There are just four shopping days left till Christmas including the madhouse that you will find out there this weekend.  However, if you are in the marketfor a new head coach in the NFL, Black Monday is fast approaching as well.  It’s a madhouse too.  Black Monday is the day several coaches will get their pink slips.  This year it falls on New Year’s Eve.  What a way to end this year and ring in next.

Parts one,  two, and three predicted which franchises thought their coach was naughty and which were nice on 24 teams.  Personnel decisions are always part art and part science.

Today we examine the last eight teams of the 32 in our four-part series.  We begin with the team that will call Vegas its new home one day soon.  As Chris Berman refers to them, “da Radas!”

Oakland Raiders, Jon Gruden–  Want to know who is calling the shots here?  It’s the guy with the ten-year guaranteed contract that traded off his best assets to garner future draft picks.  You need a hint?  It’s not GM Reggie McKenzie who was fired last week.  It’s the guy with the bad haircut.  No, it’s not the owner, Mark Davis.  It’s Jon Gruden, aka Chuckie.  Chuckie’s contract makes him one of the safest bets in our feature.  And you were told there was no such thing as a safe bet in Vegas.

Philadelphia Eagles, Doug Pedersen– One year removed from a fine Super Bowl season Pedersen has his team playing well of late.  Injuries early and a strong Super Bowl hangover contributed to a slow start.  Pedersen is but one good Nick Folks start away from a bona-fide QB controversy.  But, there are worse problems.  You could coach Buffalo for example.  Pedersen is good for a few years to come.

Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin– The Steelers are the definition of stability.  Tomlin is only the fourth head coach for the franchise since 1969.  That’s four in basically 50 years.   Compare that to the Cleveland Browns from the same AFC North Division.  Not counting four interim head men, they have burned through 15 head coaches in that span.  If they navigate the last two games they will head to the playoffs for the ninth time in his twelve strong years.

San Francisco 49ers, Kyle Shanahan– Shanahan is considered one of the new wave, new offense, bright minds of the game.  However, you don’t win consistently in the NFL if you don’t have a franchise type QB.  Whether Jimmy Garappolo is or is not one of those remains to be seen. But, until he is healthy the performance of the young head coach is a bit of an unknown.   A few NFL teams make the jump from bad to good each year.  It would not be too hard to build a case for them being one of those in 2019 under his guidance.

Seattle Seahawks, Pete Carroll– He may not look it, but Pete Carroll will celebrate birthday number 68 on 9/15/19.  You get the feeling that he still enjoys what he is doing and certainly shows no drop off in his approach.  He’s a good fit in the great northwest to boot.  A change here driven by a decision from either side would surprise.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dirk Koetter– Coach K is 19-27 cumulatively in year three with two meaningless games to go.  Dirk is coach number four since Chuckie bolted from the bay area ten years ago.  The results over that decade have been below average.  Koetter is averaging 6 and 1/2 wins a year.  His winning first season in 2016 seems so long ago.  Tampa Bay has QB issues.   Tampa Bay actually has bigtime QB issues.  We think Dirk Koetter gets shown the door after the Bucs close down another forgettable season.  We also think if he was named Kirk Doetter no one would notice.

Tennessee Titans, Mike Vrabel– Coach Vrabel has gone through some growing pains in year one.  His team has some talent.  They play hard.  They are relatively young and inexperienced.  So is Vrabel as the leading man.  You could see them all growing up together relatively soon.  Marcus Mariotta needs to take the next step next year as well.  They play in the suddenly tough AFC South.  Vrabel once was a tough linebacker.  He’ll have the chance to infuse that in his team for the coming years.

Washington Redskins, Jay Gruden– Jon Gruden’s brother has a tough job.  The Redskins have a meddlesome owner who knows little about big boy football.  This group incessantly over values free agents. Value wins.  Do they have a plan?  Have they ever had a plan?  If you toss out his first 4-12 year, Jay has coached the Skins to as many wins as losses for the next four.  He’s done that without QB stability especially this year as broken legs are plentiful in the nation’s capital.   That’s not too bad.   Will he return next year?  Only Daniel Snyder knows for sure.  Our hunch is that a change takes place.  Why do we think this way?  We flipped a coin.

Our guess is that two coaches of the eight above hit the bricks.  That brings the total tally to ten gone and 22 returning in our estimation.  By historical standards this isn’t out of line.  Surely there will be a surprise retention or two as well as a surprise firing or retiring or two.

In the NFL either you are getting better or you’re getting replaced.

