NFL

In the NFL Fashion is King(sbury).

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Psst!  Want to know a little secret about the fashion industry?  When it accomplishes its goal it makes you want to go out and buy something new.  You see the new on tv, magazines, websites, runways, etc.   Suddenly what was new in your closet is old.  You want the new.  You need the new.  You have to have it and have it now.  Suddenly all stores, all designers, all price points are chasing the latest.  Copycats they are.

Psst! Want to know a little secret about the NFL?  When one team has success doing something a certain way or hiring a certain type of coach others follow quickly.  The owners have to have it and have it now.  Copycats they are.

What’s the latest?  The latest is the Sean McVay model.  Sean McVay (born January 24, 1986) is the head coach of the Los Angeles Rams. Upon his hiring in 2017 at the age of 30, he became the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. But most of all he is thought of as a “quarterback whisperer.”  Young Jared Goff exploded onto the “franchise qb” scene last year under McVay’s tutelage.  Combine that with McVay’s youth,daring play calling, and “can do” personna and, suddenly, orange is the new black.

Heck just a few weeks ago, before the weather worsened, teams were engaging in games that were lighting up scoreboards.  Forty something to forty something final scores were in style.  Experts looked at these new designs on all of the fashion shows preening down the runways and pronounced it as the new NFL.

Enter the Arizona Cardinals.  After they parted ways with Bruce Arians (Arizona’s most successful coach since they moved to the desert) in 2017 after five seasons, in came a former DC and DB coach Steve Wilks.  But, after one bad season and no real development of their first round QB draft pick Josh Rosen, out goes the defensive mindset.

Enter Kliff Kingsbury as the new head coach of the Cardinals.  Young ole’ Kliff was terminated by the Texas Tech powers that be after his head coaching ascension there stalled in December at the end of season six.  He accepted the OC job at USC a week or so ago.  Then poof!  Hopefully his lease was minute to minute.

But like Jimmy cracked corn, the Cardinals don’t care about his head coaching past nor his lack of loyalty to USC.  After all he was the OC under Kevin Sumlin at A&M when Johnny “Football” Manziel hit the big screen.  Oh, and then he coached Pat Mahomes at Texas Tech.  Surely he is the next QB guru just like skinny jeans are the new bell bottoms.

Meanwhile, last weekend, both Sunday playoff games entered halftime with none of the four participants scoring a single touchdown.  That was a first.  Ever.  That came on the unfashionable heels of a December 9th Bears defensive shutdown of the high flying Rams 15-6.

The post season credo has been “you have to be able to stop the run and run the ball” to win in the post season.  But, copycat franchises have to have that new fashion fix.  Good luck.

Maybe black is actually the new orange?

 

 

I Have Yet Another Story and a Moral Thereof

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

In August of 1971 the third round draft pick of the New Orleans Saints, Bivian Lee, began practicing with the team that had high hopes for a breakout year.  Also in August of 1971 the high hopes of civic leaders were realized as construction finally began on the largest indoor stadium in the world, the New Orleans Superdome.

Sports visionary David Dixon (who decades later founded the United States Football League) conceptualized the Superdome while attempting to convince the NFL to award a franchise to New Orleans. After hosting exhibition games at Tulane Stadium during typical New Orleans summer thunderstorms, Dixon was told by NFL Commissioner Pete Rozelle that NOLA would have no chance for an NFL expansion team without a domed stadium.

It was hoped the stadium would be ready in time for the 1972 NFL season, at the final cost of $46 million. Instead, construction did not start until August 1971, and was not finished until August 1975.   Factoring in inflation, construction delays, and the increase in transportation costs caused by the 1973 oil crisis, the final price tag of the stadium was nearly four times the estimated.  It was a bloated $165 million.

Meanwhile Bivian and the Saints stumbled along in years 1971,2,3 and 4.  The cumulative record of the team for those four seasons was 16-37-3.  Bivian was good, not great.  The Saints were bad, not good.  High hopes were not yet realized.

Yet hope springs eternal.  It was now August of 1975.  A new NFL season was four preseason games away.  And for the Saints it meant a new home, the Superdome, and a fresh start.

Preseason games are for practice and ironing out the kinks for the most part.  For the operation of the Superdome it was much the same warmup for its soon to be regular season grand opening.

On a steamy NOLA summer Saturday night 70,000 plus fans packed the dome to savor all if its grandeur for an otherwise meaningless preseason game.  Bivian Lee was entering his fifth year and was once again starting at cornerback for the franchise.  That the Saints lost was forgettable.  How they lost was forgettable too.  The stadium was the story.

