Sports

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 13

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

NCAA football, we hardly knew you.  Time flys.

This Saturday wraps up another college football regular season.  Abby might weigh in on a bowl or playoff game or two, but she makes her money in the regular season.

A breakeven week last week (one more won than lost, but Vegas collected the juice) puts her season longs at 47 wins and 34 losses and 67 bones won with 48 bones lost.  The hunch took its 3rd punch (Michigan St scored a whopping 7 so the total of 63 was under by 5) and stands at 8-3.

It’s always better to be a wary bettor during rivalry week.  The pickings look slim.

  1. Iowa at Nebraska + 1 1/2 — Frost’s team hasn’t quit.  They counterpunched Wisconsin to the wire last week.  This week they win at the wire.  Two bones.
  2. Cincinnati at East Carolina +14 1/2 —  Cincy and head coach Luke Fickell control their own playoff entry destiny. Can E Carolina ruin that?  No, but they can cover two touchdowns at home.  One bone.
  3. Kentucky at Louisville -3 — Like Nebraska, Louisville has played a handful of tough opponents close.  Saturday they get it done against a solid bunch of Wildcats.  One bone.
  4. Wisconsin at Minnesota +7 1/2 —  A straight-up win by the Golden Gophers would not shock Abby.  Wisconsin usually has a late-season “huh?” game.  If Whisky goes flat out for 60, this bet won’t hold up.  One bone.
  5. Oklahoma at Oklahoma St – 4 1/2  — Okie St has beaten their last five opponents by a 165-44 combined total and is peaking late.  Oklahoma has sputtered of late.  Vegas is begging John Q. Public to take Oklahoma.  Abby will take the zig on the zag.  One bone.

Vegas is fading Lincoln Riley as the next LSU coach.  He’s now +1000 in Vegas.  On a hunch, Abby will take Lincoln Riley announced Sunday as the next LSU head coach.    One bone to win ten bones.

Six bones, five home teams, three dogs, two chalks, and one longshot Lincoln.

Woof!

 

Editor’s note:  BBR is taking a four-day holiday starting roughly right now.

 

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 12

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s that time of the year.  Some great NCAA head coaching opportunities have opened making the coaching carousel go around faster and faster.

Website prognostication opportunities are much the same.  If you’re the top dog, you get paid the top dollar.

Accordingly, Abby released the following statement.

“Woof.  Woof.  It’s been a good year.  There is much work to do in the final two regular-season weeks as well as conference championships, bowls, and playoffs.  My focus is solely on the bones at hand.  BBR is not my doghouse, it’s my dog home.  We have games to analyze and pick.  I’m very happy here at BBR and intend on being here for a long time.  Thank you.  Bow wow!!”

Another winning week last week puts her squarely on top of the dogpile.  The won/loss is 42-30, and the bones are 61-42.  The hunch bombed, but the record is salty at 8-2.

  1.  Memphis at Houston -8 —  Houston is hammering the competition after a slower than expected start.  Memphis will keep it interesting for three quarters.  Lookout Cincy in the American Athletic Conference Championship game in two weeks.  One bone.
  2.  Florida -9 at Missouri —  The sky is falling.  Throw Mullen out like the bum that he is.  This looks like a good zig on a zag.  Two bones.
  3.  Texas +3 at West Virginia — The sky is falling part 2.  Throw Sarkesian out like the bum that he is.  This looks like a good zig on a zag part 2.  Two bones.
  4.  ULL +4 1/2 at Liberty —  Abby likes the Cajuns straight up but will take the points.  Will Billy Napier move 50 miles east soon?  One bone.
  5.  Nebraska + 9 1/2 at Wisconsin  — Whisky has been rolling for seven weeks after a slow start.    They are double tough at Camp Randall.  The under looks tempting as well.  Whisky wins, but it’s only by a shot glass or two.  Two bones.
  6.  UCLA -3 at USC —  UCLA has covered in four road games.  USC has not but in one home game.  The best team and the one that has anything to play for is the Bruins.  One bone.
  7. UAB +5 at UTSA — Name the only three undefeated teams left in college football.  Georgia, Cincinnatti, and UTSA.  Fear the Roadrunners.  It’s been a great run.  But.  One bone.
  8. Wyoming at Utah St – 5 1/2 —  Utah St has the Mountain West Championship Game in its sights.  Two speed bumps remain.  Wyoming is one of them.  One bone.
  9.  Baylor at Kansas St. -1 —  Wildcats are playing well.  Baylor is playing very well.  Are the Bears a bit hungover from the big win over Oklahoma?  It’s a classic letdown spot.  Abby points out that K St hasn’t beaten a ranked team all year.  Till now.  One bone.

