Wagers?

All Aboard in College Station

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA college football season is rolling.   How about one more big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s conclude today with our favorite year long bets.  It’s season long win totals.  So far we have shared four of our selections on over or under the win totals.   A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, both sides of the bet and it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most.  Our favorite pick follows after the drum roll provided by the historic Fightin’ Texas A&M Aggie Band.

Texas A&M (7 and 1/2 wins, over -120, under -110)

  • On the surface this choice might surprise.   After all, A&M probably has the hardest schedule in the nation.  They have road games at Clemson, Georgia, and LSU.  And, Alabama rolls in to College Station like a freight train as well.  Their entire schedule is here.
  • One tier down is Auburn, Mississippi St., and South Carolina.  The lower half SEC West foes Arkansas and Ole Miss complete the conference scheduling.
  • Texas St., Lamar, and UTSA out of conference are three very needed breathers interspersed on the fall death march.
  • Jimbo Fisher enters year two of his needed cultural remake of the Aggies.  Kellen Mond improved over the last half of last season.  Jimbo, the QB whisperer, continues to mold the Mo(u)nd of clay.
  • The offense will miss Jace Sternberger at tight end and Erik McCoy at center.  Both will play well on Sunday, not Saturday, this fall.  But the receiving corp is deep and talented.  The running backs are more than serviceable.  The offensive line will be just fine.
  • The defense loses five solid defenders from a tough to run on group.  But, still they return five starters.
  • Fisher’s first recruiting class ranked third nationally.  Expect significant contributions from there as the season unfolds.

After last year’s, last game, seven overtime win over LSU Fisher addressed the group.  He said, “this is the last time we’ll celebrate finishing second in the SEC West.”  The buy in on the sell in is nearly complete.

We expect A&M to upset one of Clemson, Georgia, Alabama,  or LSU.  They are good enough and coached top to bottom quite well.  We expect them to beat Auburn at home and run the table on the rest of the tough Western Division. South Carolina(east opponent #2) isn’t that good and the game is in Aggieland.

A&M will score early and often this year.  Their defense will surrender some early but gain steam late.

We see the Aggies as a 9-3 team best case, and 8-4 worst case.

Give us the over on the Jimbo train that pulled into CS a year ago.

Over and out!

P.S.  LSU’s win total is 8 and 1/2.  We cannot see them as worse than 9-3.  On a hunch (Abby would be so proud) bet take the Tigers at -125 on the over.

 

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 2, Week 1

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Year one for Abby’s weekly column was quite a success.  Back by popular demand Abby barks out her thoughts on week one of year two.

College football picking isn’t easy.   The smart money in Vegas (called the Sharps) focuses on a narrow window of analytics and doesn’t stray (Abby doesn’t like strays either).  If the betting line doesn’t meet their tight standards window they punt.

Abby takes a broader view when making her choices.  This can be more difficult.  That’s why it’s important for her to risk various amounts (bones) to weight average the risk.

For her inaugural journey she won 22 bets, lost 23, and tied one against the Vegas lines.  Importantly, she won 59 of 108 bones wagered.  That is a win percentage of 55%.  Each bone is $11 to win $10.  Thus, she finished plus $51 dollars on the year.  It’s didn’t take down the Vegas Strip, but it did afford a better grade of dog food than Kibbles & Bits.

Perhaps her hunch bets should have been part of the bones wagered.  The hunch bet finished year one with nine great wins versus only one loss.  That record will be difficult to match.

Some of her favorite mascots are back to bark words of encouragement to her.  So, as we near the end of the dog days of summer we begin year two with week one, always a dangerous one to sink your canines into.

Heads up.  Two of these winners go tonight.

Utah -5.5 v. BYU  — Abby smells a wide open PAC 12 race once again.  She’s pawing around with the idea of making the Utes the favorites to win it.  Too many good players vs. not enough makes this an easy week one cover.  Three bones.