Well, the why and how of the loss was forgettable until a reporter asked Bivian about getting beat for two touchdowns early in the contest.  He assured all that he would be better in the regular season.  The reporter asked if maybe Bivian had any trouble adjusting to all of the ceiling lights since it was the first game played under them.  He said yes, but again said not to worry.  When the reporter asked why the confidence, Bivian replied with confidence.  “Because this game was played at night.  And, the regular season games will be played in the day.”

The 1975 season ended as a major disappointment at 2 wins and 12 losses.   The 1975 season was also the end of Bivian Lee’s professional career.

Oh, are you wondering what the moral of the story is?  Apparently you don’t have to be too bright of a light to play under the bright lights of the world renown Superdome.

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NFL

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Sweet and savory and served below, one at a time, are ten NFL nuggets for your digestion.  It was the wild card weekend and it provided some wild moments.

  1. Poof!  And just like that both of the third seeds and one fourth seed are done.  Dallas, a four seed, is the highest rated survivor from the wild Wild Card weekend.  They were also the only home team and division champion to hold serve.
  2. Three lower seeded and visiting teams won on the road.  Two of them dominated.  The Indianapolis Colts and the San Diego Lost in Angeles Chargers won convincingly.
  3. The four losing quarterbacks were Lamar Jackson, DeShaun  Watson, Mitch Trubisky, and Russell Wilson.  They are 22,23,24, and 30 years old respectively.  Their experience in order is rookie, 2nd year, 2nd year, and 7th year.   With age comes experience.  Does experience entering the post season matter?
  4. The four winning quarterbacks were Phillip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Nick Foles, and Dak Prescott.  They are 37,29,29, and 25 years old respectively.  Their experience in order is 17th year, 7th year, 7th year, and 3rd year.  With age comes experience.  Does experience entering the post season matter?
  5.  The Houston Texans won the AFC South Division Championship with an 11-5 record.  But, they did that in name only.  Indy was the better team coming down the stretch.  They started 1-5 yet finished 10-6, coming down the stretch with eight impressive wins and one loss.   After two possessions for each team Saturday it was 14-0 Colts after two “in your face” drives.  School was out and so were the Texans.
  6.  Seattle gave it their all, but Dallas had just a bit more in winning a close one.  If these two teams played ten times they might post five wins each.  The problem for Seattle is that the playoff format is one and done.  Each team’s defense is top five in the league in points allowed and turnovers created.  Dallas has a wee bit more talent on offense.  Seattle has a kicker who does not know how to attempt an onside kick apparently.
  7.  The LA Chargers lost at home to Baltimore three days before Christmas surrendering 22 points to a Raven offense that had a shiny new toy under the tree named Lamar.  It ran like it had fresh batteries.  But like most new toys at Christmas soon the newness wears off.  The Chargers found the off switch.  And suddenly not a creature was stirring, not even a Raven.
  8. Philadelphia looks like a team playing with house money.  They won on the last regular season weekend and coupled with a Vikings loss found themselves in the playoffs.  Then they went to Chicago and found a way to beat the Bears in an entertaining game that had a doink, doink field goal, no good, finish.  The Bears need a new placekicker for the placekicker’s own safety if nothing else.  He is perhaps the most hated Chicago sports figure since Steve Bartman got in the way of a foul fly ball.
  9. This coming weekend has the top two seeds from each conference hosting this past weekend’s winners.  The hosts are rested after having the week off.  Historically three of the top seeds win at home.  But, that’s history.  Philly, Indy, Dallas, and the LA Chargers make for formidable dogs.
  10. Speaking of dogs, the lines are NE(-4) v. LAC, KC(-5) v Indy, LAR(-7) v. Dallas, and NO(-8) v Philly.  Having the week off and having your opponent give it their all the week prior  is a big advantate.  It’s furthered by them having to then travel to face you.  It’s earned during the regular season and very appreciated right about now.  If history holds which of these four home teams lose?  BBR actually thinks two will.  Patriot and Chief fans beware.  Poof!

 

The Rare, but Fair, Fair Catch Kick.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

File this one under the “did you know.”   It’s a good one for around the water cooler to kickoff(see what we did there?) the New Year.  You really didn’t want to work very hard this week anyway did you?  Heck., it’s already late Hump Day or Thirsty Thursday depending on when you read this.

Four juicy NFL playoff games are looming.  Could one end in a last second touchdown pass?  Possible.  Could one end with a last second field goal?  Probable.  Could one end in a last second fair catch kick?  Say what?

Per NFL.com after a fair catch, the receiving team has the option to put the ball in play by a snap or a fair catch kick (field goal attempt), with fair catch kick lines established ten yards apart. All general rules apply as for a field goal attempt from scrimmage. The clock starts when the ball is kicked. (No tee permitted.)

Obviously, the plan can’t unfold without the right conditions. You need pin your opponent deep and force a punt with time expiring or near to expiration.