In Columbus, THE Ohio St hosts Michigan St.  The total is 68 points.  That sounds very high.  Vegas is telling us something.  The hunch bet tries to bounce back and will take the over.

Six road teams, five chalks, four road dogs.

Woof!

 

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 11

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

For the third time in ten weeks Abby had to pay the man.  When you lose 6 bones ($66) and win 4 ($40) you slowly run out of money unless you are the US government.

Luckily for Abby the year-to-date totals still look good, so she doesn’t need a paw out (aka handout).   Ten weeks deep her won-loss record is 37-27, the bones won are 55 v 38 surrendered.

We must give a special shoutout on her hunch bet.  She took  Army v Air Force under the thirty-seven points total.  The game went to overtime and the under still won the day.  The hunch stands tall like the soldiers that competed at 8-1 for the season.

  1. West Virginia at Kansas St -6 –K St at home is a significantly better team than on the road.  WV on the road is a significantly worse team than at home.  One bone.
  2.  Michigan at Penn St under 49 — This feels like a game that a late field goal wins it somewhere in the 20-17 range.  Woody Hayes didn’t like either of these teams but would like the three yards and a pile of dirt scrum.  One bone.
  3.  Notre Dame -5 1/2 at Virginia —  ND has had some closes finishes.  This one covers late, however.  Two bones.
  4. Oklahoma at Baylor under 62 — Abby’ll bite. This one almost seems too good.   Aranda will have them ready to defend the Okla O.   One bone.
  5.  NC State at Wake Forest -1 — Will Wake be hungover from the sting of the Tarheel come from behind victory? Maybe for a series or two.  That O can go.  One bone.
  6. Stanford + 12 at Oregon St —  Abby’ll bite again.  This line seems so out of whack that normally she would take the zig.  But 12 points and the Cardinal seems too juicy.  One bone.
  7. Mississippi St at Auburn -5 — Auburn went to College Station and got stuffed.  We smell an angry rebound and a close cover.  One bone.
  8. Texas A&M -2 at Ole Miss — A road favorite after a big home win in the SEC is dangerous.  A&M is a better team in the trenches than Ole Miss and the Black Bears (formerly Rebels) are banged up.  Two bones.

Arkansas travels to Death Valley to face LSU.  We’re sending one of our staff members to cover the game.  LSU is going to play two QB’s.  Arkansas likes to run the ball.  The total at 59 looks way too high.  The under seems like a sure bet.  Abby will take the over on another crazy hunch.

Woof!

A Taco, a Burger, and a Duck

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

When you watch a lot of the same type of programming you see a lot of the same commercials.

The intent is obvious.  Advertisers target their existing and potential customers by viewing habits and hit them with their best shot.

For example, if you’ve watched a lot of NCAA football this fall you’ve seen a lot of Taco Bell, Burger King, and AFLAC spots.  We repeat, a lot.

For no good reason this AM, we decided to dissect these three attempts at getting you out of your LayZBoy recliner and getting into your wallet.

First up we make a run for the border, although you shouldn’t say that anymore.  And, actually, that’s part of the point.   Taco Bell might be changing its image right before your eyes.

For years after it dropped that campaign, it attempted to shove too many “lipstick on a pig” creations down your throat all at a great value (read cheap) price surely ending in $.99. “Try our taco stuffed chalupa on a bun,” or something similarly unappealing like that.

Suddenly, they have the newly paired couple about to embrace on the beach, waves in the background, when the buoy falls over and makes the Taco Bell familiar gong sound.  Like Pavlov’s dogs, the female heads directly to the nearest Taco Bell.  When you need a taco, you need a taco, and you need it from Taco Bell.