FIU v. Tulane -2.0— Way down yonder in New Orleans Abby sees a well coached Green Wave team winning a lot of games this year.  Bonus points if you can name the FIU coach.  Butch Davis!  Double bonus points if you can name the Tulane Head coach.  Willie Fritz! Three bones.

Massachusetts +16.5 v. Rutgers  — Abby has been waiting for any chance to spot a flea.  Rutgers it is.   Should Rutgers be favored over anyone by 16?  Abby thinks Dog Obedience School should only be single digit underdogs to them.  Two Bones.

Colorado St. +13.5 v. Colorado –Rocky Mountain High has taken on a whole new meaning in recent years.  Abby wonders if the oddsmakers are smoking a bit of the state’s #1 crop these days with this line.  The Rams might even make this one interesting late in the evening when everyone has the munchies and are ordering pizza.  One bone.

Oregon +3.5 v. Auburn — This is the best game on an opening day season hunt that makes you want to leave your retrievers at home.   Somehow this comes down to a field goal to make the Ducks the hunted and the Plainsman the hunters.  One bone.

Abby is back at it.  Three dogs and two favs.

Oh, and on a hunch, parlay Kent St and Arizona St over 62 with Utah and BYU under 48.5.

Woof!

 

 

 

 

Two Down Under in the SEC

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As we wrote yesterday, the NCAA college football season is here.   How about a big hooray?  HOORAY!

Let’s continue today with our favorite year long bet.  It’s season long win totals.  Today we continue a three part series that examines our selections on over or under the win totals.   A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, both sides of the bet and it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most.  Let’s continue with the march to our favorite pick as we ascend the ladder today with picks numbered 3 and 2.

3.  Kentucky (6 and 1/2 wins, over is -130, under is +100)

  • There is stability at the HC position with Mark Stoops entering year seven leading the Wildcats.  It hasn’t been that way in the Bluegrass State in a long time. But.
  • The stability lost that came with Benny Snell running and All American LB Josh Allen running down ball carriers isn’t easily replaceable.  This is especially true in Lexington.
  • Also, the Wildcats must replace 12 starters as they return an SEC fewest 10 starters in 2019.  All four starters in the secondary left or graduated.
  • While the out of conference schedule looks tame (Toledo, Eastern Michigan, UT Martin, and Louisville) by name, don’t sleep on the MAC West Toledo squad.  Further, while it’s fun to kick your instate rivals Louisville while they are down, this winner of this late season match up often surprises.  We see 3-1 here.
  • While the Wildcats draw lowly Arkansas (home) and Mississippi St. (away) from the SEC West, they still must go 4-4 in the SEC overall if they win but 3 of 4 nonconference games to cover 6.5 wins.
  • If you split (likely)the two SEC West opponents, and lose to Georgia, Florida, and Missouri (all likely), can you beat South Carolina there, and Vanderbilt there, and Tennessee at home?

2. Mississippi St. (8 wins, over is +125, under is -155)

  • BBR cashed last year on the under bet on Miss St.  It’s rare that we go back to the same well.  But.
  • The most important position battle that will take place will be at the quarterback position. Southeastern Conference rushing record holder Nick Fitzgerald has completed his five years of service in Starkville.
  • Heading into his junior campaign, Keytaon Thompson is 2-0 as a starter and looks to be the favorite to replace Fitzgerald.  “Looks to be” is different than “is hands down.”  The SEC has several qb’s entering year two and beyond starting for their respective teams.  Year one through this gauntlet will have it’s moments.
  • The Bulldogs have talent on D, but lost some elite talent on D as well, particularly up front where it is a must have.  Three of the starting 11 on defense were picked in the 1st round of the 2019 NFL Draft (safety Johnathan Abram, linemen Montez Sweat, and Jeffery Simmons), and there are 7 starters to replace in total, including the entire front 4.  Only Bama reloads a roster that talented on a yearly basis.
  • We’ll spot them four wins OOC as that is likely.  Cupcakes abound.  But, to cover the over they need five SEC wins in eight opportunities for a nine win total.
  • Home games are Kentucky, LSU, Alabama, and Ole Miss.  That has 2-2 written all over it which means they need to go 3-1 on the SEC road.
  • From 9/28 through 11/ 2 they are at Auburn, off, at Tennessee, home for LSU, at Texas A and M, and at Arkansas.  At best those four roadies have 2-2 written all over them as well.  A push is possible then, but a misstep is likely, making under the choice.
  • We don’t love the price at minus 155, but we love under 8 as the outcome.

