NFL

One More Go for Tebow

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Why can’t we have one thing without the other?  It’s because today’s society says we can’t.

Any moment that could be viewed as a good one is torn down by the other side because someone a) unfairly benefited, b) has white privilege, c) it’s the good old boys again, etc, etc.

This time as the Jacksonville Jaguars might/probably/will offer Tim Tebow one more shot at his American Dream, we get a barrage of “if Tebow gets a chance so should Kapernick.”  One has everything to do with the other on the obvious level,  but it has nothing to do with the other when you dig into any of the details surrounding Tebow’s latest and likely last attempt at playing NFL ball.

Tebow’s old college coach Urban Meyer is now the Jaguars headman.  They won a championship or two together a decade ago at the U of Florida.  Maybe Meyer loves what Tebow brings to the locker room.  Work ethic and leadership come to mind.  If you just wondered about Kapernick’s work ethic and leadership you just fell into the same trap described above.  They’re mutually exclusive of one another.  But, that’s ok, we’ll play along as well.

Tebow has been asked to try the TE position before but was adamant about playing QB.  He’s gotten as many offers at QB in the last eight years as Kapernick has in the last four.  That would be zero.  So, a new position on a new position gives air to a 34-year-old’s last attempt.

Maybe he won’t make it, maybe he will.  But his willingness to try earns the short-term modest contract and opportunity in an old coaches’ eye.

Meanwhile, last we saw Kaepernick he was supposed to show his skills (after a couple of years away from the sport) to those NFL scouts, coaches, and GMs that decided to make the effort to see him in the much-ballyhooed, arranged by the NFL, tryout.

How did Kapernick do? Well, he showed up late.  He showed up with his own film crew (unannounced prior)  that he was insisting be allowed to record the event.  Then he refused to go through some of the workout as planned by the NFL.

The word that is opposite of willing is unwilling.  Unwilling usually doesn’t get you as far along in a job search as willing might.

Meanwhile, has anyone looked up the personnel breakdown stats in the NFL?  In 2019 59% of the players identified as African American, and in 2020 that percentage had risen to a tick below 70%.  With that as the backdrop, we ask the question, “if any NFL team thought Colin Kaepernick (baggage included) thought that he could help them win on the field, in the locker room, or in their community, wouldn’t they sign him?”

When Antonio Brown signed on mid-season last year with Tampa Bay, why didn’t anyone scream about Kaepernick then?  Or Tebow for that matter?

Malcontents abound in the league.  Your skillset has to more than offset your drama though.

Tim Tebow brings no drama.  He may also bring no skillset at TE either.

In the world of supply and demand, there is little for Tebow (even with all of that white privilege) and less for Kaepernick.  But, that assertation doesn’t work with the narrative of the day.

 

Trade Up for a Franchise QB?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The words “franchise” and “quarterback” go together in the NFL like “hammer” and “nail” do in the construction business.

Every team has a quarterback or three.  But, not every team has what anyone will tell you is the most important piece to success- a franchise quarterback.  A deep playoff run, much less a Super Bowl win, is highly improbable without one.

In this century (if you consider the year 2000 as part of this century) 25 times a team has traded up to be able to say “we got our guy.”  When you use the draft book that all teams use to value every slot in the entire draft, you figure that, on average, a team trading up to get the next Patrick Mahomes gives up an additional 1st round pick to do so.

A first-round pick is gold.  NFL teams’ highest hit rate on success is in round one and with the salary cap that successful pick is under contract for arguably less than half of his worth in free agency.  That’s called value and that’s how you win in the NFL-you have more talent under the same salary cap.

So, to give one up is to give up a lot.  So, how have the 25 trade-ups fared?  You’d think quite well considering all that goes into player personnel research.

The answer is good, ok, and downright ugly.

Good

In 2017 The Kansas City Chiefs sent their first, 2018 first, and a third-rounder to move to number 10 overall to take the aforementioned Patrick Mahomes.  One SB win, another appearance, three Pro Bowls, and one MVP later make this move not only good, but bordering on genius.

