Sports

Full Tilt

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Is it safe to say that three of the top 6-8 quarterbacks in the NFL are in the conference championship games this weekend?

We’re talking about Hurts, Burrow, and Mahomes of course.  Purdy has been a pretty good surprise, but the resume is quite light at this point.

That the AFC has two great QBs in the final two while the NFC has only one is no surprise either.  When you run down from great to not so regardless of the conference affiliation you’ll find that the AFC is stacked and the NFC is wanting.

Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Jackson, and Herbert are a strong top five for the AFC.  Throw in Lawrence, Tagovailoa, Watson, Jones, and Pickett as emerging upside types and the top ten is relatively equally as impressive.

Notice that absent from this AFC list are Wilson and Carr.

Wilson is a Super Bowl winner and a nine-time Pro Bowl selection who has thrown for over 40k yards.  He had a bad year and might be past his prime and then some, however.

Carr is a three-time Pro Bowler and amassed 35k passing yards.  He’s done being a Raider and might be headed to the NFC.

Ah, the NFC.

Any NFC list would start with Brady and Rodgers arguably the two best in the last 15 years regardless of the conference (sorry Drew Brees).

But, is Brady done with football?  Is Rodgers done with Green Bay?  Is Green Bay done with Rodgers?  Let’s go with no, yes, and yes for the sake of the following argument.

What if Brady replaced Carr in Vegas?  Whether you view Brady’s glass as half empty or half full it’s still better than half of the quarterbacks in the entire league.

What if Rodgers went to, say, the New York J-E-T-S?  Jets, Jets, Jets.   He’s still easily a top-ten NFL quarterback.

Those what if’s would tilt the AFC position of dominance at the most important position in football to an unprecedented level.

Compare all of the above to the NFC’s Hurts, Prescott, Cousins, Stafford, and Jones and you’ll see the tilt lite light up like the old 1970s pinball machines.

Throw in the next five who throw for NFC teams.  Goff, Wilson, Murray, Marietta, and, well, and, umm Geno Smith?  Jeez.

If you want to jump deeper into the imbalance fast forward to the NFL Draft this Spring.  The Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts, both AFC teams with picks # 2 and #4 respectively, will almost certainly draft high Round One QBs.

Bryce Young and CJ Stoud very likely will hear Roger Goodell announce that their immediate future will be in the AFC.

Super Bowls are won far more often with great quarterbacking than with complimentary quarterbacking.

The AFC is loaded with “win because of’s.”  The NFC is loaded with “win with and win in spite of’s.”

Jalen Hurts and Philly might put a hurting on the AFC in a few weeks.

After that, it looks like the AFC will put a hurting on the NFC for a few years.

 

 

Ten(12) Piece Nuggets-College Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s time to go football bowling.  We roll a perfect game with ten twelve strikes below.