Tomorrow we’ll feature our chosen one (not the Prez) and give you a few random picks as well.

Our Crystal Ball on Pooka and Cristobal

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA college football season is here.   How about a big Hooray?  HOORAY!  Of course if you watched last weekend’s very abbreviated scheduled head liner, you might have thought it was a head scratcher at best.  Florida outlasted Miami in a mistake filled, sloppy tackling, turnover prone, penalty laden affair.  It was a forgettable game.  So forget it.

Let’s get to our favorite head scratching year long bet.  It’s season long win totals.  Today we begin a three part series that examines our selections on over or under the win totals.   A couple of reminders/refreshers on the bet are in order.  First, the team must play it’s entire schedule for a bet to actualize.  And, second, there is a different payout for under than over based on the action to that side of the bet.  Not often, but sometimes the actual win total will slide up or down (usually a half game) if the action is all on one side.

We’ll list the win total, both sides of the bet and it’s cost, make a selection in bold, and give you our thoughts on why we like that side of the bet.  After all our guess is as good better than most.  Let’s kick off with picks we like plenty enough to bet, and ascend in the next 72 hours towards our most favorite ones.

5.  Kansas ( 3 wins, over +130, under -160)

  • Pooka (best first name in the FBS) Williams, an All American Freshman last year, was suspended in the off season for domestic abuse.  Shame on him.  Kansas reinstated him after a six month time out just in time for the fall practices and now games.  Shame on them.  But, if you like the over this is why you bet it.  Pooka single handedly kept Kansas in games last year.
  • At LSU Les Miles often took more talent onto the field than his opposition.  And, he lost more often with that talent than he should have.  But, he beat Oklahoma two out of his four years at Oklahoma St.  Back then he often took less talent and won over more talent in the Big 12.  Having less talent isn’t a problem for Les this year as he will likely enter 10 of 12 games as a slight to huge underdog.
  • Bad news.  The defense has as many as eight new starters.  Good news.  The defense has as many as eight new starters.
  • The two games that they will be favored in are the first two of the season as they host Indiana St. and Coastal Carolina.
  • Win those two and you need to find two more to win the bet, or one more to at least push. Along the way they host West Virginia (new head coach), Kansas St.(new head coach and rival), and Baylor (not too too good).   We like them to win two of the three in some form or fashion.
  • The payout of 10 to win 13 is appealing.

4.  Oregon (9 wins, over +105, under -130)

  • Head Coach Mario Cristobal enters year two of his head coaching stint with the Ducks.  We like the upside v. the betting line in year two of coaches that we think are capable of making a leap forward.
  • Cristobal was Saban’s offensive line coach and recruiting coordinator for three years at Bama.  The pedigree from his coaching tree is mostly fruitful.  Saban has had way more Jimbo Fisher’s go on to coach other teams than he has had Jim McElwain’s.  If he’s good enough for Ole Nick, he’s good enough for us in a wide open Pac 12.
  • The mighty Ducks don’t play a mighty schedule.  Preseason rankings mean little but that won’t stop us from using them to make a point.  Oregon opens v #16 Auburn at a neutral sight this weekend.  The rest of the schedule has three ranked teams, at #13 Washington,  hosting #23 Washington St. and at #25 Stanford.
  • At currently unranked Arizona St. in week 10 could be a make or break game for the over bet.  But, beat Auburn, and we are talking about a quantum leap forward, not a leap forward.
  • Ten returning starters on offense, led by a potential top draft pick in Justin Herbert makes us lean to the over.   Another seven starters are back on defense.
  • The Ducks made a great hire in bringing Avalos over from Boise State.  Cristobal watched Saban salty defense close up in practice every day.  In the PAC 10 a salty defense can go a long way.

