Wagers?

Walk the Walk and Talk the Talk, Part 2

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It seems like a week ago, but it wasn’t.  Some nine weeks ago we wrote the following.

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  

We’ll list the win total, it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  

And, in short order we took Kansas over, Oregon over, Kentucky under, Mississippi St. under, and Texas A&M over.  Yesterday we updated the first 3 of our 5 picks.  Today, with a mere five weeks left to the regular season we decided (actually a favorite reader of ours suggested yesterday) to review the final 2.   After all if you are going to talk the talk, you better be prepared to walk the walk.

2.  Mississippi St. under 8 wins, bet $155 to win $100, current record 3-5

– After a 3-1 start against two cupcakes and Kentucky, the Bulldogs hit the proverbial wall.  They have lost four in a row as the schedule stiffened.

– Head Coach Joe Moorhead has to be scratching his head.  And, Bulldog alumni must be scratching theirs as well.  And, the mascot must be scratching his………  Dan Mullen took this program to high points not seen around StarkVegas in many moons.  Moorhead is in a tough spot following that act.  The SEC West is tough.  Recruiting to Starkville is tougher.

– Worst outcome.  There is no worst case for the bet unless a tornado hits Starkville (which could cause improvements actually)and cancels a game or a portion thereof nullifying the bet.

– Best outcome.  State finishes all four contests with a win or a loss.  The bet is already a win as the win total maxes out at seven even if State runs the tables.

– Outlook.  With a road trip to Arkansas, a layup (Abilene Christian University-seriously?), a loss to Bama, and an Egg Bowl battle with Ole Miss looming, we smell rotten eggs at 2-2.  A 5-7 record is a win for BBR and a big step back for Moorhead and staff.

– Prediction.  Moorhead gets one more year to right the ship, and the bet has already won $100.

1.Texas A&M over 7 1/2 wins, bet $120 to win $100, current record 5-3

– With arguably the toughest schedule in the nation A&M has won the games they were favored in and lost those that they were underdogs.

– In year two of his iron clad, ten year contract HC Jimbo Fisher, aka the QB whisperer, hasn’t whispered the right sweet nothings into the ear of second year starting QB Kellon Mond.  Hence, the hoped for leap forward has been sideways.

Worst Outcome.  A&M continues to win the winnable ones and lose the expected ones and the bet loses by 1/2 game as they finish 7-5.

Best Outcome.  The Aggies upset either Georgia or LSU on the road and win the easier remaining home games and they finish 8-4.

Outlook.  This one is tough.  We thought that they would beat Auburn which would have gotten the likely record to 8-4, but they didn’t.  SC beat Georgia in Athens two weeks ago.  Can it happen again?  Sure.  If Florida beats Georgia this weekend, thereby knocking Georgia out of the playoff picture, we’ll then predict an Aggie late season win.  If Georgia has to beat the Aggies to get to ATL for the SEC Championship game we think they will hold serve between the hedges.

Prediction.  We’ve stuck our neck out this far, why not once more?  Aggies beat UTSA and SC at home and Georgia there.  LSU beats A&M to close the season.  Aggies go 8-4 and the bet wins $100.

If our latest predictions hold true a 4-1 record and a nice payoff await.  Worst case we are probably looking at 3-2 and a positive payoff.

One prediction we can safely make is that we will be back next year with more season long predictions v. the win total.  The bet never fails to entertain, and it lasts all season long.  Well it does unless you’re Joe Moorhead, thankfully.

 

 

 

Walk the Walk and Talk the Talk

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It seems like a week ago, but it wasn’t.  Some nine weeks ago we wrote the following.

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most. 

And, in short order we took Kansas over, Oregon over, Kentucky under, Mississippi St. under, and Texas A&M over.  Today, with a mere five weeks left to the regular season we decided (actually a favorite reader of ours suggested) to review the first 3 of our 5 picks.   After all if you are going to talk the talk, you better be prepared to walk the walk. Tomorrow we conclude with the final two.

5.  Kansas over 3 wins, bet $100 to win $130, current record 3-5

–  The Jayhawks lost in week 2 to Coastal Carolina.  Jeez.  The bet would be a winner in just eight weeks if they would have taken care of a non FBS opponent at home.  We repeat, “at home.”

–  Head Coach Les Miles fired his OC on 10/6.  He announced that Brent Dearmon had been promoted to the role in place of Les Koenning, who was dismissed from the program. Koenning was part of Miles’ initial Kansas staff this offseason.  The results were immediately positive.  They put 48 on Texas and 37 on Texas Tech in the last two weeks.