  1.  It says here that the playoff committee got it exactly right and in the right order.  If Tennessee’s Hooker was healthy maybe they flip with Bama at five, but the point is moot for two reasons.  One, he isn’t.  Two, teams five and six aren’t in the top four regardless.
  2. Nick Saban’s campaign to enter the top four as the weekend’s bowling pins were falling his way was 1) his job, and 2) borderline groveling.  Comparing losses and near misses to another team’s “weaker wins” isn’t too becoming.  When Nick speaks, the media fawns.
  3. Another thing that isn’t becoming is Nick’s hair.  It’s dyed a near crimson tide red and fewer and fewer sit daily on his head.  Maybe old St Nick can gift Nick some plugs for his head similar in size to the ones he was making for his team.
  4. Clemson’s Dabo Swinney runs rapidly down the hill when his team enters the home field. It might be symbolic of the team’s direction. They lost two this year and could have easily lost two more. Former five-star Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei entered the transfer portal yesterday after an up-and-down two seasons as the starter.  Promising freshman Cade Klubnik takes over.
  5. Clemson squares off in the Orange Bowl against Tennessee which is missing its aforementioned former starter as well.  It’s one orange-clad team vs another orange-clad team in the aptly named Orange Bowl.
  6. USC went from a top-four playoff-bound team to a team bound for the day after New Year’s Cotton Bowl against upstart Tulane in a mere 48 hours. The one PM Monday kickoff in Arlington Texas, where it’s usually around 31 degrees and sleeting that time of the year is sure to attract dozens of USC So Cal-based fans.  Lincoln Riley will need to care about defense for USC to ascend higher.
  7. Meanwhile, it is refreshing to hear Willie Fritz, HC of Tulane, say out loud that he is staying put.  Tulane hasn’t been relevant in decades and if he bolted for greener money pastures the Green Wave could return to irrelevancy for decades to come.
  8. Sometimes the grass isn’t always greener anyway.  Scott Frost found that out after leaving a similar upstart in UCF for Nebraska.  Billy Napier was the hot name a year ago from ULL.  He hasn’t gained too many fans after a year in Gainsville.
  9. It’s amusing to hear the “experts” tell us that a certain conference is down this year or that year.  This always happens when traditionally strong teams lose more games than the “experts” thought they would.  For example, the Big 12 is down a bit this year.  It is?  TCU is in the final four dance.  Oklahoma and Texas failed to live up to what the “experts” thought they would do.  Perception and perspective.
  10. The PAC 12 failed to secure a playoff berth.  Again.  Its been six long years since 2016 when the left coast last participated.  Washington lost in the semis that year to Bama 24-7.
  11. It’s Army v. Navy this Saturday.  It doesn’t get better than that.
  12. The futures lines are out.  Georgia is -185, Michigan +220, THE Ohio St +310, and TCU +1300 to win it all.  The value looks to be in Michigan and TCU as one of them will get to the final game.

It’ll be a December to remember.  Don’t believe us?  Ask Lexus.

And with the transitory inflation, if you need a loan to purchase one we’re betting Capital One will advertise a time or two that they’re here to help.

What’s in your wallet?

Hopefully, it’s a ticket on Michigan to win it all.

 

Abby’s Picks

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Happy Friday.

Thanks to all who wrote to us concerned about Abby’s absence the last two Fridays.

She is fine.

However, we made a tough decision last week to send her down to the minors to work on her mound presence like some of her friends(pictured).  They’re tipping their pitches showing the ball way too early.

Her picks have made some of our readers poorer in a year that government recklessness has cut their 401k into a 201k.

She’s working on regaining that which she lost off of her fastball as well.

We wish her well in her future endeavors.

That’s it.  That’s the entire Friday post.

Except, Geaux Tigers!

Abby Picks, Year Five, Week Nine

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

President Joe Biden said yesterday that the average national price per gallon of gas is $3.39 compared to when he took office when it was over $5.00/gal.  Congrats Joe!

Applying similar creative math, Abby won all of her bets last week and even some that she didn’t make.  Congrats Abby!

However, upon further review, it looks like last week was a tough one.  Only one win vs six losses and eight bones dropped vs only two won tell the tale that’s wagging the dog.  She did cash in on the first hunch bet offered this year thanks to an angry Nick Saban.

Onward.

  1. East Carolina at BYU -3 –  BYU has gotten beat down three weeks in a row.  Provo gets loud tonight and the Cougars win going away.  One bone.
  2.  Illinois at Nebraska + 7 1/2 – How far have the once mighty fallen?  And, how far up have the downtrodden climbed?  The Cornhuskers will find a way to lose.  But they cover.  One bone.
  3. Kentucky + 11 1/2 at Tennessee –  Abby thinks Tennessee is very, very good.  She also thinks that they may be looking ahead to a week off and a tussle with Georgia on 11/5.   Will Levis please be healthy.  One bone.
  4.  TCU at West Virginia + 7 /12 and ML–  TCU is good.  But, they’ve been winning from behind and/or in OT for three weeks now.  Maybe they’re running on fumes a bit.  One bone on the point spread and one bone to win two bones straight up on the money line.
  5. Wake Forest -3 at Louisville –  Number 10 ranked WF is the team that no one talks about.  Their only loss is to Clemson in Clemson in overtime.  The Deamon Deacons’ offense puts up points by the minute.  Which Louisville team shows up?  Two bones.
  6. Northwestern at Iowa -11 and over 37 1/2 – To win the bet Abby needs Iowa to score at least 12 points.  This hasn’t been easy for the Hawkeyes’ inept offense all year.  They find a way at home Saturday.  Parlay two bones to win six bones.
  7.  Oregon at California +17 – The Golden Bears are at home and Oregon goes on the road after a big College Gameday home win over previously undefeated UCLA.  Abby likes dogs named Spot and likes this spot as well.  Two bones.