This is the time that might be right to call for a fair catch followed by a free kick.  Think of it as a kickoff formation where the receiving team must remain minimally ten yards back from the spot of the kick. But, the big difference is that if the kick goes through the uprights it’s good for three points.

After you have successfully executed the fair catch, you have the opportunity to align for a free kick. The ball can be placed anywhere along the line of scrimmage, so the kicker has the opportunity to line his kick up wherever he wants it.  The ball is live after the kick and can be returned by the opposing team if it stays in the field of play.

In high school, the kicking team is allowed to use any legal tee, including the one for kick-offs. Also, in high school if the ball goes into the end zone it’s automatically considered a touchback.

It’s critical that the punting team players not interfere with the fair catch.  If the team fair catching is interfered with, they will march off 15 yards and the fair catch is still awarded, which means they may attempt a free kick even if there is no time left and fifteen yards closer.

Has a fair catch free kick happened before in an NFL game? Yes.  Research is a bit sketchy, but it looks like there have only been 21 free kicks attempted in NFL history, and only three since 1990. There hasn’t been a successful attempt since Ray Wersching made a 45-yarder entering halftime in a Bills-Chargers game in 1976.

Will it happen again?  Sure.  It’s only a matter of when, not if.  With the increasing length and accuracy of kickers today the field is stretched further, increasing the possibility.  With no oncoming rush allowed, isn’t a 70 yarder soon in the cards?

It’s an obscure rule for sure.  One wonders how many NFL coaches are even aware.  But it might come in very handy one day soon.  Oh, and you can drop kick a free kick too.  Never heard of a drop kick?  Drop back in soon and we will examine that obscure, but not lost opportunity, as well.

It’s rare, but it’s fair.  And, it’s free.  It’s the fair catch free kick.

 

Better to Beware Bettor.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

After Santa Claus has come and gone comes the final regular season weekend in the NFL.  Santa comes to town the 25th of every December.  You can bank on it.   The last week of the NFL regular season occurs right afterwards.  You can bank on it.  What you cannot bank on, however, is predicting the outcome of NFL games.

And, week 17 is toughest of all.  Why, you might ask? That can be answered with one easy question.  Who cares?  That is the question.  How can you tell which team cares enough in week 17 to actually give it their all.

Reasons for indifference about winning this Sunday abound.  If you are in the playoffs do you rest some or all of your starters?  If so, do you rest some or all for some or all of the game?  If you need to win to get into the playoffs, do your chances vaporize prior to your kickoff based on results from earlier games that day?  If you are out of the playoffs, do you play for pride(an overused battle cry)?  Or, do you mail it in?  Do you play for your favorite coaches job?  Do you play for your own job?  Does the franchise tank the game to improve their draft position?  Is it time to give that backup quarterback his chance?   Questions far outweigh answers.

All of those legit questions aside, let’s examine a few games and be dumb brave enough to take a stab at their outcomes.  If you bet real money and take advice from the guesses below, we suggest that you stop betting real money.  Or, at least tread very lightly in week 17.

Miami at Buffalo(-3.5)  – Here is the classic two teams playing for pride (read as “nothing”) game.  Miami fired their GM yesterday.  Does that mean their coach’s job is safe?   Oh, and why is Buffalo favored?  We guess it’s because they’re at their home stadium.  Home is also a place where they can get cozy by the fireplace to watch the playoffs.   For no good reason at all, take Miami plus the points.

Detroit at Green Bay(-8.0) – Detroit annually disappoints.  This team lived down to its expectations.  They’ve been mentally out for months and statistically eliminated for weeks.  Green Bay is in the unfamiliar position of playing out the string.  Are they playing to help Joe Philbin get the vacant HC job?  Doubtful.   Are they the better team?  No doubt.  When in doubt take more than a touchdown in any NFL game, anytime.  Except this week.  We’ll take GB to win the game and cover late somehow.

Jacksonville at Houston(-6.5) – Jacksonville imploded weeks ago.  However, they rose from the ashes last weekend.  Houston has a division championship on the line and playoff seeding(possibly) implications at stake.  Best of all Houston lost on the road in a close one last week.  This seems like one of the few games this week that is a good betting spot.  We’ll take Houston to win on the money line though it’s expensive at 3-1.  And we’ll take Houston to cover the 6.5 a well.

Carolina at New Orleans(-9.0) – New Orleans has already secured a bye week and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Carolina shut down weeks ago in the midst of a six game losing streak.  As a result, they shut down Cam Newton two weeks ago due to an ailing wing.  His backup is now hurt.  Enter third stringer Kyle Allen for his NFL debut.  Brees and most of his ailing offensive line might not play at all.  Enter Teddy Bridgewater for his Saints debut.  You get the picture?  Take Carolina plus nine in what will look like a final preseason game though we expect the Saints to win a fairly close one.  Call it 24-18 for grins.

