Sports

O? Or Neaux?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Just last week we wrote about the perennial winning culture of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the perennial losing culture of the Detroit Lions, why they are who they are, and the chasm of difference in their on-field results.  It is titled Lions, Turkeys, and Culture.  Today we add Tigers to that list.

After Alabama dismantled LSU 55-17 last Saturday, we received a few inquiries from some of our VIP subscribers asking how the dramatic fall from the penthouse to the outhouse could be so severe and so swift in Baton Rouge.   So, unlike Coach Ed Orgeron we decided to listen to “what’s important now”  to our loyal fans and sent one of our best BBR investigative reporters to Baton Rouge to get answers.

LSU won it all last year by winning every one of its 15 games.  Individual awards, like Heisman trophies, and group awards, like the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line, were collected like the marbles you had in your youth.  This year LSU has three wins against South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas.  Their combined record is 5-22.  They have five losses.  The point total differential is 222-110 or an average beatdown of 44-22 in those games.

So, what happened and why so quickly?

As is usual in such a fall there is no one answer, but a multitude of them.  And, the collective weight of them gained steam like a snowball down a hill.  The culture went from envious to toxic.

First, LSU lost five players who were drafted in the first round of the NFL draft.  No one, not even Bama can replace that talent in the next year.  Sure, there are four and five-star talents waiting in the wings, but that doesn’t make them first-round talents.  Fourteen players in all were drafted, an all-time team high mark.

Second, almost half of the 14 were early declarations.  What better time to test the market when you’ve proven your worth.  You don’t go up from 15-0, you only go down.  This makes the 2020 edition short on experienced talent.  Stated differently, most of the best juniors are gone.

Three of the best that remained opted out prior to the season.  One, Ja’Marr Chase, will go in the first round as likely the second wideout taken after Bama’s Devonta Smith.  Know where Smith grew up?  Louisiana, but we digress.

Seven more have opted out along the way in the year of the COVID-19. Three of them will get drafted, and one of them will also go in the first round.

As the talent moved on so did the offensive co-coordinator Joe Brady to the NFL and the defensive coordinator Dave Aranda to the head coaching position at Baylor.  They were replaced by Scott Lineham and Bo Pelini respectively.  No disrespect, but the two fifty-something-year-old hires have lost a bit off of their fastballs.

All of the above was occurring while America burned during the summer of discontent.  Ed Orgeron was praised by President Trump during a speech or three.  Coach O, as is his right, returned the compliment.

Did this sit well with the team?  No.  They decided to peacefully march across campus, as is their right, calling for an end to police brutality.  Who did they not invite or alert?  Coach O.  The march ended in the president of the university’s office.  Yes, it did.  The president called a dumbfounded Orgeron who hurried to the office.

Afterward, a clearly caught off guard Orgeron said that he had learned a lot in listening to his players in the president’s office.  Afterward, he privately admonished them for not including him on the front end of such a public display.  This was much to the dismay of the players.

All of this has taken place while players have to isolate as a team to stay healthy, then isolate as an individual if they don’t stay healthy.  The weight of it all feels like the aforementioned snowball.  The spirit of the team reaches new lows weekly.

The 2020 season was a mere 1 and 1/2 games old when LSU starting quarterback Myles Brennan, an impressive redshirt junior went down and now is out for the season.  In his place is an 18-year-old true freshman without the benefit of spring practice nor much fall prep.  On the road in the SEC a “rookie” often looks like a deer caught in the headlights in the deep south.

So where to from here?  The LSU Athletic Department is accused of mishandling nine Title IX filings alleging coverup or negligence in sexual battery, domestic violence, and worse matters.  Most are alleged to have occurred by former football team members and possibly five while Ed O has been the head coach.  Internal investigations are ongoing.  It could be all of the cover AD Scott Woodward needs to lower the boom on Coach O just one year removed from on-field perfection.  It’s doubtful, but it’s possible.

Short of that, O needs to jolt his coaching staff to its core.  Good old boys need to be bought out or outright fired.  Some can’t coach.  Some can’t recruit.   Does LSU have the cash in the pandemic year revenue shortfall to clear out several?  The boosters do, but are they buying in more so than the team has?

Experienced talent is lacking v. historical norms, but two back to back top-five recruiting classes, one on campus, and one about to be signed net week will help greatly.  In Louisiana lots of four-star and a few five-star players are never too many mile markers away from Baton Rouge.

And, if he survives as is expected, Orgeron needs to take a deep look in the self-reflection mirror.

An incredible championship run likely bought him some time (one more year) to fix the many blemishes.  But trying to hide them with makeup doesn’t work well in the heat and humidity that south Louisiana is infamous for.

