ACC

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 11

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

For the third time in ten weeks Abby had to pay the man.  When you lose 6 bones ($66) and win 4 ($40) you slowly run out of money unless you are the US government.

Luckily for Abby the year-to-date totals still look good, so she doesn’t need a paw out (aka handout).   Ten weeks deep her won-loss record is 37-27, the bones won are 55 v 38 surrendered.

We must give a special shoutout on her hunch bet.  She took  Army v Air Force under the thirty-seven points total.  The game went to overtime and the under still won the day.  The hunch stands tall like the soldiers that competed at 8-1 for the season.

  1. West Virginia at Kansas St -6 –K St at home is a significantly better team than on the road.  WV on the road is a significantly worse team than at home.  One bone.
  2.  Michigan at Penn St under 49 — This feels like a game that a late field goal wins it somewhere in the 20-17 range.  Woody Hayes didn’t like either of these teams but would like the three yards and a pile of dirt scrum.  One bone.
  3.  Notre Dame -5 1/2 at Virginia —  ND has had some closes finishes.  This one covers late, however.  Two bones.
  4. Oklahoma at Baylor under 62 — Abby’ll bite. This one almost seems too good.   Aranda will have them ready to defend the Okla O.   One bone.
  5.  NC State at Wake Forest -1 — Will Wake be hungover from the sting of the Tarheel come from behind victory? Maybe for a series or two.  That O can go.  One bone.
  6. Stanford + 12 at Oregon St —  Abby’ll bite again.  This line seems so out of whack that normally she would take the zig.  But 12 points and the Cardinal seems too juicy.  One bone.
  7. Mississippi St at Auburn -5 — Auburn went to College Station and got stuffed.  We smell an angry rebound and a close cover.  One bone.
  8. Texas A&M -2 at Ole Miss — A road favorite after a big home win in the SEC is dangerous.  A&M is a better team in the trenches than Ole Miss and the Black Bears (formerly Rebels) are banged up.  Two bones.

Arkansas travels to Death Valley to face LSU.  We’re sending one of our staff members to cover the game.  LSU is going to play two QB’s.  Arkansas likes to run the ball.  The total at 59 looks way too high.  The under seems like a sure bet.  Abby will take the over on another crazy hunch.

Woof!

Abby Picks, Year 4, Week 7

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Back in the late 70s, Reggie Jackson earned the moniker Mr. October for his assassin-like clutch playoff hitting.  A few(very few)Vegas watchers are beginning to wonder if Abby is on her way in the 20s to earning the nickname Ms. October for her assassin-like assault on the NCAA betting lines.

Another strong week brings the season she’s stacking up to 22 wins against 15 losses while winning 35 tasty bones and losing 18.  Her hunch bet lost last week, so that tally stands at 5-1.

Stay humble, we constantly remind her, as the Vegas Penthouse and the Vegas Outhouse accommodations are just one week’s reservations apart.

  1. Clemson -13 at Syracuse —  Abby’s been off of a down Clemson year.  But she thinks these Tigers get a dead cat bounce up north.  One bone.
  2.  Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech +5 1/2 —  This looks like a very live home dog.  The ML is tempting for a straight-up win as well, but give her the points.  One bone.
  3. Michigan St at Indiana +4 1/2 —  The Spartans have been playing winning football all year.  Indiana is a bit of a disappointment vs expectations.  Saturday the script flips.  One bone.
  4. Army at Wisconsin -14 — Abby barked for Army three weeks in a row.  She’s fading them now.  Whisky did her right a week ago, and she’s back for another round.  Two bones.
  5. Arizona St pick at Utah — What goes up and down more than a yoyo?  A Sun Devil.  Abby likes the Utes at home.  One bone.
  6. Oklahoma St at Texas -4 — The loser of last week’s epic Red River Showdown throws down.  Abby likes this one so much it scares her a bit.  Three bones.
  7. TCU at Oklahoma -13 1/2 — The winner of last week’s epic Red River Showdown might be in for a letdown.  A back door (or doggy door) cover is possible.  Nonetheless, Okie can score points in bunches.  One bone.

Mississippi can score points in bunches, too.  But the over/under at Rocky Top is 83 1/2.  On a strong hunch, Abby likes the under.  She also likes the Tennessee blue tick hound.

Four chalks, one pick, and two dogs.  It’s a bit against the norm.

Woof.

 

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Yr 3, Wk 11

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

As the season coughs it’s way to the last few weeks, Abby’s picks have been a bit under the weather.  A nice parlay landed and dulled the pain of some close (but they all count) losses.  Note to doggie- Notre Dame is legit and Texas is dog $%!#.

For the season the W/L total dipped below .500 for the first time at 26-28-1.  The bones are still cashing though at a respectable 45-38.  You can take bones to the bank or bury them in the backyard.  The hunch bet which picked opposite all of the above was a hedge bet winner and stands at 3-4.

The picks below will start a gambling December to remember.