Cincinnatti at Pittsburgh(-14.0) – This one is tricky.  Baltimore hosts the suddenly angry Cleveland Browns at the same time.  If Baltimore wins Pittsburgh is eliminated from the playoff chase.  Pittsburgh might be angry too after a hard fought, close loss to New Orleans last weekend.  Meanwhile we expect Cleveland to keep it close v. Baltimore with the Ravens winning on a late FG.  Pittsburgh never mails it in.  We expect them to score early and often and do a bit of scoreboard watching along the way.  It’s hard to spot 14 points in any NFL game.  We will.  Take Pittsburgh minus.

Good luck wagering in week 17.  You might be better off putting your money at risk in the stock market.  Sorry, too soon?

 

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NFL

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Yummy.  The holiday food and sweets are all around.  Gaining weight(more) unfortunately has never been so easy.  Another food group heats up around Christmas and the New Year as well.  The NFL treats us to some wonderful nuggets as the regular season barrels to the  finish.  Enjoy them one at a time below.  And when you are done, please pass the pecan pie.

  1. The NFL’s oldest head coach, Pete Carroll, is 67.  He’ll be three years older and still leading the Seahawks in 2021 as he agreed to a three-year contract extension yesterday.  This comes a day after his team secured a wild card playoff berth last evening.  Carroll’s Seahawks have made the playoffs for the seventh time in his nine years at the helm.
  2. The New Orleans Saints secured the NFC home field advantage throughout the playoffs in a well contested, entertaining scrap with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Superdome.  Significant?  Very.  The Saints haven’t lost a playoff game in their Superdome home with Drew Brees executing what Sean Payton cooks up.  Ever.  In 2009, as the no. 1 seed they held serve at home, beat Indy in Miami, and hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
  3. Pittsburgh fought valiantly for 60 minutes and came up just short.  They went from being the leader in their division to currently being on the outside looking in at the playoffs.  This weekend they have to beat Cincinnati and hope that either a) Cleveland beats Baltimore, or b) Indianapolis and Tennessee somehow play to a tie.  Pitt is a tough team with a very good coach.  It’s hard to believe that they may be home for good after the holidays.
  4. Raise your hand if you thought Cleveland might be playing in a meaningful game in late December.  The Browns are 7-7-1.  A win would give them their first winning season since 2007.  It would also possibly give Pitt postseason life.  And last but not least, it would give Gregg Williams a nice page or two to add to his PowerPoint presentation as he tries to get the word interim removed from his current title of interim head coach of the Cleveland Browns.
  5. The Houston Texans lost to Philadelphia 32-30.  They also lost their hold on the no. 2 AFC playoff seed and with it a first round bye as a byproduct.  They actually even lost a chance to clinch the AFC South Division as surging Indy lurks oh so closely.  But, rest assured the Texans won when they drafted DeShaun Watson.  His brilliance almost took the Eagles down in their nest.  Watson dazzled the hard to please Philly crowd with 29-40 passing for 339 yards and two touchdowns.  He ran into the end zone for two more.  How he amassed those lofty stats was more impressive than those lofty stats themselves.  That Mahomes is getting national run is elementary.  But, Houston’s dear Watson isn’t far behind.
  6.  The MNF Raiders’ game might have been the last one at the Oakland Coliseum.  Viva Las Vegas.  Speaking of Vegas every road underdog in the NFL either won straight up or covered the spread afforded them.  Betting the NFL from week to week is crazier than having money in the stock market right now.  Ouch, that hurt.  That game versus the Broncos also brought down the curtain on yet another MNF season of broadcasts.  The NFL wants all games this coming weekend to conclude by Sunday to level the playoff playing field.  If only that would bring down the curtain on Jason Whiten’s announcing career.  Ouch, that hurt.
  7.  Quick quiz.  In how many of the last 16 NFL seasons have the New England Patriots won ten or more regular season games?  If you said 16 that would be correct.  Impressive.  Of course playing the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills a total of six times a year helps.  Of course so does having Tom Brady.  The next closest is Indy (thanks Peyton Manning) with 11.
  8. The Vegas Raiders and the Mistake by the Lake Browns have only one ten win season each in those same 16 years.  The NFL structures their league to provide plenty of help to those that cannot help themselves.  We detailed those thoughts recently.  It’s hard to be that bad for that long in the NFL.  These two teams have a lot in common over that time.  They both have or had bad ownership, bad draft picks, bad cap management, and a revolving door at the quarterback position.
  9. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t far ahead or behind depending on your viewpoint.  Sunday’s loss to America’s Team marked the seventh season in the last ten that the Bucs have lost ten or more. Jameis Winston’s rookie contract is up.  Will TB offer the available one year extension to it? This decision about one year has ramifications for many.  Perhaps a call to Nick Foles agent would help in the decision-making process.
  10.  Baltimore was once 4-5 six games ago.  Enter Lamar Jackson at QB.  The Ravens are 5-1 since.  The only loss in that span was in a very hostile Arrowhead Stadium.  Saturday night the Ravens traveled three time zones to the left coast and held the hot Chargers to a stone cold 10 points, winning by 12.  If you are looking for a dark horse, or a dark bird, to make a playoff run look no further than the Ravens.  They run the ball very well and defend the run very well.  That’s a winning January combination.