It’s whimsical, its lifestyle, and it doesn’t trade on price.  If you have a brand that has value, why incessantly promote price?  Maybe Taco Bell’s brand had little value, and it’s now attempting to gain some.

We grade the initiative S for solid.

With Burger King, let’s flame broil the 30 seconds wasted straight away.  Let us count the ways.

The Burger King name limits the offerings that people will assign value to.  Quick, name another offering there besides the Whopper?  Subtly change the name already.  Think Popeyes.  It’s now calling itself Louisiana’s Kitchen more loudly by the year.

Second, change your corporate colors and uniforms.  This is a tough one.  But, if you keep doing the same things over and over again and you expect better results you define insanity someone once said.

Third, rework the mascot from head to toe.  Burger King, the character, is plastic-looking, intimidating to children, looks like Charlton Heston in Gray Lady Down, and provides no symbiotic connection.  Think Geico.  That gecko is tied at the hip to your home, boat, car, or motorcycle insurance.

And, lastly, stop offering your best product on sale every single day.  It’s not a sale anymore.  Two Whoppers for six bucks is the new price point.  Trading against yourself on price is a race to the bottom.  It’s one you can’t win, and if you do you lose anyway.

If the Home of the Whopper went out of business, would anyone notice?

We grade the initiative T for tired.  Very.

Speaking of kings, the king of football coaches, Nick Saban found 30 seconds here and there to trade in his crimson-colored wardrobe for a bright light blue blazer and shill for AFLAC.  Sometimes it’s he and the AFLAC duck, and sometimes Prime Time Neon Deion Sanders joins the two legends.

But just like how his defense can hit you directly in the jaw from the first play till the final whistle, Saban’s acting (or lack thereof) is something that you cannot unsee.  You focus on it, not the message.

When paired with the duck and its iconic quack of AFLAC, it does make an impression.  Goal number one is to get the audience to remember you.  Sometimes that’s good, and sometimes not so much.  Adding Sanders, who is now coaching too, looks downright uncomfortable on air.

And about that nasty blue color that overrides the entire spot-terrible.

Saban doesn’t need AFLAC’s money.   AFLAC doesn’t need Saban.

The duck isn’t lame, but the spot should be a lame duck.

We grade the initiative B for barn.  What?  As Mr. Wonderful would say on Shark Tank, “take the video out behind the barn and humanely dispose of it.”

And, now we’re set for the second-half kickoff.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-Sports

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

In cold enough way down yonder to consider a big ole pot of gumbo for dinner this evening.

Gumbo is a whole bunch of “stuff” blended smartly over a long cooking time.  As are the sports nuggets below.

If you’re a health nut what’s better than 10 Piece Nuggets early and gumbo late?  No need to answer that one.