His often-repeated mantra of “One Team, One Heartbeat” is anything but.

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-Sports

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

On yesterday’s road trip to diversity, we got hungry.  The drive from Portland to Madison has 2000 mile markers and very few restaurants.  We yearned for nuggets.  You know the feeling.  It’s fast food for the sports-minded.  Have ten below on us.

  1.  The Pittsburgh Steelers blew a 14 point halftime lead and eventually fell to the visiting Washington Football Team last night on MNF.  The Steelers seldom lose at home, and have only lost one game in the 22 years prior at home when leading by 14 or more.  And, poof goes the last undefeated team in the NFL this year.  Don Shula (RIP) and his 1972 undefeated Miami Dolphins can rest easy for at least one more year.
  2.  After the Steelers’ loss who owns the longest winning streak in the NFL now? It’s the New Orleans Saints with nine and counting.  The New York Football Giants are next with four while the Washington Football Team is third with three.  In the NFL you are either getting better or getting run over.  Suddenly two NFC East teams have come alive.
  3. Washington Football Team coach Ron Rivera fought cancer this year. When he entered the then Redskins offices he fought incompetence, complacency, good ole boys, a talent void, and a losing culture.  He’s a bit old school, a fighter, and maybe the most underrated head coach in the league.  After a 1-5 start they stand at 5-7 with four games remaining. They have the 49ers, Seahawks, Panthers (his old team), and the Eagles left.  An 8-8 record certainly is within reach.
  4. The Minnesota Vikings also started 1-5.  At home this past Sunday they needed overtime to defeat the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.  In the NFL they don’t count how, they count how many.  The Vikings evened their record at 6-6.  Head coach Mike Zimmer is a bit old school, a fighter, and maybe the most underrated head coach in the league.  Where have you heard that before?    The Bucs, Bears, Saints, and Lions are their final four down the regular-season stretch.  It’s a team no one would like to play if they get to the expanded playoff format.
  5.  Don’t look now but the New England Patriots are 6-6 after back to back wins with Cam Newton throwing for under a hundred yards in each of the games. The Rams, Dolphins, Bills, and Jets remain.  That’s a tall task with a shaky QB.  Does anyone doubt Bill Belichick can do it?  Computer simulations give the Patriots a 14% chance of making the playoffs.  Does Belichick even own a computer?
  6. One day after his ill-advised, all-out blitz failed to take down the opposing quarterback on the game-deciding play, New York Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was sacked by coach Adam Gase in a Monday morning meeting that lasted nearly an hour.  DC Williams called the exact same aggressive and foolish play in the 2011 NFC Division Championship game sending the Saints to a last-second loss in San Fran.  At 0-12, Adam Gase will collect a paycheck for only four more weeks than the DC he fired yesterday.  Sam Darnold will need a new address too.  The Jets fell in love with Trevor Lawrence months ago.
  7. Who benefitted from Williams’s moronic call in 2011 in Candlestick Park?  Jim Harbaugh.  He was the AP Coach of the Year that year for San Francisco.  By 2014 he had worn out his welcome on the left coast and headed east to Ann Arbor, MI for a lot of green and greener pastures.  Fast forward to 2020 and Harbaugh is either in the beginning, middle, or end of the end as the Wolverines coach.  He’s 1-6 on the year and 0-5 lifetime against this weekend’s rival opponent THE Ohio St. Buckeyes.  THE is favored by a whopping 28 points.
  8. Harbaugh’s teams in college have won 68% of their games.  What percent of the games have his NFL teams won?  Sixty-eight percent.  It takes an unlikeable, polarizing guy to have to leave before he is asked to do so with that type of winning percentage.  That’s Harbaugh, khakis and all.  It says here that this is his last game at Michigan too.
  9.  Vegas loves it when the public sees the obvious.  Big favorites over bad teams are the best of the best for Sin City.  Last week there were four double-digit dogs in the NFL.  The Jets covered and blew the outright win on the aforementioned last play.  The Broncos covered easily.  The Giants won straight up.  And Cincinnati lost by 12 as an 11 point underdog.  There’s a reason there is so much marble and gold on The Strip.
  10. Speaking of which a few lines that are interesting, Coastal Carolina is favored by 13.5 at Troy.  Surely there is a letdown after the win over BYU at home with College GameDay present is there? Yes.   Bama is a 31.5 road favorite over Arkansas after they beatdown LSU.  Is there ever a letdown by a Nick Saban coached team? No.