There are just five shopping days left till Christmas.   However, if you are in the market, or soon will be, for a new head coach in the NFL Black Monday is fast approaching as well.  Black Monday is the day several coaches will get their pink slips.  This year it falls on New Year’s Eve.  What a way to end this year and ring in next it is.

Parts one and two predicted which franchises thought their coach was naughty and which were nice.  Time will tell.

Today we examine teams 17-24 alphabetically on our way to all 32 in our four-part series.

Los Angeles Chargers, Anthony Lynn– Put Lynn on the very short list of coach of the year candidates.  In year two he’s convinced 53 men to forget that no one in LA gives a rip about them and to just ball out in spite of that.  And ball out they have.   This balanced team has the talent and attitude to run deep in the playoffs.  If they weren’t so good we’d call them a dark horse for the Super Bowl.  It says here that the AFC is there for the taking.  Lynn is in.

Los Angeles Rams, Sean McVay– At least a few fickle LA fans give a rip about the Rams.  Oh, and the Rams ball out.  Last year was year one for the youngest coach in the league.  How did he do? He was named coach of the year!  In year he two has followed through nicely.  The Rams are currently the second seed for the NFC playoffs.  McVay’s star shines bright.

Miami Dolphins, Adam Gase–  Want to know the definition of average?  In almost three complete years Gase has guided the Dolphins to a 23-23 won/loss record.  They have one playoff berth and one playoff blowout loss to show for it.  It’s an average record for a team with below average talent playing in a below average division.  Their QB situation doesn’t help either.  We think that makes his performance slightly above average.  Gase should be safe.

Minnesota Vikings, Mike Zimmer– As year five of his Viking stint rolls on so does Mike Zimmer.  His win percentage of 60% (averages out to 9.6 wins per year) is impressive.  The Vikings assure themselves of a wild card spot this year if they win out.   He has two NFC North division winners on his resume’ as well.  All of this has been accomplished while Minnesota has played musical chairs at the QB spot.  Zimmer thinks D first and that has served him well.  His undisclosed contract extension, signed in late 2016, was a wise move by the Vikings ownership.

New England Patriots, Bill Belicheck–  Let’s move on to the New Orleans Saints.  Shall we?

New Orleans Saints, Sean Payton– Let’s move on to the New York Giants.  Shall we?

New York Giants, Pat Shurmur– Whew.  Welcome to the Big Apple Pat.   During Shurmur’s NFL coaching career he has been a part of eight playoff teams, winning six division crowns, and appearing in one Super Bowl.  His Uncle Fritz Shurmur coached in the NFL for 24 years too.  Pat will need to channel all of those positive experiences and learnings to change the culture in NY if he is to be successful.  Questions abound.  When do you part ways with Eli Manning?  What do you do with “me first” OBJ?  How do you fix an offensive line that is so bad that you cut two starters by mid-season?  Well, there is Saquan.  That’s one position that’s in fine shape of the 22.  Shurmur heads to year two with many questions.  He needs to provide answers and soon.  A New York minute isn’t too long.

New York Jets, Todd Bowles–   Les Miles once said that Death Valley, Tiger Stadium “is where opponents dreams come to die.”  The Jets organization is where coaches’ dreams come to die.  The Jets have bad ownership, bad execs, bad scouting, and a bad team.   And Bowles has not pulled any rabbits out of any Jet’s knit hats.  Throw in an angry fan base and you have a dumpster fire.  On December 29, 2017 the Jets organization announced that Bowles had been retained for the 2018 season, and signed an extension to continue as coach through 2020.  Do you assume that makes him safe for one more year?  Bowles has learned from some of the best and has been successful in several previous positions in the NFL. So, he will be fine long-term.  Does he stay or does he go?  We say he goes.

We have seven of the above eight retaining their jobs.  That makes our predictions stand at eight gone and 16 back for 2019 and counting.  We complete our thoughts about the comings and goings at the HC level tomorrow in part four.

Tell us what you think.

Hurry, there are only six shopping days left till Christmas.   If you are in the market, or soon will be, for a new head coach in the NFL Black Monday is fast approaching as well.  Black Monday is the day several coaches will get their pink slips.  This year it falls on New Year’s Eve.  What a way to end this year and ring in next.

Part one of our commentary and predictions on which franchises thought their coach was naughty and which were nice posted yesterday.  Today we examine eight more teams on our way to all 32 in our four-part series.  And, we lead off with none other than America’s team.