In that same draft, the Houston Texans traded two firsts for 15 spots up to nab DeShaun Watson.  Twenty lawsuits off of the field aside (and that’s one big aside when he’s the face of the franchise) his on-field development has been worthy.

Honorable mention for this level goes to the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen as well as the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson.

Ok

Joe Flacco only cost the Ravens a swap of ones, a third, and a sixth to move up eight spots to get him 18th overall.  While not elite he was special in their 2012 postseason and SB win with 11 touchdowns and no picks.  Flacco played 11 years with the Ravens and won 96 while losing 67.

The Rams traded multiple picks and got three in return for the first pick of 2016 for Jared Goff.  The price was steep.  The results were ok.  Goff led the Rams to the SB once, made the playoffs in three of the five years he was there, and posted a 42-27 overall mark.  But, Sean McVay fell out of love with Goff and shipped him to the NFL’s version of hell (Detroit) this offseason.

Others considered at this level are Jay Cutler (35k passing yards) and Michael Vick (rushed for over 900 yards in two seasons and went 38-28 as a starter before he got into trouble with the law).

Ugly

Amazingly the list is long at this level and picking the biggest winner (or loser) is tough.  “Lipstick” and “pig” come to mind, not “franchise” and quarterback.”

Johnny “Heisman” Manzel takes first (last) place here.  He appeared in 14 games in two seasons for the Browns.  And, with many off of the field problems he never played another down in the NFL.  Bust is thy name.

Tim Tebow cost Denver a second, third, and fourth-rounder to get into the bottom of round one. in 2010.  Tebow was out of the NFL by 2013.  He started 14 games, though one was a miracle first-round win over Pittsburgh in the 2011 playoffs.

The Browns make the board again with the selection of Brady Quinn in 2007.  He stated and played poorly in 12 games in the NFL.  The price to swap one’s was a high second-rounder.

Others in consideration were Josh Rosen (Cardinals) who could easily be in the above top three, Paxton Lynch (Broncos) with four starts and a league exit in two years, and J.P. Losman (Bills) who defined mediocrity in five mediocre Bills’ seasons from 2004-2008.

 

Five quarterbacks will likely go in the first round on Thursday night.  Teams reach every year to find Mr. Right.

In case you are wondering, Ryan Leaf was drafted in 1998 and therefore wasn’t considered for the above.

Had he been two years younger we would have needed a category below “UGLY.”

One or more of the five Thursday could join him.

Who will that be?  That would require a crystal ball.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Betting on the Come

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Something isn’t adding up.  At least it isn’t adding up just yet.  But, it will.

“Of those who watch sports on TV, about 11 percent said they now watch more as a result of political and social messaging,” a late March Yahoo! Sports survey concluded. “However, 34.5 percent, more than one-third, said they are watching less. The vast majority, roughly 56.3 percent, said they watch about the same amount regardless of political or social messaging.”

The NFL’s dominance of the sports and television landscape is not coming to an end anytime soon.  On Thursday, March 21st, the league announced a new 11-year, $110 billion deal with its television partners that will begin in 2023. That’s billion with a big capital B.  For perspective, the previous deal, which runs from 2014 through 2022,  was inked for a paltry $27.9 billion back in 2011.

The contrast of the two paragraphs above is obvious.

We offer two catchphrases.  One, time heals all wounds.  And two, the media moguls and the NFL execs must be betting on the come.

“Betting on the Come” is derived from a gambling expression and means you don’t have what you want or need, now at the moment.  But, you are betting or hoping you will have what you want or need when the time comes.

What you want or need are advertisers to sell airtime to so that you can offset the $110 billion you are spending for the broadcast rights.  What you want or need are fans to watch in record numbers so that said advertisers will want or need the airtime.

And every network that had a part of the last package dove in to maintain their position.  One newcomer is Amazon Prime.  “All the networks know that having NFL rights is an absolute must-have if they’re going to build those direct consumer streaming services,” says Rob Simmelkjaer, the former director of programming at ESPN.