Is a scoop of homemade vanilla ice cream on top of the pecan pie a bit over the top?  Hmm.

 

Black Monday Shopping Starts Soon-part 4 of 4.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

There are just four shopping days left till Christmas including the madhouse that you will find out there this weekend.  However, if you are in the marketfor a new head coach in the NFL, Black Monday is fast approaching as well.  It’s a madhouse too.  Black Monday is the day several coaches will get their pink slips.  This year it falls on New Year’s Eve.  What a way to end this year and ring in next.

Parts one,  two, and three predicted which franchises thought their coach was naughty and which were nice on 24 teams.  Personnel decisions are always part art and part science.

Today we examine the last eight teams of the 32 in our four-part series.  We begin with the team that will call Vegas its new home one day soon.  As Chris Berman refers to them, “da Radas!”

Oakland Raiders, Jon Gruden–  Want to know who is calling the shots here?  It’s the guy with the ten-year guaranteed contract that traded off his best assets to garner future draft picks.  You need a hint?  It’s not GM Reggie McKenzie who was fired last week.  It’s the guy with the bad haircut.  No, it’s not the owner, Mark Davis.  It’s Jon Gruden, aka Chuckie.  Chuckie’s contract makes him one of the safest bets in our feature.  And you were told there was no such thing as a safe bet in Vegas.

Philadelphia Eagles, Doug Pedersen– One year removed from a fine Super Bowl season Pedersen has his team playing well of late.  Injuries early and a strong Super Bowl hangover contributed to a slow start.  Pedersen is but one good Nick Folks start away from a bona-fide QB controversy.  But, there are worse problems.  You could coach Buffalo for example.  Pedersen is good for a few years to come.

Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin– The Steelers are the definition of stability.  Tomlin is only the fourth head coach for the franchise since 1969.  That’s four in basically 50 years.   Compare that to the Cleveland Browns from the same AFC North Division.  Not counting four interim head men, they have burned through 15 head coaches in that span.  If they navigate the last two games they will head to the playoffs for the ninth time in his twelve strong years.

San Francisco 49ers, Kyle Shanahan– Shanahan is considered one of the new wave, new offense, bright minds of the game.  However, you don’t win consistently in the NFL if you don’t have a franchise type QB.  Whether Jimmy Garappolo is or is not one of those remains to be seen. But, until he is healthy the performance of the young head coach is a bit of an unknown.   A few NFL teams make the jump from bad to good each year.  It would not be too hard to build a case for them being one of those in 2019 under his guidance.

Seattle Seahawks, Pete Carroll– He may not look it, but Pete Carroll will celebrate birthday number 68 on 9/15/19.  You get the feeling that he still enjoys what he is doing and certainly shows no drop off in his approach.  He’s a good fit in the great northwest to boot.  A change here driven by a decision from either side would surprise.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dirk Koetter– Coach K is 19-27 cumulatively in year three with two meaningless games to go.  Dirk is coach number four since Chuckie bolted from the bay area ten years ago.  The results over that decade have been below average.  Koetter is averaging 6 and 1/2 wins a year.  His winning first season in 2016 seems so long ago.  Tampa Bay has QB issues.   Tampa Bay actually has bigtime QB issues.  We think Dirk Koetter gets shown the door after the Bucs close down another forgettable season.  We also think if he was named Kirk Doetter no one would notice.

Tennessee Titans, Mike Vrabel– Coach Vrabel has gone through some growing pains in year one.  His team has some talent.  They play hard.  They are relatively young and inexperienced.  So is Vrabel as the leading man.  You could see them all growing up together relatively soon.  Marcus Mariotta needs to take the next step next year as well.  They play in the suddenly tough AFC South.  Vrabel once was a tough linebacker.  He’ll have the chance to infuse that in his team for the coming years.