– Worst outcome.  Worst case the bet pushes (no money is lost nor won) as they have three wins already.

– Best outcome.  We win the bet with one more victory with four games left.

– Outlook.  With Kansas St., Iowa St., Oklahoma St., and Baylor left the road is uphill.  They’ll likely be underdogs by double digits in all four contests.

– Prediction.  Ole Les Miles, aka The Mad Hatter, pulls one more Jayhawk win out of his hat.  The bet wins $130.

4.  Oregon over 9 wins, bet $100 to win $105, current record 7-1

– The Ducks led until the last seven seconds in the season opener v. Auburn.  It is their lone loss to date.

– The Ducks are in the meat of their schedule but can rely on an above average defense for once in addition to their always productive O.  The road win at Washington two weeks ago was helpful.  They have their sites set on winning out to get into the playoff conversation. That’s good for the wager.

– Worst outcome.  If the Ducks take on water and paddle to a 1-3 or 0-4 finish the bet could still tank.

– Best outcome.  A 3-1 or 4-0 finish makes the ticket a winner.

– Outlook.  Oregon finishes with at USC, home Arizona, at Arizona St, and home Oregon St.  They are favored by 4 1/2 v USC this week.  It’s the toughest game left for them, though an Arizona St. night road battle could be troublesome.  The two home games are wins if they come to play.  Mario Cristobal has had them ready for every game so far.

– Prediction.  A loss to USC and three wins to close out the season makes their record 10-2.   The bet wins $105.

3.  Kentucky under 6 1/2 wins, bet $100 to win $100, current record 4-4

– The Wildcats up and down season was expected as a program like this would struggle to replace what Bennie Snell and Josh Allen brought to the team last year.

– A bad effort and loss to Miss St. was offset by a put down of Missouri this past weekend 29-7.

– Worst outcome.  With three games remaining at home and all four games winnable, the bet crashes and burns.

– Best outcome.  An improving Tennessee team follows up last week’s win with another this week in Kentucky and Vandy at home knocks them off the week thereafter.  That puts them at 6-6 at best.

– Outlook.  After the two games above they host TN-Martin and Louisville.  TN Martin is a win and if they need a win over in state rival Louisville at home to get bowl eligible they might just show their teeth.

– Prediction. – TN Martin gives them 5 wins.  Can they win two of three from Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Louisville?  The Wildcats O struggles to score against good defenses, but we only see one decent D on this four game dance card.  It says here that they win three of the last four to finish 7-5, but we are still quite hopeful that they could finish 6-6.  The bet loses $100.

Tomorrow we’ll review the final two, Mississippi St. under and Texas A&M over.

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NCAA Football

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Time for your nuggets.   Time for a diet too.   There were too many boudain balls consumed this weekend by the staff covering the LSU-Auburn game live.  Grilled below are the tasty, but healthy treats with a side of some AP Top 25 NCAA football teams and their performance or lack thereof.