  1.  But, if you were in an NFL survivor pool going into yesterday are you still in one coming out?  A scant few early season upsets prior turned into a blood bath yesterday.  Buffalo scores only six and loses 9-6 at Jacksonville.  Dallas got run out of Jerry’s playground by Denver.  Atlanta beats New Orleans who last week tattooed Tampa Bay.  The New York Giants took it to the Raiders.
  2. Last night Tennessee also took it to the LA Rams.  Vegas had the Rams as the favorite.  No Derrick Henry, no problem for the now 6-2 Titans.  Could the Titans secure home field throughout the AFC playoffs with Indy, Jacksonville, and Houston in their division? You bet.  They play physical ball for sixty minutes every sixty minutes that they suit up.
  3. The New England Patriots are now 5-4 after three straight wins.  They played Tampa Bay and Dallas tough in close losses.  Is their best football ahead of them?  It needs to be as they face their division-leading 5-3 Buffalo Bills twice in the coming weeks.   If they manage to get a leg up on Buffalo they close out the seventeen week schedule with the woeful Dolphins and hapless Jets.  It’s never too early to look ahead, is it?  Two words.  Bill Belichick.
  4. Odell Beckham Jr. is looking ahead as well. He will be a free agent this time tomorrow now that the Browns said enough already.  He’ll take his “talents” and his cancerous attitude to some team hopeful of the good outweighing the bad.  It will soon be marriage number three for OBJ and some desperate team.  Ditto the Raiders as DeSean Jackson is apparently headed there.  There is a reason why some talented players play for more teams than you would think they should.  Jackson started his career with the Eagles, then theRedskins, Bucs, Eagles again, and Rams.  The next stop is Vegas baby.  What could go wrong there?
  5. The Browns might have added by subtracting.  With OBJ gone they lambasted the Bengals 41-16 in Cinncinatti.  Their defense is good enough to make a run.  Will Baker Mayfield and the offense find a new identity?  Yesterday was a great start. He still held a perfect quarterback rating of 158.3 in the third quarter as the Browns became the first team since 2012 with three touchdown plays of 60 yards or more.
  6.  It’s a different league, but maybe it’s the same result.  In the NBA the Philadelphia 76ers, who are dealing with a star sidelined for a different reason, have risen to the top of the East as Ben Simmons continues to be away from the team.  Ben is troubled.  The 76ers suddenly are not.  We’ll leave it at that for now.
  7.  In MLB, fresh off of their World Series loss to the Atlanta Braves, the Houston Astros offered Carlos Correa a 5-year deal valued at about 32 million a year.  Sounds like good work if you can get it.  But, for Team Correa, it will be adios amigo as some team (Yankees?) will nearly double the years which effectively doubles the money guarantee.
  8. Correa is one of many, many free agents available as the Hot Stove League kicks in gear.  At the shortstop position alone in addition to Correa stands Javier Baez, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, and Cory Seager on the newly unemployed line.  Assuming baseball doesn’t lock out the players in a labor dispute, the comings and goings will be quite interesting this offseason.
  9. One way to extend your shelf life as an NCAA head football coach is to blame your assistants when your team struggles.  After three consecutive losses, Florida’s Dan Mullen fired DC Todd Grantham and offensive line coach John Hevesy on Sunday.  South Carolina embarrassed them Saturday.  The Washington Huskies fired OC John Donovan.  The decision comes a day after a loss that drops the Huskies to 4-5 overall and 3-3 in the Pac-12.  And, Oregon State DC Tim Tibesar was fired yesterday as the Beavers defense sunk to the bottom of the PAC 12 after a decent start.  Make them the bad guys even though you hired them in the first place.  It buys you a year and quiets the opposition some on the recruiting trail.
  10.  Georgia is #1 and second place isn’t close as the jockeying for the four playoff spots hits the far turn.  A very valid argument could be made for about eight teams to fill the final three spots as of now.  But, “that’s why they play the games,” someone once famously said. It’ll sort itself out.  It always does.  One thing is certain though.  Alabama is #2 because of its history, not its play on the field this year.  Still, they control their chances as they will face Auburn in the Iron Bowl in two weeks.  If they pass that test, Georgia looms in the SEC Championship in the Georgia Dome.  The committee wouldn’t still put them in the top four with two losses, would they?

Pass the rice.

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 10

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

When you’re hot, you’re hot.  And, through nine weeks Abby is en fuego.

As November rolls in her record stands at 33 wins and 23 losses, and 51 impressive bones won versus only 32 lost.  And, hopefully, her hunch won you a bunch last week.  It stands tall at 7-1.

Hopefully, she didn’t spend too much time patting (pawing) herself on the back this past week.  In the handicapping business you’re only as good as your next pick.

Week 10 is upon us.  But be wary.  There are plenty of double-digit lines, big road favorites, and trap games.  Abby’s playing it close to the dog vest.  Bet too much this week on a game and you might need some hair of the dog on Sunday.