You read.  You got fed.  Now, get busy.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Yr 3, Wk 11

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As the season coughs it’s way to the last few weeks, Abby’s picks have been a bit under the weather.  A nice parlay landed and dulled the pain of some close (but they all count) losses.  Note to doggie- Notre Dame is legit and Texas is dog $%!#.

For the season the W/L total dipped below .500 for the first time at 26-28-1.  The bones are still cashing though at a respectable 45-38.  You can take bones to the bank or bury them in the backyard.  The hunch bet which picked opposite all of the above was a hedge bet winner and stands at 3-4.

The picks below will start a gambling December to remember.

  1. ULL +3 at Appalacian St. –  Rumors swirl that Coach Billy Napier will be headed to (pick one) Vandy, South Carolina, Texas, or another step up of his choosing in 2021.  But, for now, he keeps his Cajuns ragin.  It’s a Friday night special.  One bone.
  2. Vanderbilt at Georgia over 54 – Last week the Commodores had a mason for a coach, a female for a kicker, and an offensive offense.  The kicker barely kicked and the coach was kicked out of the door.  The offense still stinks.  The ship is sinking.  Anchor down.  Dead cat bounce.  Abby hates cats but loves UGA.  Two bones.
  3. Nebraska +3 at Purdue – Nebraska has one win this year.  It came versus a winless Penn St. Tomorrow they’ll have two for no good reason at all.  One bone.
  4. Florida at Tennessee + 17 and over 63 –  The double-digit dog in this series almost always covers.  It’s at Tennessee.  Florida is due for a 40 plus point game.  Tenn needs to score 27 and the parlay cashes.   One bone to win three bones.
  5. Indiana at Wisconsin -14 – The Badgers crashed into the wall on the third turn of the season.  They annually do so.  Abby predicts a focused effort against a good Indiana team.  This line seems quite high.  Therefore, we see a zig on a zag cover. Two bones.
  6. Texas A&M at Auburn + 6 and 1/2 – The Aggie cry for inclusion (a popular word these days) in the playoffs was dented by a bland performance last week.  This week the conversation ends.  Abby sees a straight-up win for Auburn as a real possibility.  One bone.

The hunch bet has a chance to get its year-long record to .500 this week.  Texas (-7) has no business being a seven-point pick over Kansas St much less almost anybody, do they?  Remember the note to doggie above?  Abby says Hook Em anyway.

Woof!

Lions, Turkeys, and Culture

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Week 13 for the NFL is upon us.  Thirteen’s a lucky number and the NFL has been/was lucky to have this pandemic year schedule of theirs roll along for the most part uninterrupted by that damn thing that we can’t see, but certainly can feel.

With everyone walking on eggshells the season is anything but normal due to the virus.  But on the field, some franchises remind us weekly of who they’ve been, who they are, and who they’ll likely continue to be.

It began normally enough on Thanksgiving Day with a Houston Texans 41-25 rout over the perennial doormat Detroit Lions.  The Lions have looked like turkeys forever really.

It ended, strangely enough, yesterday with a Wednesday mid-afternoon game that Pittsburgh won over Baltimore 19-13.  That game was originally scheduled for turkey day night.  Covid-19 hit the Ravens team again and again and again causing it to move and move and move again.  That Pittsburgh won is normal too.  They’re 12-0 this year.

The Detroit listless loss was the final nail in Head Coach Matt Patrica’s coffin. That’s normal too.  No word on whether he had to turn that pencil from behind his ear into Human Resources on the way out of the door, but we digress.  The Lions have had 17 head coaches come and go since Super Bowl I in 1967.  And, the Lions have participated in exactly zero of said Super Bowls.

The Pittsburgh win had Head Coach Mike Tomlin fuming afterward.  He’s seen better.  In fact, he’s been the HC for 219 and counting of them and won 144. That’s 67%, or two out of every three if you’re using a #2 Patricia pencil and scoring at home, but we digress again.  The Steelers have had only four coaches in the Super Bowl era.  The Steelers have appeared in eight of them and won the most (tied with NE) with six Lombardi Trophies.

Detroit has won 344 games in the modern era (since 1966) while Pittsburgh has won 490.

You see the picture crystal clear by now, don’t you?

So with league rules designed to make it hard for a good team to remain that way and for a bad team to have a hand up in improving how can one franchise be so abysmal and one exemplary?  After all, the strength of schedules, draft order, revenue sharing, and salary caps are structured in a way to make the league as competitive as possible.  This isn’t the NY Yankees payroll v the Oakland A’s.

It’s leadership.  And leadership establishes culture, doesn’t it?  The Rooney family exudes class and has people who want to work for them.  They spot talent and know value like most no other.