Dallas Cowboys, Jason Garrett– How bout dem Cowboys?  To answer that question, we have a question.  Which Cowboy’s team are you asking about?  After a slow start Dallas used an efficient offense and a stingy defense to rip off five wins in a row including a convincing Thursday night win over the N.O. Saints two weeks back.  This past Sunday they scored exactly zero and allowed Indy’s run game to resemble a startled colt in an open field.  This season is a microcosm of the Jason Garrett tenure as their HC.  Up, down, up….  Normally impatient Jerry Jones has been patient for eight years with Garrett.  If they fall shy of a playoff berth this year his patience may have run its course.  A playoff berth and a “one and done” might not be enough either.  Who really knows?  It’s Jerry’s World.  We think a change is possible and borders on probable.  Kliff Kingsbury anyone?

Denver Broncos,Vance Joseph– Saturday’s home loss to Cleveland extinguished any playoff hopes that the now 6-8 Broncos had.  It likely extinguished the undistinguished two-year run that Vance Joseph has had at the helm.  The Broncos need better players and they need a better coach.   Vance Joseph, he of two first names, will add his name to the unemployed.

Detroit Lions, Matt Patricia– The pencil behind his ear makes him look a bit like one William Belicheck on the sidelines.  The beard and his team’s performance make him look like anything but Patriot Billy.  It’s year one for him.  If you are a Ford and your maiden name is Firestone, as the principal owner’s is, you must give Matt more time on the assembly line to improve on a 5-9 and counting first year record.  The winter always seems longer in Detroit right about now.

Green Bay Packers, Joe Philbin– Philbin took over for Mike McCarthy two weeks ago.  McCarthy had a long and successful run in Cheese Land.  But, as stated above, sometimes it’s just time.  This time the departure was hastened by the discord that festered between McCarthy and wonder boy Aaron Rodgers.  If you cannot get along with Aaron you cannot get along with anyone.  Um, well, that is true unless you are his family, his ex GF, or his ex coach of course.  Danica Patrick beware.   Philbin is (ph)illing in for two more weeks.  The winter suddenly seems longer in Wisconsin right about now.  The new coach will benefit from multiple 2019 draft picks and a franchise QB.  It’s a good spot.

Houston Texans, Bill O’Brien– Media and fans alike chuckled at the five-year, $25 million fat contract extension O’Brien got this past offseason prior to owner Bob McNair’s passing.   Who’s laughing now?  An 0-3 start has turned all the way around to a #2 seed if the playoffs began today.  Mr. McNair is smiling from above.  Bill and his smug attitude are in H Town for a while.

Indianapolis Colts, Frank Reich– Year one for Coach Reich has had a bit of everything.  He’s made a few questionable strategic moves at crunch time.  But, after a slow start, he has the team playing as one and in the hunt down the stretch.   A healthy Andrew Luck has helped.  Reich’s time in Indy is just beginning.

Jacksonville Jaguars, Doug Marrone– Well, well.  This is an enigma wrapped in a conundrum.   Marrone and his stingy D had Jacksonville one bad fourth quarter AFC Championship game away from a Super Bowl berth last year.  One year later and player outbursts, concentration penalties, a bad Blake Bortles extension, and several mail it in efforts define the lost year that 2018 is for them.  This is a tough call in only his second year.   He was fired once as a HC already as Buffalo shuffled him out.  Is it him or is it his players?  This franchise continually lacks continuity.  It would surprise no one if he was fired.  Our guess is that his success last year earned him one more try next year.

Kansas City Chiefs, Andy Reid–  Reid is one of the five best coaches in the NFL.  Period.  His resume’ speaks loudly.  What’s the high side?  Reid and Mahomes could go on a run like Belicheck and Brady if they field a legit D.  If they don’t they could go on a run like Payton and Brees.  Regardless, they will go on nice run even if Andy doesn’t look like a guy who enjoys running.  Reid, Mahomes, and KC BBQ is a nice combo platter.

The tally on our call on the above teams is three more out and five in.  That brings us to halftime with seven out and nine in.

The series rolls on tomorrow with part three.  Let us know what you think.

Just seven shopping days are left till Christmas.  Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, and Cyber Monday have come and gone.  Like the retail industry, the NFL has labels for its events too.  There is Thursday Night Football, Monday Night Football, Super Bowl Sunday, The Scouting Combines, and Pro Workout Day to name but some.

But there is one day that the NFL doesn’t want labeled nor do they promote it.  There are just 13 days left till beleaguered teams officially start shopping for new head coaches.  Unofficially it’s called Black Monday.  It’s always the Monday after the regular season ends the day prior.  This year it falls on New Year’s Eve.  But, you can’t shop for a new coach till you fire the old coach.

