after Dabo Swinney told reporters that his sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence had four really bad plays in the game.  Their loss was THE Ohio St University’s gain as THE climbed to three.  THE beat Northwestern all sixty minutes long in a 52-3 Friday night blowout.
  3. Oklahoma #5 and Penn St #6 round out the top six teams all with 7-0 records.  Oklahoma stayed at #5 while Penn St jumped into the spot formerly occupied by fellow Big 10 school Wisconsin.  Whisky looked hungover all Saturday afternoon losing to lowly Illinois 24-23.  James McCourt kicked a 39-yard field as time expired and Illinois pulled off the biggest upset of the college football season bar none.  The Badgers dropped a steep seven spots to #13.  Their playoff dreams are now a headache and need two aspirin.  Penn St jumped to a 21-0 lead at home over Michigan then held on to win 28-21.  Jim Harbaugh’s team suffered another loss to a big time team in a Big Ten game in a big time moment.  He decided to question the officiating. “It’ll be interesting to compare some of the different scenarios in the game, in terms of calls,” Harbaugh said.  Perhaps a look in the mirror would be interesting as well.
  4. Florida and Notre Dame begin the parade of 6-1 clubs at #7 and # 8 respectively.  Florida hoped over ND moving from 9 to 7 a week after their first loss as they fought off a game South Carolina Gamecocks team in the rain in SC.  Will Muschamp had a few choice words for a few refs after a few bad calls and non calls post game.  He said he had nothing more to say about it.  Then, almost under his breath he uttered “gutless” describing the refs decision to flag him for unsportsmanlike conduct.    His wallet might be a few “dollars less” after the NCAA takes a look.  ND was idle before they travel to Michigan this week.
  5. Auburn jumped two spots back into the top ten at #9 after running over Arkansas 51-10.  Arkansas is a bad football team.  Their fake punt, which you can see here, could be the worst designed special teams play, well, ever.  The Auburn Tigers travel to Baton Rouge for a top ten showdown/throwdown with the LSU Tigers Saturday.
  6.  Georgia wore down Kentucky 21-0 in the mud and rain in Athens a week after they were upset by SC.  Georgia threw for a measly 35 yards all game on just 12 attempts.  Kentucky one upped that, or one downed that, throwing for a measly 17 yards on 18 attempts.  If you missed the game you don’t have to brag about it.
  7. Oregon and Utah rep the PAC 12 and are ranked #11 and #12.  Oregon’s season opening, last seven seconds loss to Auburn is deep in the rear view mirror now.  The Ducks went to Washington and escaped with a fine 35-31 win.  They’ll need help to climb back into any playoff discussion.  But with only two road games left of the five remaining, at USC and at #24 Arizona St., they do have an outside shot as others ahead of them square off.
  8.  Baylor says hello, remaining undefeated after an impressive road win at Oklahoma St. 45-21.  The Bears are 7-0 and have Texas and Oklahoma visiting Waco in mid November.  Baylor moved up four spots from 18 to 14.
  9. SMU 7-0, Minnesota 7-0, and Appalachian St. 6-0 round out the undefeated teams at #16, #17, and #21 respectively.  Much like Rodney Dangerfield it seems they get no respect.  Boise St. was undefeated but got bounced at BYU by the Cougars.  Boise St fell from 14 all the way down to 22.
  10. A few early lines are out.  THE Ohio St. U is a home 14 point favorite over Wisconsin.  LSU is a home 12 1/2 point favorite over Auburn.  Michigan is a surprising home 2 1/2 point favorite over the Fighting Irish.

Don’t leave your plate in the sink.  Put it in the dish washer please.

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 8

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby began the second half of the NCAA football season more like a lion roaring than a dog barking last week.  Vegas called and offered her a comped dog suite this week complete with a mani and pedi bar, lap pool, and a dog run in hopes of getting her back to the sports book.  For the week she won four of five against the spread, collected a very impressive eight of nine bones, and punched the hunch bet ticket yet again.  Vegas needs to try to get even.

For the season Abby’s four paws stand at 19 wins and 16 losses, winning 38 and losing 29 bones wagered, and improved her hunch bet to a gaudy six wins and only two losses.

As a reminder each bone is the hypothetical equivalent of betting $11 to win $10 as Vegas takes the $1 juice when they win.  So in winning 38 bones she has collected $380 (38 x $10).  In losing 29 bones she has lost $319 (29 x $11).  The net take season to date is $61 on a win percentage of 57% (38/67).   If you bet $11 on each hunch bet you would have won $60 while giving back only $22.  Enough with the calculus, and on to this week’s opportunities.