  1. ULL +3 at Appalacian St. –  Rumors swirl that Coach Billy Napier will be headed to (pick one) Vandy, South Carolina, Texas, or another step up of his choosing in 2021.  But, for now, he keeps his Cajuns ragin.  It’s a Friday night special.  One bone.
  2. Vanderbilt at Georgia over 54 – Last week the Commodores had a mason for a coach, a female for a kicker, and an offensive offense.  The kicker barely kicked and the coach was kicked out of the door.  The offense still stinks.  The ship is sinking.  Anchor down.  Dead cat bounce.  Abby hates cats but loves UGA.  Two bones.
  3. Nebraska +3 at Purdue – Nebraska has one win this year.  It came versus a winless Penn St. Tomorrow they’ll have two for no good reason at all.  One bone.
  4. Florida at Tennessee + 17 and over 63 –  The double-digit dog in this series almost always covers.  It’s at Tennessee.  Florida is due for a 40 plus point game.  Tenn needs to score 27 and the parlay cashes.   One bone to win three bones.
  5. Indiana at Wisconsin -14 – The Badgers crashed into the wall on the third turn of the season.  They annually do so.  Abby predicts a focused effort against a good Indiana team.  This line seems quite high.  Therefore, we see a zig on a zag cover. Two bones.
  6. Texas A&M at Auburn + 6 and 1/2 – The Aggie cry for inclusion (a popular word these days) in the playoffs was dented by a bland performance last week.  This week the conversation ends.  Abby sees a straight-up win for Auburn as a real possibility.  One bone.

The hunch bet has a chance to get its year-long record to .500 this week.  Texas (-7) has no business being a seven-point pick over Kansas St much less almost anybody, do they?  Remember the note to doggie above?  Abby says Hook Em anyway.

Woof!

Abby Takes Down Vegas, Year 3, Week 2

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Week one predicting isn’t for everyone.

Abby isn’t everyone.  She pawed her way to four bones while giving back two.  Her record was 2-2-1 (Louisville pushed the bet) and her hunch didn’t punch the ticket.  That’s plenty good enough in a week that LSU and Oklahoma went down in flames while others played flat (Texas A&M) and others barely escaped (Texas).

“Enough already, on to week two,” Abby barks.

  1.  Boston College +14 1/2 v. North Carolina- Old Mack Brown has the Tarheels on the right path.  But we’ll take a determined BC at home to cover late.  One bone.
  2. Duke +12 v Virginia Tech- Ditto the above.  One bone.
  3. Baylor at West Virginia +3 –  Dave Aranda’s D will hold WVA down below their usual point production.  But, but we expect the Mountaineers to cover and in fact win outright at home.  One bone.
  4. Ole Miss @ Kentucky -6 – The Rebels defense is offensive.  Kentucky is clearly the better team and angry coming home from a road spanking at Auburn.  Three bones.
  5. Auburn @ Georgia -7 – Abby loves Bulldogs.  Auburn will give it their all and keep it close for three quarters, but Georgia covers late.  Two bones.
  6.  Arkansas @ Mississippi St. -16.5 – Abby loves Bulldogs.  We could see a letdown after the LSU beatdown.  But Arkansas can’t score enough to keep it inside of three scores.  One bone.

The world awakens this AM to the news that President Trump has the coronavirus.  He’s 74.  He’ll beat it like a drum.  He’s nothing if not a fighter.  Take over 74 as the hunch bet lock of the year.  Get well soon, Mr. President.

There it is.  Abby has four home teams, three underdogs, two bulldogs, and one president while chasing nine bones.

Woof!

 

2020 NCAA Football. Kickoff or Punt?

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

Although it’s never really the offseason anymore, the NCAA football programs usually enter the offseason filled with questions that need answers.  This offseason was no different on the questions part.

Schools are out for summer and plenty of the questions remain.  A few that were answered are subject to change.  That is life in 2020 as the biggest questions still loom and the answers remain unknown.

Will colleges play football in the fall?  Will the NCAA allow it?  Will the virus allow it?

We offer eight questions below and offer more than eight answers.  It’s always good to hedge your football bets.