Those owners (Cleveland and Green Bay) that have fired their head coach in season are joined by those that will on 12/31 in the search for who they hope will turn into the next great head coach.  For now they can make a shopping list and their GM’s can check it twice.  On 12/31 we will find out which teams decided to put a lump of coal in their coaches’ socks.  Rest assured some fates are sealed already and the proverbial string is being played out.   Some are hanging by a thread pending season ending meetings.  You can always count on one or two that you didn’t see coming.

Conversely some are quite stable.  Others are safe as they have just begun their stint with their current team.  Rome and the Buffalo Bills weren’t built in a day don’t you know?.  Finally, some are safe due to the frugality of their owners who prefer counting money to winning Super Bowls.

So, who’s in? Who’s out?  We’ll give you our take on all 32 teams and their head coaches over the next four days.  Here, in alphabetical order, are the first eight.

Arizona Cardinals, Steve Wilks – It’s year one for him.  This team is bad.  It really needs to get worse to get better.  Sell the assets and compile the draft picks.  He’s underwhelming.  If we were grading would give him an “I” for incomplete (like many Josh Rosen passes).  But, he’s safe.

Atlanta Falcons, Dan Quinn– This is Quinn’s first HC job.  It started off quite well and has been fading ever since they blew a 28-3 Super Bowl lead to New England after their stellar 2016 season.  Something isn’t right with this team.  That said you could see patient Arthur Blank giving him another year.  Arthur believes in his people to a fault as you may remember.   That said we see him ringing in 2019 jobless.

Baltimore Ravens, John Harbaugh– The whispers started several weeks back. “It’s time.”  Etc.  But this team is in line for a seventh playoff berth under his tenure.  He’s also 101 games and a Super Bowl here.  This would be a surprise.  He should be back if he wishes and we think he wishes.

Buffalo Bills, Sean McDermott– It’s hard to believe that this disorganized organization made a rare playoff appearance last year.  He’s 14-15 with year two almost in the books.  Personnel wise they are in the lower quartile of the league and their front office is in the bottom 10 percent.  No decision(Josh Allen anyone?) would shock anyone coming out of this hot garbage.   Sean stays for one more year.

Carolina Panthers, Ron Rivera–  He’s been to a Super Bowl, been AP Coach of the Year twice, been to four playoff births, and won 57% of the games he has led this team onto the field.  Meanwhile they seem to be limping to the close of 2018.  He’s done well, but we think he’s done in Charlotte.  He could easily be on other team’s short list to fill their vacancy if Carolina goes shopping.  One final note-new ownership in the last 6 months might want a new start as well.

Cleveland Browns, Gregg Williams (interim)–  Five games in as a midseason replacement for terminated Hue Jackson, feisty Gregg Williams is a quite respectable 4-2 in his audition. Cleveland leadership has promised Williams that he will get a fair shot in their replacement search.  The previous sentence used “Cleveland” and “leadership” in the same sentence.  We regret that nonsensical error.   Cleveland leads the NFL in bad hires, bad drafts, and bad ownership.  They have exactly zero playoff appearances since their NFL rebirth in 1999.  Count on a comical search for a new coach with comical results.

Chicago Bears, Matt Nagy– Year one has gone quite well for this first time head coach.  It’s gone so well that he might be Coach of the Year and the Bears might run deep in the playoffs.  The front office has built through the draft in an impressive fashion.  Nagy is obviously quite safe.

Cincinnati Bengals, Marvin Lewis–  Lewis has been at the helm in the Queen City since 2003.  Only Queen Elizabeth and Bill Belicheck, hired in 2000, have more years with their current team.  The comparison between the two should stop there however.  Lewis has been written off by many in years gone by.  With no playoff in sight this year it’s time for him to go bye-bye.  Sometimes it’s just time.  Sometimes its past time.  However, the Bengals are frugal and that’s being kind.  His contract is valid thru the close of 2019.  However, the guess here is that he’s gone.

So far that’s four gone and four not.  In the four-part series we’ll discuss another eight teams tomorrow.

We’ll also check in when the dust settles to review our predictions.  Let us know how you see it as well.

That the NFL is a money-making machine is of no surprise.  It’s gross revenues, licensing deals, national and international reach, tv deals, and bottom line profitability make it one of the greatest brands this side of Coca Cola, nike, and Disney.  The reasons are many.  Stadium deals, fan loyalty, merchandise revenues, licenses, and expert marketing are some of the those reasons.  But, the main reason why is that their product is king.   How have they done it?