The Ford family?  Apparently not so much.  No head coach of the Lions since 1957 has gone on in the NFL to get a second head coaching stint.  None.  We hope Particia took a note (written in pencil of course) of that before he accepted the gig.   So the slogan went, Ford has a better idea!  Not really.

Bill Parcells is a mentor to this day for Sean Payton.   Payton proudly called and told Parcells that he got his first HC job, that with the inept New Orleans Saints franchise in 2005.  Parcells quipped, “well if you don’t fix the losing culture down there, you’ll be looking for your second one in three years.”

The Saints lacked what Pittsburgh has always had.

The Lions are still looking for it.

 

 

Opt Out or Cop Out?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Two Mondays ago the following was the lede paragraph from an ESPN article. “South Carolina’s top two cornerbacks, Jaycee Horn and Israel Mukuamu, have opted out less than 48 hours after coach Will Muschamp was fired this past weekend.”  South Carolina fell to 2-5 after a loss to Ole Miss two days prior.

Yesterday it became official that Terrace Marshall, by far LSU’s best receiver this year and a significant part of last year’s National Championship team, opted out right after LSU played a sloppy offensive game on a sloppy Kyle Field.  The loss to A&M brought the LSU season record to a sloppy 3-4, a far cry from last year’s excellence.

The three players cited above are far from the only college players who have opted out in the year 2020 of our COVID-19 pandemic.  Some hung up the cleats of their choice prior to the first kickoff of their season. Some after minor injuries.   Some conferences, ahem, the PAC-12, wanted to hang up their season before it started as well.  But, we digress.

Merriam-Webster defines opt-out as a transitive verb meaning “to choose not to participate in something.”

The NCAA took numerous steps this fall to attempt to play fall sports.  One step was that  “all student-athletes must be allowed to opt-out of participation due to concerns about contracting COVID-19. If a college athlete chooses to opt-out, that individual’s athletic scholarship commitment must be honored by the college or university.”

Further, that student-athlete would not lose any eligibility if they chose to opt-out.  In other words a sophomore on the field in 2020 who became a junior in 2021 in the classroom would still be considered a sophomore in 2021on the field.

The original idea’s intent was to give each individual a path to choosing what they deemed appropriate and safe for themselves without any loss of opportunity as a result.  And, that sounds fine in, ready for it, unprecedented times.

What doesn’t sound fine to many is how the one-year “loophole” is being used by the players relative to their responsibility to their team, coaches, and peers.  None of the three mentioned above are concerned about COVID-19 suddenly.  They are concerned about their individual future.

The two from South Carolina “quit” on their team and teammates 48 hours after the administration “quit” on the coach that recruited them.  It’s time to get ready for the draft they said.

The one from LSU gave an impassioned speech to the entire team sans coaches present two weeks ago about finishing strong as a team.  So much for that.  Is he suddenly afraid of the disease?  No.  Was he suddenly afraid of injury? No. He played on a rain-drenched, slippery College Station field Saturday night all the while knowing that Sunday was time to tweet that he was opting out.

“It’s time to get ready for the draft,” they say.  “Weren’t you doing that in so many ways while playing, lifting, etc. within the framework of the team?”  Fans ask.

“It’s an individual decision,” some say.  “It’s putting the individual before the team,” the retort bellows.

“It’s a sign of the times,” some say.  They go on, “this generation is so soft.”

“Doesn’t college prepare you to go out into the real world, get a job, and make money?”  “If they feel ready for the draft, so be it.”  This sounds selfish (bad) and capitalistic (good till Bernie takes over) all at the same time.

Only a few months back, NCAA players across the fruited plain were organizing.  They demanded to get paid for playing at the college level.  Not yet it seems.

Is this a one-time pandemic opt-out, some call it a cop-out, only one time?  Or is it a natural progression beyond the players choosing to skip bowl games that they deemed “meaningless?”

Is this yet another step towards a watered-down college football game going forward?

Soon might college football remind you of college basketball?

If you support the team you won’t like it.  If you support the player you will.

There is no “I” in the word “team,” especially if “I” opts out.

Truer words…………..

 

 

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Yr 3, Wk 10

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Vegas wins when you tie.  It’s called the vig (also known as juice, the cut, the take, the margin, the house edge).  Abby won three (including a fun parlay) and lost three bets last week.  One was a brutal, slim 1/2 point non-cover.  So close. So far.   She won five bones and lost five bones.  The hunch bet game got “Covided out” yet again.

Viola.  Vegas loves a week like that.  It keeps you coming back for more.  And, more is below.

The season stands even at 24-24-1, the bones are still good at 41-32, and the hunch is stuck at 2-4.