Jimbo and Texas A&M have been getting roasted in the media all week.   On a hunch, Abby likes the wounded and once proud Aggie underdogs at home ‘mad as hell” angle and getting 2 points versus Mississippi.

Woof!

How Bout Dem Boys?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

A known serial womanizer/assaulter squared off against a known massage parlor frequenter yesterday and the result was not a happy ending.

The NFL fall meetings took place in New York Tuesday.  And the fireworks were glorious.

The owner of the highest valued franchise, Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, exchanged a few heated words with the owner of the most historically successful franchise, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft.

The catalyst was a motion to permit the owner’s compensation committee to begin negotiations on a new deal with commissioner Roger Goodell.

Jerry Jones was the one dissenter in the 31-1 vote in favor of beginning.  He wants Goodell’s next contract to be more performance incentive-based and less salary guaranteed.

If Jones, as President and GM of the Cowboys, was compensated that way he would be far less wealthy than he is, but we digress.

Jones told Kraft, “don’t f… with me.”  Kraft uttered, “excuse me?”  And Jones countered with “don’t mess with me.”  What started this?  Does it matter?

Boys.  Boys!  BOYS!  How bout dem boys?

Billionaires arguing about a two-three hundred million dollar compensation package is unseemly.

But wait, there’s more.

Colts owner Jim Irsay contended out loud that he believes there’s “merit” to consider the removal of Dan Snyder from the Washington Commanders’ ownership.  In an effort to oust Snyder over a series of serious internal missteps that there is now an investigation into whether Snyder was actually privately investigating the other owners so that the dirty ones would have dirt on the other dirty ones.

What’s Snyder getting the most heat for?  The heat stems from a steamy boy’s club front office that serially harassed female employees when the Commanders were the Redskins.  He should get heat for running a once proud franchise straight into the Fed Ex Field dirt, but we digress again.

It seems that DeShaun Watson’s off-of-the-field dalliances should immediately qualify him for ownership once his playing days end.  Of course, the NFL will allow none of his bad behavior to go unpunished.  It tarnishes the image of the game.

We ask once more, “how bout dem boys?”

 

Abby Picks, Year Five, Week Seven

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby rebounded nicely after a two-week skid likely brought on by kennel cough-19.  She had no vaccines nor boosters, which by the day sounds like the better way to go.

Last week she got five games right and four wrong.  She won six bones and lost five.  Either you pay the man, or the man pays you.  The latter beats the former.

She paws forward to week seven.

Alabama at Tennessee under 66 and 1/2 –  Yes these are two fine offenses, but doggy has a hunch that Nick Saban wants to run the ball and play D.  Two bones.

Alabama at Tennessee ML–  Abby thinks Alabama wins the game, but cannot pass up a 2 to 1 money line when the ole blue tick hound runs across the checkerboard end zone.  One bone to win two bones.

Mississippi St at Kentucky +4 – This looks like two teams going in opposite directions.  Until this Saturday, that is.   Give Abby the home dog v the Bulldogs. One bone.

LSU at Florida -2 and 1/2 –  Abby says, “LSU is not a good football team, convince me otherwise.”  Two bones.

Clemson at FSU + 3 and 1/2–  The ML is tempting, but Abby wants the points if Clemson kicks a late FG to win it.  One bone.