  1.  There is a new #1.  LSU beat it’s third top 10 opponent this season on Saturday.  Auburn fought hard, but came up short on a soaked field Saturday in BR.  For the first time this year the D carried LSU’s O.  The next “Game of the Century,” a term used far too often obviously, takes place in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 9.  LSU travels to Bama for a #1 v. #2. throwdown.  And throw they will.  It’s also a Tua v. Burrow throwdown.   It has a Heisman making moment opportunity written all over it.
  2. THE and Clemson remain entrenched at #3 and #4.  One or both will benefit from the Game of the Century loser’s drop.  Though, the first playoff poll comes out a week from today.  Maybe the committee will see the on field performances differently that the AP writers?  THE still has Penn St. and Michigan on their dance card.  Clemson has a bunch wallflowers.
  3. Poof!  There went Oklahoma.  Undefeated and #5 last week is old news now as Kansas St. put 48 on the Okie D winning 48-41 in a game that wasn’t actually 7 points close.  Penn St. rose one to #5.  You aren’t elite if you cannot play D.
  4. Florida is #6 and can take control of the SEC East this week as it’s one loss team travels to Jacksonville to meet one loss # 8 Georgia.  The World’s Largest Outdoor Party, formerly known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,  will eliminate one team from playoff possibilities and elevate the other.  Speaking of eliminate, did eliminating the word “cocktail” from the moniker reduce the alcohol consumption?  We think not.  But it is PC.
  5.  Here comes the PAC 12.  A week ago Oregon and Utah were #11 and #12.  A week later they have risen to #7 and #9.  Both one loss teams keep stacking up solid victories.  And this coming weekend they’ll have a chance to continue that.  Oregon beat Washington St, always a pesky opponent for them.  Utah shut the door on the California Bears 35-0.  Their objective is to keep winning and meet in the PAC 12 Championship, take a look at the carnage around them, and argue that they deserve a Power Five Conference Champion shot at the final 4.  It’s possible with the collisions that will take place between teams currently ranked higher.
  6.  Oklahoma dropped 5 spots to #10, and Auburn dropped but two to #11 with the above mentioned losses.  Notre Dame dropped from #8 to #16 after Khaki Boy and the Wolverines pounded them in Ann Arbor.  The next time that we need to listen to ND inclusion in the playoff conversation will be 2020 at best.
  7. Two weeks ago undefeated Wisconsin was sitting pretty at #5.  Two weeks and two ugly losses later, the most recent a 38-7 trouncing by THE, Whisky checks in at #18.
  8.  Their losses have opened the door for someone to walk through from the west side of the BIG 10 to be a double digit dog to either THE or Penn St. in that conference championship tussle.  Golden Gophers any one?  Yep.  The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 8-0 and stand at unlucky #13.  Minnie has played exactly zero ranked opponents to date.  But, they’ve beaten everyone that they have played.  With Penn St., Iowa, and Wisconsin dead ahead for Minnie, beating everyone that they have yet to play will be a tall task.
  9.  Baylor and SMU have also beaten everyone that they have played.  They are both 8-0 and sit at #12 and #18 respectively.  Baylor has a path as Texas and Oklahoma loom.  Beat them both and shout your name loudly.  Maybe the playoff committee will hear you.  SMU really doesn’t.  Speaking of Texas, they fell all of the way out of the top 25 with a 37-27 loss to TCU.  Like Oklahoma, Texas is soft on D.
  10. Some early lines are out.  Oregon travels to USC and is a 4 1/2 point pick.  Utah travels to Washington and is a 2 point fav.  The PAC 12 gets picture gets much clearer come midnight Saturday EST.  Also, after a few cocktails in Jacksonville, Georgia will be a four point favorite over Florida.

It looks like a salad week to me.

..

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Nine

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Vegas giveth.  Vegas taketh.

We should have known better.  Abby’s nose was warm to the touch last week.  She felt like a dog.   But she insisted that she had a hunch about the games and the lines.  It turns out that she was right on her hunch bet again and wrong on most all else.

For the season she has won 19 games and lost 21.  More importantly she has collected 38 bones and lost 37.  If you haven’t been on her hunch bet after a 9-2 season last year, you should be on it this year.  It’s now 7 wins against only 2 losses.  Bow wow!

Abby’s nose is cool bordering on cold and so is the fall football weather.   Abby’s chasing winners this week, no more parked cars.

Mississippi St v. Texas A&M -10 1/2 —  In a marron and white v. maroon and white game Abby likes the home unis.  A&M has more to play for.  Moo St. looks like it might be closing down shop for a long winter.  Two bones.

Indiana v. Nebraska -2 1/2 —  In a red and white v. red and white game Abby likes the home unis.  As the morning frost melts Scott Frost’s tenure at Lincoln needs to heat up.  Indiana is a surprising 5-2, but Big Red rolls by 14.  Two bones.

Texas -1 1/2 v. TCU  —  Tom Herman’s tenure at Texas needs to warm up, too.  And, Texas needs a defense.  It took 50 points and a last second field goal for them to dispatch Kansas.  Jeez.  Abby thinks Herman gets them going this week, and the Burnt Orange rolls by 14.  Two bones.

Texas Tech v. Kansas +3 1/2 —  Les Miles fired his previous OC three games in after they scored all of seven on Costal Carolina.  The result a few weeks later?  They put 48 on Texas last week.  If only he did the same at LSU a few years back.  Jeez.  Jayhawks win this one straight up.  Two bones.

California +21 1/2 v. Utah —  Abby continues to contend that no one in the PAC 12 should be favored over anyone else by 14 much less 21 and change.  This seems like a lot of points in what should be a low scoring game.  One bone.

On a hunch take Washington St. plus 14 1/2 at Oregon.  Abby continues to contend that no one in the PAC 12 should be favored over anyone else by 14.   Washington St. usually plays the Ducks pretty closely.   Maybe the Cougars can lose a close shootout after Oregon’s big road win over Washington a week ago.