  1. Army at Air Force -2 1/2 — Abby thanks all for their service, including service dogs.  The game, rightfully so is a tossup.  She’ll take the high elevation home-field advantage along with a stout D.  One bone.
  2. NC State at Florida St +3 and Clemson -4 at Louisville — It’s a parlay reminiscent of the old days of the ACC when there were Tigers and Seminoles and not much else.  Two bones to win six bones.
  3. Houston -13 at South Florida — Like mentioned above, when your hot, you’re hot.  It’s hot temperature-wise in Tampa, but the Cougars are even hotter.   Abby’s been riding the hot hand of Dana Holgerson. Houston covers late.  One bone.
  4. Wake Forest at North Carolina +2 1/2 — It feels like the line is off a good bit here.  Vegas wants you on the WF side.  Abby, as you know, likes to zig when others zag.  One bone.
  5. Liberty at Ole Miss over 67 — A point a minute plus a touchdown is plenty of scoreboard action.  Ole Lane and Hugh are going to pull out all of the stops.  One bone.
  6. Baylor at TCU + 6 1/2 — The steady hand at the wheel is Dave Aranda for Baylor.  The steady hand that was at the TCU wheel for 20 years was Gary Patterson.  Abby hates cats but loves dead cat bounces.  One bone.
  7. Michigan St at Purdue +3 — It feels like the line is a good bit off here, part two.  Purdue took down then #2 Iowa in Iowa after a big win last month.  Now, the Spartans hit the road in a similar situation.  Buyer beware.  One bone.
  8. LSU at Alabama – 28 1/2 —  Two years ago Coach O made much over the win in Tuscaloosa over Alabama.  Maybe too much.  WIll St. Nick have mercy on O’s soul?  He might in the fourth quarter, but by then it’ll be 49-10.  Two bones.

The Air Force v. Army game in Colorado is an early Saturday kickoff.  The over/under is a crazy low 37 1/2.  On a crazy hunch, Abby likes the under.

Ten bones wagered to win sixteen.

Four chalks, four dogs, six home teams, two road warriors, one parlay, one over, one under.

Woof!

 

 

 

Abby Picks, Year 4 Week 9

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Last week Abby was downright crabby.

Coming off of only her second losing week in eight was one thing.  But, labor shortages in her department are another.

This lack of staffing caused a deadline error that accidentally omitted her hunch bet.  She won, but it doesn’t count if it’s not published.

Regardless, she had a week to let the canine teeth shine right through her smile.  For the season the won-loss is 27 up and 21 down.  The bones for are a tasty 42 v 29.  The hunch bet sat in timeout and is 6-1.

To the picks she goes.

  1. Iowa at Wisconsin -3 —  Abby’s been on Whisky (too much isn’t good) for three weeks.  Others gave up the bottle and on Paul Chryst too early.  Time for another Saturday happy hour.   One bone.
  2.  Michigan -4 1/2 at Michigan St.  — Big brother is coming to East Lansing to teach little brother who is the boss of the state. The Spartans are undefeated, but their wins are against teams with names like Rutgers, Little Sisters of the Poor, and Western Kentucky.  This one won’t be too close.  Two bones.
  3.  Miami Fla +10 at Pittsburgh —  The Hurricanes aren’t very good.  Pitt is pretty good but like Sparty, they haven’t played much of a schedule.  Abby likes this one, but doesn’t love it.  One bone.
  4. Florida St at Clemson -9 1/2 –Dabo is due for a good game.   Can his offense outscore anyone by 10?  When the sky looks like it’s falling, Abby smells a zig on a zag.  One bone.
  5. Washington St + 16 at Arizona St.– Are the Sun Devils good enough to be favored by 16 over anyone?  The Cougars aren’t too good, but she sniffs a backdoor cover.  Call it about 38-24.  One bone.
  6. Kentucky at Mississippi St -1 —  This line looks like the wrong team is favored to Abby.  Shouldn’t the Bulldogs be the underdog against a 6-1 opponent with pelts like Florida and LSU on the wall?   Upon further review, it isn’t.  Three bones.  And, P.S.  It’s Halloween, and Mike Leach still hates candy corn.  Enjoy forty-five seconds of YouTube gold.
  7. Penn St at THE -18 1/2 —  Jeez that’s a lot of points given.  Not enough.  THE has to win out convincingly to finish in the final four.   One bone.
  8. SMU at Houston Pick it — Two Cougars in one week?  Yes.  Pick them she will.  Two bones.

Auburn squares off at home vs Ole Miss.  The over/ under is 66 1/2.  It seems low considering the scoring prowess of Ole Miss and as well as their leaky defense.  Somehow it stays under on a hunch.

Five favorites, two dogs, one pick it, and no candy corn.

Woof!

 

 

 

 

Abby Picks, Year 4 Week 8

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Skunked!  Well not totally, but Abby’s picks stunk at a minimum last week.

The only thing you can do when a dog gets skunked is to wash her down with some tomato juice and hope that it doesn’t happen again.