USC at Utah -3– The Utes are make or break here.  Abby still thinks USC is overrated but a win in Utah will convince her otherwise.  One bone.

Kansas at Oklahoma -8 – How can the Sooners be favored over anyone by eight if you watched them the last three weeks.  Abby likes to zig when others zag as you know by now.  One bone.

Iowa St +16 at Texas- The Longhorns have a Qb and are moving in the right direction.  But 16 points is 16 points.  Two bones.

Washington St at Oregon St – 3 1/2 and under 52 1/2– It’s a Beaver parlay.  Build the dam.  One bone to win three bones.

Eight home, one road, one money line, one parlay, and two under.

One baseball note.  Yordon Alvarez is pretty good.

Woof!

 

 

 

 

 

Abby Picks, Year Five, Week Six

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Forgive Abby for last week’s poor picking.  She coughed up seven more bones than she won.   Hopefully, her bout with kennel cough has subsided this week.  She got a lot of rest, socially distanced herself, and wore a mask to help ensure a better outcome for her loyal betting patrons.

Week six features a lot of lines(pass) that could provide back door covers, so conservative is a word to the wise.

  1.  Nebraska -3 at Rutgers and Houston + 3 at Memphis –  Friday night lights usually favor the home team on a short week.  Road team Indy beating Denver last night in a real dog nap of a game gives us confidence in this parlay.  The Cornhuskers have pride and the Cougars are angry.   One bone to win three bones.
  2. Purdue +3 at Maryland and Louisville -3 at Virginia-  Two more roadies paired for multiple a multiple-bone payout.  Purdue is pretty good.  Virginia is bad. One bone to win three bones.
  3. South Carolina at Kentucky -6 – Kentucky played very well in Oxford but lost to a very good Rebel team.  South Carolina is on the road after hammering an instate directional school.  Abby likes the spot as much as the name Spot for a dog.  Two bones.
  4.  Florida St at NC State under 51 –  FSU and NC St both score plenty of points against lower-level competition.  When the going gets tough both tighten a bit.  One bone.
  5. Washington St + 13 1/2 at USC-  Can we pump the brakes on how great Lincoln Riley is?  The Oregon State game v USC is your tell for this one.  Expect USC to win but not cover.  One bone.
  6. Tennessee – 2 1/2 at LSU-  This is the surprise line of the week.  This is a lot of credit to LSU’s home stadium Death Valley and not near enough to Hendon Hooker.  Two bones.
  7. Arkansas +9 at Mississippi St- The Bulldogs bit the Aggies last week at home.  We expect another win but a close, perhaps overtime win vs. an angry Hog team.  One bone.

That’s seven out of eight road teams, nine bones wagered to win 13, and one under a total on the line this bounce-back weekend.

Woof!

 

Abby Picks, Year Five, Week Five

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby watched Scott Van Pelt’s “Bad Beats” ESPN segment last Monday night with great disinterest.  She dropped two games in the final seconds v the spread to fall just below .500 for the week.  Stuff happens.

This was after a great week 3, so all is well for the hound.  Pound for pound she likes a lot of what she sees this week.