Tomorrow we’ll head south for our pick #’s 3 and 2.  We think the two choices above will put your checking account balance heading north.

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-April Madness

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The madness that was March Madness didn’t disappoint due to the calendar turning the page to April.  We have a few nuggets for you to chew on prior to tonight’s final.

  1.  Saturday, in The Final Four matchups, upset minded and upstart Texas Tech stymied a darn good Michigan State team.  Meanwhile, Virginia squeezed by upstart and upset minded Auburn.  The field of 64 narrowed to 2, and tonight it’s down to the one who gets the scissors to cut down the twine.
  2. Virginia is a slight 1 and 1/2 point favorite if you like a wager.  Or, you could place $100 to win $110 on Texas Tech on the money line while Virginia costs you $130 to win $100.  Hmm.  What to do?  What to do?
  3. One bettor has a YUGE (thanks Donald) “what to do?” themselves.  He or she put $1500 on Texas Tech to win it all back in November.  The fat odds then were 200-1.  The potential payday is 300k.   Here is the story.  And, here is the dilemma.  If you have come this far, do you let it ride?  It’s 300k or nothing.  Or, do you hedge the bet?  Maybe you bet 100k on Virgina on the money line tonight.  If you don’t have 100k in loose change stuck in the sofa cushions, you could always borrow it from friends and pay them back plus a bit of the haul.  That would insure a 100k payday at a minimum if Virginia wins, or a 200k payday if Texas Tech wins.  Common sense says that you have to hedge.  Of course, common sense says that $1500 on Texas Tech in November wasn’t using a lot of common sense either.
  4. Common sense also says that Virginia beat Auburn 63-62 in the last second fair and square.  Conspiracy theorists disagree and at least one Auburn fan disagrees.   His feelings poured out right after the game and right at the refs.  You can see the short clip here. But turn down, way down, the volume if you are at work.
  5. If you think that the refs collectively followed some mysterious guidance from the NCAA to get the “blue bloods” into the finals as some have mentioned, we have a question or three for you.  Was the whole game tilted that way, or just the no call double dribble against Virginia and the three-point attempt Auburn foul call?  Why did the NCAA “allow” Texas Tech into the grand finale?  Why not fix that game too?  And, lastly, do you believe that one of the three shots that Lee Harvey Oswald took really came from a sharp shooter behind the grassy knoll?
  6. Speaking of sharpshooters, how about that Guy?  Kyle Guy that is.  Kyle was fouled (per the maybe crooked, maybe biased refs) and very calmly sank three straight free throws, the last of which was taken after a timeout aimed at icing him.  He iced the game for Virginia instead.  Ten years from now you can ask, “Do you remember when that guy hit those three last second free throws to win that game over Auburn?”  Then you can ask what was that guy’s name?  Don’t be that guy.
  7. Is there any hypocrisy in Auburn yelling about cheating?  Watching Bruce Pearl bounce up and down the sidelines after the foul call in disbelief about the refs ruling was just a tad of karma.  Bruce has been accused a time or three of cheating, too, we seem to recall.  One of his Auburn assistants plead guilty in the NCAA/FBI investigation while another was just suspended on March 13th.  He will remain sidelined (not on the sidelines) while the probe into his alleged involvement in a bribery while at Penn U. is investigated.  His acts at Penn might put him in the pen too.  He needs a good defense attorney.
  8. Speaking of good defense, The Red Raiders of Texas Tech play some.  Don’t take our word for it, ask Michigan State.  Or, ask any other team that they have faced in this tournament.  The over/under line for tonight is 118.5.  It’s the lowest point total for a final in 20 years.  Who says defense doesn’t win championships?
  9. Dick Vitale picks Virginia to win it all in a close, low scoring defensive struggle.  Shocker.  Him taking the blue blood team, taking the chalk, and predicting low scoring isn’t exactly groundbreaking.  Dick was once, and for a long time, a breath of fresh air in the gym.  Now, his rhetoric is tired.
  10. We’ll take Texas Tech and over 118.5.  If you haven’t heard, we like to zig when others zag.