  1. Notre Dame at North Carolina +5 1/2 –  A straight up win would not shock Abby Roux.  She’ll take NC to cover but suffer a heartbreaking last-second loss.  One bone.
  2. Oregon at Oregon St +14 1/2–  Home teams are a theme for her this week.  An angry home team in a rivalry game formerly known as The Civil War (that’s insensitive to say now but we digress) is even better.  One bone.
  3. Iowa St at Texas -1 – She takes yet another home team, and this one is nothing if not inconsistent.  Tom Herman has to win games like this in year four, doesn’t he?  Two bones.
  4. Kentucky at Florida under 61 and 1/2 and LSU at Texas A&M under 63 –  Alabama put 63 on Kentucky by themselves. Over is an easy peasy cover here isn’t it?  Abby always loves a good zig when others zag.  It’ll be raining cats and dogs in College Station.  Half of that is always one of Abby’s favorite weather events.  One bone to win three.
  5. Auburn +24 and 1/2 at Alabama – The Iron Bowl always has a surprise or two within the 60 minutes.  Bama wins but as Lee Corso always says, “It’ll be closer than the experts think.”  Abby doesn’t think it’ll be too much closer, but enough to cover.  One bone.
  6. Miss St at Ole Miss -9 1/2 – The Egg Bowl features the two newest and biggest coaching personalities in the game today.

    Points will come quicker than playing a pinball machine.   Kiffin is going to run up the score if he gets a chance.  Two bones.

There you have it.  Four home for the holiday’s teams in five games, and two under the total score tied into a parlay.  That’s eight bones wagered with a chance at winning 10.

On a hunch, bet the opposite of all of the above.  It’s a novel approach in the year of the novel virus.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Woof!

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-Sports

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

We pause our series on specific divisions within the NFL to bring you some Monday morning nuggets.  But there is plenty of the NFL in the nuggets. There’s a Pope, too.  Start your Monday off right, consume away.

  1. In an unprecedented meeting, a delegation of five NBA players and several officials from the National Basketball Players Association are at the Vatican this Monday morning for a private audience with Pope Francis to discuss their work on social justice issues.  This was at the Pope’s behest.   It’s another blast of fresh air to keep the social justice platform flying and it’s the most outspoken pope jumping into the limelight yet again.  Now if he could take measures to minimize those pesky pedophile priests that he “hires,” but we digress.
  2. One day after Florida State abruptly postponed its scheduled game against Clemson because of a positive COVID-19 test among the Tigers’ roster, Dabo Swinney lambasted FSU’s administration for the decision.  “This game was not canceled because of COVID,” Swinney said. “COVID was just an excuse to cancel the game. To me, the Florida State administration forfeited the game.”  Dabo tends to color outside of the lines a bit.  He never hesitates to “give all the glory to the Lord” either.  If he doesn’t get the Bama gig post-Saban maybe he’s on a shortlist to be the next pope, but we digress again.
  3. Speaking of Alabama, while many other big-time programs leak oil all over the 2020 track, the Tide just keeps the pedal to the metal.  Nick Saban is the engine that never needs a tune-up.  They remain ranked numero uno in the latest AP top 25 after a 63-3 mud stomp of the Kentucky Wildcats Saturday.  They haven’t been tested in five weeks.  The Iron Bowl v # 22 Auburn might be (MIGHT BE) a test and is only five days away.
  4. Did you have both Cincinnatti and BYU undefeated and ranked inside of the top ten in the AP Top 25 as we enter the home stretch in NCAA football before the season started?  No, you didn’t.  Cincy survived and gutted out a win late over a hungry and always ready UCF Saturday.  BYU had a glorified practice against North Alabama.  BYU might have the best QB in the country this year in Zach Wilson and that is saying something with guys named Jones, Fields, Lawrence, and Trask slinging it around.
  5.  Did you have Penn St at 0-5 and dead last in the Big 10 East and Northwestern at 5-0 and alone in first in the Big 10 West?  No, you didn’t.  Penn St lost last week to Nebraska who this week got worked by Illinois.  As an encore, the Nittany Lions gave up 41 getting blasted by Iowa in (not so) Happy Valley.  Wisconsin scored a meager 7 points in 60 minutes against a stout NW defense.  The Badgers coughed the ball up five times in all and four in the first half alone.  Northwestern only scored 17 themselves, but that was nine more than needed.
  6. Turning to the NFL, this staff reporter was assigned to the Saints v Falcons contest in the Superdome where 6000 faithful masked and watched the Saints D turn in its third straight sterling effort.  Falcons QB Matty Ryan is sore this AM.  Cam Jordan sacked him three ( and now 21 times in his career) of the eight times the Saints D sacked him altogether.  The Saints’ offense only mustered 24 points in Taysom Hill’s first NFL start.  Taysom is 31 but had more fun out there than a kid.  But, it was 14 more than needed when you hold the formerly high flying Falcons O to just three field goals.  Remember, two weeks ago Tom Brady and the Bucs only got one field goal at home against NO.
  7. The New Orleans win coupled with the Green Bay loss to Indy flipped the race for the NFC one seed.  NO is 8-2 while GB slipped to 7-3.  Seattle is also 7-3.  Don’t look now but the LA Rams are 6-3, also playing strong on defense, and face 7-3 Tampa Bay in FL tonight on MNF.
  8. Upsets ruled the day.  The aforementioned Indianapolis team trailed 28-14 at the half but won 34-31.  The Titans beat the now limping Ravens in Baltimore.  And Tua sat for quarter number four in Denver as Ryan Fitzpatrick tried to rally the Dolphins.  His late pick secured the win for Denver 20-13.
  9. After Kansas City held off the Vegas Raiders that leaves the exciting AFC playoff picture, well, even more exciting.  Pitt is 10-0 while KC is 9-1.  Indy and Tennessee are tied virtually at 7-3 in the South, while Buffalo leads the East at 7-3, all the while that Cleveland is somehow 7-3.  Losers from yesterday, Miami, Vegas, and Baltimore are all 6-4.
  10. Everyone knew that Joe Burrow would need to break a leg to prop up the woeful Cincinnati Bengals when he was drafted #1 overall last spring.  Their D is porous.  And, their O line is a sieve. Ranked 29th by Pro Football Focus in pass protection metrics, yesterday against the Washington Football Team the Cincy offensive line lived down to its reputation.  And, down went Burrow.  He was sacked and so was his season.  He did indeed break a leg.  Or, at least his ACL.  An MRI will tell the severity of the injury later today.  That’s sad, just like the Bengals franchise.