  1.  Will the NCAA dictate if and when the schools, teams, and conferences can kickoff.  No.  They’ll give generalized recommendations, but NCAA President Mark Emmert already stated that there will be no uniform start date this fall suggested by the for now governing body.
  2. Why did he say that?  He said that because he is smart enough to know that there isn’t one answer across hundreds of schools and fifty states.  He is also smart enough to know that the Power 5 conferences are watching carefully.
  3. Why are the Power 5 conferences watching carefully?  Well, they rule the roost.  If ever there was a time that they might break free of the NCAA and form their own governing body this might be it.  Football is BIG money for the BIG 12, BIG 10, PAC 12, ACC, and SEC.  It supports (with a bit of help from basketball and rarely baseball) all other sports teams, both male and female, that are revenue drains not adds.  Some schools subsidize their academic costs with football generated revenue.  If ever there was a year when revenue is needed, 2020 is it.  If you take the air out of football you’ll take the air out of the entire 2020-21 academic sports calendar year.
  4. So, will college football be played in the fall?  No, yes, and maybe.  “No” is the answer if the enemy spikes in the next four weeks to the point where wisdom and prevailing sentiment dictate otherwise.  “Yes” is the answer as of today for some schools in some states that crave it, depend on it, and have state government support for it.  That’s first and foremost the SEC.  Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana are opening back up for business in an aggressive manner v. many other states.  LSU announced its intention to have classes on campus as early as summer session number 2 in July.  “Maybe” is the answer for many schools as of now as they take a wait and see approach.
  5. What if half suit up and half don’t?  Follow the money.  Teams will reschedule opponents to the level they can to fill the fall calendar, and collect TV money to fill the bank accounts.
  6. Would the SEC go it alone and schedule a full slate of all in conference games?  It’s only a guess, but our answer is yes.  Why?  Aren’t you listening?  Follow the money.  If people are watching the NFL Draft, the MMA, and South Korean baseball (yes they are) in record numbers, can you imagine the ratings for SEC slugfests?  America is craving live sports.
  7. Could the season start late?  Sure.  It will have to if summer workouts and especially fall camps cannot start on time.  The risk of injury due to a lack of conditioning is real.  The fallout would be quite negative.  Sure.  The virus might have a thing or two to say about the date as well.  Sure.  The reconfigured schedule possibility could include fewer, and later in the fall games as an option.
  8. Would colleges field teams to play if they don’t have on-campus classes?  This one seems highly doubtful.  The criticism would be fast, furious, and ongoing.  The academic elite crowd already looks down their nose and around their reading glasses at the double standard of academics and big-time sports.  You can’t decide to virtually teach for social distancing safety and actually have sweat, blood, and tears flying on a field, can you?  The optic would be a difficult one to sell.

Take limited fans in the stands for $150 to win $100.

Take major college football being played for $100 to win $125.

Disappointment From Coast to Coast, Part Two

Posted on by thependulumswings staff

The NCAA Football regular season ink is dry, and the dye is mostly cast.

For many teams the season’s promise was bright as summer turned to fall.  Now, as fall turns to winter, that promise has turned darker than late afternoon post the change in daylight savings time.  You set you clocks back while some team’s performance set their programs back.

So who are they?  Who are those teams that fell significantly short of meeting the expectations of their followers?  Disappointment can and does come from a few angles.  The program’s history builds in annual minimum standards.  A new, and maybe highly paid, coach can further that.  A good recruiting year or three can further that.  Some teams are bad but somewhat expected.  Some are disappointing and somewhat unexpected.

In part one we selected Washington out of the PAC 12 as the most disappointing.  Evidently, head coach Chris Petersen was disappointed as well.  He stepped down yesterday citing a need to “recharge.”  Today we continue with part two of our series scanning each of the Power 5 conferences to select the most disappointing performance.

 

ACC

Most Disappointing

Usually in year two of a new coaching staff’s run the ascent begins.  After all, you have two years of your own recruits.  You may have run off a few that you don’t want.  The transfer portal can accelerate your personnel transformation.  You have instilled the weight and nutritional training that you want to shape your team.  Your culture is, or better be, in place.  Your staff has had two springs and two falls to “coach em up.”  If it’s a big time program money/budgets are generous to accomplish all of the above.

“Usually” is the key word.  For Florida St. the 2018 and first half of the 2019 season was all the boosters, alumni, AD, and school administration needed to see “usually” would not turn into their reality.  Willie Taggert, nine games into year two and 21 games in in total was fired.  Several losses in 2019 were downright embarrassing.  A season opening home loss to Boise St. was followed by a one point win over Louisiana Monroe.  Clemson and Miami both worked FSU over.   Discipline lacked and class attendance declined. And, then it was over.

Taggert, 43, had ascended rapidly in the head coaching world.  Western Kentucky’s success lead to USF’s turnaround which led to a major jump to the helm at Oregon.  One year in at Oregon, Taggert jumped ship to coach the Seminoles.

Florida St. missed the bowl season in 2018 (the first time since 1981), and won six and lost six in 2019.  That’s only good enough for a tie for fourth in the Atlantic side of the ACC. They also will be buying out Coach Taggert for a smooth 20 million per the contract that he didn’t finally sign, but will expect to collect from.  Taggert finished 9-12 in his 1 3/4 years there. His ACC record was a miserable 6-9 in a conference that isn’t from top to bottom that feared.  The team was 4-5 when he was let go.

Clemson is the standard that FSU aspires to compete with.  When you finish behind Louisville and Wake Forest, and tied with Boston College, Clemson is more than a few hydration bottles ahead of you.

Florida St. is easily the most disappointing team in the ACC.

Also Considered

FSU took the prize and second place wasn’t close.  However, the continued noise emanating from South Beach isn’t due to partying about the Miami Hurricanes football team.  They finished 6-6 as well.  They began 2018 ranked 3rd in the U.S.  They end 2019 as an afterthought in the ACC.  A parade of coaches have come and gone since that program has been relevant on the national stage.

Syracuse, finishing 5-7, also underwhelmed.  The Orangemen were upstarts for two straight years registering some nice upsets along the way.  This year was a step backwards.