Luckily she has a lot of padding on her paws to cushion the 2-6 performance last week.  Overall she’s 24-18 in the won/loss column, 37-26 in bones, and the hunch bet won to bring that year long to a solid 6-1.

Moving along.

  1. Memphis -2 at UCF — In a Friday night coin flip game take the better team on the road and hope they can win at the very end of what will be a back and forth game.  One bone.
  2. Texas St at Georgia St -10 1/2 and Colorado at California – 8 — Two lines caught Abby’s eyes this week that looked like weird outliers v the teams’ performance to date.  Georgia St and California have no business being big favorites in these games.  So, Abby says take them in a parlay.  One bone to win three bones.
  3.  Oregon +1 at UCLA — Abby’s going with the better team on the road again in another coin flip game.  Cristobal is an under-the-radar, underrated coach.  One bone.
  4. Mississippi St at Vanderbilt +21 —  Vandy is not good and that’s being polite.  If Miss St loses this game Mike Leach will be called not good and that’s being polite.  He won’t, but the Bulldogs won’t cover either.  One bone.
  5. LSU ML at Ole Miss —  Who knows if LSU will play for themselves or come out dead flat with the Coach O news this week?  Abby doesn’t love LSU to win but loves the value in the bet.  One bone to win three bones.
  6. USC at Notre Dame -6 1/2 — For the third time the bet is the better team but this time ND is the home team.  Expect it close for three quarters then the Irish pour it on.  One bone.

Six bones to win ten, four chalks, three dogs, and one big can of tomato juice.

Woof!

 

Lefty and Shorty-WNBA, Vacation, Parade

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Last evening Lefty and Shorty were all but ready to close the Gulf Station.   It was a clear cool night, but cars were nowhere to be found as most folks likely were home watching the MLB playoffs.  Lefty- Welcome back.  A week-long vacation is a long time.  Shorty-Thanks, I think.

Lefty sat to the left of Shorty.  Imagine that.  Shorty sat on the shorter of the two “halves” of the 55-gallon drum. Imagine that.  Each was cut down to size and retrofitted with a soft cushion top.

Lefty- Did you go anywhere?  Shorty- Phoenix, really Scottsdale.    Lefty- What was the mood with the Mercury?  Shorty- Nobody pays attention to it out there, it’s always hot.

Lefty-No, not the thermometer, the Phoenix Mercury women’s basketball team’s loss in the WNBA Finals.  Shorty- Oh, nobody pays attention to it out there either.  Lefty- Wow.  Well did you watch it?  Shorty- What?Lefty- The Chicago Sky beat the…  Shorty- The Chicago Sky?  How could I see that? I went to Phoenix.   Lefty-  I know, I know.  Did you watch the final game on TV?  Shorty- Oh. No.  I don’t think they had the Bravo Channel on the hotel TV.

Lefty- Moving along. They had a parade for the Sky yesterday.  Shorty-  How’d that go?

Lefty- It was sparely attended it seems.  Shorty- What if you threw yourself a party and no one came?  Lefty- Last week the WNBA Commissioner said that she thought the social justice stance that the league took in 2019-2020 gave them a whole new platform to reach a far greater audience.  Shorty- How’d that go?  Maybe they’re allergic to confetti?   Lefty- Whew, you must have slept well last night!

Shorty-  Did you hear the one about the WNBA and Brian Laundrie?  Lefty- I don’t want to. Shorty- Ok.  Too soon?  Lefty- Way.  Shorty- Maybe if the league offered free booster shots?  Lefty- Holy Mary Mother of God, pray for us.  Shorty– The fans in stands seem at least six feet apart, a booster might bring them together.

Lefty- Just one more question should do it.  What do you think of the Sky’s mascot?   Shorty- Sky Guy?  Lefty- Yes.  Shorty- Wrong pronouns if you ask me.  Lefty- I did.  Shorty- What?  Lefty- The best I could.

 

 

O No

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Ed Note: This article was originally published Monday.  An email out glitch prevented the subscribers from knowing that until Tuesday. Sorry.

BBR attempts each time it puts virtual pen to virtual paper to deliver a story that has an interest to a diverse national readership.

