Yesterday CNN ran a story that we feel has not gotten near enough attention. For our sake, we hope it isn’t as Donald Trump labels it, “fake news.”
We quote CNN. “373 employees and contract workers at Triumph Foods in Buchanan County, Missouri, have tested positive for coronavirus. All of them were asymptomatic, according to a press release from the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services.”
Testing at the plant began last week with results coming in over the past few days, the release from DHSS said. As of April 30, at least 1,500 had been tested, a previous release said. A first test a week earlier of 707 of the now nearly 1500 resulted in 92 asymptomatic positives.
So what does this all mean? We hesitate to speculate as there are no health care professionals on BBR’s burgeoning staff, but we will anyway. The ball bounces a bit below, but stay with it.
1. In a week’s time the positives went from 92 of 707 to now 373 of 1500. That’s a pretty aggressive acceleration.
2. Yet every one of them, we repeat, EVERYONE of them, are asymptomatic.
3. This almost seems impossible. 373 people of various ages, races, gender, and health conditions, all living near each other are positive asymptomatic. Unless it isn’t impossible. And, let’s assume for a minute that it isn’t.
4. If you believe the CDC’s
RO, (pronounced
r naught) a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is for Coronavirus, then you can buy into the rapid spread in a contaminated closed environment where many come together. It’s unfortunately why nursing homes and hospitals are incubators for it.
5. So, how many other environments that are similar have had a similar spread? We won’t know that of course until tests are repeatedly and readily available.
6. But, strong logic would make an argument that its more than a few and likely way more than a few.
7. So, how many Americans are positive and were asymptomatic in the past or present? As stated above, we won’t know that of course until tests are repeatedly and readily available.
8. So, now go back to the first documented case to hit American soil. On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever tested positive. He wasn’t asymptomatic. But how many before him were? We’ll never know.
9. But if 373 and counting can all hand it off to one another asymptomatically, how many handed it off prior to the above positive symptomatic case? We’ll never know.
10. Which begs the question? How many people in America today are positive? If you buy into the snowball downhill theory loosely outlined above it could be many. It could be many as in tens of millions. Are we speculating? Yep. That makes us almost as accurate as the experts it sadly seems.
Dr. Deborah Birx, the U.S. coronavirus response coordinator, dropped the following comment on Fox News on Sunday. “I think we underestimated very early on the number of asymptomatic cases,” Dr.
Birx said. “And I think we’re really beginning to understand there are people that get infected that those symptoms are so low-grade that they don’t even know that they’re infected.”
So if you’ve bought in this far, we have but one more small leap of faith to ask. How immune then is the herd at this point? Probably way more than we realize.
Nearly 70,000 deaths in the U.S. is nearly 70,000 deaths too many, make no mistake. Of course, we hope that the CDC has made no mistake when counting as well.
The country is “reopening.” If the asymptomatic headcount is way higher than thought maybe the “second wave” or “next spike” will be far less than even the most optimistic projections.
Let’s hope so.