Woof.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Seven

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

It’s hard to believe but after Saturday 50% of the regular NCAA season will be gone.  But, 50% remains.  And, what remains will be the better half as conference play is now the norm.

Abby and her bank account reaches the halfway mark just a bit ahead of that 50/50 area.  For the season her picks are 15 up v. 15 down.  The more important bones collected are 30 up and 28 down.  And, her amazing (dog) run on hunch (LY was 9-1) bets continues this year, now standing at 5 wins and only 2 losses.

Halloween is still three weeks away.  Some of the lines are a bit spooky.  Bravely, to the boneyard we go!

Virginia v. Miami -2 —  Virginia’s head coach is a Broncho, but Miami’s team speed is a Mustang.  It’ll be 90 degrees with 90 percent humidity down there tomorrow night.  Miami sweats out a late Cavalier drive and wins by more than 2 and less than 7.  One bone.

Oklahoma v. Texas +11 —  Texas upset Oklahoma last year in the Red River Rivalry.  A few years back this was called the Red River Shootout.    The PC crowd was upset about the violent name.  Nobody in the Big 12 plays violently, so what’s the big deal?  Expect a lot of scoring in this shootout.  Oklahoma gets the win, but so does Texas and the points.  One bone.

Mississippi St. v Tennessee + 7 —  This is Abby’s game of the month. How much better can it get?   It’s a bulldog vs. a blue tick hound!  And, the hound dog is a live home dog.  A straight up win by the Volunteers is possible.  There might even be a dog pile in the checkerboard endzone post game.  Four bones.

Cincinnati v. Houston + 7 1/2 —  The Bearcats are riding high after a home upset of UCF and have arrived in the AP Top 25 this week at #25.  They might leave H Town with a straight up loss and fall back into the dreaded “others receiving votes” mix mash.  One bone.

UAB -12 v. UTSA —  This is the eye chart game with all capital letters.  So far this year UAB passes the eye test.  That little bird that Abby keeps telling us about has a birdseye view of this one.  One bone.

The left coast has been great to Abby for hunches that win bunches.  Last week 16 point favorite Washington lost straight up to Stanford.   This week they are favored in Tuscon by 6 over the Arizona Wildcats.  Abby feels like the odds makers are begging you to take Arizona.  On a hunch she likes the Huskies doggone it.

 

Abby has again assigned the BBR staff to cover the LSU game live.  Work, work, work.

Woof, woof, woof!

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Six

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Psst.  You heard the one about the old dog and new tricks?  Don’t tell Abby.  She walked around the global headquarters of BBR last week with the hair standing straight up on her back.  She subscribes to the Vince Lombardi mantra, “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.”  And after last Saturday, Coach Lombardi, from high above is proud of Abby.  Her picks cashed on four of the five games.  Even better than that, the bones won were nine of the ten wagered!  Woof, woof!  Her hunch bet also pawed the paydirt.

For the season Abby is now 13 of 25 on the picks, and importantly 25 of 48 bones.  Her hunch bet is now four up and only two down.  That’s enough scratching of her back.  It’s time to get back to the work of the weekend ahead.

Tulane v. Army +3 — It’s Homecoming for the Cadets.  Abby’s barking about a straight up win.  Abby wonders if Tulane’s D can stop the Army’s ground attack?   Is the right team favored?  Two bones.

Texas v West Virginia +10 1/2 —  WVa is a much better team at home than the road.  She likes home dogs.  Might Texas be a tad bit sluggish on the East Coast coming off of a bye and looking ahead to the Red River Shootout v. Oklahoma next week?  Abby says the Horns pull this out of the fire late, something like 35-31.  Two bones.

Auburn v. Florida (over 49) —  Lee Corso can put on a Gator, War Eagle, Plainsman, or Tiger hat and all Abby will do is yawn.  This one is billed as a mighty defensive struggle.  Abby likes to zig when others zag.  One bone.

Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -7 —  Ole Miss isn’t very good.  The cellar of the West Division of the SEC awaits.  Vandy is worse.  The cellar of the East Division of the SEC awaits.  It’s tough to wager too much on a bad team, but Abby is yapping loudly about the Black Bears.  Two bones.

Utah St. v. LSU (under 73) —  LSU’s new fangled offense is due for a pit stop somewhere on this record setting road, isn’t it?  Conversely, LSU’s defense is past due at the toll booth, isn’t it?  Abby might be chasing a parked car here.  But, with an 11 AM kickoff she’ll beat the rush hour.  Three Bones.