Coach Ed Orgeron of the Fighting Tigers of LSU was hardly that when he took over a proud football program that was stuck in neutral due to a stubborn coach named Les Miles.  Three years later a storybook15-0 season and an NCAA Championship made him just that.  Throw in some folksy “down on the bayou” logic and a big dose of the biggest frog anyone has ever had in his throat and you have a human interest story as well.

So how did this rags to riches story turn back to rags just 20 months later?  One of our staffers is quite close to the program and shares his thoughts this AM.

  1. In the SEC winning is the only thing.  A 9-8 record since the 15 and 0 run highlighted by a listless performance at Kentucky a week ago is reason number one.  When you make $9 million a year you don’t go 9-8.  When you coach in the SEC and make “only,” say, $4.5 million you don’t go 9-8 and survive either.
  2. Winning cures everything.  Losing exposes everything.  Orgeron’s actions while in front of the team, representing the team, and in his personal life away from the team had enough yellow flags in the last 20 months that they collectively went from a concern to a strong reason number two for his departure.
  3. O has never been a coordinator on either side of the ball.  Therefore, he needed to surround himself with two good ones.  He ran through OC’s like Auburn ran through his rush defense.  It went from Ensminger to Canada (who he had a fistfight with four games into his tenure) to Ensminger/Brady to Lineham to Peetz in five years.  That’s five coordinators, two buyouts, and too many losses in too short of a timeframe.
  4. He also gave then DC Dave Aranda, now a successful head coach at Baylor, a nudge out of the door late in the great 2019 season.  Ed wanted more pressure, more four-man fronts.  He said so publicly.  Out goes Aranda, in comes a three-year guaranteed contract for Bo Pelini.  LSU’s defense in 2020 was historically its worst EVER statistically speaking.  Pelini was bought out after one year.
  5.  What were they?  One was when he failed to dodge a question posed by a Fox News anchor in an interview about football life with the covid problem in 2020.  With little time remaining on-air she pivoted and asked what O thought of then-President Trump.  Instead of separating himself and the team from politics he warmly embraced Trump.  “President Trump is doing a great job.”   O is entitled to his opinion, but he needed to keep it to himself as the leader of the team.  It divided the team and the school’s leadership that he spoke out.  Free speech is no longer free.
  6. Two, the numerous off-field dalliances of a newly single man should have been private but were too public in today’s video and social media world. It’s his private life until it’s not.  The optic caused concern for a school with way too many Title IX transgressions.
  7.  Three, he had one too many “new friends” attending practice with or without their children running around like they, not LSU, owned the place.  It was a minor distraction or three that added fuel to the brush fire.  It showed a lack of focus on the job at hand when the hand that feeds him had just jumped his contract from four to nine million a year and guaranteed the next four years.
  8.  He had one too many brush-ups with fans or foes.  The second to last was calling out an overserved UCLA supporter and challenging him to a fight pregame.  “Bring your ass on in your sissy blue shirt,” Orgeron said.  The Tigers had little fight during the game losing 38-27 against a perceived inferior opponent in game one of this year that needed marked improvement from a 5-5 prior year.  The last was taking a question on his weekly radio show from a prankster who Oregeron then told that he “would find a fishing hole for.”  Individually harmless enough, collectively a sore spot.
  9. What’s next for O?  He’s going to finish out the year as HC for the Tigers then move on.  So, Orgeron is the interim coach replacing Orgeron until year’s end. Odd?  Maybe somewhat.  Then, we’ll see.  His days as a head coach are done.  Maybe a friend like Lane Kiffin could hire him as a defensive line coach which would be a back to the future move for both.  Or, his personality could fit well on local radio assuming anyone could understand him over the air.  Or, he could take his $17 million dollars that LSU will buy him out with over the next 18 months and sail away with his companion of choice.
  10. What’s next for LSU?  What is overlooked by recency bias is that LSU has been on a two decades-long run.  2019 was the best of the years, but 2003 and 2007 ended with LSU hoisting the most important trophy of all.  In 2011, they finished runner-up.  It’s a top ten job in America.  An argument could be made that it’s top 5.  The AD has a chance to do what O ultimately failed to do-hire a great person, trust them to do their jobs, and keep your nose at least clean enough.

Let the name game speculation begin.