Washington Redskins, Jay Gruden– Jon Gruden’s brother has a tough job.  The Redskins have a meddlesome owner who knows little about big boy football.  This group incessantly over values free agents. Value wins.  Do they have a plan?  Have they ever had a plan?  If you toss out his first 4-12 year, Jay has coached the Skins to as many wins as losses for the next four.  He’s done that without QB stability especially this year as broken legs are plentiful in the nation’s capital.   That’s not too bad.   Will he return next year?  Only Daniel Snyder knows for sure.  Our hunch is that a change takes place.  Why do we think this way?  We flipped a coin.

Our guess is that two coaches of the eight above hit the bricks.  That brings the total tally to ten gone and 22 returning in our estimation.  By historical standards this isn’t out of line.  Surely there will be a surprise retention or two as well as a surprise firing or retiring or two.

In the NFL either you are getting better or you’re getting replaced.

 

 

 

Black Monday Shopping Starts Soon-part 3

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

There are just five shopping days left till Christmas.   However, if you are in the market, or soon will be, for a new head coach in the NFL Black Monday is fast approaching as well.  Black Monday is the day several coaches will get their pink slips.  This year it falls on New Year’s Eve.  What a way to end this year and ring in next it is.

Parts one and two predicted which franchises thought their coach was naughty and which were nice.  Time will tell.

Today we examine teams 17-24 alphabetically on our way to all 32 in our four-part series.

Los Angeles Chargers, Anthony Lynn– Put Lynn on the very short list of coach of the year candidates.  In year two he’s convinced 53 men to forget that no one in LA gives a rip about them and to just ball out in spite of that.  And ball out they have.   This balanced team has the talent and attitude to run deep in the playoffs.  If they weren’t so good we’d call them a dark horse for the Super Bowl.  It says here that the AFC is there for the taking.  Lynn is in.

Los Angeles Rams, Sean McVay– At least a few fickle LA fans give a rip about the Rams.  Oh, and the Rams ball out.  Last year was year one for the youngest coach in the league.  How did he do? He was named coach of the year!  In year he two has followed through nicely.  The Rams are currently the second seed for the NFC playoffs.  McVay’s star shines bright.

Miami Dolphins, Adam Gase–  Want to know the definition of average?  In almost three complete years Gase has guided the Dolphins to a 23-23 won/loss record.  They have one playoff berth and one playoff blowout loss to show for it.  It’s an average record for a team with below average talent playing in a below average division.  Their QB situation doesn’t help either.  We think that makes his performance slightly above average.  Gase should be safe.

Minnesota Vikings, Mike Zimmer– As year five of his Viking stint rolls on so does Mike Zimmer.  His win percentage of 60% (averages out to 9.6 wins per year) is impressive.  The Vikings assure themselves of a wild card spot this year if they win out.   He has two NFC North division winners on his resume’ as well.  All of this has been accomplished while Minnesota has played musical chairs at the QB spot.  Zimmer thinks D first and that has served him well.  His undisclosed contract extension, signed in late 2016, was a wise move by the Vikings ownership.

New England Patriots, Bill Belicheck–  Let’s move on to the New Orleans Saints.  Shall we?

New Orleans Saints, Sean Payton– Let’s move on to the New York Giants.  Shall we?

New York Giants, Pat Shurmur– Whew.  Welcome to the Big Apple Pat.   During Shurmur’s NFL coaching career he has been a part of eight playoff teams, winning six division crowns, and appearing in one Super Bowl.  His Uncle Fritz Shurmur coached in the NFL for 24 years too.  Pat will need to channel all of those positive experiences and learnings to change the culture in NY if he is to be successful.  Questions abound.  When do you part ways with Eli Manning?  What do you do with “me first” OBJ?  How do you fix an offensive line that is so bad that you cut two starters by mid-season?  Well, there is Saquan.  That’s one position that’s in fine shape of the 22.  Shurmur heads to year two with many questions.  He needs to provide answers and soon.  A New York minute isn’t too long.

New York Jets, Todd Bowles–   Les Miles once said that Death Valley, Tiger Stadium “is where opponents dreams come to die.”  The Jets organization is where coaches’ dreams come to die.  The Jets have bad ownership, bad execs, bad scouting, and a bad team.   And Bowles has not pulled any rabbits out of any Jet’s knit hats.  Throw in an angry fan base and you have a dumpster fire.  On December 29, 2017 the Jets organization announced that Bowles had been retained for the 2018 season, and signed an extension to continue as coach through 2020.  Do you assume that makes him safe for one more year?  Bowles has learned from some of the best and has been successful in several previous positions in the NFL. So, he will be fine long-term.  Does he stay or does he go?  We say he goes.

We have seven of the above eight retaining their jobs.  That makes our predictions stand at eight gone and 16 back for 2019 and counting.  We complete our thoughts about the comings and goings at the HC level tomorrow in part four.

Tell us what you think.