Enjoy the final.  You’ll be watching it.  So will Bruce Pearl.  Isn’t karma a beeotch?

Can Lightning Strike Your March Madness Picks?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The national Powerball Lottery jackpot hit $560 million last evening.  Did you win it? The odds were long.  If not, you have another chance at fame and fortune starting today.  Did you fill out your NCAA March Madness Tournament Challenge bracket?

Warren Buffet, who is of some fame and fortune himself, is offering his 400k employees a chance at a million bucks a year for life if they “just” correctly predict the Sweet Sixteen this year.  The calculated chances of that are roughly one in a million.  So you’re saying there is a chance!

That chance is far better than his recent years of bracket challenges when everyone was invited to play for the same payout.  But, then you had to have an entry that stayed clean for all 63 games of the 64 team tourney field.   The chance of that was a not so reasonable 1 in 9.2 quintillion.  How much is a quintillion? It’s one billion billions, or a one followed by 18 zeros. Or, if you are a visual person it’s 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000.   Makes the nation’s debt look pretty manageable, doesn’t it?

Need inspiration, do you?  Early March madness occurred on March 8th when what may be the greatest parlay wager ever to hit at a U.S. sportsbook was placed.   A bettor at a Vicksburg, MS casino placed a $25, 20-leg bet that paid $104,412.44.  The parlay featured point spreads, money lines and over/unders on a mix of Friday night NBA and college basketball games. The bettor backed 14 favorites, three underdogs, and three overs. Every single one hit.  So you’re saying there is a chance!

If you haven’t filled out your bracket yet, you still have a few hours before the first jump ball is tossed up.  March Madness actually ends when one team cuts down the nets in early April.  You know what April brings don’t you?  Showers.  April showers bring, of course, May flowers.

Oh, and if your bracket is still holding up then, you should stay indoors.  One of those showers could bring lightning.  The chances of getting struck by lightning are about 1 in 300,000.  So you’re saying there is a chance!

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NFL

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Sweet and savory and served below, one at a time, are ten NFL nuggets for your digestion.  It was the wild card weekend and it provided some wild moments.