So once America heals from Covid-19 pain and once it heals from the social discourse all things return to normal, eh?  Perhaps.  But the real reason why ESPN, ABC, NBC, and FOX bet on the come was they bet that bettors would come to the broadcasts.

Commissioner Roger Goodell made no secret of this upon the announcement of the NFL’s new television deal.  “We’re going to find ways we can engage fans with legalized sports betting,” said Goodell.

The league can now speak openly about betting and start to integrate betting content into the presentation of their games.  “It’s what allowed them to get such a big increase in this round of negotiations,” Simmelkjaer continued.

Placing a team in Vegas was a tell.  And, now the league that suspended players Paul Hornung and Alex Karras in 1963 for flirting with gamblers has come full circle.  Then Commissioner Pete Rozelle even referred to the unsavory types as “known hoodlums.”

Perhaps the known hoodlums are no longer known as hoodlums.

This brings us to the third and final catchphrase of the morning.

Follow the money.

Always.

 

 

It Never Ends

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Just when you thought it couldn’t get any tougher for the NFL Houston Texans in their offseason of upheaval and discontent it did.  One week you’re releasing the greatest player in the team’s history on the field and best representative (think choir boy) off of it, J.J. Watt.

The next week?  Oh boy.  Yesterday news broke that the franchise’s star quarterback DeShaun Watson has been accused of sexual assault in a lawsuit filed on behalf of a masseuse.  She claims that during a massage that “Watson went too far.”

Watson, who had his best season on the field in 2020 had already asked repeatedly to be traded in 2021.  He doesn’t like the direction the franchise has taken or not taken to produce a winning culture.   And, now, the Texans will not like the direction Watson has taken.

The Texans are a rare entity in the NFL truth be known.  The founder and owner passed away a year ago and left the future of the franchise to his “in over his head” son Cam McNair.  They place player comportment equal to, if not ahead of, winning.

“This case we just filed against Watson isn’t about money — it’s about dignity and stopping the behavior that should be stopped, NOW!” plaintiff attorney Tony Buzbee said.  Old Tony smells money inside of a nationwide trend, doesn’t he?

Watson uncorked a spiral on Twitter.  “The plaintiff’s lawyer claims that this isn’t about money, but before filing the suit he made a baseless six-figure settlement demand, which I quickly rejected.”

Of course, everyone is innocent until proven guilty in the good old USA, right?  Well, in today’s #metoo and cancel culture environment that old “innocent until proven guilty” right might be true in a court case, but in the court of public opinion that isn’t always the case.

Shouldn’t this be a criminal investigation?  Is it?  Will it be?  At this time, details, if any exist to that end, are not known.

Sex, fame, money, and power.  They all sleep in the same bed.  It’s just how they all get played or paid out that determines the eventual outcome.  False claims can pay as well.

Ask Judge Kavanaugh, Donald Trump,  Bill Clinton, Harvey Weinstein, Jeffery Epstein, or Andrew Cuomo.  While the seriousness of the charges varies, so do the answers.  Seemingly innocent, hush money talks, guilty, very guilty, suicide, and wait and see come to mind.

Or, ask Robert Kraft, New England Patriots owner.  His videoed massage(or massages) and subsequent charges of soliciting prostitution were so tied up in court with his lawyers blocking the prosecution that they dropped the charges.

As an aside, if the Texans were serious about trading Watson, the return that they can expect just took a nosedive.  If Watson is really serious about getting traded he actually helped his cause.

It’s a sordid world that we live in.

The “breaking” stories are never-ending.

But, we suspect many have a happy ending.

 

 

 

 

 

Party With the Lombardi

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

If everybody every day got offended by everything would that actually enable cancel culture to cancel cancel culture?  Just asking as 1) we cannot be that far from it, and 2) it would be a merciful end to the maniacal madness.

Can we just make it stop?  We are asking for a friend.

Actually, we are asking for Tom Brady.  He’s in hot water(not really) after tossing the Lombardi Trophy over Tampa Bay water from one boat to another as all of Tampa celebrated the Bucs Super Bowl victory with a boozy Super Bowl boat parade.