Happy Monday.  It’s a short week at least.

 

 

After Further Review- AFC North

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Did the new NFL playoff expanded format for 2020 and beyond slip right by you?

The NFL changed its highly approved of, very fair, and long-standing playoff tradition.  It’s the first playoff format change since 1990.

John Madden used to say that December football was different than the months prior.  He said it’s because good teams turn up the effort and solidify their playoff spots or division championships, while average to bad teams play out the string.

Seven teams out of 16 in each conference now make the postseason tourney.  With five or six games left, the possibilities are numerous.

As Thanksgiving approaches, we decided to take a few days this week and next to take a team by team look at each division to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

That series continues today with a look at the AFC North.

The Past

– Pittsburgh is one of, if not the model franchise in the NFL and for that matter all of sports.  One family has owned it for its existence.  The Steelers have had only three head coaches (Noll, Cowher, and Tomlin) since 1969.  They have won six Super Bowls in the modern era tied with the NE Patriots.  Their eight appearances are second only to New England’s 11.

– The Baltimore Ravens (once they moved from Cleveland) have been worthy adversaries to the Steelers for the last twenty years.  Ozzie Newsome is on the shortlist of best GM/ Presidents in the NFL.  They know defensive talent when they see it and they know how to deploy it.

– Cincinnati has had spurts, but has cheap minded ownership hence a nonsustainable model for winning.  Cleveland has been Cleveland.

The Outlook

–  The outlook prior to the season had Baltimore as the frontrunner coming off of their strong 2019 season and returning Lamar Jackson and most all of the pieces of a good to real good D.

– Pittsburgh is always good (see above), but questions about Ben Rothlisberger’s age and health, a continual transition at the skill positions, and at times a leaky D made them a bit of a question mark.

– Cleveland has been assembling talent over the last few years, but had yet to pull it together.  It’s hard to change a multi-decade culture.

– Cincinnatti lacked talent from top to bottom and gave up on Andy Dalton after years of mediocrity at the position.  They had the first pick in last years’ draft for a reason.

The Present

2020 AFC North Standings
TEAM W L T PCT PF PA
Pittsburgh 9 0 0 1.000 271 171
Baltimore 6 3 0 .667 244 165
Cleveland 6 3 0 .667 216 244
Cincinnati 2 6 1 .278 204 250

 

– Raise your hand if you had the Steelers as the lone undefeated team in the NFL a week prior to Thanksgiving.  They’re an average offense statistically, but they’re ranked third overall in team defense, first in special teams, first in third-down conversions on offense, third in turnovers allowed, and second in penalty yards against.  There are a lot of ways to win a game and the Steelers exploit that.