  1. Tulane at Houston -2 1/2 – Friday Night Lights in Texas.  Dana Holgersen ripped the Cougars up one side and down the other after their mistake-filled lethargic effort v Rice last week.  Expect Houston to come out like their hair is on fire.  One bone.
  2. Michigan St +7 1/2 at Maryland and Purdue + 12 1/2 at Minnesota- The Big 10 Parlay of the Day.  Michigan St cannot be as bad as they looked last week, can they?  Minnesota cannot be as good as they looked last week, can they?  One bone to win three bones.
  3.  Iowa St -3 at Kansas – Dorothy Special – Head Coach Lance Leipold is a wizard and might find the yellow brick road filled with gold later this year.  But, don’t mistake Matt Campbell for the Tin Man.  He’s turned down more offers than you can count on one hand. Two bones.
  4. Kentucky at Ole Miss -7 –  This line looks like Vegas is screaming for you to take Kentucky.  Abby likes to zig when others zag.  One bone.
  5. Texas A&M ML +155 at Mississippi St –  The Aggies stumbled to another victory last week after Arkansas fumbled away what would have been a 21-0 lead.  Abby expects more of the same out of the Aggies this week with Reveille’s help.  Two bones to win three bones.
  6. Oklahoma -6 at TCU-  Abby has licked her chops for this game all week.  She expects the Sooners to win comfortably to erase the bad memory of last Saturday.  Two bones.
  7. LSU at Auburn +8 1/2 –  This yearly rivalry game always brings the unexpected.  Always.  Who would have thought LSU would be a road favorite by nearly 9 after they shot themselves in the foot 9 times v FSU a month ago?  LSU is minus four starters and Auburn has a dead man walking for a head coach.  Always. One bone.
  8. Georgia -14 (first half) at Missouri- Kirby Smart was smarting after his Dawgs slept through their win over Kent St. last week.  Georgia won’t be held back by a leash this week, especially in the first two quarters.  One bone.

Woof!!

 

Abby Picks, Year Five, Week Four

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

So much to say and no time to do so.  Abby is the guest ceremonial starter in a Florida golf tourney early this AM.  She got out strong last week winning seven bones, and now goes for more.

1. Baylor +3 at Iowa St- The Bears are built to travel well.  Expect a close one, but Baylor wins straight up.  One bone.

2.  Notre Dame +2 at North Carolina-  Abby likes the fight left in the Irish more than most.  One bone.

3.  Clemson at Wake Forest +7–  Abby thinks that Clemson is looking for a place to lie down.  She found it for them.  One bone.

4.  Florida at Tennessee – 10 1/2–  This line seems out of line.  Florida plus looks like easy money.  Abby will zig when others zag.  One bone.

5.  Texas A&M v Arkansas over 48–  A&M can’t score and Arkansas has a good D.  Zig #2.  Two bones.

On a hunch take the Ducks -6 and 1/2 at Wash St.

Time to yell fore!!!

Woof!

Abby Picks, Year 5, Week 3

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Like a smart thoroughbred, Abby saved ground around the first two turns, and let the amateurs battle it out with Vegas.  Now, she is an entry in week three and sees an opening in the field.  She starts off her season with a few winners below.

  1. FSU -1 1/2 @ Louisville-To have a little Friday action, she thinks that FSU might have turned the proverbial corner.  Tonight’s game in Louisville will be a tell.  FSU for one bone.
  2.  Georgia @ South Carolina + 25 1/2- Georgia is suddenly getting Alabama-like respect from Vegas.  USCe is getting no respect at all.  Call it the Rodney Dangerfield pick of the week.  USCe for one bone.
  3. Penn St @ Auburn +3 1/2 and Vanderbilt + 2 1/2 @ Northern Illinois-  Getting SEC schools and points is like throwing bones at Abby.  She’ll take them both and pair them in an SEC parlay.  Auburn and Vandy for one bone to win three bones.
  4.  Oregon -3 v. BYU- Oregon lost by 46 to Georgia and beat Eastern Washington by 56.  Does that mean Georgia would beat Eastern Wash by 102?  Maybe.  The Ducks need to win tomorrow night by only 4.  Oregon for one bone.
  5. Marshall @ Bowling Green +16 1/2–  This is a pure letdown and an on-the-road bet against Marshall.  Do you know what South Bend, IN, and Bowling Green, OH have in common?  Nothing.  No respect at all.  Go Bowling for two bones.
  6. Miami @ Texas A&M -6 1/2-  This is a pure “given up for dead” bet for A&M.  App St took A&M’s lunch money last week in College Station.  If only they would have taken their yell leaders as well.  Aggies for three bones.

Hop on these bets now and you’ll win at least enough to hop on a free flight to Martha’s Vineyard next week.

Woof!