Abby mentioned last week that no one deserved to be a double digit dog in the PAC 12 v. anyone else in the PAC 12 except maybe Oregon St.  On a hunch take Stanford +16 at home v. Washington.  Abby is a big fan of The Tree for obvious reasons.

The uncharacteristically slow start to the season looked like it aged Abby almost one dog year.  No more.   The bounce is back in her stride.

Enjoy the games as the conference tilts are upon us.

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Five

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby promised to make money rain last week.  Unfortunately the “bad beat” gods rained on her instead.  Two games v the spread were lost by 1/2 point in her regular picks.  Her hunch bet had a dog house, back door late cover by 1/2 point as well.  Oh well.   For the season Abby has won 9 of 20 picks.  Her bone collection is buried in some backyard mud at 16 of 38.  Hunch bets have won three, and lost but two.

Week five features games almost as underwhelming as week three.  Only one top 25 matchup is on the card.  It’s # 10 ND hosting #18 Virginia.  Abby isn’t yapping about the choices, but she isn’t napping just yet either.  It’s time for this doggie to give the readers a treat, and to the picks we go.

Clemson v North Carolina +27 —  The Mack Brown miracle has been put on pause.  Clemson has hit its stride.  It’s a good spot for a back door cover to get even with last week’s beats.  One bone.

Iowa St. v Baylor +2 1/2 —  Abby loves home dogs.  She especially loves it when she thinks that the wrong team is favored.  Three bones.

Minn v Purdue + 1 1/2 —   Did we mention that Abby loves home dogs?  Did we mention that she especially loves it when she thinks that the wrong team is favored?  One bone.

Kansas St v Oklahoma St. – 4 —  Kansas St. has played better in year one without Bill Snyder than expected so far.  Oklahoma St. is smarting from a loss in a valiant effort v. Texas last week.  Abby says the Cowboys cover late in a lower than expected total score.  Three bones.

Penn St -6 v Maryland —  Before Abby heads in for her nap, she wants everyone to know that she thinks America is sleeping on the Nittany Lions.  Expect Maryland to be fired up at home, but expect Penn St to wear them out late.  Two bones.

Does any PAC 12 team deserved to be favored by 10 points over any other, Oregon St. aside?  Washington is favored by 10 over visiting USC.  The line seems out of bounds.  Hunch bets are made on outliers.  She thinks that Vegas is screaming at you to take USC.  She’ll take the Huskies, a favorite dog of hers to begin with.

Abby is a day early this week for logistical reasons.  It’s better than a day late.  And, her picks aren’t a dollar short.

Woof!

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year Two, Week Four

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby had some extra time to analyze her picks this week.  A tropical storm named Imelda visited her neighborhood and dropped a lot of rain.   Abby stayed high and dry watching game film.  She needed to.  Her season is off to a just below water start.   Through three weeks Abby has correctly picked 7 of 15 games and garnered 14 of 29 bones bet.  Her hunch bet, a sterling 9-1 last year, continues to hold water at 3-1 this year.  Arizona St. plus and the game under the total was a win win for her last week.  The well researched picks are below.

Utah -3 v. USC — The Utes are simply better than USC.  And they are better than the Trojans by more than a skinny field goal.   And they are way better if they trade for a rifle as Washington St. coach Mike Leach hysterically runs down that possibility in a must see 90 second video here.    Two bones.

LSU v. Vanderbilt +24 —  LSU is 3-0 v the spread.  LSU has numerous starters missing this week due to injury or suspension.  The kickoff is 11 AM.  We wonder if the Tigers won’t be a bit sleepy in the first half.  Two bones.

USA v. UAB – 10—  That bird that told us UAB is a good bet last week told us it’s a good bet this week.  Abby is a bird dog.  Make sense?  One bone.

Okla St. v Texas -6 1/2 —  This game is usually a shootout.  It might well be again, but doggone it Abby thinks Texas gets a stop or two on D to open the game up by a couple of scores in the fourth quarter.  Three bones.

UCLA +18 1/2 v. Washington St. —  Chip Kelly was famous 10 years ago.  UCLA was last good roughly ten years ago.  They are bad now.  So is Kelly’s coaching thus far.  Abby wonders if the Cougars won’t be looking ahead a bit to next week’s Utah matchup. One bone.

The Texas A&M/Auburn game total is only 47 1/2.  That seems low doesn’t it?  On a hunch Abby barks about it not being low enough.  On a hunch take under the total.