He completed the pass just like he has so many before with a real football that isn’t attached to the stem of the trophy. So, no big deal right?  Wrong.

“It just upset me that this trophy was disgraced and disrespected by being thrown as if it was a real football,” the daughter of the man who designed the Vince Lombardi Trophy, Lorraine Grohs told Tampa’s Fox 4.

“I personally would like an apology, not just to me and my family and the other silversmiths but to the fans, all the football fans, the other team players,” she insisted.

Did she miss anybody?

“Hi, Tom Brady here.  I’d like to personally apologize to all silversmiths near and far for my outrageous behavior late last week.  Hic.  Apparently, having fun and silver trophies don’t mix well.”

Would that tongue-tied in cheek BS apology be sufficient?  We can hope.

The woman went on to claim that she has experienced “sleepless nights” over what she feels is the “disrespect” her father’s handiwork received.  Sleepless nights?  Sure.

The only thing worse than that claim is that this nonsensical “news” story even got air time.  And, maybe that, unto itself, is the problem.

Everyone wants to be famous for 15 minutes even when it’s achieved by taking a shot at a guy who took a few shots on the field then a few more off of the field.

“I only watch the game to watch the trophy come out. I like to see all the owners and the football players just hold it up with such pride and hold it up and show everybody and I get goosebumps…. like right now I’m getting goosebumps,” she admitted.

Goosebumps!  It’s not winning the trophy that’s the thing, it’s seeing the trophy.  Who knew?

Tom tweeted, “nothing to see here, just a little avocado tequila.”

Nothing to see here, indeed.

Pass the Alka Seltzer

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The Super Bowl and the Super Bowl party (not in that order) took its toll on the BBR staff.  Here’s ten observations from afar.

  1.   You have to be sick of watching Brady and his pearly whites accept the MVP Trophy by now don’t you?
  2.   Tampa Bay won with Brady, but they won because of their defense.  That side of the ball has been ferocious for two months now.
  3.   The commercials used to help during a boring game.  Used to…..
  4.   Twenty five thousand fans and thirty thousand cut outs watched the game live.  What do the cutouts do really?  Weird times.
  5.   Did you bet the prop that KC would score no touchdowns in the game?  If you did, a one buck wager paid you back 500 of them.
  6.   There was a lot of maskless celebration going on post game.  The New Orleans Saints will get fined for it.  They always do.  It’s like Jerry Tarkanian once     said, “every time North Carolina recruits illegally Cleveland St gets put on probation.”
  7.   Maybe a great defense can still beat a great offense.  If so, look out for the LA Rams next year.  Stafford just needs throw some game management passes    and an occasional zinger or two.
  8.   The Waste Management Phoenix Open never disappoints the day of the SB.  The blue sky and green grass contrasted againsted the desert tan sand        makes most of the rest of the U.S. yearn for warmer days.
  9.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Lori Locust and Maral Javadifar become the first female assistant coaches to win a Super Bowl.  While referee Sarah Thomas became the first female official to work a Super Bowl.   One of our overserved guests remarked upon learning this, and we quote, “whoop tee do.”  Our government is likely using facial recognition to out him(or her) as we speak.
  10.  Who’s going to win the SB next year?  The Chiefs, listed at +550 at Caesars Sportsbook, are the favorite to win Super Bowl LVI. The Green Bay Packers are next at +900, followed by the champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +1100.  But, before you drop too much coin on one of them realize that Tampa Bay was +5000 this time last year.

Plop, plop.  Fizz, fizz.

When It Was a Game

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s been a while since we served up some Ten Piece Nuggets for your consumption.  As sports and the “real world” continue to collide we decided to take you back to a simpler time when the games were about the games.  Take a trip down Super Bowl memory lane.