– Raven’s fans might be disappointed sitting at 6-3.  While the division might be out of reach, the losses are to the Chiefs, the Steelers in a close one, and to a desperate at home New England team last week.  The defense is, as it always is, darn good giving up only 18 ppg and ranks first in all of the NFL in overall defensive metrics.

– Browns fans might be ecstatic sitting at 6-3.  But scoring 216 points while giving up 244 is a telling stat.  Their six wins came against Cincinnati (twice) Washington, Dallas, Houston, and Indy (the lone quality win).  Their offense has been held to six points by the Ravens and the Raiders, and to seven by the Steelers.

– Cincinnati isn’t good enough to win many games, and they haven’t.  Jimmies and Joes usually beat x’s and o’s. And Cincinnatti only has one Joe worth mentioning and that is Joe Burrow.  He needs an offensive line and soon and he’ll be able to will them to more victories.  And Cincy needs plenty more Jimmies on D.

The Prediction(s)

– The Steelers will lose somewhere along the way.  Don Shula, RIP, will smile from above. The Ravens visit on Thanksgiving night.  But very often a front runner like this 9-0 team is destined for the number one seed and a deep playoff run.  We’re calling the Steelers 14-2, North Division Champions, and the number one AFC seed.  But, we think they’ll fall a bit shy of yet another Super Bowl appearance.

– The Ravens are tough to gauge.  Playing from ahead they are one tough team.  If they trail can Lamar and company win one big one when they need to do so?  They have the Browns, Bengals, Cowboys, Football Team, and the Giants left along with the Titans and the Steelers.  11-5 (our bet) seems like a lock and 12-4 is possible.  Will they be the highest rated wild card seed come January?  From there?  We see one wild card win, then a loss.

–  We’ll fade the Browns.  The only game that we see as an outright win left is the Jets.  The other six, Jaguars and Giants included, will be tough for them.  And, the lockerroom is only a match light away from a dumpster fire.  We see 8-8 for the Browns and another cold winter on Lake Erie.

– The Bengals will “scrap you for a ball” as one Lester Miles used to say about some other Bengals.  They just don’t have enough scrappers.  If Burrow remains upright through December we see a 2-1 run through Washington, Dallas, and the NY Giants.  They’s bow to the Steelers, Ravens, and Miami.  Week 16 is at Houston, and given that mess, we’d call it a toss-up.  Mark us down for 5-10-1 and mark the Bengals down for better things ahead in 2021 and 2022.

 

Abby will weigh in with her picks tomorrow.

But a road trip for the BBR staff to NOLA could make the writing cloudy to nonexistent Monday and Tuesday.

 

After Further Review- AFC East

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Did the new NFL playoff expanded format for 2020 and beyond slip right by you?

The NFL changed its highly approved of, very fair, and long-standing playoff tradition.  It’s the first playoff format change since 1990.

John Madden used to say that December football was different than the months prior.  He said it’s because good teams turn up the effort and solidify their playoff spots or division championships, while average to bad teams play out the string.

Seven teams out of 16 in each conference now make the postseason tourney.  With five or six games left, the possibilities are numerous.

As Thanksgiving approaches, we decided to take a few days this week and next to take a team by team look at each division to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

That series begins today with a look at the AFC East.

The Past

-No it’s not true that the division was renamed this year the AFC East as it was formerly known as the New England Patriots Playground.

-New England won the division 17 of nineteen years since 2001.  Bill Belichick and Tom Brady broke numerous records as a paired coach and QB.

The Outlook

– With Brady long gone the division appeared wide open (except for the dreadful Jets) for the taking in 2020.

-The Bills have been slowly but steadily improving, earning a wild card spot in 2017 and 2019 by building a nice team with a developing Josh Allen at QB.

-Miami traded everything not nailed down two years ago for future assets as well as last year to build from the ground up.  It beats being directionless and some parts were thought to be in place.

The Present

2020 AFC East Standings
TEAM W L T   PCT   PF PA
Buffalo 7 3 0 .700 272 265
Miami 6 3 0 .667 251 182
New England 4 5 0 .444 189 211
New York 0 9 0 .000 121 268

 

– The division is indeed wide open (except for the very dreadful Jets) with New England struggling.  Cam Newton is no Tom Brady.  The recent past two drafts for NE have been short on picks and shorter on developed talent.

–  The Bills enter the bye week with a slim 1/2 game lead, but feel like they are playing catch up.  They had the Sunday game in hand until the Cardinal’s Kyler Murray threw a prayer with seconds remaining and DeAndre Hopkins answered it.  Their D isn’t what it was even just last year, but is showing some tenacity on third downs and creating turnovers.