Put on your poncho this weekend.  With the bets above Abby will make the money rain.

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 3

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby urged caution last week, and a tricky week 2 in college football betting it was for all.  No bets are free unlike all of the promises of free she heard last night in Houston emanating from the ten Democratic Presidential Debate podiums where begging was very much in style.

Through two weeks Abby is a below average 4 games of 10 picked correctly.  More importantly she’s gathered 11 of 21 bones, just enough to balance the checkbook an have a gnaw too. Her hunch bet (Maryland -1.5) covered and then some.  To the picks we go.

Kansas St. @ Miss St. -7.5 —  Who is the loneliest person in Starkville?  The tooth fairy of course.  Let the cowbells ring.  This one won’t be close.  Three bones.

NC St. @ West Virginia +7 —  Is NC St. that good to be made a 7 point road favorite?  Is WVa that bad to be made a 7 point home dog?  One bone.

Maryland @ Temple +7 —  Maryland has scored 142 points in two games, good for the fourth highest point total in NCAA history.  The nation took notice.  We think they spent this week admiring the shine on their Terrapin shell.  One bone.

USC @ BYU +4 —  We aren’t sure that the correct team is favored here.  We thought about the money line.  Abby will settle for making money at plus 4.  One bone.

Florida -8 @ Kentucky —  Dan Mullen might be one of the most underrated Power 5 college coaches in America.  Florida’s D is quick to the ball and wraps up like a Gator death roll.  Kentucky’s QB is out and you don’t replace Josh Allen and Bennie Snell easily in Lexington.  Close, but the Gators cover late.  Two bones.

On a hunch Abby likes Arizona St. plus 15 and 1/2 to cover v. Michigan St.  The over/ under in the game is only 41 and 1/2.  It’s so low.  It’s so, so low.  On hunch #2 we’ll take under on a zig bet when others zag.

And, lastly we have an important announcement.  Abby is considering a run for President.  Her platform does not include free universal veterinarian care for pooches nor free meals for strays.  She has, however,  promised to fulfill her obligation to BBR throughout this football season.   Whew!

Woof!

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 2

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Abby’s offseason wasn’t spent howling at the moon.  Her rigorous research began to pay off in week one.  While only two of five against the spread picks cashed her bones won were six while her bones lost were only four.  We’ll take 60% money all season long if we can get it.  Her hunch parlay bet split(lost), as the under covered and the over fell just shy.

College football picking isn’t easy.   The smart money in Vegas (called the Sharps) focuses on a narrow window of analytics and doesn’t stray (Abby doesn’t like strays either).

That’s why it’s important for her to risk various amounts (bones) to weight average the risk.  Remember one bone equals $11 risked to win $10.

She urges great caution every year in week two.  Over reactions to good or bad play in week one can feel like chasing parked cars come late Saturday night.

Wake Forest at Rice +20 — Rice isn’t a very good football team.   But, they are beginning to play a bit if D in downtown H town.  And, it’s hot in downtown H Town.  Very.  100 degrees hot is predicted at game time.  That’s why smart Owls only come out at night.  One bone.

UAB -8.5 at Akron —  A little bird is chirping in Abby’s ear about UAB being a smart money play all year.  Abby normally chases birds away, but she’s embracing this one.  Two bones.

Texas A&M +18 at Clemson — Betting against Clemson is indeed like a dog chasing the proverbial parked car.  Abby has a soft spot for Reveille, the A&M mascot, but won’t let puppy love interfere with money.  A&M is a legit dog.  Three bones.

BYU at Tennessee -3.5 —  One of Abby’s credos to live by is to “never kick a blue tick hound when he is down.”  This one falls squarely in the over reaction of week one category.  Tennessee looked like road kill in week one.  Three bones.

Miami -5 at North Carolina —  Dorian the Hurricane is pounding the North Carolina Outer Banks as Abby digs through these lines.  The Miami Hurricanes, if they can fix their woeful OL blocking, will do the same to the Tar Heels.  The sunshine was on Mack Brown for a week.  It’s raining now.  Two bones.

The line of Maryland -1.5 hosting Syracuse makes no doggone sense to us.   When it seems so odd Abby likes to play a hunch bet.  Take Maryland over a 21st ranked Orangeman team that might be looking ahead to hosting Clemson next week.

Enjoy the games and say a prayer for The Bahamas and for New Mexico St.  They go to Tuscaloosa, AL as a 56 point dog!  Woff!!