  1. Poof!  And just like that both of the third seeds and one fourth seed are done.  Dallas, a four seed, is the highest rated survivor from the wild Wild Card weekend.  They were also the only home team and division champion to hold serve.
  2. Three lower seeded and visiting teams won on the road.  Two of them dominated.  The Indianapolis Colts and the San Diego Lost in Angeles Chargers won convincingly.
  3. The four losing quarterbacks were Lamar Jackson, DeShaun  Watson, Mitch Trubisky, and Russell Wilson.  They are 22,23,24, and 30 years old respectively.  Their experience in order is rookie, 2nd year, 2nd year, and 7th year.   With age comes experience.  Does experience entering the post season matter?
  4. The four winning quarterbacks were Phillip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Nick Foles, and Dak Prescott.  They are 37,29,29, and 25 years old respectively.  Their experience in order is 17th year, 7th year, 7th year, and 3rd year.  With age comes experience.  Does experience entering the post season matter?
  5.  The Houston Texans won the AFC South Division Championship with an 11-5 record.  But, they did that in name only.  Indy was the better team coming down the stretch.  They started 1-5 yet finished 10-6, coming down the stretch with eight impressive wins and one loss.   After two possessions for each team Saturday it was 14-0 Colts after two “in your face” drives.  School was out and so were the Texans.
  6.  Seattle gave it their all, but Dallas had just a bit more in winning a close one.  If these two teams played ten times they might post five wins each.  The problem for Seattle is that the playoff format is one and done.  Each team’s defense is top five in the league in points allowed and turnovers created.  Dallas has a wee bit more talent on offense.  Seattle has a kicker who does not know how to attempt an onside kick apparently.
  7.  The LA Chargers lost at home to Baltimore three days before Christmas surrendering 22 points to a Raven offense that had a shiny new toy under the tree named Lamar.  It ran like it had fresh batteries.  But like most new toys at Christmas soon the newness wears off.  The Chargers found the off switch.  And suddenly not a creature was stirring, not even a Raven.
  8. Philadelphia looks like a team playing with house money.  They won on the last regular season weekend and coupled with a Vikings loss found themselves in the playoffs.  Then they went to Chicago and found a way to beat the Bears in an entertaining game that had a doink, doink field goal, no good, finish.  The Bears need a new placekicker for the placekicker’s own safety if nothing else.  He is perhaps the most hated Chicago sports figure since Steve Bartman got in the way of a foul fly ball.
  9. This coming weekend has the top two seeds from each conference hosting this past weekend’s winners.  The hosts are rested after having the week off.  Historically three of the top seeds win at home.  But, that’s history.  Philly, Indy, Dallas, and the LA Chargers make for formidable dogs.
  10. Speaking of dogs, the lines are NE(-4) v. LAC, KC(-5) v Indy, LAR(-7) v. Dallas, and NO(-8) v Philly.  Having the week off and having your opponent give it their all the week prior  is a big advantate.  It’s furthered by them having to then travel to face you.  It’s earned during the regular season and very appreciated right about now.  If history holds which of these four home teams lose?  BBR actually thinks two will.  Patriot and Chief fans beware.  Poof!

 

Better to Beware Bettor.

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

After Santa Claus has come and gone comes the final regular season weekend in the NFL.  Santa comes to town the 25th of every December.  You can bank on it.   The last week of the NFL regular season occurs right afterwards.  You can bank on it.  What you cannot bank on, however, is predicting the outcome of NFL games.

And, week 17 is toughest of all.  Why, you might ask? That can be answered with one easy question.  Who cares?  That is the question.  How can you tell which team cares enough in week 17 to actually give it their all.

Reasons for indifference about winning this Sunday abound.  If you are in the playoffs do you rest some or all of your starters?  If so, do you rest some or all for some or all of the game?  If you need to win to get into the playoffs, do your chances vaporize prior to your kickoff based on results from earlier games that day?  If you are out of the playoffs, do you play for pride(an overused battle cry)?  Or, do you mail it in?  Do you play for your favorite coaches job?  Do you play for your own job?  Does the franchise tank the game to improve their draft position?  Is it time to give that backup quarterback his chance?   Questions far outweigh answers.

All of those legit questions aside, let’s examine a few games and be dumb brave enough to take a stab at their outcomes.  If you bet real money and take advice from the guesses below, we suggest that you stop betting real money.  Or, at least tread very lightly in week 17.

Miami at Buffalo(-3.5)  – Here is the classic two teams playing for pride (read as “nothing”) game.  Miami fired their GM yesterday.  Does that mean their coach’s job is safe?   Oh, and why is Buffalo favored?  We guess it’s because they’re at their home stadium.  Home is also a place where they can get cozy by the fireplace to watch the playoffs.   For no good reason at all, take Miami plus the points.

Detroit at Green Bay(-8.0) – Detroit annually disappoints.  This team lived down to its expectations.  They’ve been mentally out for months and statistically eliminated for weeks.  Green Bay is in the unfamiliar position of playing out the string.  Are they playing to help Joe Philbin get the vacant HC job?  Doubtful.   Are they the better team?  No doubt.  When in doubt take more than a touchdown in any NFL game, anytime.  Except this week.  We’ll take GB to win the game and cover late somehow.