 

Black Monday Shopping Starts Soon- part 2

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Hurry, there are only six shopping days left till Christmas.   If you are in the market, or soon will be, for a new head coach in the NFL Black Monday is fast approaching as well.  Black Monday is the day several coaches will get their pink slips.  This year it falls on New Year’s Eve.  What a way to end this year and ring in next.

Part one of our commentary and predictions on which franchises thought their coach was naughty and which were nice posted yesterday.  Today we examine eight more teams on our way to all 32 in our four-part series.  And, we lead off with none other than America’s team.

Dallas Cowboys, Jason Garrett– How bout dem Cowboys?  To answer that question, we have a question.  Which Cowboy’s team are you asking about?  After a slow start Dallas used an efficient offense and a stingy defense to rip off five wins in a row including a convincing Thursday night win over the N.O. Saints two weeks back.  This past Sunday they scored exactly zero and allowed Indy’s run game to resemble a startled colt in an open field.  This season is a microcosm of the Jason Garrett tenure as their HC.  Up, down, up….  Normally impatient Jerry Jones has been patient for eight years with Garrett.  If they fall shy of a playoff berth this year his patience may have run its course.  A playoff berth and a “one and done” might not be enough either.  Who really knows?  It’s Jerry’s World.  We think a change is possible and borders on probable.  Kliff Kingsbury anyone?

Denver Broncos,Vance Joseph– Saturday’s home loss to Cleveland extinguished any playoff hopes that the now 6-8 Broncos had.  It likely extinguished the undistinguished two-year run that Vance Joseph has had at the helm.  The Broncos need better players and they need a better coach.   Vance Joseph, he of two first names, will add his name to the unemployed.

Detroit Lions, Matt Patricia– The pencil behind his ear makes him look a bit like one William Belicheck on the sidelines.  The beard and his team’s performance make him look like anything but Patriot Billy.  It’s year one for him.  If you are a Ford and your maiden name is Firestone, as the principal owner’s is, you must give Matt more time on the assembly line to improve on a 5-9 and counting first year record.  The winter always seems longer in Detroit right about now.

Green Bay Packers, Joe Philbin– Philbin took over for Mike McCarthy two weeks ago.  McCarthy had a long and successful run in Cheese Land.  But, as stated above, sometimes it’s just time.  This time the departure was hastened by the discord that festered between McCarthy and wonder boy Aaron Rodgers.  If you cannot get along with Aaron you cannot get along with anyone.  Um, well, that is true unless you are his family, his ex GF, or his ex coach of course.  Danica Patrick beware.   Philbin is (ph)illing in for two more weeks.  The winter suddenly seems longer in Wisconsin right about now.  The new coach will benefit from multiple 2019 draft picks and a franchise QB.  It’s a good spot.

Houston Texans, Bill O’Brien– Media and fans alike chuckled at the five-year, $25 million fat contract extension O’Brien got this past offseason prior to owner Bob McNair’s passing.   Who’s laughing now?  An 0-3 start has turned all the way around to a #2 seed if the playoffs began today.  Mr. McNair is smiling from above.  Bill and his smug attitude are in H Town for a while.

Indianapolis Colts, Frank Reich– Year one for Coach Reich has had a bit of everything.  He’s made a few questionable strategic moves at crunch time.  But, after a slow start, he has the team playing as one and in the hunt down the stretch.   A healthy Andrew Luck has helped.  Reich’s time in Indy is just beginning.

Jacksonville Jaguars, Doug Marrone– Well, well.  This is an enigma wrapped in a conundrum.   Marrone and his stingy D had Jacksonville one bad fourth quarter AFC Championship game away from a Super Bowl berth last year.  One year later and player outbursts, concentration penalties, a bad Blake Bortles extension, and several mail it in efforts define the lost year that 2018 is for them.  This is a tough call in only his second year.   He was fired once as a HC already as Buffalo shuffled him out.  Is it him or is it his players?  This franchise continually lacks continuity.  It would surprise no one if he was fired.  Our guess is that his success last year earned him one more try next year.

Kansas City Chiefs, Andy Reid–  Reid is one of the five best coaches in the NFL.  Period.  His resume’ speaks loudly.  What’s the high side?  Reid and Mahomes could go on a run like Belicheck and Brady if they field a legit D.  If they don’t they could go on a run like Payton and Brees.  Regardless, they will go on nice run even if Andy doesn’t look like a guy who enjoys running.  Reid, Mahomes, and KC BBQ is a nice combo platter.

The tally on our call on the above teams is three more out and five in.  That brings us to halftime with seven out and nine in.

The series rolls on tomorrow with part three.  Let us know what you think.