Ah, the sacred product.  Remember when Coca Cola reinvented the formula for Coke and called it New Coke?  The backlash, whiplash, and tongue lashing that they received was immediate and fierce.  You would have thought Disney took the mouse ears off of Mickey.

Sure, the NFL has moved goal posts and hash marks over the years.  And, it’s changed the rules on what is and is not a catch or is or is not a fumble roughly 43 times and counting.  But, through it all, its team v team product has produced game, division, conference, and Super Bowl champion finishes that hold fan interest the world over. “Maybe next year” is a hope that has real meaning to many millions of fans.

But, how have they done it?  While likely unintended, it’s modeled very similarly to the NASCAR season in a sense.  NASCAR modified their rules years ago to restrict or limit nearly every aspect of the crew chiefs, pit crews, drivers, mechanics, and car and tire manufacturers influence from gaining any real advantage.  The results of NASCAR races and its seasons since have much in common.  Many cars compete in close proximity on the last lap at the same time.  Gone for the most part are days when the leader is miles ahead of the pack.  Similarly, the season long standings remain bunched with many drivers still in contention for being the year-long points leader and capturing all of the money, prizes and adulation that comes with it.

Similarly, in the NFL hope springs eternal.  Each week games go to overtime, or decided on the last play, or in doubt in the last minute.  Upsets (a column for another day) defined by the Vegas lines are the norm too.  Division championships come down to the last weekend.  Playoff seeds remain undetermined often till the last hours of the last regular season weekend. Lots of new teams come from nowhere and run deep in the playoffs.

NASCAR does it with all sorts of engine tweak limits and body restrictions.  How does the NFL accomplish it?

It starts anew every spring in the NFL. First, the better your record was in the previous year the harder your strength of schedule is based on winning percentages of the year prior.  The worse your record was last year the easier you are scheduled in the coming year.

Second, teams draft in the reverse order of their finish from the prior year.  The better you are the later you pick and vice versa.  With each drafted position slotted in a tight window of what teams can pay (afford), the cost to a team drafting the fifth player in a round isn’t much more at all than at team selecting the 25th for example.  Importantly, this draft cap money is a rather small part of the total salary cap.

Third, free agency levels the playing field further.  With each team operating under the exact same salary cap good players who become free agents command more money in the open market.  Great teams have more good to great (real or perceived)players than not so good teams.   Great teams, therefore, cannot afford to keep all of those that made them what they are and soon to be were.

Fourth, teams in bigger markets that generate way more revenue cannot spend proportionately more on payroll than smaller market teams filling needs on their roster.  The salary cap rears it head again.  Point three and this one have huge impacts.  Ask MLB.

Fifth, a few years ago, concerned that some teams were taking the last game or two off to rest starters, the NFL adjusted its scheduling going forward.  Everyone now plays mostly in division contests in the final regular season weeks.  That adjustment insures most divisions are still undecided in December.

So, how is it working?  Quite well.  In the past five seasons, 18 teams have bounced back from a sub-.500 record to qualify for the playoffs. That’s an average of 3.6 per year.  Last year five teams; the Eagles, Saints, Panthers, Rams, and Jaguars each went from positions near or at the bottom of their divisions to postseason berths.

Several more could make the turnaround in 2018.  Last year’s participants are below.

2017-18 NFL Playoff Teams

AFC 

1. New England Patriots (13-3)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
5. Tennessee Titans (9-7)
6. Buffalo Bills (9-7)

NFC

1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
2. Minnesota Vikings (13-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
4. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
5. Carolina Panthers (11-5)
6. Atlanta Falcons (10-6)

In 2018 Buffalo is done.  Jacksonville is done.  Atlanta is done.  Carolina has lost five in a row and needs a major tune up.  With three weeks to go Tennessee might need to win out to return.  And, last year’s Super Bowl Champions, the Philadelphia Eagles need to win out and might need help from others to even attempt to defend.  That’s six of last year’s twelve out or leaking oil all over the field.

Enter Dallas, Chicago, Seattle from the NFC as possible to probable playoff newcomers.  In the AFC the mad dash is even more mad.  San Diego and Houston look like they will join the party.  At least one of Baltimore, Indianapolis and even Denver can crash it too.

Expect a minimum of six and maybe even seven newcomers to the second season’s hunt for the Lombardi Trophy.

True to years past that’s a lot of NFL teams “swapping paint” on the drive to the finish line.  Plenty teams can see the checkered flag.  But, the traffic is bad and there are lots of new drivers on the road.