  1.  With Super Bowl LV upon us, we thought we’d visit an old adage.  In order to be effective in this league you have to be able to run the ball and stop the run.  Can you name the last Super Bowl winner to lead the league in regular-season rushing yards?  It’s been a while actually.  It’s the 1985 Chicago Bears.  On their Super Bowl Shuffle way, they amassed a league-leading 2761 yards.
  2. And, they could stop the run as well. In their three post-season games that year they gave up a total of 125 yards rushing.  In the 85′ Super Bowl beatdown of NE, the Patriots gained exactly 7 net rushing yards.
  3. Guess who completed the longest pass play in Super Bowl history.  Montana? Nope.  Marino?  Nope.  Elway? Nope.  Give up?  You should.  It’s Jake “The Cajun Snake” Delhomme.  The Carolina Panther’s QB completed an 85-yard pass to Muhsin Muhammad against the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVIII.
  4. Guess who is the only running back to gain over 200 yards in any Super Bowl.  Payton? Nope.  Riggins?  Nope.  Faulk? Nope.  It’s Redskin Timmy Smith who went off for an all-time Super Bowl record with 204 rushing yards in Super Bowl XXII as his Washington Redskins ran roughshod over the Denver Broncos.  Who?
  5. Hello Friends!  Jim Nantz might catch him one day, but for now, Pat Summerall has provided the play by play on TV for more Super Bowls (11) than any of his contemporaries.
  6. Eleven seems to be the lucky number for Summerall and for Miami.  The Magic City as it’s known has hosted the most Super Bowls with 11.
  7. The 2011 (there’s that number again) New York Football Giants own the distinction of having the worst regular-season record at 9-7 of any SB winner.  It’s important to get hot at the right time they(whoever they are) say.  Super Bowl XLII(42) was the one that had the greatest and most important catch as well.  It’s considered the greatest catch in SB history.  It’s important to get lucky at the right time as well.
  8. Pennsylvania is known as the hotbed of QBs.  It’s produced Namath, Marino, Montana, Kelly, and many more.  But, California has produced the most Super Bowl winners with five: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Trent Dilfer, Troy Aikman and Jim Plunkett.
  9. It is one thing to get to the biggest of them all.  It’s yet another to win it.  It’s yet another to get there multiple times and never lose.  But, that accomplishment is rare.  Only the Baltimore Ravens have won more than one and not lost any.  And, they are only 2-0.
  10. And finally, Dallas and Pittsburgh have met the most times(3) for the Lombardi Trophy in NFL history.  But, it has been a while since they have.  The contests ended the 1975, 1978, and 1995 seasons.

Tampa Bay becomes the first team to host a Super Bowl this coming Sunday.

Friday the winners of the prop bets and the game will be available for you right here on BBR on Al Gore’s Internet.

 

Big Stakes and Cultural Shakes

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Twelve NFL seasons ago Matthew Stafford roared in like the Lion he was.

And, now after 162 starts, 45,109 yards passing, and 282 TD’s the Rams hope he hasn’t turned into a lamb from all of the QB hits he’s taken as Lion with all of the misfits that did or did not block for him.

The Rams, as we are certain that you heard, shipped starting QB Jared Goff, two first-round picks, and one third-round pick to Detroit in a mega-deal for Stafford.

It’s a massive price for the Rams to pay.  The trade comes less than two years after Goff signed a massive four-year, $134 million contract with the Rams, which runs through 2024.

It’s noteworthy that Goff struggled in 2019 and 2020 after his first three seasons in the league that saw his star ascending.  In LA you’re only as good as your last act or two.  And director Sean McVay has seen enough.

It’s also noteworthy that Goff’s stats after five years in the league are so similar to Stafford’s that you’d swear you were watching one of those old Hollywood reruns.

For LA it’s the Super Bowl or bust.  And they’re betting big that Stafford has plenty of skill left in his 33-year-old body to give a command performance or two before the curtain comes down on their elite defense.  If they win one big one, maybe you could say the price was worth it.

Maybe.

Rarely in the NFL do you give up more people and picks to get fewer people and picks and get the better of the deal.  Rarely.

In Detroit, new Head Coach Dan Campbell roared in like the Lion that he now is at his very first press conference.  In LA they call it must-see TV.  The sound bites even include knee cap bites.