Jacksonville at Houston(-6.5) – Jacksonville imploded weeks ago.  However, they rose from the ashes last weekend.  Houston has a division championship on the line and playoff seeding(possibly) implications at stake.  Best of all Houston lost on the road in a close one last week.  This seems like one of the few games this week that is a good betting spot.  We’ll take Houston to win on the money line though it’s expensive at 3-1.  And we’ll take Houston to cover the 6.5 a well.

Carolina at New Orleans(-9.0) – New Orleans has already secured a bye week and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Carolina shut down weeks ago in the midst of a six game losing streak.  As a result, they shut down Cam Newton two weeks ago due to an ailing wing.  His backup is now hurt.  Enter third stringer Kyle Allen for his NFL debut.  Brees and most of his ailing offensive line might not play at all.  Enter Teddy Bridgewater for his Saints debut.  You get the picture?  Take Carolina plus nine in what will look like a final preseason game though we expect the Saints to win a fairly close one.  Call it 24-18 for grins.

Cincinnatti at Pittsburgh(-14.0) – This one is tricky.  Baltimore hosts the suddenly angry Cleveland Browns at the same time.  If Baltimore wins Pittsburgh is eliminated from the playoff chase.  Pittsburgh might be angry too after a hard fought, close loss to New Orleans last weekend.  Meanwhile we expect Cleveland to keep it close v. Baltimore with the Ravens winning on a late FG.  Pittsburgh never mails it in.  We expect them to score early and often and do a bit of scoreboard watching along the way.  It’s hard to spot 14 points in any NFL game.  We will.  Take Pittsburgh minus.

Good luck wagering in week 17.  You might be better off putting your money at risk in the stock market.  Sorry, too soon?

 

 

 

 

 

Ten Piece Nuggets-NFL

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Yummy.  The holiday food and sweets are all around.  Gaining weight(more) unfortunately has never been so easy.  Another food group heats up around Christmas and the New Year as well.  The NFL treats us to some wonderful nuggets as the regular season barrels to the  finish.  Enjoy them one at a time below.  And when you are done, please pass the pecan pie.

