That the NFL is a money-making machine is of no surprise. It’s gross revenues, licensing deals, national and international reach, tv deals, and bottom line profitability make it one of the greatest brands this side of Coca Cola, nike, and Disney. The reasons are many. Stadium deals, fan loyalty, merchandise revenues, licenses, and expert marketing are some of the those reasons. But, the main reason why is that their product is king. How have they done it?
Ah, the sacred product. Remember when Coca Cola reinvented the formula for Coke and called it New Coke? The backlash, whiplash, and tongue lashing that they received was immediate and fierce. You would have thought Disney took the mouse ears off of Mickey.
Sure, the NFL has moved goal posts and hash marks over the years. And, it’s changed the rules on what is and is not a catch or is or is not a fumble roughly 43 times and counting. But, through it all, its team v team product has produced game, division, conference, and Super Bowl champion finishes that hold fan interest the world over. “Maybe next year” is a hope that has real meaning to many millions of fans.
But, how have they done it? While likely unintended, it’s modeled very similarly to the NASCAR season in a sense. NASCAR modified their rules years ago to restrict or limit nearly every aspect of the crew chiefs, pit crews, drivers, mechanics, and car and tire manufacturers influence from gaining any real advantage. The results of NASCAR races and its seasons since have much in common. Many cars compete in close proximity on the last lap at the same time. Gone for the most part are days when the leader is miles ahead of the pack. Similarly, the season long standings remain bunched with many drivers still in contention for being the year-long points leader and capturing all of the money, prizes and adulation that comes with it.
Similarly, in the NFL hope springs eternal. Each week games go to overtime, or decided on the last play, or in doubt in the last minute. Upsets (a column for another day) defined by the Vegas lines are the norm too. Division championships come down to the last weekend. Playoff seeds remain undetermined often till the last hours of the last regular season weekend. Lots of new teams come from nowhere and run deep in the playoffs.
NASCAR does it with all sorts of engine tweak limits and body restrictions. How does the NFL accomplish it?
It starts anew every spring in the NFL. First, the better your record was in the previous year the harder your strength of schedule is based on winning percentages of the year prior. The worse your record was last year the easier you are scheduled in the coming year.
Second, teams draft in the reverse order of their finish from the prior year. The better you are the later you pick and vice versa. With each drafted position slotted in a tight window of what teams can pay (afford), the cost to a team drafting the fifth player in a round isn’t much more at all than at team selecting the 25th for example. Importantly, this draft cap money is a rather small part of the total salary cap.
Third, free agency levels the playing field further. With each team operating under the exact same salary cap good players who become free agents command more money in the open market. Great teams have more good to great (real or perceived)players than not so good teams. Great teams, therefore, cannot afford to keep all of those that made them what they are and soon to be were.
Fourth, teams in bigger markets that generate way more revenue cannot spend proportionately more on payroll than smaller market teams filling needs on their roster. The salary cap rears it head again. Point three and this one have huge impacts. Ask MLB.
Fifth, a few years ago, concerned that some teams were taking the last game or two off to rest starters, the NFL adjusted its scheduling going forward. Everyone now plays mostly in division contests in the final regular season weeks. That adjustment insures most divisions are still undecided in December.
So, how is it working? Quite well. In the past five seasons, 18 teams have bounced back from a sub-.500 record to qualify for the playoffs. That’s an average of 3.6 per year. Last year five teams; the Eagles, Saints, Panthers, Rams, and Jaguars each went from positions near or at the bottom of their divisions to postseason berths.
Several more could make the turnaround in 2018. Last year’s participants are below.
2017-18 NFL Playoff Teams
AFC
- New England Patriots (13-3)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
- Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
- Tennessee Titans (9-7)
- Buffalo Bills (9-7)
NFC
- Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
- Minnesota Vikings (13-3)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- New Orleans Saints (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (11-5)
- Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
In 2018 Buffalo is done. Jacksonville is done. Atlanta is done. Carolina has lost five in a row and needs a major tune up. With three weeks to go Tennessee might need to win out to return. And, last year’s Super Bowl Champions, the Philadelphia Eagles need to win out and might need help from others to even attempt to defend. That’s six of last year’s twelve out or leaking oil all over the field.
Enter Dallas, Chicago, Seattle from the NFC as possible to probable playoff newcomers. In the AFC the mad dash is even more mad. San Diego and Houston look like they will join the party. At least one of Baltimore, Indianapolis and even Denver can crash it too.
Expect a minimum of six and maybe even seven newcomers to the second season’s hunt for the Lombardi Trophy.
True to years past that’s a lot of NFL teams “swapping paint” on the drive to the finish line. Plenty teams can see the checkered flag. But, the traffic is bad and there are lots of new drivers on the road.