–  Here come the Dolphins! Five weeks into the season their number one draft pick Tua Tagovailoa hadn’t been under center for one snap.  A week later he entered for mop-up duty against the (have we called them dreadful enough) Jets.  He took the reins during the bye week.  Fast forward three weeks and Tua is three and ohhh so energetic as a starter.  A 1-3 Dolphins September is suddenly a 6-3 season to date after running off five straight wins.  One win was against a good Cardinals team that just delivered on the Hail Mary v Buffalo.

– Never count a Bill Belichick team out.  Repeat.  Never.  For years observers close to the league wondered, Brady aside, how much talent did the Patriots really have? This year they found out.  Not too much.  But.  “Coach said it best — we are a good enough team to be better than what our record kind of displays. We’re just finding that out,” Newton relayed in his weekly interview on sports radio WEEI on Monday morning.  Julian Edelman is nearing full health.  His return should give Cam a very valuable target to add to the up and down offense.  NE can square their record at 5-5 v the woeful Houston Texans this week.  What was the Super Bowl Champion Patriots record after 10 games in 2001, Brady’s first year as a full-time starter?   it was 5-5.

– The Jets are, well, dreadful.  Their record this season speaks for itself.  When you are getting outscored by a 268-121 margin thus far you’re in line for the very first pick of the 2021 draft.  The Jets always pick early, always.  They have question marks from top to bottom in their organization.   You can’t answer the questions at the bottom until you answer the questions at the very top.

The Prediction(s)

– The Buffalo Bills have an easier schedule than the Dolphins and will hold on to win the East at 11-5.  The week off comes at just the right time.  Some physical healing is needed and some mental short term memory loss is as well.  If it’s still up for debate, they host Miami on 12/3, the last regular-season game.  Advantage Bills.

-The surging Dolphins will complete their franchise turnaround a year (at least) earlier than thought and secure a wild card birth at 10-6.  They have three easy (if there is such a thing) games coming up then finish tough (v Chiefs, v Patriots, at Raiders, at Bills.)  Ask the team management now if they would be pleased with 10-6 and a wild card slot.  You bet.

–  The Patriots will continue to win some that you wonder how they did (Belichick game plans like no other) and lose a couple that they wish they hadn’t (is Cam Newton reliable at a high NFL level anymore?) to finish 8-8.

– The Jets’ best chance to win one game this year likely comes this weekend.  They travel three times zones to play the 2-7 Los Angeles Chargers.  The Jets are road dogs by 9.  Vegas has them as a double-digit dog in every other game they have left.  It says here that they will finish a, wait for it, dreadful 0-16.  J-E-T-S.  Jets.  Jets.  Jets!

Next, we tackle the AFC North.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Add 1 and the #1 Seed

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Did the new NFL playoff expanded format for 2020 and beyond slip right by you?  BBR is almost embarrassed to admit that it did for us.

In January and February we saw the playoffs and then the Super Bowl.   What we couldn’t see was the virus spreading at the same time.

By March 23rd our collective panic was at a new high while the stock market bottomed at a multi-year low.   With a nation’s eyes fixated on the pandemic a March 31st NFL announcement came and went without much fanfare.

In it, the NFL changed its highly approved of, very fair, and long-standing playoff tradition.  It’s the first playoff format change since 1990.   Why tinker with success?  Money.  More playoff games mean more TV.   More TV means more revenue.

A few pertinent bullet points about the expanded process follow.

-The AFC and NFC will each have seven playoff teams, but just the top seed from each conference will have a first-round bye in the playoffs.

– In wild-card weekend, the other 12 teams will play — the No. 2 seeds will host 7s, the No. 3 seeds will host 6s and the No. 4 seeds will host 5s.

-For this upcoming season, wild-card weekend will have three games on Saturday, Jan. 9, and three games on Sunday, Jan. 10.

John Madden used to say that December football was different than the months prior.  He said that because good teams turn up the effort and solidify their playoff spots or division championships, while average to bad teams play out the string.

With seven teams out of 16 in each conference now making the postseason tourney, late bloomers have a better chance than ever to emerge.  Also, teams that have a better record than other division winners have one more place to fill in an attempt to breakthrough.

And finally, the number one seed has never been more important as it’s the only one with the aforementioned first-round bye to heal those aches and pains of a season of sixteen games.   The other seeds give it their all for the opportunity to travel to face number one.  That’s a big earned advantage for having the best regular-season record.

With five or six games left, the possibilities are numerous.

With Thanksgiving nearly upon us, we decided to take a few days this week and next to take a team by team look at each division to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

That series, barring the unforeseen, begins tomorrow.