 

 

 

 

 

Black Monday Shopping Starts Soon.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Just seven shopping days are left till Christmas.  Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, and Cyber Monday have come and gone.  Like the retail industry, the NFL has labels for its events too.  There is Thursday Night Football, Monday Night Football, Super Bowl Sunday, The Scouting Combines, and Pro Workout Day to name but some.

But there is one day that the NFL doesn’t want labeled nor do they promote it.  There are just 13 days left till beleaguered teams officially start shopping for new head coaches.  Unofficially it’s called Black Monday.  It’s always the Monday after the regular season ends the day prior.  This year it falls on New Year’s Eve.  But, you can’t shop for a new coach till you fire the old coach.

Those owners (Cleveland and Green Bay) that have fired their head coach in season are joined by those that will on 12/31 in the search for who they hope will turn into the next great head coach.  For now they can make a shopping list and their GM’s can check it twice.  On 12/31 we will find out which teams decided to put a lump of coal in their coaches’ socks.  Rest assured some fates are sealed already and the proverbial string is being played out.   Some are hanging by a thread pending season ending meetings.  You can always count on one or two that you didn’t see coming.

Conversely some are quite stable.  Others are safe as they have just begun their stint with their current team.  Rome and the Buffalo Bills weren’t built in a day don’t you know?.  Finally, some are safe due to the frugality of their owners who prefer counting money to winning Super Bowls.

So, who’s in? Who’s out?  We’ll give you our take on all 32 teams and their head coaches over the next four days.  Here, in alphabetical order, are the first eight.

Arizona Cardinals, Steve Wilks – It’s year one for him.  This team is bad.  It really needs to get worse to get better.  Sell the assets and compile the draft picks.  He’s underwhelming.  If we were grading would give him an “I” for incomplete (like many Josh Rosen passes).  But, he’s safe.

Atlanta Falcons, Dan Quinn– This is Quinn’s first HC job.  It started off quite well and has been fading ever since they blew a 28-3 Super Bowl lead to New England after their stellar 2016 season.  Something isn’t right with this team.  That said you could see patient Arthur Blank giving him another year.  Arthur believes in his people to a fault as you may remember.   That said we see him ringing in 2019 jobless.

Baltimore Ravens, John Harbaugh– The whispers started several weeks back. “It’s time.”  Etc.  But this team is in line for a seventh playoff berth under his tenure.  He’s also 101 games and a Super Bowl here.  This would be a surprise.  He should be back if he wishes and we think he wishes.

Buffalo Bills, Sean McDermott– It’s hard to believe that this disorganized organization made a rare playoff appearance last year.  He’s 14-15 with year two almost in the books.  Personnel wise they are in the lower quartile of the league and their front office is in the bottom 10 percent.  No decision(Josh Allen anyone?) would shock anyone coming out of this hot garbage.   Sean stays for one more year.

Carolina Panthers, Ron Rivera–  He’s been to a Super Bowl, been AP Coach of the Year twice, been to four playoff births, and won 57% of the games he has led this team onto the field.  Meanwhile they seem to be limping to the close of 2018.  He’s done well, but we think he’s done in Charlotte.  He could easily be on other team’s short list to fill their vacancy if Carolina goes shopping.  One final note-new ownership in the last 6 months might want a new start as well.

Cleveland Browns, Gregg Williams (interim)–  Five games in as a midseason replacement for terminated Hue Jackson, feisty Gregg Williams is a quite respectable 4-2 in his audition. Cleveland leadership has promised Williams that he will get a fair shot in their replacement search.  The previous sentence used “Cleveland” and “leadership” in the same sentence.  We regret that nonsensical error.   Cleveland leads the NFL in bad hires, bad drafts, and bad ownership.  They have exactly zero playoff appearances since their NFL rebirth in 1999.  Count on a comical search for a new coach with comical results.

Chicago Bears, Matt Nagy– Year one has gone quite well for this first time head coach.  It’s gone so well that he might be Coach of the Year and the Bears might run deep in the playoffs.  The front office has built through the draft in an impressive fashion.  Nagy is obviously quite safe.

Cincinnati Bengals, Marvin Lewis–  Lewis has been at the helm in the Queen City since 2003.  Only Queen Elizabeth and Bill Belicheck, hired in 2000, have more years with their current team.  The comparison between the two should stop there however.  Lewis has been written off by many in years gone by.  With no playoff in sight this year it’s time for him to go bye-bye.  Sometimes it’s just time.  Sometimes its past time.  However, the Bengals are frugal and that’s being kind.  His contract is valid thru the close of 2019.  However, the guess here is that he’s gone.

So far that’s four gone and four not.  In the four-part series we’ll discuss another eight teams tomorrow.

We’ll also check in when the dust settles to review our predictions.  Let us know how you see it as well.