Campbell knows that Motor City is starved for a winner.  He also knows that he needs a lot more individual winners on his team than he has.

To create a winning culture out of a perennial losing one massive change is needed.  Ironically Stafford joined Detroit the same year, and played his first game ever, against a new head coach named Sean Payton in New Orleans in 2009.  Payton did just that, changing a perennially losing franchise into a winning one.

Head Coach Campbell just spent the last three seasons under Sean’s (Payton that is) wing.

We suspect that Campbell will be more than willing to change more spare parts out of Detroit for more new shiny ones.  It might almost look like an assembly line by the start of the 2021 season.

And, having more one’s and a three is a start to that start that few HCs get to tinker with.  And, what if, just what if, he can kick start Goff, too?

Rarely does the Lions organization come to mind when the word “savvy” is tossed about.

This time it should. And, maybe it’s LA like, but “bravo,” sounds about right, too.

 

 

SB LV is the New SB I

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Six weeks ago BBR asked if we were headed to a rematch of Super Bowl One where Green Bay and Kansas City kicked of what has become the greatest championship in all of sports.

And then there were four.  And KC and GB are both favored to make it to Tampa for Super Bowl Roman numeral LV.

Abby sez:

Buffalo at Kansas City -3  –  The obvious is that Mahomes is going to miss.  What should also be obvious by now is that KC looks like a determined team to go back to back.   It won’t be easy.  And, remember,  “nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills, ” said Chris Berman 500 times in the past.  Buffalo has had a hell of a run.  Abby likes the politically incorrect.  And the nickname “Chiefs” is one of the few left standing.

Tampa Bay at Green Bay -3.5 – The battle of the Bays is what Berman used to call this twice a year meeting when these two teams were in the same division together years ago.  Back then one was bad and the other was worse.  No more.  Brady and Rodgers will be great theater.  The GOAT of them all v the GOAT of 2020.   Rodgers is on the same mission that KC is.

Picking chalk has a way of feeling like a dog bite at times.  We’ll see.

Woof!

 

 

Brees’ Passing

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The BBR staff is off today as we celebrate the life of Dr. Martin Luther King and his too soon, unfortunate passing.

Some also are mourning the unfortunate passing of Drew Brees last evening.  No, he is still very much alive.  It’s his right arm that isn’t with us any longer.

It was a great run.  But it’s time, says Father Time.

Century to date only the man that beat him yesterday, Tom Brady, has had a clear-cut better run.  Peyton Manning might have a strong argument, too.  And with how Aaron Rogers is playing his body of work might soon pass Brees as well.

Brees will be remembered on the field for what was and was not.

What was, was a statistical rewrite of the QB passing record books.  He’s the career leader in passing rating, completion percentage, total yards, touchdowns, and a few other significant measures.  He won nearly two handfuls of playoff games and one Super Bowl.

What wasn’t, was more Super Bowls than one.  History judges QBs with two or more Super Bowl wins on a different level.  It’s almost as if “you did it once, now prove that wasn’t a one time deal.”  For Brees and for Sean Payton (so far) it is a one time deal.

And, Payton, who has had a magnificent run with the New Orleans Saints franchise, does and should get credit for molding the team’s run of success.

But Payton must shoulder blame that the run has so far stopped at one.  From 2012-2016 he failed to field a defense to match his high octane offense.  From 2017 till now they’ve greatly underachieved come playoff time.  Last year they didn’t have enough skill position weapons around Drew but had a salty defense.  This year Payton basically played the same hand and got the same results.

Off of the field, Brees has been a tremendous asset in the community.  The kneel/no kneel controversy aside, his foundation, charity work, and business ventures have helped hundreds and employed hundreds more.

He said after the game that he would take some time to decide if “this was it.”  But, minutes before he had tears in his eyes for a reason while walking off of the Superdome’s floor.

Next year he’ll take a seat in the NBC broadcasting booth.

And, in five years a spot in Canton will have his name on it.  After all, as Dr. King once said, “the time is always right to do the right thing.”