  1. The NFL’s oldest head coach, Pete Carroll, is 67.  He’ll be three years older and still leading the Seahawks in 2021 as he agreed to a three-year contract extension yesterday.  This comes a day after his team secured a wild card playoff berth last evening.  Carroll’s Seahawks have made the playoffs for the seventh time in his nine years at the helm.
  2. The New Orleans Saints secured the NFC home field advantage throughout the playoffs in a well contested, entertaining scrap with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Superdome.  Significant?  Very.  The Saints haven’t lost a playoff game in their Superdome home with Drew Brees executing what Sean Payton cooks up.  Ever.  In 2009, as the no. 1 seed they held serve at home, beat Indy in Miami, and hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
  3. Pittsburgh fought valiantly for 60 minutes and came up just short.  They went from being the leader in their division to currently being on the outside looking in at the playoffs.  This weekend they have to beat Cincinnati and hope that either a) Cleveland beats Baltimore, or b) Indianapolis and Tennessee somehow play to a tie.  Pitt is a tough team with a very good coach.  It’s hard to believe that they may be home for good after the holidays.
  4. Raise your hand if you thought Cleveland might be playing in a meaningful game in late December.  The Browns are 7-7-1.  A win would give them their first winning season since 2007.  It would also possibly give Pitt postseason life.  And last but not least, it would give Gregg Williams a nice page or two to add to his PowerPoint presentation as he tries to get the word interim removed from his current title of interim head coach of the Cleveland Browns.
  5. The Houston Texans lost to Philadelphia 32-30.  They also lost their hold on the no. 2 AFC playoff seed and with it a first round bye as a byproduct.  They actually even lost a chance to clinch the AFC South Division as surging Indy lurks oh so closely.  But, rest assured the Texans won when they drafted DeShaun Watson.  His brilliance almost took the Eagles down in their nest.  Watson dazzled the hard to please Philly crowd with 29-40 passing for 339 yards and two touchdowns.  He ran into the end zone for two more.  How he amassed those lofty stats was more impressive than those lofty stats themselves.  That Mahomes is getting national run is elementary.  But, Houston’s dear Watson isn’t far behind.
  6.  The MNF Raiders’ game might have been the last one at the Oakland Coliseum.  Viva Las Vegas.  Speaking of Vegas every road underdog in the NFL either won straight up or covered the spread afforded them.  Betting the NFL from week to week is crazier than having money in the stock market right now.  Ouch, that hurt.  That game versus the Broncos also brought down the curtain on yet another MNF season of broadcasts.  The NFL wants all games this coming weekend to conclude by Sunday to level the playoff playing field.  If only that would bring down the curtain on Jason Whiten’s announcing career.  Ouch, that hurt.
  7.  Quick quiz.  In how many of the last 16 NFL seasons have the New England Patriots won ten or more regular season games?  If you said 16 that would be correct.  Impressive.  Of course playing the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills a total of six times a year helps.  Of course so does having Tom Brady.  The next closest is Indy (thanks Peyton Manning) with 11.
  8. The Vegas Raiders and the Mistake by the Lake Browns have only one ten win season each in those same 16 years.  The NFL structures their league to provide plenty of help to those that cannot help themselves.  We detailed those thoughts recently.  It’s hard to be that bad for that long in the NFL.  These two teams have a lot in common over that time.  They both have or had bad ownership, bad draft picks, bad cap management, and a revolving door at the quarterback position.
  9. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t far ahead or behind depending on your viewpoint.  Sunday’s loss to America’s Team marked the seventh season in the last ten that the Bucs have lost ten or more. Jameis Winston’s rookie contract is up.  Will TB offer the available one year extension to it? This decision about one year has ramifications for many.  Perhaps a call to Nick Foles agent would help in the decision-making process.
  10.  Baltimore was once 4-5 six games ago.  Enter Lamar Jackson at QB.  The Ravens are 5-1 since.  The only loss in that span was in a very hostile Arrowhead Stadium.  Saturday night the Ravens traveled three time zones to the left coast and held the hot Chargers to a stone cold 10 points, winning by 12.  If you are looking for a dark horse, or a dark bird, to make a playoff run look no further than the Ravens.  They run the ball very well and defend the run very well.  That’s a winning January combination.

Is a scoop of homemade vanilla ice cream on top of the pecan pie a bit over the top?  Hmm.

 

Abby Took Down Vegas-The Epilogue

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Year one for Abby’s weekly column is now in the dog house till fall.  However, she will certainly show her head for a bowl game or two along the way when something gets her attention.

College football picking isn’t easy.   The smart money in Vegas (called the Sharps) focuses on a narrow window of analytics and doesn’t stray (Abby doesn’t like strays either).  If the betting line doesn’t meet their tight standards window they punt.

Abby takes a broader view when making her choices.  This can be more difficult.  That’s why it’s important for her to risk various amounts (bones) to weight average the risk.

For her inaugural journey she won 22 bets, lost 23, and tied one against the Vegas lines.  Importantly, she won 59 of 108 bones wagered.  That is a win percentage of 55%.  Each bone is $11 to win $10.  Thus, she finished plus $51 dollars on the year.  It’s won’t shut down The Strip, but it will afford a better grade of dog food than Kibbles & Bits.

Perhaps her hunch bets should have been part of the bones wagered.  The hunch bet finished year one with nine great wins versus only one loss.  I have a hunch that she won’t be able to repeat that best of show performance next year.

 She is wishing some of her favorite mascots a happy holiday and a win in their bowl games.  Abby hopes that you enjoy the early bowl games too.

Woof!