It’s big spreads and big home dogs week.  Abby loves home dogs, but is wary of big home dogs and big favorites.  In the top 6 Alabama, LSU, THE, Clemson and Wisconsin are all on the road and are favored by an average of 27 points while Oklahoma is a 33 1/2 home favorite.  Woof!  Be careful.

Purdue v. Iowa -17 —  Iowa’s offensive scores are few and far in between.  Iowa’s defensive scores allowed are even fewer and farther in between.  Purdue has underwhelmed Abby to this point.  It’s a Big 10 grind and an Iowa win 33-10 with a late cover.  One bone.

Florida -5 v. South Carolina and Under 46 1/2 —  Will Muschamp, fresh off of a huge road upset over Georgia, hopes that his team can keep the mojo going at home.  Dan Mullen, fresh off of a 42-28 LSU road loss, hopes his Gators can recapture the mojo that lead to the 6-0 start.  Abby will pair the Gator win with the under.  Both teams scored a lot last week, while this one sets up to be a slobber knocker.  One bone to win Three Bones.

Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +4—  Has Abby ever mentioned that she loves home dogs?

The Orangemen’s season is basically on the line here.  They are one of the bigger disappointments season to date in the Power Five Conferences.  Abby is sniffing an outright win, but will wag her tail if she gets a cover.  Two bones.

Florida St. +2 v. Wake Forest —  Willie Taggert said last week that his team is close to being “right there” again in the ACC.  Then they went out and got worked by the Clemson Tigers.  If there is any fight left in the Seminoles (seems like an offensive name to Abby) they’ll win straight up.  Two bones.

Baylor v. Oklahoma St -4 —  On paper this almost seems like the wrong team is favored.  Abby has been long on the resurgent Bears all year.  But, the line and the spot seem right for a Cowboy victory by about a touchdown.  We’ll call it 38-31 Okie St.  One bone.

Oregon v. Washington +3 —  Abby chases ducks whenever possible.  Her Husky friend does the same.  Oregon seems to be the best in the west by a fair margin.  But, we see two loses on their tail feathers and this is the second and final one.  One Bone.

On a hunch Abby is taking LSU v. Mississippi St. under 62 total points.  LSU has nearly averaged that on their own this year.  But.  This game is sandwiched in between Florida and Auburn.  LSU runs the ball a lot this week, rests several regulars, serves a few more suspensions, and plays some D to hold Moo St. to less than 17.

Start spreading the news.  Abby also likes the ball in Verlander’s hand tonight.

Woof!

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The beginning of the work week is upon us.  And, the beginning of almost exclusive NCAA football conference play is also upon us.  You have to take care of business every Saturday in conference play.  If you don’t, someone will be there to take food off of your table.  Here are ten nuggets for your breakfast table to kick start your week.

  1.  A week ago we called the lack of movement in the top ten “frankly boring.”  Like the weather, that changed this past Saturday.  The new AP top 25 is out.  And, Alabama took care of it’s business to remain # 1 with a solid conference road victory over the Texas A&M Aggies 47-28.  Tua T threw his first pick of the year and Alabama had 11 penalties accepted against them.  That’ll make this week’s practice for the Tide anything but frankly boring when Saban tears into his team.
  2. And, previous #5 became this week’s #2.  The fighting Tigers of LSU trailed a talented Florida team after one drive in the third quarter 28-21.  But from there for real Heisman candidate Joe Burrow took over on offense, and Dave Aranda’s leaky defense took over Florida’s offense.  LSU scored 21 unanswered to secure a 42-28 win.  It was it’s second win of the year over a top ten team.  Apparently the voters were impressed.
  3. Clemson and THE Ohio St. University slid one spot each to #3 and #4 respectively.  Clemson rolled a below average Florida St. team 45-14, while THE took the week off after it stymied an offensively challenged Michigan St team 34-10 the week prior.
  4. Oklahoma fans are hot.  The now #5 Sooners beat the then #11 ranked Texas Longhorns by seven points.  Oklahoma feels like they should be ranked higher.  If their Red River Rivalry score would have better reflected how they dominated Texas between the 20’s, maybe they would be.  Jalen Hurts dazzled at times and at others made poor decisions.  The only ranked team left on the Sooner’s schedule is down the road with #18 Baylor.  They’ll need some help to climb.  And, they’ll likely get it.
  5. Knock knock.  Who’s there?  The Big 10.  The Big 10 who?  The Big 10 who now have Wisconsin at #6 and Penn St. at  #7 to go along with THE at #4.  Wisconsin shut out said offensively challenged Michigan St. 38-0.  It’s Whisky’s fourth shutout in six games.  On the year they have allowed a mere 29 points in total.  Impressive.  Penn St. held off offensively challenged Iowa in Iowa 17-12.   Iowa has scored 18, 3, and 12 in conference games worth mentioning.  Thirty against Rutgers doesn’t count for much.
  6. The loud thud you heard was Georgia falling from #3 to #10.  We stated above that you have to take care of business every Saturday in conference play.  If you don’t, someone will be there to take food off of your table.   The Gamecocks of South Carolina took away UGA’s dog bowl and did so between the Athens’ hedges.    It’s a big win for Will Muschamp’s continued tenure at SC.  It’s a big loss for Kirby Smart’s team.  They’ll now need to beat Florida, win the SEC East, and beat the West opponent in the SEC Championship Game to have any shot at barking about inclusion in the playoffs.
  7.  Notre Dame sits somewhat quietly at #8.  Georgia beat them a few weeks ago.  We aren’t sure how they get the #8 spot, two ahead of Georgia.  But, Georgia only has Georgia to blame.  The Irish ran for over 300 yards in South Bend, and held on at the wire to defeat a game USC team.
  8.  Oregon remains the highest ranked PAC 12 team checking in at #12.  They’ve been impressive after a season opening loss to Auburn.  Don’t believe us?  Ask Colorado who got worked on both sides of the ball in a 45-3 wipe out.  On defense, the Ducks lead the conference with an average of 8.7 points per game surrendered. Oregon does face a test in Week 8 — a road trip to No. 25 Washington that is a must-win if the Ducks look to keep any shot at the playoff alive. The Ducks are a 2 1/2 point early week favorite.
  9. Who else remains undefeated after seven weeks?  If you said Boise St #14, Baylor #18,  SMU #19, Minnesota #20, and Appalachian St. #24 you’ve been watching too much college ball.  Is there a 2017 UCF type run in one of them?  We don’t know.  But, don’t sleep on Baylor.  Their schedule toughens from here.  But, Texas and Oklahoma both have to travel to Waco.
  10.  Congrats to Tennessee for getting an SEC win 20-10 over the Mississippi St. Bulldogs.  The season opening loss to Georgia St. stings a wee bit less now.  The Volunteers should not celebrate for very long, however.  They travel to Tuscaloosa this weekend for their yearly “natural rival” game v. Alabama.  Bama is a big 34 1/2 point favorite to kick around the team with the blue tick hound.  Big spreads litter the Vegas Strip this week.  Ohio St, Clemson, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and LSU  are favored over conference opponents by 27, 23, 29, 33, and 19 points respectively.

It’s a quick 4 days till Friday.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Seven

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s hard to believe but after Saturday 50% of the regular NCAA season will be gone.  But, 50% remains.  And, what remains will be the better half as conference play is now the norm.

Abby and her bank account reaches the halfway mark just a bit ahead of that 50/50 area.  For the season her picks are 15 up v. 15 down.  The more important bones collected are 30 up and 28 down.  And, her amazing (dog) run on hunch (LY was 9-1) bets continues this year, now standing at 5 wins and only 2 losses.

Halloween is still three weeks away.  Some of the lines are a bit spooky.  Bravely, to the boneyard we go!

Virginia v. Miami -2 —  Virginia’s head coach is a Broncho, but Miami’s team speed is a Mustang.  It’ll be 90 degrees with 90 percent humidity down there tomorrow night.  Miami sweats out a late Cavalier drive and wins by more than 2 and less than 7.  One bone.

Oklahoma v. Texas +11 —  Texas upset Oklahoma last year in the Red River Rivalry.  A few years back this was called the Red River Shootout.    The PC crowd was upset about the violent name.  Nobody in the Big 12 plays violently, so what’s the big deal?  Expect a lot of scoring in this shootout.  Oklahoma gets the win, but so does Texas and the points.  One bone.

Mississippi St. v Tennessee + 7 —  This is Abby’s game of the month. How much better can it get?   It’s a bulldog vs. a blue tick hound!  And, the hound dog is a live home dog.  A straight up win by the Volunteers is possible.  There might even be a dog pile in the checkerboard endzone post game.  Four bones.

Cincinnati v. Houston + 7 1/2 —  The Bearcats are riding high after a home upset of UCF and have arrived in the AP Top 25 this week at #25.  They might leave H Town with a straight up loss and fall back into the dreaded “others receiving votes” mix mash.  One bone.

UAB -12 v. UTSA —  This is the eye chart game with all capital letters.  So far this year UAB passes the eye test.  That little bird that Abby keeps telling us about has a birdseye view of this one.  One bone.

The left coast has been great to Abby for hunches that win bunches.  Last week 16 point favorite Washington lost straight up to Stanford.   This week they are favored in Tuscon by 6 over the Arizona Wildcats.  Abby feels like the odds makers are begging you to take Arizona.  On a hunch she likes the Huskies doggone it.

 

Abby has again assigned the BBR staff to cover the LSU game live.  Work, work, work.

Woof, woof, woof!